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SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 8:01 AM EDT


  • CO-Sen: In a debate on Meet the Press with Sen. Michael Bennet, GOPer Ken Buck said he thinks that being gay is a choice - and then followed up by saying, "I think that birth has an influence over it, like alcoholism and some other things, but I think that basically you have a choice."

  • NH-Sen: This is not so helpful: Paul Hodes's former pollster, Mountain West Research, just agreed to pay New Hampshire a $20K fine for failing to comply with state law regarding a negative message-testing poll they did on behalf of Hodes this past summer. The AP calls it "push polling," but it quite clearly wasn't, given the small number of respondents involved, and also the timing (push polling is something you do to mass numbers of people right before election day). It seems like Mountain West's sin was failing to identify the poll's sponsor (i.e., Hodes) on their calls.

  • PA-Sen: CQ says that the DSCC has spent $4.7 million in Pennsylvania to date (not include the $1.2 million they shelled out to help Arlen Specter), and Dems expect to spend $9 million before all is said and done, making it the biggest commitment in the nation. Thanks to independent groups, the NRSC has only spent about $600K here so far.

  • WV-Sen: This has already come up on the campaign trail (Joe Manchin's mentioned it in ads, for instance), but now it's official: John Raese's wife has been formally purged from the West Virginia voting rolls - because she's also registered to vote in Florida, where she lives. (Ooh! Voter fraud!) And while we're on the topic, Raese probably wishes that Rush Limbaugh would shut his big fat mouth. This is how Big Pharma described the senate candidate while endorsing him on his show:

    • "Full disclosure, I happen to know John Raese. He is a part-time resident here in Palm Beach and he has a locker right across the, right across the bench from me at a prominent local club. I've never played golf with him, but I've met him."

    As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Daniel Malloy says, "The image of Raese rubbing elbows with Rush at a swank Palm Beach country club is not one that the Raese campaign must welcome right now."

  • AZ-07: I wonder what guys like Steve Driehaus have to think when they get told to walk the plank while veterans in much bluer districts who are victims only of their own self-inflicted wounds - oh, such as, I dunno, Raul Grijalva - get help airlifted in from above. Anyhow, the DCCC must clearly sense trouble in AZ's 7th CD, since they've gone up on the air here with an ad hitting Ruth McClung for supporting a 23% national sales tax.

  • FL-22: You may have seen the news that GOPer Allen West has a disturbingly close relationship with a notorious gang of violent criminals known as the Outlaws Motorcycle Club. The best part now, though, is West's denial that he has any affiliation with the group, in which he channels a sort of Bizarro Groucho Marx. The Outlaws, you see, "do not accept blacks, Jews or gays." Phew!

  • NC-11: Big Dog alert! Bill Clinton is doing a rally for Heath Shuler in Asheville on Thursday.

  • NY-22: It may not be quite Paul LePage levels, but Maurice Hinchey probably wishes he hadn't gotten so testy with a reporter who asked him questions about whether he had a financial interest in a local development project. On tape, you can see Hinchey tell William Kemble that he is "full of baloney" and to "shut up." After the cameras stopped rolling, though, Hinchey apparently "made a beeline for Kemble and got in his face." Crew for local station YNN said they "saw the congressman poke Kemble in the chest aggressively."

  • TN-08: Though Ron Johnson's received probably the most attention in recent months, I think Steve Fincher may be this cycle's granddaddy for bailouts-for-me-but-not-for-thee Republicanism. As an agribusiness kingpin, he's raked in millions in federal farm subsidies. Now it turns out that he also received a state grant just last year - and may have even violated the terms of that grant by selling the equipment it helped him buy too quickly.

  • TX-17: It looks like Bill Flores is going to win the Tommy Thompson Award for Crazy Beliefs Blamed on Bodily Functions. You may recall that Thompson (by far my favorite Republican candidate to run in the last GOP presidential primary) claimed that a full bladder caused him to say he favored allowing employers to fire gay employees during a debate in 2007. Now Flores wants backsies for telling an interviewer that he was not opposed to raising the Social Security retirement age... because he had a headache.

  • DCCC/NRCC: CQ says that so far, the NRCC has spent $31 million on independent expenditures this cycle, while the D-Trip has spent $22 mil.

  • Senate: Politico has a roundup of senate fundraising numbers.

    • SSP TV:

    • PA-Sen: It's been a while, but at long last, we finally have another poop-themed ad, thanks to Joe Sestak
    • KY-Sen: I worship you, Aqua Buddha! (Apparently this ad has turned Rand Paul into a WATB)
    • GA-Gov: Roy Barnes hits Nathan Deal for once having tried to weaken the state's rape shield law; the RGA uses a clip of Roy Barnes dismissing the deaths of two children in state custody: "Out of 20,000 children, you're going to have children die every day."
    • NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo whacks Carl Paladino on abortion rights
    • CA-03: Karl Rove's American Crossroads attacks Ami Bera for supporting "Obamacare"
    • CA-20: The DCCC says Republican Andy Vidak wants to cut federal funding for water projects (apparently a big issue in this district)
    • NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy's first spot of the cycle touts her focus on job creation
    • OH-02: Dem Surya Yalamanchili says his ad cost him only $20 to make
    • TX-27: In a much-less-good-than-it-could-have-been ad, Rep. Solomon Ortiz features that goofy photo of Blake Farenthold in his pajamas with a scantily clad woman
    • VA-01: Dem Krystal Ball introduces herself with her first ad
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Morning Edition) | 155 comments
    Hmm
    This doesn't look good:

    Murray (D): $3.3M raised, $1.2M on hand

    Rossi (R): $4.4M raised, $3.5M on hand

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

    Has Rossi been sitting on most of his cash waiting for a late blast? Did Murray really blow 5 million or so in the last two months trying to define him early? Then she'd better have a significant lead right now and we'd better hope that holds.

    I gotta say, that is a damn quote from Roy Barnes. Quite reprehensible really.  

    Re WA-Sen $$$, not enough info, we need to know about TV ad buys and...
    ...field organization.

    At this stage those are the ONLY things that matter.  It's too late to move the needle much on poll numbers if you don't already have momentum, the lone exception to that rule being AK-Sen where the major party candidates were complete unknowns and the campaigns are all charging only very late.

    I wonder regarding Murray and Rossi whether it's simply that Murray made her ad buys already, and Rossi hasn't.  That would explain the coh disparity and wouldn't be the least bit alarming.  And I also wonder if Murray has a stronger (and more expensive) field program.

