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MA-Gov: Did This Race Get A Lot Closer, Too?

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 8:15 AM EDT


UNH for Boston Globe (9/17-22, likely voters, 6/17-23 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35 (38)
Charlie Baker (R): 34 (31)
Tim Cahill (I): 11 (9)
Jill Stein (G): 4 (2)
Undecided: 14 (17)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Western New England Coll. (9/19-22, likely voters, 4/11-15 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 39 (34)
Charlie Baker (R): 33 (27)
Tim Cahill (I): 16 (29)
Jill Stein (G): 3 (-)
Undecided: 7 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)

No, seriously, I don't know if this race got closer or not. UNH (on behalf of the Boston Globe) sees this as a 1-point race, down from a 7-point spread over the summer, seemingly based on movement from Deval Patrick to Charlie Baker, with Tim Cahill mostly stagnant. On the other hand, WNEC sees it as a 6-point race, basically unchanged since the summer, although there's been a huge leak of Cahill support that seemed to flow equally to Patrick and Baker. The Pollster.com average is 40-35 in favor of Patrick (with Rasmussen seeing a close race, but Suffolk giving a 7-point spread last week), so as always, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
Crisitunity :: MA-Gov: Did This Race Get A Lot Closer, Too?
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MA-Gov: Did This Race Get A Lot Closer, Too? | 36 comments
Well i've seen some fishy polls
Come from UNH. But to make a opinion I have to say no the race has not gotten closer. I think the Western New England College poll seems to be on tske to what other pollsters are giving to Patrick, a 5-6 point lead. If any reason why the poll numbers are changing is the implosing of Tim Cahill's campaign but like you said his support has came from supporters of Deval Patrick and Charlie Baker so that could be a moot point. But no I don't think the race has gotten closer.
UNH is always a little fishy
but what really struck me is support for the referendum that would reduce the sales tax to 3%. That may account for some of the movement in the Governor's race.

Michael Dukakis lost in part because of CLT referendum similar in some ways to this one.

[ Parent ]
Cahill plays a spoiler
He obviously can't win. If he drops - the race is, most likely, Baker's, and i wouldn't tear my hair in such case - Baker is sane New England Republican, while my opinion on Patrick's performance in office is far from high. If Cahill stays - Patrick's chances become slightly better then Baker's, but even in this case they are not so good that i would bet my money on him.
Most liberal Republican ticket...
Baker is very liberal on social issues, and his Lt. Gov. nominee is openly gay.  As a whole, the ticket might be more pro-LGBT than Patick/Murray.
[ Parent ]
Exactly!
That's why i am sure that most of the Cahill support comes from socially conservative Republicans, who can't tolerate Tisei for example. Cahill has substantial support on RedMassGroup for example. Compare this with almost unanimous rejection of him on all Democratic sites in state.
[ Parent ]
Incorrect
Patrick has been the marquee crusader for gay rights in the state for the past five years, having campaigned on support of gay marriage and intensely lobbied the legislature against sending gay rights to the ballot (successfully).

Baker opposed MA's transgender rights bill. Patrick supported it.

[ Parent ]
but Tisei - supported
In fact, being a fiscal conservative i have deep suspicion of such "crisis managers" as Patrick in crisis time. I would not mind him being a governor in "proficit time", but see his methods of governing ill-suited for crisis period. Well, the people of Massachusetts will make their verdict really soon anyway...  
[ Parent ]
MA fared best in crisis
Massachusetts is number 1 in job creation in 2010, and we've done it without slashing education or fire department budgets. I humbly suggest that the evidence shows Patrick is an excellent leader through crisis.
[ Parent ]
Pure political discussions
are not encouraged on this site - and for the reason. Otherwise - i would humbly suggest a number of counterarguments. But honoring the wishes of moderators let's stop here))
[ Parent ]
I don't mean to start an off topic tangent,
but would you mind elaborating on some of Patrick's issues? One thing that I haven't really understood is how he can be in the position that he is. I mean, I've heard that he's been brusque and at times tone deaf, but that doesn't explain why he sported some of the worst poll numbers for an incumbent for the past two years.  

