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NH-Sen: Ayotte Up 7 on Late-Surging Lamontagne

by: James L.

Sun Sep 12, 2010 at 11:16 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 4/17-18 in parens):

Kelly Ayotte (R): 37 (43)
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 30 (5)
Bill Binnie (R): 13 (19)
Jim Bender (R): 12 (11)
Tom Alciere (R): 1 (1)
Dennis Lamare (R): 1 (-)
Gerard Beloin (R): 1 (-)
Undecided: 5 (21)
(MoE: ±2.9%)

"Sen. Lamontagne" may be a fridge too far, but there's no doubt that he's made a dramatic late run against front-runner Kelly Ayotte. Do you think the Tea Party Express is kicking itself for not making an investment here?

Meanwhile, in the gube race, ex-state HHS director John Stephen leads Jack Kimball by 45-24. No drama there.
James L. :: NH-Sen: Ayotte Up 7 on Late-Surging Lamontagne
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NH-Sen: Ayotte Up 7 on Late-Surging Lamontagne | 44 comments
I'm sad to hear that Lamontagne isn't closer to Ayotte
But I'm even more sad to hear from PPP's twitter that Both poll the same with Hodes. I guess if I were able to pick one, to win the primary, I'd choose Ayotte.  I do no know of any glaring negatives with Lamontagne, except that he is more conservative.

:(  I really hope Hodes pulls it out in Nov...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

On the other hand, that could be a good thing
Remember that a lot of crap has come out about Ayotte recently, so it's conceivable that her general election numbers are down (rather than Lamontagne's being significantly up). This could be a low single digit ballgame for Hodes right now.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Now that you say that
I remember back in July that Hodes was down 3 against Ayotte, but up 5 against Lamontagne, with Hodes at about the same percent against both of them

It could be that people have rallied behind Lamontagne, and Ayotte's numbers have become stale.

It also could be that Hodes is up against both, PPP never said who was up or not.

I can't wait till tomorrow.  

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the primary fight hasn't helped Ayotte...
And other recent polls showed her numbers slipping. Even if she survives this primary, it looks like her campaign will enter the general campaign quite bruised and weakened. We'll have to see the rest of the PPP numbers tomorrow to see just how much of a chance Hodes has now.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
The usual tea-scented suspects
are so divided here, I think that's one of the big stories of the primary. Ayotte's got Palin and according to this poll a lot of rank-and-filers. Lamontagne's got Laura Ingraham and the Union Leader. And so on.
Question
Is there any reason to believe to believe that Lamontagne would be doing as well against Hodes as Ayotte (either because Hodes is doing worse against Lamontagne or because he's doing better against Ayotte)?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
PPP is saying their GE numbers show that.
"Unlike Delaware it may not matter from a general election standpoint who the Republicans nominate in New Hampshire. Numbers we'll release later this week showed Ayotte and Lamontagne performing basically the same against Paul Hodes."
[ Parent ]
Our chances are better vs. Lamontagne no matter what PPP says......
Polling is static, campaigns are dynamic.  Polling sometimes misses predictable differences that won't display themselves until later.  Lamontagne is a controversial figure who a lot of the general electorate don't like or won't like upon being informed or reminded of his hard-right politics.  The same cannot be said of Ayotte.  Whatever PPP says, its polling doesn't capture that reality which has yet to be exploited.  If Hodes' campaign properly exploits it, he should beat Lamontagne.

That said, I don't feel as good about his chances as O'Donnell's in Delaware.

And, I'm not convinced Ayotte, if she wins, will be damaged in any meaningful way against Hodes.  Sometimes such damage is there, sometimes it isn't.  Dan Coats won only 39% as a former Senator and still isn't the least bit damaged against Ellsworth.  So we'll have to see.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Looking deeper into the poll....
Ayotte's biggest problem isn't Lamontagne. It's Binnie and Bender. She runs even with Lampntagne among conservatives--no small feat, given the cycle--and beats him 39-17 among moderates. But Binnie pulls 19 percent of the moderate vote and Bender pulls 15, and both do better their than with conservatives. Knowing Lamontagne's stances, most of those moderate Binnie/Bender voters would prefer Ayotte in a one-on-one.

Also, Ayotte leads 40-31 with registered Republicans. Yet she only leads 31-29 among Independents (NH allows unenrolled voters to pick a ballot on primary day) because Binnie and Bender are at 17 and 15.

