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NH-Sen: Ayotte Defeats Lamontagne

by: James L.

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 1:23 PM EDT


Per the Union Leader:

Kelly Ayotte wins U.S. Senate primary, defeating Ovide Lamontagne by more than 1,600 votes.

Note: The final projection by the boys down at SSP Labs last night was Ayotte by 1838.

A total missed opportunity for the Tea Party Express (as was the surprisingly soft showing of Charlie Bass in NH-02 for like-minded movement conservatives). Oh well - we'll always have Christine!

UPDATE: The final tally is Ayotte 53,055, Lamontagne 51,377 (a spread of 1,678).
James L. :: NH-Sen: Ayotte Defeats Lamontagne
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NH-Sen: Ayotte Defeats Lamontagne | 54 comments
Ran out of time
Shame. Very interested in what PPP now have to say on Ayotte-Hodes. There is material there and she has already taken some damage.
Prediction
Hodes 51
Ayotte 49

(Too soon?)

I predicted a Lamontagne win, though (by one point, 38-37, I think). I tend to project my progressive electoral sympathies into my forecasting. Not good.

By the bye, doesn't Lamontagne sound like a great name for a car dealership?

Lamontagne Chrysler Jeep Eagle. Make us a deal.

[ Parent ]
Correction
I predicted 36-35, Lamontagne.
[ Parent ]
too-early prediction
Ayotte 52 Hodes 47. Ayotte is a question mark, but I suspect that voters will see her as closer to Judd Gregg than to Bob Smith. Hodes would have won this in 2008.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Ayotte certainly is not looking as strong as she once did, and Hodes has been getting his campaign in stronger form lately. He should be able to go after some of the more extreme positions that she took during the primary. Ultimately, this year is all going to be about bringing down the favorability ratings of Republicans, pointing out their ethical problems and corporate-friendly tendencies. The Democrats who are successful at this will definitely do much better.
[ Parent ]
what were some of the positions
That she took in the primary?
[ Parent ]
Damn
But I'm not giving up on New Hampshire. It's possible that Ayotte is damaged enough to give a boost to Hodes. And, maybe we'll have a reverse Delaware, where the Tea Party stays home in November.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
Also, NH-02
What I can discern from the Bass-Horn results is this: perhaps with the exception of Bass' home turf near Concord, Bass needs to do well in the towns that preferred Horn in the primary as opposed to the towns that went for him in the primary, most of which are likely to be friendlier to Democrats.

It's not the same exact voters obviously, but Bass could find himself in trouble if unhappy arch-conservatives stay home in significant numbers because their favored candidates lost.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Teabaggers won't stay home
They will vote for their Republican candidates, regardless of who wins the primary.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
TPX stayed out because of Palin...
This is unfortunate as Lamontagne was much likelier to beat.  Ovide was polling equal with Ayotte against Hodes, but his favorables were 15 points higher.  Ayotte as the front runner faced the negative attacks from all comers, whereas Lamontagne hasn't faced nearly as much mud slinging in his direction.  Ayotte is basically bottomed out her favorables in that everything that can come out already has, and she's still polling ahead of Hodes.  

Not to mention Hodes hasn't faced any negative attacks, so if anything Ayotte will probably widen her lead on Hodes.  

Yup great night for Palin

[ Parent ]
Negatives on Hodes
My friends who live up here say there's been a non-stop drumbeat of anti-Hodes stuff from the Chamber of Commerce on the air.  They might be exaggerating, but I've gotta think that's part of what's giving him trouble.  Hopefully that means that some of whatever damage is going to be done on him has already sunk in, and he has less far to fall.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.
[ Parent ]
Your friends are right
The Chamber of Commerce has made a seven-digit ad buy against Hodes. Brutal.
[ Parent ]
They've been on the radio since July
A pretty harsh attack on Hodes that uses an elderly woman as a narrator. Paraphrasing it to the best of my ability:

"The economy's in such tough shape today. I'm worried about whether I'll be able to pay my heating bills this winter. But Congressman Hodes voted for the Cap and Trade energy tax, which is going to make heating costs even higher for me. He must have no idea what it's like to be shivering in the cold in the winter, just wanting another blanket. Congressman Hodes must be a very wealthy man."

A male narrator goes on to say that Ayotte opposes cap and trade, vote for her, but the ad is from an outside group that I believe if the CoC, not the Ayotte campaign.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Ayotte has faced an onslaught and survived
Everything including the kitchen sink has been thrown at her, but she has survived.  

