Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 9/14 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 8:06 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: Man, we are seriously close! Just $195 away from our goal of raising $2,400 for Dem Scott McAdams in the topsy-turvy Alaska senate race. We have 64 contributors right now - I'd love to see us get to 70 before all is said and done. And if we hit our target now, you get to stop seeing nags from me!
  • DE-Sen: One final (?) independent expenditure report from the Tea Party Express, good for another $20K of media on Christine O'Donnell's behalf. Damn this one ought to be exciting tonight.
  • CA-Gov: Gah, this is just unspinnably bad. Meg Whitman releases an ad featuring footage of Bill Clinton attacking Jerry Brown in the 1992 presidential primary, so what does Brown do? He calls Clinton a liar - and manages to make a crack about Monica freakin' Lewinsky. (Talk about stuck in a time warp.) After a day, Brown finally apologized.
  • FL-Gov: Alex Sink secured endorsed from two top law enforcement groups: the Fraternal Order of Police and the Police Benevolent Association. Her campaign says it's the first time in two decades both orgs have endorsed a Dem (the FOP hasn't does so in 16 years).
  • KS-Gov: Live by the bailout, die by the bailout. Dem Tom Holland smacked Republican Sam Brownback during a recent debate for supporting a $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - leaving Brownback to sputter that he voted against the bailout. Well, yeah, he voted against the infamous TARP. But Holland had him dead-to-rights on a separate vote, from July of 2008, which did in fact provide money to prop up the two government-sponsored mortgage enterprises.
  • ME-Gov: Watch GOP nominee Paul LePage get seriously testy when reporters ask him about the fact that his wife received homestead tax exemptions for properties in both Maine and Florida in 2009. (More details here.)
  • FL-02: Hah! This is why it pays to keep good records! Republican Steve Southerland claimed on a radio show that he had never donated money to Allen Boyd - so Boyd's campaign dug up a $100 check from 1997 (!) that Southerland had made out to Boyd. Nice work!
  • FL-08: Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is out with her first TV ad of the cycle - notable, of course, because you don't often see third-party candidates on the air (especially two months out from election day), and also because Dunmire has claimed she plans to put $250,000 of her own cash into the race.
  • IL-14: Idiot: GOPer Randy Hultgren made two separate contributions (totaling $2,000) to his federal campaign committee... from his state campaign committee. That, my friends, is not allowed (and which is why Hultgren is returning the money).

  • MI-01 (PDF): Republican Dan Benishek is touting an internal poll from TargetPoint Consulting, showing him with a 54-31 lead over Dem Gary McDowell. The polling memo is written in a pretty grossly sycophantic way, and my spidey sense is twigged enough for me to wonder if the ballot test was asked up top, or after some axe-grindy "issue" questions.
  • TN-04: Republican Scott DesJarlais is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies, showing him four points behind Dem Rep. Lincoln Davis, 45-41. Note to TargetPoint Consulting: This is how a polling memorandum should look.
  • DCCC: Reid Wilson has a detailed report on the D-Trip shifting ad money around, but really, it doesn't sound very good to me. In the waning days of WWII, my dad (in Poland) would tune in to Nazi-censored radio reports about the German troops "consolidating their positions" or "shifting to more strategically advantageous territory," etc. It was all bullshit-speak code for "we're retreating." So you tell me if you think the DCCC is reducing its ad buys in Arizona because vulnerable Dems there "are running stronger than expected campaigns," or if that, too, is bullshit. Similarly, should we be happy that the Dems are cancelling buys in North Dakota? Of course, those radio broadcasts my dad listened to were in fact good news....

