I cross-posted this already

But I think this is worth pointing out again.

There has been a lot of steam building
against R incumbents within the last few weeks.  First, Delbene started moving up against Reichert.  Bera shows that he's neck and neck with Lungren.  You've got the internals showing Garcia ahead of Rivera and Edwards ahead of Ross, which were never repudiated by the other side or by public polling.  And now Hulburd ahead of Quayle.  
I really think that these R incumbents in swing districts, guys like Patrick Tiberi, Mary Bono Mack, and Bill Young, might be in a lot more danger than the pundits think.  The Tea Partiers that have been railing so hard against the democrats have also been known to rail against their own kind at times.  Up to this point, it was widely assumed that their cannibalism was only taking out more electable incumbents in the primaries, but perhaps in districts with R incumbents, these people won't be motivated to keep their representatives in office.  This is especially true for such representatives like Leonard Lance, Frank LoBiondo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and others who voted for stuff like cap-n-trade and the repeal of DADT.  

This is a late developing story, but could be one that ends up being a major talking point on election night and the days afterward, particularly if the democrats pick up 8, 9, 10 Rep seats and keep the House as a result.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 18:50:24 PM UTC

This the narrative Ive been following

People are pissed and swing districts are obviously the place where voter anger will most be likely able to flip seats.  We control nearly every swing district, we're the ones going down.  The GOP still control some swing districts and these seats could be surprisingly competitive.

Come on Mudslingus, God of politics, prove me right!

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by: Andrew @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:38:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

When life gives you lemons,

Make some lemonade and continue to enjoy the show.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:40:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can't tell you how much I want to believe you

This would be so amazing if it were true. It would literally shatter the entire election narrative

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:42:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very much so.

I'm sure I'm not the first that has said this, but it's worth repeating: if the Democrats hold the House, even by the smallest of margins, the narrative will instantly change. Instead of the "likely failed Obama presidency," it will be "How did they manage to hold it despite...?" The Democrats will need to push this and not let up, of course, but it's easy to run with something that works in your favor.

I'm even willing to go so far as to suggest that if the Democrats hold enough seats, they will be emboldened to go for another round of stimulus--this time something larger and more likely to work--or something else designed to jump start employment. The demographic trends are moving in their direction, and if the economy is on a sufficiently steady path in 2012, there's no doubt that Obama will be reelected. With that could come an even larger majority that they have now.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:02:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This could help the Democratic party

in the long term. Thank you Tea Party!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:25:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, maybe.

First we have to retain the House. :]

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 21:12:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I know we all appreciate the Hope Spot, but

let's not get ahead of ourselves.

This reminder should be to tell us that we have every reason to keep our pedals to the metal.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 21:51:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspected that

it would be close. It has been interesting that we've seen no other polling here.

One interesting thing, though, is PPP's LV model. Usually they're pretty pessimistic (like seeing a 51-44 McCain sample in FL), but here they have a 52-40 McCain sample, when this district actually went 57-42. Maybe there isn't an enthusiasm gap here?

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 18:50:32 PM UTC

As Markos said...

it can probably be explained better as the "favorite son" gap, which is why you're seeing Democrats not do as well in Illinois and Delaware, and Democrats doing better in Alaska and Arizona.

There probably is some enthusiasm gap too, but that the "favorite son" isn't running for President tempers some of that the other way.  Though it's unclear just how much, as he's still on the ballot for his own Senate race.

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by: BruinKid @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 18:54:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There definitely IS a favorite-son effect, and it distorts PVIs in certain states......

There's artificial Democratic inflation in the PVI ratings in HI, IL, TX, and AZ from the favorite-son effects the past couple Presidential elections.  Interestingly, in MA not so much, as Obama performed on par with Kerry there.  But it's possible BOTH overperformed relative to a "normal" election, Kerry due to home-state bias and Obama due to the Democratic wave.  DE and AK are too one-sidedly partisan for a PVI to matter in what are at-large House seats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:01:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

BLUE WAVE. GOP IS DOOMED!!!

You heard it here first.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 18:56:40 PM UTC

This is shocking

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by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 18:56:43 PM UTC

Did anybody else

Picture Sean Connery saying that?

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 18:59:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's a flight leaving for Miami in an Hour. . .

