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SSP Daily Digest: 9/8 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Sep 08, 2010 at 8:23 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: On the topic of Lisa Murkowski's declaration that she's "still in this game" and her outreach efforts to a polite but seemingly unenthused Alaska Libertarian Party, The Mudflats sums up the situation pretty well:

       * She's not technically in the race right now
       * She's not out of the race
       * She's not a quitter
       * She is who she is
       * She will likely not run as a Libertarian
       * She will likely not run as a write-in
       * She doesn't know what she's doing

  • NH-Sen: Businessman Bill Binnie is throwing down another $500K of his own money, with the GOP primary just a week in the way. Though ex-AG Kelly Ayotte leads in what little polling there's been, I think this race is still up for grabs.
  • NV-Sen: The LVRJ has a detailed profile on Sharron Angle's tumultuous years in the state Assembly, where votes in the 42-member body were often "41 to Angle."
  • CO-Gov: Some Colorado Republicans are suing to try to knock Tom Tancredo off the ballot, saying his candidacy violates the American Constitution Party's bylaws. Even if they're right, I wonder if they have standing.
  • FL-08: Alan Grayson claims he raised half a million bucks in August, and says he has more than a million on hand, despite prepaying for a bunch of television advertising.
  • FL-24: GOPer Sandy Adams (and the NRCC, apparently) are touting a Public Opinion Strategies internal which has her leading Rep. Suzanne Kosmas 49-37.
  • HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa outraised Rep. Charles Djou in the pre-primary fundraising period, $330K to $206K. But Djou has slightly more cash on hand, $428K to $404K.
  • NY-14: Some Democrat she is. When asked by a reporter if she would vote for her opponent - not even endorse, just vote - in the general if she lost the primary, Reshma Saujani said she "didn't know" whether she would pull the lever for Rep. Carolyn Maloney. I've been adamantly opposed to Saujani's candidacy since I first learned about her, and with good reason. But this may be the most disgusting thing she's said so far. How can I possibly trust the Democratic bona fides of someone who can't even say if she'll vote Democrat in her own district? And no, her campaign's belated attempt to claim she'll "vote a straight ticket" does not assuage me in the least. When the cameras were rolling and the pressure was on, Saujani admitted she wasn't a team player. We don't need people like her in Congress.
  • Turnout (PDF): According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, the "average percentage of eligible citizens who voted in the primaries of each major political party" shows more a greater share of Republicans voting in primaries this year than Dems for the first time since 1930. Of course, 1930 was a pretty good year for Dems... but the trendlines are not inspiring.
  • SSP TV:

  • GA-Sen: GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, not a guy you traditionally think of as being endangered (if you've ever even heard of him) touts his conservative record
  • NH-Sen: Paul Hodes compares Washington to... a hot dog eating contest
  • NV-Sen: Harry Reid continues to produce some of the best negative ads of the cycle
  • OH-Sen: We mentioned this ad in yesterday's digest, wherein Lee Fisher sez: "Congressman Rob Portman knows how to grow the economy... in China!" Our update is that a GOPer says the buy is for $1.4 million and that the ad is running in Columbus and northern OH
  • FL-Gov: Alex Sink responds to Rick Scott's attack ads, which she says are all about Obama, not Florida
  • CA-11: Jerry McNerney's first ad, touting his support for veterans' causes (I like that he has an actual veteran do the talking - much better than the usual candidate bragging or hackneyed voiceover)
  • CA-45: Dem Steve Pougnet is on the air with his first ad, kicking off a reported $100K/week TV & radio ad blitz from now through election day
  • CO-04: Betsy Markey has an anti-spending spot
  • NM-01: Republican Jon Barela has an ad complaining about the debt
  • NM-02: Harry Teague is up with his first ad of the cycle, a surprisingly authentic 60-second spot that's worth watching
  • NM-02: Meanwhile, Americans for Job Security hits Teague over his vote for cap-and-trade (a "one-week" buy)
  • NY-02: If Steve Israel is worried enough to go up on the air....
  • VA-02: Glenn Nye touts his work to keep an aircraft carrier at Hampton Roads
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/8 (Morning Edition)
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    I saw Carol Maloney on the air last night
    twice on NYC broadcast.  

    disinterested
    Disinterested means impartial, objective or neutral.  The Libertarian Party is anything but disinterested.  They have apparently decided that giving Murkowski their ballot line is not in their interest and are therefore uninterested in her overtures.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    According to Merriam-Webster I'm being overly pedantic
    http://www.merriam-webster.com...