  • Chicago-Mayor: I don't know if we'll be able to keep up with what I'm sure will be an avalanche of candidacy announcements, but former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun says she's throwing her hat in the ring for the Chicago mayor's race.
  • SSP-TV (written by James L.):

  • AL-02: The DCCC, as part of its huge $1.2 million ad reservation on behalf of Dem Bobby Bright, is hitting Martha Roby for being funded by "special interests working to privatize Medicare." The ad is no longer publicly available on YouTube, though.
  • AZ-01: Rogue dentist Paul Gosar hits Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick over spending in irritatingly-produced ad
  • AZ-05: David Schweikert attacks Harry Mitchell on taxes, bailouts, the stimulus, and (ironically) negative ads
  • AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly dubiously claims that he's running to protect Social Security (despite last year saying: "I would love to eliminate the program.")
  • CT-04: Dan Debicella goes after sophomore Dem Rep. Jim Himes on the usual GOP complaints
  • FL-22: Allen West hides the crazy in his new ad, instead hitting Dem Rep. Ron Klein on the economy
  • HI-01: Democrat Colleen Hanabusa reintroduces herself to voters
  • IA-03: GOPer Brad Zaun calls fans of government shrinkage to join his campaign
  • IL-10: Bob Dold! points the finger at Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform for economic malaise
  • NM-02: Steve Pearce says he'll create jobs somehow
  • MI-07: Mark Schauer gets a bunch of angry seniors to berate ex-Rep. Tim Walberg over his scary views on Social Security. I like this one.
  • MO-03: Republican Ed Martin airs his first ad touting his efforts to save jobs
  • OH-01: Dem Steve Driehaus says that Steve Chabot won't stand up to the Tea Party
  • SC-02: Joe Wilson, via a retired General, hits Democrat Rob Miller on receiving fundraising assistance from MoveOn.org. His second ad touts his job platform. On a related note, Joe Wilson has a startlingly robotic voice - he sounds like something a Macintosh LC 630's speech synthesizer would be spitting out in 1994.
  • UT-02: Republican Morgan Philpot urges change in his first spot, and says that he's gonna "wear this sucker out" in ad #2
  • WI-08: Roofing contractor Reid Ribble touts his record of teaching high school volleyball
  • NRCC ads: AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/14 (Morning Edition)
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
    Print Friendly View Send As Email

    CT-Sen: Blumenthal up by 6
    Blumenthal 51 - McMahon 45

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

    Martha Coakley Part II here we come... too bad the batshit Republicans are going to waste away the opportunity of taking the Senate.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    It's not Martha Coakley, it's the fact that McMahon has carpeted the state with ads for the past three or four months.
    She's even advertising in Fairfield County (NYC media market). Blumenthal simply can't respond to that level of media saturation.

    [ Parent ]
    Should have went negative earlier
    Blumenthal should have went negative the day after the primary.  Even if she outspent him, attacking her would drive her numbers down obviously.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    and if he's up 6 without airing
    Hardly any ads, he should be in fine form once he starts.  Lots of things to attack McMahon on.  Brown is in a similar position but he is actually in the hole polling wise which means he needs to pick it up more vs Blumenthal who has a little more time before he needs to kick it in high gear.  

    [ Parent ]
    although every campaign
    Should be kicking it into high gear now.

    [ Parent ]
    There is no reason for Blumenthal not doing the same
    Blumenthal has a net worth in excess for $100 million. Even if he self funded a little bit he could have had enough cash to compete with McMahon.

    His massive cash disadvantage is a direct result of his decision to rely 100% on donations.

    Even if he gave himself a large LOAN (which he could have paid himself back later after he won) would have gone a long way to helping his campaign have enough cash to fight off McMahon's attacks.

    It just amazes me that a guy like Romonoff in CO was willing to sell his house to out into his Senate campaign while Blumenthal wont even fork over a year's worth of interest on his fortune to help out his campaign.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    No
    This poll is better for Blumenthal than it looks.  He has better favs/unfavs than McMahon, and the Obama numbers appear too low for CT.  Why?  Because it looks to me that the poll underestimated the percentage of Democrats as likely voters:

    In today's survey, conducted by telephone with live interviewers, Blumenthal leads 87 - 10 percent among Democrats and gets 47 percent of independent voters to McMahon's 46 percent. McMahon leads 91 - 9 percent among Republicans. Women back Blumenthal 56 - 41 percent, while men split 47 - 48 percent.