    If we don't know the answers to questions like these and maybe others, then we don't have enough info to judge the numbers.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    WA and OR are two states inwhich late blasts won't help that much
    A lot of the voting is done starting, well, now.
    [ Parent ]
    Back in the summer, Murray spent $3 million reserving ad time for the fall
    So unless Dino did the same thing, they're really on pretty equal footing.
    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: Rasmussen strikes again......
    They have Angle up 50-47.  Turnout model is 37D-37R-26I, in a state with voter registration at 42D-37R-21I.  They have an electorate that is 76% white.

    Angle's favorables at 48-50, compared to 42-56 a week ago, compared to 47-52 a week before that, compared to 43-56 a week before that.  So Rassy is all over the map on her favorables, alternating repeatedly between BARELY underwater and significantly underwater.

    Crosstabs are much less reliable than the above topline numbers, but FWIW, they have Angle getting 16% of Dems when most polling pegs Reid as having significantly more crossover support than Angle.  They also have Reid winning the "other" race, i.e., not black and not white, only 52-47.  Again, these are not reliable statistically, but Rasmussen has a consistent sampling problem particularly with racial minorities.

    All this is to say I think the race is, no surprise, a pure tossup.  Angle is not going to get 50% or anywhere close to it, or 16% of Dems, or an exit poll favorability close to 50%.  Of those things I am confident.  Of a Reid win, I'm 50-50 now and only hope Nevada Dems can engineer a sufficiently favorable turnout model.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    All over the map?
    I wouldnt say that Rassmussen is "all over the map" on Angle's favorables, at least not on the basis of the data you list.

    Your numbers show that Rass has had both her favourable and unfavourable ratings within a 5-6 point span over the course of four weeks. Her ratings at Rasmussen have basically been 45 favourable 53 unfavourable, +/- 3 percentage points on both values.

    That's not all over the map, that's remarkably stable considering the heatedness of the debate and the retaliating ad salvos. The +/- 4% margin of error alone means that this kind of variation would happen naturally even if the candidate's reception didn't change at all.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

    [ Parent ]
    Yes they are all over the map, and no this is NOT random variation....,,
    I don't know where you get 45-53, sounds like you just "average" the numbers, but I don't know why because that's not statistically valid.

    These favorability numbers are toplines, not crosstabs, and toplines should NOT have this much movement at this late date in a long campaign after months of very heavy advertising.

    If you want to talk about crosstabs, such as Angle's favorability among, say, the subsample of self-identified independents, then yes you're going to get more volatility since subsamples are smaller, most of them MUCH smaller, than the total sample and have larger margins of error.

    But the total sample should not have this much movement in a basic question like major party nominee favorability, again in the last month of the cycle after many months of heavy advertising.  It speaks poorly of polling methodology that such drastic variation is there.

    Think of it this way:  what if the horse race polling over the past month said Reid is up 56-43; then 52-47 a week later; then 56-42 a week after that; then 50-48 a week after that.  We don't see that kind of volatility in the horse race question, nor in the horse race questions of other pollsters over such short periods of time.  And you treat that kind of volatility as reflecting poorly on the pollster.

    There's no difference with the favorability numbers.  It's a topline question and should be stable at this late date.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    No, I'm not talking about crosstabs.
    No, I'm not talking about crosstabs. I'm talking about the regular margin of error on the topline results. It's +/- 4%. Which applies to the favourability and unfavourability separately, not on the margin between them.

    I e, you write that:

    "Angle's favorables at 48-50, compared to 42-56 a week ago, compared to 47-52 a week before that, compared to 43-56 a week before that".

    Let's look just at the favourability ratings you mention: 48%, 41%, 47% and 43%. This means that the margins of error for  those ratings would have been, respectively, 44%-52% now, 37-45% a week ago, 43-51% a week before that, 39-47% the week before that.

    In short, all those ranges overlap. It could have been 44% or 45% every single time.

    Say that it would have been 45% every single time. If it would have been, polls with a margin of error of +/- 4% would have naturaly shown  a random variation in results between 41% and 49%. These results, in short, are all within a percentage range that could just have been statistical noise.

    The same goes for the unfavourability ratings.

    Add to this that you would, in fact, naturally have some jerky movement up and down in favourability as attack ads from both sides impact the audience, and you find that the Rasmussen ratings are really well within what you would naturally expect, hardly "all over the map".

    If you believe that "These favorability numbers are toplines, not crosstabs, and toplines should NOT have this much movement", I'd be curious what that conviction is based on. I don't have the time right now, but I would bet some babka [sp?] on favourability ratings for other candidates in other senate races to show the same kind of variation (I'd be happy to look some up later on).

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

    [ Parent ]
    Early voting numbers in NC not good so far
    It started last Thursday, so we're barely into it (it was not opened this past weekend but will be open this coming weekend, both days, and it ends on 10/30).

    85,000 ballots cast already; of those, 43% are Democrats (36,182), 40% Republican (33,788), 17% Una/Lib.  

    Registration-wise, Dems are at 44.68%, GOP at 31.58% and Unaffiliated voters account for 23.60%.

    White voters are 79%, black voters are 15%.

    Keep in mind this includes mail-absentees which are generally GOP-favored.

    In most counties with extra early-voting sites, those were not open on 10/14 and 10/15.  Some are opening today (Buncombe County - Asheville) and others don't open 'til Friday (Wake County - Raleigh).  So, only one site was open in most counties this past week, usually at the Board of Elections office or some other county government office.

    Here's the tiny URL: http://tiny.cc/v66d2

    Looks like they'll update it daily.

    28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

    I'd be more interested to see
    how it breaks down by congressional district.

    I also wonder how much of that is due to a lack of early voting efforts on the part of the Democrats. Maybe I am just not aware of what is going on, but Richard Burr, for some reason, was never in serious trouble, so it's not as if the Democrats were focusing on the race. In other words, is this simply an example of Republican excitement that exists everywhere but without a corresponding display of Democratic excitement? Upon first glance, that's what I would think.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I've been volunteering some
    and Wake County Dems set a goal of 100k commitments before early voting.  There is a combined effort between the NCDP and OFA all over the state.  Dems are definitely trying.  I know in my calls this weekend the script pushed folks to go to a "regional" type early voting site vs. to the downtown Board of Elections; as I said above, those sites aren't open yet in most places.  I wish the SBOE broke it down by district/county too.

    But, either way, compared to 2008, this is not good, especially considering how many Democrats don't vote that way here.  I hope things change by the end of this week.