    Still, use of senses 1a and 1b will incur the disapproval of some who may not fully appreciate the history of this word or the subtleties of its present use.

    I find this funny because Noah Webster was one of the big promoters of proscriptive grammar and today his dictionary chides people for being too strict.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    The Webster's Dictionary name is in the public domain
    Anyone can start a dictionary and call it "Webster's."

    Your original point was correct; if you confuse "uninterested" and "disinterested" you'll sound like a moron.


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, but
    Merriam is the long-time publish of Webster's Dictionary. starting in 1843.  They only changed the name after they lost their trademark.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    My bad.
    You'd think I'd know better!

    [ Parent ]
    I do not like
    Carolyn Maloney although her opponent seems annoying too. I know someone who met Maloney and she was not very nice to him.  

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    Are You Suggesting People Should Vote for Who Is Friendliest?
    That might matter in a race for 7th grade vice president, but to me you'd hope a race for Congress would turn on the candidates' policy positions - though I'll readily acknowledge that's not always what happens.

    [ Parent ]
    I think friendliness has a factor
    even if a constituent completely agrees with a politicians positions, if s/he is unfriendly, it creates a negative personal bond.  they don't have to be super nice, or sugarcoat everything, but for god's sake, if you're a politician, don't be a prick.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    I know my state Attorney General
    And he is truly a fucking asshole. I always vote for him, though.

    [ Parent ]
    No
     I will support her over any Republican. If candidates are similar in their positions in the primaries though, I have to use something to decide who to support.  

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    [ Parent ]
    It use to be the Republicans in NY-14 were an elephant of a different color
    The silk stocking district Republicans have historically been VERY liberal Republicans who would most likely be to the left of Democrats elsewhere. This was the congressional seat once held by Lindsay and Bill Green two very liberal Rockefeller Republicans.

    A lot of what's left of the GOP establishment in this district is still of that old Rockefeller tinge. But since this district hasnt elected a GOP office holder in over 10 years there really isnt a lot of GOP left.

    That said from what I understand there are 2 Republicans running in a GOP primary in NY-14 for the right to be the sacraficial lamb.

    One is a libertarian (and will run in NOV on the Libertarian and Independence Paty lines) the other is a former Democrat who would be considered a RINO anywhere else outside of New York.


    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    I think that friendliness played a major factor in George Allen's defeat.
    His macaca video really showed him off as an asshole.

    I bet that a lot of Virginians voted against him not because of the racial connotations in that video, but rather because they saw Allen as the neighborhood schoolyard bully.

    http://mypolitikal.com/


    [ Parent ]
    I second that.
    I've met her a bunch of times and she has been quite rude.

    And it's not a New York thing because Jerry Nadler & Rangel are super nice guys when you meet them.



    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Israel
    Like Isakson he will win but both still have to actually campaign.

    BINGO. Methinks some people read too much into the mere fact of campaigning......
    It's a mistake to assume that just because an incumbent puts an ad on the air, he might be in trouble.

    A smart Democratic incumbent this year will go on the air even if his private polling shows him up 20 points, and even if that's the same or only very slightly worse than what his private polling showed right after Labor Day in 2006 and 2008.

    And really, a lot of incumbents will go on the air even against token opposition in a year NOT unfavorable to the incumbent's party.  That's normal campaigning.

    The only tea leaf worth reading is if an ad buy is uncommonly large for a given district or state for an uncompetitive race, or if an incumbent goes negative against the challenger.  But even then, it's a mistake to assume too much too fast.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I saw ads run by Randy Forbes in 2008
    who probably hadn't had to run a single ad since he was elected. His opponent was a joke, but she still managed 40%, thanks to Obama narrowly winning the district. So yeah, running ads doesn't mean you're in trouble, just that you're not taking things for granted.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually Isreal's district is Rick Lazio's old district
    He's out on Long Island which has historically been a GOP stronghold (and still is in many places on the local level). While his seat was redrawn in 2002 to make it more Dem friendly its still not one of those overwhelmingly D+20 districts.

