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CO-Gov, CO-Sen: Gubernatorial Race Close As Maes Evaporates

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 1:00 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (10/21-23, likely voters, 9/30-10/2 in parens):

John Hickenlooper (D): 47 (47)
Dan Maes (R): 5 (13)
Tom Tancredo (C): 44 (33)
Undecided 4 (7)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 47 (46)
Ken Buck (R): 47 (45)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Wow, here's one more case this cycle of conventional wisdom about a race changing on a dime. John Hickenlooper spent several months looking like a near shoo-in for Governor, thanks to the split ultra-conservative field between Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo. The only thing that could change that would be one of them dropping out, or utterly collapsing... and it looks like that's exactly what's happening with Maes, who's become this cycle's Dede Scozzafava (without all the moderate apostasy, of course), polling at all of 5% with 8/75 favorables. Tancredo has somehow rehabilitated his image too, taking his old 27/50 faves from August and turning them into a positive 45/44, and even pulling into a 46-44 lead among independents.

Hard to believe the super-tight Senate race would ever play second fiddle here, but it's seen very little movement, with Bennet falling from a 1-pt lead to a tie, all boiling down to float within the margin of error. This is one of those Senate races like Illinois where it's really a question of who's less disliked: Bennet (40/51) or Buck (44/49)?

For comparison purposes, it's worth taking a look at the SurveyUSA poll that came out this weekend from an overlapping timeframe (10/19-21). They really don't see the same thing happening in the gubernatorial race (they see Hickenlooper up 46-34-15). But interestingly, they're moving into a convergence with PPP on the Senate race that it's a flat-out tie (where PPP had tended to be one of the most Bennet-friendly pollsters before, while SUSA last saw this as a 5-pt Buck lead). I'd been under the impression (as seen here by SUSA) that the last-minute momentum in the Senate race was with Bennet (probably thanks mostly to the "buyer's remorse" problem for Buck), so I'm surprised to see him not move up in PPP, but this might suggest they were overstating his support the last couple times.
Crisitunity :: CO-Gov, CO-Sen: Gubernatorial Race Close As Maes Evaporates
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CO-Gov, CO-Sen: Gubernatorial Race Close As Maes Evaporates | 57 comments
Hispanics
How does tom tancredo get 43% with hispanics?
As with most polls
The top lines are more accurate than the crosstabs.  Yet 43% seems like a stretch, I could maybe believe 20%...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I don't know
Probably wrong to assume that all Hispanics are pro-immigration, however.  Particularly in Colorado, where some of the Hispanics have been there since the 17th century or so.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
i don't think it's so much that hispanics would be against tanc b/c they're "pro-immigration"
as much as they're anti "the guy who blames you and people who look like you for everything bad that's ever happened or will ever happen EVER!!1!!!!1"  a person can only blame a race so much before they just turn on him and possibly his party, regardless of policy positions.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
It didn't surprise me to see Bush do so well with Hispanics, but I'd be astonished to see Tancredo do nearly as well.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
This is a weekend poll
SUSA was weekday. Different enough universes to get these results. Harder to get young and Latino voters on phone on weekend, leading to tiny raw samples and strange results once weighted. Talked to people close to Hick and their internals are close to SUSA. Not worried.
Hick pulled up huge leads over the weekend
Thursday Night: Tancredo leads (+6)
Friday Morning/Night: Hickenlooper leads (+18 morning, +1 evening)
Saturday Morning/Night: Hickenlooper leads (+10 morning, +25 afternoon)

So really... the weekend polling didn't do anything to hurt Hickenlooper.

[ Parent ]
To be only up three
Means they must have reached far more people Thursday. Also suggests Jensen should be careful before jumping the gun on his Tweets.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
But that makes the sample suspect in a wholly different way. This is essentially a one day poll then ... by my calculation they reached almost 80% of their sample on Thurs night.  
[ Parent ]
That's how they work...
Day's 2 and 3 are always for callbacks on the original sample they tried reaching on day 1 but were not home or did not answer.
[ Parent ]
Same for the senate race
First day was Buck up big then two big days for Bennet. Where were the Dems on Thursday?
[ Parent ]
I know.
   Haven't you ever heard of Thirsty Thursday?

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Not quite...
See PPP's Question #18 in the .pdf file linked at the top of the diary.

Thursday night 53%
Friday morning 19%
Friday night 11%
Saturday morning 10%
Saturday afternoon 7%

[ Parent ]
^^^^^^THIS! Everyone PLEASE READ ColoDem's comment! I think it's important...
...to realize that Hick et al. are making decisions based on their OWN polling, not on Rassy or PPP or Magellan.

