Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 5:45 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he's a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it's about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO'VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: "This was back in the '90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now." (Uh huh... when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

• DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O'Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they're saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can't withdraw the complaint... the complaint against their own nominee.

• NC-Sen: And now it's Richard Burr's turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y'know, was behind that expansion.

• NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston's tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

Roy Barnes (D): 41
Nathan Deal (R): 45

Michael Thurmond (D): 33
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4%)

While this isn't as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal's financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there's no sense of whether things have tightened.

• RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses' union backing yesterday.

• AZ-05: There's a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona's 5th that founds its way across someone's desk at the Hill. It's from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That's kind of pushing the limits on when it's a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC's ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he's still right in the thick of things.

UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn't their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell's up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that's slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

• LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Cedric Richmond (D): 45
Joe Cao (R): 35
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here's the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn't going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.  

• MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz's stance on "uniting people" but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor's race.)

• PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

John Callahan (D): 38 (33)
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)
Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)
Undecided: 10 (22)
(MoE: ±5%)

John Callahan's one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he's got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

• NRSC: Here's an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.

• SSP TV:
• IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises
• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan's attack ads
• NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and "end our promise to our veterans"
• IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that "hey, Iowa's not that bad off compared to all those other states"
• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez's ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days
• SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen's TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks
• OH-16: The DCCC's newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% "fair tax" and on his own pile of back taxes owed
• OR-05: Kurt Schrader's newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran
• TN-08: Roy Herron's newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans
• WI-07: Julie Lassa's newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA's office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job

• Rasmussen:
• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%
• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

• Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%
• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 39%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%
• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition)
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition) | 171 comments
Cha-cha Chachas won't go anywhere...
Mark my words. He hasn't lived here in Nevada since he was a kid, and he clearly lacked either the establishment support or the teabagger support to go anywhere in the primary. At this point, IF Ensign steps down, it could be a Dean Heller vs. Sue Lowden vs. Danny Tarkanian battle royale. Baby Tark is clearly trying to woo Sharrontology's teabaggers onto his side. Lowden is trying to make peace with the GOP's new rabblerousers taking charge. And Heller is just hoping the other two will make jokes out of themselves and each other yet again.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
Is there a special election?
Or will the Gov name Ensign's replacement that will sit until 2012?

Who would the Dems have to run for the seat? Any bench?

[ Parent ]
Appointment, no special election...
Whoever wins the Governor's race this year may very well pick Ensign's replacement if he gets convicted on a "Mistress-gate" related crime. But again, that's IF there's a conviction before 2012. I don't see Ensign resigning any time soon, and so far it looks like the GOP Establishment here has an uphill climb in convincing Ensign to retire. (Just earlier this year, he said he WANTS to run again in 2012!)

So far on the Dem side, all the chatter has been about NV-01 Rep. Shelley Berkley. She's been "touring" more of the state recently, and she's been building up her profile statewide. So far Dina Titus (NV-03) has taken a pass, deciding instead to focus on her own race this year.  Years ago the rumor was that Harry Reid wanted to see his son Rory follow his same trajectory up to Congress, but Rory threw it all off when he ran for Clark County Commission in 2002 and his current campaign for Governor confirms he'd rather do his own thing. The only other person seriously rumored for this gig was Ross Miller, but now it seems he'd rather "wait in the wings" just in case Rory doesn't win this fall.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Ensign
Just started fundraising for 2012. I think his siutation is worse than Vitter's though. Vitter is a Republican in a red state in a midterm Republican year. ensign is a Republican in a swing state in a presidential year. He is much more vulnerable to a primary challenge and general election loss.  
[ Parent ]
Again, depends on those indictments...
If they actually happen soon and somehow he's forced to step down, it opens up the field for Heller, Lowden, and others. If not, then Ensign will fight his way through the primary and "the powers that be" in this state (i.e. the casinos & mining conglomerates) will have to decide whether to stick with him or get Heller to primary him a la Gibbons. There's no way Lowden tries to primary Ensign (she's WAY too close to him), and "the powers that be" are simply annoyed with Baby Tark.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
If its not Heller or Lowden
I wonder who it would be? Chahcas spent millions of dollars to finish with only like 4%. I guess they'd go to Jon Porter or state GOP chair Mark Amodei, who ran this year, but dropped out b/c of lack of funds.  
[ Parent ]
Ensign CANNOT win in November, he'd be toast. The turnout model...
...would be prohibitive.  Per the exit poll the non-white vote share spiked to 32% in 2008, and it will be at least that high in 2012 and likely a little higher.  Non-white voters were "just" 23% in 2004, so you see where things are headed in Nevada, and the entire change in 2008 was an increase of Latino vote share from 7% to 15% of the total.  Ensign is too unpopular to make up for that with the needed share of white votes.

Really, the demographic math makes it tough for ANY Republican.  The Nevada GOP is smart to run Sandoval for Governor, who can survive the change this year and 4 years from now.  But Ensign can't.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What is your view on the Reid campaign currently?
Any positive momentum in recent days?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It was rough & tumble for a while...
Angle tried to shift discussion to immigration. And she was hoping today's vote would be all about the DREAM Act. However, I think today's narrative on DADT made that backfire on her. And all the chatter on the defense funding bill opens up more criticism like this:

So we'll have to see what happens in the coming days. Republicans were hoping this week would be a boon for them, but I think it may very well backfire on them.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
seriously?
Im going to miss Angle after EDay, no one else in the United States of America would suggest privatizing the VA but her.
[ Parent ]
I won't!
I hope she leaves our fine state. Do you want Angle? If so, then she's all yours! :-p

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't wish Angle on any state in the union
You guys in Nevada need to take one for the team and keep her there!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Dude, Angle is GOD'S GIFT to Nevada, she single-handedly is reelecting Harry Reid and...
...you need to help her win the Republican nomination for whatever is your top priority every 2 years!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Tim Walz
Tim Walz also voted against TARP and the auto bailout I believe so whether or not you disagree with those votes it has to give him a little street cred with some moderate independents you would think.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

If I was the NRSC, I'd, instead of dumping millions
into Sharron Angle's campaign, just give a free two-months trip, all expenses paid, to a nice Carribean Island to Harry Reid's communcations and messaging team.