    In fact if Isreal ran for Senate this year instead of re-election the race could be a rated a toss up if the GOP put up a decent candidate.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Israel learned the lesson of Suozzi.
    Don't coast and take things for granted in this environment.  Steve Israel is EXACTLY the type of candidate you could see going down out of nowhere in a Republican wave year.  Provided he wasn't proactive and taking his race seriously.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    [ Parent ]
    41 to Angle should worry folks...
    Because the Senate and it's secret holds and such, Angle could really run amok.

    A lot of these fringe candidates the GOP is running could really cause problems in the Senate - Paul, Miller, Buck, Rubio, Toomey, Johnson.  

    The senate needs to move to get rid of the secret hold and maybe chance the hold system altogether.  


    Rubio is no fringe at all, and Toomey is borderline fringe......
    Rubio is very, very conservative, but he's a team player, not a rogue or an ivory tower ideologue.  He was Speaker of the Florida House, you don't attain that status without being a team player with the party establishment.

    Toomey is closer to the fringe than Rubio, and he's been a troublemaker for sure, but neither was he a whack job as a Congressman in the mode of Bachmann or Steve King or Tancredo.  And he's not in the same ballpark as Angle or Paul or Joe Miller, or even Ken Buck who I think is very slightly less crazy than the aforementioned threesome but crazier than Toomey.

    I really regard Angle, Miller, Paul, and Buck as the real crazies of the Republican Senate nominees, in a different ballpark from everyone else.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Rubio
    was just a convenient vehicle for the teabaggers to take out their rage on Charlie Crist. Otherwise Marco Rubio is your mainstream conservative.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    I'd have to add another category for Angle
    (1) Angle
    (2) Buck, Miller, Paul
    (3) Johnson, Rubio, Toomey

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I'd put Buck slightly closer to the third category
    Especially since unlike Miller and Paul, he's been backtracking on some of his more extreme statements.  

    [ Parent ]
    i wouldn't
    if elected, Buck may end up in that category, but Buck has said a bunch of idiotic things, especially his real dumb comment attacking his opponent for "wearing high heels".  A lot of his statements are pandering, yes, but a lot of them are his real beliefs and his indiscipline.

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    There's a big distinction between impolitic remarks and outright weirdness, though
    If what we're considering is ideological fringery (made up word) here, Buck doesn't quite fit the mold of a Paul or a Miller. Candidates like Paul or Angle tend to get themselves in trouble for merely stating their positions; by virtue of how relatively extreme those positions are, they get in trouble.

    Buck's problem is much more common: he's just a pol that lacks discipline, as you said, and also just doesn't seem to think about what he's saying before he says it. There's a difference between calling your supporters 'dumbasses', a la Buck, or dropping the ball on federal drug funding because it conflicts with your beliefs like Paul did.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


    [ Parent ]
    I think Angle is like category zero
    or category i.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Rubio and Toomey
    I would agree categorizing Rubio and Toomey as fringe would be a stretch.  Rubio is definitely a mainstream conservative and I do not see him going off the deep end because he will want to get reelected to the Senate.

    Toomey is not the type that is going to be beholden to the grassroots either.  His poor relationship with the social conservatives in Pennsylvania means he is not going to be their bagman for six years to say the least.  He has a pretty mainstream conservative congressional record except he was one of the first people to heavily oppose earmarks.  If he is going to be the bagman for anyone it will be Wall Street, which is not something that is exclusive to the tea party as some Democrats are their bagmen too.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Toomey is a mainstream conservative
    he is not on the fringe at all.  Although he is lucky that he didn't have to run another GOP primary against Specter, because such a primary might have given the impression that he is on the fringe.


    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    Arlen's defection is the gift that keeps on giving <n/t>


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Indeed
    Sestak (or whomever the Dem nominee would be) would be in a much better position right now if Toomey had to beat Specter in the primary.  It would at best be a tossup.  Although, not to go too much into policy, but we did get some bad legislation (from my perspective) because of his switch.  So there was both an upside and a downside from the GOP point of view.  We won't know for a few years which party was helped most by the Specter switch, but I suspect it was us.

