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SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 8:05 AM EDT


  • DE-Sen: Interesting - Mike Castle isn't ruling out a write-in bid. If he does pull the trigger, let's see if the NRSC and the Senate GOP caucus have the stomach to tell Castle to fuck off. It'd be a great test of their will - and their willingness to embrace Christine O'Donnell.
  • FL-Sen: Al Gore Alert! In a rare sighting on the campaign trail, Al Gore (still my president!) will headline a rally for Kendrick Meek in Tampa on September 30th. Have we seen Gore do events for any other candidates this cycle?
  • KY-Sen: Objectively pro-methamphetamine senate candidate Rand Paul keeps running into trouble over his views on drugs. Republican Clay County Sherriff Kevin Johnson endorsed Paul after Paul told him he supported Operation UNITE, a federally-funded anti-drug task force. Paul's hostility to UNITE, though, is what's gotten him into hot water in the first place - and amazingly enough, when asked to confirm his pledge to Johnson, Paul's campaign refused to back it up! I had always hoped/prayed/expected that Rand Paul was such a hardcore libertarian that he'd rigidly - and publicly - cling to beliefs that halfway-competent politicians would be smart enough to elide, deny, or just plain hide. I just figured it would be something like the gold standard, not, you know, meth.
  • Surprisingly, Paul has smelled the glove belonging to a very different interest group, the neocons. They mistrust Paul's views on Israel and probably just on the general concept of randomly invading countries and killing people.

  • AR-Gov: That Ipsos poll which showed Blanche Lincoln "only" 14 points into her political grave also has a gubernatorial component. Dem Gov. Mike Beebe is beating Republican Jim Keet by a 55-37 margin among LVs. You want an enthusiasm gap? Beebe wins 58-30 among RVs. (It was 57-35 among RVs back in July.)
  • CO-Gov: God, I love the smell of ratfucking in the morning. So, we all know about Scott McInnis's now-legendary implosion thanks to his plagiarism/theft scandal, but Democrats had a big hand in consigning him to the dustbin of history. It turns out that a group called the Colorado Freedom Fund spent half a million bucks on ads blistering McInnis during the primary, in order to help bolster Dan Maes. The DGA was a big contributor to this effort, chipping in $150K, while unions and wealthy philanthropist Pat Stryker gave the rest. Excellent fucking work, guys.
  • MN-Gov: The RGA is funneling $428K to a pro-Tom Emmer group, while the DGA sent a quarter mil to an org helping Dem Mark Dayton.
  • TX-Gov: Rick Perry may not be the suckiest suck who ever sucked, but you'll have to agree that he is pretty sucky. The Texas Farm Bureau finally agrees, too. Though they've always endorsed him in the past (and have always endorsed Republicans for governor), they're giving up on his sorry ass this year and staying neutral in the race. (They previously endorsed Kay Bailey Hutchison against him in the primary.) It probably didn't help that a Perry spokesman, in an attempt to bolster his boss's teabagger/secessionista cred, derided the bureau as "an insurance company that supported the bailout."
  • IL-14: We could call this the Hypocrisy State Project and still have tons to write about. The latest chapter in this never-ending saga is penned by Republican Randy Hultgren, who was responsible for marketing his investment firm's funds. One of the firm's offerings invested entirely in bailout-backed securities, which were described by one Wall Streeter as "an incredibly free lunch." This is a two-fer, because this fund was also based in the Cayman Islands, to take advantage of lax tax laws, of course.
  • MA-10: Massachusetts, at least, is one place where Republicans still need to run away from their own party in order to be electable. So it's no surprise to see Jeffrey Perry declare that he doesn't want Sarah Palin showing up in his district. (Don't worry, bud, I think you're safe.) Of course, Perry isn't exactly from the non-crazy wing of the Republican Party (to the extent there still is such a thing), since he has teabagger ties himself.
  • MI-07: Rossman Group/Team Telcom (9/20, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Mark Schauer (D-inc): 38
    Tim Walberg (R): 42
    Undecided: 12
    (MoE: ±5.6%)

