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ME-Gov, ME-01, ME-02: Big Leads for LePage, Pingree, Michaud

by: James L.

Sun Sep 19, 2010 at 4:46 PM EDT


Critical Insights for Maine News Today (9/13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 25
Paul LePage (R): 38
Eliot Cutler (I): 11
Shawn Moody (I): 4
Kevin Scott (I): 1
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)

More stink lines for Democrats from this open seat race. The only other polls we've seen, from PPP and Rasmussen, have also showed the tea-flavored LePage with a clear edge, though none of these polls were taken in time to measure the impact of the news that LePage's wife is under investigation for receiving homestead tax exemptions for her properties in both Maine and Florida. (LePage also had a profanity-laced freakout in front of news cameras after being questioned on the issue.)

At the very least, the House numbers offer a brighter outlook for incumbent Dems Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud.

ME-01:

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 53
Dean Scontras (R): 29
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±5.5%)

ME-02:

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 48
Jason Levesque (R): 28
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±5.8%)

PPP, who polled these races a couple of weeks ago (partially over Labor Day weekend), found Pingree up by only 47-38, and Michaud up by a more alarming 45-38.
James L. :: ME-Gov, ME-01, ME-02: Big Leads for LePage, Pingree, Michaud
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ME-Gov, ME-01, ME-02: Big Leads for LePage, Pingree, Michaud | 49 comments
Will this tax story stick?
I don't like these gov numbers, and if LePage wins, he could easily be drafted to replace Collins, and I would hate to have a conservative republican be viable state wide in Maine just because of this stupid environment.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Unclear
What is clear, though, is that Paul LePage is a thin-skinned douchehat!
[ Parent ]
Stickiness kind of depends
on if it turns out the motive was to defraud FL by getting in-state tuition rates at FSU for their kid.  (Supposedly the resident vs non-resident difference is like $20K a year).
I kinda doubt a minor homestead filing violation would stick much, but a larger fraud implication might with Joe Average Voter.
Remember McInnis' plagiarism (which is a form of theft) certainly stuck in the CO primary. And on a scale of bad-ness, that seems less bad to me.
[ Parent ]
Hmm skimping in order to pay for
exorbitantly high tuition fees; resonates with other middle class voters, shows you also have struggles, a minor scandal. As opposed to receiving half a million dollars to do consulting work and plagiarizing large portions of it. Yup, middle class voters would definitely be more turned off by trying to illegally get in-state tuition.
[ Parent ]
Do most middle class voters
own a second home in Florida?
[ Parent ]
Good point
Taken.  
[ Parent ]
I do, I want
leftists and moderates to quit being stupid in Maine and head reliable into the fold of the Democratic establishment. A brusque, teabagging Governor would be the perfect tool to do this and to get rid of Snowe.  
[ Parent ]
So, you think LePage should be elected?
Are you essentially telling me you want LePage be to Maine what Bush was to the US?

I'm sure it would destroy the GOP's credibility, but I can't really endorse losing the battle to win the war in this case.  You forget, sometimes blue states elect REALLY conservative politicians state wide and stay there for a while.  New York says hello (Sen. D'Amato)