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    So instead of 99 to Coburn...
    It will be 98 to Coburn and Angle. Dr. No and Madam No.

    Nothing wrong with being the lone holdout. If she wants to be the GOP's Russ Feingold more power to her. In this cycle stuff like that will help her (and should help Feingold).

    If people are mad at the goverment and the direction of Congress than selling yourself as the lone voice who stood a top history and yelled "no" is not a bad gimmick for this cycle.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    It is when people are looking for solutions...
    And Sharron Angle offers none. Again, that's why even a number of traditional Republicans here hate her. It's one thing to be a "voice of conscience", but it's another thing to vote against a performing arts center in Las Vegas (but not a baseball stadium in Reno) "just because", and vote against some budgets but not others "just because", and vote against assisting distressed homeowners "just because".

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Coburn isn't the fringe element on the right
    in the Senate.  I would say that there are three GOP senators that I would not vote for, DeMint, Vitter, and Ensign.  The first two are on the fringe (Vitter I think is just pandering, but still), and the third is just incredibly corrupt. If I lived in Louisiana, I'd vote for Melancon, who is pretty conservative for a Democrat.

    I'd be glad to vote for Coburn if I lived in Oklahoma.

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)


    [ Parent ]
    There's something about Coburn.
    I disagree with him on everything, but the guy is a real statesman.  At a town hall meeting, he corrected someone who was scared about the health care bill.  Also, at that health care summit, he was probably the only Republican there who really listened when the Dems spoke and didn't spout ridiculous platitudes like Sen. Barrasso and a few others did.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Coburn knows what he is talking about
    Whether you agree with him or not, Coburn knows why he supports what he supports and is willing to have a serious discussion.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Coburn also suggested people look to more than FOX News

    for information and defended Nancy Pelosi as "a nice lady" that he just happens to disagree with.

    Some of his views are not mainstream, but he does not seem to be unhinged.

    http://www.politico.com/news/s...


    [ Parent ]
    I feel the same way about Russ Feingold
    n/t

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Warning.
    We've mentioned this before, but it looks like I'm going to have to give you a formal warning this time:

    We're not interested in who you wish you could vote for, or who you'd like to vote for, or who you wouldn't vote for. That's not the type of discussion we like to see in the comments, especially from Republicans. This type of thing leads to nothing but de-rails.


    [ Parent ]
    an interesting note
    this is more on governing, than campaigns, but is worth mentioning in the "elections have consequences" column.  Due to so many senators losing office, being appointed to other offices, or dying, there are currently 35 senators with less than one term of experience.  After the class of 04' graduates to their second term in november (of which, only burr and arguably isaskson are vulnerable) counting only senators who have lost primaries and are retiring, that number grows to 39.  throwing in very likely dem loss Blanche Lincoln, it becomes 40.  assuming dems only lose lincoln and open seats, or seats with newly appointed senators (bennet etc) 40% of the senate will have less than a term in office.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    I am ok with releasing some of the Senate's secrets...
    I am person in favor of more transparency.  If she wants to go nuts and release some Senate secrets, more power to her.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Your personal opinions on this sort of thing
    Are totally off-topic here. I've warned you in another thread, and I'm warning you again.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree about Angle and Paul, but otherwise, I'm not sure
    I suspect Rubio and Toomey, in particular, will vote on a straight party-line. I think you will see Angle and Paul vote against the GOP agenda quite often, though.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Ummm...I hope I don't see Sharrron or Rand voting at all
       at least not in teh U.S. House of Lords. The Senate is already bad enough without them!

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    This is what I've been trying to say about Angle...
    She has made plenty of enemies in her own party, and IMHO most everyone in the Nevada Republican establishment here is either sitting on one's hands or becoming a "Republican for Reid". Sharron Angle says all her loner votes means she's "principled", but her colleagues in the legislature didn't see it that way... Especially when she voted against things like foreclosure assistance, a rental car tax in Clark County to pay for the Smith Performing Arts Center (Btw, she voted against this but voted FOR the Washoe County rental car tax to pay for the Reno Aces stadium... HUH??!!), and the 1999-2000 state budget (which cost much less than the 2005-06 state budget she voted FOR). Angle was just hard to work with, and that's why hardly anyone in Carson City liked her.