  • NY-18: This interview with Jim Russell - remember him from yesterday? the guy whose writings have been favorably cited by the KKK? - is just brutal. He doesn't disavow anything. So we've gotta ask: Why isn't the press giving this guy the Alvin Greene treatment? After all, Greene's weirdest idea was to sell bobblehead dolls. Russell thinks there are too many Jews. Anyhow, the Westchester GOP is trying to get Russell off the ballot through legal means, and they say if they can't, they'll run a write-in candidate.
  • NY-19: A judge ruled against a group trying to knock Nan Hayworth off the Independence Party line for a lack of valid signatures. Hayworth gets to keep the line, while incumbent John Hall has the Working Families line.
  • NY-23: With the vote count all but completed, it looks like Matt Doheny is (still) the winner of the Republican primary, but Doug Hoffman ain't conceding yet. I guess he feels burned after what happened in the special election, where he tried to "un-concede" after some counting errors emerged (but still lost anyway). The vote count does not officially get certified until the 27th, but Doheny could declare victory (and/or Hoffman could concede) before then. Hoffman still hasn't said anything about how vigorously (if at all) he plans to wage war from the Conservative Party line.
  • PA-10: Another day, another NRA endorsement for a Dem. Chris Carney is the latest in a string of mostly-conservative Democrats to rack up the group's support, even though they labeled him a "true enemy" of guns just four years ago.
  • TN-09: Heh - the Memphis Flyer commissioned a poll by Yacoubian Research, which found Steve Cohen leading Charlotte Bergmann 66-23. There were only 205 respondents, and note that we previously flagged a Yacoubian poll of the primary for attempting to screen voters by asking them if they lived in the 9th CD - how many people actually know what district they live in, by number? But whatever, Steve Cohen ain't losing.
  • VA-09: Rick Boucher successfully got an ad by Americans for Job Security pulled off the air for making a misleading statements. The ad said "Rick Boucher supports Nancy Pelosi 96 percent of the time," but this claim was based on the Washington Post's "party voting" score, which Boucher rightly argued does not measure "support for Pelosi." (A good time to remind folks that it's much, much easier to get third-party ads yanked because stations are liable for defamation when they run these ads. Media outlets are immune from liability for candidate ads.)
  • SSP TV (by James L.):

    • LA-Sen: "Diaper" David Vitter hits Charlie Melancon for attending a fundraiser in Canada, of all places.
    • AR-01: Chad Causey's latest spot takes a shotgun approach to messaging, touting his heritage, his support for a balanced budget amendment and a paycut for Congress, while hitting Republican Rick Crawford over the bad kind of SSP and for his support of a 23% national sales tax
    • FL-22: Allen West takes on Ron Klein over a Florida Democratic Party mailer that boneheadedly revealed West's Social Security number
    • GA-08: Dem Rep. Jim Marshall goes heavy negative on GOP state Rep. Austin Scott on immigration - not once, but twice
    • MI-07: GOP douche Tim Walberg says that Dem Rep. Mark Schauer is spending America into ruin, and also makes the dubious claim that he "strongly supports" Social Security. The ad, a coordinated expenditure partially paid for by the RNC, is airing in the Lansing media market and cost $85,000.
    • MI-15: John Dingell goes negative on Republican Rob Steele over his support from the wretched hive of scum and villainy that is Wall Street, while Steele has gone up with an ad of his own touting his record as a physician and poking Dingell over spending
    • NC-02: Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge's latest ad features the testimonials of locals who say that Etheridge saved their jobs
    • OH-12: Dem Paula Brooks touts her record on the Franklin County Commission while spilling marbles all over her kitchen island
    • OR-05: GOPer Scott Bruun will stop the spending... except when it comes to restoring Medicare cuts, apparently
    • SC-02: Libruhl Rob Miller and libruhl Nancy Pelosi will liberally kill all your jobs; meanwhile, Joe Wilson still sounds like he uses a speech synthesizer instead of a functional set of vocal cords. Seriously, what a creepy-sounding asshole.
    • VA-09: Republican Morgan Griffith plays a clip of Barack Obama saying "I love Rick Boucher" - four times in thirty seconds
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Morning Edition)
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    MI-7
    Not that bad considering the pollster leans Republican.  Still, it will be a tough seat to hold.

    Not bad at all
    This is definitely going to be a hard hold for the Dems, but it can be done primarily because Walberg is not a great candidate and Schauer's cash advantage.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I have it on my "gone" list
    He barely beat Wahlberg in 2008 in a GOP district that went for Obama because McCain abandoned the state.  And I'm using 2008 numbers for a lot of my predictions since so many people who will lose were swept into office in big waves.  If you didn't win by more than 5% last time and you're a first termer or if you didn't get 10% and you're a second termer, you're probably on my gone list.  (Please don't anyone go through the actual list and point out every race where Id be wrong to do this; there are obviously exceptions to every baseline.)

    [ Parent ]
    Good baseline
    I would agree with your methods with this seat if it were not for the divisions within the Republican Party over this seat.  

