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CO, DE, WI: New CNN/Time Polls

by: James L.

Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 9:40 PM EDT


Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trend lines):

CO-Sen:

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44
Ken Buck (R): 49
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Among registered voters, Bennet has a 47-44 lead.

CO-Gov:

John Hickenlooper (D): 47
Dan Maes (R): 21
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29
Undecided: 1
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Interestingly, a registered voter sample doesn't boost Hickenlooper's score much at all; he scores 48% to Tancredo's 26% under that sample. If only he'd be able to rub off some of his magic on Bennet...

DE-Sen:

Chris Coons (D): 55
Christine O'Donnell (R): 39
Undecided: 2

Chris Coons (D): 37
Mike Castle (R): 55
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Amusingly, CNN/TIME decided to rub some salt into the wounds of the NRSC, finding that Castle would've been dominating right now if only he hadn't been teabagged to death by the brain-dead GOP base. Where Castle dominated among independents and stole 33% of Democrats, O'Donnell loses indies by 7% and only takes 6% of Democrats (while losing 15% of Republicans to Coons). As for the RV numbers, Coons' lead expands to 59-34 without the likely voter screen.

WI-Sen:

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45
Ron Johnson (R): 51
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3%)

The enthusiasm gap is, unsurprisingly, rough here: among registered voters, Feingold leads by 48-46.

WI-Gov:

Tom Barrett (D): 42
Scott Walker (R): 53
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3%)

Barrett even trails among registered voters, though by a slimmer 48-45 margin.

James L. :: CO, DE, WI: New CNN/Time Polls
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All these numbers
Look about right. It's kind of amazing to see Russ Feingold trailing by more than Michael Bennett, but the enthusiasm gap in WI is brutal.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

I think Russ will pull it out
but I know nothing about the WI Dem Party's GOTV capacity.

[ Parent ]
Feingold's own GOTV
Until very recently, rather than buy TV he's put all resources into field offices and canvasses. The State Party's field operation has not yet caught up.

Medical marijuana referendum in Dane County (Madison +) will help drive turnout.


[ Parent ]
and the UW there
Is one of the largest public schools in the country.  That's going to help A LOT.  Thanks for pointing that out!

[ Parent ]
Point it out nuthin'
I started the ball rolling with the County Board of Supervisors to get it on the ballot, eventually by unanimous consent.

Most Dems went for it on the merits, others for partisan turnout. A few republicans and the lone libertarian on the merits as well, with remaining Republicans going along so they wouldn't be targeted over it in the next nominally non-partisan Board election.

I'm expecting over 80% support when it goes to the voters.


[ Parent ]
It's shocking that Delaware is that close
Coons should be winning 70-30.

why? even Biden didn't 70% of the vote


[ Parent ]
Oh yeah?
Well Biden didn't face someone as LAUGHABLY crazy as Christi . . .

Oh, wait.     . . . Never mind.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
The extent of McDonnell's nuttiness wasn't known then.
She was just a Some Dude with an "R" after her name.

[ Parent ]
Ok, so we got the line
Reid and Boxer are pulling their own asses over the line, so we don't need to provide them with GIANT DSCC expenditures. ND, AR, and IN are gone at this point. Feingold has to close his own race before the national party can bail him out (DAMMIT! WHY RUSS OF ALL PEOPLE?!?!?!?) Gillibrand and Schumer I expect will form a tag team and be bankrolling each other to pull herself over the line if this NY closing meme is true.

Final result, HOW (not $, how to spend it) does the DSCC bankroll us to victories in IL, CO, PA, and WV*? And will there be any left for NH, MO, or KY?

*Ok, we know what to do in WV, Manchin has to sell the voters as to why him, why he would be as good of a legislator as he was a governor, if not better since he has to leave one job for he other. We got Raese is sucky, but people vote for people, not against them (otherwise, Reid would have a decisive lead in NV).

