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SSP Daily Digest: 10/11 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 8:00 AM EDT


  • CO-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog is doing a rally for Sen. Michael Bennet in Denver on Oct. 18th. Interestingly, Bill had endorsed Andrew Romanoff in the primary.
  • CT-Sen: Open seat fans, start getting ready for the 2022 cycle! In a weird attempt to channel 1994, Linda McMahon says she will serve a maximum of two terms. Uh, okay.
  • NY-Gov: The Carl Paladino charm offensive continues:
  • Flame-throwing Republican Carl Paladino erupted again, declaring yesterday that being gay is "not the example that we should be showing our children."

    "I don't want [children] brainwashed into thinking homosexuality is an equally valid and successful option - it isn't," Paladino said to applause at a meeting with Hasidic Jewish leaders in Brooklyn's Williamsburg section.

    In a version of the speech distributed by a rabbi, the anti-gay rant went further, charging there is "nothing to be proud of in being a dysfunctional homosexual."

    Getting less play, but likely to damage him among the very community he was trying to reach out to, were Paladino's remarks attacking Orthodox Jewish "power brokers" who supposedly have conned key rabbis.

  • AZ-07: While my feeling is that Raul Grijalva probably does have a competitive race on his hands, I'm not sure this Politico piece really adds much in the way of new news. All we have is that one Magellan poll which showed the race tight, and a lot of whispers. It's almost like Politico is holding up a mirror at the edge of a rippling pond and - lo and behold! - making the ripples appear to be twice as broad as they actually are. The only real tidbit here is that Rep. Xavier Becerra, a member of leadership, recently exhorted Congressional Hispanic Caucus members to give to Grijalva.
  • MI-07: Former Rep. Joe Schwarz once again endorsed Mark Schauer, the man who beat Tim Walberg - aka the man who beat Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary in 2006. Schwarz also backed Schauer in 2008 (and previously backed Walberg's opponent Brian Rooney in this year's Republican primary).
  • NJ-03: This is the kind of thing which makes the bedwetters at newspaper editorial boards wring their hands like mad men, but as far as I'm concerned, it's just good politics. The Courier-Post has a detailed story explaining how Democrats helped mysterious teabagger Peter DeStefano get on the ballot. No one except us junkies care about process stories, so I think Dems should be doing a lot more of this kind of thing.
  • NY-02: NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg heads outside city and party lines to endorse Democratic Long Island Rep. Steve Israel.
  • SC-05: Yet another Republican hypocrite. John Spratt's been hitting Mick Mulvaney for his involvement in a real estate development deal that received a $30 million loan from Lancaster County and then went south - but not before Mulvaney flipped the property for a profit. Now Mulvaney says, "I believe small business needs government to get out of the way." Spratt fired back: "When he needed $30 million, he didn't go to his bank, he didn't go to private sources, he went to county government." Spratt's also been running an ad on this issue.
  • TX-17: Man, yet another similar story. Here Dave Michaels of the Dallas Morning News' lede says it all: "The Republican challenger who has assailed Rep. Chet Edwards for supporting taxpayer bailouts once led his company through a bankruptcy that let it avoid a $7.5 million debt to the U.S. government." The piece goes on to note that (predictably) Flores "insists that private companies shouldn't rely on the government for subsidies or financing." Of course he does.
  • Chamber of Commerce: The LA Times has a piece noting that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been digging deep to help a bunch of Blue Dogs late this cycle, including TV ads on behalf of Jim Marshall (GA-08), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Travis Childers (MS-01), and Bobby Bright (AL-02). These spots are taking the form of "issue" ads so as to avoid election-related regulations - you can see one example here.
  • DGA: The DGA says it raised $10 million in the third quarter and has $13 million on hand. Allied groups have some $3 million in cash. Politico says the RGA is expected to top these numbers.
  • SSP TV:

    • DE-Sen: A shadowy third-party group has a funny new ad out supporting Zerata the Enchantress... uh, I mean, Christine O'Donnell
    • IL-Sen: A new spot from MoveOn hits a topic Dems nationwide have been making a big issue of recently: foreign money being used to potentially support Chamber of Commerce election activities
    • KY-Sen: Another Jack Conway ad hitting Rand Paul for his $2,000 Medicare deductable scheme - and his desire to increase payments to doctors
    • LA-Sen: Wow. This must-see ad from David Vitter takes the cake as by far the most racist ad of the 2010 cycle
    • WV-Sen: Joe Manchin attacks John Raese for the "hicky" ad casting call - and the fact that Raese wife is registered to vote in Florida and can't even vote for her husband. A second ad could have been written and produced by Republicans
    • SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen goes after Nikki Haley for double-speak on economic issues, though I think it tries to cram too many things in, and the drum-beat kind of interferes with the audio
    • IL-17: The conservative American Future Fund says they're dropping half a million bucks on a new ad campaign targeting Rep. Phil Hare - here's what they're spending it on
    • LA-02: Joe Cao has a pretty good ad hitting Cedric Richmond on ethical issues
    • MA-10: Dem Bill Keating has a good ad nailing Jeff Perry for the illegal strip-search business that took place on his watch as a police sergeant
    • MN-01: GOPer Randy Demmer has a comparison spot, going after Tim Walz for the usual (healthcare, cap-n-trade, etc.) and then finishing with some positive bio-ish crap
    • PA-08: Patrick Murphy attacks Mike Fitzpatrick for raising property taxes
    • SC-02: Rob Miller goes after Joe Wilson for spending taxpayer money on travel to Hawaii and France
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/11 (Morning Edition)
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    Want to see the DE-Sen thing so badly...
    Hulu apparently is blocked in Japan because of some stupid copyright thing. anyone know a solution?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Possible solution: Anonymous proxy options
    Enter "anonymous proxy" in the search engine of your choice.

    the most well known are Anonymizer for Windows and Tor for Linux.

    One of the problems w/r/t anonymizers is speed -- many such as Tor use a rotating set of sites around the world, and that would lead to lags when watching videos.

    Anonymizer uses an IP from I think Sunnyvale. But as it is a commercial solution, they may not want to run afoul of Japanese law.

    The alternative is a SSH tunnel, which I've only tested on private networks via Linux for documentation purposes. If you run Linux, I'll give you the source for said commands. But encapsulation would also slow things down.


    [ Parent ]
    Don't know if this is pertinent
    but once I tried to use the UChicago VPN to view Hulu (it helped me view YouTube in China in the rare instance that I had wireless internet) and it completely messed up my internet. do you know if these would do the same?

    I run Mac btw. but thanks for the help!

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Whatever option is selected
    you need to know how to manage the proxy server settings for your browser and email reader.  

    [ Parent ]
    someone posted a youtube clip of it
    In one of the open threads.  Not sure how SNL is with youtube clips of their show so it might be taken down by now.

    [ Parent ]
    I saw that yesterday...
    I don't think it's working anymore. Seems to have been pulled from YouTube for copyright violations.

    [ Parent ]
    LA-SEN: Despicable ad getting decent airplay
    I saw the ad mentioned above while watching the LSU-Florida game while in the New Orleans DMA. My jaw dropped, at first I didn't think it was real.

    As a liberal, there aren't a lot of Republicans I would vote for (none currently in Congress and only two possible governors, those being Arnold Schwarzenegger out in CA and Charlie Crist out in FL); however, I would gladly switch my party registration in Louisiana from No Party to Republican just so I could vote for a credible Republican challenger to Mr. Vitter (and no, Chet Traylor was not a credible challenger).

    I would vote for any of the current Republican congressmen, maybe at the exception of Steve Scalise, and definitely our current governor.

    This ad is a huge embarrassment for our state.