I respect public polling by and large, but it's an important bit of info that our candidate's private numbers are not showing this tightness.

And whatever happens, we ought to remember this on election night when the returns come in.  This is good information on who's good and who's not in polling, when polls diverge.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Hick uninspiring..
I always feared this would happen. Hicks numbers seem stagnant and the inability to get over 50% all through the election was an omen that he was only ahead b/c of the split vote. Unfortunately it is now looking more and more likely that Tancredo will win this race b/c of Hicks lackluster and uninspiring campaign.  
The gov numbers are scary. I am wondering if casual
voters know how racist Tancredo is. If Hick is running a positive campaign and Maes is broke, I am guessing no one is attacking Tancredo.

It would be nice just once this cycle to have CW change on a dime in favor of the Dems. Just once.

Do they need to know something?
Maes is reaaly broke and Tankredo is a rather successful Republican politician in Colorado. For many people there it's he, who is real Republican in the race, while Maes is... well, something between idiot and aberration. Colorado is a "purple state", so it's not surprising that with Maes going to abyss his votes go to Tankredo and he polls almost 50-50... Especially (once agin) - this year
[ Parent ]
They need to know Tarcendo is an insane bigot
I think that would have an impact on younger/minority voters. If people think he's the real Republican, that says a lot about that party.
[ Parent ]
May be
But i already met with some interesting phenomena: for example - legal immigrants, for example (and that include Hispanics a. o.) are often strongly dislike "iilegal" ones. So, i am not so surprized to see Tancredo having, for example, substantial suuport among Hispanics, many of which are absolutely not "enamored" to see new "competitors" for rather scarce jobs. The same with part of youth, for whom jobs are frequently a problem too. And so on...

Yes the Republican party is (with rare exceptions) strongly ideologically conservative now. With 40-42% of Americans calling themselves a "conservative" now they can "afford" that to the greater degree then Democrats with only 20-22% calling themselves "liberals". With such numbers Democrats need much more support from the "center" (and they got it in 2006 and 2008, but not neccessarily in 2010) then Republicans... That's present day reality...

[ Parent ]
Yup, I wonder why Rs don't cite Cesar Chavez
Chavez's record on immigration is at best mixed.

However, Tancredo's appeal is to me clearly racist, so such levels of support, is either a sign of a rogue poll or suggests poor messaging by Hink.

[ Parent ]
They have plenty support from the center
60-40 or so in most polls. The problem is losing independents 60-40 and far fewer moderates and liberals voting in comparison to conservatives.
[ Parent ]
60-40 isn't "plenty", especially for year as this
It seemed to me that center was at last 75-25 Democratic in 2006 and 2008. And most Indies "belong to the center" (statistically): i can state this both as Indie and as "slightly left-of-center man".. And, yes, many Indies who were actively pro-Democratic even 2 years ago, either don't want to vote this time, or will, as a protest, vote Republican - i know such people even in my "extended family". Despite low esteem for Republicans among them.
[ Parent ]
Then why in state after state
Has the needle hardly moved with moderates when indies have turned completely the other way? The answer is, although many indies are indeed moderates, they are mostly a hotch potch of ideological persuasion. One of the biggest myths in politics is the idea that independent equals centrist. Their most common trait seems to be to oppose whoever is in power at any given time.  
[ Parent ]
That's true to some extent
By my "extended family" is, mostly, centrist, as i am, and, believe me, many are mad as hell on Democrats simply as "power that be". And, i repeat, while they are not enamoured by Republicans, Democratic candidates will get very few votes from them this year. It was much different in 2008 with lot of "pro-Obama" enthusiasm
[ Parent ]
Let's count
According to Gallup about 21% of US people call themselves "liberals", while 42% - conservatives. That leaves 37% for "moderates". If we suppose for simplicity that all 21 "liberals" vote Democratic, and vast majority of conservatives (say 38-4) vote Republican (there are some "yellow dog" relatively conservative Democrats still) - then even to get 50-50 break you need 25-12 split among moderates, i.e - better then 2:1. In 2008 there was more then that, this year - not.  
[ Parent ]
Gallup is wrong. VERY wrong. Look at exit polls and you'll see...
...a pretty consistent turnout model of moderates in the 40s, conservatives in the 30s, and liberals orbiting 20.  We're often talking a ballpark of 45M-35C-20L in exit polling.

