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NC-Sen: Burr Leads by 24 Points?

by: James L.

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 8:14 PM EDT


SurveyUSA for WRAL-TV (9/10-13, likely voters, 7/8-11 in parens):

Elaine Marshall (D): 34 (36)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 58 (46)
Mike Beitler (L): 6 (6)
Undecided: 2 (12)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

2% undecided? A 54-36 Burr lead among 18 to 34 year-olds? Good grief. This is literally the best poll for Burr released all cycle - going all the way back to March 2009.

Either voters in North Carolina love them some rocking chairs, or I want a hit of whatever SUSA is toking.

UPDATE: In the comments, we have a response from Marshall's pollster.
James L. :: NC-Sen: Burr Leads by 24 Points?
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NC-Sen: Burr Leads by 24 Points? | 29 comments
What is up with SUSA and young voters?
They keep showing them overwhelming republican contrary to all past data/other polls/logic.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
So in a state that according to exit polls
18-29 went 74-26 for Obama is now 54-36 Burr among 18-34 year olds? It's hard to imagine such a dramatic swing.

And 2% undecided when nobody knows who Burr is...I just find it hard to believe. Tied in the Raleigh area, 66% for Burr in Charlotte (his best area)...just very strange cross-tabs overall.  

[ Parent ]
I believe it
Burr has run some good ads reintroducing himself to North Carolina.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
Yeah
And Marshall's campaign seems non-existant. I'm actually glad this race has been seen as a longshot this early so the Dems don't dump money into it. Same with Kentucky, although they'll probably keep money in that race in the hope Rand Paul screws up. Ohio is also a tough race.. I'm thinking that it might be better for the Dems to just put all their money on a defensive firewall in the Senate at this point. Shore up Feingold, Blumenthal, Boxer, Murray and Bennett.

I'm more pessimistic than most on here though.

[ Parent ]
If I were the Dems
I'd defend Pennsylvania as well.  Democrats always close strong in that state, and Sestak is still (barely) within striking range.  On offense, they should right now limit to Kentucky and Alaska, and perhaps attack ads on Rubio in Florida.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
I don't
and I live in North Carolina.  The two candidates in NC are too unknown to only have 2% undecided.  Burr is probably up by around 10, I would guess 49-39 or in that area right now.  
[ Parent ]
You believe Burr is up by 24?
I believe he's up by 15, after the good ads he's been running.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I believe Burr is ahead but this is consistantly odd problem
with susa polls this year that doesn't make sense. Young people don't just jump that much after giving Obama 75% of the vote in North Carolina. I could see Burr ahead by like 10 but this is obviously F-ed up.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
No, a few good ads don't move a race from 10 points to 24 points......
Numbers don't move like that without something big moving them, and it almost always has to be something that really destroys the trailing candidate's public image.  Nothing like that has happened to Marshall.

As I commented elsewhere on SSP, Stu Rothenberg earlier this week thoroughly discredited SUSA's VA-05 polling, and it's clear from that and the totality of SUSA's polling that they're picking up only the most intense voters, who this year are heavily Republican.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Answer: No.
SUSA is living in a fantasy world with a fantasy electorate.

The campaign asked our pollster, Lake Research, to do an analysis of this poll and here is what they found:

The most recent SurveyUSA poll regarding the North Carolina Senate race seems to be deeply flawed.  There a number of methodological questions as well as internal contradictions that cause us to doubt its accuracy.  Those issues are outlined below.

