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SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 4:18 PM EDT


• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Russ Feingold and Tom Barrett are both out with internal polls today, both from the same pollster (Fairbanks Maslin), both showing tied races. The Senate poll (Oct. 7, and 10-11) shows Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson tied at 48-48. The gubernatorial poll was an entirely separate sample, Oct. 5-7, showing Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are at 47-47.

• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (10/10, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (37)
Nathan Deal (R): 49 (45)
John Monds (L): 3 (5)
Undecided: 7 (13)
(MoE: ±4%)

If you're wondering about downballot races, IA also has GOPer Casey Cagle leading Carol Porter in the LG race, 50-36, and GOPer Sam Olen leading Ken Hodges in the AG race, 50-40. Also, if you're wondering how Nathan Deal seemed to regain his footing after a few rocky weeks where the race was seemingly tied, a lot of that seems to have to do with the RGA pouring money into this race ($3.2 million worth), as they've tacitly made this race one of their top priorities.

• AZ-05: Although this is an internal poll that has the GOPer leading the incumbent Dem, it's a little on the lackluster side. David Schweikert responds to the DCCC internal giving Harry Mitchell an 7-point lead with his own poll showing him up by only 2, 45-43. (The poll was taken 10/5-6 by National Research.) An incumbent at 43% is no good, of course, but averaging the two polls out (for whatever that's worth) gives Mitchell a small edge.

• NY-20, TN-08: What do these two races (one with a Blue Dog incumbent who seems in control of his race, the other an open seat with an aspiring Blue Dog not likely to win) have in common? In both races, the Dem said he wouldn't support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. Scott Murphy's decision (granted, he's more of a waffle than a flat-out "no") is much more surprising than Roy Herron's; we'll have to see if this becomes more of a trend in the closing weeks.

• OH-13: Tom Ganley has pulled his broadcast television advertising for the remaining weeks of the campaign, although he will be focusing on less-expensive cable and radio buys instead of going dark completely. He says that's how he's going to "cut through the clutter," but somehow methinks the self-funder (savvy businessman that he is) realized that he shouldn't throw his own money down the hole in a race that just got considerably more difficult once sex assault accusations started to fly. (H/t LookingOver.)

• PA-13: Here's an unremarkable internal from a race where we shouldn't even have to be looking at one: Allyson Schwartz, in the D+7 NE Philly district, leads Dee Adcock 57-32 in a 10/5-6 poll from Cooper & Secrest. Apparently this was released to combat rumors of a Republican internal showing it a single-digit race.

• SD-AL: This was the day's big fundraising story until Sharron Angle showed up: the reason Kristi "Leadfoot" Noem was driving so fast was because she had to get to so many different donors' houses. She raised $1.1 million for the quarter, compared to $550K for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. That actually gives Noem the CoH edge, $770K to $500K.

• TN-03: Here's one more place I wouldn't think I'd be seeing an internal, considering that this GOP-held open seat in a dark-red district should be a slam-dunk this year, but I guess Chuck Fleischmann feels like he needs to look busy. The GOP nominee is leading Dem nominee John Wolfe by a 50-20 margin, in a poll (no dates) by Wilson Research.

• DCCC: More news on the triage front, on what's apparently the last day to cancel ad reservations without taking a big financial hit. Having thrown Steve Driehaus overboard yesterday, the DCCC followed up today with Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03 and Suzanne Kosmas in FL-24, who won't get any more ad cover according to the NYT. Aaron Blake also tweets that open seats KS-03, IN-08, and TN-08 got the axe.

• AGs: You probably know Louis Jacobson of Governing magazine for his handicapping of state legislative chambers, but he also works the state AG beat (that's often short for "Aspiring Governor," so it's a key bench-building step), and is out with handicapping for all the Attorney General races up this year. As you might expect, Dems should brace for some losses, especially in open seats.

• Gerrymandering: If there's any place where people would be psyched to sit down and watch a movie about gerrymandering, it's here at SSP. The movie's creator is up with a diary here that lists all the theaters where it's opening over the next month (including where he'll be hosting Q&As). Some of them are one-night engagements, starting as early as tonight, so check out the listings ASAP!

• SSP TV:
• CO-Sen: The DSCC hits Ken Buck for his craptastic tenure working for the local US Attorney's office
• KY-Sen: The DSCC goes back to the $2,000 Medicare deductible issue yet again to hit Rand Paul
• WA-Sen: I'm not sure why Washington Dems always wait until the last minute to remind voters that Dino Rossi is pro-life (that's what happened in both gube races) -- maybe they figure it's their trump card -- but they're doing it again; meanwhile, the American Action Network hits Patty Murray by whipping up a second version of that weird Fred Davis ad with the tennis shoes walking on people
• WI-Sen: One of Russ Feingold's myriad problems is that Ron Johnson actually comes up with some effective ads: this one's a bio spot
• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal's new ad hits Roy Barnes for having once said that "Mexican workers were good for Georgia"
• SC-Gov: The suddenly resurgent Vince Sheheen's out with another spot, this one equating Nikki Haley to protégé Mark Sanford
• TX-Gov: Lone Star First (a DGA-backed group) hits Rick Perry on the HPV vaccine and links to Big Pharma
• OH-13: EMILY's List steers clear of the sex assault allegations of Tom Ganley, going with a humorous spot on outsourcing and his 400 civil lawsuits at his car dealerships

• Rasmussen:
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 44%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%
• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 34%, Rob Portman (R) 57%
• TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 59%
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

• Rasmussen (as Fox/Pulse):
• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 45%, Tom Foley (R) 41%
• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 49%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 38%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 47%
• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 35%, Rob Portman (R) 52%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• Angus-Reid: Another reason to be suspicious of Angus-Reid in addition to their Dem-friendly internet samples: they seem to have neglected to poll the actually interesting Senate race in New York...
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 63%, Carl Paladino (R) 32%
• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D) 67%, Jay Townsend (R) 27%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Afternoon Edition) | 168 comments
IL-Sen: Kirk says he's going to send vote-monitors
to 4 predominantly AA areas to prevent voter fraud.  Um, what?
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...

