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SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 8:07 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: Joe Miller is taking a vow of omertà, insisting that he simply won't answer any more questions about his personal background. He's also taking a page right out of the Sarah Palin playbook, whining that he's been the victim of "journalist impropriety," and making up stories about reporters gaining access to his "confidential file," in "violation of the law." I despairingly think that Miller won't pay the price for this that he ought to - look at Rick Perry, who refuses to meet with newspaper editorial boards, as an example.
  • Also of note: Miller is trying to unring that Seventeenther bell a bit - but not really. His stance now is that a constitutional amendment to eliminate the direct election of senators is not "practical," but sure sounds like he'd love to do it if he could. What a weirdo.

  • NV-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog will be in Nevada today to campaign with Harry Reid.
  • WV-Sen: Clinton alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton was in Morgantown yesterday, campaigning for Joe Manchin. He made a point of saying that the "hick-y" ad "burns me up."
  • KS-Gov: This creeptastic story is finally getting some play in the Kansas gubernatorial race. Back around 2002 or so, Sam Brownback was roommates in Washington, DC with a radical cleric named Lou Engle. You might remember Engle as the Talibangelist who led a "prayer" rally in Uganda right when the country was debating passage of a bill which would have implemented the death penalty for homosexuals. Though he later tried to distance himself from the measure, at the time, Engle "praised the country's 'courage' and 'righteousness' in promoting the bill. In the past, Engle has also donated to Brownback's campaigns, and Brownback has done events with him as recently as last year. Seemingly caught off-guard by all this, the Brownback campaign had no statement in response.
  • NY-Gov: When you've lost Rudy Giuliani... His Dingusness attacked fellow Republican Carl Paladino over his anti-gay remarks, calling them "highly offensive" and saying Paladino should apologize. Not really sure what Rudy's angle is here, though.
  • TN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Haslam poured in another $2.8 million of his own money in the third quarter, for $4.3 mil total. He's also raised a pretty amazing $12.5 million from outside donors, all told; combined, this apparently makes for a new Tennessee record. (Recall that Haslam had a very competitive GOP primary.) Dem Mike McWherter hasn't released 3Q nums yet, but he's raised just a fraction of what Haslam has.
  • FL-22: Barack Obama did a fundraiser last night at the home of former NBA great Alonzo Mourning (which we mentioned to you back in SSP Amazing Digest #88). The event raised a million bucks, split between the Ron Klein campaign and the DNC. In attendance were Miami Heat players Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade (but not LeBron James), as well as Magic Johnson.
  • ME-02: Looks like Jason Levesque is going to have to beg his mom for rides to campaign rallies: the Republican just got his license suspended, after three speeding convictions in the past year. Lifetime, he has 18 driving-related convictions (including nine for speeding), and his licenses has been suspended three times.
  • NV-03: Joe Heck has a serious problem wrapped around his neck like a twenty-pound goiter. It's called Sharron Angle, and he just doesn't know what do with it. When asked directly by a voter whether he planned to vote for his own party's senate nominee, Heck responded: "I'm waiting to see all of the evidence before I make my choice."
  • NY-01: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is coming to NYC to do a fundraiser for Tim Bishop on Oct. 26th. Seems awfully late in the game to be raising scratch, but I suppose a Biden event is such a sure thing that Bishop can max out the campaign credit cards against the expected take.
  • OH-09: As he watches his candidacy circle the drain, Rich Iott lashed out at the top-ranking Jewish Republican in the Milky Way, Eric Cantor, who had repudiated him a day earlier:
  • "I think that Representative Cantor did what so many career politicians do. He reacted before he had all the facts. He didn't know the whole story. He didn't understand what historical reenacting is all about, or the education side of it. And he just made a decision without all the facts. My opponent here is cut out of the same cloth. Those are the people who passed the health care bill before they knew what was in it. The same folks who passed the stimulus bill...."

    Because comparing the minority whip to Democrats is a good idea for a Republican candidate with a future, right? Anyhow, for those of you who perhaps wanted to hold out hope that Iott was just some weird LARPer (but I repeat myself), please review this paragraph taken from the website of his fellow Nazi re-enactors:

    Nazi Germany had no problem in recruiting the multitudes of volunteers willing to lay down their lives to ensure a "New and Free Europe", free of the threat of Communism. National Socialism was seen by many in Holland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and other eastern European and Balkan countries as the protector of personal freedom and their very way of life, despite the true underlying totalitarian (and quite twisted, in most cases) nature of the movement. Regardless, thousands upon thousands of valiant men died defending their respective countries in the name of a better tomorrow. We salute these idealists; no matter how unsavory the Nazi government was, the front-line soldiers of the Waffen-SS (in particular the foreign volunteers) gave their lives for their loved ones and a basic desire to be free.

  • OR-04: There's no direct quote here, but the Douglas County News-Review reports that Rep. Peter DeFazio "says he favors replacing Pelosi as speaker if Democrats retain their majority." DeFazio has long had an antagonistic relationship with Pelosi, most recently coming to a head with his refusal to vote for the stimulus, allegedly from the left.
  • OR-05: These Republicans have no respect for Godwin's Law, do they? Speaking of the healthcare reform bill, Scott Bruun said:
  • "From a social perspective, it's right up there, I would argue - probably the fugitive slave law was worse. But still, the healthcare bill was pretty darn bad."

    The Fugitive Slave Act, which "required any runaway slaves who had escaped their bondage and were living free in the Northern states be returned to their owners" - and was one of the causes of the Civil War. Right on!

  • PA-03, PA-12: Biden alert (retroactive)! The VPOTUS did a fundraiser in Pittsburgh with both Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper and Mark Critz in attendance. The Hill makes a big deal out of the fact that this event didn't take place in Critz's district - but I'm just going to guess that there are a lot more wealthy Dems in the P'burgh area than in the 12th CD.
  • PA-06: Can an internal ever be too good? Well, you tell me if you believe this Susquehanna survey that Jim Gerlach is touting, which has him up by a massive 61-31 spread. Still, now would be a good time for Manan Trivedi or the DCCC to show us something different.
  • PA-11: If Paul Kanjorski somehow, improbably, survives once more, he will owe his fortune yet again to the realtors, who have already spent three-quarters of a million on ads on his behalf, after spending a million bucks last time.
  • Polltopia: Time to help PPP pick their next state to poll.
  • SSP TV:

    • FL-Gov: In a move we've seen a few times this cycle, Alex Sink is trying out the long-form political ad, this time with a 2-minute spot detailing Rick Scott's Medicare fraud and his attempts to hide from it
    • WA-08: In her third ad, Suzan DelBene hits Reichert on raising taxes & shipping jobs overseas

    Independent Expenditures:

    • AFSCME: Throws down $750K against Republican roofer Reid Ribble (WI-08) and $628K against GOPer Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08)
    • NRA: Almost $3 million in senate buys (here & here)
    • NRCC: Huge $8.25 million buy
    • Realtors: CA-18 (for Dennis Cardoza); IL-14 & PA-11 (for Bill Foster & Paul Kanjorski)
    • TX-23: A group called "The American Worker, Inc." is running some $200K worth of ads against Republican Quico Canseco
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Morning Edition)
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    Reading between the lines
    At the PPP blog I'm wondering if they found better numbers for Manchin over the weekend.

    "At the same time I think Democrats will hold onto the Senate and that it may be by a larger margin than people are expecting, with the party perhaps holding onto its seats in places like Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia where the party lucked out because the GOP nominated weak candidates."


    Reading between the lines...
    I have a feeling they'll show Reid slightly ahead today, and perhaps Manchin slightly ahead when they release WV.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Did you see that Angle raised $14mm this quarter?
    I am ready to give up on this midterm, if that nutbar can raise $14mm.

    [ Parent ]
    Great Flip
    How on earth does a senate candidate raise that sort of money?  I can't believe she's even working the phones - did that come in online?  Perhaps she's smarter than she looks with her strategy of using TV appearances to raise money.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Read my comment below.
    She's doing direct mail. And while he's raked in a BIG haul, it's also costing her quite a bit. Perhaps something like this can work when Sarah Palin runs for President, but for a Senate candidate all that money spent on direct mail means money that can NOT be spent on field operations or TV ads.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Im estimating
    About 6 million online. In August and July, she had raised slightly over 4 million online. In September, she raised 1.8 million online. She ahs already raised over a million this month, with about 850k online plus some big DC fundraisers.  

