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PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Keystone Kollapse

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 1:26 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (10/13-17, likely voters, 9/15-19 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 46 (43)
Pat Toomey (R): 48 (50)
Undecided 5 (7)
(MoE: ±3%)

While Quinnipiac doesn't quite give us the hat trick of three polls in a row with a lead for Joe Sestak, it does show, similarly, significant movement in Sestak's direction, not just from the undecided column but also directly out of Toomey's share. While Quinnipiac doesn't give registration or 2008-vote numbers, Barack Obama's approval is 44/53, showing this is a similar-looking sample to Tuesday's PPP poll. As with that poll, the difference is Dems finally consolidating around Sestak, who's 89-7 among Dems. (Toomey leads 56-35 among indies here, which explains their slightly more favorable overall result for Toomey.) Also, worth noting: Quinnipiac's survey period was ending at the same time that PPP's was beginning (see below), so there may have been slightly less Sestak surge for them to measure at that point.

Public Policy Polling (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-16 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 46 (35)
Tom Corbett (R): 48 (48)
Undecided 6 (17)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

The gubernatorial race has gotten short shrift all cycle long -- partly because it hasn't been very interesting -- and even as it's been clear Sestak was making his move, there wasn't any matching movement in the gubernatorial race... until now. Here's the gubernatorial half of the PPP sample, and it's the best result Dan Onorato has gotten all cycle. Republican Tom Corbett still has better favorables (47/34 to Onorato's 45/39), and he hasn't lost any ground in the toplines, but Onorato has closed the gap among indies (to the same 48-46 Corbett lead as the toplines).

Muhlenberg (10/17-20, likely voters, 10/16-19 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 43 (44)
Pat Toomey (R): 43 (41)
Undecided 14 (15)

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (40)
Tom Corbett (R): 49 (47)
Undecided 12 (14)
(MoE: ±5%)

Muhlenberg's daily tracking poll splits the difference: they keep seeing a tossup race between Sestak and Toomey (although the tie is down a few points from yesterday's results), but not seeing what PPP is seeing regarding the gubernatorial race.
Crisitunity :: PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Keystone Kollapse
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PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Keystone Kollapse | 52 comments
Have we seen any polling in PA-06 lately?
With PA-Sen, PA-Gov, and PA-07 moving toward us, I can't help but think that Gerlach might be sweating at least somewhat.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
not yet
I live in the 6th, and the race is hardly getting any coverage here in the Chester County portion. There were small articles in the Daily Local and Pottstown Mercury last week when they were debating, but that's about it. I would think Gerlach has to be sweating, because this is the first time in the last 3 elections that I remember IE's coming in to prop him up (Association of Realtors or something like that). Would love to see a poll other than Gerlach's token 30 point lead internal that comes out a month before the election every cycle. Manan's the best candidate they have put against him yet.
[ Parent ]
Monmouth today
[ Parent ]
bah
humbug
[ Parent ]
Have to think
that PPP Gov is somewhat of an outlier. It's not really being supported by any other polling.

Senate is now clearly a tossup. Would be interesting to see where these Dems that are coming home are from, if its Philly/burbs or Western PA. That fact could determine a lot of House races.  

One would think the Dems coming home would be from the Philly area.
Sestak is, afterall, from that area, and that might help explain Lentz's surge.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm sure its Philly burbs
Western PA has been trending right for a long time, eastern PA the other way.

Sestak is a suburban Philly politician and his campaigns appeal has been towards moderates in that region - emphasizing Toomey's extremism.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
+1 Sestak is an outlier?
    -2 and +1 are small differences.  Rasmussen's Toomey +10, on the other hand...

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Oh, sorry.
   You were talking about the governor's race.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I think
he means onorato -2

18, Dem, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Quinnpiac.
   The poll has Toomey winning independents 3:2.  Of course, quinnipiac did not release the partisan breakdown of the respondents.  My guess is that they are predicting an even percentage of Republicans and Democrats as a total of the electorate.

