DeStefano

DeStefano isn't affiliated with any Tea Party group, and they have all disowned him.  Apparently no one in any conservative or Republican group in South Jersey had ever heard of him before.  Runyan has accused him of being an Adler plant!  That would be a problem (if it were true) if the plant causes him to lose the election!

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by: patlak @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 19:55:26 PM UTC

I'm

I'm an Eagle fan - I might even root for Runyan even if he was a Democrat!  Really, this comes down to the size of the wave.  A small one doesn't reach Adler.  Anything above a mid-sized one washes Runyan into office.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 20:05:19 PM UTC

Wow

This was nowhere near the top of my list of potential pickups--I thought Runyan was an ill-advised substitute for a "real" candidate who could give Adler a good run.

There was the Zogby poll from earlier this week that showed Adler up 38-30--I take it it never made the front page because Zogby is persona non grata around here?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 20:19:32 PM UTC

A Republican not up now probably won't win.

And this is a race in which candidates and campaigning matters, and Runyan just hasn't been impressive.

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by: Adam B. @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 20:37:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's why I had it so low

Runyan has yet to impress me, but if Adler's only at 41% in independent polling, the race is up for grabs.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 20:56:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's not clear

If in the end, there's a wave, such that the great majority of close races break toward the Republican, your assumption will prove false.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 08:16:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm surprised...

...that it's so low on people's radar.  The only explanation is the fact that the R candidate is weak.  

The district was Republican for 130 years before Adler, he only won by 4, and the Ocean County part of the district never got over the fact that Myers won the Republican nod in the primary.  This time, Gilmore and the Ocean Bosses got behind Runyan fairly quickly.  If they can churn turnout like they did last year for Christie (he won the (whole) County by 71k, almost his entire margin of victory) then Runyan has a great shot.  

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by: patlak @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 20:47:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another NJ-3 poll

Adler 42-39.

http://www.app.com/article/201...

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by: Paleo @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 09:58:30 AM UTC