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HI-Gov: Results Open Thread

by: James L.

Sun Sep 19, 2010 at 12:04 AM EDT


12:32pm: In the end, the numbers barely changed from the first batch. Neil Abercrombie crushed Mufi Hannemann, 60-38.
2:17am: TV station KHON was just at Abercrombie HQ, and while the crowd seems pretty pumped there, I'm still not getting the sense that they think the race is over - they keep talking about waiting for the "second printout" (ie, the next batch of results).
2:10am: DavidNYC here. Not so sure about this call. Doesn't seem like local HI TV news is acknowledging what the AP is saying.
1:51am: We don't need to wait up all night, though - the AP has just called the race for Neil Abercrombie!
1:26am: It looks like we won't have any new numbers for another two hours. Go take a ganja break and check back later.
1:17am: We finally have some numbers, and Abercrombie is up big: 42K to 28K votes (59%-40%). It looks like this hasn't been a very smooth process in Hawaii today.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Politico
James L. :: HI-Gov: Results Open Thread
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HI-Gov: Results Open Thread | 90 comments
Pullin for Strongman
Neil Ambercrombie

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Love that Hawaii just has a blank pdf file up right now
"Ha, Gotcha!"
Go Abercrombie !!
Knock 'em dead, Neal. He certainly has the physical capability to do just that.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
Sniff
last primary of the year.
F the general. No split votes. No run-offs. No cat fud. No intrigue. No unhinged base-pandering.


This the best news for us
I'm so glad that we aren't going to be able to hand seats to the Dems anymore by nominating unelectable candidates.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
i'd like your opinion
and every other republican on here.  If you guys narrowly miss retaking both chambers, do you think the republican primary electorate will become more pragmatic, or even angrier to the point they primary any moderate, regardless of the state or district?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
No
No, I don't think so.  Too many people just seem to prefer not to have Castle types in the party - they'd rather lose than win with him.  I am hearing people talking about right wing challenges to Snowe in Maine and even Scott Brown.  I swear, it makes me want to punch somebody.  Sure, if you want to replace Hatch or Graham, I won't freak out - fair enough, but not in blue states.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Isn't Massachusetts a challenge for signatures?
If they miss the majority, they will blame it on not being conservative enough. Guaranteed
[ Parent ]
My thoughts
I think we'll barely win the House and miss the Senate by a good deal (I have R +5 in the Senate right now, or 52-46-2).  

The saving grace for 2012 is the Presidential race, which will allow independents in many states to participate, and which may increase turnout as a whole.  This may help prevent primaries from being dominated by tea party and others who would like to purge anyone who doesn't always toe the line.  

I think it also depends on what happens in 2011 and 2012.  If Boehner can't stand up to the pressure of the tea party, Redstate, etc, and shuts down the government, that may embolden these guys to complete the purge.  If Boehner "caves", then that may disillusion some of these people with the GOP altogether.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Government shutdown
They almost certainly will get the government shutdown.  I would be shocked if one does not happen.  If Obama's ratings are still in the mid-40s and his team has problems communicating their agenda like they have the entire presidency, a government shutdown might be electorally a good thing to pull off.


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
he wont be in the mid forties forever
frankly, a 46% approval in 10% unemployment in this country is an astounding testament to his political skills. i dont know that the gop will be any more cooperative, given the pressures that have been put on every incumbent republican, but he will be back over 50 if there is any job recovery at all.  
[ Parent ]
It does help
that California, one of the few states that likes Obama, also has one of the highest unemployment rates.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Personally
I think the base has just gotten crazier this last decade. Also the line between what is considered acceptable and what is not has been blurred on both sides these last few years. It would not of been acceptable years ago to place an ad in the NYT questioning a general's integrity or honesty nor would of it been acceptable to question if your President is actually an natural born citizen of this country.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Interesting question
It really depends.  The tea party movement is in for a rude awakening.  The Republicans will almost certainly take the House, but many of their candidates will not be leading the charge.  The bulk of the Republican pickups will be in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic.  Most of the Republicans in these races are not tea party favorites.  For example, none of the five Republicans in generally competitive Pennsylvania races are tea party favorites.  All five were picks of the establishment.  The same applies to Ohio and New York.  