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by: andgarden @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:02:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree, big surprise

This district has a very Republican PVI. I hope this is for real, but no-one should count on this poll being predictive of the election result.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 06:46:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have wondered about Quayle's....

ability to close the deal. He won a fractured primary and is a very weak candidate who should create enough reservations within the electorate to allow Hubbard to have a chance to be one of the few D pick-ups this cycle.

Democrat: TN-8

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by: wtndem @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:06:11 PM UTC

Does he even create reservations?

I thought Native Americans usually favor the Democrat.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:11:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

BOOM! CRASH! He'll be hear all week folks! Please tip your servers generously! (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:16:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Try the veal

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 02:42:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No doubt.

    But shitty candidates get sent to Congress all the time, ho-hum.  I was annoyed when AZ-03 was chosen to be polled over PA-06.  I was wrong, and now I am surprised.

24, Male, GA-05

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by: cilerder86 @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:48:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kos should have sat on this one...

This will just get the money flowing into Quayle the last two weeks.  NRCC money might be limited, but not the third party funding.  

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by: Roscoe @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:13:39 PM UTC

Agreed.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:15:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Couldn't do that

When he asked people to vote.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:19:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't agree with that, Quayle surely is polling himself and...

...knows the state of the race.

Well, I ASSUME he's polling himself.

I suppose it's possible he took victory so for granted that he's been coasting.

But somehow I doubt it.

And anyway with just 2 weeks left it's awfully hard to change the trajectory of the race.  I don't know what's out there to use against Hulbard, but you'd have to have some pretty strong material to drive up his negatives in such a short time for a House race.  It's hard to get oxygen right now, EVERYONE is on TV, and ad buys are expensive.

Plus, if you're the Republicans and you're on track to win 50 seats, it's awfully tempting to just sit out AZ-03 and hope Quayle pulls it out while spending that money elsewhere, knowing that even if he loses you likely have taken the House anyway and then you knock out Hulbard in 2012 in what is a very tough hold for the Dems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:20:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He took

He took his loss in the primary for granted and didn't even have an event planned for that night - had to claim victory the next day!  I'm surprised he's not better at this - Dan Quayle wasn't a bad campaigner in his IN races.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:31:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's got all the Quayle

and none of the Dan?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:32:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yet unfortunately for Quayle...

Arizona early voting started two and a half weeks ago.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:18:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is this one rare race where this might help us?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:31:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huge point there

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:47:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hulburd ad - "Moral Compass"

Good line:

No wonder Quayle once said, "My moral compass is so broken, I can barely find a parking lot."

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by: itskevin @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:19:09 PM UTC

Great ad. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:22:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Solid ad

Low cost without looking shoddy, nice compare/contrast, a good zinger.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:26:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you had told me a year ago

That a Democrat might be representing District 3 at the same time a Republican could wind up in District 7... Or even that the only seat Democrats may hold outside of the Hispanic-majority District 4 and District 7 (sorry Ruth) would be District 3...

Fantastic news though. Basically, this district start out in Dem-friendly Central Phoenix, moves north and east into swing-ier neighborhoods like Sunnyslope and Arcadia, before winding up in straight-ticket Republican areas like Paradise Valley (the neighborhood in Phoenix and the town) and Deer Valley. It's not an easy task, but if Hulbred can win the swing areas, and peel off some of the normally straight-ticket R voters in the Northern and Eastern portions of the district on account of Quayle's "broken moral compass" he's well on his way to winning the district.

If Arizona only gains 1 seat in redistricting, I see this district shrinking down into Central Phoenix along with the swing neighborhoods and the northern and eastern portions of the district forming a new AZ-09 with Scottsdale and maybe a couple of West Valley suburbs. Hulbred could be well rewarded if he gets his foor in the door now, as lots of prominent Dems would be taking a look at a swingy, slightly Democratic seat.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 19:44:59 PM UTC

What's his financial state?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:05:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

$412K on hand

Hulburd (don't know why I keep thinking it's Hulbred) has raised about $1mil to date. He's independently very wealthy but I believe that he's yet to loan himself any money. I doubt he needs any more at this point, but he can probably pony up the cash if it'll make the difference between victory and defeat.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 21:59:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't buy this...

Not for a second.  Hulburd's ad has simply been attacking Quayle on the website he was somewhat affiliated with.  This district doesn't seem religious enough for that to hurt.  I don't know anybody here who is voting/voted for Hulburd.  

