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SSP Daily Digest: 10/15

by: Crisitunity

Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 3:53 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: The elections officials in Alaska are out with some further guidance on just how stringent they'll be about misspellings of Lisa Murkowski's name: "Murkowsky," for instance, will probably be OK, but misspellings of "Lisa" (hard to misspell, but anything's possible in a state that elected Sarah Palin, I guess) won't. Also, are MurkStrong bracelets on the horizon? They've said it's acceptable for voters to wear wristbands with Murkowski's name printed on them into the ballot booth, as long as they don't show them to other people.

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias offers up an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, taken Oct. 10-12, giving him a 44-41 lead over Mark Kirk (with 4 for LeAlan Jones and 3 for Mike Labno). I don't know how much confidence to get filled with here (especially in view of Nate Silver's seeming ratification of the +5 rule on internal polls, in fact saying it's more like a +6)... but with most public pollsters, even Rasmussen, showing this race to be a game of inches, maybe this is truly worth something.

• NV-Sen: Here's a clear illustration of burn rate, especially when your fundraising strategy is centered around direct mail appeals to small donors (including me... I just got another Sharron Angle snail-mail pitch yesterday). Despite her $14 million 3Q haul, her CoH is $4.1 million. That's almost exactly the CoH that Harry Reid just announced ($4 mil, based on raising $2.3 mil in 3Q).

• FL-Gov: Wow, the next Alex Sink attack ad writes itself. It turns out that Rick Scott was actually sued by the state of Florida (the same state, of course, that he's vying to lead) in the late 90s for insider trading at the same time that the FBI was investigating assorted malfeasance at Columbia/HCA. (The case never went to trial, getting subsumed into the larger federal case.)

• RI-Gov: This is pretty late in the game to fall into this state of disarray: Lincoln Chafee's campaign manager, J.R. Pagliarini just resigned. It wasn't over any sort of disagreement (or, Tim Cahill-style, over the candidate's hopelessness), though, but rather because of the impropriety of having received unemployment benefits at the same time as working on the Chafee campaign (which he attributes to a payroll snafu). With or without Pagliarini, though, there's already a cloud of disarray hanging overhead, as seen by how little attention the Chafee camp seems to have drummed up surrounding their own internal poll giving them a 34-30 lead over Frank Caprio (with John Robitaille at 15).

• CA-11: It was just yesterday that I was pointing out how clownish OR-04 candidate Art Robinson was a big proponent of eliminating public education altogether. Well, now it's turned out that David Harmer, certainly a "serious" candidate by standard media definitions, is of essentially the same mind, having made the same argument in a 2000 op-ed article in the widely-read San Francisco Chronicle.

• FL-02: At this point I don't expect to see Allen Boyd back in Congress next year, but this poll seems weird even if you feel the same. It's from someone called P.M.I. Inc., only mentioned in a rather sketchily-reported article from the right-leaning Sunshine State News site (complete with a tasteless headline that sounds like something I would write) that doesn't make it clear whether this is an independent poll or taken on someone's behalf (and doesn't include dates or MoE). It shows Steve Southerland leading Allen Boyd 56-30, with two independent conservative candidates pulling in an additional 14 percent of the vote.

• GA-02: With Mike Keown having released a poll showing him trailing Sanford Bishop by only 1, Bishop is rather predictably out with a poll of his own today. The Oct. 7-10 poll from Lester & Assocs. gives Bishop a 50-40 lead. (Keown's poll was taken several weeks earlier, before the DCCC started running ads here.)

• MN-07: Here's one more race where there were "rumors" (without an actual piece of paper) about a competitive race, where the incumbent Dem whipped out an internal to quash that. This is one of the more lopsided polls we've seen lately: Collin Peterson leads Lee Byberg 54-20 in the Sept. 28 poll from Global Strategy Group.

• NY-17: And here's one more mystery poll (expect to see lots more of these bubble up in the coming weeks): it shows Eliot Engel at 31 but leading his split opponents: Conservative York Kleinhandler at 25 and Republican Tony Mele at 23. The poll is from somebody called "YGSBS." Considering that "YG" is the initials of the proprietor of the blog where this poll first emerged (yossigestetner.com), and the "forthcoming" crosstabs still don't seem to have arrived, color me a little suspicious.

• WV-03: Yet another internal poll in the why-are-we-still-talking-about-it WV-03 race: Dem Nick Rahall leads Spike Maynard by 19, in an Anzalone-Liszt poll from Oct. 10-12.

• Fundraising: Here are some fundraising tidbits: via e-mail press release, Taryl Clark just announced $1.8 million last quarter, giving her $1 million CoH. (In any other House race, that'd be huge, but she's up against Michele Bachmann.) Two other fundraising machines who are sort of the polarizing ideological bookends of Florida also reported: Alan Grayson reports $967K last quarter while Allen West reports $1.6 mil (although no CoH numbers, important as his campaign relies heavily on direct-mail churn). Finally, CQ has some assorted other numbers, including $626K for Rick Boucher in VA-09, $700K for Dan Debicella in super-expensive CT-04, and $507K for Andy Harris in MD-01.

• RGA: And here's the biggest number of all: yesterday the RGA reported $31 million in the 3rd quarter, which gives them a lot of leverage in the closing weeks in the tight races. (Bear in mind, of course, that a lot of that would have gone to the RNC instead in a more competent year.)

• Polltopia: Nate Silver adds some thoughts on the cellphone debate, reignited by new Pew findings that we discussed yesterday. His main takeaway, one that I agree with whole-heartedly, is don't just go start adding 5 points in the Dem direction on every poll you see, simply because the cellphone effect isn't likely to apply uniformly in every population and in every pollster's method.

• SSP TV:
• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski finally, as promised, rolls out Ted Stevens dancing with a vacuum cleaner endorsing her from beyond the grave, in a one-minute ad
• KY-Sen: The NRSC is still pouring money into Kentucky (consider that good news), with another boilerplate Conway = Obama ad
• NV-Sen: The Harry Reid team must have spent all last night in the editing suite, as they're already using Sharron Angle's words from last night's debate, on health insurance coverage exemptions, against her
• PA-Sen: If internal polling and press release content are any indication, they've finally something that works against Pat Toomey: China, and outsourcing more in general (which explains why the DSCC is out with another ad on the topic, and also pointing out that in Toomey's last ad that, during the period where he was being a "small businessman" by owning a restaurant, he was really an absentee owner while being a large businessman in Hong Kong)
• WA-Sen: Ditto the DSCC's new ad in Washington, up against Dino Rossi (which, I'll admit, is a strange tack in Washington, one of the most pro-trade states you'll see, and where Patty Murray is a regular vote in favor of trade agreements)
• MO-04: Vicky Hartzler's ace in the hole? She has an ad up with footage of Ike Skelton telling fellow Rep. Todd Akin where to stick it, with repeated obscenities bleeped out (hmmm, that would just make me want to vote for Skelton more)
• NRA: The NRA is out with a planned $6.75 million buy in a number of statewide races, including a few of their Dem friends, but mostly on behalf of GOPers; you can see a variety of their TV ad offerings at the link

• Rasmussen:
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%
• CO-Gov: John Hickelooper (D) 42%, Dan Maes (R) 12%, Tom Tancredo (C) 38%
• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 51%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%
• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 51%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 40%
• HI-Gov: Neil Abercrombie (D) 49%, Duke Aiona (R) 47%
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 40%, Tom Corbett (R) 54%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/15
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/15 | 196 comments
More lessons from Nate -- beyond cellphones
This one should be a crowd pleaser here:

With the stipulation that SurveyUSA - which, unlike Pew, does not ordinarily include cellphones in their samples - has spent considerably less time studying the issue, here's what I think might be going on. Firms like SurveyUSA - and certainly Rasmussen Reports, which takes every imaginable shortcut to produce polling as cheaply as possible - are the equivalent of junk-ball pitchers in baseball.

and then there's Nate's opinion of Pew:

Pew, by contrast, is like the classic fastball/curveball pitcher with perfect mechanics. They do everything by the book, and they do it very well.Pew, by contrast, is like the classic fastball/curveball pitcher with perfect mechanics. They do everything by the book, and they do it very well.