That would cost less money and be more effective, since I can't believe that Harry 'Piede in bocca' Reid thought of this ads or even of the general messaging idea/campaign strategy himself.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

Actually, he has...
Reid has a LONG history of outsmarting his opponents here in Nevada. And at the very least, one must give him credit this cycle for hiring the best and brightest to run what's probably the smartest Senate campaign of 2010. And if you don't believe me, read up on longtime Nevada pundits like Jon Ralston, Steve Sebelius, and Anjeanette Damon and all their observations of the goings on at "Planet Harry".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Meh
I like Reid and I am in the progressive minority of approving of his performance as majority leader but he is barely polling even with Sharron freaking Angle. He has improved in the polls but had Lowden or Tark won the primary I think he would likely be DOA. Reid is just plain and simply lucky in my view.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
These numbers don't lie...

(I only filtered out the redundant Razzy/Fox polls. Everything else, including Razzy's main firm polls, was kept in.)

He was considered "dead". Now he's ahead.

The only reason this is close is because Karl Rove and his minions have spent millions over the years to make Reid "toxic". Any other pol would have lost in these circumstances. (Look at Feingold's troubles in Wisconsin, for example.) Reid couldn't have won on luck alone, but I do agree with you that he was helped immensely by the teabaggers screwing their own pooch in embracing Angle.

Still, Lowden and Tark weren't top quality recruits, either. Lowden just happened to be "the best of the worst".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
What's really interesting about those polls
Angle's numbers haven't moved that much (they've clearly dropped, but not all that much) it's Reid's numbers that have clearly increased, I suppose that his barrage of negatives against her has clearly helped him among undecideds.

I'll say Lowden wasn't a top quality candidate I'm still waiting for my flu shot, I sent the doctor two chickens and a goat!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
How does that square with being so totally
inept at communicating as Majority Leader? I don't think he's done a bad job as Majority Leader policywise and with regards to keeping his Caucus together, but PR has been a mess. Not to begin with his personal gaffes, which have been numerous.

So I can't really believe that someone who's such a bad communicator suddenly turns into a PR genius from time to time and then goes back to being a gaffe machine.

And I don't really give him credit for hiring the best and brightest. He's lots of cash and brings the pork home because he is the Senate Majority Leader. That's what keeps him alive.


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
He's brilliant behind the scenes...
That's how Reid works, and that's how he gets stuff passed. He's someone who likes to work behind the scenes.

He's not one to bask in the media spotlight. He doesn't have the kind of "aura of excitement" that Obama has. And yes, he's never been a great public speaker.

But then again, there are great public speakers and "rock stars" in the Senate that don't actually accomplish much. Reid's the opposite.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
then move the hell over
and let someone else speak for us on camera.  Let him be the whip who hunts down votes where his style is more adept and let a talker be on camera.
[ Parent ]
So
these pulse polls, can anyone buy them. Could I just fork out $600 and have anything I wanted polled? I am actually tempted, I would love to see some IN-09 numbers and that seems like a great price. Funny though how Rasmussen contradicts itself as the regular rass poll has Boxer +4 but the pulse only has her +1.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
It's actually $1,500, but yeah.
And I don't think it'll get any cheaper than that, since even for a poll of 500 they have to make thousands, if not 10,000+x calls.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Hmm....
I don't know why I thought $600. I doubt I do it but I can still dream. That is very affordable though, I have never heard of polls going that low before.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
RAS
I read it was $600 somewhere too.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
yup, we all definitely did

[ Parent ]
I think I read something about $600 too.
But if you check their website, it says $1,500.
Can't imagine it would be $600 either, I'm not sure that would even cover their expenses.
BTW, Pulse existed before Rasmussen bought it, they haven't changed their prices or website design or anything after that.

http://www.pulseopinionresearch.com

Then there's Precision Polling, which is even more basic: They just provide the electronics, you write the questions and even record them yourself. So it'd be good if you had some kind of actor or so, but at least on Kos there should be someone professional and willing, I guess.

They charge 10c per call, if you calculate with a response rate of roughly 5%, that would be $2 per interview. Of course there's some variance around that, response rates may be higher or lower than 5%, but that's the ballpark.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Oh, and they're at
www.precisionpolling.com
A January 2010 diary on Kos from me on them and similar pollsters is at http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/1/30/832269/-A-revolution-in-polling-businessmaybe-for-DailyKos,-too.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Development in WV-01
Would you vote for a Congressional candidate who called the President by a racial slur? Heard that Republican candidate for #WV01 called Pres. Obama N-word at a campaign event: a word on WV-01 at WVaBlue.com
Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. in trouble
It's really time
for him and ESPECIALLY Bobby Rush to go.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
It was time for Rush to go...
...the second he made that crazy speech supporting Burris in that whackjob press conference that Burris held.  
[ Parent ]
Not possible
Even Obama couldn't touch Rush

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
As an erstwhile resident of IL-01
...who will also be living there from September 2011 to June 2012, I have to say that I am not looking forward to being represented by Bill Brady, Bobby Rush, and (god forbid) Mark Kirk all at the same time. Illinois voters, why do you do this to me?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Guess this kinda puts a wrench
In his mayoral bid.  
[ Parent ]
Cong Jesse Jackson Jr in deep sh*t
I think you understated the matter. SSP will soon be moving this one from Safe Dem to MUCH LESS SAFE.
[ Parent ]
With all due respect,
What the hell are you talking about?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
With more respect than due ...
Apparently you didn't bother to follow the link in a comment above mine. Here is how Charles Thomas put it ...

September 21, 2010 (CHICAGO) (WLS) -- Illinois Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. faces possibly damaging allegations that put his political career in jeopardy.