    Add this to her 2006 primary against Dean Heller and Dawn Gibbons in NV-02, her 2008 primary challenge to State Senate GOP Leader Bill Raggio, and this year's nasty primary against Sue Lowden, and it's easier to see the BIG problem Angle has with her own party.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    GOP has won the ideas war...
    I mean how many Democrats are talking about reducing spending and talking about the deficit?

    No, they've just won a battle. Remember that...
    ...political messaging has a very short halflife.

    This cycle is just this cycle.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Cycles change, the ideology largely stays the same
    I agree people get too caught up in ideological changes in the short term.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Just
    another talking point. Hell in 2008 the DSCC was attacking numerous Republican senators for voting to raise the debt limit numerous times.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    A good number, actually.
    And I don't see how this shows either side being particularly creative.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Lee Fisher
    That ad should have been up a long time ago. It's great.

    It will help shore up the Dem base maybe
    but not much else.

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    One of the things Fisher needs is for Dems to come out to vote.. So, this will probably help with that.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    One of the things Fisher needs is for Dems to come out to vote.. So, this will probably help with that.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    The problem right now is low enthusiasm among Democrats. Given that problem, this is a great ad.  

    [ Parent ]
    TN-8: New Herron ad
    Roy Herron is out with a new ad touting his record of being tough on crime and predatory lending. He also reiterates his pledge to cut "the spending" and create jobs. This ad could have been a lot better.



    Democrat: TN-8


    Anzalone poll has Paul with 3 point lead
    CA-Gov: Whitman up 3
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Was Jerry Brown's ad up by 9/6? If so, I suspect that explains the tightening here.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    Another great Steve S. article from Kos
    Answering those who try to disparage various polls for one reason or another. Wanted to make sure everyone saw it.

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

    I know a lot of people on this site go to Kos anyway, but I figure the Republicans probably don't.  


    PPP Poll: Paul LePage (R) up big in Maine-GUV race
    9/2-9/6

    LePage (R) - 43%
    Libby Mitchell (D) - 29%
    Eliot Cutler (I) - 11%
    Other (I) - 6%

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...


    Really horrible numbers.
    Obama approval well underwater here.  Republicans outnumbering Democrats at the polls in Maine.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen
    found Obama at 54% approval in ME about three weeks ago.  PPP finds 44% here.  Quite a difference.  The level of dissonance between polls this cycle is amazing.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Despite its blue lean in the Prez races, Maine always intrigues me
    After all, this is a state where 40% of the electorate are Independents and 45% are self-described moderates. If Obama's approval is at 49% here (smack-dab in between PPP/Ras), he's probably even underwater with the moderate crowd who voted 2-to-1 for him in '08.

    I know we generally don't talk 2012 at this point, but, in theory, I could see Romney competitive in Maine.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    No, you're mistaken, moderates are mostly Democrats, not independents......
    Too many people wrongly conflate "moderates" with "independents."  Self-described "moderates" skew strongly Democratic, and indeed in numbers, moderates rival liberals if you study surveys of Democrats.

    Republicans are heavily conservative, with conservatives completely dwarfing moderates and the trivial few liberals who still call themselves Republicans.

    If Obama is at 49% approval in Maine, then he's in the high 50s with moderates.  That conservatives substantially outnumber liberals in most of America, Maine included, drags down the average.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I will add, a lot of self-identified moderates are really liberals who have bought into...
    ...the successful Republican villification of the word "liberal."

    It's very consistent that moderates virtually always vote Democratic by a large margin.

    And I've always held that if you vote for Democratic candidates for most offices in most years, you're a liberal.  But a lot of those voters call themselves "moderates."

    In contrast, most voters who vote mostly for Republicans in most years won't hesitate to call themselves "conservative."  Some will say they're moderates, but most embrace the conservative label.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    If you accept the 40-40-20 break down
    Democrats will on average need to win at least 75% of moderates to win an election.  Which is why it always bugged me when ppp had about 5 stories over the summer telling us how badly republicans were doing with moderates.