    An interesting fact about this seat:  Obama won more votes than Schauer.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    PA-8 poll
    I posted this in an earlier thread, but Franklin & Marshall poll has Fitzpatrick ahead by 14 among likely voters, and 10 among registered voters:

    http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

    You would think with these bad numbers Sestak would be further than 6 or 7 points behind.  I think it shows Toomey's weakness.  And people should remember that these PA districts were the result of Republican gerrymandering.  Several Democrats are in districts that lean Republican, in some cases decidedly so.  Since it looks like Republicans again will control the redistricting this time around, if the gain 4 or 5 house seats this year, it will make if harder for them to gerrymander the remaining Democrats, and to gain any seats as a result.


    PA-8
    Franklin and Marshall have the first private poll in PA-8.

    Likely Voters
    Fitzpatrick 49
    Murphy 35

    Registered Voters
    Fitzpatrick 46
    Murphy 36

    Obama approval in PA-8 - 37 percent

    http://www.philly.com/philly/n...

    I am shocked.  I was estimating that Fitzpatrick was up by 1 to 5 points, but this pushing it.  

    Remember, the NRCC moved PA-13, the neighboring D+7 district helped by Schwartz onto the Contender tier, the tier right below Young Gun, out of nowhere on Monday.

    Maybe things are worse in the Philly suburbs than even I suspected.  I admit my support of my suburban implosion theory has been fanatical, but maybe I was even underestimating it.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    If anything
    I would have thought Dahlkemper would be down something like this and Murphy down 6, which is what F&M found for Dahlkemper.  I had these both as losses anyway though.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Re:
    Have to say I'm really surprised at the PA-8 numbers.  Murphy seemed well liked and had no scandal or controversies.  But as I said above, the Republicans drew that district to protect Fitzpatrick.  If he wins, they may have to redraw it again to save him for a challenge from Murphy in 2012.

    [ Parent ]
    More than gerrymandering
    This seat is no more horribly gerrymandered than PA-3.  If anything, it is not nearly as gerrymandered as it includes one county and slivers of two others.  

    What I have begun wondering over the last two weeks is if Pennsylvania truly is reverting to its pre-Bush era politics.  The congressional and state legislative races really are shaping up to be that way.  That would also explain why Toomey was up by high single low double digits in the two polls released by the campaigns in PA-8.  

    The Senate race might end up being a rerun of the 1994 Senate race when Santorum got crushed out west, but crushed Wofford in the southeast.  The geographic disparity was so pronounced that both candidates lost their home counties (Allegheny and Montgomery respectively).

    That would also explain the NRCC's actions in PA-13.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    If anything, it's pre-'06 politics
    Dems have won 5 Republican held seats since '06.  Things might just be reverting back to the way they were before then.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, this "pre-Bush" notion is stupid. It's a wave election, it's a ONE-TIME thing, and...
    ...PA's trend is not changing because of a one-time blip.

    Just as 1996 was nothing like 1994, 2012 will be nothing like 2010.  And long-term trends over the past decade will simply resume.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    PA's trends are facinating
    The state hasn't shifted right or left in the last 30 years, but the republican base moved to the west and the democratic base moved to the east.

    [ Parent ]
    To add to that point
    Since '06, not only have Dems won 5 seats in PA, they've won 6 seats in NY and 4 in OH.  It's not a surprise they're in trouble in a lot of those.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually . .
    Seven seats in NY.  

    [ Parent ]
    Trends
    I don't discount that trends could resume after this cycle, but I have doubts whether they will and to the extent if they do.  I could easily see the next few electoral cycles being focused on wallet issues not cultural issues.  If that is the case, there will be a substantial reversal of the Democratic suburban gains.  If the Republicans nominate someone like Palin whose obsessed with cultural issues, the trends will continue.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    On the other hand
    If we're arguing that the next few elections will be about wallet issues rather than cultural issues, states like Tennessee and Arkansas would start moving back toward the Democrats.  And that isn't happening.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

    [ Parent ]
    Dems are doing pretty good in the South
    While Arkansas and Tennessee are going to be bloodbaths, the Democrats look like they will do ok in the former Confederacy as a whole.  The Democrats have a strong chance of adding Governorships in Texas, Florida, and Texas while only losing Tennessee.  The House outside of Tennessee and Arkansas looks pretty good for the Democrats.  I suspect the Democrats only lose a dozen House seats in the Confederacy while gaining probably two.  For a region that most said would be a bloodbath for the Democrats this year, it is not turning out too bad at all.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Doing pretty well in the south?
    That would be news.  They're like to lose two seats in Virginia, one in South Carolina, three in Florida, among other places.  They probable won't win a single senate seat in the region.  Whenever the generic vote is broken down into regions, Democrats always do the worst in the south.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't forget LA-02
    last I checked, that was still in the South

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not betting against
    John Spratt.  