    Nevertheless, I am soon about to publish a diary on a story that has many deep Republican insiders worried that will break before election day. Hopefully, The Times-Picayune will crack it with hard evidence before November,as that is the only shot Mr. Melancon has on toppling the worst Senator in the Senate.

    21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)


    I'll be interested to hear what it is
    But unless it involves Vitter murdering someone, it won't help. Obama is just hated by the white majority in Louisiana, and they will not vote for Melancon because of the D by his name.  

    [ Parent ]
    BTW: That is one ugly and nasty ad
    I just viewed it. Yep, definitely the most racist of the cycle, by a long shot.  

    [ Parent ]
    His ads are all over
    I see Vitter ads all the time. Melancon is just starting to respond. Also, if you don't mind me asking, why would you take, say, John Fleming, over Steve Scalise?  

    [ Parent ]
    Excellent bit on the so-called "50% rule" from Nate
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

    For those incumbents who were leading in the polls, but below 50%

    If you combine the three types of incumbents - House, Senate, gubernatorial - they had a record of 67-16, which equates to a winning percentage of 81 percent. Depending on how you define the term, they may not have been "safe" for re-election - but certainly, most were favorites.

    And there was only a slight overall break towards the challenger

    On average, the incumbent candidates led by 7.7 points in the polls with 30 days to go; they won their elections by an average of 7.3 points. That's not a significant difference, needless to say.

    And the "rule" holds up least in the House:

    In fact, however, the House incumbents in our sample did very well: 32 out of 35 of them won their races, or 91 percent:

    Though Nate identifies a weakness in his numbers

    I'm referring to here is a "lo-fi" version that weights for sample size and the recency of the poll, but not for pollster quality.


    IA-01
    Bruce Braley and Ben Lange did a joint appearance on Iowa Public Television on Friday and debated last night. Lange is trying to distance himself from the American Future Fund's huge spending against Braley.

    Last week Braley visited the American Future Fund's registered address, which turns out to be a mailbox at a UPS store in Des Moines:



    CT-SEN
    I take her term limits pledge as seriously as a Ric Flair retirement announcement.

    Frankly, I think McMahon will find herself bored silly in the U.S. Senate
    Should she somehow win and serve-out a term or two, I could definitely see her make a gubernatorial run, or - gasp - even run for president. Or, a Republican president could save her and give her a cabinet spot.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Meh…
    I think your giving her way too much credit. If she wins this year (almost impossible) she serves at most a term. I think she would probably be a gaffe tastic Senator. Even if she wins and keeps a low profile I still don't see her winning six years down the road. A moot point as she is not going to win this year anyway.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I don't see how AZ-07 could ever go to the GOP
    its a gerrymandered Dem. district and it would'nt it be the most Dem district in GOP hands if they won it minus LA-02/HI-01 which will almost certainly go dem anyway.

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    I don't think it was gerrymandered to be D
    Isn't AZ's redistricting done by nonpartisan commission?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    When you're advocating an economic boycott of your own state, that's not something most people do. Usually you go to Congress and try to help your state, not hurt it.

    Yes, I understand his reasoning behind it, but still, you're elected to Congress to represent your district and/or state.

    Grijalva just likes to see himself on tv and in the news it seems.


    [ Parent ]
    Steve Driehaus
    is left to sink on his own:

    http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...


    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    No surprise there
    Smart move, in my opinion. That money could be put to better use elsewhere.

    [ Parent ]
    Let's get out of OH-15 now and redirect it to OH-13, OH-16, and OH-18!


    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    OH-13
    is probably moving into the Safe(r) column. Doesn't hurt when your opponent is accused of sexual harassment by a former supporter. Plus, Kaptur's district is right next door, so I'm sure OH-13 residents are hearing plenty about the Nazi-impersonating Republican.

    [ Parent ]
    Appointed Sen. Michael Bennet: Too Weak
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2I7OotGpWw


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