    [ Parent ]
    Nevada is the Minnesota of this cycle
    A lot of money is going into both sides because of the high stakes nature of the race. I don't consider it to be much of a reflection of Angle

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    She's tapping into national GOP networks...
    With her direct mail fundraising. So it's VERY expensive, and she needs to raise a whole LOT of money to sustain something like that.

    Because most in-state GOP donors are either giving to Reid or staying on the sidelines, she's having to mail to California, Texas, New York, and elsewhere to raise money.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Even with fundraising expenses,
    $14mm is a HUGE haul. Absolutely amazing.

    However, there's only so much you can do with all that money in 3 weeks. And Harry's got a sizable warchest, too.


    [ Parent ]
    Actually, even less Angle can do...
    When most of her money gets spent on raising money.

    Even if Reid's Q3 fundraising wasn't as much on paper, he's probably getting more bang for his buck in terms of TV ads and field operations.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    What percentage goes to cost?
    10% or 1.4M to direct mail or is it more than that?  

    [ Parent ]
    WAY more
    On my blackberry so I can't look it up but a woman ran in GA-13 I think it was (whichever is the southern black ATL district) and she did this direct-mail fundraising tactic and was forking over at least 50% of what she raised.  I'd almost want to say 75% even.  Angle could be working through a different company and I'm not sure if they would charge based on percentage or a lump sum as the Georgia woman was only raising a million or so a quarter.  And it was probably much harder for some no name to do this versus Angle.

    [ Parent ]
    I want to say that 30% is standard
    but don't have a source. Nevertheless, I've heard of the much higher percentages cited by user Andrew.

    It all depends on how much effort is put into each contact, etc.  


    [ Parent ]
    And it shouldnt take much effort at all unfortunately


    [ Parent ]
    Critz's district is also shaped like a pair of copulating snakes
    It's not exactly easy to know if you're in the district or not, unless they were to hold the fundraiser in Johnstown.

    Maybe that DSCC poll was on to something


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Will the massive GOTV be able to save Russ?
    I think it would need to be within 4-5 for me to think it's a long shot possibility.  

    I don't believe Johnson is over 50% - that has to be Ras pushing leaners/undecideds.    


    [ Parent ]
    DeFazio
    I think that DeFazio is saying it because, I think that WSJ had a report that DeFazio is latest D in trouble (he didn't have a GOP opponent last time, so he got 82%), can anyone link to WSJ article mentioning DeFazio?

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

    DeFazio
    OR-4 is only D+2, surprises and shocks can happen there, DeFazio might be there for too long.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

    [ Parent ]
    the WSJ is bullshit
    I don't trust anything from them and to me it just sounds like Politico concern trolling.

    [ Parent ]
    DeFazio
    In WSJ report, it's not bs reporting, it's quoting DeFazio word for word, saying that he's in the fight for his political life, and that his GOP opponent has signs covered thickly across much of the district.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

    [ Parent ]
    If that's true
    Then how come we haven't seen ANY of the pundits pick up on it.  They haven't exactly been shy to move seats in the R direction.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    guess ill have to read the article then :)
    But in general, the WSJ is bullshit.  Last week a Republican friend was hyper-ventilating about an article there talking about 3M no longer allowing their retirees to buy into the company health care plan, which sounds bad so the WSJ made it bad.  Had to show him the same story from a local paper that contained the quote from the spokeswoman of 3M saying that because of healthcare reform, it'd be cheaper for us and it would also be cheaper to let retirees shop around instead.  Total win-win unless you read WSJ propaganda.

    [ Parent ]
    oh and i dont recognize your name
    So welcome!

    [ Parent ]
    Mind the gap...
    .. between the editorial content and the reporting at WSJ. The editorial content tends towards the doctrinally conservative batshit insane. But the straight news reporters often do a very good job. There's not a lot of love lost between the two groups working at WSJ, and in that sense the paper is a bit of a sui generis case.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

    [ Parent ]
    nope, it was a regular ole article in the paper
    I don't mind the editorial portion of the paper as it's what I'd expect.  And once Peggy Noona absolutely trashed Palin and it is worth a read if you can find it.

    She may have been where I got the quote of Palin being such a terrifying person because she is so stupid she has no idea how stupid she really is.  This gets me wanting to read it again for a nice pick-me-up.


    [ Parent ]
    Was in southern OR-04 late last month
    We spent time in an area that should be even (Medford and environs -- Harry and David [pear] country)

    We saw the standard compliment of Robinson signs with Dudley's along the highway, but it seemed pretty even with DeFazio's to me. Plenty of Kitzhaber signs too.  


    [ Parent ]
    That's odd, since Medford's in OR-02
    All of Jackson County is, and so is Grants Pass.

    [ Parent ]
    D'oh! Should have known that, nm.


    [ Parent ]
    DioGuardi
    NYDN has a not-so-pretty story on DioGuardi, front headline

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

    If necessary, that would make for an affective Gillibrand as
    Not that this probably matters anymore, given Paladino's downfall has dragged DioGuardi to a 15%+ deficit too.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    might i just add
    Its about fucking time someone goes down for saying insanely homophobic things!  I just want to scream sometimes when I read the things politicians can get away with saying about the LGBT community.

    [ Parent ]
    I didn't have such an easy time finding the story on their website
    So I'm providing a link for everyone. If he had ever had a chance (which he didn't), this would sink him completely.

    Welcome, Moshe! Do you live in the city? I have been living in the East Village (in Jerry Nadler's district) and am now living with my elderly father in Charlie Rangel's district (I plan to vote against him but know that he'll win, anyway).

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Tom Ganley pulling ads from broadcast tv
    Per WEWS-TV in Cleveland, Ganley is making the move amid allegations of sexual misconduct.  A lawsuit with regard to that was filed last week.  

    This confirms what I thought all along, that Ganley has been trailing Sutton all along and the only reason that the race looked like a tossup at all were those sketchy AFF and WAA polls showing Sutton only up 3.  His personal baggage is too great to win this seat now unless the wave is about 75-80 seats worth.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    Fox/Rassy
    Fox/Rassy polls: Blumenthal +6, Malloy +4, Angle +2, Rossi +1, Coons +16, Portman +17, Kasich +5.

    22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

    is Chris Coons the luckiest politico this season?
    Got handed the Dem nomination by Beau Biden and then got O'Donnell instead of Castle.  That's the funny thing about politics, sometimes it takes years of planning like Franken did and sometimes a Senate seat just falls in your lap.

    Anyone else luckier?


    [ Parent ]
    I wouldn't say he's luckier
    But John Hickenlooper's had a surprisingly easy ride so far.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    I would say Reid and Boxer over here...
    Except that:

    1. They STILL have tough races.

    2. They're having to work quite hard for their wins.

    3. The GOP just supremely f*cked up with their candidates (iCarly in Cali, and Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron here).

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Carly
    I don't know that Boxer really has been lucky. While she was clearly vulnerable she also has the benefit of being in a blue state with a very expensive market to penetrate. Carly while she has a ton of baggage was about the best candidate that the GOP could have received to run against her given that Carly also has some personal wealth to bring to the table. Arguably Tom Campbell would have had a better shot then Carly but Campbell would have needed major assistance in fundraising that would have drained a ton of resources everywhere. CA is a black hole for money given how expensive it is to advertise. I know that the NRSC has spent in CA too but I wouldn't say that Carly was clearly more flawed then Campbell was (as the case with Angle over Tarkanian and OD over Castle).

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    this
    Campbell is a better fit for the state politically (i.e., moderate on social and resource issues) but where was the money going to come from?

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    People seem to forget just how dirt-broke Tom Campbell was. His campaign went DARK in the final two weeks of the primary - zero TV ads - because he couldn't muster the finances. On top of that, conservative Republicans have always been weary of Campbell and probably wouldn't have GOTV for him. At least Fiorina is respected among that crowd, and she has competent pull with Indies and some moderates. I figure she's probably down only 3 right now.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Reid
    I think that I would still stick with Harry Reid right now. He looked DOA and was then handed Angle. While there is a reasonable chance that he can lose I think he is in position for a very narrow win. Considering a few months ago he was losing by double digits to basically anyone and once people found out about Angle he moved into a jump ball situation speaks of how lucky he has been that she was nominated as his opponent. If he ends up losing I'd agree with Coons.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, but Reid also got unlucky in the cycle he had to run in
    If he had run in 2006 or 2008, he'd be in much better  shape regardless of who his opponent was.