    [ Parent ]
    GA
    I assume you meant that they might win GA-Gov instead of mentioning Texas twice.  The Dems are doing less bad in the south than other areas mostly because they have much less to lose down here.  Most of their vulnerables are already gone.  With regard to the Govs, in this year, I'd consider them lucky to pick up one of those states - if they get two, it would be a plus for them.  But they might lose their only southern Senate seat up this year (Okay, WV is a border state, but close enough).

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    I meant Georgia <nt>


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I think there will be another "culture war" election
    Much in the same vein as 2004 was except this time liberals will be picking the fight in favor of gay marriage.  Ill be downright shocked if the Dem 2016 presidential nominee isn't cornered into having to come out for marriage equality as its already happening at the state level with statewide candidates.  Look at how LGBTers are treating Target Corp and Obama and fellow Dem leaders; we're pissed and the fight at the national level is only brewing.

    If it weren't for the economy and that hurting Obama so badly, you'd probably see most LGBTers just stay home bc Obama has been so disappointing and most of us are just cutting him some slack.  And even then, I still read about protesters all the time who show up and attack our Dem leaders rather than the bigotted GOP who are actually standing in the way.


    [ Parent ]
    This doesn't follow
    I could easily see the next few electoral cycles being focused on wallet issues not cultural issues.  If that is the case, there will be a substantial reversal of the Democratic suburban gains.

    Yeah, that could easily happen in 2010 because, whatever informed people think about the likelihood that Republican leadership in Congress would actually improve the economy, the fact is, the Democrats, as the ruling party, get blamed for the lousy economy on their watch.

    But if the economy is good in 2012, wallet issues could lead to large gains for the Democrats, especially if they maintain even slim majorities in either or both Houses of Congress and thereby get more credit for the improvement.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    PA-8 is not gerrymandered at all.  It's Bucks county plus a little leftover to get to the right population.  Bucks County has an identity, and the fact that it's got its own CD is more than reasonable.  

    [ Parent ]
    it's all in the slivers though!
    Which speaks to a larger point I like to make; just because a district doesn't look gerrymandered doesn't mean it isn't.  MN doesn't look gerrymandered when its actually just a hot mess.

    [ Parent ]
    Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
    When the district was drawn for the 2002 cycle, Allegedly Moderate Republican Jim Greenwood was the seemingly eternal incumbent, which is why when they had to add non-Bucks population to even the numbers they felt comfortable grabbing Dem pockets from MontCo and NE Phila (from PA-13).  Those precincts were Murphy's margin of victory in 2006.

    [ Parent ]
    OK
    I stand corrected.  Then which districts were made more Republican by the post-2000 redistricting, or were zeroed out?

    [ Parent ]
    In SE PA
    They combined Hoeffel's (13th, MontCo) and Borski's (3rd, NE Phila) districts, hoping for a bloody primary war.  Borski retired instead.  That district, now Schwartz's, was drawn to be swingy; instead, she made it safe.  PA-6 was created in the western burbs for carpetbagger Gerlach, in the process making perceived-congressman-for-life Weldon's district a bit more D-heavy.  

    [ Parent ]
    Shit, that's almost write-off territory, if true
    I think the Northeastern and mid-Atlantic burbs will have to be triaged and partially conceded. That's a shame, because that's a major building block of the new Democratic majority.

    And Patrick Murphy is one of the good ones.  


    [ Parent ]
    It WAS the building block of the new Dem majority...
    It doesn't seem that way anymore...  at least not until the GOP goes back tot heir religious right ways... which they will, at some point, I'm sure...

    [ Parent ]
    It still is. One election doesn't change long-term trends. See the forest from the trees and...
    ...realize electoral change isn't linear, it has fits and starts and interruptions.

    A bad year is just a bad year, not the start or reversal of a trend.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Wait a minute
    The GOP got away from their religious right ways?  Or are voters just conveniently ignoring it?

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

    [ Parent ]
    They've shut up about it...
    The religious right has been totally silent, haven't you noticed?

    The Bush brand of conservatism is still dead as a doornail.  The GOP rebranded itself by switching to the Ron Paul version of conservatism.  It's been quite successful.


    [ Parent ]
    I really disagree with that
    They just aren't discussing those issues as much because those aren't what's the concern right now.  Well, actually, part of the GOP Pledge to America is to stop federally funded abortions, so there you go.  The two articles Ive read on it has mentioned this, towards the top.

    [ Parent ]
    You mean, to go beyond the Hyde Amendment
    and stop funding abortions that save a woman's life, for example? Is THAT what's in their Pledge? Because as things stand and have stood since I think 1976 or so, there is no Federal funding for abortions except in cases where the pregnant woman's life is in imminent danger or the pregnancy was the result of rape or incest.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    A public poll is not trustworthy when it varies drastically from BOTH sides' own internals......
    We've seen internals released recently by both campaigns, and they both show a single-digit race, Fitzpatrick by 7 in his, and Murphy by 4 in his.