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
What comes to mind immediately
Rather abrasive and somewhat autoritarian personal style, rather rocky relations with at least some Democratic leaders in Legislature, "tax-happy" (usually not a big minus for Democrat in Massachusetts, but in crisis time even most liberal people begin to count money). There are other too, but that's what comes to mind immediately

In addition Massachusetts went last year through very well publicized Senate campaign, which made Scott Brown-type politics rather popular among considerable part of State's population, and such politics is very different from Patrick's. Even more - a lot of voters sees a need in some "limitations" of absolute Democratic control of Legislature. I think - most of these factors plus usual (during crisis) voter anger worked together.  

[ Parent ]
Patrick's record
Massachusetts is now number one in the nation in health care coverage, education and - most importantly - job creation. Patrick's record is something Dems in the state can be very proud of.

And the alternative, offered by Cahill and Baker - deep cuts we can't afford and austerity measures - would send us backward.

[ Parent ]
I have to say,
the RGA's demolition job on Cahill has to be one of the most impressive ad attacks anywhere in this election cycle - though it didn't have quite the result they wanted.
The answer is a CLEAR NO, the polling hasn't changed at all......
There's nothing but statistical noise in the movements, coupled with extra volatility from the 3-way race.

Rasmussen's poll earlier this month had Patrick up 45-42-5 in a 3-way, which frankly I take with great excitement because if he's still winning even with Cahill tanking that badly, he's in great shape.

The one-point margin in the new Globe poll is the outlier, but not by a lot.  Again, lots of volatility in polling a 3-way, it's a tough race to poll, and the difference between a 7-point lead and a 1-point lead is not so great in this scenario.

What matters, ALL that matters, is that Patrick continues to lead in ALL polls for a very long time, with no negative momentum building against him.  And as a corollary, his job approvals and favorables are a LOT better in all these polls than all but a couple other Democratic Governors who are up this year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

The only reason
The only reason I would like to see Patrick lose it to watch the punditocracy freak out.  They love to find stories where there isn't one and given that a lot of them have described Patrick winning in 2006 as a dry run for Obama '08, I'm sure many of them just couldn't pass up using a Patrick loss to suggest doom for Obama in '12.  Of course the two things are hardly related, but they'd do it anyway - they have to write something, I suppose.
Well, two reasons, I also have Baker as my pick in Slates Lean/Lock game, but other than that, not really a big thing.  I don't even think it would make a difference with redistricting as I believe the Dems have a veto proof majority in the legislature.  I don't actually know, if someone non-partisan was doing it, if you could carve out a couple of GOP house seats in Mass.  Or are they enough of a minority in the state to get a minority-majority district under the voting rights act? :)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Someone
did a gerrymander map of Massachusetts and the most favorable result for the GOP there was a R+5 and a swing seat.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
That was me--R+6 and R+3
Here's the map: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

But of course, it won't happen even with Baker in office, because the Democrats have huge supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Could Baker Protect Perry?
Contrary to my name, I've no idea. Dems will almost certainly have veto-proof majorities in both houses of the legislature, but I'm not sure how redistricting gets done there.

I'm already on record as not thinking Perry wins in MA-10, but it's certainly a possibility.

