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LA-02: Richmond Leads Cao by 11

by: James L.

Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 7:27 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling for the Daily Kos (10/2-3, likely voters, no trend lines):

Cedric Richmond (D): 49
Joe Cao (R-inc): 38
Undecied: 13
(MoE: ±4%)

Joe Cao wins 22% of Democrats, 21% of Obama voters, wins independents 52-30, wins whites by 65-24, and has a 50-29 favorable rating. In a less Democratic district, that might be enough to survive this year, but this truly looks like a fridge too far for any Republican.

Bonus finding: Charlie Melancon leads David Vitter by 65-28 in the Senate race portion of the poll.
James L. :: LA-02: Richmond Leads Cao by 11
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LA-02: Richmond Leads Cao by 11 | 40 comments
Is "a fridge too far" a Simpsons refrence?


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Where
did they find all that money Bill Jefferson had again?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Facepalm
This is one of the very few times I thought a political reference was a pop culture one: it's usually the otherway around.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I like both theories
This was really just a Simpsons reference that actually fits the contours of this race like a glove!
[ Parent ]
I'm writing Jefferson's biography just to use that as a title


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Though in my defense Jefferson's money was in his freezer


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
A Freezer Too Far!
I know it doesn't really fit with fridge/bridge, but I still like it.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I never understand liberal voting behavior
In here Cao is getting 15% of liberals and Vitter is getting 11. Why would anybody who goes so far as to call himself a liberal in   Louisiana consider voting for Vitter, much less 11%? Only really dedicated people who strongly believe in their Ideology call themselves liberal especially in such a red state.
A few guesses
Some are so bitter about no public option and other stuff they're just voting R to stick it to Obama.  Some may just really not like Melancon.  Some may be moderates or conservatives who pushed the wrong button.  These liberal Vitter voters are so small it's hard to conclude anything about them.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
The margin of error
On the liberal sample is probably huge. That was only like 10% of the sample.  
[ Parent ]
It was 20%, which is probably low. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Is it?
From way back, I think Tom Jensen actually pointed out anecdotal polling evidence that black voters are actually a lot more likely to call themselves "moderate" than "liberal".

I wish I could find where Jensen said that (of course it was also in regards to North Carolina, so I don't want to be too presumptuous on that end either).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Perhaps, but a district that voted 75% for Obama should have...
...more than just 20% who are liberal, even with lower center-left turnout in the ensuing midterm.  It's not just Obama with a largely black electorate, every Democratic Presidential nominee always wins a laughably large blowout here.

The national breakdown is normally in the ballpark of 45M-35C-20L in exit polls, and that's in an evenly-matched Presidential election where the winner never exceeds 54% which has been the case in my adult life.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Doesn't make 'em liberal.
For instance, if you were to poll their views on abortion and gay rights, I'm not sure you'd find their beliefs to be, ah, "liberal".  This is still Louisiana, which was the 2nd most pro-life state as of 2005.  Now that poll was done just two weeks before Katrina hit, and I don't think those that stayed behind were necessarily more liberal than those that left/died.
[ Parent ]
I think you have the Senate race backwards...
And Obama just cut an ad for Richmond to take away any Obama voter Cao support.
The senate numbers are fine
In NOLA Melancon should be leading by a lot.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
?
It would be pretty weird for Vitter to be crushing Melancon in LA-02...
[ Parent ]
He isn't winning
65-28 statewide either.
[ Parent ]
Bad sign for Cao
His minimum needed among whites is 70%, but he really needs to be higher than that to have a prayer. He is at 64%. This poll does show how much African American turnout drops off in midterms though. African Americans make up only 51% of this sample, with 41% white.  
Cao
needed a black 3rd party candidate to pull this off.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Yep
And the only one with a profile to pull it off and the money dropped out a few weeks ago. I think there may still be one, but he is very minor, in addition to a white conservative 3rd party candidate.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
There was too much of it to fit in his ice tray.
In reply to Darth Jeff.

[ Parent ]
Kind of ironic that was the one thing he didn't get convicted on


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
This is one seat where I think the anti-Democratic might be hurting the Republican......
Cao's best bet ironically was for the Democratic majority to be safe.  THEN a lot more Democrats might feel "safe" voting for him, that there was no urgency in returning the seat to Democratic hands.  But with the majority in jeopardy, Democrats are circling the wagons, and Cao is on the outside looking in.