Gallup's polling has basically flipped conservatives and moderates all cycle, and I suspect that has a lot to do also with their inflated GOP generic ballot edge.  There are substantially more moderates and substantially fewer conservatives in the real electorate than Gallup's numbers show.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And liberal is such a loaded word
If you ask people whether they consider themselves relatively progressive, pro-consumer and pro-labor, you get a much larger proportion of the population basically self-identify as 'liberal'.
[ Parent ]
Good. Let's count again.
L: 20D
C: 31R - 4D (i am probably, to generous, but difference between 31-4 and 32-3 isn't great)
M: for 50-50: 26D-19R

Then it's really - the lowest ceiling among moderates for Democrats to have 50-50 break is about 58% of moderates. Is there 60 now as some state??? Well, may be, but i doubt - the combination of depression among some and anger among other seems strong to me.

[ Parent ]
I think party ID is (generally) a better measure
In part (as others said in different ways), a significant group of "moderates" are actually loyal Ds. (They call themselves "moderate" because they fear the "liberal" label.)

Sure party ID has its own issues, especially in those areas that vote D in local races but R in national races. But those states can (mostly) be identified.

[ Parent ]
Not sure
Louisiana, if i remeber correctly, still has rather strong Democratic registration. Some other Southern states - too. But they don't vote according "party lines" .And so on.
[ Parent ]
But Tancredo also
attacks legal immigration as destroying the culture. One good ad full of clips of Tancredo at his most hateful could have fixed this problem...
[ Parent ]
Here i agree 100%. That MUST be done

[ Parent ]
I posted this in the Morning Digest
I think that Gov. Tancredo would do more harm than good long-term to the state GOP because of his anti-immigrant rhetoric. The best long-term outcome for the GOP in this election might be Hickenlooper winning the governor's race while Republicans take over either the State Senate (where they need 4 seats) or House (6 seats) to ensure divided control of government for the next 2 years.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
That's not realistic
Looking at the state senate seats up this year, and state house, the competitive districts aren't up, there aren't enough targets for them to sweep. Most of the Democrats toughest districts are 08 ones.  
[ Parent ]
Isn't the entire House up this year?
If it is, then there should be 6 seats in play. Republicans held that chamber for a while so there must be some swingy seats with incumbent Democrats.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Sorry, you're right
But 6 seats is a big stretch. Most of these Democrats in marginal districts are 2-3 term incumbents running tight campaigns.

In the state senate the only possible races are John Morse in Colorado Springs, (he represents the Democratic leaning, diverse section with a large population of hispanics), and Lois Tochtrop in Thornton.

Maryanne Keller could be vulnerable on paper, but I also don't see that. Democrats vulnerable, marginal seats are all on the 2008 cycle.  

[ Parent ]
Again I refer to my previous comment...
about Hickenlooper being Dukakis re-born here...

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I will say that there is still a good chance that Hick will win, notwithstanding this wanker of a campaign. I mean, how the fuck do you even get tied with a nut like Tancredo in ANY election? I mean, if this was AK, WY or ID, maybe, but most certainly NOT Colorado.

If there is anything this 2010 election cycle has shown me so far is that while we have a better message overall and our policies end up helping the country, we need to improve in the candidate recruitment department, particularly avoid having default feel of the moment lazy paper-fine but street-foolish candidates taking up the Dem nomination.

IN short, we need more assasins and black widows, not pussyfooting lazy wussies who screw up 20 point leads against nonentities.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Banked votes
Hick has 50% so that could yet make the difference. But promising to run a positive campaign was a mistake. It should be SOP to do both.
[ Parent ]
candidate recruitment
Can you really blame bad candidate recruitment?  Hick was at the top of all lists to be the next big thing in Colorado.  He was supposed to be the strongest guy in the state.  Personally, I think you have to blame his campaign rather than the people who recruited him, unless there was evidence of this "laziness" in his Mayoral campaigns, of which there is no indication.  Looks like he got caught off guard.  That's not a "recruitment" fail whatsoever.
[ Parent ]
I do consider it candidate recruitment fail...
though granted, I have the advantage of hindsight, but we probably jumped in his favor too soon without kicking the tires and checking under the hood.

I used to think bad campaigns in a gimmie election were almost always the result of a bad campaign team, but I think a lot has to be said about the candidate too. S/he is the "decider" of which ads go out and what he says out on the trail. The fact that one of Hick's first ads was getting into the shower with his clothes on to protest negative campaigning should have been a 50 ft red flag. Who in thier right fucking minds shoots an opening ad like in this day and age?