In that event I'm sure Perry would prefer to have his district get a little wider in the South Shore area and take Quincy out. I'm sure Democrats would prefer one of the following :
A. To make the district even thinner (and, according to '08 population estimates, you can do this) all the way to Southie, and make him run against Lynch in 2012. (Even if Perry wins, and he'd be an underdog, at least they're rid of Lynch.)
B. If someone else in the delegation retires or moves on (Does Capuano take a shot at Scott Brown? In the event of a GOP takeover in 2010, does one of the old House folks retire?) Democrats decide that, at long last, the South Coast deserves its own Congresscritter. New Bedford and Fall River are not friendly to Republicans at all, and - in contrast to Worcester, Springfield, or Lowell - most of the surrounding towns aren't either.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Massachusetts dpes reditricting by statute
That is, the legislature writes a law define the districts and the governor either signs it or vetoes it like anything else.  The only way the Republicans can stop a Democratic Gerrymander is if they win the governor's race AND get 1/3rd of the seats in house or senate.  I haven't been playing close attention to the legislative races so I have no idea whether that's at all likely.  After the 1992 election, the GOP was able to get sustain Gov. Weld's vetoes, but I think the Dems have had supermajorities since at least the mid 90s.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Here's my two cents on the whole thing
First, Perry--it will be really hard to draw him out because he lives on Cape Cod and no one else lives even close to the Cape. He would always have a Democratic district, but it's hard to make it more Democratic AND draw another Congressman, like Lynch, in. Most likely, they will do what you say and shift the district over to include the South Coast, making it a tougher hold for Perry and giving Plymouth County to Lynch or Frank. However, re-arranging Perry's district still doesn't solve the problem of needing to eliminate a district altogether.

I don't think the Democrats in the State Legislature are going to redraw the map until they know who, if anyone, is going to leave their seat to take on Scott Brown. If one sitting Rep leaves--and the most likely candidates are Capuano and Markey--that person's district likely gets divided up into the other Democrats' districts. Another possibility is that someone retires--most likely Olver way out in Western Mass. That would make things easy as well.

If Keating wins, he'll get drawn in with Lynch. In a worst case scenario--9 Democrats for 8 seats plus Perry--it would probably be Tsongas vs. Olver in a district that takes in the entire northern tier of the state, from Lowell to Williamstown.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
If Keating wins...
...then the Cape will be the orphan during redistricting.  If Sen. O' Leary (from the Cape) won the Democratic primary it would be a lot different, ensuring a Cape Rep. who'd want to defend the seat and the area.  Now it will take a Perry win for that, and it's not like he's going to have any support in the leg...While the Cape is only about 200k ppl, Barnstable is the 3rd oldest county agewise in the country and the voters usually turn out.

A Cape/Plymouth/South Coast district with New Beford/Fall River would be interesting, and I don't think Rep. Frank would mind losing the southern portion of his district and having more Democratic territory closer to home.  

[ Parent ]
The Plans
If Keating wins there won't be likely any real changes to the district. It'll have to grow by about 10%. If the map drawers know what they are doing, that 10% will include either Brockton or Randolph, the two most Democratic towns (excluding Boston itself) in that area by a good margin. There might be an interior South Shore area town or two to cut out, as those are pretty red especially by Bay State standards. They have nowhere else to go; somebody's gotta get the Cape/Islands.

As far as the musical chairs thing goes (I knew that when I made my first post but forgot to state it) you could draw Lynch's Southie home in there if no one else leaves, but I'm guessing someone else walks away. Either the GOP takes the House and one or more of Frank, Markey, Olver, or Neal, not wanting to go back to the minority where they're no longer in line to chair important committees, leave, or one of more of them (Capuano has first crack, probably; I can't picture anyone more senior risking their seat) decides to take on Scott Brown.

The way to go after Perry would be to tie the Cape/Islands with the cluster of Fall River, Somerset, Freetown, Westport, Dartmouth, New Bedford, Fairhaven, and Acushnet.
Leave Lynch with most of the South Shore. Frank cleans up the northern half of Bristol. In exchange for losing all that good territory and getting some bad towns for Democrats, give him some more close-in Boston stuff.

I'll have to put the plans up there, but there are so many variables and unknowns still out there...



36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
I love SSP, the land of my favorite nerds!......
How many people in Massachusetts would be able to come up with Answer Guy's comment?  How many political junkies in America are so deep in the weeds to explain exactly which towns to put into a seat to make it more blue?