Lamontagne has a very avid base of supporters that "woke up" as the campaign progressed. He's not a good statewide candidate but is very good at appealing to and turning out social conservatives. But he has a cap, even in a primary, and I think that without Binnie and Bender Ayotte would win by 58-42 or so.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

However
How many of those Conservative voters would be backing Ovide if Bender was not in the race? I think this is a CA Sen like situation, where the more moderate Republican wins over Conservatives and Tea PArty types because they want to keep the liberal Republican from winning, so the most Conservative candidate loses his base.
(Ayotte=Fiorina, Ovide=Chuck DeVore, Binnie=Campbell)
[ Parent ]
Bender does better with moderates than conservatives, though
But that could be statistical noise, as he seems like a pretty conservative guy. Perhaps the best field for Lamontagne would have included Binnie but not Bender, and for Ayotte vice versa.

Perhaps this is sour grapes, but this seat is more important for Republicans than Delaware. Castle would be nice to have but would not be in for terribly long due to age, and would likely be replaced by a Democrat. Ayotte is younger, could hold the seat for a long time, and has national ticket potential.

But yes, who am I kidding, we want them both, as do the Democrats.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Your right
If I could pick, I'd pick NH. Ayotte is better than Castle and can hold it for many terms, and if she does leave it, it wouldn't be a lock to go Dem. Also, Coons is a better Dem than Hodes.  
[ Parent ]
Hodes is likeable, I'll give him that
His commercials where he writes and plays his own music are very good in a folksy sort of way and he seems like the kind of guy you could have a beer with. Politically, he's a pretty mainstream Democrat and would probably be a clone of Jeanne Shaheen in the Senate.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
He is?
I got the impression that he is a 100% liberal Democrat who doesn't deviate from the Dems on any major issues.  And given that the main issues in 2010 are the spending, taxes, and the budget, where New Hampshire is pretty conservative, that is a death knell for a Democrat who demonstrates no independence from his/her party.  

I don't think Hodes wins against either any of the Republican candidates.  Ovide would win by the smallest amount.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
i think
he would be a bit to the left of shaheen, but no bernie sanders. he's probably more like leahy or kerry, to choose other new england senators

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
No offense
but that's pretty far to the left.  Leahy would be one of the 5-10 most left senators.  Well to the left of Shaheen, who was an anti-tax moderate Governor.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
hmm
true. i forgot how moderate she was. i think hodes would be in the center-left of the democratic caucus. but not one of the 5 most liberal.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Shaheen proposed
a state income tax, which was beat back by the rabid economic conservatives in the NH-GOP at the time. I wouldn't describe her as anti-tax, and on the whole Shaheen is reliably progressive, even if in a moderate fashion.  
[ Parent ]
.
Wasn't Shaheen one of the Dems who joined Bayh's Moderate Working Group? She's definitely a moderate.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Wrong, Shaheen Vowed to VETO any Income Tax Bill
She took "the pledge," which has become a sort of fetish for pols running for state offices in NH, to not propose an income or sales tax. In her last term, she advocated a sales tax (which of course is regressive), but it didn't pass. But she never advocated an income tax.  
[ Parent ]
That's right, I get the two mixed up
She refused to sign the pledge in her last campaign though. NH is ridiculous. It's tax code is a strange mixture of high property taxes and various, individual sales taxes on specific items. Someone needs to simplify it and simply put in an income tax system.  
[ Parent ]
But New Hampshire has actually become more liberal over the years
Hodes, Shea-Porter, and Shaheen have been relatively reliable votes for the Democrats anyways and none of them are guaranteed losers.

New Hampshire simply isn't conservative on those issues, maybe moderate on them, but the state has definitely become more tolerant of liberal views on the economy.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
NH Is a Liberal State
Maybe no state has changed more in partisan terms since the late 80's than NH. Remember, VT went for Bush in 1988, and NH was the second most Republican state, after only Utah.  In 1988, NH was 9 points more Republican than the popular vote, by 2004 and 2008 it was 2 points more Democratic than the rest of the country. This is far better territory for us than much of the rest of the country.

