Has Mitchell put either into ads yet?

"Is this the person Maine wants to lead it's Government?"    

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by: Roscoe @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 15:32:33 PM UTC

Is it just me

Or have several races started to trend in our direction the last week? I understand that there is a case of shooting oneself in the head in this race, but still. Nv-sen, il-sen, pe-gov, ca-sen, ca-gov +++ are trending in the right direction. Or am i just picking up the things i want to see?

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by: Ectoras @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 15:38:42 PM UTC

Mixed bag IMO

The whack-a-mole analogy is very apt.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 15:43:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think so, I think there is a modest but definite trend our way......

The great majority of campaign news since Labor Day, not just the past week, has been good for us.  Yes Manchin and Blumenthal struggling has been bad news, but I feel like we get good news in 2 races for every 1 race with bad news.

Yeah it's whack-a-mole, but we're knocking down the moles just a little bit faster than new ones are popping up.

And I don't think we're done rallying yet.  I think there's still potential for rallying in October.  Of course, we could fall apart in October, too, and have armageddon on election day after all.  But for now the trend looks better.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 15:58:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

House races are better

Generic ballot certainly tighter. But for every Senate or gubernatorial race that looks better another looks worse.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 16:44:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I feel the same way

It seems to me that things are equilibrating, that both sides are losing their outlier hopes but consolidating in their stronghold regions.  McAdam isn't going to win in Alaska, Whitman isn't going to win in California.  Barnes isn't going to win in Georgia or Palladino in New York.

That leaves normal partisan cycles in swing areas (FL and PA governor offices) and the prevailing of long term trends, e.g. D's holding on to House seats in Arizona and R's gaining in Arkansas and West Virginia.

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by: Baystater @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 17:11:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're sure Barnes isn't going to win?

Is Georgia so right-wing now that they'd vote for a Republican who's under investigation for alleged crimes?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 01:28:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yes, you're right

There's nationwide behavior that looks like that of New Jersey in a regular year.  I.e. the general tiredness with the mixed bag of D incumbents, many of them intolerable and useless, during spring and summer.  Then the moderates flirting with support for the R nominees or staying at home on Election Day.  And then the slow drifting back to the D's during the fall as the R nominees demonstrate that they frankly don't care a whit about the political center's real interests.

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by: Baystater @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 16:58:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Best news I've had all week

Libby Mitchell would be a fantastic Governor.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 15:41:44 PM UTC

Enraged LePage

We've set up a Facebook page that hosts all of LePage's meltdowns in front of video cameras right here, if anyone's missed any: http://www.Facebook.com/EnragedLePage

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by: EnragedLePage @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 15:48:55 PM UTC

Seems to be more LaPage meltdown

then Mitchell's upturn. Good, because LaPage is far-right Republican. I like moderate Republicans and could easily imagine supporting (financially) Mills or even Otten, but, surely, not LePage.

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 15:53:49 PM UTC

I'm really still not sold on this Critical Insights firm at all

They had some truly strange numbers out in PA, and their definition of a likely voter is pretty loose, if I recall (voter claims to have voted in 2008 and says they'll likely vote this year; I thought most pollsters did it based on consecutive voting patterns or history of voting in midterms). And they seem only to poll for small local newspapers, leading me to believe they're a bargain-basement pollster.

I dunno. This could be accurate, but I'm skeptical until I see corroboration.

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by: MIJunkie @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 18:59:46 PM UTC

I mostly agree, I have a rule of thumb that says...

...don't trust dramatic change in a race by just ONE poll that's not yet corroborated by others.

I made an exception for MD-Gov this week when the WaPo poll came out showing O'Malley up 11; they had it a 47-47 tie in their previous poll in the spring.  WaPo is the gold standard for MD/DC/VA election polling, so I trust them.  They have the occasional outlier like everyone, but they're good enough that I trust O'Malley is creating space for real.

Beyond that type of rare exception, totality of polling remains the rule, and I'll believe ME-Gov has changed that much when someone else, too, says so.

But it is yet one more data point that shows the crazier GOP nominees are getting in trouble, as valid as any other single poll.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 19:55:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

for this race, this is the second poll

the poll of the confirmation :)

I glad :)

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by: abgin @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 22:44:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]