  • SurveyUSA started calling on a Friday evening.  First, as a practice, we almost never call on a Friday evening and we certainly never begin a survey on that night.  Friday evening is a notoriously difficult night to try and reach voters.  That complication is further exacerbated by beginning the survey on a Friday.  
  • SurveyUSA used an RDD (random digit dialed) sample.  Typically, during off-year election campaigns like this one, campaign-polling teams use a voter-file sample in order to talk to voters who have shown a past habit of voting in these kinds of elections.  Past behavior is the biggest indicator of future behavior.  In this case SurveyUSA has no way of telling if the people they spoke to have participated in similar elections and that could cause them to interview people who will not vote this year.
  • SurveyUSA's reported data among likely voters shows they reached more men (53% of the sample) than women (only 47%).  Typically, women almost always outnumber men in the likely voter universe and on Election Day, both nationally and in North Carolina.  The data also has Burr ahead among men by a larger share than he leads women which artificially and inaccurately inflates his support.
  • SurveyUSA's reported likely voter universe is comprised of almost equal parts Democrats (40%) and Republicans (39%).  That too is unusual.  In fact, our own internal baseline had the Democratic party identification advantage at 5-points and at the time that was the smallest advantage in any publicly released data.  Democrats have a partisan-identification advantage in this state and this survey does not reflect that reality.  Further, we have no way of telling if the data accurately reflects the Democratic registration advantage in the state since it is based on an RDD sample.
  • SurveyUSA's reported likely voter universe is younger than a typical off-year electorate.  More than half of their respondents are under age 50 and less than half are over age 50.  Generally, the electorate tends to be older than that in non-presidential years.  Burr has a larger advantage among younger voters than older voters in this data and thus his support is again artificially inflated.
  • The SurveyUSA poll shows Burr leading among both women and men.  This does not make sense.  Nationally, polling shows women significantly more Democratic than men.  The same is historically true in North Carolina.  In the SurveyUSA poll Burr has a 9-point advantage among women.  In our baseline poll, Marshall was leading Burr by ten points among women.  
  • Finally, the SurveyUSA poll only asks favorable ratings and does not ask about Senator Burr's job performance ratings. Every public poll released this year with that data shows voters giving Burr decidedly negative job performance ratings.  In fact, it is the single strongest predictor of the vote.  In our baseline survey, only 25% of voters felt Burr had done an excellent or good job compared to 58% who believed he had done a just fair or poor job.  The survey never gives proper framing for the election or the eventual ballot ask by omitting job performance as a key question.  That also artificially inflates Burr's support.

That took a long time to code, so you know I mean it. All of that combined leads to a very bad poll, don't buy it -- the race in North Carolina between Elaine Marshall and Richard Burr is tight and winnable race.

Full disclosure...
...I consult on Elaine's campaign.
[ Parent ]
Wow
Thank you for all that information.

Of all the Senate hopefuls running, Elaine's my favorite because she seems like the nice lady from church everyone likes.

I hope that likability translates into votes.

I don't think Richard Burr will be getting over 50% of the vote, so there's a discrete opening here for Elaine.

[ Parent ]
I think I know why
I think I know why SUSA has young voters skewing so Republican....if they're polling on a Friday night, the young Democrats are out carousing and fornicating and whatnot, while the young Republicans are probably at home watching reruns of Touched By An Angel.

Because I don't know about you, but I would interrupt a rerun to answer a poll, but I would not interrupt my precious fornicating & carousing time to do so.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Wow, nicely done.
Quick and effective response from the good guys' side!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
As for
SurveyUSA's reported likely voter universe is younger than a typical off-year electorate.  More than half of their respondents are under age 50 and less than half are over age 50.  Generally, the electorate tends to be older than that in non-presidential years.  Burr has a larger advantage among younger voters than older voters in this data and thus his support is again artificially inflated.

It's even further inflated by some ridiculous 18-34 yeay-old numbers that give him a 54-36 lead, as mentioned in the original post.  Hell, I'd give him that he could tie with that group in this bad of a cycle, but those numbers will not be the numbers on election day.

[ Parent ]
Nice to see some of what I guess are internals
Marshall up by 10 with women is only going to be a good thing for her, so I guess there's hope in this race as long as credible polling (PPP please?) starts showing a 5-7pt race.  It's starting to get late in the game, but there are simply too many undecideds to give this up just yet.
[ Parent ]
SUSA problems -- huh?

... we almost never call on a Friday evening and we certainly never begin a survey on that night.

I can see why it is less than ideal, but I don't understand why would favor Burr -- nor do I see why starting then is worse than continuing then.


SurveyUSA used an RDD (random digit dialed) sample.  Typically, during off-year election campaigns like this one, campaign-polling teams use a voter-file sample in order to talk to voters who have shown a past habit of voting in these kinds of elections.

Shouldn't that actually favor the Democrat?  I would expect random-dialed to be closer to a survey of all adults (or even teens, if you got cell phones), and the voter-file sample to be registered or even likely voters.

In other words, I see a problem here, but it suggests that the poll should be too optimistic for Marshall.