    28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

    [ Parent ]
    Whatever you do, DON'T compare to 2008, that is a BIG mistake......
    You shouldn't compare a midterm to a Presidential anyway in looking at turnout, and you certainly shouldn't compare 2008 in particular to any midterm.

    Compare to 2006 or 2002, that's instructive.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Well You're Right
    The point was we (Dems) have always had the early voting turnout efforts and that clearly has been erased.  I don't think this enthusiasm gap has gone anywhere unfortunately.  None of the previous years would compare to this one, really; 2006 we had no statewide partisan office on the ballot; 2002 was only the second cycle in which early voting was allowed the numbers were still quite small.

    28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
    [ Parent ]
    Agree that the newness of widescale early voting can make comparisons tough......
    It just hasn't been long enough to make apples-to-apples comparisons in some places.  And having no Senate race in the last midterm does, indeed, change the scenario significantly.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Probably more meaningful
    to compare these results to early/absentee voting at the same time in 2006 rather than registration numbers. That would help show whether these are typical midterm numbers, or an indication of the enthusiasm gap we've been hearing so much about.
    [ Parent ]
    Wasn't there a huge R lead on the first day
    That D took the lead on the second day is a good enough sign.  I would wait to see what the trend is like before hitting the panic button.
    [ Parent ]
    Here's a follow-up article
    http://tiny.cc/ei9ay

    Basically, white GOP men are first out of the gate this time; in 2008 it was black women.

    The number of early voters is double 2006 (again, we had no statewide partisan race that year) but less than 1/4 of what it was in 2008 (266,000 the first three days compared to 72,000 this year).  The numbers I had this morning included mail-in ballots.

    The point of what I posted was to show the enthusiasm gap.  I certainly am concerned but not panicked yet.  I believe our efforts are solid and expect things to even out as the days go on and more sites open.

    28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

    [ Parent ]
    ad thoughts.
    I like the poop ad.  Could be a momentum-shifter on the level of TCG's "Olivia" ad for Michael Nutter in 2007.

    But Krystal Ball ... substance is fine, but her voice comes off as clinical, not warm or confident.  Too rehearsed.

    Sestak's ad
    I am with you in that I like Sestak's ad but I think it falls under the "great candidate bad year and likely not enough to change the game" category. Things like cleaning up after your dog resonates with a lot of people and it isn't an over the top ad that would really offend people (paging you Alan Grayson). It is a cute ad that gets its point across in a clean and non-vulgar manner. It really is all about getting the Philly/Pitt turnout sky high in order to give Sestak a shot. I am skeptical if that can happen this year though. I would love to be proven wrong as I think Sestak is a great candidate, leader and face for the party.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Assuming the
    less awful polls and/or good polls for Sestak (a few points down to a small lead) give us a more accurate picture than the bad ones (down ten points), wouldn't a strong ground game, which the Pennsylvania Democrats probably have, be enough to bring him over the top? I would think that an under-representation of blacks in polls would make this only more likely.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    I really had high hopes for her
    Not high enough that I think she could win but enough to give her opponent a good scare.  If this were a neutral cycle, she probably could have gotten a lot more national attention.

    I remembering seeing something from her almost a year ago that was some contest to win a bunch of money.  I can't remember any specifics and when I first saw it, I thought she'll A. Bankrupt herself with the prize money and B. be seen as kind of silly.  Then I hear her name on an LGBT blog and bandied about other places and she soon became a dark-horse candidate to me.

    She's very  pro-marriage equality and coupled that with her dildo collection probably doesn't make her VA-1 material.  She's quite young, has already had embarassing pictures from fbook used against her and seems to have the passion to hopefully make a political career some day.  Her having the money to have an ad puts her well above expectations already I'd think.

    [ Parent ]
    NY-Gov: New York Post endorses Cuomo
    CO-07: Perlmutter "slaps" Frazier in debate, apologizes
    The "slap" is trivial, I'm glad the video is there to show that. Frazier looked bad...
    ...demanding a page number for a citation after Perlmutter provided the exact section cite.  That was stupid by Frazier, and I don't know if he knows it and pressed on purpose, or he's too ignorant to realize a section cite is more significant than a page number.

    I'm a lawyer, I can't tell you what page number to look at for anything in my bound volumes of statutes and regulations.  I look up stuff by legal citations, not page numbers, that's how lawyering is done.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    please
    That was a "slap"?  C'mon Politico.  Frazier would just  embarass himself by trying to make that a big deal, but judging by his reaction when it happened, I don't think he'd be that dense.  
    [ Parent ]
    Holding the House
    Generally speaking, I'm starting to feel as if we have a slightly better than outside chance of holding the House. Because we racked up such nice margins in the last two elections, the Democrats have a 75-seat margin of victory. Losses were inevitable, and unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, a lot of seats can be lost before we end up losing it. A few thoughts:

    1. Holding the House is obviously helped it we pick up seats, and at bare minimum, we will do that in three cases, probably four. But aside from some districts in Washington or California that might bump that number up slightly, where else are we expected to be legitimately competitive? Unless I am forgetting about district, the number is six, maybe seven districts.

    2. Now, this means we need to, at worst, bottom out in the polls where we are right now, or, at best, establish leads in a lot of races. The polls seem to be moving gradually in our favor, at least the ones with legitimate samples that aren't known for releasing dubious results. This could change very quickly. And of course, a lot of it depends on internal information that we just aren't seeing.

    3. With (2) in mind, we can obviously interpret the spending as an indication of how certain races are going. Perhaps it's just the natural tendencies of the press at work, but a lot of attention was devoted to the DCCC dropping out of some House races, or scaling back dramatically. That's natural, especially when you are mostly playing defense like we are, and it's part of any smart strategy. I can't say I'd be any less pissed than Steve Driehaus for making the tough votes and then being let go, but that's the game.

    With that in mind, why is the NRCC still spending so much money in some districts, like CO-04? In some cases, it's almost as much as $1 million per week, or maybe that's for a longer period of time like a month. Not all media markets are cheap, but not all of them are expensive like the New York metro area, either. You'd think that if the districts were really locks at this point--and some of them probably are, considering they are bound to get at least 20 seats--they'd spend the money elsewhere. Even with the overwhelming outside advantage that the Republicans have, money isn't limitless. Why wouldn't they be shifting money to AZ-07, for instance, if they felt CO-04 was so likely? There doesn't need to be any collusion between official committees and outside groups to track what group is spending where, so it kind of makes sense to consider them as more or less aware of what each is doing.

    Basically, my gut tells me that things aren't nearly as bad as some say they are if they are spending such considerable sums of money on districts like CO-04 at this point in the game. I'd be interested to hear what others think on this note.