There's a recording at that link of him saying it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

guh
He's going to send his Illinois Nazis.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
That must go
over very will in the AA community.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I'm suprised...
that he doesn't try to break out a civics literacy test amendment while he's at it...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Let me embed the recording


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg/Selzer national poll
Here are the survey results for the poll I saw referenced in a Business Week article late last night:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/...

The generic ballot looks decent for Dems at 42D/40R, though 12% choose "other"! I'm not sure what that means.

On tax policy, only 34% want the Bush rates to continue for the upper income brackets.

47% say they want HCR repealed, though in typically contradictory American fashion, most of the bill's provisions are wildly popular, including: Preexisting conditions exclusions (75% approval), donut hole reduction (73), kids though 26 on parents' policies (67), state-based exchanges (60). Plus, respondents are MORE likely to vote for someone who supported HCR by 45/40.

Obama approval = 47/48

Obama vs. Palin trial heat for 2012: 51/35

I means a whole lot of voters...
Don't know what they really want.

And it means what I've been suspecting for some time, which is that these "generic ballot" polls have been all over the place and there's no real signal of some massive "Red Tide" washing out all the Dems next month.

HCR just needs to be explained more. The components of it are already gaining popularity. Once the "Obamacare" scare campaign fades into the dust bowl of history, I suspect we won't see it repealed (only expanded upon in the future).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
The poll is very interesting
one of the questions was about anonymous business groups supporting/advertising for the candidates - it overwhelming makes voters less likely to support a candidate.

That would mean that the DNCs attack on the Chamber of Congress for anonymous/foreign contributions could prove to be an effective attack.

And the healthcare questions just make me shake my head....I was surprised by how many support mandatory insurance.

And the 1% of former Obama supporters angry and actively opposing him and only 3% disappointed was surprisingly low. The moral of this election seems to be, people seem to hold the same political views that they did in 2008, but Dems just aren't turning out.  

[ Parent ]
Right...
CNBC covered the poll last night with a headline about how many Obama supporters are drifting away from him. Anyone who voted for Obama who said they weren't absolutely thrilled with him were counted as "drifting away." What garbage.
[ Parent ]
but Dem incumbents aren't campaigning
on the "wildly popular" particulars of the hcr bill, are they? At least I'm not seeing that in Iowa. So you have very loud opposition to the bill and people who would be expected to defend the bill attacking their GOP opponents instead.
[ Parent ]
They are here in Nevada...
In fact, at last night's NV-03 debate IMHO Rep. Dina Titus (D-Henderson) whooped Joe Heck's you-know-what on HCR. Basically he tried to say he supported all the benefits but didn't like this and that, and she hit him HARD on flip-flopping on HCR. (A few weeks ago, Heck said he wanted everything repealed.)

And of course, we've all followed how Harry Reid turned what was thought to be Sharron Angle's biggest strength into her biggest weakness by hitting so hard on her flip flops on insurance mandates.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I want to see what else comes out...
Before I declare Russ Feingold "The Comeback Kid" of this cycle. What is he doing in Wisconsin? What's his campaign like?

Again, y'all know I have my doubts about much of the public polling this cycle, but if even one's own internals only show a tie (while everyone else sees a mid-to-high single digit deficit), Feingold's in some deep doo-doo.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Feingold is probably still behind
But he really hammered Johnson in a debate yesterday. If you were a betting man, Johnson would still be smart money but I don't think he's dead man walking like many on this board seem to think
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I'm not saying he's dead...
But IMHO someone needs to light a fire on Feingold's behind to get him campaigning the way he should be. The ads I see on YouTube are weak sauce. I just hope his field campaign saves him.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Feingold's running
A similar campaign as he's run in the past. The same reason so many love him is what holds him back as a campaigner, he's never going to have a lot of money and he's never going to really attack his opponents.

If he loses its going to be because of the environment because he ran a similar level campaign in 2004 and won comftorably. And I'd say the only difference between Michels and Johnson is that Johnson's run better ads although perhaps coincidentally Michels was a lot more telegenic. Both are average-below average speakers that Feingold runs circles around as speakers and in debates

[ Parent ]
I had a bad Feingold omen last night.
At my local 99¢ Only store in the book section amongst all the 5 year old almanacs and other junk books, were several copies of "Feingold: A New Democratic Party" (2007).

And I stood there thinking: here someone has basically junked all these "Feingold" books, just like Feingold himself may be junking his career by running such a lackluster campaign at the same time.

(Though I really don't need another political book on my to-be-read shelves, I may blow 99¢ on one next time I'm there, even if he may be an ex-Senator by the time I ever get around to it. The reader reviews on Amazon were very good.)

[ Parent ]
AZ-05: Mitchell and the so-called 50% rule
If the two internal polls are complementary -- i.e. if they can be averaged out, Mitchell can pull it out.

At least according to Nate -- per something I posted yesterday at http://www.swingstateproject.c...

based on http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

For those incumbents who were leading in the polls, but below 50% (like Mitchell)

If you combine the three types of incumbents - House, Senate, gubernatorial - they had a record of 67-16, which equates to a winning percentage of 81 percent. Depending on how you define the term, they may not have been "safe" for re-election - but certainly, most were favorites.

