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NY-29: Big Lead for Reed

by: James L.

Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 11:17 AM EDT


Siena (9/14-16, likely voters, no trend lines):

Matt Zeller (D): 30
Tom Reed (R): 44
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4.0%)

If you haven't already, kiss this one goodbye.
James L. :: NY-29: Big Lead for Reed
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NY-29: Big Lead for Reed | 23 comments
If you haven't already, kiss this one goodbye
Already did that eons ago like everyone else.
Came on SSP
expecting to see the new PPP WV-Sen poll.

You know it's 2010 when you see a poll showing the Republicans leading by 14 in a Dem-held district and it's less depressing than what you were expecting to see.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

And yes, for all you smartasses
I know this seat is technically vacant. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
FWIW,
that poll has Manchin down 3.
[ Parent ]
Are you kidding me?
Even Rasmussen has him up 9. WTF?
[ Parent ]
Yeah, exactly
that's why I came here expecting to see it. SSP is where I go when I need to be comforted by other Democrats freaking out about a poll. Although I will admit that sometimes there is either hollow optimistic or blunt realism (not that blunt realism is a bad thing, but sometimes it doesn't make you feel better).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
But that just can't be right
I'm sorry but that is well out of line with even the most positive Raese polling. What is with PPP? I don't think they poll Appalachian-esque districts very well or something because that result is flat.  
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen had it 50-43%
so it was 7 not 9 points. But yeah, there is reason to suspect PPP's numbers here although the races probably is not a slam-dunk.
[ Parent ]
sorry
did not mean to start a whole long discussion about WV-Sen.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
No polling outfit is perfect...
Even the best sometimes miss what other pollsters see.

Hence Gallup's wildly gyrating "Generic Congressional Ballot".

Hence CNN's gawd awful Nevada "poll" last week showing Washoe more Democratic than Clark (which in the real world, happens NEVER!).

And hence PPP's West Virginia poll.

Certainly, I don't doubt now that this race may be close. But if even Razzy shows Manchin ahead, Manchin is probably ahead and PPP probably missed something.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
This Makes Scott Murphy's 17 Point Lead in NY-20
all the more impressive. NY-20 should be more competitive than this district, but Murphy has a wider lead and 54% of the vote. Reed only has 44%.

Credit due to Congressman Murphy.

I'll agree NY-20 is impressive but
why would it be more competitive? this is an open seat and also more Republican-leaning than NY-20.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Great point
Also Reed is the former mayor of the largest city in the district.  

NY-29
[ Parent ]
Precisely!
This is an open seat, and the GOP got a top recruit in Reed. I STILL can't wrap my head around WTF was going on with Massa. (Now we know why Rahmbo didn't want to get involved in NY-29?)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Massa
Massa gave me a whole new level of understanding about that Village People song 'In The Navy'.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
What's new?
Winston Churchill observed more than 60 years ago that "The only traditions of the Royal Navy are rum, sodomy and the lash." To his credit, Massa apparently wasn't much into the lash part of the program.
[ Parent ]
PPP has Raese up 46-43 in WV
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Funny how WV's polling reflected the Massachusetts race. Rasmussen came out with that poll showing a tight race a few weeks ago, you all laughed at it, and now PPP has Raese ahead.

I get the sense
that Generic Republican is going to be very strong this cycle.  John Raese fits that category.  The places we are going to struggle is where we nominated a tea party, one who has serious scandals, or otherwise weird candidate, i.e. Colorado, Nevada, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, and arguably California.

I could see us losing all the seats above and still picking up West Virginia.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
One difference...
Rasmussen was in the field at the same time as PPP and it showed Manchin increasing his lead and being over 50%.  That didn't happen in MA.

PPP's likely voter screen is incredibly tight... probably, too tight.  When Jensen loosens up the screen, it shows Macnhin with a similar lead as Ras has him at.

[ Parent ]
What
helps Manchin is that it isn't two weeks before the election, so there's still time to turn this around. Also hopefully Manchin won't go into full gaffe mode like Coakley did (Campaigning out in the streets not for me, no terrorists in Afghanistan, insulting the Red Sox) or any of his campaign workers ending up in embarrassing incidents like physically assaulting a reporter for the National Review outside a lobbyist fundraiser.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but in fairness
I don't think Manchin will be doing any campaigning in front of Fenway in the cold...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
Why are you posting
off-topic things when an open thread is right below?

Seriously, that's really frustrating.

[ Parent ]
Really not too shocking.
Zeller will probably end up with like 42% at the end. Bad circumstances, tough seat, bad year, equals automatic lose. If the GOP only won 10 seats this year, this would be one of them.

For the WV poll. What is alarming is 54% of people want the Republicans to control congress next year. Thus why being popular as governer doesn't transfer over to being Senator.

NY-29: Big Lead for Reed | 23 comments

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