Further the lesson here is that if you are a moderate or establishment candidate, you need multiple teabaggers to pull out a victory.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
She successfully ran as a
teabagger/establishment hybrid.  
[ Parent ]
She's your average Republican politician
Selling her soul to please everyone within her party:  the conservatives and the fucking crazy lunatics wings of the GOP.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Nobody expected this to be close two or three weeks ago
While I hate to see her win, I think this shows that Kelly Ayotte is not as strong a candidate as the Washington Republicans thought she would be. While I still think she has the upper hand in the general election (for now), the fact that she barely won her primary against a candidate who last ran for office 14 years ago shows she has some definite vulnerabilities. We might have a better shot here than in Kentucky or Ohio.
Eh, many strong candidates
Didn't do well in their GOP primaries this year.  Her poor showing I think reflects just about zilch about her as a candidate save for that a group of morans didn't care for her too much.
[ Parent ]
Bummer
This is definitely a bummer as I really think that Ovie could have had a lot more new material for Hodes to pummel and go after. That said this definitely is a "lean Republican" race right now. Given how the state is I can see Hodes still winning this one but he's going to have to change the dynamic of the race. Seems as though Ayotte is not as clean as what she once once and she won the primary in a very unconvincing manner so I think Hodes has a shot here. Given the option of what happened last night with O'Donnell and Ayotte winning I'd have to take O'Donnell winning from a Dems perspective as it is very hard to imagine her beat Chris Coons even to the point that the DSCC may not need to invest any resources. I think that NH may soon warrant a DSCC investment as I believe that would be a better investment than say Missouri which they have invested in.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
I'm not certain this is bad for us
Unlike in DE-Sen, I've never been convinced that Lamontagne would have been the better bet for us.  Ayotte is one of a trio of GOP Senate candidates with similar characteristics: affable women with uncontroversial political backgrounds and extremely vague positions on issues.  The other two are Sue Lowden and Jane Norton, and as of now Ayotte is the only one of the three who's won her primary.  These candidates imploded not only because their vague positions didn't appeal to teabaggers, but also because their whole model of candidacy makes them vulnerable to a vigorous challenge.  Having no positions can make you seem to meet everyone's needs, but it can also make you easier to paint into a corner (just as Buck convinced GOP voters that the conservative Norton was in fact a moderate).

So I actually think Ayotte, particularly a bloodied Ayotte, is quite vulnerable to Hodes in November, provided Hodes steps up his game.  And on the flip side, Lamontagne was no Christine O'Donnell or Joe Miller.  He's an articulate and effective campaigner whose one weakness, his lack of money, would likely have been compensated for in November by outside groups.  I'm rather glad we got Ayotte instead, particularly since she may well be a better Senator than Lamontagne if she's elected.

Also, I know whom I DIDN'T want to face in November: Bill Binnie.  And we dodged that bullet without breaking a sweat.  So all in all, as good a situation as can be expected.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

The problem in NH
Is too many independents. Dems can still win in many places losing those voters, even by large margins, but not in NH. Hodes has a chance but the odds aren't great.
[ Parent ]
I'm going to be the wet blanket here
I agree with Conspiracy, Hodes has a chance. but not a good one. But as long as Ovid endorses Ayotte, there isn't any chance conservatives will sit on their hands in NH. In fact, I suspect national conservatives will enthusiastically back Ayotte as a contrast to Castle not backing O'Donnell.

I think Ayotte is rather well positioned for this election - she's perceived by independents as being not the most conservative option Republicans could have nominated, but she will have support of those conservatives as well.

Plus, Hodes has underwhelmed me as a candidate thus far.  

[ Parent ]
Ayotte is their strongest nominee because she's a Rorschach test......
She's whatever you want her to be, eye of the beholder.  That's why she can win conservatives and nonideological voters alike.

Lamontagne was easier to pigeonhole as a right-winger, and therefore easier to get swing voters away from him.

So we're a bit weaker now.

I think the jury's out whether the primary helps or hurts Ayotte, but I think in this case MassGOP might be right in his comment below that the battle helps her on balance.