First, there are reports of new evidence linking him to a plan to purchase the U.S. Senate seat vacated by President Obama.

Jackson, Jr. also says he's sorry for disappointing people by having a relationship with a female acquaintance named Giovana Huidobro.

...

It does not get much worse than this for a U.S. congressman on the ballot for re-election six weeks from Tuesday who also might want to run for mayor of Chicago five months from now.

He still has not been charged with any criminal offense, but politically, Jesse Jackson, Jr. is in a world of trouble.

[ Parent ]
Yes, maybe JJJ's Republican opponent will break into double-digits
Hell, he might even break 20 if he's taking his steroids!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Who is talking about his re-election?
We talking about Jesse Jackson Jr

facing criminal charges relating to the Senate-seat buying investigation,

admitting to an affair,

and how these matters could affect his ambitions to run for Mayor of Chicago.

[ Parent ]
Jackson in trouble at home, too
According to the Sun-Times, Huidobro is a hostess at a Washington, D.C. nightclub where Congressman Jackson, Jr. reportedly has held fundraisers. Jackson, Jr.'s mistress was revealed on the front page of the daily newspaper hours before his politician wife's birthday party.  
[ Parent ]
Interesting Dance
On the Democratic offense seats, DCCC thought Seals was okay, and pulled back. RNCC moves in. Will be interesting to see if RNCC spends in LA-2.
Joe Miller Taking Advantage of Climate Change at Farm
The big news about Joe Miller is that he was able to farm ANYTHING near Fairbanks.  But, conditions are improving!

http://www.adn.com/2010/08/01/...

----------------------------------------------------

FAIRBANKS -- Researchers say higher temperatures have given Alaska a longer growing season.

According to the Alaska Climate Research Center, Fairbanks is 2 1/2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer and 11 percent drier than it was 100 years ago.

The changes have stretched the growing season from 85 days in the early 20th century to 123 days.

---------------------------------------------------

Maybe time to put down some cash on this great business opportunity, but according to Joe Miller, his crops aren't REALLY growing...  

CO-Gov: Dan Maes Only Raises $14k in the first two weeks of September
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
If you were a Republican
[ Parent ]
No
As much as it pains me to say this, I have no choice but support Tancredo.  
[ Parent ]
But would you give money to EITHER of them?
If you want to back a Republican in need of cash who has an actual shot at winning, I can think of plenty of other races to invest in.  Right here in my home state of Indiana, you could give to Marlin Stutzman, who's getting crushed in the money race but will still probably win.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Or
If you're from Colorado, give to Ken Buck.  Or Scott Tipton.  Both guys who have an actual shot at winning.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Is it just me, or has a lot of bad news for dems come out today?
First Feingold, who no one had on their radar, is down by double digits, the another seat we expected to hold in WV comes into question with Manchin down by 3.  Then WA-09 has somewhat dismal numbers for smith in a D+5 districts.

The only silver lining is that Brown and Boxer seems to be in good shape against their CEO opponents.

Message to the rest of the country, California dems are doing their part, dems in OH, NH, MO and WI need to do theirs.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

feingold
was on everyone's radar...

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Ask me even last week if WI was in trouble
I would have said not in the slightest.

I may have not been looking at WI, but I would suspect many not to be looking at it either.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Then you haven't been looking very well. Wisconsin has been rated a lean Dem/toss-up by most everybody for 3-4 months, and polls have shown Johnson tied or 1-2% ahead of Feingold for a while as well.
[ Parent ]
Would you or any other California SSP members mind
commenting on how the yes/no vote on prop 19 looks? Really interested in the national political implications that could bring.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I probably have a skewed perspective because I go to college in San Francisco
But it seems to me that it will probably pass, not by much, but it will pass.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I would agree
but I go to high school in the bay area, so same thing here.  I'd predict it passes narrowly as well, but the one group you don't want to rely on is stoners.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
I predict it fails by four points
The brown-black majority in CA will be solidly against it in the end. Liberal "minorities" and the liberal white "majority-minority" together won't be enough against conservative whites and conservative blacks, browns and Asians.
[ Parent ]
I could see AAs and Hispanics voting against it, but not solidly
Laws criminalizing drugs have always hurt those two communities a lot more than other communities (even when they aren't blatantly racist like the crack/cocaine laws).

I could see AAs being against it 60-40 and Hispanics against it maybe 55-45 (though I think that the Hispanic vote will actually be slightly in favor of it).  

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Drug abuse has hurt those communities a LOT more than criminalization, so you're mistaken...
...in assuming criminalization is the primary driver in minority community voting on this item.

Black voters are suspicious of the criminal justice system, for very good reason, but they WANT crime and drugs brought under control in their communities and want the body politic to address those problems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
I still think it could be closer in minority areas than what is suggested, but that's definitely an excellent point you raised.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Heroin and cocaine, yes (and alcoholism)
Has marijuana abuse been so injurious to those communities?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Prohibition leads to gang control, which leads to violent crime
This is the winning argument for Prop 19, and appears in the ballot guide being mailed to voters this week.  The only way it can lose is if it doesn't get fully aired (and it very well may not - Prop 8 passed for a similar reason).

If the domestic example of 1919-33 is too far removed (and it shouldn't be, looking at the present crop of movies and TV shows) perhaps the endorsement of former Mexican President Vicente Fox might have an impact, particularly on the Mexican-American vote.

[ Parent ]
For what its worth the California NAACP
is backing prop 19 though i would'nt say there nearly as influential these days. I'm skeptical of the racial split though i think it will be more generational as younger people seem to seperate marijuana from other drugs while older people seem to view them all as equally dangerous.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Actaully conservatives spilt on this.
Social cons are against it while some tea party economic/libertarian conservatives support legalization.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
[ Parent ]
Well, we can see what side a majoriety of the CA GOP is on (The social con side)
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

30% of Republicans support [Prop 19] with 57% opposed.

