Dem held Senate seats

Gone:
ND, AR, IN

Almost Gone:
DE, PA

Tossup/Tilt R
WI

Tossup/Tilt D
CO, NV, CA, IL

Lean D
WA, CT

GOP held seats:

Tossup/Tilt R
KY

Lean R:
FL, AK (could be moved up)

Almost Safe:
NH, OH, MO, NC, LA  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

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by: BearFanTX @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 19:37:41 PM UTC

Need to see more

Wisconsin polling. Actually, more polling of the firewall states (WI, WA, CA, CO) that isn't Rasmussen and SurveyUSA.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 19:47:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Flip WI and CO

Agree with the rest though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:52:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right now, I'm looking at GOP +8 in the Senate field

With AR, CO, DE, IL, IN, ND, NV, and PA flipping. Rubio holds FL.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:26:44 PM UTC

Even though Reid

Has lead in every poll since June except Rasmussen in which he leads in the latest? Colorado is the hardest call for me since the last polls from SurveyUSA and PPP both had Bennet up. IL could well be the closest race in the nation which leads me to believe dead people in Cook County will be enough.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:32:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NV

I expect to see WI and WA flip before NV at this point, but it's still quite possible.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:34:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps

I'm just very uncomfortable making judgments solely on Rasmussen in those two states.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:37:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NV?

I doubt it. Why do you say so though?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:53:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My current model on Nevada looks like...

Democrat - 34%
GOP - 34%
Independent - 32%

Reid - 87/7/38 = 44%
Angle - 7/85/45 = 45%
Ashjian - 0/2/3 = 2%
Other - 1/2/5 = 3%
None - 5/4/9 = 6%

If I'm not mistaken, my last Nevada projection (probably done in late July/early August) had Reid up 47-46. My hunch is Reid will hold a miniscule lead in most polling through election night, but enough of the third-party/"none" vote will bolt to Angle for her to eek-out victory. Ashjian, in particular, could fizzle to below 1%, which would really help Angle. I've said two things all along, and they hold from here on out: 1) Reid needs 90% of Democrats to win and 2) the quieter Angle remains, the better her chances.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 22:50:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think there will be

More Democrats than Republicans.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 23:41:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So you're counting on Angle being quiet? Really???......

She hasn't had a single quiet week post-primary.  EVERY week something NEW comes out to damage her.

I learned something from 2004:  trust the polls.  Bush led only narrowly in most polling, virtually always sub-50, and so many of us thought undecideds would break toward Kerry at the end.  But ultimately that mass of polls that had Bush up by just 1 or 2 or 3 points proved right; the polls held up.

Reid is ahead in VIRTUALLY ALL polling.  That's going to hold up.

If it doesn't, it will be because of something unexpected in the turnout model.  But a close study of Nevada reveals that the state Dems are well-organized with strong field, while the state GOP is broke with no field program at all.  Republicans are hoping that the organic enthusiasm gap overcomes that, but that's what we, too, relied upon in 2004.  It turned out that strong field ruled the day.  And strong field ruled the day in 2008 with Obama overperforming all polling in Nevada and a bunch of other states.  A midterm is different, yes, but the disparity in field in this particular state, this particular year, is striking.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 01:58:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The parallel Angle needs to think of is Coleman/Franken

An unpopular (but less unpopular) incumbent stuck in the 40's against a controversial (but less controversial) challenger in a race with a significant third-party option. Coleman led by single digits for most of the summer, then Franken took the lead following the economic meltdown, and then Coleman retook the lead in late October and led in the final polls. But Obama and the environment pulled Franken just over the finish line.

Angle needs to shut up. Desperately. But I'm willing to say that she'll win if she's within two points of Reid in the final batch of polls because:

1. Sandoval will crush Rory Reid, and Republicans will hesitate to vote for one Reid after voting for the other

2. A small portion of the Ashjan/NOTA crowd will drift away at the last second, and because of the incumbent rule and the conservative nature of Ashjan's campaign, those folks are more likely to go for Angle than Reid.

3. If, and this is a big if, Republicans remain competitive in enough states where taking the Senate is as distinct possibility on Election Day, that media narrative will dominate the news from Sunday-Tuesday. This will fuel Republican excitement and some Reid Republicans may hold their nose and vote for Angle if it looks like the Senate will come down to this seat (especially because IL, IN, AR, DE, ND and PA could already be called by the time Nevada closes.)

In my mind, Reid's the favorite. But if Sharron shuts her mouth and the NRSC runs a good attack campaign, she can keep things close enough that the "little things" can pull her across the line.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 03:03:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Comparison is apt

but not quite. Nevada is less Republican than Minnesota was Democratic, but Reid is less popular than Coleman was. (And in my mind, Franken didn't really win the race.)

I'd bet on Reid, barely.  Although your argument on #3 is very intriguing, as I think right now Angle is losing solely because of defections of at least 15-20% of Republicans to Reid or NOTA.  (She would lose me if I was in that state to NOTA regardless of the national picture).