Also, what did he do with all the crossover endorsements and the money he got considering no person in their right mind will give money to or publicly endorse Maes or Tancredo? If a lot of it was wasted on over paid egocentric campaign managers, then he's an even poorer manager of people.

Sure we could not have known that after Ritter dropped out and McInnis cratered that Hick would be in a tight race. But the fact is that any candidate should know that no election, particularly in a newly purple state like CO, should be taken for granted by anyone. I mean, haven't we learned a damn thing from the Clinton years??

All elections are about choices and as a Dem, if you are unknown and/or you are facing headwinds or even a generic R electorate (something we all knew after June 2009), you must (a) raise a ton of $$ (which Hick did)(b) define yourself before the other side does (assuming the other side has the resources to do this) and (c) contrast yourself with the opposition (something he clearly didn't do). This means you've done your homework and have left nothing to chance, except things you can never control.

Campaigns matter and compared to the current crop of the GOP who are hell bent on ideology instead of legislation, Dems should be smashing their heads into brickwalls(figure of speech; no violence needed though I secretly play it in my mind when I see some of them on Foxnews). But we can't do that if we have cross-legged pinstriped nerds instead of balls-out jacket off street fighters running our races.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
You've made a case for campaign failure, not recruitment failure
Tell me, who would have been a better candidate?
[ Parent ]
Admittedly, it's Georgia...
...But Roy Barnes is going to get pasted by a walking ethics investigation. It's a terrible year, and Hickenlooper chose a campaign strategy that was predicated on the Republican candidate getting a double-digit vote. That's hardly insane.
[ Parent ]
Right,
and when (not if), Hick wins, his strategy will once again be cast in a different light.
[ Parent ]
wonder how the polls would look
if they included the Libertarian, just to see if Tancredo is/isn't a vote sink for NOTA voters, some of which will flee to Libertarians and other Independents.

Also, I know Hickenlooper would need to go against his nice guy rep to do the following, but he should. If the Republicans pass something to get their major party status back for 2012, Hickenlooper should veto it. They could make major party status apply for getting any statewide candidate over 20% or something, but not retroactively.

Hickenlooper is worse than Feingold...
In his unwillingness to attack.  Hickenlooper must think he's running for mayor of Mayberry or something.

Hickenlooper's number is around the same in SurveyUSA as it is here
It's Tancredo's and Maes' numbers that are different. It all depends on how much Tancredo peels off from Maes, because Hickenlooper's number seems stable. Hickenlooper still has a lead, so he'll be fine.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
It would be helpful if Maes could attack Tancredo
a bit, but I don't think he has the money to air any ads.
[ Parent ]
After Jensen's tweet the other day....
...there he said it would be "competitive", I was worried that meant hick was actually losing ('cos PPP likes to do that a lot in their previews).  This would probably be the worst case scenario--Maes at 5%, so if Hick is still leading after that, then, he should be ok, I would hope!
He was
Tancredo up 6 after the first day. See upthread.
[ Parent ]
Illinois Dems gave 6% to the ticket of
No Candidate/LaRouchie in 1986. Maes should get slightly under that in a no-straight ticket state in a Republican year.

Old habits are tough to break for some people.

If Colorado had straight ticket, Tancredo would lose enough votes to be a guaranteed loser while the ACP candidates would get enough votes to mess with downticket Republicans.

Can Maes go lower than 5?

[ Parent ]
seems like a hard thing to envision
there has to a basement for any major party candidate to get in an election
[ Parent ]
He may even do better
Lots of his ilk did in Republican primaries. Seemingly out of nowhere. Anyway, I'll change my prediction to 50-45-5 Hickenlooper for now.
[ Parent ]
Undecideds in CO-Sen
This PPP poll says that most of the remaining undecideds are Republicans, but I find these fine crosstabs vary a lot. I wouldn't be surprised if PPP differs from that SurveyUSA poll of a couple days ago on this point. Yet, I can't find the crosstabs in the SurveyUSA poll.  
People are panicking here
What's the deal? This is effectively the worse case scenario for Maes. The only thing I'm seeing is that Hickenlooper needs to hit Tancredo hard and negative in the end stretch. He really doesn't have to do anything other than quote him speaking to drive his unfavorables back up to 55-58%.
Hickenlooper will never go negative.
That's why it's closing and he could lose.  
[ Parent ]
All it would take
is one spot from the DGA. I don't know why people are freaking out about this. A good portion of the vote has already been banked, making the hurdle for Tancredo pretty high, in my opinion.
[ Parent ]
CO-Gov, CO-Sen: Gubernatorial Race Close As Maes Evaporates | 57 comments

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