Even in that scenario Cao probably would be a goner, but at least there would be an argument that Democrats don't need the seat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

That works both ways
If the majority was safe, the DCCC would have a lot more money to spend here.  
[ Parent ]
Very true. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Cao's best option would be to go VERY negative on Richmond
I understand that Richmond has some ethics issues as well.

I'm kind of surprised Cao hasnt made this more of an issue.

I believe Richmond has his law license revoked for campaign voter residency fraud, has a few assault charges leveled against him and was involved with a shady charity.

Cao needs to win independence by a bigger than 52 to 30 margin to off set Dem registration advantage. Only way to do that would be to drive up Richmond's negatives by painting him as scandal plagued.

If Richmond can hold Cao to only 22% of Dems and win 30% of independents I think he can win.

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He CAN win?
For Cao to win, he'd have to win 30% of Democrats, if Richmond wins 78% of Democrats, Cao would have to win Independents and Republicans unanimously in order for him to win.

This poll is even worse for Cao than it seems, the undecideds in this race are Democratic, black, liberal/moderate, and Obama voters, meaning that they should break for Richmond, I have a hard time seeing Cao doing any better than a 15 point loss (which is still really good for a Republican in New Orleans).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Cao seems KO, I glad (of can add a new house seat to the democratic gains)

When the democrats begin to work seriously finding a strong candidate and giving him the means for fight, Cao begin to have big troubles.

This is the poll of the confirmation about Richmond lead. You can be right about the 15 points.

[ Parent ]
He is starting to
I was actually wondering if Cao would go negative, since its not his style, but it sounds like he will: http://www.foxnews.com/politic...
Good insight into his strategy against Richmond in the coming weeks.
[ Parent ]
SHOCKED!
Obama endorsed the democrat? I AM SHOCKED I TELLS YA! SHOCKED!!!!

Quick get me the RED PHONE! I must dial the President and tell him the Dem has been accused of ethical impropriety! This is an emergency, I am a CONGRESSMAN!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Cao is either a dumbass in reality or in political tactics, because...
...he never supported Obama on the major legislation passed in the 111th, and that's what he had to do to have ANY chance at reelection.  If he wanted Obama's support, he would have voted yes on everything and told Boehner and Cantor to go to hell.

That the GOP demands as much purity as they do is why they're doomed as a long-term minority, no matter what happens short-term in this election.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
He supported HCR
Thats a major part of Obama's legislative agenda I'd say. Some of the things he did not support Obama on, like Cap and Trade, he wanted to, but he did not because it was not popular in the district. Cao is actually a very strong environmentalist who was a big fan of the Cap and Trade bill.
[ Parent ]
No he did NOT. He voted NO on the final bill and the reconciliation bill, which is...
...what REALLY mattered.  The "yes" on the House bill is meaningless, what mattered was the final two votes.

Cao otherwise voted with his party on almost everything, save maybe the occasional thing like Lilly Ledbetter.

He is very immature to complain about Obama endorsing Richmond.  If he wanted Obama to stay out, he should have voted with Democrats on the floor on all the major stuff.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If Cao lose in Nov what would local LA races look like for him
GOPVOTER, you seem to know LA politics real well. If Cao loses in Nov would there be any local State Legislature race he could run for in 2011?

I would imagine during redistricting that it could be quite easy to draw a state legislature seat for him in N.O. with a Vietnamese majority.

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[ Parent ]
Yes
I think, if he wanted to stay in politics, that is his natural course. He actually ran for the state house in 2007 as an independent and finished 5th out of 6 with 15%. It is actually a competitive district. The Democrat that won the run-off in that district only won with 52% against a Republican. I think now if Cao ran with his name rec after losing, he would win easily. I would also expect the local and state Republican party to heavily recruit him if they are serious about gaining a majority in the house. State Senate would be less likely. I am not sure which Senate district he lives in, but there are 2 that overlap with his state house district. One is represented by a popular Republican incumbent and the other is one that just elected a very well known, very popular Democrat on Saturday with over 60% of the vote even though her opponent outspent her heavily and picked up many endorsements. She would be a very tough opponent for him to beat.  
[ Parent ]
If only this would be the ONLY district in Louisiana))))

Thank Goodness
Thank goodness the Dems are going to be able to pick up a few seats to offset the pending loses.  Any recent polls on PA-06 and IL-10?
I think the last IL-10 was
The DCCC poll that had Seals up 49-36. A month old now but no GOP relpy is telling.
[ Parent ]
LA-02: Richmond Leads Cao by 11 | 40 comments

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