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

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by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 12:58:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your mind is a strange place. Franken won, fair and square, period. I don't respect...

...idiotic conspiracy theories, which is all your side has in pretending Franken didn't win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 13:38:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is not a conspiracy theory

to suggest that who really one the Minnesota Senate race is in doubt. When the race is as close as that one was, it is really a coin flip as to who really got the most votes.  (And I would concede that I am not sure who won Florida in 2000 as well.)

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

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by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 18:00:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your have a strange and wildly incorrect notion that Nevada Republicans are decisive......

The Republicans will vote for Angle, perhaps 90ish%.  But there still will be more crossover support for Harry by GOPers than for Angle by Democrats.  Angle doesn't even have a single Democratic endorsement to speak of, and that's virtually unheard of as almost any candidate can show off a handful of prominent citizens offering crossover support.

And Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans in Nevada.  That's a recent phenonmenon of the past few years, NOT ancestral Democratic identification by otherwise conservative voters like in parts of the South.

So to analyze the race as if it comes down to Republicans who don't like Angle, which is what your analysis does, is wild departure from political reality.

For the voters on the fence, Angle is well-defined, and they're not going to be swayed by last-minute macropolitical news, or by the Governor's race.  Regarding the Governor's race, if anything, voting for Sandoval will make it EASIER for swing voters to vote for Harry, since voting for just one Reid is easier than voting for both.

And regarding 3rd-party/NOTA voters, 2-way polling already shows Harry winning, so there's nothing for Angle to gain on the margin from that group.  PPP didn't offer any 3rd choices and had Harry up 48-46.  Rasmussen's most recent effort has Harry up 50-47 with leaners.  One or two other recent polls had Harry at 48.  Sharron isn't going to get that high, she's too thoroughly despised.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 13:46:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

11% of Nevada Republicans voted for Obama

I'm guessing that at least that many will vote for Reid, and more will vote NOTA.  I would be very surprised if Angle gets more than 85% of Republicans, and she may not break 80%.  Not all of us will put up with her crazy nonsense.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

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by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 14:09:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wild departure from reality?

I agree with almost everything you said above, especially that Angle will not get any help from Democrats (even moderate ones, who a good Republican could pick off from Reid.) But I do believe that there are enough Republicans and right-of-center Independents in Nevada that Angle can win this race in 2010 (not 2008 or 2012) with little or no Democratic support.

I will reference atdleft's diary from last week on "Republicans for Reid" to make my case that there are enough moderate Republicans currently in the Reid, NOTA, 3rd Party, or undecided column to swing this election. PPP's one-on-one poll has Reid at 48, but that's with a lot of these Republicans and conservative Indies on his side. If Angle can bring half of them into the fold in September and October (which she can only do by shutting up, acting like a reasonable option, and letting the NRSC hammer Reid), she will have a path to victory on election day even if she trails slightly in the polls. Of course, if she can't recoup her image somewhat, she could lose by double digits.

We disagree on several aspects of this race, but I think it's evident that there are more anti-Reid than pro-Reid voters now (also, far more anti-Angle than pro-Angle.) If Angle can succeed in making this one more about Harry than her, the incumbent rule would suggest that the anti-Reid vote will coalesce better than the anti-Angle vote on election day.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 15:54:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the mention...

But again, I have to reiterate what I said just below, and what I said in that diary last week. Those Republicans are for Reid because they despise Angle. Her fellow GOP legislators often voted her as "Worst Legislator" in The R-J's poll, and she's brewed plenty of bad blood within the party for her nasty primary campaign against Dean Heller (the final winner) and Dawn Gibbons (who, btw, started campaigning for Reid last week) for the NV-02 open seat in 2006, as well as challenging GOP State Leader Bill Raggio in the primary for his suburban Reno seat in 2008. While Reid had been working his relationship with many prominent Nevada Republicans before the primary, Sharron Angle's nomination has certainly helped even more since the primary.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 08, 2010 at 03:14:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not quite. I can't imagine the Minnesota Dems were...

Nearly as dysfunctional as the Nevada GOP. They have NO field operation, as Angle's essentially now looking to Karl Rove to bail her out on that. And as both campaigns are "going nuclear" on the other, the NOTA/other candidates votes may very well end up in the mid to high single digits (in addition to Ashjian, there are at least 4 other minor party or independent candidates).

