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MO, NV, NY: CNN/Time Roundup

by: James L.

Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 6:02 PM EDT


Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/1-5, likely voters):

MO-Sen:

Robin Carnahan (D): 40
Roy Blunt (R): 53
(MoE: ±3.5%)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov (9/10-14 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)
Sharron Angle (R): 42 (42)
Scott Ashjian (T): 7 (5)

Rory Reid (D): 33 (31)
Brian Sandoval (R): 56 (58)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Interestingly, Harry Reid's lead actually increased among registered voters -- from 42-34 in September to 43-32 today. Without Ashjian on the ballot, Angle still leads by the same margin among LVs, 47-45.

NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55
Joe DioGuardi (R): 41

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55
Carl Paladino (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)

Again, turnout is a factor here. Among RVs, Gillibrand leads DioGuardi by 60-33, and Cuomo stomps the repulsively vile Carl Paladino by 65-31. This poll also tested Chuck Schumer's re-election, and finds him up by 57-41 over Jay Townsend.
James L. :: MO, NV, NY: CNN/Time Roundup
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MO, NV, NY: CNN/Time Roundup | 42 comments
What is going on in Missouri?
Missouri was supposed to be our best pick up opportunity. I understand that this is a horrible cycle for us, but 13 points? Really? How bad of a campaign is Carnahan running?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
She
She's running in the wrong year.  She sort of tried to run as an 'outsider' which it laughable considering she's from the first family of Missouri politics.  McCain won this state, however close it was, and I never thought that the chances for a pickup were that great once the cycle turned hard against the Dems.  Blunt has run a solid campaign with good fundraising.  Carnahan ran an ad against him for a vote he took which sort of backfired because her brother - also a congressman - had voted the same way as Blunt.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
She's not a running a bad campaign
It's just a bad year, and Obama's approvals in MO are particularly bad for a swing-ish state.

I suspect this poll overstates Blunt's margin slightly - it's probably Blunt by about 6-8 points. And despite this poll, I do think there's an outside chance of a win, mainly because Senate races in MO tend to be close, so I could imagine this ending up within 5 points. But it's very unlikely she'll be able to get over the hump without a massive and completely unexpected change in the environment.

She'll probably be back though. It's almost a right of passage for MO politicians to lose a high-profile statewide race before coming back:

- John Danforth: lost a US Senate race in 1970 (won it in 1976)

- Kit Bond: lost his gubernatorial reelection bid in 1976 (reelected in 1980 then won a U.S. Senate election in 1986)

- John Ashcroft: lost a bid for State Auditor in 1974 (elected AG in 1976, elected Governor in 1980, elected Senator in 1994)

- Mel Carnahan: lost a gubernatorial primary in 1984 (elected LG in 1988, and governor in 1992)

- Jim Talent: lost a governor's race in 2000 (elected to the Senate in '02; lost in '06, now favored as Republican nominee for that seat in '12)

- Claire McCaskill: lost a bid for governor in 2004 (elected to the Senate in '06)

... so I suspect that Carnahan will, if she loses, run for reelection as SoS in '12 and if she wins, she'll probably run for governor in 2016 or run for the Senate again, either in 2016 or in 2018 if Talent defeats McCaskill in 2012.  

[ Parent ]
Oh and of course Jay Nixon
Lost Senate bids in '88 and '98, but won the governor's mansion in 2008.  
[ Parent ]
Really Not That Surprising When You Look At Arkansas.....
....where Blanche Lincoln has been underperforming even Barack Obama in the 2008 20-point McCain blowout.   The states aren't identical cousins, but the demographics are similar enough to where the Democratic Party's wholesale collapse in one state can realistically portend a similar fate in the other....especially with the likelihood that many of those young Obama voters in suburban St. Louis not showing up in a midterm.
[ Parent ]
The crosstabs on the MO poll are interesting
Even among likely voters, it has Obama at 48/47 among Likely Voters in the St. Louis Area, though of course how they define "St. Louis" area is an open question. (Just St. Louis City and St. Louis County? The official MSA?) They also say that in "older suburbs" his approval is 50%.