    With those numbers, Blumenthal should be ahead double of what he is with an average Democratic turnout in PA.


    [ Parent ]
    It was 38D-26R-36I in 2006
    Using that breakdown, it should be 52-44. So it doesn't seem like it's that far off.

    [ Parent ]
    So as long as McMahon doesn't take about a 15-point lead among independents, she won't win.


    [ Parent ]
    My suggestion is don't even pay attention to Indies here
    As I've said all along, it's all about McMahon netting about 20% of Democrats. 17% might even do. If such were the case, she'd probably naturally have a double-digit lead among Indies. As it stands, I don't think she's quite there yet, although I'd be hard-pressed not to label this toss-up/Tilt D. My model stands at...

    Democrat - 39%
    GOP - 31%
    Independent - 30%

    Blumenthal - 87/10/49 = 52%
    McMahon - 13/90/51 = 48%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    He means the CT 2006 turnout model per the exit poll. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I see that now
    Thanks.

    [ Parent ]
    See my comment below on more internals. In reality, Blumenthal is in good shape......
    It's too easy to overapply the Coakley analogy.  Brown successfully defined himself positively and made himself likeable, while Dems never successfully laid a glove on him.  McMahon, in contrast, is a polarizing figure.  Unless she gets an unbelievably favorable turnout model from Dems just not showing up to vote at all, her ceiling will be too low to get over the hump.  That the Governorship is open and Democrats are poised to take it for the first time in literally decades, combined with the Senate race and a couple competitive U.S. House races, will ensure that enough Democrats show up to get Blumenthal over the top.

    Remember, McMahon doesn't have any real crossover potential like Brown did.  As long as Democrats and Dem-leaners show up, they'll vote Blumenthal.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    And more: DSCC pushes back, and Blumenthal's polling even better (link)......
    Chris Cillizza posts on The Fix that the DSCC has Blumenthal up 54-39, and there are rumors that the Blumenthal campaign's own polling has him up 20.

    Ultimately I'm still not really worried about this one.  Blumenthal will win absent an unexpected new event dragging him down.  Even the Q-poll proves, as I explained in another comment, that Blumenthal is much more highly regarded by voters in every way than McMahon, and the topline probably shows her best-case result.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Oops, forgot the link, here it is......
    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Heh
    Rasmussen has better numbers for Blumenthal than Quinnipiac does on this race.

    [ Parent ]
    MI-01
    Skeptical as all hell about that poll.  My standard rural polling disclaimer applies especially since this district covers 30 counties and part of another.  It is roughly the size of West Virginia!

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    Never Heard of that "Pollster"
    Only 3,800 hits on Google (SSP already near the top), and they don't appear to be a proper polling firm.  

    I generally trust Repub internals from "real" polling firms, because those guys, like ours, do too much corporate/non-profit stuff to sully their reputations with overt propaganda. But if you don't know the polling firm is a legit polling operation, then they're suspect.  And these guys are suspect.


    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Q-poll gives Blumenthal smaller lead, but much stronger internals......
    The topline:  Blumenthal up 51-45.  Makes me nervous, justifiably.

    But the internals show that Blumenthal is in stronger shape than the topline suggests.  Favorability:  Blumenthal at 55-39, compared to 45-41 for McMahon.  Vietnam flap?  No issue, Blumenthal "honest and trustworthy" by 57-36 overall and 55-36 with indies, and 60% of voters, including 57% of indies, say explicitly the Vietnam flap itself "doesn't make a difference" in their vote.  Who best to bring "change"?  Not Blumenthal, only 45% say yes and 48% no......but it's the same 45-48 "no" spread for McMahon, so even on that point she has zero advantage.  On "right kind of experience" to be a Senator, it's 72-25 "yes" for Blumenthal, and an eye-popping 39-56 "no" for McMahon.  And on "shares your values," it's healthy 55-38 "yes" for Blumenthal, but only 49-42 for McMahon.