We'll see if Hodes can make something stick the next few weeks.  If he doesn't move numbers soon, I doubt he can surge at the end.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The win means she's stronger than Norton or Lowden, though
Ayotte is one of the only NRSC preferred candidates who has won a strongly contested primary this year. If she were a weak candidate, she would have gone the way of Sue Lowden, Mike Castle, Jane Norton, and Charlie Crist, who didn't even bother to stick around and lose the primary. But winning the primary despite the presence of a conservative insurgent shows that she, like Dan Coats, Dino Rossi, and John Boozman, is not glass-jawed and actually has some chops on the campaign trail.

In a way, this primary was the best thing for Ayotte. She withstood some pretty nasty attacks and is now going to be ready for whatever Hodes throws at her.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Partially disagree
Norton actually got a higher percentage of the vote than Ayotte did.  The real difference was the implosion of Bender and especially Binnie as it looked like Lamontagne was surging: moderate Republicans jumped ship and went for Ayotte in order to keep Lamontagne out of office.  I agree that Ayotte doesn't suck as much as Lowden (in that race Tarkanian supporters could have gone for Lowden in the end to counteract the Angle surge, but didn't), but I don't see this as making her a particularly strong candidate.  I'm not saying she's not favored -- she clearly is -- but I think she is vulnerable, more so than Lamontagne would have been.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I see your argument
The only thing I really disagree with is that Ayotte is more vulnerable than Ovide. Hodes definitely has a shot at her, but believe me, NH Democrats wanted Lamontagne as their opponent. He has less potential to appeal to moderates and is easy to paint as too socially conservative for the state. Plus, he has less money and less access to national resources (as a Palin endorsee, I wouldn't be surprised if Ayotte got some Tea Party help down the stretch.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I agree that's what NH Dems wanted
I just think that Lamontagne has made a career out of surprising pundits, and he could easily have continued to do so.  He reminds me a lot of Pat Toomey: very conservative but articulate, intelligent, and likable.  In most cases, I wouldn't want to face a candidate like that.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Lamontagne's "career" is that he's a perennial LOSER. Remember he has never...
...been elected to office.

He was an upset winner in the 1996 NH-Gov(R) primary and then got crushed by Shaheen by 17 points at a time the state was still very Republican, far more red than purple.  He couldn't compete in November because he was, and is, too far right even for what was a conservative state.

He didn't run for office again until this year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The Toomey comparison only goes so far...
The comparison is pretty good, but I think their issue focus.  Lamontagne is far more socially conservative in ideology and focus.  Toomey never talks about social issues and has flip flopped all over the place since day one.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Ayotte survived because of Palin endorsement...
That kept the TPX from backing Lamontagne, and given how close it was, they would have easily made the difference.  

Palin backed Ayotte because she was the front runner from an early presidential primary state - the same reason she endorsed Branstad over vander Plaats.

Ayotte survived because of Palin's personal political interests.  If Palin would have endorsed Lowden or Norton that would have probably been enough to save them as well.  

[ Parent ]
Im glad Im not the only one
Who noticed all the women running for Senate this year.  It's really a shame most of them were only good on paper and fizzled out.  Or are like Angle/ODonnel who are fucked up in the head or the pair in CA who decided they were rich and should just jump into politics without having even voted this past decade.

If we had gotten beat by Norton and if we do by Ayotte, at least there was a silver-lining of getting more intelligent women in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
NH
I am well on record here stating how bad Hodes has been as a candidate and I stand by that.  The only person who could have won this would have been Lynch.

Ayotte 56
Hodes 44

29/D/Male/NY-01

I agree
Although I'm not sure Lynch would win. Joe Manchin isn't exactly tearing it up in WV despite high approvals.
[ Parent ]
Manchin did the most important thing
which was to scare Shelley Moore Capito out of the race.  Once he did that, he could skin an elephant on national TV and still win.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
You forget that there is a very large
pro-elephant skinning vote in WV.  
[ Parent ]
Ha!
[ Parent ]
LOL! n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
We can talk when there's a non-Rasmussen poll in WV
nt

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I don't think it mattered much who won
It would be lean R either way.  Ayotte was bloodied by the primary and by the controversy in her office.
Bender Bending Rodriguez
you haz some splaining to do.  
Minor correction to the vote total Update
The rather primitive New Hampshire Secretary of State results page gives Ayotte's final total as 53,044, not 53,055. Her margin is thus 1,667. (No breakdowns are yet available.)

Lamontaigne has until late this afternoon to request a recount, the margin being under 1.5% of the total vote.