What the poll says is that Obama's numbers have crashed in the Kansas City area, and that Carnahan is doing extremely poorly there.  

[ Parent ]
Jon Ralston on the polls:
CNN poll has several permutations, inc. one with Ashjian, Reid, Angle and none. Weird. Doesn't have full ballot test.

More on CNN: Crosstabs suggest more indies than Rs or Ds, and more Rs than Ds. No way more indies turn out than Ds or Rs. #hatepubpolls

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Thank goodness for that guy
He consistently paints a more encouraging picture of what is happening on the ground than the polls indicate.
[ Parent ]
As Ralston has said...
Most of these public polls are pure CRAP! No whay in hell Indie turnout is higher than both Dems and Reeps! And no way in hell more Reeps than Dems turn out as they suggest. CNN has no clue how to poll Nevada, so from now on I won't take their NV polls seriously.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
NY Turnout Gap
Despite the good numbers for Cuomo, Gillibrand and Schumer, what's especially striking is the turnout gap for NY voters. Among New York Likely Voters, the survey says that Obama's approval ratings are upside down at 45/48. Yet among the overall population it's 56/36. If that's accurate, that could mean big trouble for the House races in the state.  
Message to CNN: Poll better races
We don't need the fifth poll of the week confirming that, in fact, Blumenthal is ahead by 10 plus or minus 4 and that Dan Malloy is also ahead.

Also CNN, please resist the urge to poll New York.  They just aren't that crazy about Carl Paladino.

Here would have been a better list for races for this week:

West Virginia (seriously need someone besides Ras and PPP here)
Wisconsin
Nevada
Missouri

Ohio, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Colorado, Washington, Pennsylvania and Illinois (they did this last week) would have all made more sense.

Amen!
I couldn't agree more!

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
I'd add NH to that list.

[ Parent ]
Maybe CNN first needs to learn...
How to poll better. It looks like they botched us again. At this point, I don't know if I want to see more of their numbers if I can't trust their numbers to add up correctly.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Wait a Minute....I Thought Things Were Getting Better For Democrats!!!!
My fear is every race is gonna close the way Ohio has for some time, and Wisconsin and Missouri are now.  For all the fantasies indulged by many about Democrats "catching up", nine state or district polls out of 10 indicate the opposite is true....and the gap is growing.
I strongly disagree. The gap is closing.
Republican interest in voting is so high that the enthusiasm gap can't grow any bigger. I wouldn't panic based entirely on these polls.

You mentioned what's happened in the Ohio Senate race. The reason Wisconsin and Missouri aren't going be as lopsided as Ohio is because Feingold and Carnahan aren't nearly at the financial disadvantage that Lee Fisher is. Now that doesn't mean we'll win those races, but I'd be truly shocked if Blunt and Johnson win those seats by double digits as it seem Rob Portman is almost certain to.

We're going to lose Senate seats next month. Everyone agrees on that. Right now, I'd say we'll lose ND, AR, IN, PA, WI and maybe CO/WV, although I have strong doubts as to whether John Raese can get elected there. Worst case scenario, we lose 7 seats. That's bad, but really not so terrible for a midterm election. We're just lucky the GOP primary voters in NV and DE done goofed.