    It's actually stunning to look at these numbers and then see a topline showing just a 6-point lead.  That makes it obvious that the only thing hurting Blumenthal is the national environment.  This Q-poll has Obama's CT job approval underwater at 45-52, which contradicts Rasmussen's strong 55-44 showing for Obama in the state, but still it's the only explanation for Blumenthal not leading by a bigger margin.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Supporting more taxes on the wealthy
    may be hurting him in Connecticut, where the wealthy generally voted for Obama (as they did nationally >200K gave 52% to Obama).

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    Possible
    If that is occurring anywhere, it would be Connecticut.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I doubt it
    Obama ran on raising taxes on people making more than 200k a year; it was a major part of his campaign, the centerpiece of his taxation plan. Well-informed high income voters in CT knew this, and by large margin, (I'd say a nice bit larger than his national 52% vote share among that demographic), voted for him anyway. It was heartening to see people don't just vote with their pocket books in mind and that many of the wealthy, particularly in New England, have a strong sense of civic duty, something you don't see among rich white southerners.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    You listen to some in the corporate media, and they're shocked that Obama wants to let the tax cuts for high income taxpayers expire when he specifically ran on that.

    [ Parent ]
    He ran on it, but did not campaign on it
    Obama did not run hard on raising taxes for the rich and McCain really did not push him on it.  He ceded the rich when he nominated Wasilla's Village Idiot.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Huh?
    That's not how I remember it.  That's what the whole Joe the Plumber thing was about.

    [ Parent ]
    Did Joe the Plumber matter?
    For Sarah Palin he did, but his electoral significance was nothing.  Pretty much everyone I know on the right and left made fun of him.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Not the issue
    What is, is that the tax increase was an issue in the campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    Taxes were not on the radar
    Taxes and spending were not on the radar in 2008 and really have not been on the radar since the 1990s.  We have had "feelings elections" since then and no "wallet elections."  That is why I think this election cycle is so hard to predict.  We simply do not have the results recent enough in time to understand how a "wallet election" will happen.  That is why the conservaDems are going to hold on while many of the suburban moderates and progressives will lose.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Mmmm..
    I'm not even in the country, and I remember lots of prominent to and fro about Obama's tax plans - endless staggling, in fact, with the Republicans claiming he would Raise Taxes and the Obama campaign repeating over and over that anybody who earned less than $250,000 would see their taxes cut.

    As someone already pointed out above, that's how Joe the Plumber entered the spotlight - while nobody may have taken him seriously, the cue to his whole high-profile, high-media emergence was his stand-off with Obama about his tax plans.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    [ Parent ]
    Well, just like
    we have opposite views about where the political winds are going long-term, (I see the country as becoming more economically progressive and open to Keynesian economics, whereas you see them going more anti-government), I have to disagree over how big a deal Obama's tax plan was.

    Unlike you I don't think suburban voters are so marginally Democratic that they only vote for Dems like Obama and Kerry over social and war issues, I think those started it, but just like in the south, once former Democrats started voting Republican on a federal level over social issues, they quickly became a lot more economically conservative, irrevocably so. So, in general, I feel that any seats they may pick up this cycle will be do more to low turnout among minorities and young voters among other Democratic groups, and will be temporary gains in suburbia that will be won back, a lot of them, like PA-07, in 2012.  


    [ Parent ]
    FL-08: if the Tea Party ad buys really do have that kind of money behind them...
    ...then Grayson should win.  TV ads win votes, and that ad and is good enough to pull some conservatives toward Dunmire if she airs it enough.

    Grayson might end up being one lucky ducky.  Of course, his own money and ad buys certainly help.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Unless the Tea Party gets double digits
    I think Grayson is going down.  

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    No, Grayson doesn't need double digits at all. Grayson is not so easy to beat......
    Grayson has a profile that can get base Democrats to turn out higher than elsewhere, and he's not going to lose by a lot even if he does lose.  If the teabagger gets mid-single digits, that's likely enough to put Grayson over the top.  He's going to get in the mid-to-high-40s, no lower, in a 2-way, and a legit 3-way he'll win easy with that.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I agree with everything, but I don't think the tea party woman gets even mid-single digits
    Grayson is a polarizing figure on both ends of the spectrum, and Webster is pretty conservative in any event. Even with the tea party candidate spending 250K, it won't be enough to combat the Republican need to get Grayson out and their refusal to vote for a third party candidate who will split tthe vote.  