As for the belief that the biggest issues are taxes and spending, yes, in NH that's big, but it's the case mostly because it's by far the animating cluster of issue for the Republicans, because in NH the Republicans really are mostly anti-government in all areas, including social issues, and not just the economic ones.  But most of the swing voters there are more moderate Republican-leaning voters, who aren't crazy about government, but they're turned off by extremism. So a tea party affiliation, or an endorsement by Palin, is a big liability in NH, so the idea that Hodes can't win is way out of whack with the realities of NH.

And disclosure, I managed Hodes' first winning election and was his CoS, so you can dismiss my comments as not sufficiently impartial or clear-eyed if you'd like.  

[ Parent ]
if your last line is true
why are you here?  sorry, i just can't imagine a real  politico... here.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
You might be surprised
at how many "real politicos" - including real politicians! - read SSP.
[ Parent ]
i wish
we could know who did. besides meek.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Hey James, idea
It would be kinda cool for SSP savy polls to put out job hiring hit for the SSP community. They know we're the best, we know we're the best. It'd be cool to actually go out and do the work, especially since many of us are in the early college years and could take a semester off to do the heavy lifting.

Also, do you know if many of these politicos actually read the comments, or most just see the main page?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Good to hear
I imagine they're at least pleasantly surprised that there isn't too much blind partisanship going on here even though it's a Dem website.  Better to look at things rationally after all.
[ Parent ]
the best was
Someone here trashing Charlie Cook and him replying back to defend himself.  Classic SSP moment.
[ Parent ]
That is interesting Andrew
Does anyone have a link to that thread?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Brownie
points to anyone who can provide me a link of the Cook thing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
:)
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
It's Not the Articles
I like to look at the pictures.  
[ Parent ]
Heh.
n/a

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
Except that DeVore could never even come close...
And Ovide seems to have done this in NH. Who knows, maybe he still has a shot? No one was expecting Lisa Murkowski to lose her primary in Alaska, and it seemed Joe Miller surged "too late" at the last minute.

Still, even if Ayotte wins the primary, it looks like the NH GOP is deeply divided and Hodes could be the one to benefit in the general if those primary wounds don't heal quickly.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
The one they all hate is Binnie
22/55 in his own party. Yikes.

Ayotte and Lamontagne both have 56% approval. Not great, but it looks like there is a better chance at unity here than in some of the more divisive races.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Anyone care to enlighten on the etymology of the fridge too far?

Like all good things, it's from "The Simpsons"
It may predate this instance, but back in the mid-90's there was an awesome episode of "The Simpsons" where Homer gets the idea to gain 60 pounds to be classified as disabled so he can work at home. He goes to a movie theater to see "Honk If You're Horny" (starring Faye Dunaway and Pauly Shore) and is turned away because he's too fat to fit in the seats. He's mocked by a guy who says, "I've got a movie for you, fatty. How about 'A Fridge Too Far'?"

[ Parent ]
I remember that episode!


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
As with DE-SEN
I am remember of the bible verse, "Ask and ye shall receive."
Off-topic -
- but there's an interview with Scott McAdams in, of all places, the Miami Herald.

The good thing about it is that it focuses squarely and solely on the issues - basically, it's a list of questions about where he stands on issue X, Y and Z. No hype-of-the-day nonsense.

The bad thing - but now I'm really getting OT - is that his answers are, well, somewhere between meh and ugh. I guess that's just a question of the kind of things you have to say to get elected in Alaska. Sucks that it's like that though. I guess he's going for Clintonite triangulation, but  it sounds a little awkward to me, to be honest - but what do I know about Alaskans.

Maybe the explicit promise to be a Senator "in the tradition of Ted Stevens" will help him - he hits the "will work for pork" theme a bunch of other times too. Do you think that will help him attract the pork vote without losing Dem enthusiasm? (How do Alaska Dems feel about Stevens?) And will that be enough?

http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

It's hard to speak badly about someone who just died
Ted Stevens only became unpopular when he got caught using his influence for personal gain. Scott McAdams should have clarified that he would never use his power to bring home federal money for personal gain.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Just wish Bender never got in the race.
While in some ways the race has been kind of like the California race (where a liberal Republican enters and instantly gives the establishment pick some conservative credentials) another parallel could be Indiana where you had two candidates on the right fringe making sure neither would topple Coats.

But hopefully Ovide has better luck.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

New Poll has Ayotte up by 4, 35-31
NH-Sen: Ayotte Up 7 on Late-Surging Lamontagne | 44 comments

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