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


At this point
I honestly think spending money in NH and MO is a much, much, better use than in Ohio.

I hope the DSCC gets in NH soon, they can really win this.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
Notice I didn't mention OH ;-P


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I think a lot of us agree with that
If OH wasnt such a damn big state, I would want us to match the GOP dollar for dollar here, and then an extra million.

Portman got fucking lucky.


[ Parent ]
He voted against wallstreet reform.


[ Parent ]
DSCC isn't spending here in Nevada.
Reid and Boxer are pulling their own asses over the line, so we don't need to provide them with GIANT DSCC expenditures

I haven't seen any DSCC ads here, and so far I haven't heard of any in California.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
how much did they push these respondents?
the number of undecideds deems low, for this early.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

It's not THAT early anymore, it's just 6 weeks, and a likely voter screen will do that......
You should get lower undecideds among likely voters than registered voters.  Sometimes not, and sometimes the difference is small, but low undecideds isn't so shocking.

And 6 weeks isn't that long, not when the ads already have been flying for awhile like they have been in these most competitive races.

Democratic voters have to wake up in these states for our candidates to have a real shot, Coons obviously excepted.

All of a sudden I've been feeling this week slightly BETTER about the House, but worse about the Senate.  Thank God O'Donnell beat Coons, or we'd be really hurtin' right now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Toomey edges Sestak in the Philly burbs
Unless Sestak turns that around, that's the race. Likewise Buck vs. Bennet in Colorado's Denver burbs. It's surprising how similar those races are.

Meanwhile, Coons actually loses to O'Donnell outside of New Castle county. Not to worry though!


Oops
I'll just leave my comparative point, then.  

[ Parent ]
It's okay
I just didn't want people to think we glossed over that poll.

[ Parent ]
Was definitely looking for something better
from CO, that margin is not what I wanted.


Really surprised there isn't much of an anticoattail effect in CO
I guess Maes and Tancredo are fighting for the same base, but would it be presumptuous to assume that one of them sinks soon, meaning their combined vote won't exceed Hickenlooper's?  If Maes starts flagging (and 24k in the bank is a good indication of that), it's unlikely that all his votes go to Tancredo, and it may well be what's needed to pull Bennett out of his hole.  I imagine the Hickenlooper/Buck voters aren't particularly prevalent in any case, so Bennett's relying heavily on depressed Republican turnout and strong Hickenlooper coattails.

Maes and Bennet are in different races
This is one state where I think the Senate contest is the marquee event, with the governor's race all academic from here on in. Buck is really the flag-bearer for the Colorado GOP this year, and conservatives are going to come to the polls primarily for him, not for Maes or Tancredo.

I think there could certainly be a substantial amount of Buck/Hickenlooper voters: right of center folks who show up to vote for Buck, shake their head at the gubernatorial mess, and decide what the heck, I'm gonna vote Hickenlooper so I can say I voted for the winner.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
The converse of that is why bother to show up in the first place
I don't know what the media attention is like in Colorado right now, but nationally it almost seems like the Senate race is low key relative to the Gov race.  If a similar dynamic plays out I could imagine depressed Republican turnout being the case.

[ Parent ]
NY
I'm very worried that Q will show Gillibrand losing and Schumer in a race tomorrow.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Twitter . . .
says that Gillibrand-DioGuardi will be close.  But I suspect that Gillibrand will be leading by high single digits.  

[ Parent ]
Where did you happen to find that golden nugget?
Can you spare a link for a fellow swingnut? ;-)

[ Parent ]
SUSA Poll
Is going to show a 1 point lead for Gillibrand. Don't know about Quinnipiac.

I'm not sure I buy her lead is that low, but it's obvious that she's not that strong right now. Not as strong as Schumer and Cuomo anyway.


