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Ten More Polls from The Hill

by: jeffmd

Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 11:00 AM EDT


More new polls out from The Hill:

Penn Schoen Berland for The Hill, (likely voters):

AZ-05: (10-12/14)

Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 42
David Schweikert (R): 45
(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-14: (10-9/12)

Bill Foster (D-inc): 42
Randy Hultgren (R): 43
(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-17: (10-12/14)

Phil Hare (D-inc): 38
Bobby Schilling (R): 45
(MoE: ±4.8%)

MS-01: (10-9/17)

Travis Childers (D-inc): 39
Alan Nunnelee (R): 44
(MoE: ±4%)

NH-01: (10-9/12)

Carol Shea-Porter(D-inc): 42
Frank Guinta (R): 47
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-19: (10-12/14)

John Hall (D-inc): 43
Nan Hayworth (R): 43
(MoE: ±4.8%)

NY-24: (10-12/14)

Mike Arcuri (D-inc): 47
Richard Hanna (R): 37
(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-08: (10-9/12)

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 46
Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 43
(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-10: (10-12/14)

Chris Carney (D-inc): 41
Tom Marino (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)

WI-08: (10-12/14)

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 44
Reid Ribble (R): 45
(MoE: ±4.8%)
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Ten More Polls from The Hill | 53 comments
Continue to be shocked
at Arcuri's impressive poll numbers. Hanna must be running a pretty bad campaign. Everything else looks pretty consistent with what we have been seeing. A bit better for Dems in the cases of Hall, Murphy and Kagen, a bit better for GOP in Marino's case.  
Phil Hare
I imagine he would be having less trouble if the top of the ticket was stronger for governor and senate. His district is only D+3, but still surprised to see him losing so badly.
[ Parent ]
Arcuri must have learned his lesson
in 2008; whatever he's doing differently, it's working.
[ Parent ]
what he's doing differently
Is campaigning this time.
[ Parent ]
Bingo!

[ Parent ]
WI 8
That 1-point margin looks a lot more plausible than Ribble's internal showing him up 18.

Surprising that Hare appears to be doing worse in Lane Evans' old district than Foster is in Dennis Hastert's.

41, Ind, CA-05

Not so surprising...
That district is Decatur, one of the hardest hit towns in this recession.  Hare (and his predecessors) used to have it pretty easy, so Hare didn't realize the threat until too late.

Obama came to town at the Caterpillar plant in early 2009 to sell the stimulus.  A few months later, Caterpillar moved operations down South. Hare's opponent also claims to be a "union guy" (yeah, right).  The combination of all the above has left Hare in a uniquely weak position.

It's not a district that the GOP will actually hold in the future, but they can win it right now.

[ Parent ]
Ironically
That was basically how Evans won that seat in the first place, I think (that part of Illinois was especially hard-hit in the early '80s as well, and it wasn't particularly Democratic back then.)  That and some shenanigans on the GOP side allowed Evans to win the seat.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Not really buying that one
Considering a recent GOP internal had a tie but I will move it to tossup.
[ Parent ]
agreed, id been holding out with a lean Dem
but it's time to call it a toss-up.  
[ Parent ]
None of these change CW
Indeed I already ranked all except Hare and Arcuri as tossups. I think we all read to much into his close call two years ago. They were clear at the time that the campaign assumed he was safe and sent volunteers to help other candidates.
The Onion: "Democrats Could Lose Up to 8,000 Seats..."
This is great.

WASHINGTON-According to recent media reports, Democrats stand to lose as many as 8,000 congressional seats and more than 917 gubernatorial races in November's midterm elections. "Republicans are poised to pick up 1,500 seats in Ohio alone, and could wind up with a 23,576-to-12 majority in the Senate," Beltway observer Isaac Hundt said Wednesday, noting the GOP's advantage is likely to increase by Election Day given that its candidates are outspending their opponents by some $900 trillion. "With Democratic disapproval ratings in the quadruple digits, it's a foregone conclusion that Republicans will not only retake Congress, but hold it for the next 20,000 to 25,000 years." Experts also predicted the one-sided election results would cause Barack Obama to die on the spot, at which point the nation's leading conservative talk-radio host would be sworn in as president of the United States forever.

Link: http://www.theonion.com/articl...

thank you for this!

[ Parent ]
I often think of
these articles when I read comments from pollsters concerning the generic ballot. Yes, it's an indicator, but how good, especially this late in the game? Wouldn't the individual district results, if not clearly bogus, give a slightly better read on where we might be headed?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Pat Murphy up = Happy Dance!!!
Kagen needs to open up the wallet, he's still in this.

