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SSP Daily Digest: 9/15

by: Crisitunity

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 4:15 PM EDT


AK-Sen: Two positive developments in the Alaska Senate race, as Scott McAdams seeks to introduce himself in this suddenly-competitive race. He was the recipient of a Mark Begich-headlined fundraiser yesterday in Washington DC, and he's also out with a radio ad stressing his Alaskan roots and that he'll keep fighting for "schools, hospitals, roads, and other nuts and bolts" - both key ways to differentiate himself from Joe Miller. As for Lisa Murkowski's plans, she's saying that she'll make her intentions known by Friday whether she wants to make a write-in bid (but her plans to return to DC might be a "no" tea leaf).

DE-Sen: After running far, far away from Christine O'Donnell last night, the NRSC has done an about-face today, giving her the maximum $42K (with Mitch McConnell chipping in his own $5K). I'd be surprised if they give any more than that; this seems like an attempt to placate the base before they go ballistic. Mitt Romney is also backing O'Donnell and giving his own $5K, apparently more worried about getting past the base in the 2012 GOP primary than support for O'Donnell might look for him in the 2012 general. Meanwhile, for those hoping for outright support for Chris Coons from Mike Castle, the Castle camp has said there won't be an endorsement. (Assistance can take a variety of other forms, though, that aren't as likely to be apparent.) Finally, if you're wondering about how Christine O'Donnell sees herself within the Middle Earth context, now you can find out.

NH-Sen: Although New Hampshire recount law would allow Ovide Lamontagne to seek a recount (since he finished within 1.5% of the total votes cast), he just opted against such an action, conceding the race to Kelly Ayotte. He had until the end of the day to request it.

AK-Gov: It's the last day to get his name on the ballot in Alaska in any capacity (and not really at issue, since the AIP and Libertarians weren't open to subbing him as their candidate). That leaves 2nd place GOP gubernatorial finisher Bill Walker with a write-in bid as his only option, too, and he sounds like such a bid is "unlikely."

CA-Gov: I don't know if all is truly well now between Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown, or Clinton is just feeling that he's adequately established himself as the alpha dog in the wake of Brown's capitulation following their ill-advised sparring, but Clinton gave his endorsement to Brown. It remains to be seen what exactly Clinton does on Brown's behalf, though.

CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is able to stay on the ballot, said a U.S. District Court judge yesterday. He'd been the subject of a challenge from local GOPers, but the judge ruled that it wasn't relevant that Tancredo had been a member of the Republican Party up until launching his Constitution Party bid.

FL-Gov: The DGA just plowed $1 million into the Florida governor's race, showing that they indeed think this (thanks to Rick Scott's presence) is one of their best pickup opportunities but also that the route to doing so will be through a whole lot of money.

GA-Gov: Nathan Deal is fighting back against reports that he's in such financial disarray right now that he might need to sell his house to avoid default on a large business loan. The $2.3 million loan is due on Feb. 1, which exceeds the Deal family's net worth. (This was an investment in a business started by his daughter which failed completely; it's entirely separate from the family auto salvage business that's at the heart of the Ethics complaint that chased him out of the House.)

MD-Gov: Looks like we won't have any lingering bad feelings here, unlike a lot of other establishment/Tea Party GOP primaries: Brian Murphy, who lost badly to Bob Ehrlich, has offered his endorsement to Ehrlich "if he's willing to accept it."

DSCC: I guess Charles Schumer looked at yesterday's election results and decided he didn't have much to worry about in November from Jay Townsend. He just transferred $1 million to the DSCC from his own cash yesterday, on top of a previous $1 million in August. That leaves him with "only" about $22 million CoH... about the same amount of cash on hand that the DSCC has!

DCCC, NRCC: The DCCC and NRCC are out with slew of independent expenditures advertisements. (Expect to see that phrase in every digest for the next month and a half.) The DCCC rolled out three new IEs in HI-01, MI-01, and AL-02. The NRCC's buy is in 10 districts: most significantly in IN-02 (for $135K), but also AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07 (for $79K), and TN-08 (for $105K). If you want more details on the NRCC's bid, you can check out the actual FEC filing.

Self-funders: The Wall Street Journal has a helpful rundown on how self-funders are faring this year. As with, well, pretty much every other year, they're faring quite poorly. Of the 10 biggest self-funders in this cycle's Senate races, only three actually are still running (Linda McMahon, Carly Fiorina, and Ron Johnson); the other seven (Jeff Greene, Steve Pagliuca, Bill Binnie, David Malpass, Sue Lowden, Jim Bender, and Terrence Wall) all fell by the wayside, often in spectacular fashion. Same story in the House, where only three of the top 10 self-funders (Tom Ganley, Randy Altschuler, and Matt Doheny) are still functional.

Redistricting: Any SSP readers out in Arizona? Here's your chance to get out from behind Dave's App and actually get your hands on the real thing! The state's nonpartisan redistricting commission is seeking applications from the public for appointment to the 5-member commission.

SSP TV:
60+ Assoc.: The health care astroturfers are running anti-Dem ads in WI-03, WI-08, NY-01, NY-20, and PA-10
AFF: AFF launches a total $2.3 million buy in seven Dem districts: AL-02, GA-08, MI-01, MI-07, NJ-03, SC-05, and WV-01
American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., is spending $330K on a MO-Sen ad and $550K on a CO-Sen ad
FL-Sen: The US Chamber of Commerce hits Charlie Crist, pointing to his many flip-flops
NV-Sen: The Sharron Angle camp has another anti-Harry Reid ad, calling him "the best friend an illegal immigrant ever had"
NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand's out with her first ad, more or less explicitly introducing herself despite her two years or service
NC-02: Bob Etheridge isn't leaving anything to chance this year, rolling out an ad that's mostly a pleasant bio spot
OH-18: I mentioned Zack Space's anti-NAFTA ad yesterday, but here's an actual link to the ad
PA-06: Jim Gerlach's first ad has him stepping away from the Republican label, saying he's "an independent voice for taxpayers"
PA-10: Chris Carney's ad goes there, hitting Tom Marino on his ties to sketchy casino entrepreneur Louis DeNaples
SC-05: Mick Mulvaney's new ad hits John Spratt for having gone native in Washington
WI-07: Is the DCCC taking a page from the Fred Davis "Celebrity" ad that seemed to bizarrely work against Obama? Their new ad against Sean Duffy is rife with clips from his days on The Real World

Rasmussen:
FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 23%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%
OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 50%
PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%
VT-Gov: Peter Shumlin (D) 49%, Brian Dubie (R) 46%
VT-Sen: Patrick Leahy (D) 62%, Len Britton (R) 32%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/15
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DE=Sen: O'Donnell scrubbed her website.
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Her Site Kept Going Down Last Night
It kept going down repeatedly for at least an hour.