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
D'Amato won because of a special case
The liberal vote was split in 1980, and in 86 and 92 due to very flawed Democratic candidates. Plus I'd say Maine is arguably more liberal than New York was at that time. There has been a world of change in the last 15 years in areas like Nassau, and the Hudson river valley, as well as in populous areas like Rochester and Syracuse where its an upset now if a Republican can win at all, effectively making it nearly impossible for a Republican to win statewide these days. The fact is NYC, with the exception of contrarian Staten Island, is no longer even in play, and Nassau and Suffolk lean Democratic, and even upstate is swingish to Democratic leaning in federal elections now, a process popular upstate politicians like Gillibrand, Owens, Murphy, and others, are accelerating.  
[ Parent ]
Mark Green should be seen as an everlasting shame to New York Democrats
How exactly, in a year when the Democrats took seats in the Dakotas and basically went on a romp, does someone lose to Al D'Amato by 17 points in New York?!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Well, to be objective
at that time the Dakota's were a lot more competitive for Democrats than they are now, (though Obama changed that a little), and Democratic populists/centrists like Dorgan, Daschle and Conrad played very well there. You could almost make the case that in 1986 the Dakota's were more friendly to Democrats in local federal races than New York was; because this was back when strong NY Republicans could still expect to win 60% in Nassau and Suffolk and narrowly win Winchester, when they could still win counties like Monroe, Onondaga, Ulster, St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton, and even hold Democrats under 60% in Queens. That's simply not how the electoral math works for them anymore. New York is becoming like Massachusetts; where it almost takes an act of God to send a Republican to congress, except with, under a more mundane Democratic gerrymander like mine, two conservative, Republican districts, but still. We'll see how well Democrats hold this year, pretty well I think, long term. I don't think but one upstate Democrat will lose, and whichever district that is will be eliminated, and I think Bishop will narrowly hold on.  
[ Parent ]
Westchester
Please stop typing "Winchester." It gives me a moment of "HUH?!" every time.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
And I'd probably have to say that
was at the height of D'Amato's popularity. His great constituent services and blue collar appeal, plus the nominal support of NY's Jewish community, (which continued up until 1998), made him a strong candidate. It wasn't until later years, in the 1990s, that his investigations of Clinton, and conservatism became louder and started to drag him down quite a bit among blue collar NYC Democrats, and then of course Schumer ran, and that was his constituency pretty much, and the result was Schumer crushed him. I'd say that 1998 Senate race was the first of several fatal blows the NY-DP was to inflict on the GOP over a period of 10 years.  
[ Parent ]
A Republican like D'Amato does not win by 17 points
Not in the '80s, even though Republicans were stronger, they weren't that strong, and D'Amato has always been a right-wing nut-job (hell, even with the ridiculous Democratic primary in 1992, Abrams only barely lost to D'Amato).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Like I said, by the late 1980s
D'Amato had started alienating people. 86 was the height of his popularity. In 92 he would have likely lost, even with the ridiculous primary, had Abrams not called him a fascist and run an all around limp campaign.  
[ Parent ]
It's funny how these little random events have big ripple effects
Just think: had either Holtzman in '80 or Abrams in '92 defeated D'Amato, then Hillary probably never enters NY politics. Instead, Schumer runs for Moynihan's seat in 2000, and with a strong candidate lined up, Rangel and the NY Dems don't bother drafting Hillary.

Would Hillary have launched a political career elsewhere? Maybe not, as according to friends and associates, she had largely settled on a post-WH career in advocacy and think tank work. But if she does, maybe she goes for the IL Senate seat in 2004, muscling a young state senator, Barack Obama, from the race.

Does Hillary run in '08? In real-life, she opted out of running in '04 because of her full-term pledge, so if she sticks to that again, neither Obama nor Hillary run in '08. Do we get John Edwards by default or do some other strong Democrats run? Maybe Durbin or Schumer?

So just think: Abrams not calling D'Amato a Fascist may result in neither Obama nor Hillary Clinton as president today.  

[ Parent ]
Well the point still stands
He was elected 3 times when he should have been elected 0 times in a state like like that.  I don't want the same thing to happen with LePage.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
One, LePage could only be reelected
once. Two, in 2 0f D'Amato's campaigns he won with less than 50% and the first time he faced a competent Democratic candidate who wasn't ripped apart in the primary, he lost by ten points. Compared to LePage D'Amato is that bad. Plus you forget this is a New York that sent James Buckley to the Senate in 1970, and gave him 45% in 1976 against a relatively moderate Democrat in Moynihan. The point is that NY has only in the last 14 years become almost unwinnable for Republicans.

D'Amato was abrasive, but you forget he also voted to allow gays to serve in the military, against DOMA, and was a fairly pro-labor Republican. Not only that but he voraciously looked after his state, being nicknamed "Senator Pothole". D'Amato was actually capable of governing in his state's interest. Irrational teabaggers like LePage wouldn't even be able to be good legislators, much less negoiate the much more moderate, pragmatic territory that is executive branch governing. I have no doubt he will not be mister popular once in office.  

[ Parent ]
Democrats in Maine are Almost Certain to be Flawed
The Democrats have long had the problem that the GOP only developed recently. Namely the candidates who can win the general can't get through the primary.

Portland figures largely in this. With no statewide positions other than Governor any bench is going to be made up of local candidates and the congressmen. Because Portland dominates statewide, its hard for a non-Portland candidate to win. And the rest of the state is culturally very different from Portland. Portland is basically an extension of the richer Boston suburbs 100 miles north, wheras Maine outside of Cumberland county is the poorest state in the country.

We saw this in 2008. Mick Michaud would have been the strongest candidate against Collins, but Allen wanted it, and with Michaud being both from the north and pro-life, the game was up before it started. Allen of course was the former Mayor of Portland, and he failed at all to connect with Democrats outside of that area.

A note on Allen. Portland has an even greater impact on the First Congressional seat. Because it figures even more largely in Democratic primaries for that seat, it means you will almost always get the afluent liberal candidate with limited appeal in the rest of the district. This is not fatal, but Allen never really broke 61% in the seat even against nobodies, and it means Pingree will always start with some number of voters against her.