    [ Parent ]
    I don't disagree that Grayson is polarizing and could easily lose, but my view on the teabagger is..
    ...if she spends a quarter-mil in greens on actual TV ads, she's going to get serious votes to show for it.

    TV ads win votes, always.  And there are enough disgruntled voters out there for a teabagger with money and media to win a nontrivial percentage of their votes.  In other words, in this angry electorate there is more low-hanging fruit than normal within reach of a sufficiently visible local crank.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Normally, I agree, but I think this will be the exception
    Grayson is polarizing enough that even the usual local crank supporters will vote Republican to get him out of there.

    That's just my opinion, obviously - we won't know for sure until we hit November.  


    [ Parent ]
    Well I hope it gets tested, and this teabagger isn't blowing smoke regarding...
    ...what she'll spend.  If she's blowing smoke and doesn't spend, then we're in agreement that Grayson is unlikely to survive.

    But I still even then he loses only narrowly.  There's something about the guy that makes me feel he's a tough out.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    nope

    It's been a remarkably fast D-trending district.  He may be a bastard, but he's a lucky one holding a good hand.

    [ Parent ]
    It is, but I don't think he's holding a good hand
    This is what bothers me about Grayson: I think he's going to lose a seat he should easily be able to hold onto because he's so polarizing. The other side of the coin is that he will be able to turn out the base. Maybe, but he's also turned off a lot of moderate voters who will consider Webster (and probably not the tea party woman).

    We'll see who's right in November, I know a lot of people on this site disagree with me, and I think this is one of my rare points of disagreement with DCCyclone.  


    [ Parent ]
    Your dad survived the war in Poland?
    Wow.  

    Faux polls
    Courtesy of political wire:

    Florida: Marco Rubio (R) leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 27%, with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) at 21%.

    Alex Sink (D) is ahead of Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 49% to 41%.

    Nevada: Sharron Angle (R) edges Sen. Harry Reid (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 44%.

    Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) leads Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 41%.

    Ohio: Rob Portman (R) leads Lee Fisher (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 41%.

    John Kasich (R) is ahead of Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in the race for governor, 48% to 43%.

    California: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) edges Carly Fiorina (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.

    Meg Whitman (R) is ahead of Jerry Brown (D) in the race for governor, 49% to 43%.

    Not all that horrible.  Certainly better than Rass/SUSA.  Ohio and PA are within reach.  Nevada senate is within the MOE of the Mason-Dixon poll.  Sink looks like she's in good shape.


    Doesn't Fox use Ras?


    [ Parent ]
    They used them
    They used Rass in 2008 for their presidential polls. They use something else now I think.

    [ Parent ]
    This pollster, PULSE, is affiliated with Rass
    [ Parent ]
    More on PULSE

    Pulse Opinion Research licenses methodology developed by veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen, providing a survey platform for a host of clients, from individuals to special-interest groups. In fact, we provide the field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys.



    [ Parent ]
    lol
    So how is that different from actually using Rasmussen as a pollster?

    I don't get it.


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Allows Rass to flood the zone even more, without Faux having to say it's a Rass poll.  Pretty clever, albeit transparent.

    [ Parent ]
    All pretty believeable
    The only one that jumps out is Angle up by 1, but most recent polls have had Reid up by only 2 or 3, so this is within the margin of error.

    Does Fox usually put out GOP-leaning numbers, or are they pretty respectable when it comes to polling?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Does Fox usually put out GOP-leaning numbers
    Yes, they tend to.  Although not as bad as original Rass.

    [ Parent ]
    Um, "usually" isn't the relevant comparison, it's WHICH POLLSTER Fox uses that matters......
    Pulse is just Rasmussen by another name, so these Pulse polls ought to be treated as having the same GOP bias as Rasmussen himself.