It's more likely to be an effort to keep the site up to continue collecting donations, rather than an effort to conceal anything.


[ Parent ]
NY
I don't understand why Schumer is sitting on $22 Million.  Even if he just donated 4 Million each to the DNC, DCCC and DSCC that would be amazing.  There is really no reason for him to be hoarding this money.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Request to Schumer:
Send MOAR MONEY NOW.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Hey
Hey, HEY, forty point margins just don't create themselves.

Bettah recognize.


[ Parent ]
I'm sure his vote margin
will help downballot races as well.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Not if people have no idea he's up this year
Seriously, I bet even half of SSP forgets from time to time that NY-Sen-A will also be contested in 2012. Schumer might want to consider using some of his cash to go on the air and remind the Democratic base to turn out, especially upstate, where there are a lot of vulnerable Dem-held seats.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Argh, 2010, not 2012
See, even I got the year wrong!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I don't understand it either
Especially since there is still a chance Reid could lose. Would give him a lot of sway in a leadership election.

[ Parent ]
maybe if Reid had a better challenger
Schumer would have been doing as you suggest.  Makes me wonder if losing Reid could have saved three others.

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen B; NV-Sen......
NY-Sen B:  Man, Gillibrand just looks hotter than ever!  Easily the best looking member of Congress in either chamber.

NV-Sen:  that's the first good ad Angle has aired.  Rove's group has aired decent ones on her behalf, but for Angle herself this is the first good one.  Of course it's a double-edged sword and can help Reid with Hispanics as much, and perhaps more, than it helps Angle with swing voters or the GOP base.  But it's a good ad.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Your right!
Christine O'Donnell would not approve of my thoughts right now...

[ Parent ]
In case your thoughts are going in the direction I think they might...
[ Parent ]
have you seen gabby giffords?
.........

[ Parent ]
Gillibrand
Is hotter.

[ Parent ]
i would just say that
either one would do fine by me

[ Parent ]
SSP Cosmo Alert!!!
  They are both lovely ladies. Gillibrand is more my political type (actually Barbara Lee or Lynn Woolsey are more my political type really) but I think that Christine O'Donnell is more beautiful. But I almost always prefer the dark haired women and she has a great look (half-Italian, half-Irish). That combined with her craziness and anti-sex attitude makes lusting after her even more forbidden and evil, which makes her still hotter...

   Now back to your regularly scheduled SSP programming.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
O'Donnell
This reminds me of the old adage "beauty is only skin deep..."

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Funny
We both have the same opinions on O'Donnell. She is very cute since she lost her weight, plus the whole anti-sex thing makes it seem so wrong, but really its so right.  

[ Parent ]
I concur
n/t

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Don't forget about Loretta Sanchez.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
I still think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is just incredibly cute.

[ Parent ]
DE Sen
O'Donnell warns that college dorm rooms are actually "orgy rooms." Oh man, the men in the white coats with the ice cream truck need to wheel her and Sharron Angle away to the nutty house.

http://www.salon.com/news/poli...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Orgy rooms? Where can I find them on campus?! LOL


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
They're usually in a separate complex
Or "quad" if you will. Look for the telltale Greek letters.

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
I think O'Donnell has been in my dorm room...
.....I mean.....ugh....

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
Chet Edwards has yet another new ad up!

Check it out!

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  


I think he ought to emphasize his power over VA matters, i.e. WHY he was able to keep Waco VA open
I wonder how much Edwards' campaign is doing to talk up his chairmanship on the Veterans Affairs subcommittee.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Great setting, good tone of voice, good message.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
If the NRCC are going in
He still has a decent shot.

[ Parent ]
I think in the end he wins
We'll see soon enough.

[ Parent ]
VT-Gov
Shumlin ahead of Dubie in a Rass poll?  Looks like the era of ticket-splitting is rapidly coming to an end after all, even in Vermont.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

VT
I'm shocked to see Shumlin ahead, I thought that one was a goner.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
One
of Rass' post primary bounces. Expect Dubie to be ahead soon enough.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Dubie will be ahead in the next Ras poll
Along with any usual Rasmussen disclaimers, any poll after a primary should have a disclaimer.  I cannot wait to see his DE-Sen poll.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I think I'm going to have to back
O'Donnell now. Tolkien fanatics have to stick together.  

DE Sen will be expensive
O'Donnell has raised nearly 750k since last night.  

She can air all the ads she wants
a sizable chunk of people who voted for Castle will not vote for O'donnell. This seat is gone.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Link
please.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I didnt want to link to her webstie
But here it is: http://christine2010.com/
This does not include checks in the mail, the NRSC or PAC money.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe
I'm not sure whether to trust her or not though. She is known for being a little less than factual.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
$250k is from DeMint eom


[ Parent ]
Nope
First, he can not donate that much to a campaign, and that would not show up in online totals. I think you are thinking of money he transferred to the FL GOP. Maybe he did the same for the DE GOP.  

[ Parent ]
You're right
It was the FL GOP.  I wouldn't be surprised if he (or his pac) did the same for DE.  He can spare it.

[ Parent ]
IDK
The DE GOP has no love for O'Donnell, even now. Go to their website. You can't find a bit of positive info on her. Its all negative.  