    4. On that note, some small spending by candidates is natural, or so it seems. Thus, hearing that Carolyn McCarthy is launching an ad isn't necessarily defensive. Even those who aren't in any trouble--hello, Chuck Schumer--play ads. And even if it is defensive, it makes sense to spend less money to stop any potential problems than spend more in a week. So, when we hear that small sums are being dropped on candidates who should be safe, we shouldn't freak out.

    5. As far as GOTV efforts go, this might--MIGHT--be one area where the Democrats are ahead of the Republicans. adleft has said how the Republicans are not nearly as ready as the Democrats in Nevada. I wonder how many states there are where (a) their ground game is superior to or equal to what the Republicans have to offer and (b) where (a) will be enhanced by a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket. Aside from, say, Cuomo, Strickland, maybe Hicklenlooper and maybe even Brown, there aren't too many Democrats who could bring a big ground game that could help House members, but if it helps us keep just five to ten seats, that's incredible. There's also the Obama for America efforts.

    This won't save a candidate running 15 points behind, but perhaps one that is running two or three could be pushed over the finish line by a strong ground game. After all, Obama won by larger margins in a lot of states where he was running only slightly ahead. The circumstances aren't exactly the same, but still, it shows you that a ground game is vitally important.

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    We have chances
    in CA-03, FL-25, LA-02, DE-AL, IL-10, HI-01, and them maybe PA-15 or KS-04.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    I was under the impression
    that LA-02, DE-AL, IL-10, HI-01 were very likely, if not absolutely likely, to go to the Democrats. If that's the case, then 43 is the number the Republicans need.

    What about CA-02, or whatever district it was where the guy was supposedly hiding Alzheimer's? Was there any formal confirmation of the race tightening?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Oh yeah...
    WA-08...the Republican was up by three in the last poll there.

    And yeah LA-02, DE-AL, IL-10, and HI-01 are probably all Lean Democrat, moving the number from 39 to 43.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    I didn't see any real confirmation on CA-02, just a claim
    by a volunteer for that campaign.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    CA-02 is not in play
    The claim about Alzheimer's was a tactic to goad Herger into debating.  A gutter politics move, in my opinion.  I was rather disappointed to see people giving it credence on SSP.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    "Person," not "people" (eom)

    [ Parent ]
    Well then,
    I am glad I sent money to others rather than the guy running in that district.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    We have much better chances in the other seats
    CA-02 is way too red to win as configured. Seats where we have a credible shot in California include:

    CA-03: Big Fundraiser/Physician Dr. Ami Bera vs. Incumbent Republican Dan Lungren.

    CA-45: Palm Springs Mayor/Gay Dad Steve Pougnet vs. Incumbent Republican Mary Bono Mack.

    Mind you, I'm not convinced either of these challengers can win, but I would say they at least have a credible chance to do so.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder how
    Mary Bono Mack feels about her step son.  

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
    [ Parent ]
    Hmm?
    I'm missing a reference. Does she have a gay step son or something? Because that would be just ... fitting. Miss Mary Mack's voting record this year is not LGBT-friendly: she's certainly no Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
    [ Parent ]
    Her stepson
    would be Chaz Bono, formerly Chastity.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

    [ Parent ]
    Stepson
    Does it still count if you marry someone else?  Of course, she and Sonny didn't split, he died, so that might be different as well.  I just don't know if that title still holds if you get remarried.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    I was wondering that myself! n/t

    [ Parent ]
    I think it still counts
    even if she doesn't consider him her stepson, he was once her stepdaughter.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
    [ Parent ]
    She is generally considered pro-gay rights
    In 2008, she was one of only a half-dozen Republicans that the Human Rights Campaign endorsed. I believe that they endorse in a similar way to the NRA: when both candidates are pro-gay rights, they endorse the incumbent for seniority reasons. I don't know what the HRC is going to do in CA-45 this year though, because they would have an interest in getting Pougenot elected despite Bono Mack's gay-friendly views.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Ah, strike that
    The HRC endorsed Pougnet back in May after Bono Mack voted against DADT repeal.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    the NRA endorses from a place of strength
    They endorse incumbents because the NRA gets whatever they want from Congress when it comes public policy.  If it aint broke why fix it?

    The HRC endorses incumbents even when their opponents are more pro gay rights, which the NRA doesn't do.  Susan Collins got their endorsement while her opponent attacked her for not being for gay marriage; why endorse the incumbent who does little to zero advocating, isn't for gay marriage but will throw us a vote here or there?  To me the HRC finds their token Republican "pro gay rights" candidates to endorse so they aren't seen as being in the pocket of the Democratic Party.

    [ Parent ]
    HRC. Worst. Advocates. Ever.
    But see, Andrew, it was totally worth it because Susan Collins was one of the crucial filibuster-breaking votes who helped pass DADT repeal.

    Oh wait. She wasn't.

    So good job, Joe Solmonese, you ineffective fucktard. HRC truly is the most ineffective major advocacy group in Washington.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    Is there any polling on CA-03?
    I feel kind of embarrassed to believe a rumor that CA-02 was on the verge of flipping based on what appears to be a rumor. Still, it'd be nice to think that a grassroots campaign was working so that the race was a lot closer than it'd otherwise be, if only to inspire them to work at it next time, no matter what the configuration is.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    PPP 9/18-19
    [ Parent ]
    I'm guessing private polling shows a tighter race now, because...
    ...the NRCC is putting a BIG ad buy into the district.  I think it's over $600K if I recall correctly, and that's a lot.  You don't do that at this stage, especially when you're poised to take the House and otherwise have scarce resources left over, unless you're REALLY worried.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Where do you guys find this
    information about media buys? I've been at the site several times but never remember the name and am always dumb enough to forget to bookmark it.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Not the NRCC
    American Crossroads has though.  
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe NE-02?
    I haven't heard much in a while but Tom White was supposed to be a good challenger.  

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
    [ Parent ]
    Indiana SSPers
    Has Dan Coats run any ads?

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    Joe Miller hearts East Germany
    A gentleman ask Miller how he felt about the illegal immigrant problem, and made sure that everybody understood he was speaking of "illegal" immigrants.

    Joe quickly went through his talking points about national security and the illegal activity engaged in by the people coming over the border from Mexico, and then reiterated that the first priority was to build a fence.

    "If East Germany can do it, we can do it!"