Nevertheless, I object to Nate's description of Jamie Moyer as a junk ball pitcher. (He's the one guy left in the majors who is older than I.)

NY - Schumer up 33, Cuomo up 26, Gillibrand up 18, Schneiderman up 4
Why don't they divert all of their remaining funds
into key House and State Senate races in New York?
[ Parent ]
There is a monster
Gender Gap present in that poll, 16 points. What's more is that young kids love them some Paladino, he gets 40% among 18-34 year olds, A Demographic Obama got some 75% of the vote of in New York. For some reason I think this is wrong...

The only other odd thing there is that he's getting 30% of the Hispanic vote in a state with a fairly liberal and reliably Democratic Hispanic voting population.

The big surprise with Gillibrand is that, in these crosstabs, she is dominating Diguardio in Western New York, by larger margin than she's ahead in upstate New York. Basically, it says she's got a larger margin there than Schumer. So, in their responses she was getting a lot of Paladino crossover voters in Western NY, which some here speculated she wouldn't be able to do.  

[ Parent ]
Lots of Young Republicans afoot
At least according to SurveyUSA. No other pollster consistently shows as much GOP bias in 18-34-year-old likely voters, and it defies what is known as "common sense" in most states (including liberal arts college-rich New York).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
young voters without cellphones
put the 2 concepts together:

1. SUSA doesnt call cellphones.
2. SUSA keeps showing an overwhelmingly Republican sample for 18-34.

Therefore, people between the ages of 18-34 who don't have cellphones are Republicans.

The good part is that my guess is that the % of 18-34 who don't have cellphones is very very low, likely in the 20s.

Which means that SUSA is just weighting their 18-34 sample wrong.

[ Parent ]
More
More than a third of people under age 35 - including about half of those age 25 to 29 - have only cell phones.
(Latest estimate from early 2010)
[ Parent ]
I don't understand why the don't weight for that
Like race, age, gender etc.
[ Parent ]
Uh- to weight you need to have
a basic subsample to give more weight to. If you don't call any cell phone users you can't weight by that.

Just like you couldn't weight by gender if you called only males.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Here's yet another good new ad from Reid.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Yet another brilliant and killer ad. Dems don't use this material smartly enough......
This shows how a great ad is made out of material like this.

We have this same hypocrisy meme available in scores of House and Senate races, but I don't see the attacks being made effectively in most of those races.  It's well-done here, as always by Team Reid.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That's why I'm not worried about what happened...
Last night. First off, Angle didn't really "win"... She just managed to talk in complete sentences at times.

And secondly, I knew Team Reid would be firing away with something like this today. Early voting starts tomorrow, and they'll be revving up the base all weekend. And next week, President Obama comes to town (again).

There's no way in hell they're letting Angle get any "momentum".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Is he stopping by next door?

[ Parent ]
There's just something
so absurd with Rasmussen's Colorado polls. He shows the underfunded gadfly Maes and the incredibly toxic Tom Tancredo getting FIFTY PERCENT of the vote in Colorado, which is insane. Particularly when outside groups have written this race off and Hickenlooper is a very popular, and generally respected mayor of Denver whose popularity extends into its suburbs and when he has outspent these two by big margins and has huge institutional edges on them. I mean come on, Tancredo within the margin of error, even with Maes on the ballot? That's crazy.
In past elections
and during the Bush Presidency, the way to read Rasmussen was that their 'Undecideds' were all liberal/Democratic leaners and they'd pushed all conservative/Republican leaners into support for that side.  IOW, Rasmussen got the split right if you tossed all Undecideds to the Democratic side.

There were pollsters then that were reliably the other way, e.g. ARG's Undecideds were always Republican leaners.  But the usual state of affairs among pollsters of repute was Undecideds as soft Democratic leaners (Gallup, Quinnippiac).

I'm guessing that still holds, though I've taken some distance from following pollings closely among the rash of polling this year that has looked/felt unsound.

Colorado's currently a state with a 51-52%D/49-48%R generic split, right in that fuzz zone where either side has a chance win any given statewide race.  Throw all Rasmussen Undecideds to Hickenlooper and you get within m.o.e. of that split.

[ Parent ]
That fits with what I've been thinking
A 50-40-10 finish.
[ Parent ]
That Rasmussen CO-Gov poll...
Now that is disturbing.

Rasmussen has consistently shown MUCH better results for Tancredo than other pollsters of all stripes, but the fact that a "credible" independent poll now shows Tancredo within four points is downright frightening.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

it's completely bogus
What's more that now means Rass is showing Michael Bennett performing stronger against Ken Buck than John Hickenlooper, the mightiest and most popular of CO-Dems, is against the likes of Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes.  
[ Parent ]
Agreed with a caveat
While I would agree that the poll overstates Tancredo's support, there is one clear different between Hickenlooper and the Tanc. The former is running a positive campaign, while Tancredo is clearly going as negative as possible.

Did you see the last ad he released? http://www.independentpolitica...

I think the negative has been working. Although Maes got himself plenty of bad press, Tancredo's ads talking about him stealing from little old ladies surely pulls at his audience's heartstrings. And the polls have pretty clearly shown Tancredo surging and Maes dropping in response.

Could the same thing happen to Hickenlooper? He definitely has a stronger position to respond than Maes ever did; nevertheless, the power of negative advertising seems pretty well proven in this race.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen is bunk. PPP polled CO-Gov 2 weeks ago and had Hick up 47-33......
Only Rasmussen has showed a single-digit race in this one.  I'll believe it when others show the same.

Now, if it IS becoming a race, Hick better start hammering Tancredo hard and fast.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Hick already has like 1.4 mil
in reserved ads, (from way back in early summer, best prices then), up and playing these days in CO, and people have to understand, Tancredo has almost no institutional backing or campaign infrastructure that he would need to crack 40%, plus the CO Republican party will go all out to ensure Maes gets 15% of the vote.

Tancredo is simply toxic, he is incredibly toxic statewide in Colorado. Maes is little better. Rassmussen is vastly understating Hickenlooper. And it's strange, because at the same time they've been the best public pollster for Bennett, other than PPP.  

[ Parent ]
Serious maybe should be asked about Ras.
I said this earlier. But his results in the Washington senate race are clearly not being replicated by other pollsters.