    I agree that Coons and Hickenlooper (in that order) are the two luckiest candidates of the cycle. My third place(beating out Ried) goes to Mark Kirk. He's running in the right cycle, and thus staying competitive despite his flaws, and he lucked out that his opponent is equally flawed and that his primary was early enough before the TPE really got going and he didn't suffer the same fate as Lisa Murkowski or Mike Castle.

    Of course, neither Kirk or Reid has won yet, but I make both of them (slight) favorites to win.  


    [ Parent ]
    Reid wasn't handed Angle
    He handed himself Angle by nuking Lowden in the primary--don't forget that he was running ads against her for months to either soften her up or hand himself a weaker opponent.  It's rare that you have the money to play that deep of a game, but even candidates who could rarely do.  Huge credit to Reid's people for recognizing that they needed to get unconventional, and executing it superbly.

    If the democratic party isn't launching a secret program to have Reid's team cloned, or at least have them train as many other dem operatives as possible, they should be.

    From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.


    [ Parent ]
    Right...
    I think attributing it to luck understates the canny campaign Reid's team has been running - from the get-go.

    [ Parent ]
    Reid
    All good and valid points but still I don't think that Reid ever imagined that Angle would have been propped up by the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth to the extent that she was. He probably was tepidly aware of all of the controversial statements that were out there that she made but I still have to very much attribute a lot of luck to him. Also if you look back he knew that Rep. Porter was likely to challenge him and definitely helped prop up Titus enough that she would render him damaged goods. Say what you want about Reid but the guy is a campaigner that I think many in the GOP underestimated. On an unrelated note should Reid survive, the Democratic leadership needs to get their heads out of their rears and not make the Senate Leader from a swing state. Durbin/Schumer fit this description should Reid lose. Let's hope that when Reid steps down someone in a comparable state of IL/NY succeeds Reid.

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    I think Coons looks like a fricking genius
    Let's not forget he's in this position because he agreed to run for what looked like a hopeless seat when stronger candidates (Beau Biden, Carney) chose to sit it out rather than take one for the party.  Coons got the gift of O'Donnell only because he put his party over what was best for him, when no one else would.  I'm nothing but happy for him.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    Not terrible results considering the source


    [ Parent ]
    Triage: OH, PA House seats
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39...

    Representatives Steve Driehaus  of Ohio, Suzanne M. Kosmas of Florida and Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania were among the Democrats who learned that they would no longer receive the same infusion of television advertising that party leaders had promised. Party strategists conceded that these races and several others were slipping out of reach.

    Seems inconsistent with Biden's fundraiser, unless it's supposed to be a substitute in PA-03.


    I don't think any of these seats
    is much of a surprise.  Kosmas has been trailing for months, as have Driehaus and Dahlkemper.  

    Word is that the DCCC is pulling out of Mary Kilroy's district as well, and are putting those resources into John Boccieri and Zack Space's districts.  I think that's a huge mistake personally, especially in the latter case where Space is trying to run from the national democrats (the district is R+7 compared to Kilroy's D+1).  There's been so much spending and so much muck thrown in OH-16 that the DCCC probably needs to be there, though.

    Space wouldn't be in so much trouble if the SEIU wasn't trying to actively defeat him with their "Skip a Space" campaign over his no-vote on HCR.  Screw the SEIU.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    Jo Kilroy
    is obviously down by the same margin as Driehaus. Why do you think she has a chance to come back? You've said all along she's only a so, so campaigner, right? Is Strickland going to do really well here or something?

    In 2008, she got 46% of the vote. That was with the big Obama turnout in Columbus, and other parts of Ohio. I think she's barely breaking 40.

    I'm happy to see OH-13 starting to get better (though I do believe Sutton has been up by only 5).  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    Kilroy is down by less than Driehaus.
    Driehaus has been consistently down double digits, Kilroy by mid to high single digits.  The district is not getting the same "angry voter" numbers as other districts.  It's been fairly prosperous compared to other parts of Ohio.

    She won't win, but you're overstating the matter.  Plus there's a conservative third party candidate to steal votes from Stivers.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    The last two polls from OH-15
    Kilroy has been down 5 and 6 respectively.  One of them was a WAA poll, and the other pollster eludes me.  To say that she's down by the same amount as Driehaus is ridiculous as the latter has trailed by double digits in almost every poll taken.  

    Strickland is going to have a huge GOTV operation in the Columbus area, it is always a hotbed for activity in close statewide races.  The one thing that might be a problem is that Kasich is from neighboring OH-12, so I don't know if he's going to run stronger than generic R in greater Columbus or not.  Still, if I had to guess, any path to victory for Strickland includes a victory in OH-15 as it is about 2-4 points more blue than the rest of the state.  I'd say about 95-97% of Strickland voters are going to end up going for Kilroy in the end.  Don't forget that there is a right-leaning indy in the race as well, which will take votes from Stivers.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    Space can win
    Kilroy can't. Just because she's not the worst off in Ohio doesn't mean she's not incredibly likely to lose.

    Plus, that's a seat that could be won back with a better nominee. If the Dems lose Space's seat they'll probably never get it back. I lived there for a few years, he's the perfect candidate for that district as a Dem.


    [ Parent ]
    Ok
    Few questions.

    Why is it a huge mistake for the DCCC to spend money in Space's district, even if he's "running from the party"? They can runs ads against his opponent, so I do not see the big deal there. That's like saying the DCCC should not run ads against Roby in AL-2 because Bright is running as a Democrat should in his district, it makes no sense.

    Who cares if it's R+7 and D+1 when there's a major difference between candidates. Space is a much stronger candidate, so who cares if he's in a R+7 seat?


    [ Parent ]
    Surprised they didn't cut loose PA-03 sooner
    Some of the worst numbers of this cycle have been emanating from there.

    [ Parent ]
    Inconsistent
    Well, Biden is getting people to contribute directly to those campaigns, whereas the DCCC has limited funds that have to be distributed around the country. I see a distinction.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    PA-13
    Allison Schwartz up 57-32 in her internal.

    http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/Sc...

    Really lackluster polling memo.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Yep, no internals and no crosstabs...
    So I'm taking this with quite a bit of salt. Still, I've never really seen PA-13 as a seat at risk, so this doesn't change my view of the race either way.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Interesting
    Now here's the question: why release it?  

    [ Parent ]
    Republicans had released
    a poll showing Schwartz up only 44-42.  This was responsive.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    let's put it this way
    If Schwartz's race is within ten, we've lost 60+ seats in the House.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    at least she responded quickly. Quick, dueling internals usually indicate one side is trying to set a narrative and you stop it in their tracks.

    However, if there's no response...


    [ Parent ]
    25 versus 2
    Yup, vast majority of Republican "polls" are BS.

    [ Parent ]
    NV-03
    That's just dumb by Joe Heck. It's your senate nominee who has the majority support from Republicans and probably at least comes close to splitting independents. Nobody is going to believe that you'd vote for Harry Reid anyway, so the posturing is just going to turn off your base.

    That said, keep it up!!


    Seems to be the type of process questions no one will care about
    What Republican will go to the poll and withhold a vote for Heck remembering his comment?

    [ Parent ]
    It's not just about votes.
    It's about giving money and volunteering too. I'm a left-of-center Democrat, and there are a fair amount of Democrats I wouldn't lift a finger for because I don't think they are worth keeping. I'd probably still vote for them, because I'm not going to vote for a Republican, but it's not the same as people like Russ Feingold and Al Franken to whom I've dedicted significant hours.

    [ Parent ]
    Gerlach has always polled way ahead of his opponents.
    PA-06 has always been an "under-the-radar" type race because of that.  

    FL-Gov back to a tie
    I don't think anyone mentioned Quinnipiac's new FL-Gov poll: Alex Sink trailed by 6% two weeks ago, now it's 45-44 (for Scott).

    Innards tell the story
    Sink more ethical businessperson by 44-28 percent, 89 percent of likely voters say a candidate's record in business is either somewhat or very important to their vote choice.

    Sink 42-37 favorable, Scott 39-46 unfavorable.

    "This compares to the October 1 survey showing her with a split 39 - 39 percent favorability, compared to Scott's split 41 - 40 percent."

    Indies say 50-24 that Sink was more ethical in business than Scott.

    "Independent voters, who backed Scott 46 - 40 percent October 1, now back Sink 51 - 34 percent."