[ Parent ]
Good, let them throw money away on her, that's $750K less for winnable races......
That's good money after bad that they're giving her.  Not surprised they're giving it, giving her money is not a fraction as stupid as giving her the nomination, and they already gave her the nomination.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
When
Meg Whitman stopped by the gas station today she told the cashier "$15 million on pump number 4 please." Because she just put another $15 million into her campaign gas tank.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Har har
So funny, I forgot to laugh (j/k).

Really, though, the expenditures reflect her sense of entitlement to the office of governor.


[ Parent ]
Oh
ya yesterday Brown released two 15 second attack ads portraying Whitman as Pinocchio. They are really funny, especially when Whitman's nose grows like Pinocchio's.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
The ads seem effective
 They get right to the point, portraying Whitman as a liar and giving out the facts really quickly and concisely.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Jerry Brown loves calling people a lair....
Bill Clinton, Meg Whitman....

He needs to stick to policy IMHO. In 1992 Brown ran a Tea Party type anti establishment campaign for President from the left.

IMHO that kind of campaign could work in this cycle. Its too bad he has opted to run such a plain vanilla establishment Dem race.

I think if he brought back is toll free number and limited campaign contributions and ran an underdog campaign like he did in 1992 he would be killing Whitman in the pols.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
And speaking of Whitman
She now holds the dubious honor of spending the most money on a campaign in U.S. history! http://www.politico.com/news/s...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I wonder if
 All the spending will turn off voters. Brown does on the defense in his ads, citing the truth but maybe he should have some funny ad with Meg trying to buy everything, including priceless stuff.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Maybe her spending
will turn off voters, but not so much because of "preaching fiscal restraint yet spending like there is no tomorrow", but rather because many voters that are not already sick and tired of seeing her on TV will likely feel resentment from seeing her spend so much while they're forced to cut back.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
That's a good point
 Prop 15 which would have allowed public financing in California did fail. It is true you can over campaign when voters get tired of you.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
That's what I keep thinking!!!!
Look at her spend all that money on a stupid campaign while Im unemployed.

[ Parent ]
Same here!
And all the while Perry keeps pretending we're neither in a recession nor are we $18 billion in the hole, almost as much as "free lunch" California!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
MA-AG: Coakley will have a Republican challenger
No independents, Republicans, or Democrats filed against her. Two Republicans ran write in campaigns, and atleast one (maybe both) surpassed the 10k vote threshold to get on the November ballot. Its a long shot, but she does have to actually campaign now (b/c we all know she's so good at it!) http://wbztv.com/local/martha....
He has declared victory.  

non-starter
in that state, a statewide write-in has no chance of winning  

[ Parent ]
He's not a general election write in
Jim McKenna got into the race after the filing deadline (no Republicans filed for AG) and ran a write-in campaign for the GOP nomination. If he got at least 10,000 votes in the primary, and more than any other write-in did, he'll be the official Republican nominee and will be printed on the November ballot.

Could Coakley do it again? Losing to McKenna would be less consequential but even more humiliating.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
my fault
i get your point now(and it is a valid one); my only question now would be, has he got any money?(that is not a cheap state)

[ Parent ]
Not a nickel
He's Some Dude with only one path to victory: hoping that enough people hate Coakley that they'll vote for anyone else. That's not likely, seeing as Coakley only lost by 5 to one of the best campaigners I've ever seen in MA.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
No, I think GOPVOTER meant this guy got on the ballot using write-ins
Right?  

[ Parent ]
Nancy Reagan will stump for the Fiorina/Whitman ticket
So says my Californian pal. Still looking for a link to confirm, though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Its
morning in California again I tell you! But sadly Meg Whitman's millions have blotted out the sun.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It takes Nancy Reagan
to get Whitman and Fiorina in the same room--those two can't stand each other.

[ Parent ]
Who hates who?
I'm not sure about their relationship, but I'm guessing Meg hates Carly more. Whitman was supposed to be the star of the party this year in CA. Fiorina stole that from her. I heard she resented Carly even more after the last two Republican conventions. Fiorina completely stole the show, especially the first one, and Whitman got very little coverage out of them, while Fiorina got a ton of positive coverage.  

[ Parent ]
Cornyn quotes
"The Democrats' indecision reflects the fact that Republicans are on offense in at least 12 Democrat-held states and we are leading in the polls in seven of those 12 states."

Obviously the latter category includes only four definite GOP poll leads IMO - ND, AR, IN and PA. Before yesterday I counted "offense" in 13 states. Those being the four previously mentioned plus DE, CO, NV, IL, WI, CA, WA, WV and CT. So either Cornyn is just (rightly) assuming a win in ND or they have written one of those off. So maybe the "endorsement" is just window dressing to satisfy the base.

Now, does anybody want to hazard a guess which other seats he is talking about in which they are ahead? Can't be DE, WV and CT. So three from CO, NV, IL, WI, CA and WA.


IL,CO, and NV
are the three but that is just him doing his job(i don't even think cornyn really believes his own bullshit like this)

[ Parent ]
All three are plausible
Opinion Research poll (cited above in the WA-Senate posting) has Angle ahead, and polls have had Kirk and Buck leading recently (not by much)  

[ Parent ]
agreed
but i think even cornyn believes he can't pull off that tri-fecta

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure why he wouldn't
All three are plausible victories, and Cornyn is head of the Republican Senate efforts. Why wouldn't he believe it (just because we don't)?

[ Parent ]
not at all the point
that tri is highly unlikely(my thoughts are not important; the numbers are)

[ Parent ]
"Highly unlikely?"
Sorry, not to keep pushing this point. I wouldn't call this "highly likely" but you've got recent polls with all three Republicans leading. How can you say "highly unlikely"

I agree thoughts are not important, polls are. But the polls would suggested this is possible at this point. I'd agree if we were talking about Wisconsin or California or Washington as one of the states.  


[ Parent ]
putting the three together stretches the odds greatly
as individual races i would agree with you, but not if taken as a 'threesome'

[ Parent ]
Actually, I think this is a matter of semantics
I could see us losing or winning all three races, with NV being our most likely win and CO being least likely. I think we're on the same page here - I just don't think we should get overconfident about any of these races, which I think you agree with.  

