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DE-Sen: Castle Won't Pursue Write-In Campaign

by: James L.

Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 10:35 PM EDT


It's all over now, baby blue:

Longtime Republican congressman Mike Castle has ruled out a write-in campaign in the U.S. Senate race in Delaware.

Castle is also a former two-term governor and the longest serving congressman in state history. He lost the GOP primary earlier this month in a stunning upset to tea party favorite Christine O'Donnell.

He issued a statement Wednesday night saying he had ruled out a write-in campaign, which many supporters had asked him to consider.

Still, of course, no O'Donnell endorsement.
James L. :: DE-Sen: Castle Won't Pursue Write-In Campaign
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DE-Sen: Castle Won't Pursue Write-In Campaign | 35 comments
Say goodbye to DE-Sen, NRSC...
Enjoy all that O'Donnell teanuttery!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
It was over either way, Coons had it in the bag with a 2-way or 3-way. Castle merely would have...
...made it a more entertaining spectacle, like FL-Sen and AK-Sen have become.

But Coons was a lock either way.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Coons still would have had the edge...
In a 3-way, but it could have possibly given O'Donnell an opening. But without a doubt, this slams the door shut and DE-Sen is looking much more like a slam dunk for Team Blue.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
It only gave O'Donnell an opening if you accept the premise that...
Castle was more likely to take Coons's voters away from him than from O'Donnell, and by a lot. It doesn't pass the smell test, Castle isn't a Democrat, he never has been and he's never pretended to be one. His own voting record is actually a lot less ambiguous than people think, for example, can you think of any major piece of legislation in which all votes were critical that he didn't vote with Republicans on?

Castle's base was always with right-of-center voters not left-of-center voters, and there's no reason to believe that Democrats would, in large numbers, vote for Castle over Coons but few Republicans would vote for Castle over O'Donnell and that's the real flaw of a lot of these arguments.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Cap n Trade was definitely a piece of legislation where every vote counted.
In retrospect, it's really shocking that we got even eight votes from the GOP on that bill.  We got ZERO votes for the stimulus a few months prior, and if Dems had held the vote in summer 2010, we'd have got zero votes on cap and trade too.  But Tea Party August hadn't happened yet...

Anyway, we got votes from Castle, Kirk, Reichert, Bono Mack, McHugh, LoBiondo, Leonard Lance, and Chris Smith on cap and trade.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
But not on much else, plus I'd add that Cap and Trade ultimately died in the Senate, so one might argue that it was a useless gesture (whether Castle predicted that it would go that way or not is anyone's guess).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Useless gesture is right...
and I'd imagine that every single one of those Republicans wish they could take that vote back. It could make things difficult for them, especially Reichert in WA. Will he get outsized tea party support? I'm not so sure.
[ Parent ]
it was not a useless "jesture"
that implies its impact was neutral or negligable.  instead it probably hurt a lot of dems (or at least continued the "oh noes, govt is going to control your livesss!!11!1!" meme).  it was a bad move.  IF it had passed the senate first, then yes, they could and should have pushed it in the house, but they didn't.  they jumped the weak hurdle 1st and hoped they could jump the next.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
useless should have been in quotes
not gesture, which was spelled with a g.  typed too fast.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree...
I think from a political standpoint, the Senate should have gone first, or the House should have waited until it was obvious there was real momentum behind it in the other chamber.

My point is that the Republicans who supported it REALLY took a leap when they didn't need to. They didn't even have party pressure coming down on them.

Having said that, I'm speaking strictly politically here. There are other reasons to support a bill, such as principle, conviction, and doing the right thing!

[ Parent ]
Of course, Kirk flip-flopped on cap & trade when he decided to run for Senate.

[ Parent ]
Kirk could probably flip back
In order for him to survive in Illinois, he will need to support cap and trade. The state is just to blue for him to oppose it for a extended period of time  
[ Parent ]
Regardless of reality...
Perception can often cloud judgment in politics.

Even though Castle's record wasn't all that "moderate", he had enough of that "moderate aura" to survive Delaware politics for so many decades... Even as DE became more of a reliable Blue State!

So without a doubt, Castle could have pulled away some Independents and moderate Democrats who would otherwise vote Coons over O'Donnell. Again, it probably wouldn't have cost Coons the election, but it could have given O'Donnell a narrow opening.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
He got 5% in Rasmussen, and that's about right, a trivial share of votes......
I've said it several times and I'll say it again, Castle has no organic personal following.  He's a politically smart politician who knew how to survive in an increasingly tough state for his party, that is not the same as being beloved.

Voters were not going to follow him in any substantial share into a write-in campaign.  Aggravating his problem would have been the obvious reality that he was a throwaway vote, no different than voting Libertarian.  Coons instantly shot up over 50% in a 2-way vs. O'Donnell after the primary, not many of them were going to abandon him at THAT point for a pointless Castle write-in.