And there was only a slight overall break towards the challenger

On average, the incumbent candidates led by 7.7 points in the polls with 30 days to go; they won their elections by an average of 7.3 points. That's not a significant difference, needless to say.

And the "rule" holds up least in the House:

In fact, however, the House incumbents in our sample did very well: 32 out of 35 of them won their races, or 91 percent:

Though Nate identifies a weakness in his numbers

I'm referring to here is a "lo-fi" version that weights for sample size and the recency of the poll, but not for pollster quality.

Strange Part
Which Nate notes - if your an incumbent who's down by any margin, you are "dead." While a challenger is only mostly dead. The data doesn't explain that gap.
[ Parent ]
Which suggests that it's rare
for incumbents to get significantly more than 50% of undecideds under such circumstances.

Triage category right there -- if an incumbent is not at least tied by some compendium of credible polls,

then money is not worth spending in that race.

(Though there's probably some "chicken and egg" element there, as incumbents who are credibly behind probably have historically lost funding this close to election day; i.e. what's the cause and what's the effect.)

[ Parent ]
Ras vs. PPP
One interesting thing that I just noticed is that Ras has Angle up 2. PPP has Reid up 2. Depending on who you want to believe (both are likely within the MOE) this is a +4 R advantage with Ras. If you believe that this holds across the board and want to believe PPP then Strickland is down 1 to Kasich, Alexi is up 5 on Kirk and Murray is up 3 to Rossi. I don't really know what to think as the polls are all tight and Nate has discussed a "House" effect of Ras. I also really hate cherry picking things advantageous. However, I do think that this does confirm that Strickland has made this a race and that Alexi/Murray will be very close calls but both have the benefit of favorable electoral bases. Strickland rising is going to help a ton for down ballot races like Zack Space, John Boccierri and Betty Sutton I would really have to think.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
Does anyone here know if any states will be releasing
early voting #s by party? IA has released absentee #s and I am sure some states released early voting #s in 2008.  
In Nevada....
... Clark county (Vegas)  and Washoe county (Reno) released early voting by party in 2008 (Clark and Washoe account for about 85% of the states population). The rest of the state just released total numbers.

IIRC North Carolina also breaks down early voting by party. I am sure there others as well.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Thanks. I'll keep an eye out for those numbers.

[ Parent ]
Matt Blunt
(Call me stupid if I missed something here, but I think he isn't running for anything), Is Matt Blunt running for something this year, or is he prepping to run against McCaskill in '12, to make Dad and Son senators from Missouri, I see that he's advertising on Google to his website touting accomplishments etc., but no mention of any race. I got the Blunt ad on this site.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
That would be awesome news
For Claire McCaskill. She would crush him. Run, Blunt Jr., run!

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Blunt
If Blunt were to run for Prez I would think a good running mate would be possible VT GOP Gov candidate - Blunt and Dubie!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
heh
Too bad there aren't any politicians named Roach.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
WA Senate Good news in Elway poll out shows Murray up 51-38
When "leaners" are added in the poll results are Murray 55, Rossi 40.

Elway polls from registered voter lists. He uses live polling and he calls cell as well as land lines. When only live polling is examined in this race, Murray has led consistently with a lead that began growing in early September and continues to grow.

Party ID in the poll was 39% Democratic, 26% Republican and 35% Independent.

26% of poll participants were from King County. That is higher than with other pollsters that released such data but slightly lower than the King County percentage of the electorate in 2002 and 2006 and substantially lower than the percentage in 2008.

According to the website
it was of likely voters, not registered voters. And it may be a tad too optimistic. But hey, it's been a long time since we've seen a WA-Sen poll that wasn't automated or GOP-affiliated.
[ Parent ]
Could you post the link?
I am having trouble finding it. Thanks.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Never Mind. Posted below


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
One caveat about the Elway Poll...
It seems to persistently poll in favor of the Democrats:

In 2008, the last two Elway polls showed Gregoire ahead by 16 percent and 12 percent while other polls showed a close race. Gregoire won by 6 percent. This is a thirteen or 15 percent difference (depending on whether you go with leaners), so likely Murray is ahead, but maybe not by that much.

The last poll in this race had Murray ahead by nine.


[ Parent ]
it is a tad
optimistic, like I said. But it's nice to see a poll that's not automated.
[ Parent ]
Elway
It's a generally respected poll.  It's final presidential poll in '08 had Obama winning the state by 19.  He won it by 17.
[ Parent ]
Story
[ Parent ]
It is of likely voters. My reference to registered was to describe
how Elway selects his pool. He does not use random digit dialing as both Rasmussen and SURVEY USA do.
[ Parent ]
Wow!
This IS a great polling day. Haven't had one of these in a while.

Here's the link:
http://www.publicola.net/wp-co...

[ Parent ]
Polls
Just wait for The Hill's House polling dump tomorrow morning, I wonder if the smiles will stay or it'll be a polling day like last Wed.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
That's for the House...
Today's numbers are mostly Senate.

I expect The Hill's numbers (which are sponsored by the Natural Gas Association, by the way) will be tough for Dems, especially since I believe they're looking at open seats this week. Only a few open seats seem potentially competitive, as far as I can tell, including perhaps Kuster in NH-02 and Heck in WA. It's possible they could have a few pieces of good news for Dems in IL-10 and DE-AL, if they actually even bother to poll the D-leaning races at all.

[ Parent ]
FL-25
I mostly want to see FL-25 numbers. Ironic how they release polls for Larry Kissell, Jim Himes or Gerry Connolly last week.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Yeah,
I wouldn't be surprised if they're withholding D-friendly results.
[ Parent ]
Himes
Was not polled by the Hill yet, that was a local CT pollster. the Hill only polled freshman last week. This week is open seats or sophomores, IIRC.  
[ Parent ]
I think Cool Arrow meant to say
"ironic how they DIDN'T release polls..."