[ Parent ]
The internals are finally out
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

DioGuardi up 13 with men, Gillibrand up 14 with women - a 27-point gender gap. DioGuardi up 12 with white voters, 7 with Indies. Gillibrand has a 19-point lead in NYC (which is hardly spectacular), but DioGuardi's up 12 on her upstate home turf.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Oh, and DioGuardi's peeling off a fifth of Democrats
Gillibrand, to her credit, is siphoning-off 15% of Republicans.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
.
... omfg. A 65-28 lead for DioGuardi among young voters? HOW is that possible?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
It's SUSA....
...and remember, it's a likely voter poll of only landlines, so mostly conservative youth are answering and included.

[ Parent ]
I thought polling companies had built in
adjustments to account for cell-phone only voters. Because without those adjustments, they are under-counting minorities and young voters both who are more likely to only have a cell phone.

[ Parent ]
.
Yes, I know.

Even considering your point, these results still seem wild.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Honestly
WTF IS GOING ON IN NEW YORK?????  I hate to be so dramatic but we had a safe D governor's race and a safe D senate seat and all of a sudden they are both affectively tied???? Survey USA and Quinnipiac can't both be way off, this just sucks, another senate seat to worry about.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
Actually, yes they can.
SUSA's wacko numbers speak for themselves.

And like I've said before on PPP, even more reputable pollsters like Quinnipiac aren't perfect.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Paladino and DioGuardi can really help each other
Paldino is crushing Cuomo in Western NY but is barely winning Upstate and the suburbs, while DioGuardi is doing very well in the latter two but seems unknown in WNY. If they can merge their coalitions--Paladino's western supporters break just as strongly for JDG and DioGuardi's eastern/suburban supports come around to crazy Carl, both these races are winnable for the GOP.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Sure, but don't expect these two to campaign
It doesn't seem like DioGuardi, a mainstream, rank-and-file conservative (who - OMG - believes in global warming), is too fond of the daffy, Tea Party Paladino.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Again, it's SUSA...
So who knows what the real numbers are?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
The big problem: bad turnout model, too many conservatives & not enough liberals......
The 2006 exit poll for NY had 28L-22C, while the 2008 exit poll had 31L-25C.  Obviously the rest were moderates, and they went heavily Dem.

SUSA has conservatives virtually matching moderates in the mid-30s and liberals down at 20%, with 9% declining to respond to the question on ideological ID.

SUSA is picking up a MASSIVE enthusiasm gap that's not been seen since exit polls became easy to obtain.

As a point of historical comparison, I managed to unearth the 1992 NY exit poll, and it showed 25C-23L with over half calling themselves moderates.  The state certainly has moved left, and that was an era when D'Amato was winning and right before Pataki beat Mario Cuomo, so it makes sense.

I just don't buy the SUSA topline.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I can almost fathom the topline...
I know plenty of progressives/liberals (mostly Working Families Party types) who aren't fond of Cuomo and don't plan to vote. There is some enthusiasm for Eric Schneiderman, but not enough to actually bother voting. Conservatives, on the other hand, will GOTV big time. DioGuardi is loved by downstate conservatives, Donovan has support from the NYC Bloomberg base, and Paladino is even more beloved by the upstate Tea Party crowd.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Here's the thing I question in your comment......
"Conservatives...will GOTV big time."

Are they even capable of doing that?  The state GOP is a disaster, they can't really do it.  Who is going to do it?  Field requires tangible infrastructure that New York Republicans don't have.  Even the WFP might have a stronger field organization than the state Repubs!...but they just have small numbers compared to the GOP.

New York Republicans are counting on organic voter interest from their base.  And they'll get plenty, I'm now sure, but it won't be an adequate substitute for real field.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
In general, conservatives have less need for GOTV
While a good field operation helps both sides, it's especially important for Democrats. People who are most affected by strong GOTV operations--college students and inner-city residents--vote overwhelmingly Democratic but may not show up to the polls if not "reminded" by a good field operation.