This is telling, and confirmed what I have long believed, it seems to me that libertarians sacrifice their values when they vote for republicans, especially in CA.  The only moderate republican I can think of is Abel Maldonado.  He will probably lose to Newsom though.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I don't know
The results of polls on prop 19 depend on whether the poll uses a live interviewer or a machine. People are much more willing to admit to a machine than to another person that they are going to vote to legalize weed.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
VA-05: Robert Hurt Ducks Yet Another Debate.
http://www.perrielloforcongres...
Perriello and the Indie candidate will still be there, of course.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
This will be his fourth missed debate.
All because he  doesn't want the Indie candidate to be present.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Murkowski begins statewide ad campaign.
Both TV and radio.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
FAIL
In one of the ads, they spelled her website LisaMurkski.com
The ad was pulled, but not a good sign for a campaign that is very dependent on spelling her name right!  
[ Parent ]
Apparently that's not true
The Alaska SoS is going to take a very liberal view on voter intent, so if Murcowsky's (:P) name is spelled wrong, it's fine so long as the intention is clear.

And, because I can't help but take this opportunity... In Soviet... well Alaska, names misspell YOU!!! :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Murkowski is such an easy name to spell
It's phonetic! (And not only that, you are correct about the AK DoE not caring about precise spelling.)

As far as Polish surnames go, it's one of the easiest ones to spell imaginable. I said this on Twitter, and I'll say it again: It's not like her name is Wojciechowski or Szczepanski or something.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of...
If Joe the Plumber ran for something as a write-in, I wonder what permutations we'd see:

"Uh... that one dude who says he's a plumber, but he's not!"
"Sam Wor... Wer... Wur goddamn it, Joe the Plumber"
"You bastards..."
"What kind of Socialist plot would make me spell Joe the Plumber's real name?!"
"fuck it i'm going home!!!!"
"Sam the anti-Plumber"
"Male version of Sarah Palin!"

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
In regards to Ried's commet (no intelligible insight)
If O'donnel gets elected (and I pray to god she won't) she would be by far the hottest Senator
Linda McMahon copys Scott Brown JFK ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Scott Brown used the same clip, when Kennedy morphed into him. It was his first ad, and considered a turning point in the race.  
Seems
like every GOP candidate is trying to be the next Scott Brown.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Some Dems too
Many are ripping off his People's Seat line, Dems and Reps. It annoys the shit out of me! Scott Brown ya'll aint!  
[ Parent ]
"scott brown ya'll ain't"
thank god for that.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Burr also complimented the Guv!
He made awesome statements about Bev Perdue at the Cree event that she needs to trot out in 2012 (if he wins again, which looks likely).  Basically gave her a fantastic one-liner:

"This is a great day and a wonderful occasion and I think the governor deserves a lot of credit," Burr said. "Under her leadership we're headed in the right direction from the stand point of re-employment in the state."

Also, as for Miller, I think we're missing the best argument possible: undercutting he and all Tea Partiers on this.  If they want to argue that all these subsidies are unconstitutional now, how come he didn't think so then?  And if he did then, why did he take them?  Yeah, the economy was great under Bill, but thats only part of the argument.  Arguing the constitutionality of the whole thing cuts their entire campaign argument off at the knees.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

Palin endorses Eddie Bernice Johnson's challenger
http://www.facebook.com/note.p...
In the words of Chris Cilliza, on this endorsement, "Um, ok"
Her challenger isn't even a woman. He's an African American minister who's raised about 225k as on June 30.  
Sure, why not?
Republicans have been hyping Star Parker (CA-37) for a while now, so why not another candidate in an 80-20 Dem district?
[ Parent ]
Hey now
You never know when Eddie Bernice-Johnson and Laura Richardson will both eat a dozen puppies while calling for a hearing to denounce George Washington as a Nazi!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Supporting Parker's actually a pretty shrewd move when you think about it
Whitman and especially Fiorina need votes--nothing near a majority, just a substantial block of votes--from Los Angeles. If a local black Republican is spending money and running a field operation in LA/Long Beach, that gives the upticket candidates a new pool of voters to draw upon. Parker is not going to win or even threaten, but running a Some Dude with financial resources is a good way to create something out of nothing in a city like LA.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I could see Parker netting over 30%
Which is actually a pretty steep feat for any GOP-er in this district. National conservatives seem to love this gal.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Yeah
She's got more money than Richardson, and a good profile for the district. I think MassGOP nailed it though. No one thinks she will win, or even make Richardson sweat, but she will help Whitman and Fiorina, in what could be very close races, every little bit helps.  
[ Parent ]
I can't
and I spend a fair bit of time in this district.  The high-water mark for Republicans here is the 25.2% figure from the ultra-low turnout 2007 special election where Richardson first won her seat.  (After a somewhat racially divisive primary with Jenny Oropeza, quite a few Oropeza supporters sat on their hands for the general.  They won't this time.)

National conservatives may love her, but remember, they loved Michael Steele too before he took the RNC "off the hook."

[ Parent ]
Taegan Goddard hypes a poll for tomw
... tweets that an "eye-opening" poll will be released at 6:30am (ET) tomorrow. Wonder what it is?
He gives no more info than that?
Usually at that hour it is a national poll, so it could be one of the major networks polls.  
[ Parent ]
PA-Senate
He tweeted the PA-Governor numbers from Quinnipiac that time this morning so I am guessing he will be tweeting the Senate numbers.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Could be Quinn,
would follow that they would release senate numbers next.  
[ Parent ]
If Teagan's twittering about it I would say it
is bad news for Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe NC Sen
I think PPP polled it this weekend. Marshall lead? Dead heat? I think PA Sen is the best guess though.  
[ Parent ]
It would be nice to think "eye opening"
meant Sestak was closer, but based on the gov numbers it doesn't seem likely.
[ Parent ]
My guess
I am going to guess that Sestak is down 10 to 15 with Obama's approval around 40 or slightly below.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I'm guessing you're right. Toomey has run such a superior campaign to Sestak it's sad......
This could have stayed tossup into November, no matter the sentiment in PA.  I guess Sestak just didn't have the cash to answer right away, and that was that.  I think Toomey won this early, even though the polling is catching up to the messaging disparity only much later.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Who knows
I thought Sestak would pick up steam after Labor day.  I'm shocked he's running pretty much at Onorato levels, as Sestak really should be outpolling Onorato.  He's definitely a superior candidate in the respective race.  