Anyway, the main point I wanted to get across was that Paul LePage is far from unelectable against generic democrat in Maine, especially in an Obama mid-term year, since generic democrat will almost certanly be a Portland pol. In fact, if LePage can manage to shut up that long and not make a hash of things as governor, I think he would be favored over Pingree. I mean we are seeing basically that race right now in the gubanatorial contest.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
I put it this way in context of this Governor campaign:
LePage is far from being very populsr (in fact - he polls below McCain in 2008 and only somewhat above Woodcock in much more Democratic 2006). The problem is that Mitchell seems to be very unpopular outside her solidly liberal base.
[ Parent ]
By the way
if Snowe is to somehow win her primary in 2012, she'll be reelected in the general. Count on that.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Very unfortunate but true
Too bad she's not very moderate on the whole, and has blocked numerous Democratic legislative initiatives even after compromises were made and in all cases Maine's voters by large margins strongly supported the measures.  
[ Parent ]
Even more moderate Republican
wouldn't survive in Maine even 10 years ago. Snowe seems to me as far moderate as Maine Republican party was ready to tolerate (in fact - if you know much more moderate Republicans say, in Maine's satate legislature - i would be grateful for they names to follow their career with greater attention - it's always interesting to follow "mavericks")
[ Parent ]
If LePage challenged Snowe or Collins
Mike Michaud would jump into the race in hopes of LePage getting through, and would dismantle him in the general.

Pingree could lose to LePage statewide, especially if 2012 or 2014 is a bad year for Dems. She's not that impressive, and despite Maine being a blue state, she's significantly more liberal than the median voter.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I dunno,
She ran well against Summers in 2008, who was well-funded and had a good profile as an Iraq War veteran and former state senator. Pingree also ran well against Collins in 2002 despite the generally Republican atmosphere.

Her daughter has a big political future; Hannah Pingree is currently Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives. Maybe she could challenge LePage in 2014. On another note, Chellie's 55% vote total matches Kerry's in her district.

I don't see Pingree losing to LePage. He would be unequivocally a disastrous governor. His popularity would collapse when voters see what they got. As it is, the liberal vote is essentially tied with him when you include Elliot Cutlet who has no reason for running as an independent except he wanted to bypass the Democratic primary.

[ Parent ]
2008 was very Democratic year
If Summers would run this year - i would bet on him. Scontras is absolutely another matter.
[ Parent ]
Well
according to polling she is more favored this year than Michaud. Maine is a fairly liberal state, I do not think her views are out of the norm. I do not see why she is so weak. Her 08 opponent was an excellent one and I think most people expected it to be somewhat close.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Her Problem
Is not that she is a liberal. Its the type of liberal. She married into a wealthy WASP family, bought a vacation house on an island off of Portland, and opened an artistic knitting shop. She has written a bunch of books about organic food, and generally would be crushed outside of Cumberland county by any Republican.

She is safe because this is a very Democratic seat. Kerry won it by 11 and Obama won it by 22. Plus she has a very weak opponent. Her problem statewide is that she is going to be the exact same one Allen had, who had a similar though less extreme profile.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
i'm sorry but what does writing books about organic
food have to do with a liberal proflie? Do voters really say "damn I was going to vote for this person but that organic food book proves shes a hippie marxist!" Not to jump on you but I think that the profile isn't a big problem its more just representing the 1st district heh.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
It's part of the image
Pingree is a Massachusetts-type latte liberal from a city with many of them who is unfortunately (for her) in a state that does not have many latte liberal voters outside her home city. A good thing to remember is the marriage referendum last November, which had very little support in Portland but passed by a 5-point margin because of strong support in the rest of the state.

Pingree's not unelectable statewide. But the Democrats who are most successful in Maine are the "true Mainer" flannel-shirt types like Michaud, Baldacci, former Gov. Joe Brennan, and Angus King, who was essentially a Dem. She doesn't fit with that group, neither did Allen, and neither does Libby Mitchell.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Happy about ME-01 & ME-02
I don't think we are going to lose these two districts. What is the level of extreme among Levesque and Scontras?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
More evidence of PPP's weaknes in CDs outside of NC
They just don't do as good a job on them as they do with their statewide polls or local elections in NC, they really need to look at what they are doing wrong in polling house races throughout the country. Hope we soon see polling from NY-19 that contradicts the result they produced for DKos (Hall down to Hayward by 2).