PS. Himes is a freshman.

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
I was thinking of Larsen.  
[ Parent ]
Also, Mark Penn's company is doing the polling.
His horrid polling is one of the reasons Hillary's campaign did so poorly. I can't say I am going to take those numbers too seriously.
[ Parent ]
Link I posted below
[ Parent ]
Re: Congressional Preferences
Not really a generic ballot question, but WA voters, according to this poll, prefer a Democrat Congress by 46 to 37.

From page 4:

46% plurality of these voters preferred that Democrats keep control of Congress, including 31% who said
it is "important" that Democrats keep control. Some 24% said it was "important" for Republicans to take control of at least one house, and another 13% thought it would be "better" if Republicans controlled at least one house.

[ Parent ]
GA-Gov, Is this right?
From the summary section of the analysis:
Keep in mind that this survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, which means that Deal could be leading by as little as 4 points or by as much as 8 points.
 
Deal
It's dead wrong and I also realized it right when I read it, Deal may be tied or he may be up by 16 pts.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
yeah, wonderful so-called "expert" analysis by the InsiderAdvantage CEO
Makes you wonder...
[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Schwarzenegger endorses Crist
Well
Well, that will have absolutely zero effect.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Culver
CulverMentum! Chet Culver releases internal poll that he's within 8 points of Branstad......

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
you can laugh
but Iowa House and Senate Democrats would be thrilled to see Culver lose by less than 10 points. That would mean down-ticket Democrats need fewer ticket-splitters to win.
[ Parent ]
WV-Sen: Firefighters' Union runs ad supporting Manchin and dinging Raese.
It's a $32K ad buy, according to DKos and is going to air statewide.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
$32k is enough to air statewide in WV?
Gosh, would that even pay for 30s in SanFran?
[ Parent ]
This ad is a nice couterpunch
to the Republican "hick" ad. What it lacks for in production value it more than makes up in believability. (In fact, its low production value could help it break through the clutter.) I hope it gets a lot of play.
[ Parent ]
Loiw production value is a plus...
Dennis Kucinich runs lots of ads with union members talking off script on a home camcorder with poor lighting.  It gives a nice authentic feel and helps counter the "Kucinich is an elitist San Francisco liberal" attacks.
[ Parent ]
Feingold down 51-44 in Reuters/Ipsos poll
that matches
what other polls. So now, we can not blame Feingold's deficit on automated polls.
[ Parent ]
Same
Same spread as Ras - only 1 point off on each number.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Jells well with the D internals too
Those polls showed a tied race, which made me think Johnson +5, which is in the same neighborhood as Rasmussen and Ipsos.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I dunno
I dunno how a D internal--which is hell the way more expensive than certainly the Rasmussen poll--causes you to add 5 automatically!

If anything the D internal would catch Feingold's under polled demos (read: black women in Madison and Milwaukee) which Rasmussen is missing.

[ Parent ]
Are they going to get out and vote though?
Black women in Milwaukee and Madison--you can replace the names of those two cities with cities nationwide and there's your recipe for any vulnerable Democrat to win this year. AA's, women, urbanites, and young voters are all expected to show up in smaller numbers this year than in 2008, hence the enthusiasm gap. The narrower Feingold can make the gap, the better his chances.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Internal polls
That are released are probably less reliable. They are usually after message testing (Candidate A eats puppies for dinner and Candidate B saved an asteroid from striking earth and wiping out the planet)  
[ Parent ]
Iowa news
Culver's campaign released internal showing him down 47-39. Yes, that's still bad, but it's the closest he's polled against Branstad all year, and the only poll I'm aware of that had Branstad below 50.

If Culver could keep Branstad from winning in a blowout, Iowa Democrats would have a much better chance of holding the Iowa House.

In IA-02, Miller-Meeks and Loebsack are debating tonight.

In IA-01, Braley and Lange debated on Sunday.

I posted a roundup of recent IA-03 news at Bleeding Heartland. Biden came to town today to headline a fundraiser for Boswell. Zaun has some ads running, but not nearly as many as Boswell and DCCC have aired. AFL-CIO doing more direct mail against Zaun. Still haven't seen any Chamber of Commerce ads, but they supposedly are going to spend $183,000 against Boswell.

oops--forgot the Culver poll link
[ Parent ]
Ouch....Releasing An Internal Poll Showing You Down By "Only" 8 Points....
....that's about the lowest I've seen a campaign sink.  Who could have imagined in 1998 Iowans would be clamoring this badly for yet another Branstad term?
[ Parent ]
Raul Labrador


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
thank you!
I couldn't remember who it was, but Labrador released a poll where he was down around 20 or so points.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
NY-13. Finally some counter-punching.
I'm a big believer that this year the best defense is a good offense.  So I was thrilled after days of getting negative mailers from the Grimm campaign and seeing negative anti-McMahon TV ads to have this arrive in my mail.  It ties Grimm to BP and "Big Oil."  Not sure on it's effectiveness but scanned for your enjoyment.

http://img214.imageshack.us/im...
http://img821.imageshack.us/im...

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

Scott Murphy Really Looks Like a Douche By Wavering On His Support For Pelosi....
You can sort of understand Roy Herron saying that in his situation, but are the voters of Saratoga Springs, New York, really gonna reward Murphy for shanking his party leader?
NV-03: Effective new Dina Titus ad hits Heck hard.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
OH-09
Rich Iott never learned to stop digging when you're in a hole.
Well
I'm going to hand him a shovel and tell him to keep digging.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Raese says he...
would end minimum wage.  That seems counter-productive in a state like West Virginia.

http://www.salon.com/news/feat...