24, Male, GA-05
Very strange age distribution
The Muhlenburg poll shows that only 10% of likely voters are 18-39 whereas in 2008, they made up about 40% of actual voters, and in 2006 they made up about 30%. I know there is expected to be an enthusiasm gap, but will the proportion of the under 40 vote really go down three or four-fold?  
I wonder
how much of the drop off in voting from 18-34-year-olds will be concentrated in certain states. I could easily see the drop off being far larger in New York and Michigan compared to Pennsylvania and California.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Revenge of the 1936 Literary Digest Survey?
Maybe they are assuming people without landlines don't vote? This tiny percentage of young voters sounds a lot like the 1936 Literary Digest survey, in which they sent out millions of postcards to people all over the country based on auto registration and phone books, and the returned cards said Alf Landon, in a landslide.  One possible explanation is that nearly all voters without phones or cars (a large fraction in 1936) were FDR supporters.
[ Parent ]
It's a ridiculous sample
It's a +4 McCain sample, compared to +10 Obama in 2008.  Fourteen points different.

In the other thread, we know the actual absentee request gap is *+FOUR* points Republican.  

This sample is off by a full ten points of the best measure of reality we have.

Since Sestak is running ahead of Obama, if we use the reality numbers of absentee requests, this would put Sestak up by between 8% and 12%.

In addition to the idiotic 10% of sample being 18-39 (instead of 30-35%), additionally this absurd sample is 5% African American.  In 2006 it was 8% (and 13% in 2004 and 2008).

It's hard to imagine how such nonsense even gets released.

[ Parent ]
And in Gallup News
After mentioning the Literary Digest survey, I remembered that it was George Gallup that got it right on that one.  And now, Gallup has a "Congressional Generic" in which the 13% non-black, non-white part of the sample has R's us by 12 points.  Republicans have NEVER won that demographic in modern times, and it went 2-1 in 2008.  I guess with Gallup, it's Alf Landon by a landslide...
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Alan Abramowitz called out Gallup for the same thing, and I'll chime in...
...that it's bullshit to think non-black minorities will favor the GOP, or even break even for them.

Hispanics make up MOST of that 13%, and they will break Democratic at least 60-40 and likely closer to 65-35...with an outside shot at approaching 70% if it turns out the GOP xenophobia drives higher turnout.  The rest of that 13% is broadly "Asians," who are increasingly liberal and Democratic primarily because South Asians (like myself) who vote Dem by about a 75-25 margin are an increasingly larger percentage of the "Asian" vote.  East Asian subgroups also have trended increasingly Democratic over the past 15 years or so, but by a smaller margin.  And of course Native Americans who make up a measurable vote share in a handful of states are largely Democratic voters.

None of this is going to change on November 2nd.  Democratic margins might drop a very small amount with these groups, but they're going to favor Dems as a whole at least 60-40 and more likely by a bigger margin than that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I personally
can't see the generic ballot gap being that large. What has happened in the last few weeks that's been worse than what has happened in the last few months that would justify a leap to ten points or more? Maybe it'll end up that way, but if it starts trending down to five or six points, or to even three or four, then I will feel better.

As far as how minorities influencing poll results, the one thing I worry about is certain groups being clustered into too many or too few districts to really make a difference. I'd love to be very, very wrong about this, however, and there are some indications that the name pollsters are badly underestimating their influence.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The biggest thing
that has happened is a shift to a likely voter model. Before 2-3 weeks ago, Gallup was measuring all registered voters.
[ Parent ]
Is someone trying to channel the Kremlins from Donkey Kong Country?
what with their substituting hard c's with k's?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
No
[ Parent ]
Oh, right.
I should have known that from my knowledge of Nethack references.

Though I should also have known that the main guys running this site have older and less geeky reference pools than I do...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
"You murderer!"
Ha! But Nethack is pretty old and geeky itself at this point, yeah?
[ Parent ]
I think that's one of the oldest games in my repertoire.
Among the others are the first batch of NES games, such as Super Mario Bros. and Metroid.

Though I admit only got into Nethack in around 2006; I'm basically a console gamer.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
PPP and Rasmussen are both stepping out on ledges, and opposite ones at that......
Rasmussen has the GOP running away with races that everyone else says are tight.  Even when Ras concedes tightening, they show a bigger GOP margin than anyone else.