    The notion it's now a 15-point race is silly.  Nothing has happened to move numbers that much in this short a time.  You see this kind of movement without events driving them only right before the election, when leaners and undecideds finally make up their minds and 11th-hour surges naturally happen.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    BucksCo is the least Democratic
    Philly collar county. And the Ds at the top of the ballot likely aren't doing well there.

    I can believe that this poll overstates the magnitude of Murphy's deficit, but I doubt it's got the wrong winner (were the election held today).


    [ Parent ]
    Looks like
    we've got a racist-off in GA-08.

    Siena poll has Cuomo with huge lead
    Also has Gilibrand up 57/31
    crosstabs here.

    IMO, Siena may be the outlier here. But it's measuring registered voters. We'll see. . .


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, that's true
    But it's hard to believe there's a 25 point gap between registered and likely.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, that's where we are
    Schumer, Cuomo, Gilibrand, and the state Dem apparatus need to spend their cash to make the Ds show up.  

    [ Parent ]
    Agree, if they'd done likely, the numbers would still be far different from Q-poll or SUSA......
    It's instructive to see the LV/RV comparisons from the CNN/Time polls yesterday, and basically the difference gave the GOP a LV advantage of 3-6 points per candidate, e.g. Feingold did 3 points worse with LVs and Ron Johnson 5 points better.  And that passes the sniff test, as turnout variance is significant and can be decisive but is NEVER ENORMOUS.

    So if you take away 6 points from Gillibrand and give 6 to DioGiardi in Siena and say that's what a LV version of Siena's poll would look like, she still leads by a healthy 51-37.

    Oh, and btw, Taegan Goddard reports that Marist will come out with a new NY poll tomorrow, but no word if it's LVs or RVs.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I think low to mid double digit leads
    for both is probably where reality is.

    [ Parent ]
    Gillibrand has a huge lead, too...
    57%-31%

    One caveat, though... this is a poll of registered voters...  Why Siena didn't go to a likely voter model like they have for the congressional races is beyond me, but that's the situation right now...


    [ Parent ]
    Who the flip is still using a registered voter poll in September
    Honestly the best gem is at the end.  

    "All surveys are of registered voters except for the polls of September and October 2008 and September and
    October 2006, which are polls of likely voters."

    So you could do a likely voter poll in 2006 and 2008 but not this year.


    [ Parent ]
    Pollsters used to wait until October to go to LVs
    anyway there is no way the LV/RV contrast would make such a big difference--I think the other pollsters got too much of the post-primary bounce. Siena polled Wed-Thurs night of last week but then waited until Sunday to resume. Probably a smart idea and a more telling result.

    [ Parent ]
    Siena's usually the gold standard, but a RV model this late? Really?!
    If you convert these to a LV model, you'll probably find Gillibrand up about 13. So, between this, Ras (10% lead), SurveyUSA (1% lead), and Quinnipiac (6% lead), you, in all likelihood, have Gillibrand up by about 8-10% among LV. Meaning, it's probably a Lean Dem race, unless Marist can show Gillibrand up big among LIKELY voters.

    Btw, that Quinnipiac poll shows Schneiderman and Donovan virtually tied. So, at least by their count, the Cuomo coattails mean little.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Yup, It is a disappointment
    I'm convinced that Siena knows how to do better.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not that late
    It used to be October before most pollsters went to LVs.

    [ Parent ]
    Al Gore campaigns for Ralph Nader in Florida...
    Meek can't win, but he can play spoiler to elect Rubio.  Brilliant idea - Clinton and Gore are working to see Jeb Bush acolyte get elected.  And who says American politics isn't all Kabuki...

    Charlie Crist, the Lieberman of 2010
    No way is he going to be a reliable Democratic vote.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

    [ Parent ]
    Who cares at this point for 2010
    Especially with 39 year old Rubio as the GOP nominee.  He could be there forever, or worse.

    [ Parent ]
    Crist
    You Dems don't want Crist - he's a political prostitute and not worth the price of the ride.  At least the GOP isn't afraid to take a chance and go for their people (Buck, Miller, Paul, etc) even if the odds are that it will cost them a seat or two (O'Donnell).  Dems would be much happier with Meek as Sen - Crist will just give heartburn.  How do you expect to get what you want if you won't take a chance or two?  Granted, Meek would be an uphill fight, but Crist has no path to victory now.  Support the guy who believes what you do, don't sell out.  If I were liberal, I'd so be pushing Meek the same way I'm now pushing Rubio and not Crist.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    We're a Big Tent, your party is is a bunch of narrow-minded extremists......
    That's the difference.  We don't demand purity, we allow a competition of ideas and differences of opinion within our party.  That's how a majority is built and sustained.