Toomey didn't have to do too much just yet, but looks to have it pretty muched sealed up.  I'm more concerned abotu Corbett.  Republiocan Guv of a big swing state, he could be a presidential contender (or at least VP) in 2016 and lord know which member of the Bush family will be running then :-)

[ Parent ]
Toomey has hammered Sestak on the air for MONTHS, so...
..."not have to do much" isn't true, he worked his ass off to turn a tossup into a clear advantage for himself.

Credit Toomey for running a great campaign.  I despise his politics, but he ran a campaign I can admire.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Toomey hans't been as active as you think
Quite simply rumors of his media domination aren't true.  At least not in Philadelphia they aren't.  

And I don't consider advertisements to be a campaign.  I can't tell you what his positions are and he hasn;t spoken a lot.  I certainly recall hearing WAY more from him back when he challenged Specter from the right and he was more vocal.  He's riding a tide this time and running a very generic campaign.

[ Parent ]
Environment
I think has little to do with their actual campaigns at this point.  The Democratic brand is imploding statewide.  Even if Toomey was kept within a few points, such a Corbett landslide would have dragged him across the finish line anyway.  

Pennsylvania Democrats now need to focus on not losing too many congressional or State House seats.  I would suspect at least 4 congressional and 8 State House seats will be lost based off those numbers.  The upward limit is 6 congressional seats and 15 State House seats.  

The intense nature of the opposition to Obama in the state is just something that cannot be combated.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Couldn't agree more
But I was expecting Sestak to outpoll Onorato which makes me very concerned about PA.

The real irony is that the fate of a few PA house districts is acutally in the hands of the DGA.  If the DGA pulls out and Corbett wins by 15, its vastly worse than if the DGA stays in and Corbett wins by less than 10.  But with TX and FL and GA all more competitive (and more important, to be honest) I see the DGA pulling out in early October.

[ Parent ]
The State House is probably already gone
The Republicans only need three seats to gain control.  It took massive Rendell margins in 2006 to pick up 8 seats.  Holding them in a reverse of 2006 is impossible.  There is way too many open and/or marginal seats for the Democrats to defend against such a wave.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I just don't see it
I don't see twenty years of suburban gains being erased in one election, nor 3 cycles worth of gains in the Lehigh Valley Region. Its not been my experience that suburban voters vote Democratic purely over abortion and other social issues; sorry. I've seen a strong trend in many suburban areas towards more liberal ideology on economics. I don't think they are that pissed off that they are going to swallow their dislike of Republicans and shoot themselves in the foot really.

I say this because I do think there needs to be some push-back against your wave of fiscal asshattery scenario with wealthy and suburban voters abandoning 20 years of hard-fought Democratic gains because of a rough 18 months. Obama did better than any Democrat in Pennsylvania in what? 44 years? I don't see his numbers as being that bad outside of the rural central areas and southwestern PA, plus maybe the outer Philly suburbs, and tepid in Northeast PA.  

[ Parent ]
Mmm
Obama posted the best raw score (54.5%) of any Democrat in recent years, and did historically well in eastern PA, but actually did worse than Kerry compared to his national performance. Kerry won Pennsylvania with 51% of the vote, which was 2.7 points better than his national score. Obama did 1.5 points better in PA than nationally.

So, relative to the country, PA was actually slightly better for Republicans in 2008 than 2004 (almost exclusively because of the western part of the state.) The country took a net 10-point swing to the left between 2004 and 2008, and Pennsylvania took only about an 8 point swing to the left over that time span.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but that might be explained by McCain's push in the state
Just like Kerry did better in Ohio relative to Gore and (I believe) Clinton.

Plus, less than 2 points difference isn't a trend, it's basically status quo (unlike West Virginia, Arkansas, or Alabama).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Well, I don't knw if I like to view things in
those terms. Obama's bigger gains tended to be in red states, where McCain wasn't able to rack as much of a margin up as Bush. I mean I think you have to take into account the natural base for Republicans in PA, and southwestern PA's unfavorable, crotchety attitude towards national Democrats of late.  

Two, the country shifted 5 points, (48-53).

[ Parent ]
5/10 point
Yeah, you can describe it either way. I was going from R+3 to D+7. In terms of the Democratic margin, the country went 5 points while PA went 3.5 (51-54.5)

Like you, I pin this micro-trend entirely on the southwest's transformation from Democratic bastion to swing area, which was enough to counteract the steady bluing of the Philly suburbs.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Oversimplication
While I understand the rationale for your opinion, I think you are really missing why the Democrats have made these gains.  The Democrats did not make these gains based on some wholesale adoption of liberal economics.  How local government still runs around here would point otherwise.  

It was a rejection of the Southernization of the political culture of the Republican Party.  The Democrats for the most part have ran away from a liberal economic agenda.  Rendell largely governed with the help of Republicans.  In Delaware County where I live, the Democrats bombed the recent County Council election by a 2 to 1 margin by campaigning on implementing a number of social programs at the local level.  This is a county that Obama won by 20 points the previous year.  If there was an adoption of a liberal economic agenda, they would have happily voted for the Democratic slate.  If you look at it from this perspective, the trends make complete sense.

I suspect this is why we are seeing massive swings in a number of Great Lakes states.  This is a money election not a values election.  It is really the first money election we have had since 1994.


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I think the reason local
Democrats lost is the same reason Republicans are still losing in 65% McCain counties in the south. McCain got 78% of the vote in Grant Parish in Louisiana, yet it still sends Democrats to the state legislature, (new ones, not some old dinosaur who's been there 30 years), and has an entirely Democratic local government.