I don't know how to read PA-10, numbers are all over on this one. I think IL-17 is gone, I haven't seen a poll yet giving Hare the lead.

The rest, pretty decent. I'm amazed AZ-5 keeps hanging in there. Also, NY-24: this is why none of us are paid to be pundits.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

In that case
why are pundits paid to be pundits? In NY-24 there really is a logical explanation, that I was admittedly skeptical about at first, and that is that Arcuri simply thought he had a fairly easy election last time and slacked off and let Hanna define himself and run as a moderate conservative, and put together a good local game that almost unseated him. This time around he's been aggressive and taken nothing for granted, and Hanna has to run, from what I've heard, a much more conservative campaign.

I dunno about IL-17. Have you seen this district? It's gerrymandered to pack in almost every Democrat in Downstate Illin0is, (outside of St. Louis), and it contains reliably Democratic areas like Rock Island County. I have a hard time believing some underfunded, unknown pizzeria owner will be able to take him down, though, honestly, Hare is no Lane Evans, and that is very unfortunate for us.

I'm glad Murphy seems to be in a good position. If he is narrowly ahead in polling come election day, he should eek out a win. I wonder if Bob Casey retires in 2012 to start preparing for a 2014 Gubernatorial race and the 40 year Murphy runs?

[ Parent ]
i believe she/he is referring to
This blog having a widespread opinion that Arcuri was done for because first he had poor 2008 numbers, and then he votes for the more liberal HCR bill but then plays coward and votes against the more conservative version.  This opinion died when the numbers started coming out so it wasn't based on much but political speculation.
[ Parent ]
Not sure what to think of these
When the DCCC are cutting funds to Murphy and putting him in the same bracket as the likes of Kosmas and Markey. I think all the other polls of IL-17 have had a Republican tinge to them whether it be internal or WAA. Then again he hasn't responded with better numbers of his own. I do seriously doubt he is this far down when the previous poll to this was from POS and it was a tie.
[ Parent ]
But the ironic thing
is that no polling has shown, (not even Republican internals), Kosmas or Markey dead in the water, and in CO-04's case the NRCC is still dumping BIG dollars in the races and Markey is raising enormous sums of money. Neither of those races is dead. The rating of Fl-24 as 'lean Republican' is very flawed imo. It's pure toss up, as is CO-04. Murphy has plenty of money, and Philly is very expensive. In their triangulation they probably cut him off figuring that he had enough money to maintain his position, and that they could redistribute those resources to cheaper districts and get a lot further on defense than trying to shore Murphy up further.  
[ Parent ]
remember when the GOP said
They already had half the seats they need in the bag?  I believed them then but I think it's clear now with spending and polling info available that they may only have 15 and most of those are open seats in friendly territory.
[ Parent ]
I don't think it was "cutting funds"
Murphy had a 1.6M to 800K CoH advantage as of last week's filing. Other Dems need the D-Trip's help more.  (Same with Grayson.)
[ Parent ]
Ahh, that makes a lot of sense.
$10-20,000 cut from five to ten relatively strong House candidates and off to a weaker candidates certainly does seem like a smart move. It makes even more sense if, if only by default, the candidate for Senate is going to finish better in that state than in some other state, like Ohio.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
A couple of these don't pass the smell test
Hare at 38%?  Kagen only down 1?
Why should you think Kagan
is down more than One? Those We Ask America Republican Pushpolls? Kagan is a two term incumbent, and well-funded, and the Green Bay area seems to have shifted a bit more Democratic in the last ten or fifteen years and is no longer rock-ribbed, solid Nixon-Reagan Republican anymore. It'll be close but I expect Kagan to hold on. He surprised me in 2006, and then overperformed in 2008.  
[ Parent ]
Because He's In Wisconsin in 2010......
For whatever reason, Wisconsin is among our least hospitable states this year proportionate to their traditional voting patterns.  It's hard to believe Russ Feingold is down by seven statewide yet Kagen is down by only one in a district more conservative than the statewide average.
[ Parent ]
We'll see if new polling
shows Feingold still down 7. Aside from that he's typically outperformed his polling average.  
[ Parent ]
I still think:
Shea-Porter will pull it off in NH-01, but barely. Guinta's carrying quite a bit of baggage. She's surprised her district and pundits time and time again - so I believe she'll surprise us once more.
Yeah, it's one
case where I look at a candidate who has both time been underestimated in virtually ALL polling, and therefore retain a fair amount of confidence that she'll hold on narrowly if she's only down 3-4. The DCCC needs to wade in her though; the NRCC has hammered her with 1 million in ads to make up for Guinta's lack of funding and his lackluster candidacy. They are also dropping another million trying to prop up Bass, which seems unlikely to succeed.  
[ Parent ]
More plausible result, at least
The UNH Survey Center poll last week had Guinta up by an implausible 12%. However, that was in a district where Democrats and Republicans are at near-parity - and UNH made it 25% Democratic, 40% Republican. I wish I could see the crosstabs on this one, because a lot of NH polling this year has been giving Republicans larger turnout edges than they had even during the 90's, when the state legitimately was that Republican.
[ Parent ]
This is good news.
"NRSC IE to Begin Funding Ads in Alaska." Link: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...
Do we have any info about the methodology
of this polling?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
rassy says raese expanding his lead 50-43
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