Male, 23, NJ-12

WV is a big union state. So it definitely isn't popular.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Hmm
what's up with rich GOP senate candidates and their fetish for ending the minimum wage?  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
no min wage
they can pay their workers whatever they want.  ...because plenty of American workers want to work for $1.00 per day like they do in china.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Has anyone seen Carly Fiorina's new ad?

...breathe...breathe...breathe.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

My impression
I find this to be a very effective and pretty cool ad.  As I college student it grabbed my attention and found it to deliver a solid message without forcing a blatant attack like so many ads, I liked it a lot.
[ Parent ]
I found it slick,
but not very memorable.
[ Parent ]
Agreed.
It's a nice hook at first but in the end the message is the same as 90% of all candidates for office.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
IL-11: Halvorson internal has her down by 4
http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/H...

Kinzinger 45, Halvorson 41

Guess it's better than being down by 18.

Internal poll has you down 4.
Probably trying to show the DCCC not to turn off funding. So I would say she's down 11-12.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
When is Cyclone back?
I miss his posts...
Preview of the Hill/Natural Gas poll
10 open seats (by my count there are at least 16).  Dems ahead only in IL-10.  Trailing by 4 in HI-1.  And apparently well behind in WI-7.  Only ones mentioned.

http://thehill.com/opinion/edi...

Remember these are done by Mark Penn's
company for the Natural Gas Alliance. Nate Silver is pretending that these are Dem polls. Couldn't be further from the truth.
[ Parent ]
Yes
And Schoen is a "Fox Democrat."
[ Parent ]
Who is Schoen?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Schoen

our pollster, Penn Schoen Berland

Last seen teaming up with Scotty on a pro-teabagger book.

http://www.washingtonexaminer....

[ Parent ]
he is
The Drizzle!!!  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
HI-1 is hard to poll
But if they have Hanabusa down 4 that tells you how to adjust their other polls accordingly.
[ Parent ]
Trailing by four in HI-01
means we are winning, with the votes that everybody misses going mainly to us.

I don't know how much we are down by in WI-07, but 5 seems like a reasonable number. I do think Duffy is going to win in a squeaker, but it will not be a blowout.

Nice to see we are ahead in IL-10. Hopefully, we won't see anymore of Bob Dold after this election.

And are these polls of open seat races?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Yes

[ Parent ]
What's your guess on which open districts
they don't report on? That could be half the story right there.

Here's mine:

DE-AL most assuredly
WA-03
NH-02

[ Parent ]
Not a shock
The narrative that they are pushing is that the Dems are going to lose big. Quite probable that will happen but it seems like they did not poll DE-AL which seems fairly likely that there would be a solid Carney advantage. Not that we will win in all of these districts that they poll (IN-08, MI-01, TN-08, WI-07 will be very tough to hold for example) but these polls are trying to set a narrative.

I really have a hard time seeing how Charles Djou will win. He won an open primary with 2 Dems splitting the vote with only 40%. That hardly inspires confidence. Maybe there will be some energy gap against the Dems but growing 10% for him is going to be very tough. Has Hansabasa had some major scandal unfold that I don't know about?

I posted above that it was ironic that they didn't poll Jim Himes or Gerry Connolly but did poll others. Both of those are freshmen whose seats were previously represented by Republicans. They fit the outline as Himes defeated an incumbent narrowly (same as Perriello) and Connolly won an open seat from a retiring long-time Republican (same as Boccieri) yet their districts weren't polled or at least released.


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
AZ-GOV: Brewer Campaign: "She's in great health, but has Goddard caught a case of the gay?"
Can't make this shit up. Apparently being gay would be as much of a detriment to Goddard's ability to complete a full term as having a concealed serious illness would be for Brewer.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
Paging Jim Kolbe (eom)

[ Parent ]
Hopefully
Hopefully stupid isn't contagious. Otherwise Arizonans may be in big trouble.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
May be?!
Arizona's been crazy for quite some time, now.
[ Parent ]
Behavior Research
A Behavior Research Center poll released Monday had Brewer holding an 11-point lead over Goddard in a telephone survey of 450 likely voters surveyed Oct. 1-10.

Behavior Research Center - perhaps aptly named, given that a majority of voters in Arizona seem to be on the brink of electing Brewer to a full term, which seems like irrational behavior to this observer, at least. Just what threshold of bad behavior and mendacity does this individual have to cross to lose the support of a majority of voters in Arizona?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
The threshold is pretty high
Remember, people knew that Fife Symington was a crook way back in 1990 when he beat Terry Goddard by a few points and didn't care. They even reelected him in 1994, after even more crooked business deals had come out. And do I even have to get into Evan Mecham, the one who canceled MLK day? Arizona's really good at being a bad joke.

Still, though, that part of the poll was "Most Likely Voters," and they don't clarify what that means. It could be a low turnout, best case scenario for Brewer model.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Good points n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
IN-Sen, IN-Sos: Ellsworth and Osili on the attack

Dan Coats and Brad Ellsworth debated last night up in Indianapolis, and the consensus seems to be that Coats did... poorly. Ellsworth tended to pound the same "Coats used to be a dirty scary lobbyist for EVIL, don't vote for him" drum that his campaign has been hitting for months, and Coats tended to attack Ellsworth's vote for healthcare reform and fumble about ineffectually for a better counter. So, good for Ellsworth, he did alright. The problem is that Ellsworth is still down in the polls by twenty points, and I don't think making Dan Coats look bad at a debate most people didn't even know was going on will make much difference. Some free media for Ellsworth can't hurt, though. They'll debate two more times this month.

