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WA-03: Gap Narrows, But Herrera Up 9

by: Crisitunity

Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 5:15 PM EDT


SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/12-14, likely voters 8/21-22 in parentheses)

Denny Heck (D): 43 (41)
Jaime Herrera (R): 52 (54)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

SurveyUSA takes its second look at the open seat race in WA-03 to replace retiring Dem Brian Baird, and they find that Denny Heck has narrowed the gap slightly, though Herrera's already over 50%. This could be via better name rec for Heck via continued presence on the airwaves, or just float within the narrow band established by their last poll (and the cumulative Dem/GOP results (54 GOP-42 Dem) of the Top 2 primary).

This being SurveyUSA (and this being Washington, where their age skew always seems especially pronounced), you're probably wondering how those young people feel about this race. Well, it seems like they're really eager to take Herrera out for a malted and then to the sock hop, because she leads Heck 56-38 among the 18-34 crowd. Oldsters want Herrera to turn down that racket, though: Heck actually leads 48-46 among the 65+ crowd.

Crisitunity :: WA-03: Gap Narrows, But Herrera Up 9
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age
Young voters favoring the Republican might be more plausible here given that Herrera is 31 and Heck 58. The margin looks screwy, though.

41, Ind, CA-05

When do we start bundling SUSA polls at the end of the morning roundups
like we do with the Rasmussen polls that almost no one in this community takes seriously?

Because in this particular environment, I don't think SUSA is producing polls that are worthy of serious consideration.

I can't find the link, but evidently Rothenberg has seen internal polling from both the Perriello and Hurt campaigns that all show a low-single-digit lead for Hurt.  Meanwhile SUSA is showing a 26-point lead for Hurt.  They're on some other planet.  (A planet that has no Democrats under age 35!)  Why do their polls get their own posts anymore?

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


I'm the one who posted about Rothenberg's revelation on VA-05 polling......
Rothenberg's characterization of VA-05 polling was that both sides' private polling show Hurt "leading narrowly."  That doesn't necessarily mean "low single digits."  I've learned not to read words too literally from campaign analysts, because what they write isn't always what they mean, or how I would characterize the evidence.  After all, Cook just moved CT-Sen to "toss-up" in a write-up that admitted the Republicans' own private polling still has Blumenthal up by "high single digits," and Democratic polling has it well into double-digits.

So when Rothenberg says "leading narrowly," I could see him saying that when both sides' polling has it in mid-single digits or even high single-digits.

But either way, I think it's safe to say VA-05 is not in the double-digits, and the 26-point margin they showed last time is absurd.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Rassmussen > SUSA
That is all.  Especially in Washington & Minnesota.  SUSA hasn't had one good poll in either state the last two election cycles.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

This seems perfectly
reasonable based on the top two primary.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Yeah, yeah
The old saw about how their crosstabs are screwy but their toplines are right? Sorry, but I just ain't buying it anymore. If most pieces of data that you gather are seriously messed up, it's just dumb luck that when you put it all together that the toplines add up to something relatively believable. I'm on board with Rasmussen > SUSA at this point, much as it pains me to give Scotty Ras props.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
What DO you think the results "should" be?
n/t

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
They should be right
The crosstabs should reflect reality. I don't know this race well enough to tell you what the toplines here should be with any confidence. But what I do know is that if you're consistently finding young people favoring Republicans, and not just favoring, but heavily favoring them, well... U R DOIN IT RONG, SUSA.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I reject the work what SUSA id doing

All the work, the alone difference is what we can take still SUSA as a random republican pollster not enough for change the general overview.

The alone difference between both is what Rasmussen with billions of polls every week is able for change all the overview if we take his results into account.


[ Parent ]
They aren't Republican
Their methodology is just struggling with the wave just as it did in the other direction two years ago.

[ Parent ]
FWIW, haven't seen a Herrera ad on Portland TV yet
It's been all the CfG 3rd party and Heck ads. I gather Herrera had some bio spot up, but haven't seen it.  

She sturggled to raise $$$ in the primary
And is probably saving it up for a few weeks.  

[ Parent ]
Jaime Herrera will get the dyslexic vote
  She pronounces her name "Jamie" but it is spelled "Jaime" which is a man's name pronounced like Hymie. Interesting...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


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