    So yes we'll take Charlie Crist.  He's a finger in the GOP's eye, not in ours.  We won't expect him to be a loyal member of the Caucus, we'll just expect him to vote with us 60-70% of the time, which is 60-70% more than what we know we'll get from Rubio.

    And we'll trust Crist no less than Lieberman, who we distrust but still keep because we have a larger sense of history and always remember having him on our side even only nominally helped get health care reform done, and much else.

    You guys might get the House this time, but only narrowly, and we're going to get it right back in 2012 because you have too many purists who swing voters won't stick with for long.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Big Tent
    I'm a Big Tent guy myself and have not been happy with some of the purity tests that have been imposed in GOP circles.  I think going hard conservative in states like DE (or RI, where a crazy dickhead named Laffey challenged a sitting GOP senator from the right) is just stupid and self-destructive.  Bit FL is a swing state - if you are only going to run progressive/liberals in deep blue states, you are going to have all sorts of heartburn.

    Now, it would be stupid of Dems to primary Nelson up there in Nebraska, but FL is different.  You have a shot, so take it.

    Fwiw, I started this cycle supporting Crist, but the way he started acting when he was challenged turned me off and I switched to Rubio.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22


    [ Parent ]
    Big tent
    Thats why Lieberman was kicked out over only 1 issue.

    [ Parent ]
    Except he wasn't. He's still in the Democratic Caucus, voting with his party...
    ...on every floor vote in the 111th Congress.  And this not only after he lost his last primary, but also endorsed the Republican for President in the last election.

    All those CT Republicans voted for him in 2006 because of Iraq.  Now they have buyer's remorse, they voted for a Senator who still votes left when the rubber hits the road.

    Contrast all this with, say, if Crist wins in November, and you can bet the GOP Senate Caucus won't take him.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    They shouldn't
    IMO, he stole from them. He took millions in contributions to his Republican Senate campaign and became an Independent and refused to return that money.  

    [ Parent ]
    While Crist is our best chance
    I admire people who still support Meek. Principles do matter.

    [ Parent ]
    Meek/Crist
    From a purely political point of view, I actually think that Meek has a better shot than Crist.  Both are long shots at this point, but Crist needed Greene to win in order to have a path to victory.  Meek has the institutional Dem support locked up - as well as black voters.  Because Crist tacked so far left, he lost many moderate GOP voters and enabled Rubio to run a mostly positive campaign focusing on solidifying his base.  Because Meek will not collapse like the hapless GOP candidate in CT-Sen 2006, Crist has too small a pool of voters to draw from.  Most voters are not 'strategic' - they will go in and vote Dem if they are hardcore Dems.
    Meek's slim shot comes from a late Crist collapse that sees the Dem voters coming over to him while Crist keeps enough independents and moderate GOPs away from Rubio.  Hard to do, but a better chance that Crist has.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Field's out on CA-Gov (finally)
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

    The former eBay CEO and Brown each have the support of 41 percent of voters, according to the poll, with 18 percent unsure about which candidate to back - that's up from 13 percent in Field's last survey in July.

    no gender gap
    tied among indies

    Whitman leading in LA County 41/38
    Brown leading in Bay area 64/24


    I don't see Whitman winning LA County,
    but I guess anything is possible.

    [ Parent ]
    Me neither, but crosstabs are unreliable. I would love to know...
    ...how big that subsample is.  Yes LA County is big, but so is everywehre else in the state.  Hell, the City of San Diego by itself has over a million people, and no one thinks about San Diego.

    I bet the margins of error are pretty high on the regional subsamples.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yup, they would be
    Here's the PDF report -- http://www.field.com/fieldpoll...

    The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed September 14-21, 2010 among a random sample of 857 registered voters, of whom 599 were considered likely to vote in California's upcoming general election. In order to cover a broad range of issues and minimize respondent fatigue, some of the questions in this survey were asked of a random subsample of 316 likely voters.

    They have LA County as 24% of CA, so depending on the question, the subsample there would be either 150 or 79 voters. Eyeballing the chart, that's about a 8-11 point MoE for the subsample.


    [ Parent ]
    It's awfully late for 18% undecided!......
    I think it's apparent both candidates are disliked by swing voters.  It's rare to see such high undecideds 6 weeks out in an open-seat Governor's race.