I posted a few weeks back about the emerging controversy in the Secretary of State race about Republican candidate Charlie White's battle with voting registration irregularity, with the assumption that White's problems, while amusing, probably wouldn't make a whole lot of difference in the race. As it turns out, the mess has yet to go away. The Indy Star has an excellent profile of the race as it stands, to which I'll append the news that two special prosecutors have been appointed in Hamilton County to investigate the whole thing. As for Democratic candidate Vop Osili, he's aggressively going after White in this new TV ad. Sounds like any other negative ad to me, frankly, but at least Osili's on the air. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Do
you know the size of the Vop buy? Are you sure it's not an internet ad? I did not think he had the money to go on air. Goodness if Vop wins that would be something. I still have my doubts he is not exactly ethically clean himself plus no one really cares and I think the R by White's name pulls him over.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Unless his campaign is lying through their teeth
They say they're running that ad on stations in "Indianapolis, Evansville, Fort Wayne, Lafayette, South Bend and Terre Haute" through election day, so they've scraped together at least some money.

I'd still Osili's still likely to lose, but I'd say they're doing everything necessary to at least have a chance. I thought I had seen Howey Politics actually move the race to tossup, but now I think that article's behind their paywall and I can't find it.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Maybe.
Where is Vop getting his money from? Self funding? Bayh? Surely he has not raised enough to do a large buy like this. I suppose he could win, the article mentioned White is not going to do any ads. To be fair I have seen five (six if you count my own) Vop signs and only one White sign. Signs don't vote, I know. Maybe this is more competitive than I thought. Just maybe. I mean this scandal should be enough to drag White down but all of the Republicans I have talked to just dismiss it and say it's no big deal, honest mistake. It's not but the party has done a good enough job convincing people that the big bad Democrats are just making something into nothing. White is disgusting and I have heard he has done some other things (not posting as it is an un backed but some things are pretty well known) and he does not deserve to be in the office. Yet will people care about who they are voting for, for SoS? I just do not think so. They will vote for the R by his name. Maybe I'm wrong though. It is hard to base anything with literally no data whatsoever. This would be the first time in twenty years that we won SoS. I'm hoping for an upset. If only Tom McKenna would have won the primary.....  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Haley up by 9 in SC Gov.
And this story has just come back:
New Details About Alleged Nikki Haley Affair Emerge In SC-GOV http://www.charlestoncitypaper...
[ Parent ]
Wow...
I would have thought he'd keep quite after the primary in service to the party. But I guess not!
[ Parent ]
Bad for Sheheen
Those reports only helped Haley in the primary, and will probably do the same here.  
[ Parent ]
NY-22: Ed Koch to endorse George Phillips over Maurice Hinchey
http://www.dailyfreeman.com/ar...

Hinchey's my congressman, so I have lotsa interest in this one. Koch's endorsement probably doesn't move anything (though it'll shine light on an otherwise-ignored race), but I think Hinchey can't take anything for granted. This is a district with tons of progressive, grassroots, Green Party-type Democrats who've been majorly let-down by Obama's performance, and they're surely not the types who'll get excited over Andrew Cuomo. Since Hinchey is a reliable liberal vote, this may not hurt him among the Dems who'll vote, but it wouldn't surprise me if Dem turn-out is rather limp here. This is also a district where the Republicans tend to be Paladino types, and while there aren't many of them, they will GOTV. The electorate here will probably look something like 55D/30R/15I, and Hinchey probably wins 58-40 ('cuz the Green candidate will probably get 1-2%).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Koch
Koch carries no weight in Albany.  If he has any clout left.

Phillips spokesman Jazz Shaw said he believes Koch's foreign policy disagreements with Hinchey center on the congressman's decisions to not sign "several letters endorsing Israel" and to not support sanctions against Iran.

Koch, who is Jewish and is outspoken on issues of interest to the Israel and the Jewish community, endorsed President George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry in 2004, at the time saying on Bloomberg Radio that, despite disagreeing with Bush on all domestic policy matters, he believes "of all U.S. presidents, Bush 43 has been the most supportive and protective of the security of the state of Israel."

If you don't genuflect before AIPAC, Koch won't support you.

[ Parent ]
MI-Gov
A new Michigan gubernatorial poll shows Democrat Virg Bernero finally beginning to close the gap between him and his opponent Republican businessman Rick Snyder:

Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White and Associates

Rick Snyder: 50%
Virg Bernero 37%

Margin of Error: 2%
Size: 2,282 voters

What's interesting about this is that it was taken before the candidates' first and only debate in which Bernero will surely get a boost.  This could very well end up being competitive at the very end.


Sample Size
That is a giant sample size.  More than twice the usual number for national figures, is it not?
[ Parent ]
Sample Size
I noticed, too, that the sample size seems to be overkill.
[ Parent ]
Baydoun Consulting (D) / Foster McCollum White & Associates (D)
is a Democratic polling outfit according to my mad Google skills.
[ Parent ]
OK
Sure, probably worth noting, but it shows what everyone else already knows: Rick is topped out at 50% (has been since at least August) and that there is still a large amount of undecided Democrats who are naturally beginning to come home because they are just now starting to pay attention.  The poll is finally starting to at least reflect the voter registration/affiliation numbers here in Michigan.  Anyone who has believed that Snyder has been up 20% over this time have been fooling themselves.
[ Parent ]
Word is Charlie Crist will unveil a big endorsement tomorrow
Per The St. Petersburg Times, he's holding a press conference to announce it.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
I wonder if it
Is just making the Ahnold endorsement official (no, an endorsement via Twitter is NOT official, unless you are Sarah Palin)  
[ Parent ]
Highly unlikely. Maybe fmr. Gov. Buddy MacKay? Fmr. Gov. Bob Martinez?
Wait...what if JEFF GREENE endorses Crist? Yes, Greene is a crappy endorsement, but it'd still hit Meek where it hurts. Could be Ileana Ros-Lehtinen too. Or, maybe Katherine Harris resurrects from the dead to piss off the Tea Party?!