Oh, and US Senate is listed before Governor. And so far from all the polling here, Rory doesn't seem to be dragging down anyone else and Sandoval doesn't seem to have any kind of "coattails". (Actually, Sandoval doesn't seem to be running any kind of campaign here.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 08, 2010 at 03:08:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jerry Brown

 Finally has released his first campaign ad. At least he decided that Labor Day was the time to start airing ads. NWOTSB and the ad is actually a positive one. It is pretty good as it talks about his high points as Governor and mentions 1.9 million jobs created while he was there. Here is the link:

https://salsa.wiredforchange.c...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:29:28 PM UTC

Not sure if it was wise

To use that old footage. I get that he wants to emphasize his experience but I worry that could make him look like old news. Newspaper stills would have done the same job.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:35:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WV

Like you, I'm curious about WV and wouldn't be at all surprised to see it come into play.  I was watching the GOP guy's ads over the weekend and they are really good.  Manchin might be a popular governor, but if WV votes for the other guy, it's a win-win as they can still keep him as Gov.  PPP is supposed to poll them this week.  Since they are now using a LV screen, I'm really curious to see their numbers.  I'm starting to regret locking Manchin in Slate's Lean/Lock game (where I am currently sitting in the top ten scores!).

I'm not at all surprised about Kasich.  I said early on that he was being WAY underestimated.  He has one of the best records for balancing a budget in a year when that's one of the main issues.  Plus, he looks like an overgrown schoolboy; sort of like the neighbor's kid who you want to see do well.  Now way were the Dems going to be able to stick him with an image of a sleazy Wall Street type; the optics were all wrong.

Here's a funny thought - the GOP could take over the house and still not knock off Reid - would he be Minority Leader or would the Dems revolt anyway?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:30:36 PM UTC

Reid

I would think he will be leader if he wins whatever else happens.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:33:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree, he has no reason to step down. There's no displeasure with him within the caucus......

Some liberal activists and political junkies don't like him and complain he's "not tough enough" or doesn't "twist arms," but most Democrats like Reid, and the Senate Democratic Caucu members like Reid.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 13:48:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP

is not polling West Virginia. They are doing Maine.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 20:36:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dang

I thought WV got the nod.  Don't care much about ME-Gov, though ME-02 could show something interesting.  If there is a big wave building, it could show there.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 21:00:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is a wave

Michaud losing would be beyond all water based metaphors.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 21:55:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Btw, this is the order of likelihood in which I see things flipping GOP...

With my current projections in parentheses.

1. North Dakota (Hoeven +52)
2. Arkansas (Boozman + 28)
3. Indiana (Coats +20)
4. Delaware (Castle +20)
5. Pennsylvania (Toomey +8)
6. Colorado (Buck +6)
7. Nevada (Angle +1)
8. Illinois (tie)
9. Wisconsin (Feingold +2)
10. Washington (Murray +2)
11. California (Boxer +3)
12. Connecticut (Blumenthal +8)
13. West Virginia (Manchin +12)
14. New York - B (Gillibrand +18)

With every other Dem incumbent up 20%+.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 23:10:19 PM UTC

I think you're WAAAAAAY off on Reid......

Reid at this point is less likely to lose than Feingold, Murray, Boxer, or Giannoulias.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 01:59:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree

I think Reid is definitely favored as of now, but even though Angle is bat-shit crazy, Reid is still really unpopular relative to the rest (maybe except for Giannoulias) and Nevada is just the type of state that could be in a "throw the bums out" mood (of course, it's also the exact type of state where polling could be underestimating Democratic support as well so maybe that cancels the former out!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 02:19:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And I have to disagree...

Reid is still really unpopular relative to the rest (maybe except for Giannoulias) and Nevada is just the type of state that could be in a "throw the bums out" mood

Yes, Reid isn't very popular... But we aren't really in much of a "throw the bums out" mood. So far of all the statewide offices here, all the incumbents are leading. And with the competitive NV-03 House race, Dina Titus has been leading in the few independent polls taken this year. (And even with the GOP internal polls, they can't show anything beyond a slight Heck lead.)

And as I keep trying to say here, the state Dem Party has built a VERY STRONG GOTV operation that's working overtime to turn out as many Dems as humanly possible. The state GOP has nothing like this. Honestly, the ground game alone will likely save Reid (and Titus) here.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 08, 2010 at 03:24:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Opinions are really converging.

I'm at Senate GOP +6 and Governors GOP +6.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 12:58:31 PM UTC

That's my current count Spiderdem

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 16:36:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks like Fiorina

Won the debate. Urgh.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Certainly only tilts now.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 16:46:19 PM UTC

Fiorina is an example of someone who's turned off the gaffe machine

Since the hair comment, she's run a good campaign, and her odds of winning are better today than they were when she won the primary. The opposite holds for Angle and to a lesser extent Paul and Miller. All three plus Ken Buck could learn from what Carly's done so far.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 16:51:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It also helps to not actually be crazy

Fiorina is a mainstream conservative Republican, while Angle, Paul, Miller, and Buck are simply not.  I don't think Angle or Paul are pandering to the tea party folks with their statements, they actually believe what they are saying.  You can't simply turn that off.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

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by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 18:04:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, in all fairness

I thought Fiorina won the debate, but I'd still vote Boxer. Then again, most aren't as open-minded as me.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 18:37:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MA-Gov

Cahill's support did bleed away a few months ago when the RGA smashed him to bits. Even then Baker couldn't get ahead.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Sun Sep 12, 2010 at 01:56:47 AM UTC