And I'm sure his own poll that he paid for showed the same.  He was pretty quick to drop this idea, and I'm confident his numbers weren't too far off from Rasmussen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
there are plenty of moderates though
Who would vote Coons in a two-way but switch to Castle in a three-way if they know to write in his name.
[ Parent ]
I think he'd rather end his career with some dignity
And he very likely would not want to give O'Donnell any sort of an opening.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
I know I've said this about a million times but
I don't think it would've mattered if Castle had done a write-in campaign or not, this was always Coons's race to win, and it's insane that so many people have assumed that Castle was going to somehow play spoiler in O'Donnell's favor.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

i dont think people 100% assumed that
But rather left the possibilty open for it.  A lot of things can happen in a three-way, especially when you've got a tea-bagger involved.
[ Parent ]
He would have been
Lt. Gov, Gov, Rep and Sen (I think there are about five others that claim that distinction now, coming from 220 years.)
I think he could've played spoiler
And here's why: IMO In a typical DE race, after you account for dyed in the wool Democrats and Republicans Democrats have a roughly 4 point lead with about a 20% group of true Independents, and moderate Democrats and Republicans.

In a Castle-Coons race, Castle would've dominated this group en route to a low double digits victory. Now, Coons will dominate this group en route to a mid double digits victory.

Had Castle pursued the write-in campaign, maybe just maybe he takes virtually all of that 20% group that will go to Coons and O'Donnell ekes out a victory.

It's not likely, in fact basically everything would have to go against us for it to happen but there was a path to victory for O'Donnell however slim it was. Now, were in dead girl live boy territory for O'Donnell

In O'Donnell's case, dead boy or live girl
Or, more fittingly, a disembodied hand.

But even taking your divisions of the electorate for granted, answer me this:  How many "true Independents, and moderate Democrats and Republicans" are going to vote for Christine O'Donnell after all of her dirty laundry gets aired?

[crickets]

Under your model, even if Coons got zero votes from that group, O'Donnell would have to get over 20% of them to take the lead.

Safe D then, Safe D now.

[ Parent ]
Dead Boy!
Avada Kedavra!


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
or a witch

[ Parent ]
Castle was NEVER going to do that well, he was getting 5%, and I'm sure his own poll showed the same......
That's where Rasmussen pegged him, and in this instance Rasmussen got it right.

Castle has no organic personal following, he's just an establishment Republican who played smart politics for his own public image in the state.  He has no substantial support that would follow him to a write-in, especially when it was guaranteed he couldn't win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
RE: ] It was over either way, Coons had it in the bag with a 2-way or 3-way.
I am not sure that this was true in a 2 way race, Castle was VERY popular in DE, a "moderate" R in a state that likes moderation.  I think that Coons could have won a 2 person race, but he really  would have had to work for it.

How is the birth of an elephant the same as today's Republican party:  It is accompanied by a great deal of roaring and screaming, and it takes 2 years to produce results.
You misunderstand, I mean a 2-way vs. O'Donnell, NOT vs. Castle. I don't argue at all...
...that Castle was, indeed, a prohibitive favorite in a 2-way, it would have been a MAJOR upset for Coons to beat him in that scenario.

I'm talking about post-primary, with O'Donnell the GOP nominee.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't want to jinx the race
This year I'm very reluctant to call a race over if it doesn't have Hoeven-Potter numbers.  So I don't want to say that Coons has it in the bag just yet.  Let's cross our fingers that O'Donnell won't surge McMahan/Brady style.
Go Coons.
Hoeven and Scozzafava
ND-Sen.  If only....If the ND primary was held at a much later time, maybe a teabagger would've arisen in ND and sunk Hoeven in the primary.  Had that happened, and had Halter won in AR, then there would've been no Dem senate seat that would've been a guaranteed flip.

I guess now we won't talk about being "Scozzafava'ed" anymore.  Now we'll talk about being "Castle'd".

Well, is Maes Scozzafava'ed or Castle'ed by Tankredo?
Or - what?)))
[ Parent ]
No
I don't think Tancredo's running because he thinks Maes is too left wing. :-)

Instead I'd say that Maes has O'Donnelled the Co-GOP:  stormed in to take the nomination and turned it into a surefire loser.  Then again, maybe O'Donnell has Maesed the De-GOP.  Or maybe both candidates Alvin-Greened their GOP's. :-)

[ Parent ]
Halter would be down double-digits right now......
Halter polled only slightly better than Lincoln vs. Boozman pre-primary, and there's no reason to think he wouldn't be down double-digits now, too.  Halter was always overhyped by Lincoln haters.  I, too, favored him over Lincoln, but only mildly, on the basis that he was worth a flyer as a fresh face with Lincoln clearly having zero chance at reelection.

But the way the year has developed, there's no reason to think Halter would be competitive now.  White Arkansans desperately want to put into the record their hostility toward Obama, and their federal races are their perfect vehicle for doing exactly that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Even Beebe would be struggling
See Manchin.
[ Parent ]
Yup, EXACTLY! And in fact PPP showed EXACTLY that in February......
PPP tested Beebe as the Senate nominee in February and found him TRAILING BY A POINT, 44-43, to Boozman.  The same sample gave Beebe a 59-22 job approval.  Even against Gilbert Baker, Beebe's lead was only 46-38.  Mike Ross trailed Boozman by 11 in the same survey, and Ross was only tied with Baker.

Arkansas voters want to punish Obama and Congressional Democrats this fall, there's no way around it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
and what makes it palatable
Is that AR was bound to start electing more Republicans to Congress.  Blah blah blah the Dems dominate at the local level; whatever.  But these Dems don't resemble national Dems and I think giving us the finger was bound to happen.

Would have been nice nonetheless if they weren't open seats and we were able to keep them.

[ Parent ]
White Southerners

seem, more generally, to be quite finished with the whole conservative Democrat thang.
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Castle Won't Pursue Write-In Campaign | 35 comments

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