The Republican base, on the other hand, is suburban/exurban and rural, and tends to be older as well. It's harder to reach these people than students/urbanites with a field operation, but they tend to be better informed and more likely to vote in the first place. In addition, the nature of the cycle has the poltical right fired up, and we've already seen in the primaries that the Tea Partiers show up in large numbers for their candidates.

This is why there is such a gap between RV and LV samples in most states. The Republican base in generally already engaged and ready to go to the polls, while the Democratic base needs a little push to get out and vote.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Why the heck do you say that?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Because the governor's race
with Cuomo was surprisingly close, so the thinking is Gillibrand could be even closer, although Dioguardi didn't really get as much exposure as Palladino when he won the primary. Palladino got a PR boom with his blowout of Lazio.

[ Parent ]
Update. Wow . . .
SurveyUSA has the New York Senate races as a dead heat, with Gillibrand up by only one.  http://www.wgrz.com/news/local...  

[ Parent ]
Gillibrand, an upstate New Yorker, losing everywhere except NYC?
Also, I remember that NY-20 poll showing her with a 62% approval in her old district and I'll bet it's also pretty good elsewhere in NY (with the exception of Lee's district, of course).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Approvals seem to matter little anymore..
Feingold has very positive approvals in WI even now...

[ Parent ]
Well . . .
until a few years ago, upstate NY (outside of Albany and Buffalo) tended to lean very GOP.  Perhaps in this environment upstaters are returning to old voting patterns.  But both Paladino and DioGuardi seem way outside the comfort zone of upstate (relatively moderate)GOP voters.  I suspect that once upstaters learn more about these two, the Dem leads will expand.

The Dems are lucky that Lazio isn't running against Gillibrand.  In this cycle, he may have been able to win.  


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't count on it..
"I suspect that once upstaters learn more about these two, the Dem leads will expand."

The only type of Goopers who have been the governors of Ohio have been moderates, yet the state is about to elect the first ever tebagger (by his account) in Kasich.  It's beyond depressing.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, but NY is still a VERY Dem state
And the Republican candidates are probably going through a bit of a post-primary bump. It'll be really hard for either Paladino or Gillibrand to win without getting a lot of Dem crossovers, and I don't see that happening. (Nationwide, pollsters aren't picking up Dems voting Republicans in any large proportions.)

Still not good, but I think it's important people don't freak out too much about these NY polls yet until things stabilize a bit over the next few weeks.  


[ Parent ]
This is true
By my count, Democrats will make up about 46% of the electorate. So, either DioGuardi needs to run-up about a 20% margin with Indies or siphon-off about 17-20% of Democrats. Looks to me like DioGuardi has a slight edge with Indies and probably has yet to break 10% with Dems.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It's hard to see how she can
win her old CD handily (the NY-20 poll from last week suggested she would) and come close to losing.

At the very least, I know she wont take this race for granted. She never does.  


[ Parent ]
I feel like
Gillibrand is still an unknown throughout much of the state, while DioGuardi might have some name rec from his stint in Congress and his daughter's success. Could lead to Upstate, outside of her CD, going GOP as it is traditionally prone to do, while DioGuardi does better than expected on LI and in the burbs since no one really knows Gillibrand. Lucky for her she has a large bankroll, could make the difference.  

[ Parent ]
Gah.
And I was staring to get optimistic. Murry and Boxer move into clear leads, and O'Donnell blows up the DE GOP's chances. Then we find out Russ is way down, Manchin might be losing, and now Gillibrand is in a dead heat?

I doubt that either she - or Cuomo - will lose, but the last thing we need is an expensive Senate battle in New York, given all the other seats we have to defend.  


[ Parent ]
Welcome . . .
to the political version of wack-a-mole!!  

[ Parent ]
People are PISSED
Every election is different, but this is what a wave looks like IMO.  

[ Parent ]
I think RyanInDelCo's right...
... he may overstate it a bit and I think he's being a little bit too bullish on PA, but while it looks like the Dems are holding up reasonably well in the West and the South, they're really struggling throughout the Midwest/Great Lakes region, where things just seem to be getting worse.  