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised if the NY-19
poll is right.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Me either
Though I'd like to see some Siena polling on it before I make up my mind, and maybe a Democratic internal. I felt Hall would have a very tough race on his hands once the erratic, unlikeable Greg Ball dropped out. Hayworth has dumped plenty of money into her campaign, and I imagine it will be close. I might redo my new york congressional map with the assumption that Hall will lose, which looks more likely than Arcuri for the first time this cycle. I'd like to see polling in NY-01, which I'm also nervous about but where I hope the expensive, negative Republican primary has helped Bishop enough.  
[ Parent ]
Bottom line is
I am hoping a Democrat loses in upstate New York, so we can create a 24-4 delegation. I suppose 25-3 might be possible, but that might make an upstate D or two vulnerable.

But probably too off-topic for a Maine thread.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
25-2
there is no pressing reason to give Republicans four seats. Simply make Lee and King safe, improve the Democratic performance a few points in all the swing districts. I wouldn't be worried about leaving a few Democratic seats only 52 or 53% Obama. Particularly in mind with where certain areas are trending.
[ Parent ]
Isn't it 25-3?
I don't know if that is possible... I'm about to go try.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
26-2
I'm going to post mind soon. It's really quite an elegant gerrymander.  
[ Parent ]
I was looking
at it and unless you want to do a crazy gerrymander (which I am opposed to) you need to have 2 upstate Republican districts lower than Obama with 50%. And Republicans will at least have a say in the State Senate, and they won't allow it.

I am wondering what is going to happen in 2012. Slaughter will be 83 and might retire. That should give Brian Higgins a safe district. But if Slaughter doesn't retire, then who do the Democrats try to force out? Tom Reed? I really think he needs to stay... maybe drawn in with the most conservative Democrat.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I could see them screwing with NY-26.
If Slaugter left since it is right next door. Maybe divide her district between Higgins and Lee and attempt to make two democratic seats though I can't say I know the population trends in that area.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
No.
It's really quite simple. I don't know why you are thinking so complexly. You take Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, the southern portions of Allegheny and Steuben, (including Corning), Elmira proper, and the the southern portion of Erie and part of Buffalo. It makes a 52-46 Obama district for Reed, and one that is a lot tougher for him to hold.

Higgins seat is effectively flipped around, but his new one, consisting of North Buffalo and Erie, along with Niagara, is four points more Democratic than his old, though he is free to go and run against Tom Reed if he wants, and probably win.

Slaughter's district is placed mostly in Monroe, though I believe a tendril takes out Democratic precincts of Livingston and go mopping up extra votes in order to put Republican areas of Monroe in the 26th. In the end her district remains 59-40. Lee's district absorbs every Republican area in the southern tier quite compactly, becoming 56-42 McCain.

A bit of shifting places Maffei's district at 58-41, two points to the left of its current transfiguration. I dismantled Arcuri's district more out of convenience than any firm thought he would lose. But to keep a long story short, Owens and Murphy see a little shift, Murphy of two points, Owens of none really due to Oneida voters, and Murphy is made fairly impregnable.

I even kept Hinchey's district at 57-42 and managed to milk a way for Hall's district to go up to 55-44.

Due to Staten Island's not growing fast enough, more of Brooklyn is need, and I stretched northward, taking in more Democratic territory, making that district 52-47 Obama. King I made safe, a 56% McCain district in order to boost Bishop's district to 56% Obama while not endangering Israel or McCarthy. I even tried to shore up Anthony Weiner, boosting his district to 61% Obama. I admit the NYC portion doesn't look pretty, but it already looks stupid and ridiculous and if anything I consolidated things. Kept the two hispanic majority districts, and made Rangel's district majority black again, making 4 majority black districts.

Like I said, not so hard, on the 14th time you start to find solutions to each of the previous bits of messiness that looked ugly.  

[ Parent ]
There is reason for doubt
based on their other congressional district polling.
[ Parent ]
What is the problems of their congressional polling?
I'm sick and tired of hearing of it. The two polls that are exceptions (NY-23, where they made an impossible decision last November, I can go into the decision if you want), and PA-12, where every pollster showed Burns leading. PA-12 is also a harder district to poll.

They were probably right on VA-05, and OK-02 when they polled the districts.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I think those House numbers are more correct than PPP's
The fact that they corroborate PPP's gubernatorial numbers scares me pretty badly.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Mitchell isn't an incumbent


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
Conventional wisdom on Maine's gubernatorial race:
Zzzzzzzzzz...
I have a question
Is Libby Mitchell somehow related to Former Senator George J. Mitchell of Maine?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
No, apparently she is from
South Carolina. I do wish though, that Mitchell had never retired. I'd rather he still held the seat today.
[ Parent ]
Lot's
of undecided's. Still high unknowns for both candidates. Probably a lean R race but I expect it will tighten.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
ME-Gov, ME-01, ME-02: Big Leads for LePage, Pingree, Michaud | 49 comments

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