[ Parent ]
totally agree
i would take no races this cycle for granted(which is actually something we could do the last two cycles);and you are dead on about overconfidence(the best thing on our side is overall quality of our candidates vs. the real fringe candidates the other side keeps nominating, though some of those fringe candidates are bound to actually win)

[ Parent ]
CO, NV, and IL
Would be my guesses.  

[ Parent ]
I dunno
I guess it depends on what polls he is citing. IL could well be one since Alexi has gone the longest without a lead I think. Rasmussen has new CO numbers with Buck up 4 yet PPP and even SurveyUSA and POS have Bennet up. We have had the first polls for a long time having Angle up but both by just a point and Mason-Dixon's consistency makes me think things probably haven't changed. In the final analysis I guess it doesn't really matter what Cornyn says since clearly the only consistent leads they have are in four states and I for one haven't yet written off IN completely and certainly PA could yet get interesting.  

[ Parent ]
our problem in IN
is simply that this is just not our year(ellsworth is the right/best candidate for our side though)

[ Parent ]
Absolutely
I think Coats will win but even Rasmussen can hardly give him over 50 percent. I see it closer than anybody thinks.

[ Parent ]
totally agree
the democrats have their best candidate; the repubs did us a favor and nominated their worst

[ Parent ]
Nope, not by a longshot
Hostettler was by far their worst, and I don't think Martin Stutzman would have been very good this year either.

What probably is true is that if the Republicans had known Bayh was retiring, they probably would have wanted someone like Daniels or even Pence in there instead of Bayh.

Actually, Coates is turning out to be a disappointingly strong candidate - he's done pretty well fundraising, and although he does seem to have a ceiling at 50% Ellsworth hasn't gotten close in any recent poll that I've seen yet.  


[ Parent ]
hostetler was not a factor
i think clearly stutzman had a higher threshold than coates; coates is the beneficiary of a good year for his side(in my view); ellsworth is just unlucky due to the calender(the fact that he is doing this well shows his actual value, in my view)

[ Parent ]
I bet Wisconsin. Remember that they will cite any poll, including Rasmussen, for...
...public consumption on these things.  After the KY-Sen primary and the Rasmussen poll that showed Paul up 25 on Conway, Beltway Republicans were repeating the talking point that Paul was "up 25 points" as part of their defense of him in the midst of his big mouth.

I believe Rasmussen has Ron Johnson up one point in their last couple WI-Sen polls, so I bet that's where Cornyn is thinking among the states with GOP leads.

For the record, while I shrug off Rasmussen, I am concerned for Feingold based on what could be a bad impending bloodbath for us in the upper Midwest.  It really is bad there for us in Big Ten country, and I've lately been regarding Feingold as more endangered than Murray or Boxer.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
New Nevada and Ohio Polls from CNN/Time
Opinion Research polled these races in addition to WA-Sen, which is on the front page, and you can find them using the link provided there. The numbers (LV's):

NV-Sen
Angle 42, Reid 41, Ashjan 5, NOTA 11

NV-Gov
Sandoval 58, Reid 31, NOTA 10

OH-Sen
Portman 52, Fisher 41

OH-Gov
Kasich 51, Strickland 44

WA-Sen
Murray 53, Rossi 44

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


Not to sound too pessimistic
But I'm beginning to think Fisher is DOA.  

[ Parent ]
Yup, not a chance, this could be close to a 60-40 race.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
55-45 perhaps.

[ Parent ]
I'll go with that
Even Brown's victory back in 2006 when everything was going to hell in a handbasket for the Republicans was 56-44.

We lose either way, though. Can't say I'm feeling too good about the Midwest, between this and IN-Sen.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Brown
 Was running against Mike DeWine (R) who was an extreme conservative, he was a moderate. In fact, voters in Madison County in 2000 voted for the Democrat because DeWine had done some liberal environmental thing there the voters did not like.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
DeWine
Is running for state Attorney General this year.

http://www.mikedewine.com/


[ Parent ]
Too Early To Say, I Think
If there are 2 states where the national party is likely to throw giant buckets of money and resources onto the ground (in anticipation of 2012) they'd seem likely to be OH and PA. Not saying that'll be enough to push Fisher to victory. But I think it will help.

[ Parent ]
Except if these polling results are consistent,
I doubt they will be throwing buckets of money at Ohio.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think they can allow
A blowout - too many vulnerable House races.

[ Parent ]
Cannot have a blowout
Like Pennsylvania, Ohio has simply too many House seats to completely throw a Senate candidate under the bus even if they are losing badly.  That said, the Republicans tried that in Pennsylvania with Santorum and they still lose 4 house seats in 2006.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Not that Brunner would be doing any better


[ Parent ]
Brunner would be doing a lot better...
She'd at least would be trying... Her campaigning skills were very strong... fundraising, not so much, but it seems that Lee has stalled on that one, too.

Every time Lee opens his mouth, Portman smokes him with a retort and Fisher goes whimpering home with his tail between his legs.  Brunner would have NEVER allowed that to happen time and time again.


[ Parent ]
^^^^This
I knew early on that when Fisher won the nomination we would be constantly hearing how Brunner would be doing so much better right now. I don't think so. If anything Brunner would be doing much worse. My guess is  that this race will be something like 56-44, could be worse IDK. With Brunner my guess would be a 62-38 Portman win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Bullshit...
Brunner brings out the base that Fisher does his best to ignore...  Brunner might not have been able to win the whole thing, but she sure as hell wouldn't be doing worse than Strickland (as Lee is).


[ Parent ]
I
fully disagree but honestly this debate is sooooo old its not funny and I don't want to have it. I know I commented, sorry, its my own fault. Let's just agree to disagree.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
What happened to the base
at the primary? If she couldn't even bring out the base then, how could she have had a shot in the general election?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Thank you, that's exactly right. Her organic support just isn't as large as...
...her supporters want to believe.

I'm actually astounded how intense a following Brunner has, first I've ever seen for a Secretary of State.  But her followers don't seem to realize their numbers are not as many as they think they are.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Fisher is DOA
Fisher and Sestak are both DOA.  Pennsylvania and Ohio are going to be complete bloodbaths.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Sadly, I increasingly think you're right. And it's not going to be much better in...
...most of the rest of the upper Midwest.

