If you aren't even close in a challenger's poll,

you are going to win. Maybe Chandler can run for statewide office eventually.

I heard Luallen is looking at McConnell's seat in 2014.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 01:34:23 AM UTC

Now that pisses me off

Why the hell didn't Luallen run in 2008, if Lunsford kept Chinless to only 5 points, someone like Luallen, Conway, or Chandler would have had no problem beating McConnell.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 02:25:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some people say that but it's a dubious and speculative argument......

Luallen polled well early on, but we have no idea if she would've run a competent campaign or if it would've been enough.

McConnell was a longtime incumbent and a conservative in a conservative state and had $20 million to spend in 2006.

Lunsford waged an admirable challenge, a better campaign than some expected him to run.

It was not a given Luallen would've done any better.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 02:38:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I stand by what I said about Chandler though

Lunsford did run a good campaign, I'll certainly grant him that, but McConnell was also fairly unpopular in 2008. True he had boatloads of cash, and the support of the NRSC (whatever that was worth back then), but then again, given how well the DSCC was doing for funds back then, and that Kentucky is not always opposed to electing Democrats statewide from time-to-time, it's not out of line to suggest that a top-tier challenger running a good campaign would have been able to knock McConnell off.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 02:44:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree on Chandler. He would've been golden. I don't know what his ambitions are......

If he wanted to be Governor or a Senator, it seems he blew his best opportunities in 2006, 2007, and 2010.

Maybe he's just happy being a Congressman?

I just don't know.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 02:48:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe not

Though to be honest I can say with some confidence I think she would have won. Granted we will never know, the perfect candidate on paper can run a crappy campaign so who knows. However she has real support in rural Appalachia Kentucky. She would have done much better in the rural areas than Lunsford did and like Lunsford she would have cleaned up in Jeff. My guess she would have won by five points, Chandler would have won by a similar margin, he is very popular. I think the reason she did not run is she would have had to resign from her post, I know she would have had she ran for LG in 2011. I like Lunsford, gave him money, and made calls for him but he was a very flawed candidate. He did run a good campaign but his baggage kept him from ever being able to beat McConnell, it was only as close as it was because people hate McConnell not like Lunsford. Lunsford is not that likeable of guy and has a lot of baggage. The whole nursing home thing is why McConnell is still a Senator right now in my view. People thought I was nuts for going for Fischer in the primary but I think he would have narrowly won the general. I remember getting in a fight with a friend over whether or not it was fair for Fischer to bring up Lunsford's alleged business failings, funny it was brought up in the general and cost us a seat. Fischer was willing to spend his money and he did not come with the baggage Lunsford did. We will never really know but I think there is a fairly good chance that Luallen will being taking her oath of office in Jan 2015. I hope so anyway.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 03:55:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The only problem I see with that

is that Lunsford actually did quite well in Appalachia, especially in the northern reaches of KY-05 and southern tendrils of KY-04, better than Mongiardo in some cases. He was just a little weaker everywhere else, which is probably more indicative of McCain's coattails and McConnell's campaign than anything.  

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by: jwaalk @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 07:10:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

i think rand paul has peaked early

though i think a close race is still to come, i see conway winning by a nose

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by: primaryarlen @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 01:46:07 AM UTC

So how did KY-06 compare to statewide...

In the Presidential Election? Perhaps we can get a better sense of how close (or far) KY-06 votes with the state in federal races.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 02:26:31 AM UTC

Obama's margin was about 6 points better than statewide

Basically, the district is very much a must-win for Conway, especially if turnout is down in KY-03.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 02:38:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

By districts...

KY-01: Obama 37%, McCain 62%
KY-02: Obama 38%, McCain 61%
KY-03: Obama 56%, McCain 43%
KY-04: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
KY-05: Obama 31%, McCain 67%
KY-06: Obama 43%, McCain 55%

Obama lost the state overall to McCain by 16 points, 57%-41%.  So he did slightly better in KY-06 than he did statewide, but only marginally.  In fact, KY-06 came the closest of any Kentucky district in resembling the statewide numbers there.

Given those numbers, Conway MUST win by a HUGE margin in KY-03, and also win KY-06.  He has to try to keep it somewhat close in KY-01, KY-02, and KY-04, and just try to tread water in KY-05.

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by: BruinKid @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 06:15:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too keyed in on Presidential toplines

Kentuckians know he needs an upper single digits win in KY-06, plus a big double digit win KY-03, and a narrow win of KY-05, because he's going to lose KY-04 by a significant margin, and his best hope is to keep KY-02 and and 01 close by winning some of the conservative rural farming territories, and in that sense Paul's position on ag subsidies is HUGE.  

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by: jwaalk @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 07:08:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the KY education!

So it seems Conway will at least have to carry KY-03 by a landslide, carry KY-06 (perhaps at least by mid-to-high single digits just in case), and keep all the other districts close (and perhaps win KY-05). We'll have to keep a close eye on these areas on Election Night.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 14:48:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

'08 vs. job rating

I don't think it's about comparing how Obama did with what a KY Democrat will do. It's just about looking at the poll. I just noticed that this KY6 poll has Obama's job rating at almost 49% approval when he only received 43% of the vote in 2008. Just seems hard to swallow.