    Okay,
    if the DSCC isn't going to drop some money into this campaign, they are morons. Sorry, Lee Fisher and Kendrick Meek, you guys aren't going to win. Scott Adams probably could, if for no other reason than Joe Miller is imploding and Lisa Murkowski won't be on the ballot.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    I forgot about everyone climbing the wall to get INTO East Germany......
    I visited Berlin a few years ago and went through the Berlin Wall Museum.  I now feel lied to, since all they focused on was the people trying to cross over to LEAVE East Germany.  They hoodwinked me, they never told me about the hordes of people trying to get IN!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Wow.....I wish people understood histoy a little better....
    so there would be a more substantial outrage and backlash over this sort of statement. Miller pretty much advocating not just a wall....but a death strip with anti-personnel mines and guards will orders to shoot to kill.  

    Democrat: TN-8
    [ Parent ]
    correction^
    will with orders to shoot to kill?

    Democrat: TN-8
    [ Parent ]
    Note to self
    Add to "To Do" list:
    -Support local school's history classes

    Express train to Fascist Town, next stop: Fairbanks, AK

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    Um, although
    I do recognize that East Germany was a Communist (ie-authoritarian far-left) as opposed to a Fascist (ie-authoritarian far-right) state. The "express train to Fascist Town" is just my new meme of the moment.

    Dudes, I swear I got a 5 the AP test for European History.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    Is a 5 good or bad? n/t


    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    5
    is like the top score for the AP.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    I scored a
    5 on both my US history and European history AP test. Maybe their standards have lowered. :)

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
    [ Parent ]
    Best
    I could get was a 4 on both my US History and AP Gov tests. (AP Chem....let's not go there.)

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    Oy vey!
    Don't even mention AP Chemistry..... The horrors of high school are coming back.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
    [ Parent ]
    Someone
    needs to remind Joe Miller in what direction the machine guns were pointed at, and it wasn't at West Berlin.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    oh. my. fucking. god
    Do they just let anyone into Yale these days or what?
    [ Parent ]
    Buck
    The gift that keeps on giving.  Now I see why the GOP have to burn so much cash.  They are barely keeping him afloat in a close race thinking throwing more cash at it can solve the problem.  Buck is on the same path as Paladino.  Paladino was somewhat competitive immediately after GOP primary and then went crashing after putting his foot in his mouth.  Fortunately for Bennet there are several days left in the campaign.  

    At this rate of Buck's constant gaffes I predict Bennet will win by 4-6%

    NY-29

    CO is not NY
    Big difference. I do think this is the Democrat's best shot at an upset. AK, PA and KY being the next closest,IMO.
    [ Parent ]
    Need Sane Analysis!
    I only rarely post but I visit this site religiously. You guys seem to really know your stuff. So where do we really stand for the midterm? It seems the media narrative is out of step with the reality of specific polls that I see posted here of House and Senate races. Why? And realistically what do you guys think are our chances of holding both houses?

    Thanks!!

    The media narrative was first crafted by Rasmussen polls
    about how the Dems are screwed and we became so shortly after that after HRC went horribly wrong in getting passed.

    100% for the Senate, I've shifted with the House as Im down to 60% that they'll take it.  The AZ-3, WA-8, and CA-3 numbers are very encouraging for what I have as an "other prediction", everyone is screwed so if you are an R/D+5 seat or less, you need to watch yourself, period.

    [ Parent ]
    23 PPP House polls released at noon today?
    http://pr-usa.net/index.php?op...

    The NRDC Action Fund will release the results of nearly two dozen surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling at noon EDT Monday (October 18, 2010).

    The surveys conducted between October 10-11 cover 23 hotly contested U.S. House races with incumbents who voted for the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES): Jerry McNerney (CA-11); Betsy Markey (CO-4); Alan Boyd (FL-2); Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24);  Alan Grayson (FL-8); Leonard Boswell (IA-3); Debbie Halvorsen (IL-11); Phil Hare (IL-17); Frank Kratovil (MD-1); Mark Schauer (MI-7); Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1); Harry Teague (NM-2); Dina Titus (NV-3); John Hall (NY-19); Steve Driehaus (OH-1); Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15); John Boccieri (OH-16); Zach Space (OH-18); Paul Kanjorski (PA-11); Patrick Murphy (PA-8); John Spratt (SC-5); Tom Perriello (VA-5); and Steve Kagan (WI-8).



    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    Wow.


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    Hope to see this....
    This would be great as it would be a nice contrast with the polls that were sponsored by the American Natural Gas or whoever Penn's group was sponsored by. My personal bias is that I want to see a poll of VA-05 as I have spent the last few weekends canvassing for Perriello and want to see how far behind he stands as the SUSA polls of 25% seem off. I'd also really like to see where Carol Shea-Porter stands as she has been behind in the polls but with Guinta's "mystery" funds being in the news I'd like some confirmation if she is truly behind or if this dirt may be enough to swing the race to CSP.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    WOW
    I can't wait!
    [ Parent ]
    These polls
    Will weigh very heavily into my next update of the House Rankings later this week.  

    Doesn't seem like the generic ballot has changed much this week either.  We haven't seen a new generic ballot poll since last Thursday, so individual district polls are really all I have to go on right now.  


    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Polls are out...
    ...as best I can tell, without any head-to-head match-up numbers. It looks like its all message testing.

    http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/...

    Male, 23, DC-At Large

    [ Parent ]
    indeed no head-to-head
    talk about a waste of 22 polls - and you would get more publicity for your message if you included one.
    [ Parent ]
    Damn you all to hell, PPP!
    Infernal tricksters!  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    maybe it's a tease
    and head to heads will be later.  i mean come on, who polls districts for everything BUT the candidates?

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
    [ Parent ]
    My first (Republican) thought
    PPP found most or all of the Democrats trailing, but also found that the message-testing numbers look good for cap-and-trade. NRDC asked them only to release the message-testing portion, because it runs against their interests to show cap-and-trade supporters losing.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Weird
    What jumped out to me was the registered voters they polled - they were showing in all the races I checked (about half) that over 90% of them were very likely to vote.  That never happens.  Did they screen out unlikely voters?  It doesn't seem so from the questions, but I can't be sure if I'm missing something.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Right...
    If you're going to pay that much money for polling, you're almost certainly going to ask the main question everyone wants to know.

    Having said that, these were mostly incumbents that we already know are in tough battles, so it doesn't concern me too much that they might still be. The surveys were also conducted over a week ago.

    [ Parent ]
    Latest Ralston on early voting
    Democrats outpacing GOP in raw turnout numbers after two days; GOP has 1 percent edge relative to registration totals

    Not sure what to make of this. Very slight advantage to Republicans relative to registration, though Dems have cast 2.5k more ballots.