    This poll ultimately is very bad for Whitman.  She hammered Brown on the airwaves unchallenged for a long time, while Brown himself ran a Godawful campaign that anywhere else would leave him down 20 points.  And for all that, it's still a tie.  That bodes poorly for Whitman.

    If Brown wins at all and Boxer wins as comfortably as I think she ultimately will, that gives us a window into the abyss the GOP is facing in Presidential elections another generation from now.  The browning of CA is driving the state ever further left, and the same is happening nationwide albeit more slowly.

    I look forward to the day when only a socially liberal Republican can get elected President.  I would even consider voting for one once in great while, under the right circumstances, partly because serious electoral competition is essential to keeping democracy healthy.

    But right now, the GOP is headed for the edge of the cliff and they don't even know it.  Even if they take the House in November, it ultimately will be fool's gold.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I don't know if its bad for Whitman . . .
    Brown's been around FOREVER.  California knows him very well and if undecided voters aren't already supporting him, there seems little Brown can do to change their minds.  

    Undecideds usually go with the candidate that is less of an "incumbent".  Here that would be Whitman.  And Whitman, unlike someone like Angle, has not come off as an extremist that would alienate undecided centrists.

    Of course, in the end, it comes down to the demographic composition of the undecided bloc.    


    [ Parent ]
    No, Brown is nothing remotely close to an incumbent, NOR is he "well known"......
    In reality a majority of voters are flat-out unfamiliar with Brown coming into this election.  Only the oldest voters remember him at all.  His 2nd-life stints as Oakland Mayor and Attorney General don't give voters any familiarity of him outside Oakland itself.  California does NOT know him well.

    It's true that as a sitting officeholder Brown is closer to "the establishment" than Whitman, but only marginally so.

    At this stage of a campaign, if you've spent over $100 million and your opponent has run a lousy campaign and you're still only tied and sitting at a miserable 41% just 6 weeks out, you're in trouble.  And that properly describes Whitman:  in trouble.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Whitman is hampered somewhat by Ahrnold
    Having a GOP governor with bad poll numbers is helping to keep Brown in this, IMO.  No one seems to be mentioning that lately.

    [ Parent ]
    Brown not well known?
    I can see where you're coming from, but the early 80's aren't exactly ancient history. Let's assume anyone over 50 remembers him as governor. There's also his 1992 presidential campaign to consider, which gives him a little exposure to people in their 30's and 40's now. And finally, being AG isn't like being governor, but most people who are reasonably well-read know who their AG is (Martha Coakley, for example, probably had 40-50% name rec here before her Senate run.)

    I agree that he's not like Whitman, who's flooded the airwaves so absolutely everyone knows her name and face, but Brown's history in statewide office gives him better name rec, than say, Loretta Sanchez, a potential statewide candidate who would start off virtually unknown outside of Orange County.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think the Prez run helps at all, and regarding his governorship......
    Yes you'd have to be in your 50s or older to remember Brown as Governor.  But even for older voters, Brown was so long ago that their memories of him aren't necessarily so great, nor do they necessarily apply their faded image of Brown those years to today's Brown.

    And yes A.G. gives SOME name rec, but frankly it's not that much unless you actually had a highly-publicized agenda or event (i.e., major trial?) that people recognize.

    And I agree of course Brown is much better-known than any U.S. Representative save Pelosi.

    But that does not add up to Brown being "well-known."

    And building on a point in my subject line, I don't think anyone remembers much of anything about his 1992 Prez run.  He had been out of office a long time by that point, and it's now a long time ago that it happened.  And Brown never got remotely close to challenging for the nomination.

    Brown running again is NOT like Terry Branstad or John Kitzhaber returning for their old Governorships or Dan Coats trying to win back his old Senate seat.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    So, I presume the Senate #s will be out tomorrow?
    If Whitman prevails in LA County, I have to imagine she's winning this thing. On the flip side, I think she's underperforming among Indies, although I suspect most of the undecideds will ultimately break her way. I still think Whitman and Boxer will win.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Chris Coons
    There are news reports that Coons wrote a paper in college where he called himself a "bearded Marxist".  

    Do people think this will hurt him at the polls?  I'm worried about the consequences.  This may not make Coons less popular in a blue state.  But it could neuter the Dems' ability to criticize O'Donnell's past statements, as they'll be telling us to ignore this college paper at the same time.  It could also galvanize support for O'Donnell.


    He didn't. Well debunked.
    [ Parent ]
    early voting starts today in Iowa
    Democrats have a lead in absentee ballot requests so far, but only a small percentage of the electorate has requested ballots.