What this is likely to cause is divisions within the tea party movement.  Where the tea party movement has been very divided, their impact has been negligible.  Ultimately this is what I think will happen to the tea party movement.  Any movement driven by populist rage usually consumes itself from internal divisions.  I suspect this is going to happen in the presidential primary.  We will have three tea party candidates at least, which will create a situation where a Romney or Daniels will come up the middle take the establishment and the moderates.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
my thought is
if the republicans fail to take back anything this year, the base stays angry and the electorate in 2012 is similar to what it is now, anywhere from 5-14 (worst case obviously) senate seats could be lost to the republicans.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Angry
The Republican electorate is going to remain angry regardless of what it happens.  It is a question of whom they will be targeting.  Will the be targeting their own or Obama?  I suspect they will be targeting Obama because he is the ultimate enemy.

The question is how this anger manifests itself.  I see the tea party groups consuming each other in a primary.  Imagine a primary where Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul are all competing for the same voters.  Daniels or Romney could easily win without tea party support or partial tea party support because the establishment and moderates would very likely gather around the same candidate.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Guys
Swing State Project is not a "quiz the Republicans" site. If you want to ask questions like these, please reach out via email.
[ Parent ]
Moreover
This is a thread about Hawaii!
[ Parent ]
so
we can't ask "which Hawaiian island do the tea partiers like the most?"

Well, there is potential to the "Ask Republicans questions" site concept

[ Parent ]
where nothing is happening
sorry, this is what happens when there aren't any results to talk about and we (or at least I) don't want to study.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Good idea
Anyone is more than welcome to email me about it.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Yea
Thank God IL had an early runoff or we might have blown that Senate race, also.  Then again, more time might have given Tarkanian in NV the positioning to take over and win rather than Angle.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Not so sure about IL
Mark Kirk turned out to be a much more flawed candidate than expected.  Also Bill Brady, a really conservative candidate, has turned out to be the favorite to win the Governor's race.  I'm not so sure that we would have been worse off with a conservative there.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
No Way
Brady is favorite simply because Quinn is just that unpopular. Dillard would be doing much better. The only reason the race is not likely or safe R is because Brady is soooo conservative. You do know the person who ran against Kirk is someone of O'Donnell's caliber right? A birther perennial candidate. The other was basically some dude but WAY too far to the right for ILL. Had either won this would be likely to safe D.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I know Kirk's opposition was insane
but I'm saying that say Andy McKenna had stayed in the Senate race, or if Peter Roskam ran instead, I'm not sure that they wouldn't be doing as well as Kirk.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Oh
Roskam would be doing better for sure. Not sure about McKenna though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not to worry!!
There is still the Louisiana run-off :P

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
LA-runoff, man thats some pretty schwaggy shit

[ Parent ]
outside of Louisiana's third district
or the two legislative nominee replacement primaries being held in South Carolina for their state house.
[ Parent ]
Ganja Break
Neil Abercrombie - candidate voted most likely to take a ganja break during the vote count.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Other things to track
will a non-partisan beat the vote total of the Free Energy candidate for the Governors race (if he does, the nonpartisan winner goes to November, if he doesn't, then he won't. Actually, he would need to win 10% of ALL votes in the primary if he didn't beat the vote total of any party primary winner. Which is a method that has NEVER been exceeded by a nonpartisan.
and
the Honolulu special elections are winner take all, no majority required. The single-stage special election is used for everything in Hawaii, logic to the contrary.
[ Parent ]
they are going to report results tonight right?
we're not going to have to wait weeks for mail in or anything, are we?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
HI1 reported the night of
and this isn't an all-mail election
[ Parent ]
But
But it's an all-male election?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Really?
Only men are allowed to vote in HI primaries?  
[ Parent ]
Misspelled mail
I think they misspelled mail.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Naw
I was joking that all of the main candidates are male.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Male
Even 'Mufi' is male!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
but the Aiona ticket will have a female running mate
therefore all the women will vote for him

(/2008logic)

[ Parent ]
Mufi
I seriously thought he was a female at first seeing that name.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Mufi
I was wanting him to slip in the polls so that the headline would be 'Mufi Diving In The Polls'.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I was joking

