Public Policy Polling (8/27-28, likely voters, no trend lines):
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 37
Sean Parnell (R): 55
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±2.7%)
Of a trio of polls released in the past week, these are the best numbers for Sean Parnell (an NRSC-commissioned Basswood Research poll had Parnell up by 54-40, and Rasmussen, for whatever it's worth, had the race at 53-43). The bloom has faded a bit from the Parnell flower, though, as PPP finds that his job approval rating is at 50-36, down from 58-19 earlier in the year.
One thing not considered by this PPP poll are the third-party options. For a few days, it looked like Republican Bill Walker, who pulled a third of the GOP primary vote against Parnell, might run on the Alaskan Independence Party line in place of the current AIP nominee, 80 year-old Don Wright. After saying that he would bow out of the race, Wright has reversed course and now insists that he's staying on the ballot. Walker says he's still considering running as a write-in or on the Libertarian line, but that would require the consent of the Alaskan Libertarian Party and their nominee William Toien. (For their part, the Libertarians say they would "consider it".) If anything's going to happen, it'll have to happen pretty soon -- state law says that a party can replace its nominee up to 48 days before election day.
If Walker did manage to land on the Libertarian line, it might make for a more interesting general election -- recall that Democrat Tony Knowles was successful in 1994 thanks in part to vote-splitting between the GOP and the Alaskan Independence nominees.
Meanwhile, we also have some House numbers:
Harry Crawford (D): 36
Don Young (R-inc): 55
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±2.7%)
After surviving near-death in 2008, it's looking like Don Young won't have any troubles this fall. The real marquee match-up will be the Senate race between Scott McAdams and Joe Miller. |