This having been said, I'm going to feel REALLY STUPID should Hulburd come up just short, as I already voted Libertarian.  I thought and thought about it, but Hulburd just couldn't seal the deal with me, and I thought he had no chance anyways.  (As someone upthread said, here in AZ we've been voting for two weeks already).

25, M, Indep(former GOP), AZ-03

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by: LurkerInSpirit @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:03:49 PM UTC

PPP

is by far the best pollster out there. They constantly set trends and I believe them. Many people called BS at there DE Sen poll as well. I wouldn't mind seeing other data but I trust PPP.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:11:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Um, remember the guy who said he didn't know anyone who voted for Nixon over McGovern???......

Personal experience isn't always a very good guide to what is happening in an electorate.

And it doesn't matter if people are religious, Quayle's participation in that web site is repelling to ordinary secular voters.  That's just not the sort of thing people want in someone they send to Congress.  The ad is a good ad.

Meanwhile, what kind of campaign has Quayle run?  Has he been mailing it in, assuming victory?  If so, that explains it.  You can't mail it in to win an open seat, not even in this environment in a district ordinarily as safe as AZ-03.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:11:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well at least you didn't vote for Quayle!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:32:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's funny is that I DID,

at least in the primary before I changed parties, for PRECISELY this reason - that I thought he was too nutty for the district and might make a competitive race.  Hulburd just rubs me the wrong way for some reason, probably because he has made socially conservative noises, which is the same kind of nonsense that drove me from the GOP.

25, M, Indep(former GOP), AZ-03

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by: LurkerInSpirit @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:39:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah, I see...

You're a neo-Goldwaterite, aren't you? Much respect.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 21:19:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I

think I'm going to give some coy to Hulburd. I can't stand the thought of Quayle in Congress. Seriously for some reason I just hate him. HUGE fail by Republicans here. Anyone would be doing better. I don't blame Republicans from deferring from him now. Sadly my guess is that Quayle eeks out a small win but I think he either gets primaried or loses next cycle.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 20:09:07 PM UTC

I am not surprised.

Hulburd is actually a better fit for the district: socially liberal, economic centrist and law-and-order especially. Quayle does not give me the impression of being law-and-order. Being law-and-order is the key to winning here as in most of Arizona. And I will not be surprised to see Hulburd win and Grijalva lose.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 21:29:02 PM UTC

How long will it that Ras come out with a Quayle up huge poll?

Or maybe he did a poll with similar poor results and decided not to push it.

BTW this reminds me I really ought to see that movie sometime.

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by: homerun @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 23:02:36 PM UTC

He doesn't poll House races

Except for AL seats. WY, MT, SD, ND. DE is always "strangely" absent though.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 23:06:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And he makes up for it

by polling Vermont, which is a Welch blowout.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 23:59:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually he did poll WY-AL, and yeah he polled VT-AL exactly ONCE, and beyond that it's been...

...AK-AL, ND-AL, and SD-AL.

He doesn't do DE-AL for the obvious reason that it's a Dem pickup and he doesn't want to promote that.

Scotty hasn't polled MT-AL but at least can justify that by the fact there is no Senate or Governor's race there this year, and he doesn't poll a state JUST for an at-large House race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 02:03:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm

I thought he polled SD-AL more than SD-Gov but I could be wrong...

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 02:46:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think he's ever polled a House race by itself......

I'm pretty sure he's polled every House race coupled with a Governor's and/or Senate race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 13:17:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You heard it here first

Literally -- I called this seat as in play ten days ago.

The problem for the GOP is that they have a terrible, awful, no-good, very bad candidate, and we have a picture-perfect candidate.  I also thought Hulburd destroyed Quayle in their only debate, not so much by what was said, but by creating an atmosphere where Hulburd was the disapproving father and Quayle was the wayward son.  That's the sort of thing that will make people vote against party.

The other problem for the GOP is that Hulburd is a self-funder, so they can't just throw some money at this and make it go away (like we can in AZ-07); Hulburd can just cut himself another check and keep dancing.  They really are in serious trouble here.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 01:36:12 AM UTC

Ben Quayle

is no Jack Kennedy either:

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by: emilysdad @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 05:42:47 AM UTC

Hey

This is really neither here nor there, but I can't be the only one that thinks Ben Quayle looks like an honest-to-god muppet brought to life, am I?

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by: MIvotee @ Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 05:58:34 AM UTC