[ Parent ]
Reid is unmistakably slipping in NV
It seems like his best hope now is that the demographic models are totally wrong (as they appear to have been in 2008).
I'd Say That Reid Has To Be Up By Five In The Final Week.....
....to avoid getting killed by the enthusiasm gap.  A good chunk of Reid's support is soft, as evidenced by the fact that he was 10 points before Angle became his opponent.  It's gonna be very hard to motivate those voters to show up.  He's not dead yet, but I'd much rather be in Angle's position right now.
[ Parent ]
Disagree
The Democratic/union turnout operation in Clark County is worth a couple of points.  The "enthusiasm gap" is already baked into the numbers and will be up to the end.
[ Parent ]
I'm really not sure what else he should do
His ads appear to tell the story needed to scare Democrats into voting. In his case, it is quite unfortunate that he is not pro-choice.  
[ Parent ]
Her disapprovals
aren't that far off from his, based on other polling.
[ Parent ]
Early voting starts in 10 days
That makes it somewhat easier to fight an enthusiasm gap.
[ Parent ]
No, he's not...
As Ralston explained, this was a lousy sample. Again, no way in hell Independent turnout beats both D's and R's. Indies don't turn out as much in midterms, and last I checked only 15% of NV voters are Nonpartisan.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
He's been slipping in almost every public poll
for the past two weeks. Apparently the damage is in Reno.  
[ Parent ]
Other than Rasmussen/Pulse,
I haven't seen much if any change. The race seems to have stagnated at a tie.  
[ Parent ]
Like it or not, Ras can show a trend
A month ago, the race was a tie with Reid a few notches ahead. Now it's a tie with Angle a few notches ahead.  
[ Parent ]
But Razzy is conflicting itself...
Last week's Razzy brand poll had Reid +1, up from a tie. However, te Pulse brand poll had Angle +3, up from Angle +1. So which Razzy are we to believe? I'll take the original Razzy, just b/c their internals made more sense.

Still, both have bounced around and neither is safe from statistical noise.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
It is all so tiny whatever the truth

[ Parent ]
Your characterization of the trend is incorrect. Here is what Rasmussen...
...has showed in order of polling from recent to oldest going back to the beginning of August, and of course including Fox polls which are really Rasmussen.

10/2  Angle 49-46
9/28  Reid 48-47
9/18  Angle 46-45
9/13  48-48
9/11  Angle 45-44
9/1   Reid 50-47
8/16  Angle 50-48

This is no trend at all.

Oh, and if you segregate the Fox polls from the ones on Rasmussen's web site, all 3 September/October polls showing Angle on top are Fox, and the Rasmussen web site has had its last 3 showing a Reid lead, a tie, and then a Reid lead.

This is no trend, it's a static race.

And as always, Rasmussen skews Republican.  The Pollster.com chart shows Reid up 45.9 to 45 with Rasmussen, and a larger 45.6 to 43.9 without Rasmussen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Again, most public polls are crap...
And the ones done here have certainly been crap. Last time, CNN screwed up in suggesting Reid was doing better in Reno than Vegas. And this time, they claim Independents will be a plurality of voters. That's just wrong, as Nonpartisan registration is only 15%!

The only public polls I remotely trust are Razzy's (non-Faux) and PPP's. Hopefully, PPP will come next week and get a better picture of what's going on. But even with them, they're not perfect.

And I trust the private polling and the on-the-ground reports much more than any of this.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Reid
I am not sure if this race has changed at all. It seems like it has been a toss up for some time.

That said, Reid is in a tough spot. He has been firing broadsides non stop and can't get any real traction. I suspect he has the better ground game, but the climate is bad and if those undecideds haven't been scared away from Angle yet, when will they be?  Plus, his son is likely to lose, maybe pretty badly, and that won't help. Barring any big gaffe from one of the candidates (quite an assumption with these two), I think this will be one of those that flips the way the rest do as tends to happen in senate elections and happened in 06 and 08.  That can't be too reassuring a thought for  Reid.  

Only so many polls can be spun away. Polls cannot and do not capture reality perfectly, but they tend to present a pretty good picture when a lot are put togetheher. If not a toss up, where do you think the race stands from on the ground?      

[ Parent ]
When is their debate?

[ Parent ]
I'll answer that myself
October 14. If he can't build a lead after that he never will.
[ Parent ]
When is their debate?

[ Parent ]
Not if most of the public polling...
Has been deeply flawed. Again, follow Jon Ralston on Twitter. He explains in further detail what I've been trying to say here. How can one believe the top lines if the figures used to get there can't be trusted?

Here's what I see on the ground. I see teabaggers eager to get rid of Reid. They hate him, even if they can't explain why they hate him, and they'll vote for a circus clown over Harry. Angle has them in the bag.