    [ Parent ]
    No, it is NOT a 40-40-20 breakdown, that's incorrect. Exit polls show...
    ...very consistently that moderates are in the mid-to-high-40s nationally, conservatives in the low-to-mid-20s, and liberals at or barely above 20%.

    This varies state-by-state, and the much more conservative states will have something closer to a 40-40-20 breakdown.  And those are states where it's very hard for Democrats to win, and virtually impossible for liberals to win.

    But nationally, something in the ballpark of 45M-35C-20L is very consistent.  Moderates consistently outnumber conservatives by a significant margin nationally, and in any purple or blue state.

    I'm well aware that a lot of polling in 2009 and 2010 shows a more conservative electorate than that, and I can see where turnout disparity produces a 40-40-20 electorate this year nationally.  So I willingly concede for THIS cycle the 40-40-20 model is plausible.

    But a normal cycle isn't like that.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I understand
    about Maine and all northeastern states.  I guess that my point on 40 40 20 was more about moderates nationally and their voting habits.  However I think that given a 50 dem-50 rep election moderates will go for the democrat 75% of the time.  And if Moderates go for the Democratic canidate 75% of the time, Republicans should not be able to win in Maine. Obviously the canidate (Snowe, Collins) and year make a difference.

    I'm sorry I should have been more clear.


    [ Parent ]
    A typo in my last comment, and a note on splitting hairs......
    My first sentence in my previous comment to which you replied should have said conservatives are in the low-to-mid-30s in the electorate, not low-to-mid-20s.

    And, in the splitting hairs mode, moderates typically break closer to 60-40 for a Democrat than 75-25, based on an ideological turnout model in the ballpark of 45M-35C-20L.  Yes if you go 40-40-20, then 60-40 isn't enough.  But in reality what happens when a Democrat wins with that much more conservative an electorate is that the Democrat gets more crossover conservative support.

    The problem with ideological labels is that conservatives succeeded a generation ago in defining "conservative" as responsible while villifying liberal.  But defining the words didn't really change people's politics as much as it changed what people are willing to call themselves.  So you have conservatives who are willing to vote for moderate or even liberal Democrats more than an ideological conservative ever should, and you have moderates voting more heavily for Democrats than any swing voter does.  And those two things are the reasons why it's a 50-50 country, instead of dominated by the right.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Proportions of Moderates - Conservatives - Liberals
    > I guess that my point on 40 40 20 was more about moderates nationally and their voting habits.

    That's not correct though. DCCyclone was talking about moderates nationally, not specifically about the Northeast. And he's right: when it comes to the proportional division of conservatives, moderates and liberals, nationally, it is not 40-40-20, it's more like 45-35-20.

    I looked up the exit poll numbers from the last few cycles:

    2008 national Presidential exit polls found:

    44% Moderates 34% Conservatives 22% Liberals

    2006 national House of Reps exit polls found:

    47% Moderates 32% Conservatives 20% Liberals

    2004 national Presidential exit polls found:

    45% Moderates 34% Conservatives 21% Liberals

    2000 national Presidential exit polls found:

    50% Moderates 29% Conservatives 20% Liberals


    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    [ Parent ]
    i have seen the 40-40-20
    Beakdown in response to party voting habits.  Both parties can expect a solid 40% of the vote in most places with it being a battle for remaining 20%.  I'd agree with the 45-35-20 breakdown for moderate/conservative/liberal which generally means Dems can expect roughly of moderates in any given election and getting more than that is getting close to actually winning.  (All generally speaking.)

    [ Parent ]
    LePage doesn't stress his socially conservative views
    in his campaign and runs as a populist (though - conservative populist). With very low popularity of Baldacci, very liberal candidacy of Mitchell and left-of-center Independent candidates he is the only one who plays on right-of-center field. So - not especially surprising.....

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Who's this John Mertens guy?
    Saw his web ad on the Teague ad link.  Wikipedia says he's using the CT4L party line and trying to namespam onto the other party lines.

    Any idea which side he'd pull from?  Wikipedia also says he got 2% when he ran for a CT General Assembly seat in 2008.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    Looks like a Peter Schiff-style libertarian to me
    Even so, his "website" is pathetic. I can't imagine he detracts from either candidate.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    How long will Connecticut for Lieberman exist?
    What are the requirements to retain ballot access in Connecticut for a party?  Will the party eventually die off or will it continue to appear on ballots?