Local shifts are always the last to occur, and some areas are more stubborn than others. I think you are not overlooking that a lot of these local Republicans are one, a lot more liberal than their national counterparts, and two, that turnout is much lower for a local election like this and, frankly, the more conservative sections of local voters, like older, upper class white voters, are the most likely to the vote, whereas young and minority voters are not very likely to vote in them, thus skewing the electorate towards Republicans.  

[ Parent ]
It is definitely not over
whatever this poll may say, every other poll has had it in single digits. There is definitely still time.
[ Parent ]
Its over unless there's a gamechanger
If they "keep on trucking" the way both campaigns have been going, its Toomey in a relative landslide (for PA at least).
[ Parent ]
Agree
Ras and Ras/Pulse has it at 8.  If Q has it in double digits, it's an outlier.
[ Parent ]
Quinn has it 50-43
The eye opening poll is the NY Gov poll which has Cuomo up only 49-43.  
[ Parent ]
What some people forget . . .
is that Toomey used to be a representative from a swing district.  He has experience running in purple territory and did a good job of it for several cycles.  
[ Parent ]
That is what makes him dangerous
Toomey clearly has the ability to become an entrenched Senator from Pennsylvania for a long time.  Toomey will ideologically park himself somewhere between Santorum and Heinz which is probably a re-electable position in Pennsylvania.  Considering he is roughly the age Arlen Specter was when he was first elected, he could easily serve several terms if he got entrenched.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I really doubt this
Toomey is very, very conservative on economic issues, and PA is moderate to liberal in that respect. If he gets past Sestak I think he's toast in 2016 unless something strange happens.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
You guys are gonna kill me for this...
but maybe Sestak just isn't as good a candidate as Toomey. His Navy service is admirable and sets him a class above Generic D, but he's part of the unpopular Congress, is a down the line liberal/progressive, and seems to have a bit of a gruff personality. Toomey is well to the right of the state and has Wall Street ties, but he also has more money and has come off as likable and personable. We always say that candidates and campaigns matter, and I think this is a strong example of this in a cycle like 2010 (if this race is in 2008, we're looking at a whole different story.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I disagree on campaign and candidate
Its a wave in PA.  Look at the state top to bottom.  The PA GOP isn't running great campaigns in all the close races but is likely to sweep them all.  

Its really hard in a swing state to have people swing +15 for a statewide office (Governor) and then swing back to the other party for statewide Federal office.

I can't really ascertain as to why Toomey is coming off as likeable.  Has he done something to make him likeable or is this more about ads, which play into the wave.  

[ Parent ]
For me it's the ads
I'm not in Pennsylvania so I don't know much about him and his background, but his ads, even the attack ones, come off very well at least to me, and seem to have a better and more positive tone than your run-of-the-mill ads.

The wave is part of what's happening in PA, but part of the reason the wave is going to be so big there is because Corbett was such a great recruit for the GOP and Toomey, despite being lower down the list of "preferred Senatorial candidates" is running a great campaign. OTOH, Onorato wasn't high on many Democrats' lists and has been pretty quiet, and I expressed my feelings about Sestak above.

If it weren't for the difference in campaigns and candidates between the two parties, PA might be like NY, which although more Democratic represents a major missed opportunity for the GOP on so many levels (House, Senate, Gube, State Leg, etc.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Toomey has been very impressive
He was able to pivot to the center while keeping the strong support of the conservative grassroots that are such a big source of fundraising for him. He has been gaffe free, has raised big $$$, defined himself and Sestak early on. Toomey has been very surprising to me with how well his campaign has gone.  
[ Parent ]
Toomey's ads
Toomey admits he is a conservative, but does not come off as Rick Santorum.  Pennsylvania is a relatively conservative state when all things are considered so it should not be shocking that a personable conservative is electable.  I would guess somewhere around 80 percent of Pennsylvanians are conservative to a point either in the fiscal, social, or both senses.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Because Toomey
Is running as a fiscal conservative and not talking about social issues. Fiscal conservatism is in this year, and that is a good message to run on, as long as you avoid social issues, which Toomey is and Santorum didn't.  
[ Parent ]
A relatively conservative state?
Ah, so that's why they've voted for Democrats in the last 5 Presidential elections. I was wondering why fairly progressive campaigns like Kerry, Gore, Obama, managed to carry the state. Especially Obama, when you know, McCain fought there tooth and nails to the end, the centerpiece of his electoral strategy.

Fantasy, pure and simple. If these suburban Republicans pull off victories, it just means Democrats will have to spend another two cycles winning them back. These seats have gotten to Democratic for Republicans to hold, especially relatively conservative ones. Not only that, but while suburbs there, like everywhere else, are getting more progressive and diverse, there is already a naturally union heavy, if socially conservative, base for Democrats in northeastern and southwestern PA.  

[ Parent ]
Can anyone tell me why
McCain focused so much on PA, instead of Florida and Ohio, you know, states that had actually voted Republican recently?  
[ Parent ]
Forget Pennsylvania
He was still contesting New Mexico, Minnesota, and Wisconsin (he lost them by 15, 10, and 13 respectively)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I thought he pushed
Ohio quite hard. Obama's win was really, really unusual. He barely moved the needle in the Democratic areas f the state. A normally successful Democratic campaign gets a massive margin in the north part of the state and wins Appalachia, and Columbus narrowly, while losing Hamilton narrowly.

Obama won by dominating Columbus, winning Hamilton, and doing unprecedentedly well in northwestern Ohio.

[ Parent ]
That's how he won Indiana too
It's consistent with Obama basically doing about as well as Generic D in industrial, traditionally Democratic areas, but doing much better than traditional Democrats in more affluent, moderate-but-cosmopolitan New Economy areas.

It's the same way he won Indiana, in which his campaign swung Indianapolis - which was traditionally Republican, but fairly moderate, like Columbus and Cincinnati - heavily towards the Democratic ticket.  

[ Parent ]
My take?
1. He knew that a handful of Bush states--like IA, NM, VA, etc--were gone and that he needed to flip PA as well as hold OH/FL to win the election. Flipping PA figured to be the hardest of the three, so he focused there because if the environment turned around to the point where he was poised to win OH and FL, it would all be for naught if PA didn't flip as well.