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
How about HW Bush?
He has thrown his weight this cycle a bit. Jeb might not like him but having a Bush could help him. Just an idea. Or his 06 opponent Jim Davis. If I had to bet I would say Bob Graham, that seems like a good get.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Bob Graham's already behind Meek
HW Bush and Cheney backed KBH over Rick Perry, but I just can't imagine either bucking their party's nominee. Maybe they would've done so in a Crist/Rubio primary, but not here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Oh, wait....duh. It's probably Chris Christie.


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Christie?
Wow, I wonder why he would do that? He's been the RNC's golden boy this cycle, so I have a hard time seeing him turn his back on the Republican nominee, especially since Crist is probably going to lose.

My first thought was either Bob Graham or Bill Nelson.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not
to be rude but is this a joke or not? That would be beyond stupid. Crist's biggest group of supporters is teacher unions. Isn't education one of the few things he is honestly liberal on? Good Gosh if this happened it would seriously hurt him.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I think this is a joke
If not...
[ Parent ]
Not
It's not going to be Ros-Lehtinen, I can promise you that.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Only two would matter right now...
Obama or Jeb Bush and neither are happening.  
[ Parent ]
Anyone know of a live stream for tonight's CA-Gov debate?


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
NBC-4 Live
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/n...

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Actually, a believable SurveyUSA poll on VA-5
Robert Hurt (R) - 52%
Tom Perriello (D) - 41%
Jeffrey Clark (i) - 4%

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

More believable
An 11 point Hurt lead is much more likely then a 23% lead. I still don't see how Jeff Clark gets more then 2% of the vote and looking at the cross tabs they have Perriello at a negative of 15% with voters 18-34 and 12% with voters 65 and over. Seems a little strange especially with the University of Virginia and related young professionals in the area. I do believe Hurt is leading though but by about 5-7%.

Crosstabs: http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Repulican Doners love them some crazy
U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann's campaign has raised about $5.4 million since July, campaign spokesman Sergio Gor said.

That's more than any Minnesota congressional candidate has raised in an entire election -- Bachmann took in 3.4 million in 2008. The $5 million boost brings Bachmann's fundraising total this cycle to just about $10 million.

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

MN-06: Bachmann raises $5.4 million in 3rd qt
http://www.startribune.com/pol...
The earlier reports of her raising $3.4 million in the quarter were wrong, that is how much CoH she has.  
Hey
Hey, GOPVOTER, did you get my emails?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Probably
Haven't checked today.  
[ Parent ]
Makes you wonder...
... how much she could raise if she takes on Al Franken in 2014. Every wingnut in the country would be sending her some gold coins.

FWIW I would rather Republicans give their money to Bachmann than to someone who actually needs it.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Bachmann
Is probably giving a lot to the NRCC and candidates. Bachmann vs Franken would be one funny race! They'd probably both raise over 30 million.  
[ Parent ]
Bachmann is up huge on TV, Radio
I have seen, heard more ads for Bachmann than for rest of the candidates running for any office in Minnesota combined. There may be some left for NRCC but she has to be burning through a lot of it.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
if that happened,
is the rest of MN (outside of her CD) nuts enough to elect her to the Senate over Al?

Could that be a reason not to re-district her out next year, but rather leave her a nice safe CD and she'd be content there.

[ Parent ]
Maybe...
... she would have a small chance against Al (5%?) just because Franken is as polarizing as she is.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
OK. 5% is slim
And it seems that Al has in general been trying to lay fairly low the past year and a half since he finally got sworn in.
Probably trying to un-polarize himself.  
[ Parent ]
Absolutely not. Her district is way outside the
norm for the rest of the state. She'd get killed in the twin cities, inner-ring suburbs, Duluth, and the Iron Range. It would be similar to the Klobuchar-Kennedy Senate race, except it would likely be a bigger blowout since Kennedy isn't a complete moron. She'd get destroyed during the debate. Al is wicked smart.
[ Parent ]
Not a chance
The Democratic legislature along with Mark Dayton should he win are going to make her target #1 for redistricting. There is no doubt about it. She is like Alan Grayson, very polarizing only Grayson doesn't have a safe district like she does.

If she is redistricted out and takes on Franken it would become the top showdown of 2014 without a doubt. He has hardly been polarizing as a Senator and really hasn't been an attention hog so I have to think that some of his polarization is wearing off. I think Coleman may be more itching for a rematch too.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Tim Pawlenty will be without a job in 2014 to
I think there will be a long line of Republicans who would like to take on Franken. Hopefully Bachmann does run because she would be the only one Al would be a solid faverite against.

BTW I expect all the big name republicans to skip the 2012 senate race. Why run against the most popular politician in the state when you can run against a guy who only got 41% of the vote in a Democratic wave year 2 years later?

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Erik Paulsen
Would probably be the Republicans top recruit. He has a moderate image, comes from a swingy district, and can raise $$$. Kline will be too old by then.  
[ Parent ]
Paulsen would be the Reps best bet....
... but could he beat Bachmann in an endorsing convention and/or primary? The Republican base in Minnesota is very very conservative.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
TPaw
Is he really that popular in MN? No doubt that he would be a very tough opponent against Franken but didn't he only narrowly win in 2006 in part because his opponent called a report a "whore" or something like that? He still did win in a strongly democratic year in a democratic leaning state so I do grant him that but in a neutral year would he be a strong favorite against Franken or has he tied himself too much (or likely will do soon) to the GOP establishment?  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Depends how far right he goes in his...
... presidential run. TPAW was always pretty good at appearing to a moderate without really being one. His popularity has taken a hit as he has moved right as he prepares to run for president.