SurveyUSA's reported data among likely voters shows they reached more men (53% of the sample) than women (only 47%).  Typically, women almost always outnumber men in the likely voter universe and on Election Day, both nationally and in North Carolina.  

OK, this is a problem, though I would expect it to change things by 1% rather than 20%.

But don't most polls have a problem with oversampling women?


SurveyUSA's reported likely voter universe is comprised of almost equal parts Democrats (40%) and Republicans (39%).
 

OK, a problem, but...


Further, we have no way of telling if the data accurately reflects the Democratic registration advantage in the state since it is based on an RDD sample.

... isn't this just the same problem over again?  Why say "Further"?


SurveyUSA's reported likely voter universe is younger than a typical off-year electorate.

Here is a problem -- particularly combined with the oddly-Republican-leaning youngest voters, that this analysis didn't mention.


The SurveyUSA poll shows Burr leading among both women and men.  This does not make sense.

Why not?  Is it just because the lead among women is so different from other polls, but the lead among men is not?


Finally, the SurveyUSA poll only asks favorable ratings and does not ask about Senator Burr's job performance ratings.

Neither does a ballot.  Do you have pointers for the claim that "job performance" is a much better predictor than "favorable rating"?

[ Parent ]
Interesting...
I suspect Burr is up by double digits, but 24 seems a stretch.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
No way
He's probably up about 10 points, but there's no way he's going to blow the doors off this one, even in this year.

In recent history, Senate elections in North Carolina have been relatively close (within 10 points always, but often much closer).Even though Jesse Helms managed to get elected five times, he never beat his opponent by double digits and he couldn't get past 52% of the vote in his last two campaigns.  

We have a pretty steady history of turning out senators occupying the particular seat. Not that such a "curse" means anything, but I have a hard time believing Richard Burr is such a beloved figure in this state that he's going to close in on 60% of the vote. He'll probably win, but I'll be damned surprised if Elaine Marshall doesn't exceed 45%.

I think SUSA
has jumped the shark totally.  They have been so far off base in so many places it's ridiculous.  They've been way off in Washington, off in California, off in Minnesota.  Just today they've released two ridiculous polls in North Carolina and Georgia that contradict virtually all data that we've seen from the polling community.  Their problem is their continued inability to show democratic candidates leading big among voters in the 18-34 age bracket, and the fact that their partisan weights are downright apocalyptic for the democratic side, weights that would only happen if a portion of the democratic base drove into a giant black hole on election day.  

Does anybody remember the SUSA poll from around this time of year two years ago that had McCain leading Obama by 20 points?  This poll reeks just like that one did.  

From now on, I'm going to start treating SUSA polls just like We Ask America, or other right-leaning organizations.  This is ridiculous anymore.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

NC
You beat me to it, I think Burr is up and we won't win this, but no way is it this bad and it reminds me exactly of that McCain poll.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Wow
Even the legendary Tekzilla says that poll is bunk.

That means it's bunk.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Tek's not stupid
Tek's not a Palin, he's just a pessimist (not that there's anything wrong with that).

It doesn't take a whole lot of political knowledge to know that this poll doesn't come anywhere close to passing the smell test...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I think they should poll Schumer vs. Sacrificial Lamb
If they show the challenger ahead or within 10 pts we'll know how bunk their polls are :/
[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same thing
They have had quite a few wacky polls this year. Don't know what's going on.
[ Parent ]
I think it reflects the intensity gap, which results in...
...a lot of people who definitely will vote, and are discouraged (by the bad year) Democrats, hanging up on robopoll calls disproportionately far more than Republicans, who are excited to talk politics this year with anyone who will listen, even if only a computer asking them to push buttons on a keypad.

I'm not kidding or exaggerating, that's how the enthusiasm gap plays out in polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree
I also would add the point that caller ID is absolutely wonderful.  Many won't answer unless they know who the hell is calling.

BTW, SUSA did call me last night (I answered the phone...had a few adult beverages in me).  They were polling Joe Hackney's race (Joe is the speaker of the house) and the Burr-Marshall race.  They asked some questions on whether I approved of Obama and Perdue (can't remember the order).


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Thank you, you just nailed it right there
Maybe the reason that Burr is leading by such a wide margin is that all of the other Marshall voters went further than you with the adult beverages, and couldn't answer the phone.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I cant believe they'd even bother to release this

NC-Sen: Burr Leads by 24 Points? | 29 comments

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