    But Fox's national polling is by a different outfit that actually isn't bad.  What's sometimes bad in those polls is that Fox throws in loaded questions, just like Rasmussen does.  But you can tell that's Fox's doing, not the pollster's.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Fox News results
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    Looks like that last poll with the Rubio surge is correct when using likely voters

    Whitman +6 in California
    Angle +1 in Nevada
    Toomey +6 in PA
    Portman +7 in Ohio
    Sink +8 in Florida (yay!)
    Boxer +2 in California

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Rubio surge is real
    It makes sense that Rubio is consolidating Republicans.  Crist is just floating out in the wind and I would not be shocked to see Meek start gaining on his left flank.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Rubio looks like he's in great shape to win this with around 42 or so percent of the vote.

    [ Parent ]
    Curious Rubio/Meek
    I wonder what the results would look like if it was Rubio v. Meek in a two way race.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    My guess
    56-44 as the final result.

    It would be very tough for Meek to win, especially in this year. Plus, Rubio is honestly a great candidate. I think he's the best Republican candidate of the cycle politically.


    [ Parent ]
    Your way too generous to Meek
    Remember all that negative stuff that Greene was dishing on Meek would all come out in the general if it was a one on one with Rubio.

    With Crist in a 3 way no one is going negative on Meek giving him a free pass.

    I still think Meek best (and only) path to victory is if Crist moves right again to try to eat into Rubio's GOP vote.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Hrm...
    GOP - 38%
    Democrat - 32%
    Independent - 30%

    Meek - 5/83/42 = 42%
    Rubio - 95/17/58 = 58%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks
    I was waiting for you to provide those figures.

    How about if Meek got out of the way?

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    I would think...
    GOP - 38%
    Democrat - 32%
    Independent - 30%

    Crist - 13/93/54 = 52%
    Rubio - 87/7/46 = 48%

    That's presuming the same voter model as a Meek/Rubio race though. In a Crist/Rubio battle, I could see the Dem/Indie %s up a point each.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    That would require Meek to completely drop out
    I doubt Meek completely drops.  If he suspended his campaign, I suspect that Meek would still receive around 10%.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    VA-05: both sides internals' have Perriello trailing "narrowly" (link)......
    Good column by Stu Rothenberg on polling, and provocatively on his trusting partisan polls more than nonpartisan ones.

    But the kicker is where he disses the SUSA polling in VA-05 as "bizarre" and "a joke" and reveals that partisan polling on both sides shows Perriello losing only "narrowly" to Hurt.

    Rothenberg reveals what a lot of us here realized must be the case, but I know there were some here who insisted the SUSA poll was credible.  We now have confirmation that it's not.

    http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Regarding Your DCCC Buy Question
    I think it's good news in AZ. May be mixed news in IL. May be bad news in ND.

    Holland kicking a$$
    I'm loving me some Tom Holland, btw, Dana. In that State Fair debate--it's just so refreshing to see a Democrat throwing some punches (that are both true and relevant). And their response was so weak-sauce: "Oh, uh, Brownback voted for that bailout, but not that other bailout."  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    We're Having a Lot More Fun Than Team Brownback
    Glad you saw it. I don't think Sam Brownback or his team had any idea what was coming at them. I suspect they weren't too happy afterward.  And we sure as heck were.

    Can't wait for the next debate!

    BTW, what we're talking about is the KS gov race, where my candidate, Tom Holland, is starting to take it to Sam Brownback:
    http://tomhollandforkansas.com...


    [ Parent ]
    GA-Gov, LG, AG, School Superintendent, Sen: Shit
    http://www.13wmaz.com/news/bre...

    I do question the Libertarian numbers, however.  There is no way a Libertarian is going to get 9 points in the Governor's race.  Yes, Georgia Libertarians like to point out that Monds got like 33% of the vote in 2008's Public Service Commissioner race, but there was no Democrat running that year.  And Libertarians are getting 6 percent or better across the board.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    It's SUSA
    It SUCKSA.