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

     


    [ Parent ]
    Manchin rebounds in PPP poll
    PPP just released its West Virginia poll, and Joe Manchin leads 48-45: http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    As you all remember, he trailed by 3% a few weeks ago.


    Excellent!
    I've been sick of all the talk on other blogs where they've essentially written him off. The downward movement for Manchin hadn't been sustained for long enough to warrant considering the race settled. And Manchin has approvals far too high to write him off, especially if he can put some distance between himself and Obama - which, for a very conservative Democrat, shouldn't be that hard.  

    [ Parent ]
    Voter Sample
    The first poll broke down as voters who voted for McCain 55-38, in this poll it is only 50-39 in favor McCain.  McCain won the state by 13 points in 2008.  I find the 55-38 spread much more believable than the one used in this sample considering how much Obama is hated in WV.

    In addition 47% of voters want him to stay on as governor and only 38% want him in the Senate.  Manchin may be shown ahead but he is still in deep trouble.  


    [ Parent ]
    Correction
    McCain support was 58-35 in the previous poll, and now its down to 50-39.  I bit odd if you ask me.

    [ Parent ]
    Are Obama voters finally getting energized?
    While I agree it's a stretch, I'm hoping for explanations other than "rogue poll".

    [ Parent ]
    Tom Jensen implies that's the case:
    In 2008 56% of the voters who came out for President in West Virginia were registered Democrats while 29% were registered Republicans. The poll we did in mid-September found that the folks planning to vote in this year's election were considerably more GOP leaning- only 51% Democrats and 37% Republicans. But Democratic interest has perked up quite a bit over the ensuing three weeks and the likely electorate is now composed of 55% Democrats and 33% Republicans, still slightly more GOP friendly than in 2008 but enough to put Manchin back into the lead.

    Perceptions of where this race stands have changed dramatically over the last three weeks and could be the reason Democratic voters are now becoming more engaged. In mid-September a Manchin victory was seen as inevitable but since then it's become clear the race is actually a toss up. That realization that Manchin actually does need their votes to win seems to have produced a greater sense of urgency with the Democratic base about getting out and voting next month.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


    [ Parent ]
    The key in the race is obviously turnout
    The voter preference is virtually identical in the two PPP polls, this sample is a very Dem-friendly while the one a few weeks back favored Republicans.  I'd have to think come a election day the electorate would fall somewhere in the middle and this will be one of the closest races on election night.  This race to me is just so intriguing because Manchin is so well liked (especially compared to Raese) but it appears a good number of people would rather keep him as governor than have him run off to Washington.  Certainly an odd race.

    [ Parent ]
    True, it might be close...
    though I'm not so sure of that in the end, based on these numbers.

    Raese's unfavorables went from 35 to 46 in three weeks! And Manchin has just started trying to define him. (He got a big assist in free media last week due to the "hicky" ad controversy.)

    Raese will not have the same flexibility to define Manchin. The voters already know him.

    If Manchin is able to raise Raese's unfavorables just a few more points, it's game over.


    [ Parent ]
    Democratic engagement
    Definitely good news for WV-01

    [ Parent ]
    Plus, Manchin well-liked, Raese not so:
    Manchin's 68% approval rating on this poll is the highest PPP has measured for any politician in the country in 2010. Majorities of Democrats (80%), independents (60%), and Republicans (50%) alike are happy with the job he's doing. John Raese on the other hand has seen his favorability numbers slide over the last three weeks to the point where now just 39% of voters see him favorably and 46% have an unfavorable opinion.


    [ Parent ]
    He pulled back into the lead at just the right time
    With exactly three weeks left, this is what he needed. Manchin has just started to hit Raese as an outsider and I think that will be the route to victory for Manchin.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    Manchin needs to look to the Conway campaign...
    Run against Raese and about West Virginia.  Paul is desperate to nationalize the Ky race and Raese is desperate to do the same in WV.  

    Will there be any debates in WV?


    [ Parent ]
    AZ-5: Internal GOP has Schwiekert up by 2
    45-43.  In response to Dem internal which had Mitchell up by 7.  Somewhat surprising considering I think this is the most vulnerable Dem seat in AZ.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...


    Arizona seats
    I also considered AZ-5 to be the most vulnerable. Some consensus has developed, however, that AZ-1 is far more vulnerable; I long didn't see AZ-1 as that endangered, but we've seen terrible numbers for Kirkpatrick to which Democrats haven't offered an answer.

    [ Parent ]
    AZ-1
    I think is quickly approaching the gone category.  Kirkpatrick had no response to Gosar's poll that had him up 7 last week.  I know that the navajo nation is having their elections this year and that helps Kirkpatrick's chances, and maybe this district isn't as bad as the R+6 PVI suggests, but I don't get a good vibe out of the silence from the Kirkpatrick campaign.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    AZ-1
    Has there been any polling of AZ-08? I have to think that Giffords is safe especially against Kelly but I haven't seen anything out of either. I would very much agree that AZ-1 is more likely to be lost then AZ-5. Mitchell is well known and respected in the district and as the mayor of Tempe before he ran for Congress. These dueling polls with the standard internal rule depicts a jump ball with Mitchell slightly favored.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Kirkpatrick has a bigtime cash advantage
    NRCC is spending huge there.  Dropped a half million so far, counting the numbers from today.  Don't think it's considered locked up by any means.  Think the silence is probably that her internals don't show her up by enough to make it worth showing her cards.

    [ Parent ]
    How?
    How is it "quickly approach the gone category"? She's got a ton of cash and you even mentioned that both the navajo nation are having elections AND the poll was an internal.

    It's a little strange to say "hey this race is gone because the incumbent's opponent released an internal showing them ahead!"


    [ Parent ]
    NN elections
    were good for a nine-point boost for George Cordova in 2002, but only a 2-point boost for Ellen Simon in 2006.  The difference was in the relationship between the Democratic candidates and the Navajos -- Cordova lived on the rez and was seen as a native son, while Simon was clearly an outsider to the district.  I would say Kirkpatrick is a lot more like Cordova than like Simon; I'd expect about a 7-8 point boost for her over what the polls are showing.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    Gosh, is that all?
    Harry Mitchell is looking like a good possibility for "surprise survivor"

    [ Parent ]
    AZ
    AZ is not as Republican-leaning as its PVI numbers indicate, because its PVI is biased by the favorite-son effect in 2008. It's basically a point or two more Republican than Colorado.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Taking these polls together
    He is up a couple points.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, seems like a weak (R) internal
    Can probably assume that Mitchell is the slight favorite, probably +3 or so.  Overall I think AZ + NM-02 + NV-03 is an area we can still pull out victories this cycle.

    [ Parent ]
    wow
    he's doing better than I thought.

    People should stop polling this race. Snyder is too popular, and you don't close a 13-point gap in 3 weeks.


    [ Parent ]
    That's good
    It's the best Bernero has done.  I'm looking forward to the next poll.  They said in the article that they'll be doing another poll this week to measure the change after Sunday's debate.  I think Bernero did well so hopefully he can cut Snyder's lead down to single digits.  

    [ Parent ]
    GA-Gov: Barnes' daughter and grandchildren in car accident
    http://www.ajc.com/news/cobb/d...

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    Prayers
    Prayers are with all involved.

    I think it should be left at that (especially as there is nothing political to discuss from this).


    [ Parent ]
    That's really sad n/t


    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Brownback
    Pity Brownback doesn't have an opponent who can take advantage of his extreme positions.  Every since he attacked IVF, I've sworn that I would donate to any credible opponent he had, but unfortunately, he's a shoe-in this year.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    He does--state Sen. Tom Holland
    Tom Holland has been landing solid punch after solid punch, it's just a long damn slog when you're a KS Democrat. Plus, Holland's fundraising has been pretty good (again, let's remember: KS Democrat).

    Unfortunately, the only public pollsters covering the race have been SUSA (which finds that young people looooove Republicans) & Rasmussen. I don't know whether Holland has enough time to make Kansans remember how wackadoo Brownback is, but he's trying like the dickens. And frankly, Brownback's campaign has been lackluster and poorly organized while KS Democrats have suddenly realized that our candidates are awesome this year and really worth supporting.

    And Brownback is not a shoe-in--let's remember it was just 2002 when Sebelius won an open seat with 53% and just four years ago when she stomped the crap out of a credible opponent with 57%.

    God bless Dana Houle.  (Holland's campaign manager & SSPer)

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    It's being reported
    that there is a Rasmussen poll out showing Giannoulias up 1 point (44-43). It's on RCP. But the odd thing is, I cannot find it anywhere, not even on the Rasmussen website.

