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Poll Roundup: Dirty Dozen Edition

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 10:32 AM EDT


A fire hose blast of recent polls from around the nation...

GA-Gov, Sen: Insider Advantage (9/27, likely voters, 8/18 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 37 (41)
Nathan Deal (R): 45 (45)
John Monds (L): 5 (5)
Undecided: 13 (9)

Michael Thurmond (D): 29 (34)
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 61 (52)
Chuck Donovan (L): 3 (5)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±5%)

NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02 (PDF): UNH for WMUR (9/23-29, likely voters, July in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (37)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (45)
Other: 2 (1)
Undecided: 12 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 39 (44)
Frank Guinta (R): 49 (39)
Other: 3 (1)
Undecided: 9 (16)
(MoE: ±6%)

Ann McLane Kuster (D): 38 (29)
Charlie Bass (R): 43 (47)
Other: 3 (1)
Undecided: 16 (23)
(MoE: ±6.1%)

AZ-07: American Political Consulting (R) for Ruth McClung (9/25-26, voter screen unspecified, no trendlines):

Raul Grijalva (D-inc): 42
Ruth McClung (R): 35
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4.3%)

CT-04: National Research (R) for Dan Debicella (9/27-28, likely voters, 8/17-18 in parens):

Jim Himes (D-inc): 42 (42)
Dan Debicella (R): 42 (38)
(MoE: ±5.7%)

NJ-03 (PDF): Monmouth (9/24-28, likely voters, no trendlines)

John Adler (D-inc): 42
Jon Runyan (R): 39
Pete DeStefano (T): 4
Other: 2
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-13: Global Strategy Group (D) for Rep. Mike McMahon (9/19-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 51
Mike Grimm: 33
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Barry Zeplowitz & Associates (R) for the NRCC (9/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 46
Mike Grimm: 38
(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01, RI-02: Fleming & Associates for WPRI-TV & WNAC-TV (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

David Cicilline (D): 48
John Loughlin (R): 29
Undecided: 22

Jim Langevin (D-inc): 54
Mark Zaccaria (R): 24
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6.2%)

VA-09: SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV (9/27-29, likely voters, 8/31-9/2 in parens):

Rick Boucher (D-inc): 53 (50)
Morgan Griffith (R): 38 (40)
Jeremiah Heaton (I): 5 (5)
Undecided: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4%)
DavidNYC :: Poll Roundup: Dirty Dozen Edition
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Poll Roundup: Dirty Dozen Edition | 43 comments
This is about the third poll
showing Cicilline up by 20 or so.  Charlie Cook felt the need downgrade the race to Lean Dem though, so we know these polls (which constitute all of the polls in the race AFAIK) are way off and Charlie's punditry is way on.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Charlie claims he has inside knowledge

My view is that most academic polling, as well as the polling sponsored by local television stations and newspapers, is dime-store junk.

The far more sophisticated polling is done by top-notch professional polling firms for campaigns, parties and major business and labor organizations. These polls are considerably more expensive and the methodology is more rigorous.

Most of these surveys are not made public, but insiders can be made aware of them.

http://www.nationaljournal.com...

[ Parent ]
I doubt if he does on this particular race.
What he did was took basically every open seat race and moved them towards the Republicans about a week ago.  One size doesn't fit all.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
No, one size doesn't fit all...
And IMHO it's ridiculous to move all open seats one way because of some supposed "wave".  It's as if all the DC pundits keep talking each other into believing it.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
We'll see
I can't imagine the GOP winning this seat - the didn't win it in 1994 when it was open and the state's only gotten more blue since then, but I don't discount Charlie Cook's connections.  He has quite the reputation in DC and isn't going to make calls that he doesn't feel have a good basis in fact because this is how the guy makes his living.  If it's a blowout at the end of the day, then he loses a bit of his value.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Oh he does though.
He openly admitted that he moved PA-12 to Lean R just before election day on a hunch, and in spite of polling evidence to the contrary.  He was just feelin' the Republican wave.  I have a feeling that was what happened on RI-01.  He's just feelin' the wave again.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Their latest race ratings changes have cost them some respect with me because...
...they were so out of date.

Just days ago they moved ME-Gov and MD-Gov to tossup from lean D.

I didn't realize they still had them at lean D until Jennifer Duffy's tweet about the move to tossup.

Those 2 were tossup a LOOOOOOOONG time ago.

And ME-Gov never looked like lean D except for the state's natural lean, which was offset this year by political environment.  And in fact ME-Gov had objectively gone from tossup to lean R and now MAYBE back to tossup FROM LEAN R.

MD-Gov if anything lately has been moving back FROM tossup to lean D.  The move from lean D to tossup should've been made in the late spring/early summer.

It's not helpful for the analysts to be so slow in their changes.  Just make the changes in REAL TIME as evidence warrants, and you can change it further later as evidence further warrants.  There's no prize for waiting to make a change.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Their tossup category is too broad
Like anything within ten points. Which is far too conservative for my tastes.
[ Parent ]
RI-01 voter here...
Admittedly I haven't been able to get much of a read on the district (I was home for three weeks in August and the last time before that was March), but I haven't heard anything about John Loughlin (who is a state rep but might as well be a Some Dude) doing better than expected. He's too conservative for Rhode Island, especially the more Democratic of our two districts. I have a feeling that if Loughlin were really making this competitive I'd be hearing something, but it sounds like RI is as Democratic as ever, meaning all those polls showing Cicilline up big are credible.