Polls by five different pollsters were conducted during the last week, and these are the results:

Elway - Murray 55, Rossi 41
Rasmussen - Murray 46, Rossi 47
CNN/Time - Murray 51, Rossi 43
SUSA - Murray 50, Rossi 47
Washington Poll - Murray 50, Rossi 42


WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
It's truly bizarre WA-Sen results are all over the map, which shouldn't be happening...
...in a race between 2 very well-known candidates who have been campaigning hard for many months.

What's strange about these polls is that it's not just one outlier, they are all over the place.  These polls range from dead heat to Murray-up-modestly to Murray-up-a-bunch.  Two out of three of those groupings of polls are going to be very embarrassed.

But as always I look at "totality of polling," and that shows clearly that Murray is winning.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't really agree
Four of five polls have Murray at 50.

Really only 2 show it to be a close race.

FWIW, I DO think Elway is an outlier too. I think the result is looking right now like it will resemble Gregoire's victory over Rossi in 08 (NOT in 04), which Gregoire won something like 53 to 47.

The polling from that race has been remarkably similar to this one.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Yeah the only other close
one is SUSA, which has been quite bullish in Washington in particular this cycle. Who can forget such classic polls as their WA-02 poll, coming right after the top two Democrats got 52% of the vote, showing Koster ahead of Larsen 50-46.  
[ Parent ]
SurveyUSA has been bizarre this cycle
Showing extremely weird results in the crosstabs to the point where I've become deeply suspicious of their polling methodology. Republicans capturing large shares of the black vote, crushing Democrats in the 18-34 age group, winning women, losing men, and trailing in the 65+ age group?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
You "don't really agree" with what???......
I don't see anything in your comment that conflicts with anything in my comment.

If you're saying the polls are consistent in showing Murray at 50, then yeah, I agree.  My point was that they differ wildly in their margins, and even on Murray's vote share they have wider variation than a set of good polls should have.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In AK, you can't be wearing a campaign button when you vote?
Really?
Is this true in other states as well?
Not uncommon at all. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
You are, however,
...Allowed to wear a shirt that says "Health Reform Is a BFD"  
(that's "Big Fucking Deal" to all the non-Joe-Biden fans)

Actually, you probably aren't, but if the slogan is obscure enough, you can get away with it. But Cyclone's right that obvious sloganeering and such aren't allowed in polling places.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Well when I vote by mail this weekend,
I'm going to make a point of wearing a button! Just to stick it to The Man...
[ Parent ]
I wore a flag pin on election night 2004
Never again. Yes, I did turn it upside down.
[ Parent ]
It's
 very common. Here in Indiana we are very conservative about it. No shirts, hats, buttons or anything at all with a candidates name on it. I remember seeing this old man who literally had to take off his shirt in the parking lot and put it on backwards before they would let him go in because it was a political one. Very strict.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
It's true in Massachusetts
I heard a story about one young woman who was wearing a t-shirt for her candidate and the election worker told her she had to cover it up, so she took off her t-shirt and voted in her bra.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
I am moving to Massachusetts.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
That's an awesome story.
Remind me to move to MA. lol

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Thoughts
CO Gov.WTF? I swear if John Hickenlooper screws this up then wow, just wow. Let's hope it's an outlier and it probably is but you never know ras has been right on some things I was sure he was wrong on before so I can't say for sure.

Why is Alexi releasing an internal poll like that? What good can that possibly do? All it does is make us doubt public polling. If he was trailing in polling or what not then it would be ok but how incredibly stupid of him.

NV Senate debate. I watched some of it, sadly I would say Angle won. I think this race is a true tossup but I think she has the edge and will probably eek out a win. Unrelated to the diary but I have been thinking it for awhile now and felt like posting.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

I'll let Adleft
correct you on NV-SEN. But simply put, don't worry about CO-GOV. It's such an outlier it's disgusting. As for Giannoulias, I think it's a legitimate thing to do. I mean Kirk just released his internal saying he led 37-31. The polling company Giann- used is one that I feel has a good reputation. I think he will win. Both Barack Obama and Michelle Obama have been stumping for him in Chicago and raising large sums of money for him, plus the polls consistently show the undecideds are overwhelmingly Democrats and the Green Party's support is probably overstated. I'm much less worried about this race than I was a few months ago.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
CO is probably not accurate, I will need to see other data before I buy it. As for Illinois I do not doubt that Alexi leads but he has led in all public polling recently why release an internal? It's just not smart politics plain and simple. If he was leading by a substantial margin then I would understand but this makes no sense at all.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Lynn Sweet is the source
She said another reporter saw it so maybe it was an unintentional leak.
[ Parent ]
Well that would be completely different. nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Does
anyone have the crosstabs for Rasmussen's CO Gov poll?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Cyclone has them
Tancredo is winning the 40% of indies or something with 30% Dems and Republicans.
[ Parent ]
It's a weird turnout model and on indies....
...Scotty has them making up 40% of the electorate, with Tancredo winning them 42-32.  Scotty has Dems and Repubs at 30% each in turnout.

Scotty's previous CO-Gov poll had turnout at 38R-32D-30I.  That was just a couple weeks ago!

So I guess indies are suddenly superengaged and Republicans are depressed and have decided to stay home.

Or, perhaps more likely, Scotty is a bad pollster.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That is actually very close to the 2008 turnout
Maybe it has something to do with Republicans calling themselves "independent" since Maes is a non-starter.
[ Parent ]
and what's the wording for Tancredo's party label
here's the ballot for the Gov's race

(01) John Hickenlooper / Joseph Garcia (D) (02) Dan Maes / Tambor Williams (R)
(03) Jaimes Brown / Ken Wyble (LBT) (04) Tom Tancredo / Pat Miller (ACP)
(05) Jason R. Clark / Victoria A. Adams (Una) (06) Paul Noel Fiorino / Heather A. McKibbin (Una)
(07) Write-In

Wonder how Tancredo polls if you read his name 4th in a poll.

[ Parent ]
Re: Alexi,
one of the things releasing a poll with a modest lead can do is set you up to show a trend if and when your advantage grows.

I have a feeling that's what Alexi's team is doing here - establishing a baseline with which to compare future polls.

[ Parent ]
Well Travis Childress
had a good week here in Oxford. First, earlier this week he debated Alan Nunnlee. The result? I think I'll let a here unnamed College Republican Officer say it: "That was rape in debate form." The anarchistic, pro-tea party, libertarian friend I had concurred, saying, "Childress brutally dominated that debate."

I will toss in my two cents and say that neither of those even come close to doing Childress justice. I finally figured out why this race is still close in a conservative district like this in this environment and why it's no better than 50/50 for Republicans: Childress is one awesome-ass politician. Really, this doesn't look like a guy who until two years ago had been running uncompetitive elections for a county courthouse position in a county with a population of less than 25,000. Childress's introductory speech is a perfect example, he was calm, composed, and fluid. It was a bam bam bam BAM speech hitting on issues of independence. Basically it went, "I was given awards by the National Federation of Independent Business, the chamber of Commerce, I'm proud to accept the endorsement of the National Right to Life Committee and the NRA," and it ended with a fantastic barb, "Some people have been trying to make this race about people a thousand miles away. It's not, it's about the people of north Mississippi and bringing jobs to this area and that remains my main concern."

It was great. And then of course yesterday Bill Clinton came by, (epic miss by the SSP people, haha), and held a big rally for Travis Childress with some two thousand people, maybe more, in the grove. His speech to was a zinger. He got a good response for a joke that, I believe, was criticizing an ad that apparently had Childress morph into Nancy Pelosi, saying, "Now lets get out there and elect the first transgender member of congress."