Minnesota will be fine, since they have an unpopular Republican Governor instead of a Democrat, and the new nominee is a whack job.  Bachmann, too, helps Democrats there by helping to marginalize the state GOP even further in voters' minds.

And it's an open question in Iowa whether Branstad will have coattails.  If Boswell survives and Democrats hold both state legislative chambers, it will be a disappointing night for the state GOP in what should have been their big comeback after many bad elections in a row.

The flip side of all this is that 2014 might be a good year for Democrats in a lot of places.  People like Brady and LePage (if he survives his poor campaigning) and some others who win governorships in blue states are not going to make it for reelection.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
CNN/OR poll is f**ked up...
And I'm NOT saying that just because they show Angle ahead among likely voters. Ralston tweeted earier that the internals show Reid barely ahead 42-38 in Clark County (Vegas) while sporting a larger 50-40 lead in Washoe County (Reno/Tahoe). That just makes no sense! There's no way in hell Reid is that close in heavily Democratic Clark while leading that strongly in closely divided Washoe.

Sorry, but I have to call BS on CNN for this.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
As has been explained here many times
It does not matter what the internals show. They have huge margin's of error.  

[ Parent ]
The last close GOP win in Nevada was Bush in '04
He won the state by 2.5 points (50.5-48) while winning Washoe by 4 (51-47) losing Clark by 5 (47-52.) I'm guessing that Angle will need to keep Reid to a 6 point victory in Clark and do at least as well as Bush in Washoe unless demographics have significantly changed in the last 6 years.

So if the poll's right--which it probably isn't--Angle is doing exactly what she needs to do in Clark and is getting away with losing Washoe. If she can improve in Reno, which is her home base, and keep things close in Clark, she wins.

I'm also surprised by the high support for Ashjan and NOTA. I think that some of the Ashjan vote may drift to Angle, but the NOTA option may be Reid's saving grace.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Sorry, but this poll is crap...
Every other poll's internals have Reid winning Clark by 10%+ and Angle winning Washoe by single digits. There's just no way in hell Angle is surging in Clark while Reid is simultaneously surging in Washoe.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
OH
I've never had alot of confidence in Fisher. Whats more worrying to me is that this and the Ras poll above are the first ones I've seen with Kasich above 50.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
NY AG Race
Richmond County (Staten Island) District Attorney Dan Donovan seems like the New York GOP's best candidate for winning a statewide election this year.  He did not face a primary.  The Democratic nominee for Attorney General, State Senator Eric Schneiderman, narrowly won the primary last night.  He campaigned to the left.  He has never been a prosecutor.  Kathleen Rice, a longtime prosecutor and current District Attorney of Nassau County, probably was a better choice for the Democrats to be their nominee for the position.  There is also Andrew Cuomo wanting Rice to win and Cuomo and Schneiderman having an uneasy relationship.
http://www.observer.com/2010/p...
How do you think the campaign between Donovan and Schneiderman will proceed?

two words
'CRAZY CARL'

[ Parent ]
Crazy Who? n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Carl Paladino


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I watched him on NY1 today
Here's the interview:
http://www.ny1.com/content/new...

All I can say is wow. He really is (to be polite) the "anti politician".

It's worth watching the video to see what Cuomo's got to deal with.

The sad thing is a lot of what he says is true which is why he can be so dangerous to a guy like Cuomo in a year like this.

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[ Parent ]
I want to see
the fantasy world you're describing where the candidate who tells the truth more often wins.

Surely if you freaked out about the Michael McMahon "Jewish money" thing you can't imagine that Mr. Racist Bestiality is actually a real threat to Cuomo.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I think it's the best chance the NY GOP has of winning a statewide race
Schneiderman's beloved by progressives, but I could surely see Donovan netting the 15-20% of Dems necessary for a GOP-er to prevail statewide. Inevitably, Schneiderman will be dogged by his hit-and-run incident and favorable comments on Al Sharpton.

Btw, just as disclosure, I plan on voting Donovan. I voted for Richard Brodsky in the primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Opportunity for NY GOP
Whomever is calling the shots at NY GOP needs to make this their focal point.  With the other statewide races practically conceded, turnout statewide will be light for both sides.  One way to drive Republicans to the polls is to attack the hell out of Schneiderman.  He is literally the kind of figure that can get people fired up to vote against them.  In a largely dull election at the top of the ticket, some nastiness would be a plus.  

Additionally, attacking Schneiderman might encourage more ticket splitting instead of straight voting.  If the Republicans can get people to vote for one of their candidates, they are bound to get more down ticket votes.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Meh…
My guess is that NY has elected more corrupt candidates and this will not be a high profile race. Cuomo and others should provide all the coattails he needs. Plus Donovan is far from perfect like everyone is making him out to be.
"I am not going to be a cop for Wall Street".
Granted I'm not from NY but this is probably a lean D at worst. Disclaimer, I would have voted Schneiderman in the primary and am glad he won.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I didn't realize he said that
I suppose that means he doesn't intend to aggressively prosecute fraud on Wall St.? I may choose not to even vote for AG if both candidates are really deeply flawed.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
That quote was really taken out of context
Basically Donovan was ask about the role of the AG's office and he said that the main statutory focus of the office should be on fighting corruption in Albany rather than on policing Wall Street.

I think he has a point. Personally I really wish the AG's office in NY went after Medicare fraud and political corruption more.

The question is what's more important to voters of NY. Do they what the AG office to be focused on putting guys like Pedro Espada in jail going or chasing out the chairman of AIG.

It's a valid electoral issue. I'm just not sure running against Wall Street in New York City is as effective as it is in other parts of the country.


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[ Parent ]
That isnt out of context at all
I linked to an article with that quote and he even said the office shouldnt waste it's time looking for fraud where it isnt.  He clearly wanted to make this point on top of just giving politically correct answer which was to leave it at Albany politicians.

He went out of his way to make those comments, getting into what the role office will also not be rather than just what it will.