[ Parent ]
This is where Schumer needs to get generous
The DSCC already has its hands full trying to hold onto PA, CO, WI, and WV, and probably needs to throw some cash into at least a few Republican-held seats like NH, KY, and MO. An expensive NY race is not something any of those races can afford.

Come on, Chuck, spread the love.  


[ Parent ]
Well, that's the key upside with Gillibrand
She has a massive war chest, meaning national Dems need not pump funds into the race. If anything, this creates problems for the national GOP, now teased with the potential of having to pump millions into a state as extensive as NY. It's precisely why so many backed Malpass at the 11-'o-clock-hour - he was prepared to unleash $10M into this thing. You could do a lot worse than DioGuardi (like Blakeman), but he ain't got the necessary dough.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
You're right
I remembered Schumer, but I forgot that Gillibrand's warchest itself was quite big.

To be honest, part of this is probably post-primary bounce and voters first tuning in. I would be fairly shocked if the numbers don't stabilize with at least moderate Dem leads in Gillibrand's race and the Governor's race. But still. Yikes.  


[ Parent ]
Although on second thought...
... couldn't Paladino's millions keep DioGuardi competitive? If he can get his voters to the polls and keep his race close, I'd imagine nearly all of them would vote for DioGuardi. Throw in some Cuomo/DioGuardi votes among NY suburbanites and people who just want to express frustration with DC, and a DioGuardi victory seems just within the realm of possibilities.  

[ Parent ]
Most Cuomo/DioGuardi votes
will come from Italian tribalism.

[ Parent ]
Good point
I think there will be a chunk of moderate Independents who vote a Cuomo/DioGuardi ticket, and, yes, all of the Paladino crowd will flock to DioGuardi over Gillibrand. Still, Gillibrand will probably win 85% of the Cuomo supporters, so she needs to hope Paladino doesn't keep this competitive.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Not so sure about moderate independents
I take the point that DioGuardi isn't like today's Tea Party people, who are in denial of scientific facts, but he was a very strident opponent of abortion rights. I don't think wanting to ban abortion is actually a moderate position. Most people support some restrictions but also giving women a choice in extreme situations. DioGuardi does not - or at least did not, when he was a member of Congress in the 1980s - and has been forthright and principled in saying so.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
SUSA shows Schumer leading by over 20
Schumer will never be in a race, the man knows how to keep his face everywhere.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
1966
Not since 1966 (in South Carolina) has a state simultaneously elected Senators of different parties. It won't happen this year either.

[ Parent ]
Not all that comforting . .
these trends continue until they don't

[ Parent ]
I don't know a bout any of you
But I'm still in utter shock at how insane the Delaware and Colorado GOP voters turned out to be. They kicked a guaranteed Senate seat and at the very least a competitive Gov race (had McInnis dropped out and let someone like Norton jump in) to the curb for no discernible reason. At least to me. But then again maybe I'm not crazy.  I definitely expect Tancredo to out poll Maes in CO.

As for the rest of it, looks like this confirms PPP's results in Wisc. This doesn't bode well for Lassa and Kagan going forward, especially against a couple of strong candidates.


There are no words . . .
for the utter idiocy of the Delaware GOP electorate.  Simply amazing.  

As for Colorado, once the McInnis news came out and Tancredo got in, the GOP was cooked.  Even had McInnis won the primary and withdrew, the GOP replacement (Norton?) would have found herself in an unwinnable three-way race against Tancredo and Hickenlooper.  

As for Wisconsin, Dem worries are not limited to WI-07 (Lassa) and WI-08 (Kagan).  At this rate, they will have to circle the wagons in WI-03 (Kind) as well.  Have there been any recent polls of this race?  


[ Parent ]
You're right
Forgot about Kind, he's been targeted before. Bloodbath for Dems could be shaping up in Wisc if these numbers hold.  