The AP is still only showing 90.4% reported. No idea when they'll pick up the final totals, if ever.

Pretty high threshold for a recount
Usually it is .25-.50 percent.

[ Parent ]
I don't disagree
but it's what's being reported. New Hampshire being a small state, it's likely to be a difference of a couple of thousand votes, which isn't that much when you think about it.
[ Parent ]
Granite Grizzly
Sarah Palin, while endorsing Kelly Ayotte, called her the Granite Grizzly. Call Kelly Ayotte the Granite Grizzly whenever you refer to her, and that should drive her favorables down.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
PPP: Hodes down only 47-43 to Ayotte, still very much in the game!......
They've got Ayotte underwater at 35-47 favorables, virtually the same as Hodes' 35-46.

More fun here:

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

This is better than I expected from PPP for the November numbers.  I trust their latest DE and NH polls since they were good on accuracy in tough-to-poll primaries.

If Hodes can capitalize, he's got a real shot.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

I'd feel better about this if Hodes were a better campaigner
I also have to echo what someone else said earlier - Ayotte has had to take a lot of shots from all sides, and she's still beating Hodes. He has too, I understand, from the Chamber of Commerce among others. But in the end, she gets Ovid's endoresement, I think she's hard to beat, especially by Hodes.

This is still Lean Republican, if you ask me.  

[ Parent ]
Hodes is still the second best Dem in NH
Only Lynch would have been a better recruit for the DSCC, and he had no interest in making the jump.

I'm curious as to why people think Hodes is so awful. He represents half the state in Congress and presents himself better than Carol Shea-Porter, who represents the other half, does. He's down because this is an awful year for a Washington Democrat to win an election to higher office, but I think we need to remember that he's still a pretty good candidate.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
For me, I guess it comes down to the fact that he's not a very good fundraiser
And I've seen a couple of NH commentators (not neccesarily on this site) suggest he's not the most exciting person on the stump.  
[ Parent ]
The only reason he's "so awful" is he has run a poor campaign......
He hasn't done well on fundraising or message development, those are the knocks against him.

No one knocks him as a Congressman.  He's well-liked and respected on our side of the aisle.

It's simply that he hasn't run a good Senate campaign.

His mistakes in messaging are correctible.  It's a little late to improve fundraising, but the DSCC surely will do its own polling and, if their private numbers so as tight a race as PPP, they'll buy ads here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Money
I have to really agree with you that this place is one place where the money can make a difference. I think that the DSCC has to really think about where they are spending and likely allocate funds to Wisconsin, Washington and Colorado to defend those seats and NH probably makes the most sense to target as Ohio is a very expensive market and Portman has tons of cash, Missouri/Kentucky are very tough environments. California and Illinois are extremely expensive and I'm not sure the investment would be as wise there.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
I agree it's lean R, not tossup, but it was "likely R" in my book before Labor Day......
Hodes' standing has improved, period.  And he's in striking distance with plenty of time to make it a tossup.

Agree that Hodes hasn't campaigned well.  But Alex Sink, too, was crappy, and yet has seized the opportunity handed her and now has a narrow lead that she seems to be maintaining with a better campaign.  So candidates can and do learn sometimes.  If I'm the DSCC, I'm grabbing Hodes aside and having a heart-to-heart about what to do going forward.  No they can't legally coordinate activities, but the DSCC can legally advise, and the timing is right if a proverbial "come to Jesus" talk hasn't already taken place.

Frankly I don't think a Lamontagne endorsement matters.  The PPP numbers show Ayotte already has consolidated the Republican vote and the conservative vote.  Undecideds are about the same across the partisan and ideological spectra.

Really Hodes needs to go hard negative on Ayotte, find a good theme that sticks, and also define himself better.

The fact that he's still in striking distance even after he's been attacked on TV and radio for months and hasn't campaigned well also shows Democratic staying power in NH.

I wrote off this one some time ago, but now I'm revisiting it.  There's real hope here, let's not just sneeze at it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, okay - I never had this as likely Republican
I've always thought Hodes has a shot. I'm still pessimistic though. Hopefully I'm wrong. I'm happy to revise my thinking if Hodes does make a move in the next couple of weeks.  
[ Parent ]
Ive always had it in between
Lean and Likely as Im a really indecisive person.

I put it at Lean now.

[ Parent ]
NH-Sen: Ayotte Defeats Lamontagne | 54 comments

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