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Ad from Kosmas hitting Sandy Adams for opposing the 17th Amendment


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Good ad, she learned from Harry Reid. All Democrats should do the same......
    The oppo research folks need to work in overdrive to find video and audio of Republican challengers saying batshit crazy things, and put those directly into the attack ads.

    If all our Democratic incumbents were this smart, we'd have a shot at holding the House.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Does this even matter?
    I think their Senate stance is weird, but how many people are going to the polls to vote because of the 17th Amendment?  This could come off as attacking someone over an issue nobody cares about too.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Your point is fair and shows this matters less than wanting to abolish social security, BUT this matters...
    ...in showing a candidate is too extreme, and it sells very well when using audio or video of the candidate himself/herself saying it.  I have no doubt about that.

    That doesn't mean Kosmas will win, but I guarantee she'll benefit from this ad by causing swing voters to pause regarding Adams.  The issue isn't the 17th Amendment, the issue is Adams.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I wonder if the ad is in response to yesterday's NRCC poll?
    If it is, it probably was released because Kosmas doesn't have an internal of her own showing her ahead and she realized that she needs to knock Adams' numbers down right away.

    Kosmas has one of the toughest fights of anyone ahead of her because of the HCR flip-flop, and she needs Sandy Adams to be crazy. If Adams is not crazy (and I agree with you that not enough people know the 17th Amendment for these statements to be electoral suicide), the path to victory for Kosmas is narrow.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    No one airs ads in response to the opposition's polling, especially not short notice. Rather....
    ...Kosmas has her own polling that shows she's in trouble, so she has to attack Adams.  And this is a smart attack.  This isn't going to work everywhere, all the time, and it won't work as well in House races as in Senate races since voters have less interest and pay less attention to individual House candidates.  But it's a good ad and can work as well as anything.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    whats disappointing
    Is that this a cycle where being for something like the repeal of the 17th won't be as effective because people could care less about it.  Hell, I almost think people aren't even voting about the economy anymore because if they actually cared about the economy, they'd do their research and see that the Dems have done a lot of great things in that department.

    If Obama hadn't monopolized the "change" thing in 08 it would have been the GOP's slogan in 2010, "Everything Sucks; Vote for Change Vote GOP."


    [ Parent ]
    OH-16: GOPer Jim Renacci pulls a Rand Paul.
    http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...

    Calls civil rights a local issue and the federal government should not be involved in it.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Speaking of Rand Paul
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    If this is Rasmussen I would hate to see what PPP comes up with.


    [ Parent ]
    That's on par with SUSA
    They had Paul up 55%-40%.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, the RGA dances around it, but implicitly says they are giving up on CO.
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    TX-Gov: PPP finds Perry up 6
    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    What's fascinating is I think their voter model is way off, with a massive oversampling of Republicans and undersampling of Independents. Currently, I'd peg this race at...

    GOP - 37%
    Independent - 32%
    Democrat - 31%

    Perry - 87/53/5 = 51%
    White - 13/47/95 = 49%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    There is a Libertarian on the ballot
    because I'm consider voting for them in this race. (It's either going to be White or the Lib for me)

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    How do independents naturally break in Texas?
    I assume most Independents break towards the Republicans in Texas.  If they are soft Republicans in reality, are they that oversampled?

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    The sample seems believable to me
    First, as user markhanna noted earlier in the comments, Steve Singler at DK has a basic explanation http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

    Second, the '06 turnout was 31/40/29. The PDF suggests 30/47/23. '10 will be more difficult than '06. Therefore, the PPP numbers are reasonable, at least within the MoE.


    [ Parent ]
    Sample seems Dem friendly in another respect
    in that it shows 52-41 McCain, which is virtually the same as the actual 2008 result.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    NY-AG: Liz Holtzman backs Kathleen Rice
    http://capitaltonight.com/2010...