[ Parent ]
Are you saying
the New York State AG can't walk and chew gum at the same time? How about prosecuting BOTH political corruption and Wall St. fraud? And yes, I do believe that fighting against Wall St. crooks is very popular with the people of this state, just not with the huge Wall St./banking campaign contributors.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Well
like Pan said you can do both.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Koch and Bloomberg both are endorsing Donovan
So that should give you some idea of the broad support Donovan might be getting.

Schneiderman ran a very smart campaign for a divided 5 way Democrat primary. He wrapped himself around the Working Families, Al Sharton, Albany wing of the party while the "reform" vote split 3 ways between Rice, Coffey and Dinallo.

Now he has to run in the general as a member of the leadership of the corrupt NYS Senate, as the candidate promising to give Al Sharton an annex to the AG's office and as the candidate of the Albany special interest.

Basically Donovan will paint Schneiderman as electing the fox to guard the chicken coop and he will get support from reform Dems and some of the good government press.

The question is do NY voters care enough or are knowledgeable enough about this kind of thing to make a difference in the generic Dem advantage.

The more this race is talked about the better it is for Donovan in my opinion.

Donovan is the best the GOP has in NY. He has been a pretty a political DA in Staten Island and has ruffled some feathers when he opted not to bow to political pressure and prosecuted the Conservative Party Boss and SI Boro President's James Molinaro grandson.

Usually in the you scratch my back world of NY politics back room deals to give breaks to relatives of your political allies are the norm.

When Donovan didnt play ball I gained a lot of respect for him. So like Andyroo312 I am seriously considering voting for Donovan too.



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[ Parent ]
How Is That Broad Support for Donovan?
Koch has been endorsing Republicans for decades and Bloomberg used to be a Republican.

[ Parent ]
In NY an endorsement from Koch and Bloomberg means something
Its a way of saying this guy is not a loon. Bloomberg can give you a lot of financial support (just ask Rep McMahon about that) while a Koch endorsement is usually a signal that the GOP candidate is not a loon and there is something wrong with the Dem (i.e. he's got a whiff of clubhouse or crazy about him).

Put it this way if Rice had won Koch probably would have endorsed her or stayed neutral.  

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[ Parent ]
And, I mean, I'm supporting Donovan
And, I probably support Dems about 80% of the time.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I don't see how I can vote for Schneiderman
because of the hit-and-run accident and, to a lesser extent, his role in the corrupt New York State Senate, so I may vote for Donovan, too.

However, I disagree with you about what a Koch endorsement means. Koch supported Alphonse D'Amato, too, who was as far right a senator as could ever get elected in New York in my lifetime, and also had been the head of the corrupt Nassau County Republican machine. I just took apart both of your claims about what a Koch endorsement means, didn't I?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Wait a sec...
Pan, I totally agree with you on the substance of what Koch's endorsement means I was just referring to how a Koch endorsement of a Republican is precived by the general voting population at large. Yes Al D'Amato is a creep. No arguement there!

But when Koch endorses a Repbulican it is often seen by the voting public at large as a seal of good housekeeping. In a way it is a signal that tells moderate Dems it is OK to vote for this guy even though he is Republican.

If you look back Koch's endorsement of D'Amato was a VERY big deal that helped Al out a lot. Koch's endorsement also was huge for Rudy in the 90's and Bloomberg in 2000.


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[ Parent ]
Without Koch's backing, D'Amato would've lose to Liz Holtzman in '80
Koch still has some pull among older, more moderate downstate Democrats.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
in the "just sayin" department...
Koch also endorsed George W. Bush.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I was away in College this weekend
and had no access to my computer. I knew the DE-Sen GOP primary was soon but assured myself of a Castle victory and didn't pay much attention. My clock-radio woke me up wit the news of some "stunning extremist teaparty candidate victory" on Ireland am.

Devestated. Lost a safe senate seat. This is our Coakley.


The dreaded Coakley comparison
is hardly fair to Castle...  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Coakley smokely
The Dems lose their first senate seat seat since 2004, and every republican has to make some comparison to it.

BTW, Coakley lost the general election.  Castle lost the primary.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
big fat foakley
named bender.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
John Dingell in trouble?
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Seriously?
I doubt it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
How exactly is Politico considered a reliable source of journalism
when they write articles like this bit of concern trolling. There's exactly one quote in the entire article, from an anonymous source (Politico's favorite kind). The rest is supposition from some "meeting" (no source) and an attack website that probably cost the state party about $500 to set up (seriously, do those things ever actually do anything to sway voters?).

Dingell's in a D+13 district, and he's been around forever; if he's going to lose, Democrats may as well give up, because they'll end up with about 100 seats in the House.


[ Parent ]
If Dingell loses
We are in for an exciting, wild night. I seriously doubt he is in trouble. Just trying to raise some money so he can give more to the DCCC.  

[ Parent ]
My thougths exactly
Raise some money to transfer to the DCCC and perhaps divert a small bit of money and attention from the RNCC to test the waters. If Dingell is in trouble, well we better bar the door, because seats across the nation we think are safe are almost certainly in trouble as well.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
I agree that Dingell isn't.
Just reporting the article. Would love to see him go though in 2012.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
You know....
I can almost see this. The seat has been held by John Dingell (Sr or Jr) since 1933. If Dingell wins re-election and serves his term, that would be 80 years (!!!!) This is a bad year for Michigan Democrats, the district's been hit as hard as any by the recession, low enthusiasm in Ann Arbor this year, low black turnout (12% of district), the dude is ancient and the opposite of change and new ideas.......God, this could be the upset of the century.

Who am I kidding. Not gonna happen. But man, would that be one heck of a crazy turn of events.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Bachmann pisses off Sportsmen groups
In 2008, MN voted on a constitutional amendment to raise our states sales tax by 3/8 of 1% and spend it on outdoor recreation and sporting and also on the arts.  Bachmann told Sportsmen groups that she sported this amendment.  They just found out she doesn't support it actually.