    [ Parent ]
    As I posted in another comment, Stu Rothenberg thoroughly discredited SUSA today......
    Rothenberg wrote specifically of VA-05, and said the SUSA poll is a joke, that all the private polling on both sides has Hurt on top only narrowly.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Question A Lot
    Here's a link that includes crosstabs:

    http://www.11alive.com/news/lo...

    Once you start looking at Monds receiving 21% of the youth vote, more men voting than women, and the insane differences in independents, then it becomes clear that something is strange about this poll.

    Also, there's no way that Sam Olens is doing that well among Republicans. I believe he'll better than normal (for a Republican) with Democrats, while Hodges will do better than normal with Republicans. Olens has a lot of former Democratic ties in Atlanta, and Hodges has been gaining Republican endorsements recently.


    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov: Prior to Brown comments, Clinton had intended to campaign for him
    Dems withdraw some ad buys in Northeastern PA
    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    The DCCC's statement is absolute BS in regards to Kanjorski.  A pothole on I-81 in Scranton could beat Kanjorski this year.  

    Now in terms of Carney, I agree.  Marino has been a terrible fundraiser where as Carney is dominant.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    Agree on Kanjorski. But that seat will be one of our top targets in 2012......
    Barletta will be one-and-done, a common thing after wave elections.

    He's way too conservative for what is a decidedly Democratic district, and the Obama media-and-field machine will pull out all the stops there in 2012 as a major presidential battleground.

    This is the rare seat that I'm sure House Dems would have loved to have seen a retirement, but they didn't get it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I suspect Carney and Barletta trade seats
    The Republicans will essentially draw Carney into PA-11 and draw Barletta into PA-10.

    It is not shocking that Kanjorski was not primaried.  Pennsylvania politics are too machine driven to allow such things to occur.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    He was primaried


    [ Parent ]
    Not successfully...
    The machine saved his politically dead carcass.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Um, "not successfully" does not equal "not primaried." And there was no "machine"......
    Kanjorski didn't even reach 50% in the primary.  No "machine" is needed for a longtime incumbent to get 40something% in his own party's primary.

    The primary field was just too divided, Democrats couldn't unite behind a single one...O'Brien was ideal, but he just couldn't consolidate the crowd.

    It's the same situation as Dan Burton's......except that it's not a safe seat!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    CO-7: Ed Perlmutter out with first ad. A positive, feel-good one.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    CO-Gov: Tancredo releases anti-Maes ad.

    It appears that he is trying to marginalize Maes to consolidate the conservative vote.  Keep in mind that if the GOP Gov ticket gets less than 10% of the vote, the CO GOP will be reclassified as a minor party. http://www.denverpost.com/elec...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    This ad goes straight for the throat.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Yup, it's effective and punishing. Really, Tancredo's only shot is..
    ...to reduce Maes to local crank status.

    But that's not going to work against a Repubican nominee who won a contested primary to get his nomination.  For the reason alone of the contested primary against a former Congressman, Maes is not quite Alan Schlesinger.  And even if he's reduced to that, and gets just 10%, Hickenlooper still easily wins going away since Tancredo is despised by most voters.

    Hickenlooper will easily clear 50% on election day; my expectation now is that he'll finish around 55%, and he might even approach 60.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    What is your opinion of Ed Perlmutter's ad that I posted above?


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Good ad, I like it. It makes him likeable. What I don't know is...
    ...how strong is Frazier, financially and in polling, and what's going on locally in the district.  I think Perlmutter is a longshot pickup opportunity for the GOP, but obviously in this environment not completely out of the question.

    The ad itself is both positive and very different, and the grocery store thing is a unique gimmick that helps him.

    I fully approve of that message!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    CA-Sen: Boxer out with first TV ad. A positive one.

    Methinks it takes a veiled jab at Fiorina's apologist stance towards out-sourcing.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!



    Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

    Primary Sponsor

    You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

    Menu

    Make a New Account

    Username:

    Password:



    Forget your username or password?


    About the Site

    SSP Resources

    Blogroll

    Powered by: SoapBlox