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NM-Gov, NM-01, NM-02: Martinez, Heinrich, Pearce Lead

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 7:20 PM EDT


Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal (9/27-29, likely voters, 8/23-27 in parentheses):

Diane Denish (D): 42 (39)
Susana Martinez (R): 49 (45)
Undecided: 9 (16)
(MoE: ±3%)

House numbers:

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 48 (47)
Jon Barela (R): 41 (41)
Undecided: 11 (12)

Harry Teague (D-inc): 45 (45)
Steve Pearce (R): 46 (42)
Undecided: 9 (13)
(MoE: ±5%)

Here's another state where things are staying pretty consistent over the last month. Over the course of September, Susana Martinez's lead over Diane Denish has remained at 7, as they've both made gains from undecided, but Martinez is getting dangerously close to 50. (The basic story of this election is: what sounds better on your resume, "district attorney" or "Bill Richardson's #2?")

Likewise, things barely budged in the 1st, where Martin Heinrich added one point to his already decent-but-not-decisive lead. (It's looking more and more like that SurveyUSA poll that gave a lead to Jon Barela a few months ago was quite the outlier.) The needle moved only a little more in the 2nd, where the polls have shown a true tossup... but the movement was enough to drop Dem incumbent Harry Teague from a surprising 3-point lead to a 1-point deficit (exactly where he was in a PPP poll a few weeks ago, too).

Crisitunity :: NM-Gov, NM-01, NM-02: Martinez, Heinrich, Pearce Lead
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Is Martinez still getting 25% of the Dem Latino vote?


If Martinez wins
How is it going to effect redistricting?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Well, in the worst case scenario,
It wil be a 2-1 delegation after this year. I think they would try to protect Heinrich and Pearce.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
NM will be gaining
1 district.. So I'd expect 3-1 Dem or 2-2 split. 4-0 if Dems controlled the trifecta (possibly), but still may go 3-1.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
?
NM probably won't gain a district.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
NM will be gaining a district !?!?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
There will hardly be any change
NM is not going to gain any seats this year. 2020 is more likely with the steady growth. The way the districts are cut NM-01 is basically Albuquerque so that will be hard to change. NM-02 is southern New Mexico with Las Cruces and the Little Texas towns as the population base. NM-03 is northern New Mexico and is anchored by Santa Fe. The only way that they could protect Pearce is to somehow move Las Cruces out of his district which is just about impossible. The only way to expose Heinrich/Lujan would be to dilute the impact of Albuquerque (swing city slightly blue) and Santa Fe (super blue). There just is not a population base to really accomplish it.

Also the legislature is Democratic so the GOP won't have a domination of the process if Martinez wins (and I think she is going to). The interesting thing to look at is what happens if both Heinrich and Lujan win (likely) and Jeff Bingaman a 5 term Senator retires in 2012. Both would likely angle for the seat.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
What is Denish doing...
To turn this around? What is her field program? What are her ads? I'm still wondering why she fell behind and why she hasn't caught up yet?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


I think it's:
Bad economy, anti-incumbent year, Latino opponent, and connection to Richardson, who's become unpopular.

[ Parent ]
Bill Richardson
His corruption allegations have dragged him down considerably. Basically he gave high profile contracts to major donors. She has always aligned herself with him and once this news broke and Martinez emerged as a legimiate candidate her chances of winning dropped.

Susanna is an elected DA from Las Cruces (2nd largest city in the state) and typically a light blue city so she has experience being elected. Richardson's saga in a nutshell is below.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01...

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]

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