While this district does have some suburbs, it is mainly rural and exurban and if this were to get enough traction, pissing off the hunters and fishers would not be good.  In middle school and high school, on the opening day of deer hunting season, about 1/5th of the guys would be gone.  And these are the ones who are pretty much her base as they are generally conservative folk.


CA-Sen: Fiorina launches HP-focused website to counter Boxer's attacks
There's no running away from her shitty career at HP


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Gene Taylor Supports Repeal of HCR
Ya'll have been at this longer, so you know more. Is this just classic Gene Taylor? Or is he really worried about November, or, even preparing for a party-switch if Republicans need one seat or take the house?  

Classic Gene Taylor.
I bet you he won't be voting for Pelosi next year, and he'll be voting for Hoyer. HE used to vote or Murtha.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
You live in AL-02 sometimes?
What are your observations on the race there?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
You
can go into the Women in Congress diary and scroll down the bottom to see a longer discussion on Bobby Bright.

I lived in Alabama 2 as my home until December 2009, and then moved out to California. My job requires me to return there for good lengths of time and...

Bright seems to be on his way to a 55-45 victory. He is extremely popular in Montgomery, and he is extremely popular in Wiregrass. Normally a first term incumbent not of Gene Taylor or Mike Ross's strength would be done in 2010, but Bright grew up in Wiregrass (the real Republican regions of this district), and has extremely close connections with them. Obviously, Montgomery is where he was Mayor. To many people in Southern Alabama, it's like "sending one of your own" to Congress. (to use a RuralDem phrase) People hate the HCR bill and are happy Bright voted no, and is still sending the bacon back to the district. I remember one staunch conservative Republican (a Jim DeMint kind) saying they really liked Bobby (as he is known), and would send him back because he's voted the right way and he remains in touch with his constituents. The 52-42 internal poll that the DCCC released (or was it Bright?) seems to be about right. Bright would make a great Governor of Alabama. If times are right, I would want to see him run in 2014, instead of (gasp) Charles Barkley.

And by the way, the myth that Bentley or Shelby's coattails will bring down Bright is not true. 95% of the local offices are Democratic.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
He'd be fine in the Senate
He keeps his head down and does his thing and I can live with that.  Maybe we'll be at a not so awkward cloture needing time-frame so he can vote down whatever and not stand in the way if we have an okay majority.

[ Parent ]
No way he switches.
Parker Griffith's loss taught them all an important lesson.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Thats what Im saying
He is supporting repeal so there is NOTHING they can throw at him.  

[ Parent ]
Major Difference
There's one major difference between Griffith and Taylor.

Griffith was somewhat liberal before he was sent to Congress then suddenly discovered he was conservative. Neither side trusted him.

Taylor's been the same since day one (as far as I know). What you see is what you get.

I do not think the GOP would welcome him due to his populist streak on economic issues. He represents his district and, as you can tell from the HCR debate and his criticism of the GOP during Katrina, he's more focused on his district than any party.


[ Parent ]
Why would he switch now when he could've switched after 1994?
Seriously, he would've been welcomed with open arms by Gingrich and company. Today, he'd be teabagged out of existence in two years.

[ Parent ]
Classic
That's just Gene Taylor, nothing to see here.

When it comes to him switching, I really do not see why, or how, he could do it. Sure, I've read he usually skips major party functions, and yes, he's an old-fashioned Southern Democrat.

However, he's got a populist streak in him that I doubt would go over well with the GOP. He was a staunch critic of the GOP, especially the Bush administration, during Katrina. He's a staunch opponent of NAFTA and other free trade deals, and he puts balancing the budget over tax cuts.

Taylor's been in the party long enough that there's no reason for a party switch. His Congressional District had already experienced the switchover from Conservative Democrat to Conservative Republican before he came along. He survived the wave of 94 and is in good shape this year too.

There's no reason for him to switch. He's got a reputation as a Conservative Democrat with a populist streak and the GOP cannot paint him as being liberal.


[ Parent ]
Your assessment is spot on IMO
Taylor has no need to change his political affiliation. He can win as a Democrat and would derive no political benefits from a switch.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Yup that's classic Gene Taylor
You only need to look at his district and realize why.

It's up there with Chet Edwards as one of the most Republican district held by a Dem.

And no, I don't think he'll switch, there is no way the GOP would give him the same amount of independence he gets from the Dems

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  


[ Parent ]
Yup that's classic Gene Taylor
You only need to look at his district and realize why.

It's up there with Chet Edwards as one of the most Republican district held by a Dem.

And no, I don't think he'll switch, there is no way the GOP would give him the same amount of independence he gets from the Dems

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  


[ Parent ]
Christine O'Donnell claims to have raised $750k since last night
http://twitter.com/ChristineOD

"In the last 24 hours, we've raised $750,000!"


Heh, at least it's distracting conservatives from Sharron Angle.
Throwing money at O'Donnell is like throwing money into a sink hole.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yeah
On her website, they have a running total of online donations.  

[ Parent ]
I guess she'll have a really nice apartment for two months.


[ Parent ]
she's buying a condo with that kind of money!


[ Parent ]
Useful as flaming dog do do <nm>


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
PPP generic ballot
We found a 45-44 generic ballot lead for Democrats on this poll but it's among registered rather than likely voters and as we've said repeatedly the party's problem this year isn't really that voters are abandoning it but that its own voters aren't planning to come out to the extent they need to.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


So, why aren't they releasing their likely voter generic ballot?
They're all about the "likely voter" screen, but they don't release this one?  Disappointing to say the least!

[ Parent ]
Oregon SUSA Poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Former Portland Trailblazer Dudley has 49%, former Governor Kitzhaber has 43%

In an election today for  United States Senator  from Oregon, Incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden defeats Republican law school professor Jim Huffman, 54% to 38%


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Sigh. Another SurveyUSA poll, Oregon-GOV
Dudley (R) - 49%
Kitzhaber (D) - 43%

http://www.katu.com/news/local...


What are Oregonians liking
about Dudley as a Gubernatorial candidate?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
It's not his free-throwing percentage.
Ugh, this is insane.

[ Parent ]
11 hours left to vote on PPP's next poll
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

It's going to be Wisconsin or West Virginia. Wisconsin is currently leading by 6 votes.