    Does anybody know of this?

    20, WM, Democrat, NY-14 (NY-28 for college)


    Ras
    That happened yesterday with the M-Gov poll.  It means it's still behind their pay wall, but they will be going public with it, soon.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Saw some tweets about it
    It should be out soon, it's supposed to be a 10/11 poll.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    never mind
    They just released it.

    [ Parent ]
    This looks like it could be the best polling day
    we've seen in a while.

    [ Parent ]
    Which is really ironic
    Seeing as the pollster.com generic ballot just hit it's all-time worst for the cycle for Team Blue, republicans leading by 6 points at 47.5 to 41.5.  I'm starting to wonder if a lot of that movement is due to Gallup switching from an RV to a LV model and going from R+2 to R+12 the last two weeks.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    it likely is
    R+12 and R+17 are too high. Nobody believes that. Nate Silver said that if those results hold, Democrats can lose up to 85 seats or more. Neither Cook, Sabato, or Rothenberg are predicting anything close to that.

    So I wouldn't exactly take it as wrong; I would just say that Gallup is not king, regardless what people say. Every pollster claims to be the most accurate.


    [ Parent ]
    The only generic ballot polls
    that weakened for us were CBS and Rasmussen. The pollster.com trends do not account for the shift from registered to likely, so the switch in Gallup methodology is no doubt having an effect on their charts.

    FWIW, Bloomberg/Selzer just reported the generic among likelies at 42D/40R:
    http://www.swingstateproject.c...


    [ Parent ]
    That's the first generic ballot poll
    showing the democrats ahead in over a week.  This could be a great polling day after all.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Obama was just there


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen IL-Sen
    Giannoulias 44, Kirk 43

    But get this - Razzy includes the Green candidate among the choices but not the Libertarian. Typical for a pollster more concerned with narrative than accuracy.

    And still, Alexi's on top. This might even marginally understate his position.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    I might have to move it back to Tilts Dem
    Increasingly becoming clear the senate comes down to IL, NV, WA, WV.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't forget WI and KY as well.


    [ Parent ]
    I think Feingold and Conway
    Are further down than the others.

    [ Parent ]
    I. TOLD. YOU. SO!
    I see PPP has the official numbers as 47 Reid, 45 Angle. And remember, this is with a conservative (literally!) turnout model showing an Obama +2 electorate. As PPP themselves admitted yesterday, they're very much factoring in an "enthusiasm gap" and they're probably NOT factoring in the NV Democrats' GOTV operation working to "fill the gap".

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    So you did
    Jensen is truly the dangle master!  

    [ Parent ]
    And this is a VERY CONSERVATIVE model...
    I see in PPP's model, they have a closely divided electorate (41% Dems, 40% GOP, 19% Indies and others), and slightly more men than women. So really, this is more "worst case scenario" than "rosy scenario". If the NV Dems' GOTV operation really works as planned, I think my analysis AND PPP's own analysis will prove to be true, that Reid has mroe of an edge than any of the DC pundits realize.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Another piece of good news
    After other polls showing Angle leading, it's encouraging to see one with Reid in the lead.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    "Other polls"
    All Republican leaning.

    [ Parent ]
    As I've been saying...
    Many of these public polls have been out of whack. Believe me now?

    Again, they've been undercounting Reid supporters and overestimating Angle's support (especially among Indies). What likely happens here in November will shock so many of you... ;-)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Just Rasmussen doing his thing


    [ Parent ]
    Awesome!
    Note that 53% of the electorate thinks Angle's views are "extremist." Seems like her strategy in the general to hide her true beliefs, thankfully, hasn't been working.

    [ Parent ]
    Favorables
    Her - 41-53
    Him - 44-52

    Lost in the negative campaigning somewhat is the fact he has clearly improved his image a little. That is making a difference I think.


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, definite improvement for him
    on that measure.

    Notice too that only 1% are undecided. So this race is pretty much locked down at a virtual tie, perhaps with a slight Reid edge. It will all come down to mobilization and GOTV.


    [ Parent ]
    Considering there is a massive gap;..
    ...between registered voters and likely voters for Reid, any extra voters who show up will mostly be for him, so GOTV will really be getting our money's worth.

    [ Parent ]
    I think
    Reid's favorables were bad because of totally united unfavorability among republicans, plus, I think the extreme left democrats (what I call the FireDogLake/OpenLeft crowd) were down on him because he didn't ram through enough legislation and didn't "have a backbone to stand up against the GOP", or something to that effect.  But once Sharron Angle became the nominee for the GOP and started spewing her bs all over the place, that caused a lot of the FDLers to come home pretty quick.  

    Just a theory.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    If the Medicare/drugs/etc... comments haven't...


    [ Parent ]
    Oh I think those have hurt him


    [ Parent ]
    Doubt It
    Paul is simply trying to continue to nationalize the race.

    Hopefully Conway will stick to localizing.


    [ Parent ]
    Agreed.
    Those who localize their races will win.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    AK-Sen: PPP/kos has Miller 35 Murk 33 McAdams 26
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    Also of note
    Sarah has worse favorables in her home state than Barack

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    They can't be crazy enough
    To nominate her can they? Christine O'Donnell says "Yes We Can!"

    [ Parent ]
    It's interesting that in 2012
    It is extremely probable that Obama wins the home state of the Republican candidate. He'd crush Romney in Massachusetts (obviously), beat Pawlenty in Minnesota, possibly beat Gingrich in Virginia and Georgia, and this poll shows he has a shot against Palin in Alaska

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    Wow...
    No wonder Miller hasn't been embracing her 100%.

    [ Parent ]
    Thought this might happen
    "Murkowski is competitive because of the 25 percent of Democrats who plan to write her in. Indeed, 35 percent of Obama voters plan on voting for Murkowski, compared to 58 percent that stick with McAdams."

    [ Parent ]
    McAdams doing everything right, IMO
    He's creeping up slowly and waiting for an implosion. Quietly consolidating the base while Joe and Lisa go nuclear is the best strategy.

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    He isn't consolidating the base, that's the problem
    I repeat my thesis from previous weeks:  McAdams cannot afford to be seen as Murkowski's spoiler.

    Left-of-center Alaskans don't like Lisa, but they are (rightly) afraid that Joe Miller may become the bringer of an economic apocalypse... and given Democrats' Charlie Brown-ish track record in that state, enough of them will back Murkowski if they have insufficient reason to believe McAdams is viable.


    [ Parent ]
    Miller's favorables are atrocious
    If Murkowski's GOTV efforts are sterling, she can probably pull this out. For McAdams to win, he needs to hope Murkowski implodes (which seems less likely than Miller imploding, which would hand Murkowski victory). My current projection...

    Independent - 41%
    GOP - 39%
    Democrat - 20%

    Miller - 32/64/3 = 39%
    McAdams - 25/3/60 = 23%
    Murkowski - 43/33/37 = 38%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    That's the silver lining here, favorables
    Miller is at 35/58, and a godawful 28/65 with independents.  If he can't fix this (and given his stated positions, that will be quite difficult), he's going to lose barring an inefficient vote-split between McAdams and Murkowski.

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Sen: Two new Fiorina ads
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    Per MSNBC, this ad buy is "big." Personally, I think the second one is more affective than the first.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    Wrong year
    Too bad. It would be sooooo satisfying to take out that corrupt piece of shit

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    Ouch
    Look at Melancon's favorability rating: 26-48 fav-unfav. Vitter's ad campaign causing a big hit on his favorables.  