PPP goes the opposite way on some of theirs, although their PA-Sen poll has been vindicated by Muhlenberg and Quinnipiac.  But PPP is really out there on PA-Gov and IL-Gov, and also CO-Sen giving Bennet an outright lead when no one else will except Dem internals.

Needless to say, I really hope PPP is vindicated across the board.  But I've been obsessively following elections long enough to know that today's polling champ is often tomorrow's chump.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Bennett
is only just behind in Ipsos (-3) and Fox/Rasmussen (-1).

I wouldn't really say PPP is that out of line on Bennett.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
I know and I realize they're all margin of error, but PPP is still the only...
non-Dem internal to give Bennet an actual lead.  It's much less a ledge they're out on than on PA-Gov or IL-Gov, but it's still a real precedent.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Look.
  If Sestak is really winning Democrats 89-7, I don't see him losing.  Even Santorum (!) got 7% of Democrats in 2006.  This is why I liked Sestak's debate performance.  It really appealed to PA Dems like me.  Sestak doesn't have to win independents (only 19% of voters in 2006) to take this race, but losing them by 20 points would make me very nervous.

24, Male, GA-05
Agreed
If Sestak can coalesce 90% of Democrats, it's his race to lose. Where things get problematic is if he's getting around 87% of Dems and Toomey has a double-digit advantage among Indies...that's when you have a dead heat on your hands. I still don't think Sestak is at the 90% mark (though I only have Toomey winning Indies by 6), and thus, that's part of why I still have Toomey up 2 overall. I'll be stunned, btw, if Toomey doesn't get at least 94-95% of Republicans - it's hard to fathom how Specter's old moderate wing would back the guy who knocked him off in the primary, plus the state GOP has gotten more conservative in recent years.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Moderate R's
there is the fact that the remaining moderate R's are clustered in the Philly burbs, which is Sestak's stomping ground; I could see him peeling off a good number of those, as he is very popular in those counties. Don't know what that would add up to in all, though.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.
[ Parent ]
Philly suburbs
I think after this election the Philly suburb voting is going to be pretty intriguing.  The Sestak-Toomey margin, the Corbett-Onorato margin and the House (D) vs House (R) margins could fluctuate wildly.  We always know campaigns and candidates matter.  But I think we'll see some serious ticket splitting.

I can picture us all here in 2012 debating the Philly suburb congressional elections and looking back on these numbers....

[ Parent ]
And turnout will be key
I actually expect Sestak to have a decent turnout operation statewide.  

If Onorato does anything at all in Pitt, it'll help Sestak there.  But Sestak has Obama to potentially help in Philly, and I expect a Clinton barnstorm of PA (Holden, Critz, Dahlkemper districts and maybe even Kanjorski's and Carney's districts) though I have no proof of this, just my expectation.

I have no idea how this will all actually play out, but come election night PA-SEN will probably be one of the easiest races to analyze.  Pretty much everyone on earth agrees on what each side needs to win, its just a matter of doing it.

[ Parent ]
Zombie Myths about Pennsylvania
Nate Silver this morning: "Still think it's a tough race for Sestak to close when Ds getting killed in Rust Belt. If he does it he's an amazing politician."

I don't want to pick on Nate Silver alone for this one, because pundits (Chris Matthews) back in 2008 were even more obnoxious about portraying my home state as a "rust belt" state.

OK.  Philadelphia and its suburbs are ALL OF 90 miles away from the DC beltway - maybe some people should take a drive.  Philly and its suburbs are in NO WAY rust belt territory.  They are part of the northeastern megalopolis and you better believe they vote that way.  Obama took a 650,000 vote advantage out of Philly and the suburbs in 2008, and won every single Philly 'burb county by at least 9 points.  Not every Pennsylvania voter is an angry, gun-hoarding, former union member who rants about Washington spending.  

And Nate is now definitively a beltway analyst.  He chides us for paying too much attention to outliers.  Now that there are corroborating polls confirming a tight race, he falls back on beltway bullshit.  What a hypocrite.

24, Male, GA-05

Yeah
I agree about PA analysis. 50% of the state is NE corridor, and this is the part of the state that is growing. The rustbelt part has been losing pop. for years.