Come on, people, let's vote WV
Wisconsin is an interesting race but it's going to be within a point or two for the foreseeable future unless someone does something stupid. West Virginia is developing quickly and we've yet to see non-Rasmussen polling there.

They're also going to CA and MI next week. I wish they would skip Michigan, which has no competitive races this year, and poll Connecticut or Colorado instead.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
MN Gov
A KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll

Dayton (D) 38%
Emmer (R) 36%
Horner (IP) 18%
Other/undecided 9%

No Link yet, it should be on KSTP's website sometime tonight.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


This race is reminding me of MN-Sen 2008
Where a lot of people found both candidate crappy and now the third party is sliding up the middle.  And this time it isn't because they both were campaigning very negatively and Norm was smarmy and Al not Senatorial.  This time it's both budget proposals are the extreme.

I will say now that if Horner is able to get ads going and be known, he could make something happen here.  And I will say now I bet the largest paper, the Star Tribune, will endorse Horner.  I read the paper every weekday and they are really painting a narrative.


[ Parent ]
rather
painting this narrative

[ Parent ]
Crosstabs
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
LA-2: Indy Dems had been worried about drops out
http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

There was real fear that lawyer Ron Austin could peel off some Democrats.  By dropping out now Austin won't be on the ballot, which is good news for Cedric Richmond.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



NRCC adds 18 Young Guns.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Don't know where they'll get the money to fund 75 "Young Guns," and they probably won't.  But they are handing out their plastic badges and toy pistols to 18 more make believe deputies.  How ridiculous are the Dems that they are about to hand these imbeciles a landslide?

REGULATORS, MOUNT UP!!!

CA-47 - Tran
CO-03 - Tipton
CO-07 - Frazier
GA-02 - Keown
GA-08 - Scott
IL-17 - Schilling
MN-01 - Demmer
MO-04 - Hartzler
NC-07 - Pantano
NC-08 - Johnson
NC-11 - Miller
NH-01 - Guinta
NH-02 - Bass
NY-01 - Altschuler
OH-18 - Gibbs
WI-03 - Kapanke
WI-08 - Ribble
WV-03 - Maynard

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Harry Reid writes O'Donnell's first attack ad.
Reid says some seriously weird shit from time to time.  This was a little creepy.  Would anyone out there consider it a good thing to be Harry Reid's "pet."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Oh, god damn it


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
What's worse...
... to be influenced by the party leader in the senate and to owe him some political loyalty, or to defraud one's own campaign staffers?

Seriously, this issue needs to be hit hard. O'Donnell is a corrupt fraudster whose past supporters have spoken out against. I know it's much more fun to mock her for her "every sperm is sacred" views, and I'm just fine with a little of that too, but the more serious issue is that she lacks the competence that senators should have.


[ Parent ]
Annoying...
...but, will be overshadowed by O'Donnell's craziness/incompetence  Coons can say that Reid's a fool if he thinks that Coons is anybody's "pet" and present some independent thought after that.  Not a big deal in the long run compared to everything else...  still, irritating and unnecessary.

[ Parent ]
Dumb, dumb, dumb
Although their personalities are totally different, he's got a lot of Joe Biden in him.

[ Parent ]
Ew. I mean...REALLY?! sdajsajkadsjsadjjsdk
Yeah, there's no way I'm moving this thing into Safe Dem.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Generic ballot tied among LV's?
So says GW/Battleground poll dones by Lake Research and Tarrance Group.  Tarrance Group has had some apocalyptic results for Dems in individual races.

Could this be real movement?  Could the tax cut debate be helping Dems?  Also, this shows a relatively low (8 point) enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans.

As always, grain of salt and wait for confirmation.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Poll
Confirmed a bit by the CBS/Times poll.  And Battleground has generally leaned Republican in its presidential matchups.

I think Dems may have bottomed out around Labor Day, and are beginning to edge upwards in terms of enthusiasm.


[ Parent ]
NYT does seem to provide some confirmation and it
very cleverly hid its bottom line numbers in the article.  Had to get into the weeds of the polling memo.

40-36 for Dems among RV's.
40-38 for Republicans among LV's.

Here be the polling memo:

http://documents.nytimes.com/n...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Plus we had the PPP poll showing a one point D
lead among RV's.  These three polls are going to do wonders for the pollster.com graph.  Be still my heart!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Coons by 11 in Rasmussen poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Confirms the PPP number, when the Rass bias quotient is factored in.


So, he's probably up by a little under 15%
Let's see how the debates go. For all we know, Coons could be a weak candidate on the stump.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
You
don't think O'Donnell is better do you? I don't care if Coons runs a horrible campaign he will still win by at least ten points. All he has to do is wrap up the dem vote and he will be fine. No dem is going to vote for O'Donnell. I seriously doubt many independents would and I think there is a good chunk of Republicans who will never vote for her. Didn't exit polls say that 44% of Republicans would not vote for her? This is likely D in my book. Coons go take a vacation you are about to start a new job in a few months and need to be well rested.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
No vacations please
Not after MA-Sen. The 44% was from the PPP poll.

[ Parent ]
I
don't want Coons to literally take a vacation, my point is that he could take one if he wanted to and still win. O'Donnell is NO Scott Brown. She is unelectable to the max. I see no possibilities where O'Donnell wins. None at all.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
NY-Gov: Lazio may debate Cuomo and Paladino
http://capitaltonight.com/2010...

Looks like Lazio may campaign on the Conservative line, after all.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Keep in mind that it is Mike Long (and not Rick Lazio) saying this!
Mike Long the Conservative Party boss needs the Party to get 50,000 votes in the Governor's race to keep the Conservative Party's ballot status.

So Mike Long will do and say anything to keep his candidate (Rick Lazio) relavant and running.

After the thrashing Lazio just took at the polls in the primary, I just cant see Rick Lazio having the stomach for further embaressment.  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
OH-Gov: Kasich catapults to 17-point lead
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x132...

Wait...what's that sound I hear? Ah, yes. Democrats pulling out of Ohio.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast



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