    [ Parent ]
    NRCC buys from today
    A lot of money poured into races that should be "locked up"

    AR-01, AL-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, CA-11 (small buy), CO-03 (new target), CO-04, FL-02, FL-08, FL-24, GA-08, IL-10, IL-11 (small buy), IL-14, IL-17 (new target?), IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, KY-06, MA-10, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MN-01 (new target), MO-04, MS-01, NC-07, ND-01, NH-01 (new target), NH-02 (new target), NJ-03 (tiny buy), NM-01, NM-02 (new target), NV-03, NY-20, NY-24, OH-06 (new target), OH-16, OH-18 (new target), OR-05, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-11, SC-05, SD-01, TN-08, TX-17, VA-02 (new target), VA-05, VA-09, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08, WV-01

    Tea Leaves:

    CA-11 had a small buy, maybe NRCC is giving up here
    CO-03 I think is a first time expenditure going up in that district
    CO-04 had a HUGE buy ($392k), thought this was a done deal?
    FL-24 still spending there!
    IL-11 however had a small buy, may be mostly locked up
    IL-17 first spending by NRCC in this district I think
    IN-02 maybe a bit of a drop-off in spending here
    MN-01 first NRCC spending here
    ND-01 still spending here!  another $250k
    NH-01, NH-02 first time NRCC spending here, big buy against Porter!
    NJ-03 was a middling buy, probably giving up here
    NM-02 accelerating spending here
    NV-03 gigantic buy here ($386k)
    OH-06, OH-18 first time NRCC spending here
    OR-05 accelerating spending here
    TN-08 still spending here! (another $200k)
    TX-17 still spending here as well
    VA-02 first time NRCC spending here
    VA-05 still spending here (another $155k)
    WA-03 whole lot dropped here ($300k)

    New Target districts:

    CO-03, IL-17, MN-01, NH-01, NH-02, NM-02, OH-06, OH-18, VA-02

    probably pulling out of reach for Republicans:

    CA-11, NJ-03

    no spending on MS-04 this round, FWIW.  Still no buys in NC-08, IA-03, or TX-23.


    Still spending in (R) favored districts
    based in fivethirtyeight's numbers, NRCC is still spending in:

    4/11 of the districts 90%+ likely to flip D->R
    16/16 of the districts 80-89% likely to flip D->R
    8/8 of the districts 70-79% likely to flip D->R

    have they not locked up some of their easiest districts to win?


    [ Parent ]
    RNCC told the NYT a week or so ago
    that they only had about 20 in hand.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Why no NY-23 buys
    What do you think is going on in this race?  Is NRCC staying away because Hoffman will still be on the ballot and Owens has a pile of cash?

    [ Parent ]
    I don't get it.
    Internal poll showed Doheny +14.  I think they're confident, but are they really more confident than they are in, say, TX-17, where they're spending quite a bit?

    I'd guess they'll be up in NY-23 next week.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    No
    Doheny had about a million CoH as of August 24th, only slightly less than Owens, and has a huge self funding ability.  

    [ Parent ]
    Coon 57 O'Donnell 38
    Coons, that is. Plus Carney up by 9
    53-44.

    [ Parent ]
    Here's that Feingold internal we've been hearing about
    48-48 with leaners.  45-43 Johnson without.

    http://www.russfeingold.org/me...


    Heron Won't Vote For Pelosi
    http://www.politico.com/news/s...

    Add Roy Herron to the list of those who will not vote for Pelosi. Like Bobby Bright, he also stated he would not vote for Boehner.


    Pattern
    Southern candidates who are not getting DCCC help are pledging not to vote for Pelosi.

    (1) Sangisetty (LA-03)
    (2) Carter (TN-06)
    (3) Elliott (AR-02) (agnostic)
    (4) Herron (TN-08)

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    No Dem would dare vote for a GOP speaker.
    The last person to do that (Jim Traficant) got all of his seniority and committee assignments stripped, meaning that he could only do floor votes.

    If the Dems hold a razor-thin Majority, I see them electing Steny Hoyer to be Speaker and move Pelosi to Majority Leader (or Whip, since she's effective at that sort of thing).

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    So long as Pelosi stays on as some leader, I would not be upset
    if Hoyer becomes Speaker.  He'd be like Dennis Hastert (i.e. soft-spoken and not as disliked by partisans).

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Hoyer would be a 50-50 proposition at best
    Pelosi doesn't like him, and there will be fewer blue dogs in the caucus.  Jim Clyburn or John Larson could beat him.

    [ Parent ]
    I read that John Larson
    isn't taken all that seriously among leadership.

    [ Parent ]
    Pelosi won't do that
    Speaker, minority leader or no leadership position.  

    [ Parent ]
    Right...
    I think she'd retire.

    [ Parent ]
    While I can believe that Nancy
    has given her OK to certain members saying that they won't vote for her --

    I can't believe anyone would voluntarily take a lower-level position in the leadership. But there are exceptions. Last case that comes to mind -- Robert Byrd -- who gave up his leadership position to chair Appropriations. I see Pelosi retiring first. Not like her district would be at risk in a special.

    But there would have to be a female member brought up in the leadership as compensation -- Rosa DeLauro as majority leader (or minority whip) perhaps. Yes, that would PO the CBC.


    [ Parent ]
    Good points...
    The Senate is a different animal, though. There's enough prestige and power just being a senator that your position in leadership isn't really make-or-break.

    But in the House, going from #1 to a backbencher is just very unusual, at least from my amateur understanding of recent history.


    [ Parent ]
    Does Hastert count?
    He stayed on almost a full year as a back-bencher before resigning from his seat. Surprised me, I assumed he would've resigned right at the start of that term.

    [ Parent ]
    PS.
    And I love Pelosi, think she's been one of the most effective speakers in a very long time. So I wouldn't celebrate her stepping aside at all. It's just that it wouldn't surprise me.

    [ Parent ]
    DeLauro?
    Please, no. Just, no.

    If there needed to be a female alternative, I'd much rather see DWS or SHS, someone that's known as a bridge builder within the caucus. Although, I could see where DWS and SHS might not have enough seniority, I still think both of them would be amazing. They're both well liked by the entire caucus and have no problem working with the more liberal or conservative members.


    [ Parent ]
    SHS
    wouldn't be viable. She voted against all major Democratic initiatives this year. Progressives wouldn't go along.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree, SHS would be awful
    she votes perfectly fine for SD, but remember what happened to daschle.  imagine the same problem of reid and daschle being leadership from a conservative (or reddish purple in Reid's case) state having to run for re-election every two years.  every MAJOR leadership dem should come from a state/district of at least D+10

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Weird
    I've always been under the impression that she was liked within the Caucus.

    It's the reason Hoyer has been mentioned a few times. He might be just a liberal as Pelosi (or almost as liberal), but he's well liked by the Blue Dogs and he's not as outspoken as Pelosi.

    Blue Dogs and New Democrats combined make up quite a large portion of the Democratic Caucus.


    [ Parent ]
    But Pelosi isn't particularly disliked by Blue Dogs or New Dems
    I don't really take this "I won't vote for Pelosi" or "I don't know if I'm going to vote for Pelosi" talk seriously if the Democrats control the House by 2-3 votes because they'll have no choice if they want any committee assignments.

    It's a lot of bravado with few teeth behind it.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    The problem there is that you're ignoring the behind the scenes struggle that could take place.

    Bright, Taylor, and the others could very well make a strong enough behind the scenes argument that the Caucus would nominate someone else as Speaker.

    You're assuming Pelosi will automatically be the Democratic choice. That's where we're disagreeing.


    [ Parent ]
    I have no reason to believe they don't want Pelosi as Speaker
    Excluding Taylor, the rest are running for the first time (such as Herron) or seem to be saying so out of political expediency (after all, this is the first I've heard of Bright having anything bad to say about Pelosi).

    All these candidates are doing is separating themselves from national Democrats, if Steny Hoyer were Speaker, we'd be hearing about the horrors of Speaker Hoyer and his damned socialism and how southern Democrats are trying to distance themselves from the ultra-liberal Hoyer.

    I'll be shocked if they really mount a real campaign against Pelosi.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    I seem to recall Bright making an unfortunate statement about the Speaker in August.

    If you really think he's doing so out of expediency, then I'd suggest learning a little more about Bright.

    Sure the candidates are separating themselves from the national party, but that doesn't mean they won't go through with it.

    There's a difference between being non-committal and saying flat out no. Being non-committal is typical, but actively and proudly saying you will not vote for the Speaker is uncommon.

    Taylor's got a track record of voting against the party's choice. Bright could very well do the same thing.


    [ Parent ]
    Taylor voted for Pelosi when the Democrats were the majority party
    And frankly, you're missing that Bright and Taylor (and others) have a lot to lose by voting against Pelosi for Speaker assuming the Democrats keep their majority. It's a lot more likely that Bright will eat his words to keep his committee assignments rather than stand up for some principle (which magically appeared after he'd voted for Speaker Pelosi in his first term).