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

    PS. HT to askew, who included this link in his latest dKos diary.

    Before I read that link,
    my impression is that it's a sign of relative good news for Democrats. Unless the Nevada state GOP is in that poor shape, where there's really no organized effort, or some other group isn't stepping up, in which case what we are seeing is a natural and thus more worrisome result for Democrats, both sides are enthusiastic. The Republicans may be more enthusiastic, but I don't think anybody was disputing that; it was instead a question of margins. This could all change of course, and it probably will. After all, there are still two weeks left, which is more than enough time to adjust efforts, assuming you weren't starting from scratch.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Actually, the state GOP IS in THAT poor a shape, but it's still not "worrisome" for us....,.,
    Republicans are relying on organic base Republican interest to drive turnout, and to a significant extent that's going to work.

    We're relying on organized field, and to a significant extent that's going to work.

    I won't say that there's "no" organized effort in Nevada on the Republican side, but it's certainly a poor effort and very haphazard.  No one disputes that Dems there have far superior field.

    The question is how much can Dems maintain a turnout model that doesn't fall too far down from the party's 5-point voter registration advantage in the state.  The totality of polling has suggested that Angle leads with indies by around 10 points, and that Reid doubles up on Angle in crossover support to offset that deficit with indies.  If Dems maintain a turnout model with a voter registration edge of close to 5 points, then Reid likely wins.  The closer you get to an even split between Dems and GOPers in turnout, the more at risk Reid is to losing.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    You are saying what I am saying, but
    doing it a little more succinctly and eloquently. Damn you. :]

    You'd have to think, though, that if they can really mine the information available to figure out which voters to target, they are spending every waking moment (no joke, every single hour of every single day) trying to get voters to the polls. After all, wouldn't a better field effort also mean better voter contact information? If that's the case, then you'd almost have to think that the Democrats will win, unless there simply aren't enough of them this year.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Well I would think and hope that. But what can make it not true is...
    ...are Democrats so unhappy with their own leadership that they won't show up for Harry, even though Angle disgusts them, and are Republicans so angry that they'll show up in unprecedented numbers without any prompting?

    Those are the risks.

    I personally think the "risk" of high GOP turnout is high, but the risk of aggressive field failing to significantly offset it is likely low.  It would be a LOT harder had the Republicans nominated an uncontroversial challenger, but Angle makes it a lot easier to motivate Democrats.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Hopefully this is widespread
    I read a story about here in MN, tea-baggers are going to form their own election watch crew to question approaching voters about why they are voting and that they want to video tape suspicious looking vans and buses that drop-off numerous people to vote.  All within staying 100 feet from the polling place, as that's the law.  

    Makes you wonder, why don't they just have those people door-knocking and phone banking instead?  Their own silly extremism and chasing conspiracy theories is what will cost them votes on Election Day and give us some squeaker wins.

    Morans.

    [ Parent ]
    and speaking of morans
    if someone doesnt write a book about the tea-baggers and have the moran guy as the front cover, I'll cry.
    [ Parent ]
    Actually Ralston said more, that makes this sound better for us......
    Ralston's column, at http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo... , said:

    The key graf:

    So, overall, Republicans have almost a 1 percent edge relative to registration in mail and early voting. Usually have close to 5 percent overall in midterms.

    That means relative to registration Dems are performing better.  It's apples-to-apples, taking into account changes in voter registration between 2006 and now.

    Now, this "advantage" can go completely out the window, as a day or two of data can be completely misleading.  But at least for now we're not lagging and therefore have nothing to be depressed about.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Good catch...
    My hope is that the earliest [early + absentee] voting numbers in NV may skew Republican for the very same reason you cited upthread: They have higher enthusiasm organically, which may have motivated more of them to get to the polls on Day 1-2 or return absentee ballots right away.

    I'd imagine that the early voting GOTV drive by Dems will be more sustained and systematic: Following up with voters regularly throughout the period, checking who's voted, contacting those who haven't, staging rallies, etc. This could mean that Dems will perform even better relative to Republicans as the early voting period continues.

    [ Parent ]
    Excellent news
    Because what it means is that at this earliest of stages in the voting, the enthusiasm gap is actually less than it was in 2006. That's likely to tighten, but the Washoe County numbers made it look like Republicans were coming right out of the gate for early voting.

    Still a jump ball in the Silver State, but some good noises so far.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Meg Whitman ads in Hawaii?
    http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    NV-Sen: Angle to Hispanic Student Union: Some of you look a little more Asian to me.
    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    If Hispanic turnout isn't good in Nevada this year, then...
    ...I don't know what it will take to get Hispanic voters to the polls.

    Their choices for Governor are a Hispanic guy against a white guy who speaks Spanish.

    And one Senate nominee repeatedly insults them on TV and then to their very faces in a way fit for The Onion.

    If I find out Hispanic turnout "is down" come the exit polls and/or other field reports, then I will just shake my head.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Brian "My Kids Don't Look Hispanic" Sandoval
    nm
    [ Parent ]
    Well that should drive up turnout both ways!!!!!!......
    Show up to vote for the Hispanic guy, or show up to vote against the Hispanic guy for insulting Hispanics.  Either way, just show up!  Oh, and while you're there anyway, Sharron Angle is the clumsiest possible racist, so vote for Harry Reid.  Or just show up because of Angle and vote Reid.

    But please show up, it's easy and fun!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    LOLZ (nm)

    [ Parent ]
    Good, Cyclone
    Now just figure out how to say that in Spanish and we'll be good to go. :)

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
    [ Parent ]
    WA-Sen: Rasmussen falls in line, gives Murray the lead......
    They have Patty up 49-46 now with leaners, 48-45 without leaners.  Favorabilities virtually the same, 49-48 for Murray and 49-49 for Rossi.  Obama job approval healthy at 52-47.  Turnout model is 36D-34I-30R, and 88% white.

    Rasmussen was the only independent pollster to show a Rossi lead all this time, and now even they can't maintain the charade!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Great!
    I think Obama will be visiting this week, which should help, given his relative popularity there.
    [ Parent ]
    Actually a somewhat pessimistic turnout model
    from the Dem perspective. Good to see. Thats now five polls with Murray ahead three or more.

    Voting started last week, BTW. I sent by ballot on Friday.

    WA-07, 34 years old

    [ Parent ]
    VA-05 Reasonable Poll
    Here is a pretty reasonable poll on VA-05. Hurt 46% - Perriello - 40%. Crosstabs are included at the link below and have AA vote at 15%. The district is 25% AA but I think that 15% is a pretty reasonable figure for what the turnout model would be.