Not only that, but, to return to the debate, Nunnlee was flat and lifeless. He stuttered, shifted around a lot, spoke with awkward pauses, and lectured about vague ideas such as preserving liberty for future generations of Americans and rallying against big gub'ment liberalism and he really helped Childress come across as the one of the two who was independent minded and pragmatic, as well as the one better prepared to deal with the actual issues facing the district.

I really can't believe how bad a campaign, (I was talking to some Childress people), Nunnlee has run. I would have thought that after seeing the utter ineffectiveness of painting Childress as a Pelosi-Obama liberal back in 2008, they wouldn't keep running ads about it. As it is I'm feeling better about it. There was a huge crowd of Childress supporters from Ole Miss there, (and his daughter Lauren was elected Miss Ole Miss a week or two ago), and that makes me think he'll be able to preserve his healthy margin here, which he'll need now that he can no longer depend on Tupelo to go his way quite as much.

Hate to be the spelling police
But his name is Childers. Great post though!
[ Parent ]
Sorry!! I know I know
I make that mistake all time. Childers. He's from Prentiss county, so I think I fuse that unwittingly.  
[ Parent ]
No problem
As I said it was a great post nonetheless.
[ Parent ]
Figured it out
The Vikings coach's name is Brad Childress. I call him Brad Childers and Travis Childers Travis Childress.  
[ Parent ]
Figured it out
The Vikings coach's name is Brad Childress. I call him Brad Childers and Travis Childers Travis Childress.  
[ Parent ]
I really like that "people a thousand miles away" quote


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Well, if people are paying attention...
Sounds like Rep. Childers walks away from the wreck that is the 2010 House elections. Good news for northern Mississippi.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Nunnelee Sounds Like The 2010 Version Of Admiral Stockdale....
Any specific reason why you figure Tupelo cannot be counted upon this year?  More than other regions of the district that is?

Also, where is Nunnelee's home base?  Are we gonna luck out and get another geographic turf war between rural Mississippi and the Memphis suburbs?

[ Parent ]
Nunnlee has represented
Tupelo, the major urban area in northeastern MS, in the State Senate since 1994. That's why I figure Childers won't be able to get a 20 point margin out of Lee county this time around. Unfortunately Paula Flowers dropped out and we won't get that turf war again, but despite that the race is still tied. I think Childers mainly has to hope he'll be able to make Nunnlee underperform a little bit in Southhaven while not losing too much ground in northeastern Mississippi. He should be able to do that, hopefully at least. He did manage to get 78% of the vote in Prentiss county...while John McCain was getting 70% there. Talk about ticket-splitting.  
[ Parent ]
Baron
Hill got the courier journal endorsement. Not really surprising but still good. Here's what they have to say:

"Mr. Hill has grown in stature and effectiveness in Washington. He sponsored pay-as-you-go legislation that implements fiscal discipline by requiring Congress to offset new spending. He bravely voted for a cap-and-trade bill to reduce dependence on foreign oil and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but only after winning concessions to protect Indiana interests.

His Republican opponent, Bloomington attorney Todd Young, wouldn't have supported any of those actions. Mr. Young, who in addition to a private practice serves as a part-time deputy prosecutor in Orange County, views Social Security and Medicare as "sacred compacts" that must be protected. But Mr. Hill correctly points out that the policies that Mr. Young espouses - on avoiding government intervention in a financial crisis, on tax rates for the wealthiest Americans, on reducing government regulations on business and banking practices - would return the United States to the economic agenda and anything-goes regulatory climate of President George W. Bush's tenure.

Remarkably, Mr. Young even opposes the federal lifeline to the auto industry, which kept General Motors and Chrysler from certain collapse and saved thousands of Indiana jobs. The notion that private markets, in this economic climate, would have provided alternative employment and revenue is simply bizarre."



Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Bloomington Attorney!!!
No one should associate him with Bloomington!! It's not right!!!! :)

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Certainly can't hurt to get that
I went and dug around on the CJ website, but I don't think they've posted that online yet.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I
got an email from Hill. On local races I heard they endorsed Seelye for Sherriff as well. That could actually hurt Seelye as he is originally from Louisville and has gotten some heat over carpet bagging so maybe Gilley can mock the endorsement and use it to help him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Hispanic voters a little more engaged, and one-sidedly Democratic (link)......
I had not heard of this outfit before today when I read an Alan Abramowitz piece on Pollster.com that linked to it.

Since LordMike likes to talk about his mythical notion of Hispanics abandoning Team Blue for the GOP, here's a data point in addition to the recent Pew survey to debunk his myth.

http://latinodecisions.wordpre...

The Republicans can't break out of the 20s in any state in the bar graph toward the bottom, and the graph in the middle shows Dems up to 59-20 in the generic ballot.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Slight correction
Per the link, Rs are competitive w/r/t Hispanics in FL (39-32) and are in the 30s in CO (56-33).

The gap in NY and AZ is impressive at 70-12 and 66-13, respectively.

Yes, it's cross-tabs, and it's 7 weeks of data, so it would not include trends.

[ Parent ]
FL would be the Cubans

[ Parent ]
Which does lead me back to
my assertion earlier that the SUSA crosstabs for Hispanics in NY were a little screwy, with Paladino at 30% and Diguardio at 35% I believe.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, you're right, I was hasty and missed those 2. But to add context......
The electoral reality is that Hispanics break Dem anywhere from 60-40 to 70-30, that's the range.  Only in blowout Dem wins does a Dem break 70, and only in blowout GOP wins does a Republican break 40--the lone exception being Dubya getting 40% (per revised exit poll analysis) of Hispanics in 2004 when he got only 51% overall.

So the 56-33 margin in CO, assuming accurate, is actually a healthy Dem lead not inconsistent with normal behavior.

And as conspiracy pointed out, and I'm sure you know, Florida is all about the Cubans, who now are outnumbered in FL by non-Cuban Hispanics but still are a very large percentage of total Hispanics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Really great news, especially for us...
In the PPP poll released this week (which had Reid +2 overall), they had Reid leading Angle 54-30 among Latin@s. But if this poll is closer to the truth, showing both higher Latin@ turnout and stronger Dem performance (they showed a 68-16 D "generic" lead in NV), then this is definitely good news for Reid, Titus, and the down-ballot D's.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Given the scary Ipsos poll CA is interesting
63-18 here. In the last SurveyUSA poll that had Boxer up 3 and Brown up 4, Boxer lead with Hispanics 53-34 and Brown 57-33. Fiorina will likely do better than Whitman for obvious reasons. What I'm wonder is whether 60-40 is enough for Boxer to win?
[ Parent ]
All she has to do is run an ad
Fiorina is a hawk on immigration and she supports the Arizona immigration law, IIRC. All Sen. Boxer has to do is run some Spanish-language ads in the Los Angeles and San Diego markets playing up Fiorina's positions and that 60-40 turns into 75-25.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Anybody know if she has done that?
I do know, as I predicted, that the latest ad has a focus on abortion. Anyway, I would still like to know if 60-40 is enough with Hispanics?
[ Parent ]
Yes, she has.
Here is the Spanish language ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
It's titled, "Against us"
Hits on outsourcing, high CEO pay, being anti-immigration reform, supporting an Arizona style law in California. Ends with: "Carly Fiorina, she's not with us. Her only interest is her own."(A Spanish way of saying Out for herself, I suppose)  
[ Parent ]
DSCC versus NRSC
DSCC took in $15.5m in September. A record $27m for Q3. They began this month with $25.6m CoH.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

NRSC took in $8.3m in September. They had $19.2m CoH at the end of last month. Dems have raised roughly $15m more this cycle.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

The outside spending groups make this even more important.