[ Parent ]
for Governor, maybe, but not for the House
  since Mazie Hirono (HI-02) and Colleen Hanabusa (HI-01) are not males...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
When will we get results?
I don't want to fall asleep in church tomorrow knowing my luck I would snore loudly.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Go to sleep
No results until 4:30 your time.  
[ Parent ]
still better than New Hampshire
even though no results have been posted.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
starting to think aber could lose
just the anti-establishment vibe and a gut feeling.  kind of like lamont losing, seemingly out of the no where, to malloy.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Lamont
wasn't the establishment candidate though. Malloy was. And polls showed Malloy surging big time in the last days of the campaign. (In no short part because Malloy unleashed a series of negative ads against Lamont.)

Though I agree something in my is saying that Abercrombie could lose. I don't know, something is telling me there's some x factor we're all missing here.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
so
if the "evening news rule" holds up.. we'll know the results by around 3am CDT.

In other news, the sun is still out in Hawaii

First results
ABERCROMBIE, Neil 41,809 58.78%
HANNEMANN, Mufi        28,276 39.75%

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/G...

Little weird
I'm pretty new here, so I may be way off base, but Hannemann has almost the exact same number of votes Obama got here in primary. Does that mean they are almost done counting already? Clinton got about 8000, so there are ton more votes here than there was in presidential primary.

18, Dem, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Hawaii had a caucus for the presidential race
unrelated, looks like the nonpartisans will get access for Gov and Lt. Gov, maybe for Senator, and not for the 2nd Congressional district
[ Parent ]
ah
Thanks, and to the others who corrected me. Guess I'll lurk for a few more months :)

18, Dem, PA-7
[ Parent ]
that was a caucus
completely different animal.  they usually have a lower turnout, mainly occupied by party activists and regulars.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Hanabusa is
also doing very well. She'll definitely take this seat in November.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
FINALLY!!
Politico also has results up, but it says that 0.0% of precincts are in. They have the exact same percentages as you do, though. Weird.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
FINALLY!!
Politico also has results up, but it says that 0.0% of precincts are in. They have the exact same percentages as you do, though. Weird.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
and those are the absentees
according to the Hawaii SOS site
[ Parent ]
Next results about 9:30 Hawaii Time
The first printout consists of absentee and walk-in ballots. The second printout is expected at around 9:30 PM.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/G...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
when's that?
3:30 eastern?  4:30?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
3:30 I think


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Late
Too late for me.  Mufi's going down, anyway.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
That's
12:30 here out in the West Coast, yay us :)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
I'm jealous!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
the West Coast was convienient to visit
when I wasn't going to bed before 2am.. then over there, I'm asleep around midnight, plus the effect of being up at 5:30 to fish was not as bad as it would be in the midwest
[ Parent ]
4:30 PM in Japan, yo!
of course, not like it matters seeing as how I wasn't able to check the results until just now, lol.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
aber's
winning all of the counties in the early results.  him dominating in his home district makes sense, but unless it pulls heavily for hanners in the other, it looks like aber won

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Republican results rodeo
Governor: Aiona 95.5%, Carroll 4.5%
Lt. Governor: Finnegan 68.4%, King 31.6%
Senate: Cavasso 69.1%, Pirkowski 20.4%, Roco 10.5%
CD1: Djou 97.8%, other dudes 2.2%
CD2: Wharton 49.3%, Willoughby 45.2%, Gimbernat 5.5%
Kauai, the contrarian island
Abercrombie and Schatz are winning 3 counties, Hanneman and Kauai Island Senator Gary Hooser are winning Kauai
So...
So all the non-Federal races have been called by the AP.

See ya tomorrow.

Excuse, please--Federal races...

[ Parent ]
2 hours after polls closed
but only early votes counted.  does this count as quick or slow?  either way, sucks to be hanners.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
for those unaware
Mufi was the mayor of the entire island that he lost 62/36 in early balloting.

Also, the Daniel Cunningham bio on Vote-Smart is one thing. His NPAT positions.. well.