[ Parent ]
CO
To be fair to the GOP in CO, it was sort of out of their hands.  They thought they had a good candidate for Gov until he turned out to be a fraudulent plagiarist (Herbert West would have been very upset with him).  And so the kook won the primary and turned out to be worse!  And he wouldn't drop, no matter what they did to try and make him.  DE, on the other hand, is totally self-inflicted by the voters.  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
I suspect
that it makes no difference to the 'Tea Party' core whether the GOP gets majorities or just blocking minorities.  They don't seem to care about real leadership either.  It's all about venting and obstructing.

As the Jacob Weisberg column in Salon says, they don't have a coherent agenda and it seems they don't actually feel the need for one.  It's all about a negative agenda: just stopping the pain they feel at the society changing and Democratic government legalizing and institutionalizing the major changes.


[ Parent ]
The actual Crosstabs for SUSA
here:

Q: [Candidate names rotated]
If the election for New York Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carl Paladino? Democrat Andrew Cuomo? Or another candidate?
A: Paladino (R) 40% Cuomo (D) 49% Other 8% Undecided 3%
Q: [Candidate names rotated]
New York will also elect two United States Senators. In the first US Senate election, for a 2-year term ... If the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Joe DioGuardi? Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand? Or another candidate?
A: DioGuardi (R) 44% Gillibrand (D) 45% Other 8% Undecided 4%

Q: [Candidate names rotated]
In the second US Senate election, for a full 6-year term ... If the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Jay Townsend? Democrat Chuck Schumer? Or another candidate?
A: Townsend (R) 33% Schumer (D) 54% Other 10% Undecided 3%

Q: Is your opinion of Carl Paladino ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Carl Paladino?
A: Favorable 35% Unfavorable 31% Neutral 21% No Opinion 13%

Q: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Andrew Cuomo?
A: Favorable 47% Unfavorable 27% Neutral 23% No Opinion 4%

Q: Which of these issues is currently the most important one facing New York State?
A: Jobs 38% Taxes 27% Health Care 8% Government Spending 13% Public Corruption 7% Business Friendly 5% Other 2%



Young voters show up unusually R
That's a feature of wacky SUSA. Nevertheless. . .

[ Parent ]
Young
I wonder if some of those are AI fans?  Should DioGuardi use his daughter in an ad or on the stump with him?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Twitter rumors about the Siena poll...
It will include Rick Lazio (as the others should have).  It will be a registered voter only poll (which would be inconsistent with their recent polling which have been all LV's).

Take with as many grains of salt as you wish!


WI Sen, Gov Polling error
Polling just registered voters here introduces pro-Republican bias, due to our at the polls registration. Real elections include many more 1st-time young voters. In 1992, my downtown Madison precinct recorded "112% turnout," as the registrants outnumbered previously registered no-shows.

Medical Marijuana referenda in Dane County (Madison) and River Falls will boost these 1st time numbers.


I count on you for on the ground info, Ben
But I think it's pretty clear that Russ is in trouble.  

[ Parent ]
He needs to score big in debates,
but that's always been his strength.

[ Parent ]
Has Johnson...
actually agreed to debate Russ, or is he pulling the Angle/Paul/O'Donnell strategy of running away from actual reporters and debates?

[ Parent ]
OK, so Q-poll has Gillibrand doing the SAME as Cuomo....does not pass sniff test......
That just doesn't make sense.  Everyone in the world agrees Cuomo will substantially outperform Gillibrand.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
......oh, but I'm not complaining, Gillibrand by 6 makes me happy given I assumed this would say dead heat. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That's a relief....
I thought that they might even have the Gooper leading, but I imagine if that was the case, the bad news would have been leaked out last night... Whew! I haven't gotten much sleep lately.  Interesting that Gillibrand's performance in this poll is better than her RV support number in her last poll.

Siena poll is out at 9:30 am supposedly.  


[ Parent ]

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