Wow, good September.
   Where is all this money suddenly coming from?  Glad to see it.

 As far as I can see the following races deserve DSCC money:

  Wisconsin (Feingold's parochialism is less endearing every year), Colorado, Kentucky, Illinois, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Alaska (if McAdams wants it), and one of either Washington or New Hampshire.

  I don't believe Reid needs/deserves any more money.  I'm not sure if Boxer really needs money either - maybe a small buy.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Hopefully it means a smaller enthusiasm gap

[ Parent ]
Definitely not New Hampshire
I like the idea of playing offense in Alaska, though. Hit Sen. Murkowski on being entitled and Joe Miller for being an unethical huckster.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
NY-17
Hopefully you didn't fall for that bogus NY-17 poll! I know this guy Yossi Gestetner, he's an arogant stupid dreamer from dreamland, he also happens to work for Joe DioGuardi. Don't take it seriously, it's 100% bogus.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
so
has RCP put NY17 on the non-safe board yet?
[ Parent ]
Considering Obama
got some 72% of the vote there, I'm pretty sure not even they fell for that.  
[ Parent ]
But but but but
his blog is subtitled "Opinions shaped by facts -- not by ideology!"
[ Parent ]
NY-17
This guy is from Monsey, NY, a very conservative part of Rockland County, this dreamer was considering running for congress in NY-17 a few months ago, read back on his blog.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Weird how Ras find better numbers in CA than Ipsos
Boxer up just 1, Brown up just 4.

http://www.reuters.com/article...

Poor Meg
140 million dollars just to be underperforming Demon Sheep lady.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly the same as SurveyUSA
Fiorina hasn't budged since the last Ipsos poll (stuck at 45) while Boxer has lost three points. Hopefully it is people going undecided and she can close as in previous races.
[ Parent ]
Fiorina
Has a better chance than Whitman now. I would not be surprsied to see Fiorina/Brown win.  
[ Parent ]
I would be shocked to see Boxer lose
I'll wait for more polls.
[ Parent ]
No way in hell...
Especially not with the kind of aggressive campaign Boxer is running. I'd like to see the internals of this Ipsos poll to see if they have screwy internals like we saw when they polled Nevada last month.

Again, many of the polls this cycle are out of whack. The only two Cali polls I can safely trust are Field and PPIC. I'm awaiting word from them...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Will Field do it again before the election?
They are every 3 months, last time was September I think.  
[ Parent ]
Probably
They did a comprehensive series around Halloween 2008.  Given the closeness of so many races, I'm sure finding media clients for a final-week poll won't be a problem.
[ Parent ]
doubt it
I think Fiorina has hit her ceiling, and the last 15 or so likely voter polls all show Boxer with a lead. Fiorina is an utterly conventional Bush-type Republican of the sort that almost never wins statewide here, she isn't especially likable, and her tenure at HP is largely seen as a failure.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
45/46
Thats the thing that stands out to me.

Boxer's numbers fluctuates a lot more than Fiorina. Really the only difference between this poll in the last is that Boxer's share went down, while Fiorina's stayed the same.

Is Boxer being hit with a lot of negative ads right now?

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Fiorina apparently went quiet for a bit
Boxer had much of September to herself hence the surge in her polls. That would jibe with what we are seeing. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA both had her at 48 once. Personally I think that is her ceiling but I could be wrong.
[ Parent ]
ads
Both are running negative ads here in Sacramento, but Boxer has been more aggressive.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
The problem is, Fiorina/Whitman still won't budge past 45%
Perhaps I'll be proven wrong by the cross-tabs, but my hunch is the bulk of undecideds are female Independents. I definitely think for Fiorina to win, she needs to snatch the lead in most polling by election night. I'm less certain about Whitman/Brown, given a) Whitman may have a nice ground game set-up and b) Brown hasn't needed to form an aggressive ground game in a long, long time.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
They both remind me of McCain
That was all he ever seemed to hit no matter how weak Obama looked at various times before the crash.
[ Parent ]
Whitman's ground game
Which, if I had to guess, she probably spent around 20 million on, might end up dragging Fiorina across and her losing.  
[ Parent ]
Hit post to early
So, Whitman would have spent around 20 million to elect someone she hates, while she gets nothing.  
[ Parent ]
That would indeed be ironic
but I still see Whitman outperforming Fiorina by a point or two, unless Fiorina manages to land a body blow on Boxer.  I still have yet to meet a Brown/Fiorina voter... and can't quite imagine what the rationale behind that choice might be.
[ Parent ]
Actually, I think it's mostly Republicans that'd vote a Brown/Fiorina ticket
That Ipsos poll found Brown siphoning-off 17% of Republicans, while Fiorina has the GOP base completely locked-up. Could be that Hispanic GOP-ers are turned-off by Whitman but still like Fiorina.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Wishful Thinking. nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov: Tom Horner internal poll
Not often you get polling numbers from an Independent candidate but are some from Tom Horner that were in an E-mail to supporters. No word on the polling firm, dates, sample size so take with several thousand grains of salt.

http://www.minnpost.com/ericbl...

Dayton 38
Emmer 27
Horner 19

A couple interesting tidbits in the E-mail

There are also Horner supporters worried about wasting their vote. They too would consider another candidate. But contrary to the fearful narrative being put forth by the Republican party, those supporters would not help the GOP defeat Mark Dayton. Those Horner supporters, our polling found, would break to Dayton by more than a two-to-one ratio. The Star Tribune also found that more votes would break to Dayton than Emmer.

Our poll showed what we suspected. Either Dayton wins or Horner wins. Rep. Emmer has not been able to hold on to Republicans, has not been able to win over independents, and is simply not an electable statewide candidate.