And I don't think it's as easy just knocking six points off of Chandler's lead. It shows that their methodology is out of whack.  

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by: nathanlgonzales @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 18:13:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

KY-05 is weird

It's one of those West Virginia or PA-12 type Appalachian districts where everyone identifies as a Democrat but votes Republican for President. Democrats usually win the northern part of it in state-level races even when they lose statewide by a wide margin. The southern and western parts of the district (which border Tennessee), on the other hand, are the most Republican part of Kentucky, along with the neighboring eastern finger of KY-01.

I think Conway will run close in KY-05  because the voters there love them some pork and were probably turned off by Paul's drug comments. Paul's job is really to win KY-01 and KY-04 by similar margins to Conway's win in KY-03, put up a solid showing in KY-02, and fight to a draw in KY-05 and KY-06.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 16:00:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

KY-05

Went 61% for Bush to 67% for McCain with some big Republicans swings in the northern counties. When I first saw a map of the KY-05 and the counties in it that voted Democratic, I thought it would be more Democratic but the southern counties are really conservative like east Tenessee. I think Conway can do really well in the northern part where Rand Paul's "no government" ideas will probably hinder him. The southern part I do not know too much about though.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 22:00:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Chandler will win.

He has voted his district very well during his stint in congress. Conway can carry this district and still lose statewide (its not a bell-weather), so he'll need to rack up a big margin here. If I had to bet though I think Paul will win.

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by: FairfaxVA @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 02:32:23 AM UTC

Braun Research's Track Record

It looks like Chandler is ahead, but I think these Braun Research polls should be met with a bit of skepticism.

They released a poll in Kentucky 3 that showed Cong. Yarmuth with a 23-point lead- 53%-30%. On its face, that's not unreasonable, but it showed Obama with a 58% job approval ratings when he only received 56% of the vote there in 2008. Seems to be a stretch that he's more popular than two years ago.

And that poll had Conway winning the district with only 51%. That would be terrible news for Conway since it's his home district and the most Democratic in the state.  

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by: nathanlgonzales @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 03:37:21 AM UTC

Thanks, Nathan. We sincerely appreciate your contribution here as a professional in the biz. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 03:58:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Braun is not one of my favorite pollsters. Their Senate numbers were wacky as well. Paul leading by ten one week, Conway pulling ahead soon after. I buy these numbers though as they match with other polling data. I think I buy their Yarmuth numbers as well, 58 is high but still knock that down to say 50 or so and you still get a wide Yarmuth lead. Plus I think Yarmuth will get many non Obama supporters, he is, regardless of what SUSA says, very popular overall. Also you are right, no way Conway is only at 51% in KY-03.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 04:05:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

6th a must win for Chandler, but not a "must landslide"

In 2008 Obama lost KY by 16.  He lost the 6th by 12.  If that trend holds, then Conway must win by just over 52-48 here for a 50-50 to win statewide.

In 2004, Kerry lost KY by 20.  He lost the 6th by 17. In 2000 Gore lost KY by 15 and lost the 6th by 14.

Sooo, Obama +4 versus the state, Kerry +3 versus the state, Gore +1 versus the state.  Then again, different district in 2000 (redistricting, so throw that out).

Bascially a 6 point win here would be great, holding all other districts constant to their usual over/underperformance.

On the other hand, the 3rd is a "must landslide."

Source:http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
and
http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

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by: liberal intellectual @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 04:43:29 AM UTC

By Chandler I obviously mean Conway

Although the 6th is also a must win for Chandler!!

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by: liberal intellectual @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 04:44:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Conway

 Will have to get better than a 52-48 in KY-06. He did very well there in the primary and seems particulary strong in that part of Kentucky. Although his poor showing in eastern Kentucky can be explained by Mongirado's presence on the ballot, I do not know how well he will do there. Since the voters there seem to be more pro big government while Rand Paul is everything but that, Conway should do well there.

I think the place where Conway needs to worry about doing 8% better than Obama is western Kentucky which seems more libertarian (except on social issues) but not urban where Conway does well.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 21:48:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More good news from Kentucky, SurveyUSA has Conway pulling closer

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Paul (R) 49%
Conway (D) 47%

It's a two point race now. I think Conway might be able to pull this off.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Sun Sep 26, 2010 at 05:39:08 AM UTC

In three weeks those wacky KY younger voters

have gone from 60/33 favoring Paul to 46/44 favoring Paul.

Or maybe SurveyUSA is (or has been) bumblefricked...

I'll take the latter.

The change from Paul +15 to Paul +2 clearly relects a change in SurveyUSA practices moreso than some miraculous sea change among 18-34 and 65+ voters (the latter now favor Paul after favoring Conway previously).

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by: tommypaine @ Sun Sep 26, 2010 at 09:32:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]