    Unfortunately but not surprising is that Hurt is winning huge with people who are voting for the economy. Full disclosure is that I have canvassed for Perriello the last few weekends. Had a very interesting conversation with an elderly couple in their late 80s who praised me for getting involved and said that they were extremely disappointed that people expected the recession to be over in a few weeks. They related on growing up in the depression and said that with the 24 hour news media cycle and people's short memories it is impossible to capture anyone's attention that we won't get out of a recession in a few weeks. So true in many respects. I hope that I didn't violate any rules on discussing policy here but I thought that was a very interesting perspective from a couple who had lived through the Depression.

    http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Ev...


    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    Thanks, and by my math if you change this poll's turnout model...
    ...to put black voters at census, Perriello still loses at 47%.

    So he's got to do better than 32% with white voters to have a shot.  Closer to 40 is necessary, IF he can get huge improvement in black turnout.

    I just don't see it happening for Tom.  As a few people recently have noted, he might've been a goner even in a neutral election with Obama at 55% job approval nationally.  But in this environment, I no longer see how he pulls off the upset.  The numbers just aren't there for him.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Um, check that, my math was incomplete and my conclusion was wrong......
    Actually, I forgot to consider the 14% undecided or voting for Clark, and Perriello's 47% matches up against Hurt at 43%.  So there IS a path to victory for Tom if he can get black turnout up.  But it needs to be a LOT higher than this poll says it will be.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Oh, and I forgot to mention yet one more thing......
    I assumed in my math that black voting ultimately would go 90-10 in Tom's favor, which is normal.  It's 80-5 in this poll, with 15 undecided.  I did NOT similarly allocate undecided white voters from this poll since they're much more a wildcard.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for your analysis
    Cyclone I agree, in this climate he's a likely goner. Not impossible but he is at a huge disadvantage. Even with the high amount of undecided voters (13% honestly seems a bit high) he'd have to significantly get an unreasonable edge of these to his side and increase his AA vote total. It would have likely been an uphill battle regardless and especially considering his narrow 2008 victory and the districts demographics and underpinnings. I'll personally be curious to see who performs better between Nye and Perriello as they both have similar type of districts (R+5) but have carried themselves very differently.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Quick Math....
    Just did some quick rough math and the bottom of Perriello's "path to victory" would mean that he would need AA's to comprise 20% of the voting population and give him 90% of their vote and take 40% of the white vote.

    Perriello - AA 20% of voters @ 90% support = 18%; Hurt 2%
    Perriello - White 80% of voters @ 40% support = 32%; Hurt 48%

    With that turnout model it is a tied game. That said it is going to be incredibly tough to get that turnout model. AA are 25% of the district but he has to grow from 32% of the white vote. My guess is that he will be in the high 30s on election day. Running the numbers a 15% AA turnout and a 20% AA turnout is a difference of 4.5% of the vote in Perriello's favor. Obviously getting AA voters as close to their percentage of the population is going to be their biggest challenge.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    One of the better quality house polls to come out
    Good disclosure on their process and crosstabs.  Given that Perriello was releasing internals with Hurt +1, I don't think this is unreasonable (in comparison to the odious SUSA polls here).

    One point worth thinking over.  The first question is:

    Q.1 Are you registered to vote in the Fifth Congressional district in Virginia?  [That's the Perriello/Hurt/Clark district that used to be represented by Virgil Goode.]  

    Does this bias the poll in any direction?  They are only including people who actually know their congressional district, and may not include some lower information voters.

    [ Parent ]
    Roanoke
    My guess is that this has to do with the fact that Roanoke college did the poll but it is represented by VA-06 and Bob Goodlatte. VA is cut up weird (shocker I know) with Perriello getting right up to Lynchburg and Roanoke but not the actual cities themselves (Goodlatte gets both). Perriello and Rick Boucher's districts both are covered by the Roanoke TV market but neither represent it if that makes any sense.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    AZ-03 - Holy friggin' shit.
    http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...

    PPP: Hulburd 46, Quayle 44

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    In some ways I'm not surprised

    [ Parent ]
    Holy crapping poop
    wow.
    [ Parent ]
    In every way, I AM surprised. I would've guessed...
    ...at best Hulbard would be down mid-single digits in this poll.  AZ is supposed to be one of our killing fields on election night, and it's a reliably conservative Republican district.

    I'll still be surprised if Hulbard actually wins, but between this race and WA-08 tightening and the NRCC scared enough to put a huge ad buy into CA-03, I'm increasingly confident we'll find a 5th pickup somewhere, and maybe even 6.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Markos
    "Those of you who voted to poll this district last week, great call. I wouldn't have chosen this one, but I'm glad you did."

    I was one of these and the fact it won shows I wasn't alone.

    [ Parent ]
    I wasn't, and in fact I commented that I was disappointed that...
    ...KS-04 or PA-06 wasn't leading.

    But this has proven a smart choice.  Good call, conspiracy, by you and all the others.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Don't worry
    Karl Rove will take care of that. Is the DCCC spending any money there?
    [ Parent ]
    No.
    Hulburd doesn't even have Red-to-Blue status.  That needs to be fixed quickly.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    But he's been a prolific fundraiser,
    hasn't he?
    [ Parent ]
    Yep. Over a million I believe.


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Color me skeptical
    Right about now is the time of year when polls getter weirder than usual because of what election "experts" call natural tightening.

    2 weeks before Election Day, every race seems to be a tossup. Basically that's the rule.

    [ Parent ]
    Literally shouted with surprise when I read that one
    Damn, we may actually have a race here! I wonder what the DCCC and NRCC trackers are finding.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    AL-2
    I don't know if this has been posted yet, but...

    A DCCC-sponsored Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll conducted Oct. 9-12 has...

    Bobby Bright (D) 51%
    Martha Roby (R) 39%

    400 LVs. 4.9 MoE

    I believe this poll contradicts SSPer jwaalk, who I recall posted a day or so ago that...
    ...this race has been tightening and he expects Bright to win by only 3-4 points.

    That's OK, I'll take the poll and be happy.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    5 point rule
    And it isn't far off.
    [ Parent ]
    Ah yes, the beloved 5-point rule
    A rule that can quite clearly be applied in a blanket manner to every internal poll ever released!
    [ Parent ]
    If you have an alternative
    I would be interested to know about it. Anyway, didn't Nate say it was actually 6 points?
    [ Parent ]
    Yes Nate said 6 points, but frankly it's misguided to apply it to individual races because...
    ...released private polling isn't at all uniform.  Some of it is just plain honest and accurate.  Some of it is honest but head-scratching because it's based on a turnout model or other factors about which reasonable people can and do disagree.  Some of it is dishonest.  You can't really apply a uniform rule at all.