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
When Ventura won
wasn't the break to him late in the election? Any idea what his numbers were at this stage? Was he rising yet, or did anyone know?
[ Parent ]
Ventura was about where Horner is now but...
... that is where the comparison ends IMO. I just don't see a sudden surge young people and infrequent voters showing up at the polls to vote for Horner the way they did for Jesse.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
The Low-Information Voters Tune In Right Before The Buzzer.....
....as previous would-be Minnesota Governors Skip Humphrey and Tim Penny can attest to.  In four of the last five Minnesota gubernatorial elections, the candidate who led in the polls in mid-October lost the race.  Dayton shouldn't get comfortable....because Horner's always just one impressive public appearance away from being elected Governor.
[ Parent ]
It would probably take a gaffe
From Dayton too.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Mark is usually incredibly pessimistic about Minnesota's DFL. His write up of the gubernatorial race was far too bullish about Horner. Minnesota isn't that quirky.  
[ Parent ]
Mark is incredibly pessimistic period
Apparently 90 House seats are about to be washed away. As a point of contrast I believe Tekzilla is thinking around 50. Doesn't mean to say he is definitely wrong just very unlikely to be right IMO.
[ Parent ]
I'm a Pessimist By Nature.....
....but especially this cycle, generic polling data was showing numbers I had never seen before, with voters planning to dump THEIR OWN Congressperson by a nearly 2-1 margin.  That's why I forecasted long ago that the battleground was about 50 seats larger than anyone believed.  So far, with poll after poll showing Democrats nobody believed to be vulnerable in various degrees of trouble, I feel my pessimism has largely been vindicated.
[ Parent ]
Mostly GOP polls
But we will see soon enough.
[ Parent ]
Funny
because I remember on Election Projection back in late 2005 that you were quite optimistic that Bush's unpopularity would result in sweeping Dem wins the following year.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
He says 80, not 90. And he has Beebe and Mike Ross losing! I think...
...he's REALLY going to be champ-or-chump in 3 weeks.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Beebe losing?
LOL! He's up by an average of 52.5 to 40. So the polls are off by a mere 13 points. In that case he needs to adjust his numbers up to 120-150 seats.  
[ Parent ]
Remember Roy Barnes in 2002???
Barnes was another southern Democratic Governor in a state where Republicans were poised to have a huge year.  His poll lead was in the high single digits in the final months of the campaign (not sure where he was over the summer) until his six-point defeat on election night.  Same dynamic in Arkansas this year with a massive GOP tsunami coming and an incumbent Democratic Governor whose poll numbers have already dropped by half since earlier this year.  That's why I believe Beebe will be washed away with every other Democrat on the ballot in Arkansas next month.
[ Parent ]
I remember Barnes pissing off a lot of Georgians
Beebe is one of the most popular Governors in the nation. I haven't heard anyone call him "King Mike" or compare him to rat.
[ Parent ]
Sorry to break it to you
but you know nothing about Arkansas if you think that will happen. Beebe will win with around 58%, and Democrats will hold onto every statewide office, plus AR-01, Lincoln will get 46%, and the GOP will make minimal gains in the legislature. I personally guarantee it.  
[ Parent ]
Um...
is that like the dream scenario?

The two nonpartisan polls here have both had Crawford up by more than 10. Causey is not running an amazing campaign and Arkansas is going to go big time Republican this year with the exception of AR-GOV. Furthermore, Causey's warchest is half of Rick Crawford's.

Concerning Blanche Lincoln ... why do you think she is going to get 46? No poll has her over 40 this year!

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Actually I Averaged My 80-100 Threshold To 90......
And I'm sticking with it.  But you're right that I'm the most out on a limb with my predictions.  Of course, I'd love nothing more than to be disastrously wrong here.  I'll gladly settle for being a chump if Dem losses are half or less what I'm expecting.
[ Parent ]
Do you even know how insane that number is?
There hasn't been anything close to that since 1940, and for good reason, things have changed in campaigning, incumbent-protection, and the strength of the parties.

I'd have no problem betting you $100 with 5-1 that Democrats stay below a 70 seat loss.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
He clearly doesn't know how insane that number is......
But hey, he's sticking with it!

And yes it's completely insane.

All the nonpartisan campaign analysts are saying the net GOP gain will be between 40 and 60.  A few starry-eyed partisan GOP analysts are saying 60+.  No one is saying 90.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In his email, Horner claims that Dayton, not Emmer, is the second choice
 of most current Horner supporters.
Is there polling evidence to this (apart from that unseen internal Horner poll which may or may not actually exist).

People who actually don't want to 'waste their vote' will switch from Horner when they mark their ballots- but to whom?

[ Parent ]
Id really like to see his information
Because I can argue it a lot of different ways in my head.  People want tax increases but are terrified of Dayton's plan so they're settling for Horner.  Does that mean they've already written off Dayton then?  Or would they rather have a lot more taxes or none?

I also dont think as many people as you'd think will switch their votes day of.  And Pollster isnt helpful as it doesnt show the percentage the Indy candidate was getting in polls in 2006 for comparison purposes.  But he did about what people figured based off of polling.

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: Hitting Coats from the right

Ellsworth's campaign is putting this ad on the air tonight, apparently. No idea how much money they're putting behind it. It's hard to say whether it'll have any effectiveness, frankly. As I've mentioned before, this is pretty much the same route of attack Ellsworth's campaign has been using ever since he entered the race; at the same time, Ellsworth's ran so few ads that it's hard to say whether this message has been distributed broadly enough to have been proved or disproved as a good attack. I think the variation of attacking Coats on abortion is new, though.

One other thing: Coats has absolutely dominated Ellsworth in the last fundraising quarter. I have to say that doesn't really come as a surprise, given that Coats likely has quite a lot of old friends to call in favors from, while even the most partisan Dems would probably see a donation to Ellsworth as a waste of money at this point. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Ellsworth should run on his days as Sheriff.
The Lawman vs the Lobbyist.  
[ Parent ]
He's been doing that
Ellsworth's website and his mailers are plastered with these images of him standing by police cars. Hell, his campaign's banner image on his site and on their lawn signs includes a five-pointed sheriff's star. It's pretty easy to forget at times that Ellsworth is a two-term Congressman.

The only problem with doing that is that Coats and the NRSC can easily stick a pin in the balloon by talking about Ellsworth's votes for the stimulus and for HCR, at which point, it's more difficult for Ellsworth to not have to run at least somewhat on his congressional record.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I have to say
I've seen his first ad at least 3 times a day. Pretty much everyday and I don't watch tv that much.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
That ad should've been up months ago
n/t

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
How anti-abortion is Indiana? n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Well if it helps
Evan Bayh was pro-choice.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Fairly pro-life I'd say
But when it comes down to, a lot of pro-life people vote against the strictest legislation once they see the effect it has, and I'm speaking of when it was brought to public referendums.  
[ Parent ]
Well prochoice in the
Sense that he is personally opposed to it, but supports a womans right to choose. As long as you don't stand in the way it counts.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I meant self identified
pro-lifers who probably make up a majority of IN's electorate.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if any statewide polling has been done on the issue, at least recently
But I'd say that IN is one of the most socially conservative states in the old North. I don't know what it's like in the northern part of the state, but in the southeast, where I'm from, pretty much any candidate for the state legislature or for federal office aggressively and repeatedly touts their pro-life credentials. I doubt that's too different from anywhere outside of the 2nd and 7th districts and perhaps some of the more liberal enclaves like Bloomington.

FWIW, Donnelly and Ellsworth I believe were both members of the Stupak bloc, and Hill also campaigns as a pro-lifer, albeit less strongly than the other two.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Well
yeah that's because a lot of legislators have to make themselves conservative. They feel they have to run as pro-lifers to build up conservative cred. I know a certain state rep in our area (you know who I am talking about I'm sure) who is running as an ultra conservative pro life, pro gun, anti immigration type of guy but lets just say I personally know he is really none of those things but he has to do what he has to do right. Also Hill is not pro life. I do not think he has ever out right claimed to be and he is not. Now he does try and make himself look conservative on the issue and some people think he is because he never talks up his pro choice views but he is definitely pro choice and votes it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Good point about Hill
Guess I got a little carried away, as you're right. I forgot to check VoteSmart's interest group ratings, where he's obviously shown to be at least moderately pro-choice.