Over the last 6 months, Reid has consolidated the Dem base. The unions are all in for him. The enviros are all in for him. LGBTQ groups are all in for him. They all despise Angle, and have a strong interest in making her go down in flames.

The independents are all over the place. Some hate Reid enough to vote for Angle. Many hate Angle enough to vote for Reid. And many are pissed off with everything, and may not even vote. (Trust me, there's no way in hell Indie turnout overtakes both D's and R's!)

And the Nevada GOP establishment is deeply divided. Some are shutting up and feigning support for Angle because they don't want the teabaggers coming after them next. Some are revolted by the teabaggers and their new leader, as they've known Angle for some time and came to hate her long ago, so they're "Republicans for Reid". And some are just sitting on their hands and watching Angle's campaign go haywire.

This race will be close, mainly because of all the media hype and both Angle's and Reid's negatives. But at the end of the day, I have to doubt anyone planning to coronate Angle right now because of some faulty public polls when I see a different picture and Ralston's revelations of the private polls and secret discussions show something quite different is happening.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Also, State Senate Minority Leader Bill Raggio might endorse Reid tonight.
I hope he does.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
One ad Reid needs that hasn't been done is...
...a Republicans for Reid ad, with these prominent GOPers speaking into the camara saying why they support Reid.

That might be a good positive closing argument ad, and help fence-sitters "feel" like it's "acceptable" to vote for Harry Reid even though they've grown to dislike him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Why Rasmussen and not Pulse for Fox?
They're conducted by the same people using the same methodology, except one is for a news media client and the other is fully independent. That the Rasmussen and Fox polls from the same week show slightly different results is a testament to the volatile nature of polling--if you poll 2 groups of 500 likely voters from the same state, you're apt to get somewhat different results. Rasmussen and Pulse/Fox are constantly getting statistical ties, with insignificant leads for both, so there's really no way to characterize this but a tossup.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Pulse's internals made no sense...
They had more Reeps than Dems and more men than women. Ralston called BS on this, and rightly so. How am I supposed to believe the top lines if the figures they used to get them are faulty?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I looked up the '06 exit polls
In 2006, CNN had the electorate at 50 male/50 female, and 40R/34D. (Link: http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/200... The electorate was 48 male/52 female and 38D/30R in 2008. Part of that can be attributed to the Obama field operation and their excellent work registering new Democratic voters, but as you and others have pointed out, 2006 was more of a neutral than Democratic year in Nevada, while 2008 was a phenomenal Democratic one.

If the electorate was dead even gender-wise in 2006, more men than women is reasonable this year because of the Republican  environment. I remember an article (perhaps on Politico, I'm not sure) that noted that Democrats were worried that men would outnumber women in many states this year because of the enthusiasm gap. Also, no matter how good Reid's field operation is, he's not as good a candidate as Obama and it will be hard to turn out those new Obama voters for a somewhat uninspiring old white guy in a much worse year. If CNN's '06 poll was right, I can believe small advantages for men and Republicans at the polls in Nevada.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Hard to tell from polling itself, but on balance Reid still has the edge based on...
...an examination of WHO is polling compared with Ralston's commentary on the polling.

The key is Ralston, because private numbers are released to him, and he's indicated Reid leads in all those numbers.  The POS survey was the only one made public and showed Reid up 5, and that's the same firm doing Angle's own polling.

The other polls out the last 7 over a month's time have been 4 from Rasmussen, 2 from from CNN/Time with the previous one showing virtually identical 42-41 numbers with Angle by a point, and Mason-Dixon showing a 43-43 tie.  Rasmussen, for its part, was showing Angle reaching 50(!) back in August as the lone outlier in a string of 10 out of 11 polls that showed Reid leading.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Slipping?
It's off from the margin in their last poll by 1 point. In other words, accounting for margin of error, Reid could be doing better or worse than he was doing a few weeks ago.
[ Parent ]
MO, NV, NY: CNN/Time Roundup | 42 comments

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