    It's like averaging the numbers 101, 51, and 1, and saying "the average" is 51.  Well, yeah, but that applies to only one item out of the three!  I think Nate's 6-point rule probably is akin to declaring "FIFTY-ONE!" in my example.

    I think what we'll learn when we're all here obsessively dissecting the election in November is that some of these released internals were dead-on, some were way off, and some were close or would have been closer with a slightly better turnout model.  We won't find uniform error.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    It is an averaging tool
    Nothing more. Some of them may be accurate and some will be even further off than 5 points.
    [ Parent ]
    If it's an averaging tool
    You're gonna end up making mistakes -- plain and simple.

    I don't have an alternative fairy dust for people to sprinkle on an internal poll which somehow turns it from "automatically dubious" to "the truth". I just recommend looking at the totality of polling in each race, and making your own judgment call from there.

    [ Parent ]
    I never claimed it to infallible
    Certainly most of these Republican internals seem to be off by far more than 5 points when compared to independent polling. DE-AL being the most glaring example.  
    [ Parent ]
    That was me.
    I used to live here (and went back to AL-02 probably for the last time) last week and talked to people on the ground who like Bright a lot, but were still voting for Roby.

    Anyway, this poll is extremely optimistic for Bright. Since the poll release showing him up 8 (which is where I pegged the race), what has he done? I'd say he's up 6-9 right now.

    Geographically... he needs to flip about half of the yellow areas to win.

    Photobucket

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks, my mistake! Thanks for chiming in here! (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    That margin is good news
    Remains a battleground.  Actually moving three points in the direction of Bright since the last GQR poll.  A bit of a surprise.  Only poll that has had Roby out front is from POS, and that only had Roby +2.  I think this one may actually be leaning slightly toward Bright.  Anyhow, I don't think Bright has the 77% chance of losing that 538 does.
    [ Parent ]
    Definitely...
    I think Rep. Bright just might hold on, which I would have considered absurd just a few weeks ago.

    You know, the momentum is shifting like wind shear right now. Some formerly competitive races now look pretty good for the Democrats. Some seats that may have been tilting toward Democratic retention are now basically lost. And some races that didn't look competitive at all are now looking like they might be tight.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Um, Bright has been consistently ahead for a long time......
    Indeed, his own internals ALWAYS have had him not only ahead, but in the 50s.

    And every impression I've had all along has been that Bright has been winning, not really a tossup.

    So I don't consider this a sign of newfound momentum for Team Blue broadly, just confirmation that Bright is still holding steady, no new deterioration.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    CA-47: Sanchez 39, Tran 39 (POS)
    Dates 10/13-10/14.  Keeping in mind that it's both POS and an internal, I think Sanchez is probably well ahead.
    20% missing tells the story
    Leans Dem.
    [ Parent ]
    This is one of those races...
    Frankly, I can't root for Rep. Sanchez after making those race-baiting remarks about "the Vietnamese...trying to take this seat".

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Not a great result for Tran
    as an internal. My guess is that a lot of the undecided are Democrats. Its just measuring intesnity of the GOP base.

    I remember polls like this from MI and LA in 08, but flipped the other way.

    WA-07, 34 years old

    [ Parent ]
    39% in your own internal?
    Weak.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    A 13 year incumbent at 39%
    Even weaker. And, if you add 5 points, a 13 yr incumbent at 44%, still weak.  
    [ Parent ]
    There are not that many people
    Undecided two weeks out.
    [ Parent ]
    OR-04: Bruun 44, Schrader 40 (Moore Information)
    Dates 10/13-10/14.  Bruun internal.  Does anyone know if Moore Information is an IVR pollster?
    Sorry, OR-05 obviously

    [ Parent ]
    I dunno...
    I'd tell you, but I need moore information.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Like a hole in the head?

    [ Parent ]
    MO-Sen: PPP finds Carnahan down just 5, 46-41, but the big surprise is...
    ...they disclose in a tweet that they polled this time for the Carnahan campaign as a client.

    That's huge.  Major campaigns have always frowned on robopollers.  But PPP is getting some serious campaign clientele now, not just cash-poor ones.

    Here's the link:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Tweet
    "2 things at odds for a polling company 15 days before the election: blogging/tweeting and making lots and lots of money."

    Anyway, MO-Sen. The thing I take the most from the memo - "The tightening in the race is a reflection of something PPP is seeing in contests all over
    the country: Democratic interest in the election is picking up as the big day comes closer."

    Hopefully, that is based on other polling they conducted over the weekend.

    [ Parent ]
    Didn't DSCC cancel its reservations here?
    If so, Carnahan might be feeling the need to pinch some pennies.
    [ Parent ]
    DCCC's weekly polling release:
    http://dccc.org/blog/entry/mor...

    The only one I don't believe has been posted here already is:

    Causey Leads Crawford in New AR-01 Poll
    A new Anzalone Liszt Research poll shows Democrat Chad Causey leading Republican challenger Rick Crawford by 2 percent. Causey leads Crawford 44 percent to 42 percent.  Conducted October 11-13, the poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

    CA-48: Krom(D) raises more money than Campbell(R) in last quarter of fundraising
    http://myemail.constantcontact...

    $143,000 to $109,261, whereas most of Krom's money came from individuals and Campbell's came from Corporate PACS.  I don't have high hopes for Krom this year, but if she come somewhat close, she could have a good chance in 2012.  Hopefully hedrick can pull it out against Calvert in CA-44, who is a more damaged incumbent than Campbell.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    Hopefully redistricting shreds the incumbent protection agreement, and...
    ...these districts become more competitive.  Our Dem incumbents, too, will have to work harder, but the state is blue and becoming only bluer, so ultimately redistricting should help us considerably more than it hurts.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Prop 20 is likely to pass
    Though if it fails, I expect Democrats to draw an Irvine-based district to suit an Irvine Democrat like Krom or Larry Agran.  Either of them would win easily at even PVI.
    [ Parent ]
    To be more specific, for CA-48
    that would involve taking Costa Mesa from Rohrabacher and downtown City of Orange from Ed Royce, and giving everything east of either I-5 OR Alicia Parkway to Gary Miller.
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Morning Edition) | 155 comments

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