(Caveat: I am from the most liberal part of the district...but of course I do know some people from other parts!)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Hodes, WTF?
Is this bad campaigning, "not our year" or what?
More the latter IMO
But he ain't a great campaigner either.
[ Parent ]
Kuster outperforming Hodes in his own district?
CD1: Ayotte 50, Hodes 35
CD2: Ayotte 51, Hodes 35

Also from the Senate crosstabs, Democrats for Hodes only 70/17.  Ouch.  Independents for Ayotte, 41/30, Republicans for Ayotte 87/6.

Statewide favorability: Ayotte 41/29, Hodes 29/39
CD2: Bass 36/34, Kuster 38/14, Ayotte 40/29, Hodes 33/38

Looks like the CoC campaign to soften Hodes up might have had its desired effect.

[ Parent ]
Kuster has more than a good shot here

[ Parent ]
Crappy poll
Democrats outnumber Republicans in NH, but this poll gives Republicans a 6-point registration advantage (BEFORE applying their further-tilting likely-voter model). The 18-34 demographic in NH makes up 12%-14% of the electorate normally. This poll assumes they make up 8% (and explicitly throws out 10 of their 48 responses from that demographic). This poll claims that union households are supporting Republicans this year MORE strongly than non-union households (and claims that union-busting Frank Guinta leads Carol Shea-Porter by 21 among union households, but only 8 among non-union households).

This poll was in the field for a full week, but only managed to get 514 total respondents (of whom 472 were judged 'likely' - including ones who said they 'were not interested' in the race). It was landlines only, missing the increasingly large percentage of cellphone-only voters. It suggested that in the 2nd, the Bass/Kuster race, men would outnumber women 55/45. The MoE is 4.5%, and a sky-high 6.0% for their congressional races.

It's got crummy methodology, a sample population that doesn't match state demographics, and massive margins of error. Hodes probably is still trailing as he has most of the cycle, but this poll is worthless.

[ Parent ]
Good catches and observations, those are real problems with the poll. But the problem for us is...
...even if you correct for those things, the 15-point margin wouldn't be erased or likely even close to it.

I think Hodes trails likely by mid-to-high single-digits.  And he probably doesn't have a path to victory without something unexpected intervening to get him over the top, a la Whitman's immigrant housekeeper controversy or Ganley's sexual assault suit.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Look at little Ricky Boucher!
in his R+11 district. This sumb*tch needs to give some lessons to some swing district dems
What's happening in NH?
Is Hodes really this much FAIL? Is Ayotte really that good? I don't get it.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
Independents

[ Parent ]
Libertarian indies
I think of NH, the "live free or die" state, as the home of the libertarian independent,

perhaps the ground zero target of the Tea Party (as long as they stay away from social issues).

[ Parent ]
I, as a rule don't put much faith into UNH polls
I mean, they have kinda been screwy all cycle.  The fact that Hodes is stuck in the 30's in this UNH Poll while he is quite competitive with other pollsters is telling.

I honestly think he will pull it out in the end.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Ayotte has been ahead
in the past 23 consecutive polls, and Hodes hasn't gotten above the low 40s in any poll all cycle.

Given that, what's your basis for predicting a Hodes win?

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
DartCon
Dartmouth and Conservative, oh dear.

Oh the Places We'll Go with Ayotte!

(Inside Joke)

This will tighten, certainly, it'll be interesting to see Hodes' negative attacks on Ayotte going forward.

[ Parent ]
I'm mainly banking on PPP's polling to be correct
Mainly due to the fact that they are pretty damn good pollsters.

Some forget the "Bluening" of the country that has taken place over the last 6 years, and while it has effected some areas less than others, the North East in particular, has been hit very hard by it.  Remember when MA had some republican congressmen?

I just have a hard time believing that John Lynch is looking like he has a lock on his race while Paul hodes, a congressmen that was elected by half of the state, and has no glaring negatives, is going to lose to an attorney general who was appointed to the position, and has minor ethical problems.

As we have seen, polls are tightening up, and I suspect that when it comes closer to election time, this one will as well.

Also, I think Hodes has some fantastic advertisements

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
And the Sarah Palin endorsement. That won't play well in NH.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Well, Cook just moved NH-Gov to Tossup
I don't agree, but as Cook subtly reminds us, he is privy to juicy internal polls.

I hope that NH-Sen will tighten, but the Pollster regression lines are pretty flat and Hodes will have to make something happen.  I still rank it below KY, second on our short list of pickup opportunities.

[ Parent ]
I have no doubt
that the polls will tighten, but most pollsters show a deficit for Hodes that's almost insurmountable. Don't take my word for it: according to Nate Silver, Senate candidates who are averaging 9-12 point leads in the polls are undefeated since 1998. Ayotte currently averages a 10 point lead.

