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DE-AL: Carney Starts Strong Against Urquhart

by: James L.

Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 3:08 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 8/7-8 in parens):

John Carney (D): 48 (48)
Glen Urquhart (R): 37 (30)
Undecided: 16 (22)
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Former Lt. Gov. John Carney starts strong against businessman Glen Urquhart, with an 11-point lead. While the trendline shows some movement for Urquhart, that can be explained by two factors: First, PPP moved from the registered to a likely voter screen (meaning the sample went from 30 to 38% Republican - pretty much exactly the baseline support that Urquhart is enjoying), and second, Urquhart's been spending big over the last month on his primary campaign.

To give you a taste of just how douche-flavored Urquhart is as a human being, I encourage you to check out this DCCC tracker video showing Urquhart telling an audience earlier this year to ask their "liberal friends... why they're Nazis". Needless to say, Mr. Urquhart can fuck himself.

Meanwhile, the Politico hears some chatter that the NRCC may not spend any money on this race now that they're preferred candidate, businesswoman Michele Rollins, fell in the primary. Hard not to see why.

James L. :: DE-AL: Carney Starts Strong Against Urquhart
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101%
Is it me or does the total calculate to 101%?

Rounding
One of these were rounded up.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Rounding.


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
What I like is that
that the tracker spoke back at him, but Glen kept on rambling the crazy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


For the last F'in time Glenn
I dont know why I'm a Nazi. All right?

You know, a tracker for a house race seems pretty sophisticated to me. Hey one district state peeps, do the AL house races feel like bigger media events out there because their state-wide?


should read "they're"
excuse me for a moment of eye-forking

[ Parent ]
clarification and answer
I at first thought you meant Alabama, then I figured out you mean at-large districts.

They only get more media attention because they get polled more often and that's because it's much easier to poll at-large because you can just toss it in with a statewide poll.  Saves you a lot of time since you don't have to recalibrate everything for a house district.

Pollsters also seem to poll house races in states that have 2 or 3 district, correct me if I'm wrong.  And this is coming to an end now that the election season is picking up and interest groups are willing to spend the money for house races.  


[ Parent ]
Would have liked to have seen a bigger lead
But 11 is okay.

Focus on Delaware, it makes us feel like 2006 and 2008 all over again!......
Who knew that Castle's big move would give us the House seat and cost us nothing?

We had some of these the previous couple cycles.  This time, only here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


This will be the first time Dems held
Delaware's governorship, both Senate seats, and Congressional seat since 1899.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Holy Cow, that's even longer ago than
when the Cubs last won the World Series.

[ Parent ]
the NE is coming home
at least still somewhat.  LuPage is equally nutty and I cant wait to see Snowe and Collins tossed on their asses.  Maybe Collins will make it if this fades out by 2014, but I really believe Snowe is a goner.  She has some decisions to make.  And Brown will hopefully be taken out as well.

NH can be the lone pain in the butt.


[ Parent ]
There is no doubt in my mind that Brown will be booted
The democratic Machine in MA + a Presidential election will totally = Senator Mike Capuano.

I mean, even in the BEST case scenario, where Coakley's campaign failed miserably, and the GOP in MA was fired up, Brown ONLY got 52%.

There is not a doubt in my mind it will flip unless the democratic nominee in 2012 becomes Coakley part 2.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
NE is the postal abbreviation for Nebraska
   Someone has to come up with other abbrs for New England and the Northeast. Any ideas?

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
change nebraska
to NB

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
wait
thats new brunswick. NA

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Umm
That's North America.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
NR?


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
DE-SEN
Rasmussen has Coons up 53-42 over O'Donnell. Of course he didn't poll DE-AL.

That
is more narrow than I would like. Still looks good though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Crosstabs
The reason Urquhart is view more favorable than Rollins is due strictly to Republicans liking him more. Democrats don't know him, and those who do don't like him one bit.. Once he's defined, this should be more than 11.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Needless to say, Mr. Urquhart can fuck himself
Actually, no. It really needed to be said.

I still don't understand how Glenn Beck managed to convince the Republicans that the Nazis were somehow leftists/progressives. Criminy, it's like: the top targets of the Nazis were Jews, gays, the handicapped, scientists, Gypsies, hobos, atheists, union leaders, communists and socialists....in other words, the Democratic base. And who did they leave alone? Conservative white people.

So I would like to encourage Mr. Urquhart to eat a bag of dicks.

Okay, that was a fairly off-topic rant. Sorry. I'm done now.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


Also, Hitler was against social justice.
He called it "a pernicious idea, imported by Jews, to allow weaklings to access power undeservedly."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Same reason
Hitler called them "National Socialists" when they were anything but. Political labelling was as important then as it is now.

[ Parent ]
More accurately....
...the party did start off with many left leaning ideas on economic policy and after Hitler took over and purged the party of his enemies including those who were "Brown on the outside, red on the inside" and brought in the big industrialists from northern Germany that was a thing of the past.

The Nazi Party that took over Germany under the leadership of Hitler had little to do with the old Stasserite leadership that started and named the National Socialist Party.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
Interesting
Kinda like the Republicans and Democrats swapping places, racist Southern Democrats, Northern Abolitionist Republicans and all that.

[ Parent ]
I'm still perplexed why Michelle Rollins lost
Didn't she pander enough to the base?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Perhaps coattails
from O'Donnell and her TPX crazies turning out big.

[ Parent ]
A little of column A, a little of column B
Rollins was viewed with suspicion by conservatives; Urquhart was the true believer in the race. He ended up dragging her to the right. I think O'Donnell's performance also helped Urquhart, as their bases were similar (both won Kent and Sussex).

[ Parent ]

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