"Put the U.S. Navy on the grid, build a floating island, & magnetic levitation transportation system."
"A plutonium economy would drive to cost of electricity down into oblivion. The cost of everything would also go down. Change permitting into certification for assessment and liability purposes."

Free Energy indeed

jeez
that's just scratching the surface of the insanity that is Daniel Cunningham.

He ran a "tarp city" and charged desperate people ridiculous amounts of money to live there.  It finally collapsed, and further revelations came out that he was injecting his unfortunate tenants with god-knows-what.

[ Parent ]
the tweet linking to his PVS page did not mention the
"license revoked for curing cancer" part of his professional experience

presumably it's part of the plutonium economy

[ Parent ]
although
if he made the residents of the Tarp City run for political office with his Free Energy party then it probably wouldn't be the first time a culty operation went into partisan politics in Hawaii.

Hope that the plutonium economy provides for a landbridge from Los Angeles to Hawaii to Japan

[ Parent ]
wtf- there's an Aiona ad running under the google ads section the left
Anybody else seeing that? Annoying...

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
Sigh, if only
I get Meg, Meg and more Meg
[ Parent ]
Second print out is out, Abercrombie over 60%
Looks like it's over at this point.

Anyone got anything to say on this Caldwell vs. Carlisle race for Mayor of Honolulu? Saw an interview with Carlisle on the local tv (thank you internet, SSP please include ive streams from local tv stations on election day results threads, this is AWESOME, thank you) and I liked what I saw.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Carlisle is alright
local city races are officially non-partisan, but if you could pick out who the Democratic and Republican establishments are backing, it's Caldwell and Prevedouros respectively.  Carlisle is somewhere in the middle.  I'm not sure about his positions on specific issues that may come up should he go into legislation or aim for governor one day, but for the moment I'm fine with him being mayor.  Despite a historical affiliation with the Republican Party, he's not of the anti-tax fringe, he understands the need for the city to actually do things, and that such things need to be paid for.

Caldwell is doing better than I expected (and I voted for him too), but for most people, they saw him as little more than a party hack.  Prevedouros was purely a fringe, single-issue spoiler candidate.  Carlisle has demonstrated enough competency that I wouldn't mind him as mayor.

[ Parent ]
Is this a one-round vote or is there a runoff?

[ Parent ]
one-round for special elections
there'd be a runoff if it were a general election
[ Parent ]
Can't believe the Star-Advertiser isn't calling it
This is shaping up to be an absolute blowout.

Great night all around.  I wasn't too heavily invested in the mayor's race, I'd be fine with either Caldwell or Carlisle.  But I definitely wanted an Abercrombie/Schatz ticket and that's what we're getting.

Mufi Hannemann just conceded
Mufi just announced he called Abercrombie to concede, and to offer his support in November.
[ Parent ]
Hawaii Voter turnout
OK I am sure most of the reason is a lack of competitive races on the Republican side but Democratic turnout crushed Republican turnout in the Primary by about a 5:1 margin.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Not
counting Lingle, Aiona, and Djou, there's probably like only 5 republicans in Hawaii.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
lol
The odd thing is that having Lingle as Governor seemed to satisfy voters...as they felt free to start voting Democratic for everything else and Republicans were absolutely decimated in the state legislature.  
[ Parent ]
I've never really been able to explain
why Democrats routed Republicans in local elections in Hawaii starting in the early 2000s.  Republicans went from having roughly 40% of the state House and 30% of the state Senate to having less than 10% of both chambers.  They lost their friendly mayors as well.

They may finally pick up a few seats this year but that's what was supposed to happen the past few elections as well, with Democrats so over-extended.

[ Parent ]
yeah that's pretty much standard
Even in state legislative races where the Republican is safe, Democratic primary votes usually at least double, if not triple GOP primary votes.

In the strongest Dem districts, Democratic primary votes can be over 10 times as numerous as GOP primary votes.

A lot of people just vote in Democratic primaries here because ours is the only one with competitive primaries.  Republicans regularly see primaries with over 95% going to one candidate.  Pretty much just party loyalists, not even as many of the "vote for whoever isn't the incumbent" people that hold even popular Democrats like Inouye under 90%.

[ Parent ]
HI-Gov: Results Open Thread | 90 comments

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