He either knows something we don't, or the jig will soon be up for mr. rasmussen.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Very poor news coming from him today
This, IL-Sen, FL-Gov.
[ Parent ]
I'm sure he's brewing up something special
for PA senate.
[ Parent ]
Indeed
But I'm wondering what happened to the PPP IL numbers.
[ Parent ]
Out now...
Kirk up by 2.  Enthusiasm "canyon" in IL.  If dems can increase GOTV, Kirk loses easily.
[ Parent ]
Obama should focus all his time
On Illinois, Wisconsin, and maybe California and Colorado. Let Clinton and Biden handle everywhere else

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
West coast swing over the weekend
California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada. He can help most in CA and IL I think.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget MN. He's coming here to GOTV
for Mark Dayton.
[ Parent ]
After a good day of polling for Dems yesterday,
Rasmussen produces three narrative-changing polls the very next morning.  Coincidence?  

Check this out.  This is a list of all of the polls in each of the three races polled by Rasmussen since the last Rasmussen poll.  Spot the outliers.

WV-SEN

Rasmussen - Raese +7
FOX (Rasmussen) - Raese +3
Orion - Manchin +10
CNN - Tied
GQR (D) - Manchin +5
PPP - Manchin +3

FL-GOV

Rasmussen - Scott +6
Suffolk - Sink +7
Susquehanna (R) - Sink +3
PPP - Sink +5

IL-SEN

Rasmussen - Kirk +4
Anzalone-Liszt (D) - Giannoulias +5  
GQR (D) - Giannoulias +3

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
He's just doing his job ;)

[ Parent ]
And now Blunt up 9
After his FOX poll had it down to 6.
[ Parent ]
A DNC or DSCC spokesperson issued a statement some weeks ago about...
...a few races and cited Rasmussen polls in those races as "Republican internals."

Very close to the truth, frankly.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
IL-SEN
[quote]
IL-SEN

Rasmussen - Kirk +4
Anzalone-Liszt (D) - Giannoulias +5  
GQR (D) - Giannoulias +3
[/quote]

Now add PPP with Kirk +2.  So which ones are the outliers in this race again?

[ Parent ]
He is still showing the largest Kirk margin
And in most cases has Dems in a worse position than the totality of polling. Except for CA-Sen and WA-Sen where all of a sudden he has Boxer and Murray doing better than anybody else.
[ Parent ]
Well, if true, the debate did it...
Raese overperformed and Manchin sounded too much like a generic D.  It's a shame, 'cos Manchin's performance was inspiring, but not a good choice this year.
[ Parent ]
GOP campaign internals
Say tie as per National Review. Regarding the debate the articles I saw were centered on how little Manchin supports the Democratic agenda (particularly his quote that Obama is "Dead wrong" on Cap and Trade) and the fact Raese doubled down on opposition to the minimum wage.
[ Parent ]
These are bullshit
I don't trust ANY of these polls.

They're from the firm of Mark "I have no idea how Democratic presidential primaries work yet I'm supposed to be smart and running Hillary's campaign" Penn. Seriously, Mark Penn is the worst strategist on the face of the planet and the Democratic Party would be better off if that disgusting slimeball was ignored and considered persona non grata.

At least Karl Rove is a smart strategist. I don't trust anything that might've been touched by either of them and I don't think anyone else should, either. And shame on The Hill for hiring this incorrigible douchebag.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Well, fwiw,
polling is different from campaign strategy.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
You forgot to mention Schoen
Schoen's out there actively campaigning for the GOP this cycle.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.
[ Parent ]
PA-4 poll
From Susquehanna:

Jason Altmire (D) 47%
Keith Rothfus (R) 35%

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...

Good news there...


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Bobby Schilling!
Holy heck. On the positive side he has one termer written all over him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Ten More Polls from The Hill | 53 comments

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