4 years is an eternity in politics but right now I would put Franken at best at 50/50 to be re-elected unless he catches a break and faces a real wingnut like Bachmann.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I love the guy, but Franken, like some of the Tea Party types running (and likely to prevail) in 2010, is someone I'd label an "accidental senator" - running at the right time against the right (flawed) opponent. Pawlenty isn't incredibly popular in Minnesota, but he can count on one thing - Franken will never make inroads among Republicans. In an average midterm election (though it's impossible to accurately project 4 years out), MN should have a voting electorate around 40D/37R/23I, meaning, especially with a polarizing candidate like Franken, it all comes down to Indies. If Franken again won Indies by 5, he's probably (again) eek out victory, and, if not (which I suspect is definitely the case vs. Pawlenty), he'd fall short.

The thing is, I could definitely see Michele Bachmann eying the '14 Franken race as her path to move-on-up. And, she could probably win in a primary - if I'm not mistaken, Minnesota GOP-ers tend to be the grassroots Tea Party types.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
How's Franken's constituent service?
My feeling about him is that he really cares about people, and although he is an unabashed liberal, he may be able to win some independent voters with good constituent service. He can also run on any bills he helps pass that help people, such as the bill requiring that military contractors requiring arbitration for rape victims never do any business with the government.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
this is good news for Len Britton
everybody, John Mccain is coming to burlington to campaign for Republican senate candidate Len Britton.

http://blogs.burlingtonfreepre...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Why?

[ Parent ]
Maybe
he wants to go to the Ben and Jerry's ice cream factory and this is a good excuse. Everyone likes Ben and Jerry's.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Then
Couldn't he just campaign for Dubie?  
[ Parent ]
Well I was kidding but in all seriousness
maybe Dubie doesn't want him. To be honest I don't know why Mac is doing this.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Incredibly self-centered comment from Barney Frank's opponent
Him going on Hannity is apparently more important than Chilean miners being rescued:
Let's hope this Chilean mine story does not bump Sean Bielat off Sean Hannity's show...not looking good right now.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/...
And just in case he deletes it, here's a screen shot:
http://i278.photobucket.com/al...
Weird Al
Makes me think of a song by Weird Al Yankovic:

I was watching my TV one night when they broke in with a special report
About some devistating earthquake in Peru
There were thirty thousand crushed to death, even more were buried alive
On the Richter scale it measured 8.2

And I said, "God, please answer me one question?"
"Why'd they have to interrupt 'The Simpsons' just for this?"
What a drag, 'cause I was taping it and everything
And now I'll have to wait for the rerun to see the part of the show I missed

Why does this always happen?
Why does this always happen to me?
Why does this always happen?
(Why) Why does this always happen to me?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Kudos to you two for your decency
And don't misinterpret that as faint praise. The best thing that can be said about anyone is that they are a mensch. You two are menschn.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen. Is this a tea leaf the GOP might bail on Joe Miller?
McCain cancels Anchorage trip to support Miller. http://bit.ly/9nkXBd "Scheduling conflict". No time in schedule for whack job? #AKSen
http://twitter.com/Mudflats/st...

considering:
1. a second poll out this morning shows Miller & Murkowski statistically tied. Pretty much indicating that amazingly she actually is a viable candidate. http://www.politico.com/news/s...
2. she's stated she'll remain a Republican if she wins (and her voting record has been mostly GOP party line)
3. another possible Miller scandal emerging: a 2008 ethics investigation http://www.alaskadispatch.com/...
4. not to mention what has been coming out recently: late disclosures, terrible personal finances, the hypocrisy of he and his wife accepting various forms of government help all his life, but railing against it now http://www.rollingstone.com/po... etc etc etc

Thoughts on the final CA-Gov debate...
Yet again, I found Whitman capable and competent, but unexciting as can be and not specific-enough. Brown offered more in the description department, and he's more fun and casual to watch, but I still have my doubts Brown can bring a fresh perspective to California. This was a VERY pro-Brown audience (no surprise, given the venue), though Whitman earned her fair share of applause.

Where things got testy was when Tom Brokaw brought up the "whore" controversy. Brokaw asked Brown how he could condone the use of a word, "which to women is as offensive as the n-word is to African-Americans." Brown said he didn't think Brokaw made a fair comparison, and Whitman practically jumped for joy, but the subsequent back-and-forth was so jumbled and all-over-the-place, I'm not sure she really benefited at all. If she gets desperate-enough, she'll probably run Brown's comment in a TV ad.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I should have gone
 To that debate but it cost too much and I could not find tickets. It is only a few miles from my school. Anyway, I have too much homework to go there and I was not even able to watch it. I did drive near the debate site though and I saw a large number of people with Brown signs and not many Whitman signs. Again, I would have been one of the people with the Brown signs if I had more time.

Looking at your perspective on the debate though, the "whore" comment does seem harmful to Brown but he still was not the person who said it. Also, Whitman could run the "not fair comparison" in an ad but if it were jumbled like you said, it would not work. A long ad with jumbled information may be difficult for people to understand, even if it is edited.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Completely OT
The 2nd Chilean miner just made it out, and the rescue continues!
BREAKING NEWS: Martha Coakley actually campaigning!!
http://www.wbur.org/2010/10/12...
I know most of us don't expect to see headlines saying "Coakley Campaigns" but it is real.
OMG --
I'm gonna get a screen-grab just in case.
[ Parent ]
Holy-shit
and only nine months after the election
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Afternoon Edition) | 168 comments

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