Hill's so effectively enigmatic on the issue that it even took me in!  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Well
he is obviously not going to run on social issues and I think a lot of people just assume he is pro-life because they are so used to conservative pro-life dems in the area.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I've got another reason to hope he wins now
I'm actually pretty surprised to learn that. Hill really is something of an anomaly for a conservative Dem.

By the way, did you read anything about the debate between Hill and Young? I was impressed with Young going after Hill on HCR and Hill responding that he was proud of voting for the bill, instead of trying to run away from it.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
No
I did not read much about it. Where there any clear winners? Glad to see Hill defend HCR, he is probably one of the best blue dogs in the House. At least in the top ten. My friend is going to the one Monday and she will be texting me constant updates.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sounds indecisive
The articles strewn about the news sites don't suggest anyone did too badly, although Hill was apparently booed by the audience for a crack about how Young had "given in to the Tea Party". We'll see how the one on Monday goes.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
We
are pro life but it is not that big of issue to be completely honest with you. I mean I do not doubt the majority of the state is pro life but I do not think it is something a whole lot of people actually vote on. I mean had JLT been pro-life she would have lost with the same percent of the vote and Bayh would have won with the same percent of the vote. I do not think the state is overall utterly live and die pro life. I am fairly certain Daniels is still a closet pro-choicer, he changed his position on the issue before running for Governor. It is no secret and it has never hurt him. Also Bayh is pro-choice and Hill is basically pro-choice as well. Lugar is pretty neutral on abortion, he claims to be pro-life but I think he is more to the left. Donnelly is pro life because he has to be (HUGE Catholic district). Ellsworth is genuinely pro-life, I have heard him speak and I truly believe it. Though I do not think his position on abortion is going to help or hurt Ellsworth. Now guns, that is something that matters.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Overall, IN isn't that passionate about social issues
As conservative as the state is, it doesn't seem like social issues are very dominant. Sure, most Hoosiers are pretty socially conservative, but it's more of a temperamental thing, rather than a fire-breathing, Deep South kind of thing.  
[ Parent ]
CA-Sen: Fiorina raises $9 million in 3rd qt
When you include the Fiorina/NRSC joint victory fund.  
http://www.carlyforca.com/2010...
MN-01
The local ABC affiliate, KAAL, is teasing a poll that shows a tight race in MN-01 for their 6pm newscast

http://kaaltv.com/article/stor...

I have not seen any public or leaked internals for this race so it will be interesting the results even if it is from my least favorite pollster, Survey USA.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Umm
There was a public poll about 2 days ago from the Hill that showed it a two point race, (and that was without hte Tea Party third party candidate as an option).  
[ Parent ]
I believe the was MI-01, not MN-01


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Oh
MN-01 a close race? What crazy-ass poll is SUSA gonna release now? Waltz down 15 among 18-34 voters?
[ Parent ]
Keep Us Apprised.....
.....of the results the second my old hometown station announces them.  I got the sense the last time I visited home Walz was about to have a race on his hands.
[ Parent ]
I actually had to hook up my antenna
While I only live 20 miles from KAAL for some reason DirectTV gives me the Twin Cities stations as my locals (Which is fine by me). As a results I have not seen a single ad for this race and about a thousand for the MN-06 race.

BTW the did release poll numbers in MN-01 for the Governors race. Pretty much the same as their statewide numbers released yesterday.

Dayton 43
Emmer 35
Horner 13

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I Grew Up In Northwestern Freeborn County.....
I'm guessing within 20 miles or so from where you live.  My parents don't have any satellites so KAAL, KIMT, or KTTC are the three options.  I was just bragging to a Republican on a message board about 10 days ago that MN-01 was a lost cause for Republicans or else Demmer would be on the airwaves and releasing internal polls indicating his competitiveness.  Not two days later, the NRCC gave Demmer a big gulp of money and last weekend when I was home Demmer owned the airwaves.

Surprising that Dayton is doing so well in MN-01.  If he's winning in Rochester, which would seem like prime Horner country, he's almost definitely winning the state.  I'm betting that Dayton is overperforming in the southwestern MN counties of MN-01 where Dayton would be the only familiar name on the ballot given that they're in the Sioux Falls media market.  Just a guess.

[ Parent ]
MN-01 Survey USA poll results
Walz (D) 47
Demmer (R) 42
Wilson (IP) 4
Johnson (I) 2
Undecided 5

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Decent even without considering the source

[ Parent ]
I Sure Walz Has Some Good Ads in The Can.....
....because I doubt Demmer was within five points of him two weeks ago before Demmer deluged the airwaves with his own ads.
[ Parent ]
Another canine-based ad
I Don't Recall All These Mysterious Rumors Floating Around.....
....about polls indicating unexpectedly close races in 2006 or 2008.  Was our team simply not savvy enough to circulate this "buzz" in the last two cycles?  Or is 2010 simply that much more toxic of an election cycle for Democrats than either 2006 or 2008 was for Republicans?
Republicans are better at BS
You should know that.
[ Parent ]
NY-19: SEIU dropping $249K on ads, mailers
First major action from an IE here in a while.
Pinch of salt time
But, while UNH have Guinta up big they also have Kuster up 7!
Linky
[ Parent ]
I feel so validated
in some ways, for saying that Kuster would probably surge and beat Bass once she got her name recognition up, and that what's more Bass is really running quite a lethargic campaign. I'm sorry, you don't say, on the eve of an election, (as he did in 2006), that voters shouldn't vote for Democrats because that's what the terrorists want them to do, and have a future in a fairly liberal seat. NH-02 is about 10 points to the left of NH-01 and that means it's more likely to stay Democratic this time.

I don't know, I'll try not to get too optimistic. UNH has a craptastic polling record, almost as bad as ARG. I can believe the NH-02 numbers simply because they fit my logic and I've been predicting them. NH-01 seems off though, I want other numbers. Guinta has no financial advantage and went through a divisive Republican primary, and the local establishment is in many ways tepid towards plus he was an awful mayor of Manchester and Shea-Porter has two terms of incumbency and a great grass roots organization now. I think NH-01 should be close to tied, even with the rough wave of fiscal conservatism there and the fact that Ayotte will win the district, (Hodes root to winning is to keep her margin close there). But I still think Shea-Porter should be saved by the fact Republicans nominated an awful candidate who is too conservative for the district.  

[ Parent ]
UNH is awful indeed
But if you can believe in some sort of internal consistency in the sample, then Kuster is +7 even while Ayotte is +15.  I doubt that Ayotte is +15 (even Ras had Ayotte +7).  I would take that as good news, maybe that Kuster has a real lead, and maybe that Shea-Porter is closer to a tie.  But who knows with UNH.

Again, not from NH, but I'm not sure that Kuster only winning 18-34 by +7 while winning 50+ by greater margins is realistic.  This poll has 12% of 18-34 voting for "Other".  What is that?

Their sample in NH-1 for 18-34 is 28 people, their sample in NH-2 is 24 people.  MoE on that age group is probably unreliable, making up 6.6% of the NH-2 sample, but I assume they have to weight it so they make up 20% or so of the electorate.

[ Parent ]
Very unrealistic
Obama's strongest group was younger voters there; he won 61% of that Demographic.  
[ Parent ]
MTV/AP poll of 18-24 year old college students
show Obama approval at 44% and 27% disapprove and he is at 34% approval and 37% disapprove among white students.

http://www.google.com/hostedne...