This is great stuff!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In other news
Coakley still leads by double digits. No worries.
she really lucked out
That the MA Dems weren't so pissed at her that they tossed her out of the AG office.  
[ Parent ]
You get that I was referring
To the Globe's polling right?
[ Parent ]
nope, im on my blackberry at work
So I try my best not to have scroll around and look shit up or else my ciggy breaks turn into 15 minute breaks. I hate SSP this way and should just go back to being unemployed. ;)
[ Parent ]
Looks like Cahill is playing the Chris Daggett role in this race
I think the bottom line is what percentage of the vote Cahill can get. If he's gets above 15% I think Patrick wins. If Cahill collapses and is well under 10% Baker wins.

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Sort Of...
...Massachusetts is more pro-Dem than New Jersey is, and Patrick's not as unpopular as Corzine was though.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
It's not really about pro or anti dem.
The Democratic Party is so dominant, monolithic, and cob webbed that the Republican Party serves a different function than elsewhere.  Particularly since a lot of conservative ethnics (think South Boston and the nominations of Ed King and John Silber) who would be Republicans elsewhere are Democrats.  So like in Rhode Island it is often a vehicle for reform and rational development (since the Democratic powerbrokers tend to be notoriously provincial to the point of myopia).

Hence the election of a long line of Republican governors who are nowhere as scary as your typical Republican governor.  And yes, while I though Romeny was a charlatan and would never have voted for him if I had still lived there, Romney governed and campaigned VERY differently before he decided that gay marriage court ruling could be his golden ticket to becoming President.

Baker is the type of Republican that folks who'd otherwise lean Democratic have grown very comfortable voting for.  The question is will Cahill take enough of the white catholics ethnics who'd probably go for Baker over Patrick.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
That Is Its Traditional Role...
...Romney and Bush managed to screw that up. They're both gone of course but I think the political scene's been nationalized some even independent of them.

Patrick has made missteps for sure, but he's definitely not a Beacon Hill hack like the kind of people that often inspire voters to vote Republican who otherwise wouldn't consider it.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
I haven't noticed any
reform brought about by the Republican Party in RI. Now maybe it's because I live in a part of Providence where Republicans are an endangered species, who knows. but Buddy Cianci used to be a Repub. just saying.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Nope, wrong. Polls with Cahill in single digits still show Patrick winning......
Rasmussen's last poll had Patrick up 45-42-5.  That's rock-bottom for Cahill, 5%, less than Daggett got, and still Patrick is in 1st.

The reality of this race is that while the RGA likened it to NJ-Gov last year, in their defense not a bad presumption at all early on, it's turned out very differently, with Patrick the 2nd choice of a lot more Cahill voters than Republicans believed.  Every poll that has Cahill tanking still has Patrick winning.

Patrick's job approvals and favorables are consistently middling but NOT truly bad.  I've commented elsewhere that Patrick is in the 3rd-best shape of any incumbent Gov up this year, behind only Beebe and Lynch.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
No, it hasn't yet
The Globe poll is encouraging for Baker, but everything else suggests that Patrick is in the mid-to-high 30's, Baker is in the low 30's, and Cahill is in the teens.

There are two reasons why we could see real movement here in the next couple of weeks, though. One is the potential for Cahill to drop out, which only helps Baker if there's an endorsement. The other is that Patrick and Baker have both started to go up on the air, which means the number of undecideds will drop. Baker, believe it or not, still isn't as well known as you'd expect a gubernatorial nominee to be, so he has room to grow--or, Patrick could attack him first and knock his favorables down.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Second choice in the poll for the Univ of NH

The question for the second choice gives better results for Patrick (D) than for Baker (R):

Cahill 35%
Patrick 14%
Baker 12%
Stein 12%

For the voters what take Cahill as first option, the second choice would be:

Patrick 39%
Baker 35%
Stein 8%

interesting statewide results

MA-ST (State Treasurer)
Suffolk: Grossman (D) +11%
UNH: Grossman (D) +10%

MA-SA (State Auditor)
Suffolk: Bump (D) +2%
UNH: Bump (D) +4%

Still without numbers about MA-10

MA-Gov: Did This Race Get A Lot Closer, Too? | 36 comments

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