OR

2. He knew the election was lost and decided rather than chasing OH and FL, he would quixotically try to catch fire in PA, which showed some signs of reddening in the west. If McCain was going to lose, he could at least give Republicans a consolation prize by showing them that Pennsylvania was winnable.

Of course, it backfired either way.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
But he was still contesting NM and IA
And New Mexico showed absolutely no sign that McCain had any prayer of either winning or coming close.

Personally, I think McCain either just gave up caring or he just flipped his lid.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
A third reason
PA did not have early voting, and thus no votes were banked yet, unlike Colorado and Nevada for example.  So if there were to be a last minute swing to McCain, it would really show up in Pennsylvania, while it wouldn't show up so much in say Colorado.  

So McCain's strategy was quite sound, if we can keep it within say 5 in PA, then if there were to be a last minute shift to us, then perhaps we win PA, unlike some of the states w/ early voting.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
The state's internal politics show its very conservative
Look beyond a presidential election.  I know we as a society are so focused on the top of the ballot, but you really miss a lot if you do not look beyond presidential results.

Pennsylvania is actually a fairly conservative state.  Fiscally, we have not had an economically liberal Governor in 16 years.  Rendell largely governed from the center and did not try to expand social services at the race of the last Democrat, Casey.  Rendell refused to help the progressive push to amend the State Constitution to permit progressive taxation.  

Socially, Pennsylvania is an incredibly socially conservative state.  Not in the southern bible thumper kind of way, but definitely not a bastion of social progressivism either.  It has a strong law and order streak, it has some of the toughest abortion laws in the country, and it has a strong gun culture.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Ryan, I'm usually with you, and you know the state better than me...
but I think calling PA conservative is a stretch. Moderate, but not "conservative" by today's standards.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Tendencies is probably the better term
I agree that my analysis should be qualified.  Pennsylvania definitely has strong conservative tendencies not found in most other Democratic leaning states.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Not really buying it
It isn't really conservative per se, only the T is conservative.  It is more of a dichotomy, fiscally conservative and socially liberal in the SE, and economically liberal and socially conservative in the SW and the NE.  

The result is that moderate Republicans get elected in the SE, and conservative Dems get elected in other areas, which leaves very few liberal Dems actually being elected in the state.  

Conservative Republicans have only recently made headway in the state, starting with Rick Santorum in 1994.  Before that, almost all of teh Republicans elected have been moderates. Most Dems elected in PA have been socially moderate (like the Caseys).  I predict that liberal Dems will also make headway in the state in short order (not in 2010 though), and you will have a swing state that looks more like the country.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Bingo
Thanks for bringing some facts to counteract Ryan's spin.
[ Parent ]
Well, your guess would be wrong
It remains one of the more progressive states when it comes to economic issues, while relatively conserrvative on social issues.  That's why someone like Casey was able to beat Santorum in a landslide.  On economic issues, Toomey is the polar opposite of Casey.
[ Parent ]
PPP isn't previewing anything for tomorrow morning
so it seems most likely more Q numbers or possibly a major network poll.
[ Parent ]
Poll
I'm thinking maybe its a major poll showing Obama in the 30s?

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac confirms it's releasing PA-Sen tomorrow at 6:30...
...but, it is also releasing a New York Governor's and Tea Party poll at the same time as well...

Man, I hope it's not some Mario Quomo surprise... seems unlikely, since the recent polling has all been so positive, but you never know nowadays where you'll get hit!

[ Parent ]
It would be Andrew Cuomo, but most likely
the Senate numbers in PA will be the worst yet for Sestak.

What about the Tea Party are they polling and where?

[ Parent ]
Sorry... it's late and I'm very tired...
They don't specify about the "tea party"... They lump it in with the New York poll, so it's probably in the state of new York or something...
[ Parent ]
Maybe . . .
Senate numbers from NY?  
[ Parent ]
DioGuardi up?
That might be a bridge too far and would be more of a bizarre outlier than a "game changer." Gillibrand isn't going anywhere.

Nah, if this is a "game changer" it's most likely Pennsylvania numbers lopsided enough to make the DNC consider pulling out. There are already better places to spend their money--WI, WV, CA, and IL.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It would be a stupid move
For any major party to move out of PA or OH. The House will be won or lost in those two states. PA has potentially up to 10 competitive seats. If Dems pull out of PA, they could lose more than half, possibly up to 9, or maybe even 10 of those (2 are Republican held, Gerlach and Dent's districts). Ohio has many competitive races too. Races that lean dem hold become toss-ups if Dems pull out, like Wilson and Sutton's districts. If Dems pull out of Ohio, even Marcy Kaptur could be vulnerable.  
[ Parent ]
I agree
But times are desperate. If Democrats are willing to concede the House about 2 weeks before election day--a horrible thing to have to do, but one that Republicans did at least privately--they will be looking to save Senate seats and governorships, and PA is not the place to do that. IL, NV, CA, and the like are all going to be winnable Senate races for Democrats on Election day even if the House is gone, and saving those seats is going to be worth a lot more to them then a half-dozen House districts in PA.

At the time, I considered McCain's pullout of Michigan to be stupid. And it may have been since it probably set the GOP 5-8 years back in that state. But he chose instead to invest in OH, PA, and FL, and those states were pretty important for him too.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Speaking of House seats in PA
The NRCC upped the candidate in PA-13 (Schwartz's seat) to Contender Status on Monday.  That is the same status as PA-10 and PA-12.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
No senate numbers...
Quinnipiac specifically states governors numbers... both on their web site and on twitter.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully
If its NY, its Lazio in 2nd and not Paladino in 1st...
[ Parent ]
God only knows
We got an actual Republican/Tea Party candidate in Paladino, but we got Lazio as the Conservative (aren't they sort of tea party like?) and a Democratic candidate claiming he is the true tea party candidate.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
My hunch is they're gonna show Toomey up by about twenty
Same margin as Portman in their latest poll. It seems unlikely Paladino or DioGuardi would post great numbers, given the Rasmussen post-primary polling hasn't been too strong for them.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking it'll be a poll shwing
a tied race. This seems to have tightened a bit recently.  
[ Parent ]
Tied race for whom, NY or PA? n/t

[ Parent ]
PA of course

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
The margin in the gov's race expanded, so I doubt the Sen race got closer.  
[ Parent ]
No way its tightened
The bulk of the polling has showed Toomey inching towards double digits.  I would not be shocked if Toomey is up by 20.  