I take issue with your point about Lynch. Governor Lynch is very well liked and personally popular. But his popularity has less to do with policy and more to do with his inoffensive, consensus-building approach to governing. Hodes has been considerably more partisan and is less well liked. Remember, even last year as Lynch cruised to re-election with ~70%, Shaheen only got to 52%. NH voters aren't afraid to split their tickets. I'm predicting a Lynch win with about 55% next month, in which case his coattails certainly can't pull Hodes along.

Plus I just don't think Hodes' attacks will stick. Based on what I've seen from Ayotte, both in person and on television, she's very likable. She projects a sort of uncomfortableness or awkwardness in front of the camera (and in front of crowds), but her awkwardness is endearing because it's easy to relate to. It's similar to what someone mentioned about Rep. Djou in a recent thread.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
I look at that 2008 HN Senate race differently
You forget, there were multiple sitting republican senators (NH, MN, OR) where there was nothing "wrong" with them except that they were republicans, and lost due to the huge Obama turnout and it being a huge democratic wave.  

While I won't go as far as to say that Smith, Sununu and Coleman were well liked, if they ran in any other year, where there was no enthusiasm gap on either side, or a strong presidential ticket for either side, I would say that those three would have been easily re-elected.  That isn't what happened in 2008.  It was the perfect wave of high turnout, enthusiastic democratic base AND depressed conservative turnout due to McCain looking like he was sure to lose a few weeks before election day.  All these factors pushed Smith, Sununu and Coleman out.

Ayotte isn't an entrenched republican in a Blue state like the three people I mentioned above, this is an open seat, and find that the dynamics I mentioned above don't apply.

This is primarily why I see that Lynch didn't help Shaheen as much as he could have.

Just a side note, while Cook may NH-sen as a toss-up, I don't really give much credence to his predictions.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Entrenched?
Sununu and Coleman were both freshmen who barely won their first election bids and were always seen as being pretty vulnerable (and Sununu from the very start had a very credible challenger).

You're right about Smith though.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
"Depressed conservative turnout" is a myth......
McCain won the third-most votes of any Presidential candidate in history, behind Obama '08 and Bush '04.  He won 900,000 more votes than Kerry.  And before after the 2004 election everyone agreed that Democratic turnout would be/was sky-high in 2004, super-motivated.  Dubya just found more votes for himself than anyone thought possible.  But somehow, McCain gets almost a million more votes than Kerry but his turnout was "depressed."

Conservative turnout was very high in 2008.  Just like Democratic turnout was very high in 2004.  In both cases, it just proved not to be enough.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Currently wearing an 18" wide tie...
Since all trends continue forever.  Likewise, those of us predicting that candidates that have never led in a single poll will lose are  forgetting the "Iron Law of Democratic Gains."

On the contrary, it seems that just as something is treated as settled CW, people are blindsided by new developments.    

[ Parent ]
10
I feel like every time we get a few days of good polls, the pendelum comes right back and smacks up with some horrible ones.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Where have you been?
It's been that way for the last eight months!
[ Parent ]
Grijalva
The mustache caucus is in trouble? Quick SSPer's, donate to save our 'staches!!!!!

16, Male, MD-8.
Not likely
This isn't even on Charlie "Boxer no better than 50/50" Cook's radar.  Your money is much better spent elsewhere.
[ Parent ]
Well
He's not facing an open white-supremacist this time around, so his margins are going to be somewhat smaller. I might be slightly worried if McClung could actually manage to raise money (which you think would be easy, given the extent to which Grijalva is loathed by right-wingers for the boycott thing). At the end of the day, Grijalva is a skilled politician with great constituent services. His loud and proud progressivism is going to piss off some White conservatives in Yuma and Pinal counties, but Southside/Westside Tucson and Nogales more than balance that out.

Iif this poll is what all the "McClung is almost tied with Grijalva!!!1" fuss was about, I feel better.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
there's also ..
http://www.surveyusa.com/elect...

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

WA-2: Larsen 50 - Koster 47

OH-1: Chabot 53 - Driehaus 41 (interesting tidbit here is among those who already voted it's Driehaus 53 - Chabot 45, but it's a very small sample)

OH-1
SUSA's margin is down from 56-39 Chabot in January.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/po...

And typical of SUSA, nearly 1 in 5 AAs supporting Chabot.

[ Parent ]
NM-Gov
Martinez above 50 with a double-digit lead.
51-41
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Electoral-vote.com claims a CA-44 poll with Hedrick beating Calvert
49-38.  It says it's from PPP.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
That margin looks familiar
and I believe they're just reversed the names, with the actual lead belonging to Calvert.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I thought it was the other way around
Calvert beating Hedrick 49-38.
[ Parent ]
Never mind
He got his numbers switched.  Hedrick's own campaign website confirms that.

Sorry to get your hopes up.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The Votemaster
Is surprisingly sloppy.

Anyhow, we reported that poll, with the correct top lines, on Tuesday.

[ Parent ]
Poll Roundup: Dirty Dozen Edition | 43 comments

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