    As I said, I'll believe that those two would really vote against Pelosi (regardless of whether it's for Boehner) if control of the chamber were close (in the Democrats' favor) when they actually do it, and if they do, I'll take some consolation from the fact that they'll be stripped of their committee assignments and on the outs with both parties.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    If Democratic control depended on Pelosi stepping down as Speaker
    I have no doubt she would step down and be appreciated for her service and sacrifice. Should the elections result in a very small majority of Democrats in the House, I don't see any way the Democratic Caucus would allow Boehner to take over, rather than offering another Democratic candidate for Speaker if necessary.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    they could vote abstain
    or something like that as their protest, and thus keep their promise of not voting for Pelosi (as long as there's sufficient margin of course).
    Otherwise it'll probably be like breaking a term limit pledge which has been done dozens of times, and has anyone lost due to that? I doubt enough voters will care 2 years from now.
    (Now, a no new taxes promise- that's a different kettle of fish to break that. Right, Bush #41?)

    [ Parent ]
    DeLauro
    I had a good impression of her until she said she advocated recalling Senator Lieberman. Someone with so much seniority in the House should be well aware that it is unconstitutional to recall members of Congress. You have to wait for their terms to run out and defeat them at the polls.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    What if she went to a lower position by choice?
    Then, if Democrats do better in 2012 in the House, she can move back up.  It would be a mistake to retire, the GOP would be dancing the jig for the whole 112th Congress.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    No way. There are too many House members
    loyal to her and they aren't about to kick out the highest ranking woman in history and replace her with a man. It won't happen. Dems need the female vote and Pelosi is popular with women.

    [ Parent ]
    It's the right move politically for the voters he is trying to swing his direction
    Herron is making the smart political move for the political environment he is working under in TN-8. Herron seems to have some momentum on the ground, and this sort of move might dislodge some conservative Democrats and independents to move in his direction. These are type of voters who aren't keen on Fincher after the bloody primary and all the questionable loan allegations. The fact that the NRCC is committing more funds in TN-8 seems to indicate Herron is closing the gap, and they need to continue to commit resources as an insurance policy. While it is uncertain that Herron will be able to overcome Fincher's lead, it is clear he is forcing the NRCC, and outside groups, to spend money where the DCCC is not.

    Democrat: TN-8

    [ Parent ]
    Unlike Bobby Bright, he won't have the opportunity to make that decision.


    [ Parent ]
    RAS's WI poll
    was conducted on OCT 11, COLUMBUS DAY.  In SD, it's known as native American Day and the schools are off, if WI is similar, then they polled ON THE TAIL END OF A 3-DAY WEEKEND.  

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    new DKOS PPP POLL AK-SEN
    Miller:35
    Murk... querque!: 33
    McAdams: 26

    http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...  

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    TN-Gov: Haslam 59-McWherter 31
    According to the Knox News-Sentinel Rasmussen has released a poll indicating Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) crushing his opponent, Jackson businessman Mike McWherter (D), by a 59-31 margin.  

    Democrat: TN-8

    Policy related to politics
    DADT was just given an injunction and will be immediately stopped as a public policy even while the appeals process moves forward to further test it's unconstitutionality.  (The injunction can be appealed as well.)

    What is so tragic about all of this is Obama not using this to gin up support for the Democrats.  DADT has been the number one issue when it comes LGBT rights at the federal level and I cannot believe he is being so stupid as to throw away what would be an immediate infusion in energy this November.  If you want Democrats to turn-out, you need to give them a reason to.  And considering this would be 3-4 weeks right before the election, giving us this victory would be a great way to get us to volunteer.


    Furthermore
    the injunction could be appealed by the Feds and if that appeal were to succeed, Obama's administration would have reinstated DADT within weeks of the election.  My House seat prediction would skyrocket from 35-45 to 60-70.

    [ Parent ]
    The gAyTM
    Fundraising numbers were also way down among the LGBT set, I've lost the link, but their numbers would've fallen by more than half had the HRC not stepped up with a huge chunk of cash to the DCCC and DSCC. Which means "Don't Ask, Don't Give" was pretty successful. Frankly, good on the gays for playing hardball on this issue because I just don't understand why it's so fucking hard to repeal a law that 70% of the American public wants you to repeal.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    I'll skip my usual rant about this, and just say that most Democrats only give lip service to LGBT rights.


    [ Parent ]
    Hrmm
    Even though this is more policy based, I do think you need to consider a couple of things.

    1) The idea of Obama using this might help Democrats in some parts of the country, but it'll hurt the party in others.

    2) DADT might be a number one issue for the LGBT crowd but it'd bring about a revolt from social conservatives as well.

    3) Democrats need a reason locally to turn out. The less nationalization of this election, the better, in most areas.

    Besides, what vulnerable candidates do you think would benefit highly from this?

    Seems to me it'd hurt just as many (if not more) than it'd help.


    [ Parent ]
    Repealing DADT
    is enormously popular. I think it polls in the 70s nationally. And as it stands already, nothing will be keeping base conservatives from going to the polls. They're already fired up. Making some movement toward DADT repeal before the midterms could help galvanize the D side, narrowing the much-discussed enthusiasm gap.

    Could it have a detrimental effect in a couple districts? Sure. But I think there's a much greater likelihood it would have a positive effect in many more.


    [ Parent ]
    Nationally
    That's the thing, it's popular nationally, but how does that translate to specific areas of the country? It's easy to say 70% of the country support or oppose something, but if most of those polled are in a specific portion of the country, such as the westcoast or the southeast, or in mostly urban or mostly rural areas, then it's not really a great indicator.

    As far as base conservatives, there's already high energy, and having the President push on a social issue like LGBT rights will just make them turn out even more, plus it'll likely drive Conservative Democrats away from the party thereby hurting candidates like Manchin.

    Again, out of the most vulnerable districts, who would this help?

    It might help in some of the LGBT heavy areas, therefore helping an opponent like Mary Bono Mack's, but it certainly won't help in the South.


    [ Parent ]
    My point is
    that driving up the conservative vote even more is virtually impossible. But this could do a LOT to motivate liberals to get to the polls, even in the reddest districts. And if they chose, Dems in conservative districts (e.g. Bright and Taylor) could just use it as an opportunity to rail against their party and reassert their conservative bonafides.

    [ Parent ]
    Doubtful
    I still think the conservative vote could be higher. To say it's reached it's threshold already is hard to believe.

    You're saying it's likely to motivate liberals while conservatives are already maxed out.

    I'm more of the belief that it'll motivate liberals but also motivate more conservatives, therefore causing less of a "gain" than it seems.

    Again, where are the benefits? What vulnerable districts are helped by putting LGBT issues in the foreground?


    [ Parent ]
    That is such BS, RuralDem
    DADT is WAAAAAY different than an issue like gay marriage. Repealing DADT gets approval above 50% for REPUBLICANS. It's above 70% for indies and above 80% for Dems. And the Republicans are already going to turn out, it's the Democrats (like me, frankly) who are need to be given an actual reason to vote.

    "having the President push on a social issue like LGBT rights will just make them turn out even more" = BS, they're turning out anyway, they can't turn out anymore than they already are.  

    It will help. It won't hurt. Stop saying it will. There is absolutely no evidence to indicate it will. Period.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Alright
    So, your vote is dependent on DADT? That's unfortunate.

    Again, this is an argument where you're claiming social conservatives are maxed out. I simply think they're not maxed out.

    I'll quit saying it won't help when you provide some type of evidence that indicates it'll help those in vulnerable districts, which no one has done in this thread.

    I have no problem admitting if I'm wrong, but just because you tell me to stop doesn't mean I will.


    [ Parent ]
    I'd rather be on the side of 70% of the voting public
    than the 30%, most of whom won't vote for a Democrat, anyway. Especially when DADT has demonstrably negative effects on national security and is based on pure prejudice, in the face of conclusive evidence that other countries' armed forces work just fine with openly gay members. So supporting an immediate end to DADT is not only extremely popular but the right thing to do.

    Do you have any evidence that it will hurt in vulnerable districts? That seems counter-intuitive, given just how popular it is, so I think the burden of proof is on you.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Number
    As I stated earlier, the 70% is dependent on many factors. Location, type of setting, etc.

    Can someone provide a link to the polling that says over 70% support repeal? I hope it provides some insight on locations.

    Whether or not it is the proper thing to do is a policy discussion. I'm talking about the political reality of it.

    I would say repealing DADT would hurt Democrats in areas like AL-02, GA-02, GA-08, etc. If the poll says otherwise I'd like to see it.


    [ Parent ]
    Google can be your friend
    Why don't you research it and get back to us?

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    One main reason is because I'm not the one who brought it up.