Its not really accurate to compare PA to a state like OH or WI or MI. Its at least as much like MD, NY, or NJ.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
In fairness...
I think it would be a little safer to say that many of the swing voters in PA are from the rust belt spots though. Reagan democrats in the Lehigh valley and in my district (PA-6) in Coatesville could be critical here. Do they come out en masse? Are they tea party sympathizers? I can't imagine them being terribly friendly to Sestak, but maybe the military credentials help him there more than Wall St. Toomey.
[ Parent ]
Not just about swing voters
Also about turnout, in Philly and Philly suburbs.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
And the thing is
Pittsburgh and Allentown are now modern economies driven more by service and high tech industry. Allentown-Bethelem shifted steadily back into the Democratic column the past decade.  
[ Parent ]
You had
to know that something was happenig to Pittsburgh when Burberry opened a store there.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
One thing...
I think that one thing a lot of people include Nate are underestimating given that their model rightfully ignores intangible factors is that races like PA-Senate are being waged in territory that is decently Democratic friendly. While it is not Vermont, PA is all else equal nominally blue. While we can't and shouldn't expect 2008 like turnouts, in places like PA, IL, WA and CO these are states that have been consistently Democratic on a national level or have started to trend that way lately. To the extent that voters become engaged it is likely to benefit Democrats in these states as GOP energy is sky high already. I like Nate's analysis a lot even if it's bad news right now but we have to really consider things like likely voter screens and what amount if any voters decide to tune in and where these voters are. If voters tune in the Philly and its suburbs it can save Sestak, Lentz and Murphy.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Will Sestak's military service of 30 years...
versus Toomey's extensive Wall Street ties help Sestak keep the margins closer in rural Pa, or will the [R] after Toomey's name be enough in itself to give him the usual margin?  
[ Parent ]
The Same.
   They only like Republican military types in rural PA.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
And don't forget NYC
Philly is firmly part of the I-95 corridor.  But its a more "interesting" story if we're part of the Rust Belt narrative.  
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver, definitively a beltway analyst.
especially as he's become a "New York Times journalist" FWIW, no longer a mere blogger.

Recently, he's been tweeting a lot hinting at all the insider off-the-record info he's been getting shown. A regular Charlie Cook.

[ Parent ]
What
I worry about is Sestak peeking too early. Does this trend last two weeks? I still think Toomey is going to prevail. Probably by a two or three point margin though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I don't think it's peak-and-decline as long as Sestak and allies stay on the air and field organization is good......
PA has a natural Democratic strength.

Where that's lacking, a Democrat can have a peak-and-decline.  Or a Republican can do that in a state where Republicans are generally weak, like in WV where I suspected Raese peaked-and-slightly declined but of course likely will still be very much in it to the end.

I think we'll see PA stay a dead heat the rest of the way.  My fantasy is that it gets called for Sestak relatively early, but I expect it to remain "too close to call" by the media until well into the evening.  And of course Toomey could win it, he's still ahead in most polling including all GOP internals from what I've read.

But I think Sestak is in good shape.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
he simply needs to keep pounding the pavement until the polls close. At this point, is it really too much to ask Clinton to move to Pennsylvania and Ohio until the end of the election?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'm sure Clinton
will be camped out in PA, OH, KY, and WV until the very end. Those states, all in or bordering Appalachia, will probably be the key to everything.
[ Parent ]
So, who goes to CO and NV?
Bennett and Reid matter too. Obama is popular in CA, OR, WA and IL, but does he still got the pull in those two states?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
On that note,
why hasn't Al Gore been out campaigning?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
After his breakup with Tipper
And the events that followed, im sure that dems would rather that he not be in the headlines.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I guess so,
but didn't that turn out to be nothing? If so, it's kind of amazing that Vitter is cruising to reelection but Gore is shunned because of a made up situation.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Good question...
The states I tossed out there were just guesses. So anything can happen. But I think Clinton has special appeal in and around Appalachia, so those would probably be good states for him. He seems to also really like campaigning there.

CO and NV are important, too, but aren't they earlier voting states than out East? Regardless, I think an Obama Denver rally would be a great idea. (He'll be in Las Vegas today.)

[ Parent ]
PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Keystone Kollapse | 52 comments

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