Some probably feel let down by him not delivering on the things he campaigned on or the bad economy or the trillion plus dollar deficits. The fact is, past performance does not guarantee future results.  

[ Parent ]
No, but
my generation has consistently been the most liberal, and those poor ratings are most likely because young voters haven't thought he was liberal enough.  
[ Parent ]
Latest Gallup weekly
Has the 18-29 age group approving 53 percent.
[ Parent ]
Yup, I'm just saying those
numbers are probably even higher. Plus Dems lead big in the generic ballot in the 18-29 group.  
[ Parent ]
It was higher
The last few weeks have gone 59, 55, 52, 57, 53. Also interesting to see his approval with Hispanics - 53, 58, 49, 61, 65. LordMike was hyperventilating over that 49 percenter two weeks ago!
[ Parent ]
I live in one of the most liberal college towns in America - New Paltz, NY
The bulk of Democrats here are young, progressive, grassroots Green Party types, many of who toyed with the idea of voting for Cynthia McKinney in '08. I suspect the 34/37 number would hold true for the overall student body - just about everyone, especially the most political, here seems at least somewhat underwhelmed by his administration.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
WOW! JUST WOW! Well it will be nice to save one seat up in NH! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Groan.
   Blue Hampshire constantly makes fun of UNH for polling "Faux Hampshire."

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Hence the salt

[ Parent ]
You shouldn't be consuming
so much salt, bad for your blood pressure.

[ Parent ]
Salt is the least of my worries in that regard
Every year at this time for some reason. I think I will go lie in a darkened room for a few weeks early next month.
[ Parent ]
I should give up booze until EDay
It'll be post-election depression, Thanksgiving, weekend Holiday Parties, and then Christmas and New Years.
[ Parent ]
Agreed.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I will give Haley Barbour his props
As many issues as I have with the guy, he has turned the RGA into a pretty potent weapon this cycle. The RGA completely destroyed Tim Cahill and Chris Daggett's Independent gubernatorial campaigns and helped salvage Nathan Deal from what should have destroyed him in Georgia.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04
Still say he is your dark horse for 2012

[ Parent ]
As a Dem, I actually hope he's the nominee
I think Barbour would be one of the weakest candidates Obama could face. But the upshot is that Barbour is actually relatively moderate and competent. Don't get me wrong: he's still quite conservative and I'm sure I would hate his presidency were he to win, but I wouldn't fear for the country like I would if, say, Palin or Gingrich were president.  
[ Parent ]
I don't
With Barbour, you don't have to worry about him being off message (Gingrich, Palin, Huck) or fundraising. He is relentlessly on message, and he does not have the problems Romney has (MassCare). Barbour, IMO, is one of the strongest candidates we have.  
[ Parent ]
Barbour
I'm hoping he takes the job as the head of the RNC instead.  But I'm totally open as to who the nominee for Prez will be.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
He already had that job, right?
Would he want it again?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
There are 2 people close to him
I'd rather see take it. His nephew, MS RNC Committeeman Henry Barbour, or RGA exec director Nick Ayers. I hope Barbour runs in 2012.  
[ Parent ]
There are 2 people close to him
I'd rather see take it. His nephew, MS RNC Committeeman Henry Barbour, or RGA exec director Nick Ayers. I hope Barbour runs in 2012.  
[ Parent ]
There are three possible Republican presidential candidates I might vote for
I would take an even look at Gov. Mitch Daniels, Gary E. Johnson, and Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr., although I definitely don't expect Huntsman to run against President Obama (although I'd like to see him as a candidate in 2016).

I will not vote for Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Gov. Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sen. Thune, Gov. Jindal, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Susana Martinez, Rep. Cantor, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Rep. Pence, John Bolton, Gov. Pawlenty, Sen. DeMint, Gov. Christie, or Rep. Ryan as president under any circumstances.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
And
he wants the GOP to become a big tent party again by electing more moderates from the northeast, claiming that primarying out moderates is counterproductive.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
He can say that
And get away with it to, because he has made nice with the Tea Party and they love him for his gov candidates and the fact that he did not get (openly) involved in contested primaries, and when he did, it was candidates they loved (Haley and MArtinez)  
[ Parent ]
No, no, no
He is not competent. He has been an awful governor. Anyone in Mississippi who has been paying attention hates him. He has been absolutely horrible on the whole and he also has major corruption issues.

Not to mention, as my the Republican husband of my second cousin told me, frankly, Barbour's biggest problem is that whenever he talks he sounds like the stupidest redneck imaginable.  

[ Parent ]
which is exactly why he's DOA nationally
We wont be electing a white man with a Southern hick accent for a long time after what we went through with Bush.
[ Parent ]
As I said...
... I'm only saying that compared to some of the other pickings in the field - Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee, etc. - Barbour would be better relative to them. (Not a high bar, I know.) So my point is that with Barbour, not only would we get someone who would probably be very beatable, but if he WERE to win, I wouldn't quite fear for the country the way I would if Gingrich, Palin, or even Huckabee were in charge.  
[ Parent ]
Barbour is not crazy
But if you think he would run the country as something other than a hard right-winger, I'd like you to show evidence. I'd say more but don't want to get into arguments about specific issues.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
"Not crazy" is all I'm saying
And compared to Palin and Gingrich, that's a plus.  
[ Parent ]
GW Bush isn't crazy, either
One could argue about how smart he is or what his motivations were. I'd say he was an evil president but wouldn't want to argue the point here. And I don't think Barbour is any less right-wing.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I don't see it yet
Every time he speaks before party events, he has a similar theme: party unity. You can tell he still calculates like he is chair of the RNC (which is why he is so effective in the RGA). But in a presidential primary that is going to be skeptical of 'the establishment', Barbour represents what the party base will be trying to throw out.  

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04
[ Parent ]
Harry Reid Q3
Just $2.8m raised but incredibly they have roughly the same $4m CoH. Fiscal conservatism is easier said than done.
Angle's Money Burn
"especially when your fundraising strategy is centered around direct mail appeals to small donors (including me... I just got another Sharron Angle snail-mail pitch yesterday)."

I got on her snail-mail list too. Direct mail is expensive enough; I wonder how much of it is going to people who are obviously on the other side of the aisle. If it's significant, no wonder she's got only $4.1 million left despite raising $14 million.

I, too, have received direct mail pitches from Sharron Angle.
It came in an expensive-looking little pouch with a fake post-it note imploring me to help her knock off Harry Reid.  For a second, I though it was some sort of reverse psychology from the DSCC to get me to donate to Harry Reid (especially considering it's a DC address).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Well
I am inexplicably on David Vitter and Charlie Melancon's email list. I really don't quite get it. The only email list I ever signed up was the DNC's in 2006.  
[ Parent ]
they get you in so many ways
Ive finally been able to keep my Gmail under wraps and I can only think of one or two email lists Im on that I dont care to be.
[ Parent ]
Cost
I can understand email lists being thrown around more carelessly than dead-tree lists. The cost of sending an extra email is just about nil. But the cost of sending senseless letters can add up.

I've gotten letters and "surveys" from some other conservative organizations as well. (Did you know that the ACLU is the greatest threat to America?) But I think the Angle letters are the only ones I've gotten from a Republican candidate's campaign.

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/15 | 196 comments

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