    But hey, since you asked, I did do a Google search. Whether this is the right poll or not, I have no clue.

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/seat...

    Angus-Reid Public Opinion Survey.

    "From September 22 to September 23, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,012 American adults who are Springboard America panelists."

    http://www.visioncritical.com/...

    Online survey?

    I hope I'm looking at the wrong poll.


    [ Parent ]
    Here's one at 78% nationally...
    With something having so much support across the country, I think the number of districts showing net opposition would be tiny.

    Most Americans say people who are openly gay should be allowed to serve in the U.S. military, according to a new national poll.

    A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that 78 percent of the public supports allowing openly gay people to serve in the military, with one in five opposed.

    "Support is widespread, even among Republicans. Nearly six in ten Republicans favor allowing openly gay individuals to serve in the military," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "There is a gender gap, with 85 percent of women and 71 percent of men favoring the change, but support remains high among both groups."

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c...


    [ Parent ]
    Maybe
    Maybe I'm just clueless when it comes to national polling, but that poll doesn't really give any details either.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2...

    90% could support or oppose something, but if its all based in one geographic location, then its pointless.

    I'm not insinuating that anyone is doing that, but, my point still stands, there are areas where LGBT issues are a negative for vulnerable Democrats.

    If the Democratic Party makes this an issue before the election, then they'll risk forcing Bright, Taylor, Marshall, etc., to possibly waste time mentioning the issue.

    Again, what vulnerable districts would this help other than the one I mentioned?


    [ Parent ]
    When something has the approval of 78%
    of the American people, the sheer weight of statistics would make it VERY hard for more than a handful of individual districts to have net opposition.

    And these aren't just "LGBT issues." They're issues of fairness and national security that MANY people ascribe to. Granted my friends lean toward the liberal, but on Facebook, I see posts against DADT all the time, and mostly from those who are straight.

    You want me to list districts. You keep asking that. It's my contention that even deep red districts would benefit from a push for DADT repeal. You don't buy that. You think conservative enthusiasm could be increased just as much as liberal enthusiasm. To me, the laws of diminishing returns dictate that conservatives don't have as much to gain, unless they're going to vote at levels that exceed 100%.

    So my list of districts would be very, very long. It would include the New Hampshire districts, Philly suburbs, a couple in Colorado, Florida, and all the way into deep red territory.

    And as I said previously, conservative Ds who were vulnerable could turn the issue to their advantage, if they wanted, by making a bold, unequivocal declaration in defiance of the president and the party.


    [ Parent ]
    Huh
    For all we know, someone could have polled San Francisco, Atlanta and NYC and found 78%.

    That's the point, we don't know where that one poll actually polled in the country. I don't count the Angus-Reid, because of the online survey they used.

    Conservatives don't have much to gain? For all we know, enough conservatives could come out in close districts to swing the vote towards the Republican. I don't know that for certain, nor do you. I do however believe that overall there are more conservatives than liberals, therefore I do believe more conservatives can turn out.

    Conservative Democrats would have to waste time focusing on an issue that they shouldn't have to focus on. It's not them coming out against the party, it's actually having to waste the time and resources to do so.

    As far as your definition of the DADT, that's fine, call it whatever you want. I haven't stated my view on it but considering it was brought up in the context of being an LGBT issue, that's why I call it that. This isn't about personal views, it's about the political races that will be impacted.


    [ Parent ]
    It was a NATIONAL poll,
    not a poll of San Francisco, Atlanta, and New York. I have no idea why you would assert otherwise. I am fairly confident that CNN, when polling the NATION, reaches outside of the urban centers. If you have reason to believe otherwise, please provide specifics.

    [ Parent ]
    Again
    I'm simply saying we don't know where all they polled. Did they lean heavily towards one specific area of the country?

    We don't know because they don't provide any info!

    Surely you realize that polling heavily in the South would probably provide a lower percentage than the west coast or north east, right?

    I have no doubt CNN reaches outside of urban areas, I'm not sure why you're saying that. I threw up those three names as an example, re read my post.

    If I had specifics of where they polled, I wouldn't be asking, would I?


    [ Parent ]
    So you ignore any
    national poll without regional crosstabs right?

    Also you always maintain that the South isn't going to be that bad for Democrats because Bobby Bright, Gene Taylor etc can localize their races. So if they can localize their races, why would it be a problem? If DADT is below 50% in the South, that would mean it's in the 90s in the rest of the country. So just because something supposedly hurts in the area of the country that you claim isn't problematic doesn't mean we shouldn't pursue it if it has basically unanimous support in the parts of the country that we're getting hurt in.

    Your suggestion that it would animate more conservatives than liberals also seems dubious. Right now, more conservatives than liberals plan on voting (%-wise), which means comparatively more liberals remain to be convinced to vote. In other words, those trying to get liberals to vote have a bigger pool to work with than those trying to get conservatives to vote.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    I'm just saying that although a national poll says a certain percentage of voters support or approve of something in general, it's difficult to say much about it without some information on the regional aspect of the poll.

    All we really have from the one online pollster and the other poll posted are the party affiliation.

    It'd be nice to have a little more information. I'm surprised anyone would complain about that, especially on a site like this.

    Last I checked there are vulnerable seats outside of the South, correct? Let's take Ohio for instance or Indiana. On a regional basis, it'd be nice to know the DADT numbers for the Midwest. Would focusing on DADT help more liberals than conservatives turn out in the race for Ellsworth's open seat? How about in Ohio, would DADT bring out more liberals to help out Zack Space, or would conservatives show up in droves?

    I believe there are more conservatives in general than liberals, therefore, I see nothing wrong with thinking more of BOTH sides could turn out if the party puts a focus on DADT. Conservatives are certainly more engaged right now, but considering I think conservatives outnumber liberals by far in general, then there's a larger pool of conservative voters out there than liberal voters.

    In some areas that are vulnerable, the number of conservatives that turn out might outnumber the number of liberals, and vice versa.

    It might poll well in the Westcoast, but the last time I checked, those voters won't be voting for Space or Hill.

    Oh, and this isn't me just ranting about the South, so please, use another line.


    [ Parent ]
    Um
    The West Coast is what, 1/6 of the country? Thereabouts. The fact that there are competitive races on the West Coast aside (WA-03, WA-08, CA-11, etc), even if the West Coast were giving 100% support to DADT repeal, which is obviously not true, support would have to be somewhere in, I dunno, 60s or low 70s in the rest of the country. I guess what you're saying is theoretically possible but it's just too nebulous an argument against something so clearly beneficial. Buying your argument requires supposing that there is a HUGE amount of polarization on this issue. I can accept that support is much higher in California than Alabama but getting to the conclusion that all of the opposition is concentrated in competitive districts is hard. Yes, more information would be nice, but the information we do have is much more likely than not not to support your argument.

    What you have to remember is that not every competitive seat is in socially conservative or even Republican territory. Look at OH-15, NY-01, NJ-03, etc. these seats are pretty swingy and not particularly socially conservative. I would bet you anything that DADT repeal is overwhelmingly popular in these areas. I also don't understand why something the national party does hurts the Democrats you claim are localizing their races. Surely you think it hurts the same or even less than things like health care reform, the stimulus, etc.

    Your argument about conservatives being energized is, again, theoretically possible but not very strong because of how improbable it is. We're the ones being hurt by the enthusiasm gap, we have more to gain. If you have evidence to suggest that significantly more conservatives will vote than liberals if DADT passes, please present it.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Conservatives are all homophobic?
    I get the feeling from the phrasing of this post that you don't believe there are a fair number of conservatives who support DADT repeal. I disagree. Not all conservatives are bigots and some are libertarians.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    And also, I'd add
    that I think the Republican Party agrees with me. That's why they did everything in their power to hold up consideration of DADT until after the election (and why Dems did everything in their power to advance it).

    [ Parent ]
    I think the right question
    is whether DADT can truly motivate base voters to come out for House/Senate Ds who are in trouble --

    or is it an issue -- once repealed, it becomes something forgotten by currently unmotivated Ds.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm relatively new here,
    but telling another community member their criteria for voting is "unfortunate" seems outside the scope of our horserace discussions.

    [ Parent ]
    Considering
    That nothing will likely be done about DADT before the election, I'd say using it as a criteria for voting is unfortunate. Voting is one of the most sacred values we possess in this country.

    I'm not sure how that's offensive.

    But hey, feel free to make something out of nothing!


    [ Parent ]

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