    Sink with 7 point lead in Mason-Dixon poll
    And it's a likely voter screen too!
    :D  After keeping her powder dry until the primary, she has really been taking charge of things.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Here in FL,
    you can tell Sink thinks she's in control.  She's mostly positive, with some pretty soft negative ads that dismiss Scott as obsessed with national buzz issues and disinterested in Florida's bread and butter issues.  And Scott just keeps campaigning as if he's running for Senate.  Barack Obama is BAD BAD BAD.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    SUSA has Murray up by 2
    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

    Which, since it's SUSA, confirms the other polls showing her with a larger lead.


    The trend is our friend
    Today, it's Murray 50%, Rossi 48%, a result within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Murray is up 5 points; Rossi is down 4, a 9-point momentum swing to the Democrat.


    [ Parent ]
    ND-AL - More evidence Pomeroy
    closing in on Berg.  Not that I advocate it, but those of you who are fans of the "5% rule" for internal polls will delight in this fact that this is exactly 5% worse than Pomeroy's internal.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    I was about to post that, and that's the best news for Pomeroy in a long time......
    If Pomeroy has real momentum and can recover and win, we're in good shape.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Has Scott polled DE-AL at all this cycle?
    Just curious.

    [ Parent ]
    Nope
    it doesn't exist in his mind. Its only a coincidence that Carney is favored to take this seat for the blue team right?

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    It's a blatant bias, it really is. He tried to make up for it by polling VT-AL where...
    ...his numbers had Welch cruising.  I think that was to try to hide the bias charge without hurting his party, since Welch is safe by all measures and there's no harm to the GOP by showing that in a poll.

    But DE-AL is a Dem pickup, so Scotty doesn't dare help confirm it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    there really should be a book
    on Rasmussen this cycle.  They've done a lot of work and done a lot interesting things, to say the least.

    [ Parent ]
    AR-01: Great ad by Causey.
    If he keeps it up, he could likely win.
    Mind you, I don't approve of a "balanced budget amendment" at all, but I love the chord this ad strikes.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Fiorina
    is on the air trying to portray Boxer as an arrogant Washington politician because of the "Call me Ma'am" incident. Would of been more effective if Fiorina trotted out the same veterans who swift boated Kerry into speaking instead of herself.



    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    "It's the economy, stupid!"
    This is just digging up an old corpse.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    That's not the theme though
    It's that she's been in DC too long and has been wrong for CA for far too long.  It's a message that works in this cycle and I think it'd be a fantastic ad if Carly would be a bit better of a speaker.  She lacks the facial expression to make her speak drive it home.  But I think it's good; that beginning Boxer thing is so awkward to watch every time...  Maybe I'm just a passive aggressive Minnesotan, I could barely get through The Office the first five or six episodes it was so awkward.

    [ Parent ]
    She normally does
    She is a very fun person to watch speak. I enjoy seeing and hearing her speak. However, in this ad, she seems a little dull.

    [ Parent ]
    Eh, I'm not crazy about this ad either...
    Don't get me wrong, it's stuff like this that have kept Boxer's favorables so lukewarm, but there are so many more potent things to hit her on. I also don't get why the final ten seconds are devoted to nothing but a photo of Boxer. They should've either cut it to a 20-second ad or given Fiorina more face time.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Ga-Gov: He's Back!!!! This time Dale Peterson is giving a Rip about Georgia
    Submitted for your viewing pleasure:




    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    Luckily he doesn't have a successful track record.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Can't wait to see what he pulls in 2012
    I can imagine that Dale doesn't care too strongly for President Obama, and that there might be a web ad or two to fire up the Southern Right (not that they're going to need it.)

    I wonder if he'll wade into AL-02, one place where he might actually be able to help a Republican?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Values Voter Convention
    He made some really vile comments over at the Values Voter Convention, referring to the birther conspiracy theory and accusing "Barry" of hating America.  I used to be amused by this guy.  Now I have nothing but contempt for him.

    [ Parent ]
    No surprise, all these teabaggers are racists. They're a reconstituted...
    ...White Citizens Council.

    The Republican Party still embraces every unreconstructed racist in America.  It is slowly becoming their undoing.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    You sound like IHateBush
    n/t

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Dale also made this GOTV video.

    Does it make youall want to roll?

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Creative
     The guy may or may not have been trying to go viral with his original ad for Agriculture Commissioner, but he's obviously realized his appeal to a certain bloc of the Republican Party and is milking that for all it's worth. He's smart, in a way--like I said, look for him to get behind someone in 2012 and cut videos aimed at the red-meat right.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    He did wade into AL-02
    He made a cameo in a Rick Barber ad. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
    Go to around 2:35

    [ Parent ]
    CO-Gov: Why is Maes such a fail whale?
    He calls Tom Tancredo the "illegal immigrant" of this race for jumping in to spoil the GOP ticket.
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!



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