    BTW, NY1 hosted an Attorney General debate last night. Consensus among the analysts seemed to be front-runners Eric Schneiderman and Kathleen Rice actually fared the worst, with Sean Coffey performing strongest. I get the sense this is actually a complete jump-ball, with practically any of the candidates able to win. And, any of them could easily lose to the Republican nominee. So, predix here...

    Schneiderman - 30%
    Rice - 29%
    Brodsky - 18%
    Dinallo - 12%
    Coffey - 11%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    IL-17 - We Ask America
    says Schilling 41, Hare 38.  An improvement from the Schilling internal showing a double digit lead.

    http://weaskamerica.com/2010/0...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    IL-17
    Still Likely Democratic in my book.  Hare has made some statements that might upset some, but I really do not understand why he is considered endangered at this point.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    A POS poll showed Hare a few points ahead.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Standard Rural Polling Disclaimer
    IL-17 definitely falls into the category of rural districts where polling should be distrusted.  

    We got three polls from Republican leaning pollsters.  All give radically different results.  Unless I missed it, I have not seen a Democratic poll of this one yet.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Also, the district has a very weird shape.
    That would affect polling too, wouldn't it?

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Shape can be a factor
    That district is odd to say the least when it comes to its shape, but most of its population is located in a few pockets.   I suspect it could lead to an oversampling of the more urbanized of the district though.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    While there have been no released Dem polls,
    Hare characterized his polls as showing double digit leads, but that was back in the Spring.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    This is one of those districts that CAN be endangered in an anti-Democratic year......
    If Republicans pick up 50 seats, this CAN be one of them, if Hare has let his guard down and hasn't been taking his opponent seriously.

    It's a very tough district for Republicans to win, and probably even tougher for them to hold for more than one term.  But it's not impossible if the anti-Democratic sentiment is strong enough and the turnout model bad enough.

    I'm done dismissing vulnerabilities of Democratic incumbents.  I'll gladly dismiss Joe Cao's chances of reelection and gladly laugh off the notion that any of the other 180 or so most liberal districts could be in play.

    But Hare's district might not quite be in that 180.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Because
    he has advanced a really far left union agenda.  This guy is right from the depths of the labor movement while voting 100% with the social liberals on everything.  Basically he is Alan Grayson w/o loud and crazy statements.  His district is Dem but not that liberal, Kerry won it only 51-48.

    I don't expect Hare to lose but it may be really close.  

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)


    [ Parent ]
    The "depths of the labor movement?"
    Really not cool.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Right-wing framing
    and gratuitous swipes (e.g. "far left union agenda", "depths of the labor movement") are really not tolerated here. This is my second warning that I've dished out to you today - I have a feeling you don't know how the comments here work, given the disruptive nature of what you've written.

    Perhaps it's best if you take a break and watch the daily back-and-forth here until you get accustomed to how the few other Republican commenters behave here.


    [ Parent ]
    Well, AFAIK
    being "from the depths of the labor movement" may not be that bad in a district like IL-17. Seeing as it borders union-heavy eastern Iowa and NE Missouri (may be union-heavy also but am not sure), this area is most likely union-heavy itself. (I do know that being "from the depths of the labor movement" is more of an asset than a liability in California especially in most the population centers. (OC, outer Sacramento, and San Diego excepted.))

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    The district is very labor-friendly, Hare is the same as his predecessor Lane Evans......
    This district has elected strongly pro-union liberals for a long time.  That's the kind of district it is.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Trends are not good for Hare.
    Last WAA poll showed a 39-32 lead for Hare

    [ Parent ]
    It's
    a WWA Poll. Not saying Hare couldn't be close but I do not trust We Ask America polling.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm sure in this bad an environment is somewhat close. But it's a VERY tough seat to flip......
    This is not a seat worth the NRCC's money when so much lower-hanging fruit is out there for them.  As long as Hare campaigns hard and messages wisely, he'll win.  But it's a district that definitely can be close in a bad year for Dems, and it definitely can flip in a bad year for Dems and the Dem incumbent doesn't take the challenge seriously.  But it's also a district that almost certainly flips right back, perhaps to Hare himself, 2 years later.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Sadly, I have to disagree with your last sentence
    if Bill Brady wins, I hope someone shoots me a bipartisan map could easily result in making IL-17 more Republican.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]

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