I still stand by my prediction that Toomey wins by a greater margin than Corbett.  I would not be shocked if this poll showed it.  If the suburban completely collapses, Sestak does not have a base while Onorato still has pockets of southwestern PA outside of Pittsburgh in addition Philadelphia and Pittsburgh which a Dem wins by default.  It is quite possible Toomey will win 66 counties, a feat that Specter never accomplished.  Talk about irony.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Could Allegheny really flip?
I assume Philly is never going to. If Sestak were to only take 2 counties to Toomey's 65, would Allegheny be the other holdout, or is there another Democratic stronghold I'm missing?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Wow, I'll respond to myself
In 1998, Arlen Specter took 61% of the vote and lost two counties out of 67. The narrower of his two losses was in Philadelphia County, where he lost 59-39. But Specter's worst county was.......Somerset, where he got smoked, 66-33.

By comparison, McCain lost the state by 10 and won Somerset by 25 points.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It has happened before
Republicans have won Allegheny in recent memory:
Corbett 2008
Fisher 2000
Ridge 1998
Specter 1998

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I'll take that bet
Seeing as Q has Corbett ahead by 15 and Toomey by 7.
[ Parent ]
It's Toomey 50-43
[ Parent ]
Q is out there
Those who believe Strickland is down by 15 and Fisher is down by 20, then will believe Toomey is down 15-20, or whatever crazy number Q puts out through its likely voter screen.
[ Parent ]
Let's look back at recent history on PA-Sen
In retrospect, Obama's decision to flip Specter was a massive fail.  Obama was convinced that one vote in the Senate was worth destabilizing the PA-Sen race, and maybe it was on health care, but on everything else it hasn't mattered at all.  Had Specter stayed a Republican, Toomey would have run as the teabagger candidate, won the primary, and then been way too far right to win in the general against Sestak (or an even better candidate, like Rendell).  Instead, Toomey gets all this time alone in the Republican primary to define himself toward the center -- something he absolutely had to do after being Mr. Conservative for the last six years -- while Sestak drains his coffers on Specter and has nothing left for the general.

Flipping Specter gave us a mostly useless Senate seat from 2009-2010, but cost us the same seat for the next six years.  It's that simple.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Toomey up 7, it's NY Gov that's the surprise
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

Cuomo up only 6.

So, Q has an 8 point gap in the Gov. race, in Sestak's favor.  And the margin is in line with Ras/Ras Pulse.  This remains a winnable race for Sestak.

Wow...
Kind of surprised.  Pretty much every other pollster has been showing Corbett and Toomey within a few points of each other as of late...

Regardless, Sestak and the rest of the Democratic ticket is DOA with this:

Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing

That number is on top of a 59 to 34 disapproval of the Health Care bill and 58 to 39 disapproval of Obama's economic performance.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
DOA
If that's the profile of the electorate come election day.  I think that profile will have less unfavorable numbers.

But one thing is clear, the health insurance bill has been a political disaster for Democrats.  I argued with other progressive Democrats until I was blue in the face that passing the corporate-friendly Baucus bill would be worse than passing no bill at all.

[ Parent ]
I was worried about that... That it would be New York...
...again, another poll way more conservative than Rasmussen.  Thank goodness the GOP line looks like it still might be split, but this is a big bummer in the empire state and it isn't going to help downticket.

Quinnipiac's likely voter screen is certainly bizarro indeed

[ Parent ]
Paladino up with indies? This is crazy!
No wonder Cuomo has been acting weird lately...  If anything, hopefully this will wake New York voters up...   Hopefully, this poll is just an outlier, too... Another huge enthusiasm gap poll again!
[ Parent ]
If it weren't for redistricting,
I wouldn't care too much about this race.  I'm not a big A. Cuomo fan.  But I think this poll is an outlier.
[ Parent ]
We need to hold both the state senate and the governor's mansion
The former isn't an slam dunk, and if it's even somewhat close come election day, there's a good chance we don't hold the senate anyways.

It's actually not that big of a deal, Democrats have such a big hold on the Assembly that the very worst case scenario for us is an incumbent protection map (an upstate district has to be cut out no matter what, the area has lost population), though if the governor's race is tight, it could spell trouble for some upstate Democrats (Arcuri and Hall are the two I'd keep my eye on for that). Plus, we're at a point upstate where we've basically maxed out what we can do, controlling everything would really only give us the chance to knock off Peter King (not that that isn't worth something) and making the state senate a lot more Democratic (which again, is important, but not for House races).

The good news is that Paladino doesn't really have any appeal to Long Island, so I don't think he'll really have any coattails there (which is good for Bishop).

With all that being said, I'll wait until another poll is out before I believe that Paladino is that close.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
What the hell
Cuomo only up by 6 over Carl fucking Paladino. God I hope this is just an outlier but....at this point and the fact the election cycle is so wildly unpredictable towards Democrats I won't dismiss this poll unless Siena, PPP and a boat load of other pollsters go into NY.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Well, this poll out-Rasmussen's Rasmussen...
In the field at the same time...  What is the Quinnipiac voter screen, anyways?
[ Parent ]
Oh yes
so this ends up in the Daily Digest (hopefully) I'm posting this.

The founder of eBay, who's the person Meg Whitman owes for the job she so touts says he won't vote for her if he still lived in California. He says he doesn't believe in her positions on Prop 8 and immigration.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition) | 171 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox