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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 5:30 PM EDT


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James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 380 comments
Let's end the work week with another questionable SurveyUSA poll
Washington-2 CD

Koster (R) - 50%
Larsen (D) - 46%

http://www.king5.com/community...

THANK GAWD SUSA does not poll Nevada!
Otherwise, I'd be having so much needless heartburn. They really jumped the shark long ago.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Be
careful, the LVRJ might switch to SUSA so they can show Sharron Angle leading for once.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I'm not ready to assume
that pollsters getting bad results for the Democrats are wrong. My suggestion (which I predict few if any Swing Staters will accept, given the nature of this site and its focus on debating how campaigns are going) is: Let's wait until we get the November results before criticizing the polls' bottom lines too harshly. Methods, sure, if that's what you're getting at. But I frankly will be shocked and pretty depressed but not necessarily flabbergasted if the Republicans flip both Houses of Congress in November. It is not close to an unbelievable eventuality.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Neither do I...
But if it's a pollster like SUSA that has been notorious these past few months for ridiculously screwy results that contradict just about all other pollsters, then I will start assuming its numbers are wrong.

Notice how I don't say the same about Razzy. While I do think they have a bit of a pro-GOP house effect, I'd never say their numbers are far off like SUSA's. They may often be a few points more Republican than the other polls, but their internals almost always make sense (unlike SUSA!).

And honestly, I think when we see all these SUSA, Razzy, and GOP internal polls, we may be getting a warped view of reality and overestimating "The Red Tide" (which I still don't think will be all that big).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
This is more believeable than WA-Sen and VA-05
Koster outpolled Larsen by a small amount in the top-two primary, and these results are just on the edge of the margin of error. Prefers Democratic Party did beat Prefers Republican Party 52-48, but given the environment it's not a stretch to say that Koster did better at consolidating Republicans than Larsen did with Democrats, and that he is tied or has a slight lead.

If I were predicting, I'd say this is a 51/49 Larsen hold.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I tend to agree with you, in this case
Proviso-- unless Larson has been campaigning / on the air.

I think this is one district that could be a "surprise" in a '94 style wave -- if Larson pulls even a partial Coakley. (Anyone remember Jack Metcalf?)

[ Parent ]
Larsen has spent about $500k so far, to Koster's $300k.
He has $864k in the bank, while Koster only has $127k left.
[ Parent ]
The primary was Larsen's low point
I think he'll be re-elected with 54-55% of the vote.  Koster's base of Snohomish county may provide him with a few thousand vote margin at MOST.

Larsen will win everything else.

The seat will only fall if there is a debacle even worse than '94 on the dem's hands.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
This poll is bunk
10% of the vote in the primary went to Democratic challengers running to Larsen's left. Every single one of these voters WILL vote in the general, and they will not vote for John Koster. Total party vote in the primary was 52-48 for Democratic candidates, meaning Larsen is starting out right there at the very least.

I think this SUSA poll should be given absolutely no attention.

[ Parent ]
Wrong.
Every single voter as definite as that makes that sound IS not going to vote in the general election. They won't vote for John Koster, but if they feel Larsen is "moderate," they may not vote at all.

I would look at the Koster-Larsen totals.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Wrong.
This is the Democratic base, and there is a heavily contested race at the top of the ticket between Patty and Dino. This 10% of the base will all vote again, and they will vote D down the line especially once Larsen goes on the air about how bat-shit Koster is.
[ Parent ]
Can you really
tell me that every single voter who voted in the primary is going to vote again? That's just not the way it works. I don't know about Washington and maybe you know more, but I can see people on the far left and far right not being happy with Larsen.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Thinking about it some more...
Obviously turnout is going to be larger. And by an large, turnout is going to be larger on the Republican side.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Thinking about it even more...
Patty Murray got 53% here in WA-02 in 2004, running again a bad opponent in George Nethercut. Cantwell got 55%. The election is going to be close here, with Rossi having a chance to carry this district. Larsen also has his strongest opponent in decades. Both elections (WA-SEN in WA-02 and WA-02) are almost "ties" right now.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
So
It is probably outlandish to claim that every single voter will vote again, but the point I was trying to make is that they have reason to vote beyond Larsen. Patty is very popular with the Democratic base, and they will make sure to show up to keep Rossi out of the Senate. I am then making the assumption that they will hold their noses and vote for Larsen, who of course will be right below Patty on the ballot.

Though you may be right, maybe some of them will not show up. I think the overwhelming majority of them will though, and if they do they definitely will not vote for Koster.

[ Parent ]
Yes definitely.
Read my point above. Murray topped out here at 53% in 2004 against a bad opponent in George Nethercutt. If the election were today, she would probably lose this district or win it 51-49. Does Larsen get carried down?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Possibly Larsen gets sunk
I ranked this seat Lean Democratic in my rankings and will keep it as such unless I see another poll or I generally downgrade Democratic fortunes in Washington State.

This seat is in play.  I hate PVI, but it is D+3, which means the Democrats could easily lose it in a massive wave or if Larsen gets incompetent.  The Republicans in 2006 lost some seats in 2006 that were R+3 too.  To say the Democrats will not lose such seats is bad analysis.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Correction...
Likely Dem... I will move it to Lean Dem if things get worse.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
To
be honest I think Lean D is a fair rating. His primary performance was less than stellar and if this is really a wave election then I could see him swept out easily. I never thought his seat would be competitive at the beginning of the cycle but a lot has changed. But as long as he runs a competent campaign he should be ok. I hope so at least.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thinking about my point even more...
In 2004, Rossi got 50-47% in this district. I am thinking right now Murray wins election-wide 51-49%. Rossi would probably narrowly win this district. So  I guess it depends on how many people are willing to vote for Rossi/Larsen, which I would guess is at a low point.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
he's only talking about the Dem base here
not everyone.  That's like 10-20% of the primary vote, and probably a very very high percentage of them will turn up for Murray.  It's not hard to see 99% of the BASE turning up.
[ Parent ]
WA-2
Its plausible this seat is in play.  It did go Republican in 1994 and elected a Republican in 1996 and 1998 also.  Obama got 55 percent out of the district in 2008, but Kerry and Gore squeaked out narrower victories in 2004 and 2000 respectively.

I still rank it Likely Democratic until I see more, but I am not completely dismissing this poll even though I will give my usual set of doubts for such a district.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
It is in play
but I'm not seeing it flip unless the enthusiasm gap gets even wider than it is today, and usually the enthusiasm gap narrows in the last month (otherwise the Dems would have picked up 45+ seats in 2006 and 30+ in 2008.)  

We are pumped and ready to go to the polls, the set of GOP voters probably isn't going to get much bigger.  Democrats are not, but I think more of them will vote than is being suggested in these likely voter pools. So I expect some natural tightening in the last few few weeks before the election.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Two things can happen...
I really see the Democratic voters doing one of two things:

1)  They become more interested and tighten the figures, but do not tighten them enough to fight off significant Republican gains (aka 40 seat range), or

2)  They lose interest and believe all hope is lost then proceed to not show up.  

If that is the case, this literally becomes a vicious cycle for the Democrats as more bad news causes the numbers to fall further.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
From anecdotal evidence
and from history, it will be #1.  The numbers will tighten at the end, but independents and stronger GOP turnout will result in a pickup of 40-45 seats.  Scenario #2 rarely happens for either party, except in very rare circumstances, i.e. Watergate.

For one, I expect states with strong union machines or blacks to turnout much more than the polls are showing now, and tightening races in those states.  States like Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania seem to result in better election day turnout for the Dems than the polls show.  I recall 2000 for example when the Bush strategists whom I knew saw Michigan as a tossup and expected to carry Pennsylvania.  And two weeks out Debbie Stabenow trailed Sen Abraham by a dozen in polls, but came back to win.


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
And while 40-45 seats may seem like a huge pickup
my feeling is that if the enthusiasm gap stays where it is today, it could be a good 55-70 seats.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Not so crazy
An expected primary bounce for Koster, who upset Larsen by winning the primary.  
[ Parent ]
Funky crosstabs again.
They've got Koster winning the 18-34 age group over Larsen by a mind-numbing 59%-37% margin.  Now, that's only based on 77 people, which translates to a whopping 11.17% margin of error.  So even with SUSA's bizarre young people vote sample, margin of error means SUSA could be very well saying it's tied at 48%-48% among young people.  (Or that Koster is winning them 70%-26%.)

The poll also has 10% of Republicans going for Larsen, and 10% of Democrats voting for Koster.  Is Koster considered a moderate Republican that can actually get Democrats to cross over to vote for him if they don't like Larsen?  They have Koster winning 53%-41% among Independents.

Koster is also getting 30% of pro-choice voters in the poll.  Is Koster pro-life?  If so, Larsen could hit him on that to drive away at least some pro-choice votes from Koster.

[ Parent ]
Good catch on the crosstabs
It's even more unbelievable when you consider that WA-02 is home to Western Washington University, a bastion of liberal thought if there ever was one. They all get back to school in two weeks or so for fall quarter, and they vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

And Koster is as anti-choice as anyone possibly could be. Take any given issue and Koster is extreme right, similar to many of our favorite Tea Party Senate candidates across the country. Unfortunately Larsen hasn't done a great job so far of associating Koster with that craziness.

[ Parent ]
WA has all mail balloting too
I think the enthusiasm gap will be slightly easier to manage.

And I hadn't even thought of WVU yet.

The ONLY counties Larsen lost in his rather weak primary performance were Whatcom (very narrowly, and other Dems got a lot of votes) and Snohomish (Koster's base).

As long as Larsen doesn't go Coakley, and does all the things that a candidate running for office should do, he should be fine.

And actually, I think Patty Murray will win this district, it has gotten more Democratic over time.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Murray
is not going to win this district, or if she did, it would be very close. (at least if the election were today) In 2004, she won it with 53% against George Nethercutt, who did not run a wonderful campaign. Now she faces Dino Rossi, a better candidate, in a Republican year.

Rossi won WA-02 in 2004 (50-47), but lost WA-02 in 2008 (52-47). I expect it to be very close here, with Murray doing worse than Gregoire's performance in 2008, but better than her's in 2004.

A common theme among statewide Democrats is to do worse than their statewide totals here.

Rossi's candidate strength could pull Koster over the line.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Home means Nevada...
So I'm DEFINITELY keeping up with NV-Sen & NV-03. I was VERY pleased by today's Razzy results. If they show Harry Reid slightly ahead, then I'd say hs in a good position to start the home stretch & Dina Titus is probably also in a good position. (As I explained in an earlier thread, and Jon Ralston has also talked about, Harry's & Dina's political fortunes are VERY much tied at the hip.

I'm actually on my way to see Harry tonight at the "LGBT for Harry Reid" meet & greet, so would you like me to say howdy for y'all? ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

hello all...
...this is my first post in quite awhile. i'm out on the north fork of long island right now. any thoughts on tim bishop? i see LOTS of signs for randy altshuler and chris cox. just saw a pretty good ad on local tv for bishop. i love this area and would hate to see it go gop.
a digest not too long ago
mentioned there is some great cat fud in the GOP primary so they're going to be broke just in time to face Bishop.
[ Parent ]
Billy Kennedy is the real deal.
Elect a great candidate with the added bonus of him defeating the odious Virginia Foxx.  
calling...
...virginia foxx "odious" is letting her off easy.  
[ Parent ]
if repubs take back the senate
one advantage is who they're electing.  Dick Morris and Erick Erickson predict (yeah, i know, i know, they're idiots, but still...)that republicans will once again shut down the government and they win.  I believe the former, but not the latter.  imagine if that happens and angle, buck, mcmahon, and especially paul all sneak out from under mcconnel's eye and get on the air.  how do you think the public will view republicans as they cheer about government shutdowns as people lose their benefits, jobs, etc in quite possibly the worst time imaginable?  That'll just drive their numbers down further.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
But at what cost?
...though that lends credence to my theory that every generation needs to experience some significant suffering in order to get things done right, due to human nature.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
another thing is
there have been reports of businesses hoarding billions of dollars because they're too scared to invest.  the main problem with the economy, for BIG business owners, may be mental.  if the republicans win and create deadlock, they will be likely to start investing again, creating jobs and making it more likely obama will be re-elected.  honestly, i'm starting to think it'd be better to let them get power and tear themselves apart, than have them fester for another two years because they were "this close" to winning.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I don't know about any of that
But its a long stretch to see anyone voting for Republicans based on the belief that gridlock will spur employment.  If either party could prove that point both house of COngress would be split evenly down the middle every cycle.
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying people will vote for republicans to create gridlock
but big biz will start investing once washington is gridlocked.  a stable market is usually seen as the best type to invest in.  if the dem prez and rep congress are fighting, they won't be creating any new laws that would effect business any time soon.  thus, in a more stable environment, they'll start investing and expanding and will accidentally create more jobs.  just a theory mind you.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
That's their theory...
But the reality of the 1990s is much more complicated. Recovery actually did begin under Poppy Bush's watch, but it was slow, and like today the jobless numbers were pretty stagnant. Then, Clinton took office and passed his economic recovery plan. Then came 1994 and the GOP takeover, but by then jobless numbers were already falling. (From what I remember, the economy wasn't a major issue in 1994.)

Businesses invest in a good business environment. Simple as that. And at this point, we need more investment, yes even public investment, to encourage the private sector to do likewise.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Many companies do play both sides
i.e. donate to both sides, usually for incumbent protection.

For example: http://www.opensecrets.org/pac...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
true, but
no CEO has called boehner a socialist yet.  they do play to both sides, but they seem pretty pissed at obama and the dems right now, especially after FINREG.  regardless of whether or not the new laws were necessary, BIG BIZ's anger seems to be squarely at the dems now.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Divided government is good in the short term
Divided government is typically good for the economy in the short term because businesses get predictability.  Businesses love predictability when it comes to investing capital.  It takes a certain amount of risk out of the equation.

That said long term gridlock helps nobody.  Pressing needs get ignored and we are left with statutory schemes that do not work well with modern circumstances.  In pretty much every area of domestic policy we need a substantial revision of some statute to meet modern circumstances.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Perhaps that's why Obama is seemingly thowing the election?
He thinks a GOP house will jump start the economy he needs to get re-elected?

That's the only explanation I have for the horribly hamfisted "mosque" comments he made a few weeks ago... No one is that incompetent to not even notify congressional leadership... That had to be deliberate... it had to be a giant hanging curveball deliberately thrown down the center of the plate...

[ Parent ]
Or maybe the white house has just lost all political competance....
They were so good on the campaign trail, and ever since then, they've played politics worse than Mike Dukakis... I don't get it.  How could they have become so incompetent?
[ Parent ]
I know, I feel the same way
I still have my Obama sticker on my car, and I'm rooting for him. But it does seem as though he campaigns like JFK and governs like Dukakis. He keeps his dignity, generally a losing strategy in politics. He's let the right seize the momentum this summer, just as he did last summer.

But I'm hoping and expecting he'll wake up this fall. Perhaps he's already started, since his poll numbers have been creeping up lately. Of course, as we all know, at bottom, it's the economy, stupid. That's the anchor around the Democrats' neck.

Nevertheless, I'm anticipating the races will tighten, as the extreme positions of most Republicans become clear. With luck and some rediscovered competence, we may be able to confine most of our losses to the South and may be able to keep both houses. That would probably mean that Democratic dominance will be around for a while and that the Republican party would fall into a civil war.

Gee, I've ended more optimistically than I had intended!

[ Parent ]
That seemed to happen two years ago...
I remember the "McMentum" during July and August, the faux-scandals, and of course "Palin-mania". For a moment, it looked like Obama would blow the election. But then when the bottom fell out with the banking crisis, Obama took charge while McCain lost it. It was the turning point when Obama clinched the election.

Perhaps the same will happen again, except this time maybe a very positive economic development. Or maybe it will be something else. But whatever the case, I really do think the final results won't be as extreme as what some of the DC pundits are breathlessly screaming about. I'm just doing what I have to do here, and I can't wait to shock them. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
the Obama team really believes all the rhetoric from the campaign. Sure it would work to act as a team of uniters and not a team of dividers if the GOP they were working with wasn't so polarized. This is not the GOP Clinton had to work with. Which might be because many of the moderates in the GOP have either retired, been primaried by conservative Republicans, or their seats were captured by Democrats.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Overreach
The Obama administration has engaged in a classic example of overreach.  They took the analysis of the 2008 as the beginning of a Democratic era to heart when it appears it was a mere repudiation of the Bush era.  The US is a center-right country even though what I think makes it a center-right country is shifting.

In an effort to find why Bush was repudiated and why some Republicans who went Democratic but now are going back to the Republicans, I asked a few people who fit into that category.  Clearly an unscientific test, but I was interested in what I would find among my upper middle class, white collar suburban neighbors and peers that are generally 20-45.

First, most of them lost faith in the Republicans at the national level because of two factors:
A)  Incompetency.  For them Republicans have always been the competent party especially among suburban voters.
B)  Social issues.  While ideology plays a part in this, the focus and tone on social issues really scared a lot of them off.

Second, most of them gained faith in the Democrats at the national level in response to Republican insanity on social issues and botching of the Iraq War.

Third, most of them had the impression that the Democrats would largely keep the Bush economic agenda in place in terms of taxes and even spending.  They seemed like they were voting for something more competent and less social issue driven.

Fourth, their repudiation of Obama is based off a mixture of competency and ideology.  For some reason, they failed to realize Obama was not going to be another Clinton.  They thought he would be another second term of Clinton or first term of Rendell here in Pennsylvania basically enacting a center / center-right agenda.  

If anything, they think Obama has failed on the issues they really care about like the environment and infrastructure while paying attention to an issue they are not as concerned about like healthcare.  I was shocked how many of them used the term Obamacare in a clearly negative tone.  Now they are suffering from buyer's remorse.

Fifth, the economy is weighing in, but it is just one of many factors.  It seems like the Democrats are dying from a thousand papercuts among white upper-middle/upper class suburban voters.  This really goes with the forth observation, but it really stuck out how the economy is not the dominating factor.

Personally, I am not shocked by the answers to my questions, but it was a little surprising to see how many people thought Obama would be another Clinton.  I really do not know how the Democrats deal with this mentality.  White upper-middle and upper class suburban voters with white collar jobs want something they are simply not going to get these days.  They want largely Republican economic policies coupled with the Democrats being more socially aggressive on issues like gay marriage and the environment while basically letting the social welfare state wither in the wind.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
2 quick things
1.  Obama is a clinton presidency... where clinton was at this point.  granted obama might be doing worse in terms of popularity, but he did accomplish more too (HCR, FINREG to name the big ones).

2.  If repubs win, like i said earlier, I expect them to misread the tea leaves as bad or worse than Obama.  don't be surprised if there's massive austerity budgets, govt shutdowns and social issues that go no where.  My suspicion is, people like austerity in theory, just like how they like going to the gym to lose weight in theory. until they actually try it.

This is all I have to say about this.  (in other words, sorry for going off topic, i'll stop now).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Actually
Obama is more popular than Clinton was at this point

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Is this discussion crossing too far into policy?
Just a caution.

In addition, the folks behind this site seem to want to keep the focus away from purely Presidential politics too.

If I remember right, policy discussions are ok --IF-- they are directly correlated to election analysis, preferably of Congressional elections.

[ Parent ]
Not policy, but trying to understand what is going on electorally
I am not bringing up the merits of their policy stances, but what is causing people to move electorally one way or another.  

The correlation between Obama and Clinton in their first two years is important to understanding what will happen in November.  The polling and perceptions of both are key in determining what is going to happen to whom electorally.  If we understand that, it helps in predicting which races are really competitive, which ones are a done deal and which ones we might need to take a greater look at down the road.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I think it might be best
To move on from here. Potentially interesting, but really prone to derails. And we would really, really like to have a quiet holiday weekend around here.
[ Parent ]
It
may be, I am not sure. That was my only comment and I was just pointing a factual thing out. I was not attempting to be part of the discussion.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I agree its completely irrational
For some reason people are forgetting Clinton's first two years.  It is like they never happened.

I suspect Obama starts caving on a number of issues if the Republicans take both the House and Senate.  He might start caving even before the Republicans take control by enacting whatever this Deficit Commission recommends with a lame duck Congress.  He could push it through before the Republicans take over if he frames the debate as whatever the Commission recommending being more palatable to whatever the Republicans would do on their own.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
What happens in your opinion?
if we take over the House narrowly (pickup of 40-45 seats), and narrowly miss the Senate? (say +7 seats)?  Keeping this on topic, do you think the GOP leadership can keep the tea party folks at bay and not shut down the government?

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info... it's certainly helpful...
The disappointing thing is that Obama HAS been like Clinton (except for all the obsequiousness to the GOP) and has enacted a center-right agenda.  His economic policies are far from "liberal", and the health care bill was written by the Heritage Institute... It sounds like no matter what he did or tried, it would have been tarred as being "too liberal" regardless of the content.  He should have just gone all in.

I don't think that the political team misread the 2008 results... They bent over backwards to get GOP approval (major mistake in my mind--showed weakness and lack of confidence in governing)... They weakened every bit of legislation they could to make it more "conservative", which ultimately backfired among the base.

Now, it's too late to fix it... What a shame and what a great opportunity that has been lost, possibly for a long, long time...

[ Parent ]
I agree with this for the most part
I used to live a wealthy suburban district (IL-13) and live in one today (TX-3), both of which seem to have shifted a bit to the Dems than a decade ago.  But it needs to be clearly understood these same voters will have no hesitation in giving Obama another term.

Nancy Pelosi in 2007-2008, to the surprise of many, understood this and for the most part reined in the extreme left of her party, who were calling for defunding the Iraq war and other sorts of stuff. Which is why we were in such dire straits and were completely unable to paint Obama and the Democrats as "far left", because they didn't do anything to justify that label.

The question is whether Speaker Boehner can/will have the courage to do the same for tea party folks.  If he is unable to do so, and we have another government shutdown due to trying to defund Obamacare, we will be handing Obama another term.  Bank on it.  

Obamacare is analogous to the Iraq war in many ways politically, none more so than the political perils in going too far in opposition.



38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
The mosque comments....
... aren't going to have an effect on the midterms. These kinds of media-driven controversies always get big play, but in the end, the number of votes that are determined by this are going to be close to nill.

Second, Obama was absolutely right to speak out, because this had become a fairly ugly national issue. There are things that are worth doing on principle, whatever the politics.  

[ Parent ]
This is why
as a Republican, I hope we get to exactly 49 seats in the Senate.  It is because I don't think Boehner and McConnell have the guts to stand up to the tea party folks and the other nuts, and they will again shut the government down just because they can and in doing so will hand Obama a second term.  Not to mention that some of these guys really scare me, conservatism throughout history has been one that values ideas and intellectualism, and in contrast the tea party pride themselves on being anti-intellectual to the hilt.


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Tea Party Express poll claims Castle only up by 6 over O'Donnell
maybe
the new adventures of old christine can be renewed.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
oh god i hope that isn't a tease


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I am about 90% sure it is. nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
nothing past the top lines in the article
seems like a far-flung fridge (fff) to me, especially against a popular many term at large rep.

also, anyone care to enlighten on the etymology of the triple f?

[ Parent ]
Bull
My guess is this thing looks more like 64-28. TPX is trying to add fuel to a fire which, in reality, is basically non-existent.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Open Thread Topic
This may have been done already I do not know. Pick any two people to be your representatives in Washington. Two Senators and one Congressman. No one from your state. For me it would be Bernie Sanders and Barbara Boxer for Senate and for Congress it would probably be Chet Edwards.

Round Two Open Thread Topic
Basically the same question except pick two senate candidates and one congressional candidates running this year to be your Senators and Congress member. No incumbents. For me it would be Jack Conway and Joe Sestak for Senate and probably Hanson Clarke for Congress.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

asdf
1. Russ Feingold, Bernie Sanders, and Barney Frank.
2. Roxanne Conlin, Joe Sestak, and Ann McLane Kuster.
[ Parent ]
Interesting
1) Senate: Ben Nelson / Mark Warner
House: Gene Taylor

2) Senate: Charlie Melancon / Charlie Crist
House: Steve Raby

[ Parent ]
For me
Senate: McAdams and Carnahan
House: Tarryl Clark

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
You'll be saddened to hear
that the Tarryl Clark ads are kind of meh.  The one I saw on tv last night looked like it was put together for $500 and I dont remember what it was saying at all.

Bachmann is in trouble for using the State Fair logo in her ads and has had to change it two times now.  But hers have a theme throughout that features "Jim the election guy" who talks about Taxin Tarryl in an infomercial way that's kind of cute.  Probably no plans to run a single positive ad yet.

[ Parent ]
Mine
Senate: Sherrod Brown, Sanders
House: Lee (CA) (God, I hope she's not ensnared in a scandal like many in the CBC)

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
oops...Part Two
Senate: Carnahan, Conlin
House: Tarryl Clark

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Hrm...
Round One:
Senate - Claire McCaskill, Olympia Snowe
House - Carolyn Maloney

Round Two:
Senate - Roxanne Conlin, Elaine Marshall
House - Tarryl Clark

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I'll try
Senators: Bernie Sanders, Al Franken

Representative: Nita Lowey might be a good pick. I'm not as familiar with her record as with the record of my Representative, Jerrold Nadler, who I mostly like a lot. I'm also a fan of Alan Grayson, though I know many of you are not, and he does make me cringe every so often.

Candidates:

Senate: Hodes, maybe Marshall (I'd have to know if she does or did support the current Iraq war)

House: Both Steve Pougnet and Tarryl Clark seem very good to me.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Okay, here goes
Rd 1:

Senators: Pat Leahy, Maria Cantwell
Rep:      Henry Waxman

Rd 2:

Senators: Paul Hodes, Kendrick Meek (even though it's not realistic)
Rep:      Suzanne DelBene (WA-08)

[ Parent ]
Ok
Part 1:

Senators: Bob Bennett/Bob Corker

Representative: Bob Inglis

Part 2:

Senators: Rob Portman/Dan Coats

Rep: Robert Hurt

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
how about
bob aderholt? you've already got 5 bobs in there.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Oops, forgot round 1.
Senate: Schumer and Mikulski
House: Grayson

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Open Thread
Round One
Senate:  Scott Brown and Orrin Hatch
House:  Paul Ryan

Round Two
Senate:  Kelly Ayotte and Dan Coates
House:  Charles Bass

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I'm in
1. Al Franken, Jim Webb, Anthony Weiner
2. Paul Hodes, Alexi Giannoulias, Manan Trivedi

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Open Thread
Been lurking on SSP for over a year now; this site has some of the best political commentary & the absolute best comments section around (even though I hail from the opposite end of the ideological spectrum).  Wanted to chime in since one of my Senate picks will unfortunately no longer be a valid option next year.

Round One
Senate: Tom Coburn, Judd Gregg
House: Jeff Flake

Round Two
Senate: Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey
House: Ryan Frazier

Georgia politicians and candidates excluded, although none would have made the cut anyway.  

[ Parent ]
Freakishly
Close to what I was going to say.
Mine:
Sen: Coburn, Scott Brown
House: Jeff Flake or Paul Ryan

Candidates:
Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina
House: Ryan Frazier
 

[ Parent ]
Since
this seems to be the republican offshoot.

Current:
Sen:Coburn and Demint
House:Paul Ryan

Canidates
Sen:Mike Lee and Joe Miller
House:I really like Frazier and Tim Scott (And then I realize what makes them stand out compaired to everyone else and it worries me, so as you can see I'm quite conflicted)

[ Parent ]
I'll throw in my two cents too
Current:

Sen: Scott Brown or Lamar Alexander
House: Paul Ryan

Candidates:

Sen: Rand Paul and Marco Rubio
House: Allen West

[ Parent ]
I love the crazy....
Senators Alvin Greene and Linda McMahon (I mean who wouldnt want two US Senators who have their own action figures)

And.....

Congressman Basil Marceaux.com (I would like to be immune from all crime for the rest of my life)

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
Senators Al Franken and Sherrod Brown, Representative Tom Perriello (though, for the record, I am quite happy with my congresscritter Martin Heinrich)

Senators Alvin Greene and Sharron Angle Kendrick Meek and Paul Hodes, Representative Collin Hanabusa

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I must be the last one to reply to this,
.. but for me round 1 would be Bernie Sanders as well -  I'd elect him President if I could - and Al Franken, whom I was sceptical about as candidate but who seems to have turned out a solid Senator. For the House, Tom Perriello.

I dont feel qualified enough to answer the second question, there's too much I don't know.  

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
Better late than never!!
As for current officeholders:

Sherrod Brown and Tom Harkin in the Senate
Donna Edwards in the House

As for candidates (and hopefully future officeholders):

Jack Conway and Roxanne Conlin in the Senate
Colleen Hanabusa in the House


[ Parent ]
NC-Sen: curious twitter
http://twitter.com/jmartpolitico

RT @AP_Top25: Sources tell AP the NC Secretary of State subpoenas #TarHeels DT Marvin Austin over whether sports agent laws have been broken

the NC SoS is Elaine Marshall, the D candidate for Sen against Burr.

Does she want to lose?
Going after a Tarheel?  St least it wasn't a basketballer, but still.  I guess this is one way to get her name out for free...
[ Parent ]
If this man did
something illegal she should do her job.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Correct
She should do her job.  She would earn a few points in my book if she did her job and stood up to a bunch of sports fanatics.  That takes guts.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
She is investigating the agent not the player.
Probably looking to revoke the agent's license.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Nobody votes on sports loyalties, and further North Carolinians don't care about football......
North Carolina is one of 3 states, Indiana and Kentucky being the others, where basketball is god, and football is a mere passtime.

And nobody votes on sports loyalties anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Hmmm....
North Carolina is one of 3 states, Indiana and Kentucky being the others, where basketball is god, and football is a mere passtime.

Basketball is big but we are home to the Colts and are pretty big on football as well.

And nobody votes on sports loyalties anyway.
 

Tell that to Brad Henry.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver has his Governor ratings out.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

He has Republicans controlling 30 Governorships.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Ouch
I can't really disagree with him. California scares me though, his simulation gives eMeg a 53% chance of becoming my governor for the next 4 years.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
That's pretty much what I'm expecting
That is, everything above 50% to flip. I think the DGA would be wise to concentrate their fire on Oregon, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Maine. They're close, and pretty cheap to advertise in. And if they want to go for big states, concentrate on Florida and California.
[ Parent ]
Goodness
I know California is a tossup, that's a no-brainer. But the only polls showing eMeg up are SurveyUSA's and one Rass poll (and from reading the comments above and previous days, i'm starting to think something is way off with SUSA's polling). I can believe Whitman is up 2-3 points, but 7 or 8 is just a bit much. Same with Boxer vs Fiorina, only Rasmussen has been more kind to Boxer, and SUSA is the only pollster that shows Fiorina leading. That's just my $.02.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Yeah but
those are the two most recent polls.  My belief in the inevitable Jerry Brown comeback is fading fast.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Has he gone on the air yet?
I don't remember seeing any ads posted yet... he better start doing that quickly.
[ Parent ]
Next week
http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...

$1.2 million statewide Ad buy according to the LA Times.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Have
you noticed like almost every site you visit you're bombarded by eMeg web ads?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Yep
Meg's willing to buy anything these days. Like this story about how conservative blogs were paid $$$ by eMeg to say nice things about her: http://dailycaller.com/2010/08...

It's sickening, its not just her politics i'm against but the way she comes across as this "I'm better than you, you NEED me" mentality. Ugh.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
I feel like
I feel like every time I click an online ad of hers, I'm blowing my nose on one of Meg's dolla bills. And that feels good.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Meg Whitman is a stimulus package
throwing all that money into the California economy

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
She is Everywhere
But I have seen a few anti Meg ads on the huffington post and a few other sites. They are from the unions though and not Jerry Brown  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I agree
I have not moved it to Lean Republican yet simply because I have been thinking Brown would start moving at any moment.  If he does not move within 2 weeks, its going to Lean Republican.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Wow, a 90% chance of Ohio flipping?!
That strikes me as a bit much, but I'm still hard-pressed to question Nate Silver's projection prowess. I agree that things are looking especially dim on the gubernatorial end (followed by House and Senate.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
IF his numbers are correct, Dems should focus on firewall.
Senate:

1. CA-SEN
2. IL-SEN
3. WA-SEN
4. WI-SEN
5. NV-SEN
6. CO-SEN (even this Nate suggests is somewhat out of hand)

Governors:

1. MA-GOV
2. MD-GOV
3. WI-GOV
4. OR-GOV
5. NM-GOV
6. ME-GOV

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Offensively
Nate doesn't give us any real prospects in the Senate.

As to governors, Dems should focus on:

1. CA-GOV
2. FL-GOV
3. MN-GOV
4. CT-GOV
5. VT-GOV
6. HI-GOV (may not need help here)

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Forgot RI-GOV
Probably fits in between Vermont and Hawaii.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
as a
Chafee supporter who is otherwise pretty much a straight D vote, I would be incredibly pissed if the DGA spent on RI. We are not about to elect a Republican governor anytime soon; this election is between Chafee and Caprio. Chafee is actually considered by most to be more progressive than Caprio, and even received the endorsement of Rhode Island's progressive blog. Any money spent in RI is money not spent in Ohio, Maine, etc. (We are on the cheap end as far as advertising goes, but probably more expensive than most people assume given our size.) I know other liberal Democrats who are supporting Chafee, and would you give money to the DGA if they said they were going to spend against a progressive candidate you support when there are so many other races that come first?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hocus-pocus, let's not over-focus.
Nate thinks that there is a 48% chance that Republicans lose the Florida seat.  

But completely disregarding Florida on account of its unique set of facts, Nate also thinks there is a 25% chance Republicans lose Kentucky, a 23% chance Republicans lose New Hampshire, a 21% chance Republicans lose North Carolina, an 18% chance Republicans lose Ohio, a 10 % chance Republicans lose Louisiana, and a 3% chance Republicans lose Georgia.  

Those percentage chances Republicans lose a Republican-held senate seat outside of Florida add up to 100.  

100 without taking into account Nate's thoughts about Missouri, Arizona, Iowa, and Alaska.  

I believe it is fair to say that Nate thinks it likely that Democrats will take away at least one Republican-held seat if they do not focus away takeover opportunities by spending all our dollars on already-adequately funded Democratic incumbents.

I have given quite liberally to Elaine Marshall with my eyes wide-open to the fact that she is a challenger and as-such an underdog.

She has a chance.

And I squeezed loose a tiny contribution to Scott McAdams to honor this blog's opinion.

Nay-sayers need to get in the game.

[ Parent ]
It doesn't make any sense
to add up the percentages like that. The chance of Democrats winning each of those seats is independent in each case. You need to evaluate each case separately.

For example, if Republicans have a 50% chance of losing one seat, and a 50% chance of losing another, they do not have a 100% chance of losing one of them. That is what you are essentially saying in the above analysis.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
What Nate thinks ...
But it does mean the Democrats have an even chance of winning at least one of those two seats.

I reiterate that I believe it is fair to say that Nate thinks it likely that Democrats will take away at least one Republican-held seat if things do not take an  unexpected turn.

[Note:  Things will take an unexpected turn.]

Consider that Nate thinks we have about a 3% chance  Georgia.

Ever play seven card stud?  

Ever get a full house?

Sure you have

According to Nate, the Democrats' chance of winning the Georgia seat are better than your chance at drawing that full house.

Hey:  you make your bets and you take your chances.

But if you don't put any money in, you can't win.


[ Parent ]
Arrrrrrrrrgh.
But completely disregarding Florida on account of its unique set of facts, Nate also thinks there is a 25% chance Republicans lose Kentucky, a 23% chance Republicans lose New Hampshire, a 21% chance Republicans lose North Carolina, an 18% chance Republicans lose Ohio, a 10% chance Republicans lose Louisiana, and a 3% chance Republicans lose Georgia.

Those percentage chances Republicans lose a Republican-held senate seat outside of Florida add up to 100.

WTF???  Adding up to 100% means NOTHING in this regard.  This is complete and utter nonsense.

That is NOT what Nate is saying at all.

Since you brought up poker, let's say you're in a hand where it turns out you're dominated 80%-20%.  You only have a 20% chance of winning the hand.

Say this happens 5 times.

That does NOT mean it's a 100% guarantee you WILL win at least once in those 5 times.  Yes, it's likely that you'll win at least one time, but it's NOWHERE NEAR A 100% GUARANTEE.

Either you win at least once, or you lose all 5 times.  The probabilities of those two things must add up to 100%.  So what's the probability you'd lose all 5 times?

(0.8)^5 = 0.32768

That means there's a 67% chance you'd win at least once.  But that's NOT 100%.


Now, going back to what you wrote, it also means there's a 75% chance the GOP wins Kentucky, 77% they win NH, 79% they win NC, 82% they win OH, 90% they win LA, and 97% they win GA.  These events are basically independent (or the dependence is complex enough it won't do us much good to craft complex formulas to figure out exactly how one state will influence the other).  So again, either the GOP wins all those seats, or Democrats win at least one of them.  The probability the GOP wins all those seats can be found from simply multiplying the probabilities together:

(0.75)*(0.77)*(0.79)*(0.82)*(0.90)*(0.97) = 0.3266

That means there's a 67.34% chance Democrats will pick up at least one of those seats.  Not bad, and yes, perhaps even "likely", but again, it is NOT A 100% GUARANTEE we will.  I cannot stress that enough.

If you really believe this...

Those percentage chances Republicans lose a Republican-held senate seat outside of Florida add up to 100.

... has any statistical meaning, then I really hope to meet you at the poker tables one day, because I will be winning a lot of money from you when you think because you lost the last 5 hands, you're GUARANTEED to win the next one because your separate chances of winning those 6 hands added up to 100%.  :-)

[ Parent ]
What Nate thinks ...
BruinKid quotes my argument as "it's a 100% guarantee Democrats WILL win at least once" in those six races.  Actually I very carefully did not say that "Democrats will win one of the six races" I mentioned.

I thought using the words "those add up to a hundred" might startle to the point of awakeness those following the "offensively Nate doesn't give us any real prospects in the Senate"/"we should build a firewall" around already adequately-funded incumbents from often-Democratic states, apparently at the expense even of open seats in Obama states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, New Hampshire, Delaware, and Connecticut (and clearly at the expense of Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Georgia).  Frankly the unsettledness of the commentators addressing the "those add up to a hundred" language indicates that it did startle.

What I did say is Nate thinks we have a 25% chance in Kentucky, a 23% chance in New Hampshire, a 21% chance in North Carolina, an 18% chance in Ohio, a 10 % chance in Louisiana, and a 3% chance in Georgia.  Those percentage chances add up to 100.  I did not conclude that "therefore Democrats will win one of the six races."  I did conclude that "I believe it is fair to say that Nate thinks it likely that Democrats will take away at least one Republican-held seat if they do not focus away takeover opportunities by spending all our dollars on already-adequately funded Democratic incumbents."

BruinKid  is actually parroting DartCon's take on my comment.  For DartCon argued that I "essentially" said was "if Republicans have a 50% chance of losing one seat, and a 50% chance of losing another, they [] have a 100% chance of losing one of them."  It is significant that Dartcon's made his point by saying that Republicans were not necessarily going to lose either of his hypothetical 50/50 seats.  It is an example of  Republican/Tea Party/Fox sophists having neutered us to the extent that we cannot even say that there is a possibility that Democrats will win.  A helpful way to frame that information would be to say that in those circumstances Democrats and Republicans would each have an equal chance of winning one or both seats.  But some disability prevents commentators from speaking that way.

This back-and-forth started with spiderdem's comment that if Nate's numbers are correct Democrats should "focus on firewall," mentioning a half-dozen already-adequately-funded races like Barbara Boxer's and Harry Reid's.  Then spiderdem replied to his own comment with "offensively Nate doesn't give us any real prospects in the Senate."  

I said (and this is the third time) that "I believe it is fair to say that Nate thinks it likely that Democrats will take away at least one Republican-held seat."

Poor, exasperated BruinKid showed his work "(0.75)*(0.77)*(0.79)*(0.82)*(0.90)*(0.97) = 0.3266."  He concluded "that means there's a 67.34% chance Democrats will pick up at least one of those seats."

If Nate checked BruinKid's work (I didn't) and found that BruinKid's work was correct, then BruinKid must believe it is fair to say that Nate thinks it likely that Democrats will take away at least one Republican-held seat if nothing unexpected happens.  

Although obviously BruinKid didn't reach the gravamen of the argument about netroots tactics and priorities, he did inadvertently make my points (and with admirable mathematic precision):  

We can win.  

We should cast our nets broadly.

Although all of my extra money is going into Democratic races for now, I would enjoy poker game with BruinKid after election day.  I'll need to replenish the coffers.

[ Parent ]
Statistics don't work that way. in elections
They would work as you suggest -- ONLY if the different races were being run in independent universes, in different years, over the very long run, over a large number of races.

In any election year, there are factors that affect multiple races, such as the national environment.

So if one race at 50% goes for one party, where national factors are involved, it's likely that the other race goes for the same party.

[ Parent ]
And yet both parties win seats every election.
As to each race in relationship to its own facts including its relationship to the national environment, Nate's assessment reduces to a statistic the chance that the party holding the seat loses it.  

Nate is held to be pretty good at that kind of work.  

And all of the foregoing discussion suggests that Nate thinks it likely that Democrats will take away at least one Republican-held seat if nothing changes.  

But like so many in the progressive blogosphere tietack is just so owned by the dominant narrative that he just can't let Nate's opinion pass without trying to chop it down with a trite, conclusory axiom.  

[ Parent ]
I think Nate would agree with me
Different political races are not independent trials like different coin flips.

They all depend in part on common variables.

I was pointing out a problem with your (user wayoutonthesteppe) analysis.

Given the common variables, it is statistically faulty to add up the percentages from different races.

[ Parent ]
Second part
This is not a true statement
Nate thinks it likely that Democrats will take away at least one Republican-held seat if nothing changes.  

as any statistician experienced with political analysis understands that different races are not independent trials.

But like so many in the progressive blogosphere

This (SSP) is an uncommon place in the blogsphere.

tietack is just so owned

I object to the personal conclusion about me. What do you know about me as a person?

by the dominant narrative

Please define.

he just can't let Nate's opinion pass

I believe I've shown how you've misinterpreted Nate's numbers. Furthermore, it is faulty for you to combine his numbers in the way you did -- I believe that is one way where Nate would disagree with you.

without trying to chop it down

I live by facts and data.

with a trite, conclusory axiom.

Facts and data are never trite. In addition, I did not come to a conclusion about Nate's data.

[ Parent ]
offensively Nate does give us real prospects in the Senate

Gosh.  tietack says "statistics don't work that way. in elections" [sic]

(I am catty enough to use [sic], even though my own posts set records for grammatical errors.)

tietack has said he lives by facts and data.  

What a very sad life.  

Moreover, although tietack lives by facts and data, he doesn't use any.  He asserts that:

"In any election year, there are factors that affect multiple races, such as the national environment.

"So if one race at 50% goes for one party, where national factors are involved, it's likely that the other race goes for the same party."

"Any" election year?  

What exactly is a "national factor" that might be present in one given election year, where in another there might be an absence of any national factors?

"Likely?"  How likely?  Got a fact or a number on that?

An assertion that  "in any election year ... it's likely that the other race goes for the same party" is a conclusory, factless, statisticless axiom.  It is a trite, parroting repetition of DC conventional wisdom.  

My close friend BruinKid very pedantically showed how statistics work.  in elections.

BruinKid said that not even taking into account Florida, Missouri, Arizona, Iowa, or Alaska (in each of which states Nate believes a challenger for a Republican-held seat stands at least some chance) there is a 67.34% chance Democrats will pick up at least one of Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Louisiana, or Georgia.  

--

Three things:

1. Just say it.  Out loud.  (its empowering):  "spiderdem was wrong when he said that 'offensively Nate doesn't give us any real prospects in the Senate.'"  

We have opportunities this cycle; opportunities that -- should we rise to them -- promise a brighter today and a brighter tomorrow for us, for the Republic, and for our children.

2. Campaigns do matter.  Chatter about who is going to win everything or who is going to lose everything on Labor Day serves no purpose and has no meaning, except to the extent that -- as now -- a relentless drumbeat of negativity can drown out all conflicting information and smother nascent election efforts (thus effecting election outcomes).  

Here's a trite axiom:  60 days is an eternity in politics.

3. I keep writing about "what Nate thinks."  Nate could put me in my place.


[ Parent ]
According
to Joe Miller, his campaign is funded by god.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

I misread your title. I thought you said 'funded by gold', which makes somewhat more sense
Either way, it's pretty strange.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Funded by God
Hmm... if you are a true blue capitalist, you might think money is god.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
PPP
out with Texas (Governor) polls and Maine (Governor, Senate 2012) polls next week.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
kentucky didn't win?
wow, i could see the diminishing money bombs being part of the economy, but this?  even the paulbots don't care any more.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yeah.
Pretty lackluster choices. I was hoping for West Virginia.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised if Kos commissions a WV poll soon
especially if Rasmussen continues to show it close.
[ Parent ]
Missouri Senate
A Blunt is beating a Carnahan in most recent polling, this is troubling to say the least.  Is anyone else trouble that we aren't running a MO-9 which has some fairly blue college towns or do we take the approach of the less candidates, the more resources to spend on other races?  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

if we couldnt win it in 2008
then we certainly wont be winning it in 2010
[ Parent ]
You're correct
I still wonder whether we should have put someone on the ballot.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

[ Parent ]
Yes, we should have
Put someone on the ballot, especially because Blaine Luetkemyer (probably spelling that wrong, don't really care) is sucky, and only got 50% in a R+9 district with Dem Judy Baker hot on his heels at 47.5% in 2008. But he's now going to become entrenched kinda automatically. That said, it's one of Missouri's more conservative districts, so depressed turnout here will actually help Carnahan.

If I had to pick, I think we should've actually run a sacrificial lamb from Columbia. Someone who can turn out students and liberals, but is weak enough that Republicans aren't too motivated to turn out to defeat him.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
IA-Gov, IA-Sec of Agriculture, IA-AG
The half a billion egg recall becoming an issue in these campaigns (see also here). Our outstanding Democratic candidate for secretary of agriculture, Francis Thicke, has called out the incumbent for doing nothing to inspect the feed mills that were the source of the salmonella outbreak.

The biggest opportunist of the week is Brenna Findley, Steve King's longtime chief of staff who is running for attorney general against a 28-year incumbent. All year she's been talking about how we need a more "business-friendly" AG, but she's trying to get mileage out of the egg recall now.

Open Thread Game
Well it's not really a game but it is somewhat interesting task. Go to the Rasmussen Reports Face Book page and click on ten random people who "liked" the page and tally up what political party they are. You can usually tell by looking at their likes, if not just put that you couldn't tell. I'm not saying anything about their reliability but it is just interesting to look at. I would link the page but I am worried that it would put my personal FB info on there, not sure if it would or not so I'm not going to try. Sunday night I will average all of the results to see Rasmussen's fans political leanings.  

My Results of ten Rasmussen likers

Republicans- 7
Couldn't Tell- 2
Democrat- 1

So what did you get?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

My score
R-D-DK

8-0-2. Pretty clear. (If the only things were "jesus is god!!11!" I did not count that as R, but I did count at least one Tea Party supporter as Republican.)

The link: http://www.facebook.com/#!/pag...

That should work for most.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Oh dear
Republicans-9
Democrats-1
Unknown-0

The funny thing is that the one Democrat seemed like a genuine Democrat (two of her likes were Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy, aw we miss 'ya Teddy!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Shutout
Republicans-10 (although one seemed fairly moderate. Liked Arnie and Lieberman. )

18, Dem, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Results
85% R
10% UK
5% D

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Facebook stalking, SSP style
I love it!

(Disclaimer: I'm kind of an FB creepster. :/)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Eric Wargotz's new ad


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
am I being too paranoid
or is he making fun of her age

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Funny ad
Long shot candidates really do need to be a little out there with their ads. If your the underdog and got nothing to lose then their is no harm putting out a far out ad and hoping it gets noticed and you catch lightning in a bottle.

Its the "Dale Petterson" or "Obama Girl" effect that I think Poli Sci classes will be studying for ages.  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

[ Parent ]
Jan Brewer's mistakes are now an ad as well.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Almost a minute, so must be just a web ad? If so, it's useless. Goddard needs...
...broadcast spots on the air right away.

And the ad itself doesn't actually attack the headless bodies claim as a myth!  You CAN'T assume voters KNOW it's a myth.  You have to SAY it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Congressman on Facebook


26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Facebook is the bane of my existence
My boss has a regular profile and a fan page (like ole Frank, apparently) and I do upkeep on both and now crap like that has started to happen all the time. If I ever meet Mark Zuckerberg, he's getting a kick in the nuts only slightly less intense than the one I'm saving for Bill Gates.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Open Thread Exercise
While I highly doubt this happens, but lets just say for arguments sake that the bottom completely falls from under the Democrats and they lose 60 to 70 House seats.  Unlikely, but possible if things got bad enough.

Under such a scenario, which House Democrats do you think would become vulnerable to being swept away in such a wave?  


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

herseth sandlin
hasn't led in a single poll yet (though they've all been rassy's) and SD is the type of state that would kick out an incumbent just to send a message to washington (especially the western side of the state).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
In '94, WA went from 8-1 D to 7-2 R
In part because most of the districts are fairly well balanced. In a 60-70 seat scenario, WA-03 would be gone, along with 2 or 3 of WA-02, WA-09, OR-01 and OR-05.
[ Parent ]
I've always said
IA-03 wouldn't be in the first 40 seats we lose. If Zaun beats Boswell, we've already lost the House.

In a doomsday scenario of 60-70 lost seats, we would lose some districts that aren't on anyone's radar now. Maybe some with strong Democratic PVIs, but also high unemployment. IA-02 is D+7 but has some of the worst pockets of unemployment in Iowa. I don't really think Mariannette Miller-Meeks could pull off an upset of Loebsack, partly because some of the GOP base (stupidly) thinks she's a RINO. But that's the kind of district we might lose in this scenario.

[ Parent ]
That would be an ironic turnaround
Few people outside of Iowa and the online poker community were paying attention to Leach vs. Loebsack in 2006, and IA-02 was the shocker of the night. Could it happen again in the same district?

As for my prediction, I've always maintained that Niki Tsongas has soft support in MA-05 and could go down in a wave. She'd probably need Charlie Baker to win the governor's race though for her to lose.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Tsongas
If her opponent raises more money, I could see her going down. I think she got very lucky that the guy she barely beat in 2007 didn't run again. This would be a very competitive race.  
[ Parent ]
MILLER-MEEKS just released a poll
showing her just 5 points down

(D)-47%
(R)-42%

http://www.millermeeks.com/new...

[ Parent ]
Well, Loebsack should be fine then.

[ Parent ]
I wonder what the question was
"If you knew that David Loebsack eats new-born kittens for dinner while wiping his face with the American flag and Mariannette Miller-Meeks saved a baby from a fire while reciting the national anthem, who would you vote for in November?"

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
poll was in the field almost 6 wks ago
and a lot of information was missing from the polling memo:

General Overview: Loebsack Is Vulnerable, Dr. Miller-Meeks Can Win
Recent polling shows that GOP congressional candidate Miller-Meeks is in a very competitive race that if
properly funded and messaged, can win. Consider the following points:
• Among those most likely to vote Loebsack has a near fatal reelect, where a 47% plurality say it's time to give a new person a chance compared to only 36% who say the incumbent has done his job well enough to deserve reelection. Typically, incumbents with 40% reelects or lower are vulnerable because it means they don't have a strong base of support, while a significant sentiment for change exists.
• Among those most likely to vote the congressional "generic" ballot is a statistical dead heat (at 38R/39D). This is significant because even though President Obama carried this district in 2008 the poll proves voters lean Republican this year and will split their tickets for a GOP candidate.
• Despite 4 years in office incumbent Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack has a weak image, at 39% to 32% favorable to unfavorable (or slightly better than 1:1) among those most likely to vote. In comparison, Miller-Meeks has a better than 2:1 ratio in hard name ID including total name ID of 78% after a convincing primary win, with more room to grow.
• On the initial ballot test among those most likely to vote the race is a statistical dead heat (at 46/41 Loebsack). Moreover, Loebsack holds only a tenuous 29% to 22% lead in intensity among those "definitely" voting for either candidate, which shows his support is a mile wide but only an inch deep.
• After voters learn more about both candidates the "informed" ballot shifts to a 44/40 Miller-Meeks lead, including an even stronger 49/38 Miller-Meeks lead among those most likely to vote.
Methodology: Poll was conducted June 23-25 with 400 likely voters for the Mariannette Miller-Meeks for Congress Committee. Voters with prior vote history were contacted with a special emphasis on G09, G07 and G06 to reflect turnout in a non-presidential year. Plus, a "vote intensity screen" was used to filter out voters unlikely to vote in the upcoming election. The margin of error for a 400 sample size is +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level.

[ Parent ]
desmoinesdem, what you're saying is wrong, you can't say that about ANY seat......
If I told you on Labor Day 2006 that Carol Shea-Porter would beat Jeb Bradley, how many seats would you have guessed we'd pick up?  I bet more than the mere 30 we got.  Keep in mind that race wasn't on ANY lists AT ALL, nor did I ever find tea leaves suggesting it was close heading into election day.  That distinguished it from all our other takeaways in 2006 and 2008, as I saw at least one bit of information for everything else suggesting a win was plausible.

Boswell is in trouble, we could lose "only" 35 seats and he could be one of the 35, with a bunch of other vulnerable Democrats surprisingly surviving.

There's no one House seat that can be pointed to as establishing "x" number of pickups if it flips.  There's more chaos than that in House results.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In non-horrible news for Dems, SurveyUSA...
looked at VA-09, and found Rick Boucher (D) beating Morgan Griffith (R) 50%-40%.  And that's even with their still-funky numbers among young people, with Griffith winning the 18-34 age group by a 49%-37% margin.  (That's with an 11% margin of error, though.)
SC-2 Ethics problems for Joe "you lie' Wilson
http://www.thestate.com/2010/0...

I wouldn't be too surprised to see 5 of 6 SC congressmen as Freshmen next year. Hopefully Spratt holds on though.  

NY-15: NY Times bucks Rangel, endorses Joyce Johnson
This Times endorsement of Johnson probably helps Rangel
by splitting the anti-Rangel vote even further by creating a 4th legitimate challenger in the race (Ruben Vargas runs for something every year in East Harlem and doesnt really count).

The Times basically endorsed the 4th least known of the 5 challengers in the race. Raising it from a 3 way split of the serious anti Rangel vote to a full 4 way split.

Adam Clayton Powell is Rangel's most serious opponent. While Tasini might be (as The Times calls him) a perennial liberal candidate he still has a bit of a base on the white Upper West Side portion of the district and even Vince Morgan has a bit of a following.

Basically any votes that would be swayed by a Times endorsement is already an anti-Rangel vote so this will probably cost Powell and Tisani more votes than Rangel.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

[ Parent ]
Tribune IL-GOV poll numbers
Brady (R) - 37%
Quinn (D) - 32%
Scott Lee Cohen (I) - 4%
Rich Whitney (G) - 2%
Lex Green (I) - 2%

http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

Most optimistic numbers I've seen for Brady in awhile.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
brady or quinn?
b/c brady's been favored or at least been slightly ahead for a few months now.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Right I meant Quinn.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Scott Lee Cohen. Ugh.
I can't believe this guy is gonna win hundreds of thousands of votes come November. Again, his candidacy totally reeks of when Betsy McCaughey sought revenge against George Pataki (for booting her from the GOP ticket) by running third-party. She got 2%, and I imagine Cohen will net the same.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Nate's forecasts
I just went over to the New York Times and looked at Nate's forecasts and I even feel my analysis is a little too optimistic for the Democrats.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
NYTimes
ringing endorsement of anyone who ever served in the NY State Legislature:

In the Assembly, there are not enough real contests. And in New York, that means one thing: the Democratic Party has given some of Albany's worst legislators a free ride. Here's the only solution: vote against the incumbents.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Happy Labor Day Weekend!
Obama down 6 in gallup and Rasmussen from what I'm sure is an absolutely horrid sample from last night... Everyone's on vacation, except the old "Obama is a muslim" coots answering the phones.  That's going to probably cancel out any gains we made earlier in the week with the generic ballot... we simply can't catch a break!
KS-04: Republican primary loser considering third-party bid
http://stateofthestateks.com/2...

"A spokesperson for Wink Hartman confirmed Saturday the former Fourth District Republican candidate is considering re-entering the race for Congress. Hartman would fill the spot on the Libertarian ticket left open by David Moffett, who has dropped out of the race for health reasons."

Hartman self-funded his primary bid to the tune of $1.5 million, so he could definitely make some waves if he jumped into the race. And, of course, this would be great news for Raj Goyle.

Holy crap
That is AWESOME news for Goyle. From what I've seen, Hartman & Pompeo have a visceral dislike of each other. And if Hartman dumps in a bunch of money (well...more of it) to attack Pompeo and steal his votes, that can only help Goyle. Pompeo's already going to have trouble winning Schodorf's moderate voters, and with Hartman peeling support from the right and driving up Pompeo's negatives, Goyle could slip by as the guy that people don't hate nearly as much as the other two.  

Dude, that could turn Goyle from a longshot into a decent pickup opportunity. Hell yes for Libertarian Wink Hartman.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Hartman
I doubt he ends up being much of a factor after Pompeo lets everyone know he lives in FL.  
[ Parent ]
Kuster leads in NH-02
It's an internal poll though.

A Mellman Group poll of 400 likely Second District Democratic voters shows Kuster with 47 percent support, Swett with 24 percent, and 29 percent were undecided. The Mellman Group polled for John Kerry's campaign in the 2004 New Hampshire primary.  

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

kinda wondering if we have a chance here.
if not, it'd probably be better for swett to get the nomination to have her finally lose, just to get rid of her.  the district has a good sized D tilt, but it also goes whatever direction the wind blows and the republicans have the best candidate they could in the former congressman.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
It's
probably a lean R race with Kuster and a likely R with Swett.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I agree.
This is someone who shouldn't run for political office (Especially in NH-02) again

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Good
Finish this DLCer off once and for all.
[ Parent ]
Does
anyone know a site where you can find polling averages without a specific pollster? For example if I wanted to see what Obama's average approval rating was without any Rasmussen polls or NC Sen without any PPP polls.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
You can use the filter function on Pollster.com to remove specific pollsters
As well as specific methods. Open up a polling list, click tools, then click filter to see the list and you're set.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Thanks Bob nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
does anyone know
when the new electoral map for 2012 will be announced?  I want to play with the new map with each states new electoral votes.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
We won't know until the census is finished
According to Wikipedia: "In December 2010, the Census Bureau will deliver population information to the President for apportionment, and in March 2011 complete redistricting data will be delivered to states."
[ Parent ]
Another SurveyUSA whopper. Kentucky-Senate
Paul (R) - 55%
Conway (D) - 40%

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Paul gets almost 40% of the black vote in the crosstabs...
And they trimmed their registered sample down 40% to get the likely voter sample... 40%... really now?  
[ Parent ]
So
if Paul's getting almost 40% of the black vote....then I must be destined to find the Holy Grail. Success!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
It's amazing
They do this constantly, and they never get called on it by the "experts" like Nate Silver.
[ Parent ]
which should be a hint that maybe you all should stop
nit-picking every poll over their cross tabs.  I have never seen a poll this far out from the election that had AA voting like they will be come election day either it be PPP, Rasmussen, SUSA, Anzalone, etc.
[ Parent ]
I don't believe
that Paul is up by this margin, although Trey Grayson would be.  I think Paul is up 7-9 though.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I agree with this
And, as long as Paul remains gaffe-free, I think he can hold steady at a high single-digit lead.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
So did Rand Paul win the primary again?
Seriously, SUSA is making Rasmussen look good.  
[ Parent ]
If you read the article
even the Paul campaign wouldn't vouch for the poll.  

Republicans should hire Survey USA to do their internal polling, as its methodology consistently ends up with SIGNIFICANTLY better results for Republicans than their own internals in race after race.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Sorry No
Even Paul denies it (ie his internals probably show it closer) so I will deny it as well. I am not someone to bash polls just because they show bad results but I can't believe this one. Unless I see more polling to back this up it is just too far out there. This also makes me doubt there Yarmuth poll as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
DCCC going to do political triage...
Will cut off weak members to focus on a firewall strategy...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09...

I'm sad to see Pirello and Markey on the possible cut list... but, you gotta do what you gotta do.  I'm glad that the DCCC is at least a competent organization.  If anyone can pull this off, they can.  The DSCC... well, that's a different story altogether.

Senate's
a little easier. But it would be in our best interests to try to limit our loses to ND, IN, DE, and AR. Because 2012, 2014 the Republicans are going to have a plethora of senate seats to target.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I could see
2014 and 2016 turning out to be very similar to 2008 and 2010. 2014 (2008) is when Republicans (Democrats) get their long wanted supermajority, and the Democrats (Republicans) are declared dead. Then, in 2016, boosted by a huge playing field, Democrats regain, or come very close to regaining a majority b/c of the large number of Republicans in Dem leaning seats.  
[ Parent ]
Ironically
this class of senate seats up this year is cursed for Democrats. They haven't had a net gain of seats in this class since 1986. And this might be the first class of senate seats where Democrats don't hold a single seat in the south.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
A pretty frank assessment
I'm surprised OH-15 is on that list.  I thought Kilroy had a better shot than Perriello and Markey.
[ Parent ]
She's been given up for dead for a long time
given that she's in a rematch with the Republican she barely beat in 2008 with a third-party candidates siphoning off 9% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
Not Surprising
Kilroy's a bad candidate. And Perriello and Markey are in tough districts.

Of course, the real message is to other donors not to contribute to their campaigns. That's the only reason to list those names publicly.

[ Parent ]
RIP Mario Rubio
http://www.nationalreview.com/...
Marco Rubio's father has passed away at 83. Republican Senate candidates have had bad luck this year, with Jane Norton's father passing away a few months ago, Rob Portman's this week, and now Rubio's.  
RIP to all of them.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
RIP
We can all glean from Rubio's backstory that his father was an inspiring man. RIP
[ Parent ]
My scorecard on Dem-held House seats
Races where I'd be surprised to see Dems win (30): AR-01, AR-02, CO-04, IL-11, IN-08, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MS-01, ND-AL, NH-02, NY-24, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11, SD-AL, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, VA-02, VA-05, WA-03, WI-07.

Races where I'm not sure (16): AZ-01, AZ-05, CO-03, FL-02, FL-08, FL-24, IL-14, IN-09, IA-03, NV-03, NH-01, NM-02, SC-05, TX-23, VA-11, WI-08

Touted races where I expect Dems to win (31): AL-02, AZ-08, CA-11, CA-47, FL-22, GA-08, ID-01, IL-17, IN-02, KY-06, MA-10, MI-09, MO-04, NC-08, NJ-03, NM-01, NY-01, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-23, NC-11, OH-13, OH-18, OR-05, PA-10, PA-12, TN-04, VA-09, WA-02, WV-01

Safe: Everyone else.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

I don't get the pessimism about PA-8 on here

[ Parent ]
You've got a smart, capable, mainstream Republican candidate
who has fundraised well and has strong name recognition.  Murphy hasn't brightened my day with any internal polling rebutting Fitzpatrick's polling showing him in the lead.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Poll
A seven point lead in an internal means it's even at best.  The race should be, at worst, in the tossup category.  And being a bit of a retread may not help Fitzpatrick this year.
[ Parent ]
Well
I may change my mind if Murphy or an indy pollster shows me a better poll.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
My take
Having worked for Patrick Murphy, I can attest to the fact that the man is extremely personable, runs a hell of a campaign, and has a palpable base of loyalty in his district.
Mike Fitzpatrick won in 2004, a good Republican year, with all of 55.3% against a no-name Democrat originally selected as token opposition to Jim Greenwood before he announced his surprise, last-minute retirement.

IMHO: This is a critical firewall district. If we lose PA-08, we've lost the House. Period.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
"If we lose X seat, we've lost the House."
I don't take that linear view.  We'll lose some because they have good candidates.  We'll lose some because our candidate was bad.  We'll lose some just because of the partisan lean of the district.  And we'll lose some for reasons that we'll never quite understand.

I could imagine many scenarios where we keep the House and lose PA-08.  They have a top flight candidate here, and they have very few of those to go around.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
In most instances I would agree with you...
...But pretty much everything about this particular district and the two candidates running tells me otherwise. Bucks County, like the most of the rest of suburban Philadelphia, has been trending in the right direction for the past decade. The old-school moderate Republicans who have historically comprised a hefty chunk of the electorate here were, until very recently, abandoning the party in droves (see Specter, Arlen), and have very little reason to be galvanized by the hard-line knuckle-draggers currently setting the party agenda at the national level. Fitzpatrick, while a credible candidate with a decent electoral track record and a (not entirely legitimate) mainstream reputation, should not be looked at as a silver bullet for the Republicans here, especially when he's running against an energetic, heretofore popular guy like Murphy who has already beaten him once before (albeit in a much better year for Democrats).

Given all of this, the only reason I can see us losing PA-08 -- and I readily acknowledge it as a distinct possibility -- is a severe degradation in the national environment for Democrats. Such a degradation would almost certainly sink a wide array of other, even more vulnerable Democrats in similarly swing-ish districts (folks like Kilroy, Arcuri, Grayson, Schauer, and Dahlkemper, to name a few) before bringing down Murphy, IMO.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Well bear in mind that I have all of the
similar folks you named, except Grayson, losing as well.  I'm mostly only doubting whether Grayson will lose because he produced that weird internal and there is a Tea Party candidate.  Just waiting for more info.

But even with all those folks losing, Dems could narrowly keep the House.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Since we're getting down in the weeds
I could easily see us losing AZ-01, AZ-05, FL-24, IA-03, NV-03, and TX-23 before PA-08.  It seems to me that the circumstances in which Murphy would be defeated would probably also drag down (at least some of) the likes of Rick Larsen, Betty Sutton, Carol Shea-Porter, Bill Foster, Gabrielle Giffords, Suzanne Kosmas, and Leonard Boswell. Therefore, while I accede the possibility that Murphy could lose and the House still remain in Democratic control, it appears to me to be a remote one indeed.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Here are my distinctions on those
AZ-01 - I don't put stock in the Ayres McHenry polls because of the methodological flaws pointed out on SSP front page.  Waiting for a better poll.

AZ-05 - Same.

FL-24 - Batshit candidate.  No polling of which I am aware.

IA-03 - No polling since Zaun's baggage came out.

NV-03 - Mason-Dixon has showed Titus slightly ahead.

TX-23 - Canseco's poll is just about the same as Fitzpatrick's, and Rodriguez has not responded that I'm aware of.  But the polling in 2006 in this district was way, way off in favor of the Republican.  So this one is based on intuition on my part that that may happen again.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
And the others you mentioned
AZ-08 - Even Ayers McHenry poll was even.

IL-14 - Bigger cash edge for Foster, plus self-funding ability.

NH-01 - Latest poll shows Shea-Porter ahead.

OH-13 - Much bluer district.

WA-02 - Larsen more entrenched than Murphy.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Top Down Implosion in Pennsylvania
With the exception of Sutton, none of the other candidates you listed are in states where the potential of an implosion of an entire party is high.  At least part of the reason the Democrats did so well in Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2006 was a top down implosion.  The Republicans would not have lost PA-4 and PA-8 if it was not for an implosion.  PA-7 would have been far closer too and likely stated Republican if they would have done the right thing and forced Weldon out.  

The Democrats actually are very lucky in Pennsylvania.  The Republicans, in theory, could take 8 seats.  Now due to bad candidates for the Republicans, those loses will probably limited to 4.  

Furthermore, the Democrats should be happy that PA-13 did not open up as Schwartz contemplated running for higher office.  While a Democratic seat, the Republicans have someone who could make a play on such a seat if open and in a bad year with Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor.  In a 60 seat wave and open, PA-13 could have fallen too.  

Democrats in PA should be thankful things aren't worse.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Agree
It's very likely that if we lose this seat, we lose the House.
[ Parent ]
PA-08
I am sure you are going to receive a decent amount of flak over PA-08, but in your defense as practically the first person to call this district in play, I will offer the following reasons why it is in play and will probably flip:

1)  Fitzpatrick lost to Murphy by roughly 1500 votes in the worst year for Republicans in southeastern Pennsylvania ever, 2006.

2)  Murphy will not have any wind to his back for the first time ever.  The Democrats are in implosion mode in Pennsylvania will time running out to mitigate the harm.  

Corbett won this district in 2004 and 2008 against Democrats from the region.  Corbett will likely slam Onorato here.  Toomey is not a stranger to the area either.  

A substantial portion of his former House district bordered PA-08 and the northern half of PA-08 receives a lot of its media in terms of radio and print from the Lehigh Valley.

Lastly, the Republicans nominated Jim Cawley, a Bucks County Commissioner to run for Lt. Governor.

3)  Fitzpatrick is a likable center-right candidate.  No tea party freak show here to say the least.

4)  This district really resembles the areas of New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts were Republicans made substantial gains in 2009-2010.  Bringing in Chris Christie and Scott Brown to campaign would be a great idea to say the least for Fitzpatrick.

5)  This is still a Republican district on the local and state level.  80% of the state reps and state senators representing parts of this district are Republican.  A similar number of local governments are controlled by Republicans.

6)  Murphy has done nothing to differentiate himself from the President.  He fell in the same hole as Fitzpatrick fell in.

7)  The Democrats can lose PA-08 and still hold a slim majority.  Their performance in Pennsylvania is particularly bad and can be interpreted as a localized implosion more than anything else.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Thanks
I am not privy to information that leads me to believe we will win PA-08.  Plain and simple.  

Murphy is one of those guys who a lot of people like and want to believe is invincible.  He is well-liked (even Fitzpatrick's poll says he is), but he's not invincible.

You're right about the implosion at the top of the ticket.  Of the competitive PA districts, I think we'll get by in PA-04, PA-10, and PA-17 because of very weak Republican candidates, and PA-12 because Critz has run hard against the party and just won months ago.  I expect to lose the rest of them.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I by no means think Murphy is invincible
PA-08 is very much in play this year. It just perplexes me that you would put it ahead of districts that are very similar (IL-14, for example) and where there has been similarly scant polling information off of which to base any assumptions.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Sorry
that was oversimplified and unfair to you for me to put it that way.  

Difference between IL-14 and PA-08 is that Hultgren is way behind in fundraising and comes in with far less name recognition than Fitpatrick.  To me it's not a similar situation, although I suspect we could easily lose IL-14 as well.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
The Democrats are lucky
Considering the implosion occurring in Pennsylvania, the Democrats on paper could lose 8 seats, but because of bad Republican candidates, they will only likely lose 4.  Losing 8 seats in one state would likely seal the fate of the House awful early in the evening.

If the Republicans pick up these 4 seats, it would vindicate my skepticism of PVI at least in Pennsylvania as 9 seats would be held by the party opposite of its PVI score.

The Republicans would hold 5 seats with a D PVI:  PA-6, PA-7, PA-8, PA-11, and PA-15.  These districts have a combined PVI of D+3.

The Democrats would hold 4 seats with a R PVI:  PA-4, PA-10, PA-12, and PA-17.  These districts have a combined PVI of R+5

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I disagree that you should be all that skeptical of PVI
Right now Democrats control 69 seats that are at least R+1 and Republicans control 9 seats that are at least D+1. Of the Democratic-held seats, 18 of those are either R+1 or R+2  (or about 26%), 27 of them are less than R+5 (R+4 to R+1) (about 39% of the Republican PVI Democratic districts), and 54 of them are less than R+10 (R+9 to R+1) (about 78% of all hostile districts). Plus, you have to remember that this is in the context of a country where a PVI of R+0 is roughly 51% Democratic 48% Republican (which means that the R+1 and R+2 Districts right now are actually either even or have a slight Democratic tilt as of the last presidential election).

Yeah, it's an imperfect measure (states like Pennsylvania and West Virginia can confound it) in time, I imagine that in the next 10 years or so you're going to start seeing a lot more conformity to PVI for these areas.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
surprise
I wouldn't be surprised to see Pomeroy, Sandlin, or Edwards hold their seats, and in that district that Obey won over and over again I think Lassa is better than Duffy at least on paper.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Same opinion on WI-7
Duffy is a non-partisan elected official from one of the most Democratic counties in the state.  Lassa is a partisan elected official from the more Republican part of the district.  She should get a bigger bump from being able to cross-party lines and carry the seat.

This is a district that I think would appreciate more of an old-school labor flair that Lassa seems to have moreso than Duffy.

[ Parent ]
My scorecard on Republican-held House seats
Races where I expect Dems to win (4): DE-AL, HI-01, IL-10, LA-02

Races where I'm not sure (2): FL-12, FL-25

Touted races where I expect Republicans to win (3): AL-05, CA-03, PA-15

Safe: Everyone else.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

FL-12 isn't going anywhere
Lori Edwards has been outraised almost 3-1 by Dennis Ross.
[ Parent ]
I know
but the reason I can't write it off is that Polk County Commissioner Randy Wilkinson is running on the Tea Party line.  It's the only place in the country of which I'm aware where an elected official is running on the Tea Party line.  And it's a well-known elected official.  According to an Edwards internal poll (showing her up 3 only a month ago), Wilkinson has significantly higher name recognition than Ross.  Edwards also has strong name recognition as Polk County Supervisor of Elections, so her cash deficit is less important.

Not saying it's going to flip.  I just don't know how this situation with Wilkinson will play out.  And by the way, Ross could have convinced me that he's going to win by putting out a credible internal showing him up.  To my knowledge, he hasn't in spite of two leaked internals by Edwards showing her leading.  Makes me think his internal polling is not so hot either.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
What about AZ-3?
Ben Quayle is probably the weakest candidate they could have picked.
[ Parent ]
Just see that as
too red for this cycle.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Maybe
if Gordon would have ran.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Dems would need a real ringer, high profile candidate like that to beat even a weak Republican in an R+9 district.  Hulburd is well-funded but not high profile.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
NY-AG: Times Union endorses Schneiderman
http://blog.timesunion.com/opi...

Between this and the NY Times endorsement, I'm getting more and more weary of this race. Schneiderman is probably the one Democrat in this field that I simply couldn't vote for, and I think the hit-and-run incident will prove politically-toxic for him vs. Donovan.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Agreed
While Schneiderman's hit and run incident and ties the toxic NYS Senate are all really bad,I think his promising to give Al Sharpton an annex to the Attorney General's office is a lot worst.

I mean those anti-Schneiderman ads practically write themselves. I know a lot of New Yorker will be turned off at the thought of Al Sharpton having an annex to the Attorney General's office.



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[ Parent ]
Republicans got a good candidate in Donovan
If Donovan wins, the Republicans might have something of a beachhead to seriously contest other statewide offices in the future.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I dont Donovan is interested in other offices.
I really think Donovan is the kind of guy who prefers to be in these law enforcement and legal type of elected position.

Donovan could have had the GOP nomination for Congress in 2008 after Vito Fosella's "problems". There was heavy pressure on him from the SI GOP to run and he could have done so while remaining the Staten Island District Attorney (so he wouldnt have to give up day job to run). Donovan turned the

m down flat. From what I recalled he basically said he no interest in being a congressman and would prefer to remain in law enforcement type of role.

If Donovan was only looking to move up he would have just run for congress.

So I really dont think Donovan i looking at the AG's job as a stepping stone. For him its most likely an endgame.

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[ Parent ]
Perhaps Donovan might be interested
in a spot in the AG office or as a federal judge in a future GOP administration, regardless of whether he wins or loses here.  Although, I read that he is pro-choice, which could complicate matters.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
To me, hit-and-run accidents are an act of moral turpitude
I realize my own views aren't that important, but I have to wonder whether that kind of incident is serious enough for many New Yorkers to elect a Republican for a statewide office, should Schneiderman win nomination. I know that it's the kind of thing that would be very likely to cause me to vote for the Republican, unless something horrible should come out about him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I have to imagine it'd be a legit toss-up
On one hand, yes, Schneiderman has ample baggage, and he's probably even too liberal for NY statewide, but on the flip side, Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand are poised to trumph with 60%+ of the vote - will enough conservaDems and moderate Independents bolt for Donovan? I think many would, and it'd be awfully tight. Think...

Democrat - 46%
GOP - 28%
Independent - 26%

Donovan - 17/97/58 = 50%
Schneiderman - 83/3/42 = 50%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Definitely
This is beyond a legal issue for me.  It is very much a character issue.  

Additionally, New York is very much a tough on crime state.  His stances make Cuomo and Spitzer look like right wing extremists.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Spitzer and Cuomo are actually
pretty tough on crime for a Dem, so is Chuck Schumer actually.  I think a lot of people have forgotten what a real soft-on-crime politician is since it has been a while since that stance has been (thankfully) discredited nationally.
However, I don't think Schneiderman will be nominated or elected if he is nominated.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Depends for me
If this was on the street then I would not vote for him. If it was an accident were someone could have been injured then I would vocally support his Republican opponent without a doubt. I mean when I was younger someone hit the side of my moms car and pushed us in front of a semi, we were lucky to live. However if it was in a parking lot I would probably still vote for him. I mean I would think about it if there was actual damage to the car but let me use something that happened to me as an example. I backed into a jeep at a parking lot, I was in a hurry and there was no damage on the jeep. My friend wanted me to just go, a passer by said it didn't matter. I was starting to write a note but the jeep owner came out and said it wasn't a big deal, don't worry about it. I would have left a note but I could have easily not left one and would not blame someone for not leaving one. Now if there was damage then yeah that is wrong but  if it is not the worst thing in the world. I would, without a doubt, leave a note but I don't think I would deny my vote if someone else did it. Just my view. His service in the state senate makes me much more questionable of him more so then if his hit and run was not serious.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I
googled it and it is not that big of deal to me. It was in a parking lot and a staffer was driving and he said he did not even realize it had been damaged. He should have gotten out but if he was in a hurry and did not think it was damaged then I can understand. His hit and run would not stop me voting for him. Now his service in the state senate.......  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Link
http://dnainfo.com/20100713/ch...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
IMHO it speaks to character
The right thing to do is to leave a note. To me its another example of the arrogance and hypocrisy of people running Albany.

Obviously the accident was bad enough for a good samaritan cyclist to see it, take down his licence plate and wait for owner of the hit car to arrived.

Schniederman just didnt care about the peon his car hit. He was busy. He's an important person so he just took off figuring he can get away with it.

It's that hypocritical attitude coming from a candidate running of a platform of social justice that comes out so wrong and could turn off voters in the general election.

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[ Parent ]
Ohio poll
It is weird that of the 3 polls this week, Ras was the best for the Dems.

http://www.dispatchpolitics.co...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

Well, that's depressing
These polls are ruining my weekend.
[ Parent ]
Sherrod Brown
maybe the only Democrat elected statewide in Ohio in 2011.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Let's hope not, but
... if you're only going to have one, what a good one to have!  I just picked him as one of my "ideal senators".
[ Parent ]
Oh Rasmussen
I dont know what to believe anymore from you.
[ Parent ]
We're getting closer to the election
Other pollsters are making the switch from RVs to LVs (most notably PPP) and Rasmussen may be tinkering with their methodology to reduce their Republican house effect. Their polling has been a lot closer to the mainstream as of late, including AK-Sen and OH-Sen this week. Remember, despite this year Rasmussen has a good history as a pollster, and I would not be surprised if their results from here on in are fairly accurate snapshots.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I think Portman has this in the bag
and Kasich is the favorite, although unlike Fisher, I wouldn't pronounce Strickland dead quite yet.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Agree nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Well, the good news....
...is that Secretary of State and AG is still a tossup, even with horrible governor and Senate toplines... that's a bit of a surprise...

Nate Silver says that governor's races tend to tighten up at the end, so that will help downballot significantly.

[ Parent ]
Todd Young over inflates resume.
http://www.courier-journal.com...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Pretty lame
Of all the hit pieces that newspapers have dug up on candidates this year, this one is surely the weakest. A guy who accurately lists his job but doesn't also give the 10 degrees of nuance that some opinion writer wants? Stop the presses!

I think these kinds of things are interesting in some cases (the Rand Paul ophthalmology board thing was interesting and perhaps telling about Paul's character, if not terribly damning), but I think newspapers are trying to turn anything and everything into a big story this year. They should stick to real bombshells

[ Parent ]
I Agree
I read that column and came out with a much worse impression of the writer than Todd Young.

I don't "believe" that's his job. Even though it's "technically true" that what he claims is his job is his job. Umm, that's kind of the whole ballgame.  

[ Parent ]
It's
not a big deal and the most that's going to come out of it is a fundraising email from Hill but in defense of the article Young really does talk about his service as a deputy prosecutor a lot and really does not mention what he actually did. Honestly before today I thought that was his full job. But all said in done that small discrepancy would not stop me voting for a candidate and it will not hurt Young. Although it surprised me slightly that the author of the article tends to lean to the right from everything I have read from her.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Here's a thought
We've all been working on CA and their district lines and having quite a bit of fun with it.  If Brown wins, I imagine there is going to be immense amount of pressure on the CA Dems from the national party to really draw some beautiful lines for us.  With myself thinking more and more that we'll lose the House, I think that makes it more and more likely of getting some gerrymandered awesome in CA.

(This has been mentioned before in terms of Pelosi pushing for it so she can keep her Speakership but I think it could become much more of a chorus with national dems coming down on CA to get us another four Congresscritters.)

Hell, the Human Rights Campaign
should get on board to try get some a district made for Pougnet whose running against Bono-Mack.  Could very easily draw a district in the Inland Empire to get another mo elected.
[ Parent ]
Actually, there is a seat that should elect a "mo"
It's held by a very hetero grandmother: Nancy Pelosi. :)  

...I don't see too many gays complaining about her. And if HRC was that competent and powerful, DADT would dead and ENDA would be a done deal. And as I must repeat whenever I talk about HRC, Joe Solmonese should be fired. Immediately.

Besides, it's not "very easy" to draw such a district. Aside from Palm Springs & Cathedral City, there just aren't enough gay-heavy areas in the region to make up a full congressional district. We could easily destroy Ms. Mary Mack, or at least make her move, but ensuring a 'mo gets elected is tough. I was trying to do it in LA where there are even more gays, and it's still tough. The LGBT community is just too well-integrated, apparently.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Well maybe HRC will get a chance
If the Dems lose the House, maybe Pelosi will retire.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
If Pelosi does retire
then we have the awesome Mark Leno who would make a great candidate and maybe the first gay Senator!

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Uh, Larry Craig?
Just kidding, I knew what you meant!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Mark Leno
 Would be a great Senator. He is my State Senator right now and he is just fantastic and he works really hard. I hope he replaces Pelosi and if Boxer decides to retire in 2016, Leno would be a great replacement. I am worried he might be a bit too liberal but he will definitely motivate Democrats to vote.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Any opinion on the DCCC's use of triage?
Also, on Jerry Brown's facebook page, he says they will make a big announcement next week.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
CT-Sen: Obama will stump for Blumenthal
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

This one is looking more and more "toss-up"-y to me.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

No, it's just part of the strategy to raise money and whatnot.
CT is lean Dem at worst.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I have
this race at Lean Democratic right now. I have a feeling this race is going to become a tossup eventually since Blumenthal isn't really hitting McMahon hard over what happened at WWE and the fact she can out sleeze Blumenthal with her millions. But as some of us have speculated, the governor's race at this point might save Blumenthal from himself.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Blumenthal is failing
Blumenthal should be busy strangling McMahon's candidacy in the crib, but he is going to let her run a zillion dollars worth of ads and make it competitive.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
How exactly do you propose he do that?
Short of stealing her checkbook, he can't exactly stop her from running ads, nor does he have the money to put up an equal amount.
[ Parent ]
Yes he does!
Blumenthal's net worth is north of $100 million. He needs to throw some of his own scratch into the race.

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[ Parent ]
He does not need to spend his own money
Beating McMahon is simple.  Her disgusting industry, which professional wrestling is, creates great material to attack her left and right.  All Blumenthal has to do is throw one negative ad for every three positive ads she runs and it makes her look like a weirdo.

In fact seeing its Connecticut and professional wrestling is such a low brow affair, Blumenthal should make her look like a low brow simpleton that thinks its fine to degrade women, minorities, and break the law.

If I lived in Connecticut I would vote for Blumenthal even though I am pretty much not in ideological agreement with him 90% of the time because McMahon's industry.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
When is the last time
Connecticut elected a statewide official who's as far to the right as McMahon is? Can someone help me on this? I think it's been quite some time, because Connecticut has historically been a state with mostly moderate-to-liberal Republicans, some independents (including Lowell Weicker, who went from Republican to Independent after being defeated from the right by Lieberman), and Democrats. Rowland may not have been that moderate in the House, but he was a moderate Governor, before losing his job over corruption. I really doubt McMahon can win a statewide election in CT, no matter how much money she spends.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
What makes McMahon so right-wing?
I'm not saying she's not (she's no Jodi Rell), but I see her more of a John Rowland type.
[ Parent ]
Hasn't she been a lot more strident?
You tell me. I'm here in New York, which is close to CT but not actually in the state. My impression is that Rowland ran campaigns based on moderation and competence. That's not the impression I've gotten of McMahon's campaign.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I'm assuming McMahon is to the left of most on social issues
and I am sure most votes assume that too because of her WWE connections.

but she is definitely to the right on fiscal issues (which is what's driving the Tea Party).

Its probably a good cycle for a candidate like McMahon. If cultural issues were driving the GOP this year than there is no way the right would have gotten behind her.

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[ Parent ]
Yeah, McMahon strikes me as a Brown/Voinovich-type RINO
In terms of Connecticut Republicans, if I'm not mistaken, John Rowland was a pretty darn conservative governor, at least from a fiscal stance. McMahon's definitely more conservative than Lieberman, but I'd only peg her a few notches to the right of Rell.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Connecticut would elect a fiscally conservative RINO-type
There's no recent precedent, but there is a LOT of money in the state and while most voters are socially liberal, there's probably not as much identification with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party here as there is in MA and RI, just because these are the people that are going to get hit by the millionaire's taxes, etc. By no means is McMahon favored in this race, but in this environment you'd have to think that Connecticut would at least entertain the candidacy of her type of Republicanism. If only she made her money from a different line of work...

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Voinovich has been moderate over the course of his career
but has voted pretty consistently to filibuster Democratic bills in the last two years. I do believe that's an exception to his career, though.

Thanks for the discussion, everyone.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
This is the one race
that could break for us near the end, I'd still bet on the Dem though.   My view in general is that I expect some natural tightening in the enthusiasm gap as Dems who are not that enthused about voting will turnout at the end.  While that will not prevent a GOP landslide and a House takeover, it will result in some Dems who are trailing in the polls today winning.    

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
If its for fundraising purposes the DSCC should be a little upset about this
I mean McMahon's millions are forcing the Dems to spend money in CT when they desperately need to spend resources elsewhere.

The kicker in all this is that Blumenthal's family net worth is in excess of $100 million and he refuses to self finance or even pump some of his own money into the campaign.

To put how rich Blumenthal is in perspective Carly Fiorina is worth about $30 million and Carl Palidino (who is pumping $10 million of his own money into his quixotic gubernatorial bid in NY) is worth about $150 million.

I'm not saying all rich guys have to pay for there own campaigns and Blumenthal has every right not to. But come on! Put your money where your mouth is.

He's getting out spent 5-1 by McMahon. Would throwing a little of your own spare change into the race to keep up with McMahon kill you?


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[ Parent ]
Disgusting
Nobody is asking Blumenthal to go Meg Whitman and buy every piece of airtime on radio and TV from now until November.  $5 million would be a nice infusion to throw McMahon to the electoral wolves.  The best way to prevent her from becoming a threat is to attack her for disgusting profession.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Maybe that'll be his grand finale
Do it at the end so that losing the donors who now say, fund your own campaign, wont matter so much.
[ Parent ]
Self funders rarely win...
It's better to raise money and have more voters put their "skin in the game".  I think it's a good thing for the president to be there, regardless.

I'm getting sick of the concern trolling on blumenthal, saying he's doing nothing.  That's BS.  He's out on the campaign trail every day doing the retail politics that beat TV ads every day.

There has been NO evidence of him coming close to losing... none... yet, everyone is all panicky about this one.  Although the DSCC is rather incompetent under Menendez, they know well enough not to let Blumthal tank if it starts looking that way.

BTW, you can't "put McMahon's candidacy away" that easily, when she will be spending oodles of $$$ on the race.  

[ Parent ]
What does everyone think about OH-Sen?
This is one race I've been getting down about especially, because this should be ours to lose with Portman having a past of destroying Ohio's economy.  But 2010 may fuck us good here and Im wondering how many people here think this race is a goner.

Fischer needs to run as the outsider and paint Portman as a douchebag DC insider and make him a hypocrite for being the Budget Director and running deficits while saying they hurt the economy.  Fischer can easily set up Portman to answer in a way that he can make this response.

The Brunner factor just makes the whole race hurt that much more.  Waste of the start of a fabulous career for her and a wasted piggybank for a candidate already facing a crap year in a swing-state.  Governors making better WH material anyway honey!

Since you asked
you won't like my answer.  

I think Portman has this in the bag, i.e. this race is over.  Further, I'm not sure that Fisher could have done anything differently to have won this year, this was just a GOP year and Portman is a strong candidate and in 2010, that's that.  It would have been different in another year.


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Fisher could have done a lot differently...
...but, he's a perennial loser who will lose this time.  He counted on Strickland's coattails to propel him over the top and now that's gone.

A better candidate would have hit Portman's trade stances that destroyed Ohio's economy and hit them hard.  Fisher can barely string a sentence together.

Portman was a very weak candidate except for the monetary advantage, but even that wasn't infinite (like Meg Whitman)... He could have and should have been easily beaten.  Even Brunner with zero money would have done at least 5 points better than Fisher has even with his war chest.

[ Parent ]
Portman is not a weak candidate
he is actually a pretty strong one.  He is a good fundraiser and campaigner, and is pretty good as setting the message.  In a purple state like Ohio in a GOP year like 2010, that means victory.  Portman would have easily parried attacks on his trade record this year by tying Fisher with Obama's unpopular economic policies.

This is one of the negatives of staying in an ideological bubble, we thought the same about Sherrod Brown in 2006, that we could paint him as a liberal extremist, and look how it turned out.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
^^ This (nm)

[ Parent ]
Strong candidate indeed
Being tied to Bush is no worse than being tied to Obama at this point.  That PPP poll that asked people whom they prefer in Ohio, Bush or Obama, should be a warning that campaigning against Bush and with Obama isn't going to work.  Now if you can campaign against both, that might be a great combination.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I will also say
that Fisher is not a "bad" candidate many here suggest.  He is not a great one, but he is still a decent get for the Dems.  It is just running against Portman in a GOP year is awfully tough.  

I'm not even sure that a "great" Dem candidate would have won, look at what is happening in Missouri, where Robin Carnahan, who is probably about as good as a candidate as you can find, is trailing against Roy Blunt, who is so-so at best.    

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Missouri is more
Republican than Ohio so somebody like Tim Ryan would likely be doing better. I bet he could have raised more money too.
[ Parent ]
Tim Ryan would be doing better
but Portman would still beat him by at least 5 (Fisher is headed to a 10+% loss, IMO).  

I can't think of a single Dem candidate (maybe bringing back John Glenn in his prime) who would beat Portman this year.  I really think that the Dems and left really underestimated how good of a candidate Portman is.  


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
If Hillary were to run
she'd probably win OH and be able to help Ryan take out Portman in 2016.
[ Parent ]
(all things being equal)

[ Parent ]
Yeah, this one's looking very rough to me
GOP - 35%
Democrat - 34%
Independent - 31%

Fisher - 5/83/44 = 44%
Portman - 95/17/56 = 56%

For one, I expect Dem turn-out here will be way down from '08 - two years ago, the electorate was 39/31/30 Dem/GOP/Indie. Credit this to 1) the general lack of excitement behind Fisher, 2) Strickland's crummy approval, and 3) the failure of Brunner to get enthusiastically behind Fisher.

Portman, for his part, does have some baggage, no doubt. The problem is, he also has money, and that's one area Fisher's particularly lacking in. Plus, while Fisher can hit Portman for his Bush ties, that recent PPP poll on "Bush vs. Obama" is probably a testament to how Bush bashing will play here in 2010.

I think both OH-Sen and OH-Gov are Lean R right now.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I don't see 17% of Dems going for Portman
(10% went for McCain in 2008), but I see 60+% of independents going for Portman , so the final result is about the same.  I'd say

GOP - 35%
Democrat - 35%
Independent - 30%

Fisher - 5/88/39 = 44%
Portman - 95/12/61 = 56%  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Sorry if im sounding repetitive
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

For sure, Brown is gonna start airing ads "up and down the state" tomorrow!! I just REALLY hope he wins, i don't care if he's not progressive enough, just send a message that money can't buy you elections (save for Bloomberg in NYC) and send eMeg back into a electronic cave.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

Jerry Brown's
ads need to stick out. He can't outspend Whitman, but he can try to produce some Hardball material ads. (Maybe he hired the crew who did John Adler and Joe Sestak's ads.) Uh...thinking about that wretched woman makes me sick to my stomach. I've even seen her web ads on Dkos.


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Not progressive enough?
My impression of Jerry Brown was that he was really far to the left, and he has moderated that image only recently.  And even then he is still pretty liberal, for example his refusal to defend Prop 8.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Brown has always been hard to categorize.
Brown can be liberal on environmental, consumer, and social issues, but he's been consistently frugal on fiscal issues. We got into the Prop 13 problem all those years ago because he was hoarding such a big surplus for the state.

He's very intelligent, an original, who thinks for himself--which can be annoying but also admirable. I wouldn't say that he is "really far to the left" at all. I would say he can be all over the map, but if you think of him generally as a fiscal moderate and social liberal, that would probably be as close as you can get, and that's been true of him all of his political career.

He's promising now to work with Republicans, which sounds terrible to me, but since he is so smart and creative, perhaps he can find a way to pull it off. If elected, he will be one of the most interesting governors around.

[ Parent ]
Disagree
In many ways Brown was the original New Democrat.  And he embraced Prop 13 after it passed, and a flat tax in 1992.  Only on the environment and labor has he been fairly progressive.
[ Parent ]
LA-Sen
I don't suppose this would make any difference?

http://www.wdsu.com/r/24893077...

Jindal refuses to endorse Vitter

Does it matter?
This means Vitter might only get 85% of the primary vote over 88% of the primary vote.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
The primary is over...

[ Parent ]
Primaries over


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Castle
is up "20 points" in internal GOP polling.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Castle will be fine
The parallels to Alaska only extend so far.

Castle is a 40-year elected official who wins by ~60% margins in a blue state; Murkowski essentially won her seat via nepotism and was only narrowly re-elected in a red state. Miller is very right-wing but also articulate and a Yale Law grad; O'Donnell is a financially troubled perennial candidate who graduated from college over the summer.

Plus, Murkowski seemed blissfully unaware of the threat, whereas Castle is going to eviscerate O'Donnell on TV soon. And he has AMPLE material to do so.

She'll get some angry tea-partier votes, but the mainstream Delaware GOP won't be fooled into nominating such a loser.



20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
Only 20 points?
I expected something like 60, if in GOP internals he is only up 20 he is in bad shape
[ Parent ]
Only 20 points?
I expected something like 60, if in GOP internals he is only up 20 he is in bad shape
[ Parent ]
It said "nearly 20 points"
Which is pretty piss poor if you ask me. He more than likely wins anyway but Murkowski had big polling leads too.
[ Parent ]
And SurveyUSA WA-8 Poll Results
Reichert (R) - 54%
Delbene (D) - 41%

http://www.king5.com/community...

Finally
They have believable numbers.
[ Parent ]
And
SSP theater presents to you Jerry Brown's first ad. If you watch closely you'll notice Jerry Brown is trying to position himself as a centrist in this race instead of a full on liberal. Which is smart, since this race is going to be won by who can best appeal to independents and soft/conservative Democrats.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Rasmussen's
generic ballot shows Republican +12.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Which means
Gallup will go the other way.
[ Parent ]
Things started looking better last week
but I suspect the release of the jobs numbers on Friday hurt the Dems.  They were actually decent numbers as compared to expectations, but I suspect all the voting public saw was still more job losses.

Obama numbers in Gallup and Rasmussen have both fallen significantly in the past few days, and now this bad indicator from Rasmussen.  Or it could all be bullshit.  But it makes sense to me that the jobs numbers hurt.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Labor Day weekend
Quite obvious looking at Rasmussen.
[ Parent ]
Things started looking better last week
but I suspect the release of the jobs numbers on Friday hurt the Dems.  They were actually decent numbers as compared to expectations, but I suspect all the voting public saw was still more job losses.

Obama numbers in Gallup and Rasmussen have both fallen significantly in the past few days, and now this bad indicator from Rasmussen.  Or it could all be bullshit.  But it makes sense to me that the jobs numbers hurt.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
They both show fluctuation from week to week. And remember, Gallup is an average of the previous week anyway.
[ Parent ]
Well, at this point I thought that
we'd be gaining something like 200,000 jobs every month.

And we're still losing jobs. I tend to blame this summer's Greek economic crisis/European debt implosion for that.

But regardless of that, I just don't see how Democrats can keep the House with those numbers.

To be honest, I've been looking at forecasts of 2012 unemployment rates - and they're pretty bad. Something like 8% unemployment.

Now, I'm fairly optimistic about Obama's re-election chances. A lot of the excitement and economic issues that are hurting Democrats today probably won't be there in 2012.

But if unemployment is still above 8% come 2012, it's going to be a tough, tough re-election campaign.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
Congresscritters without College Degrees
This came up the other day in a different thread and I couldn't let it go.  So I tracked it down by hand, wasting what surely would have otherwise been a valuable time in my life.  There is 1 senator and 27 House members.  Dems lead 1-0 in the Senate and Republicans lead 16-10 in the House, with Independent Gregorio Sablan of the Northern Mariana rounding out the field.  Anyway, here are the graduates of the school of hard knocks serving in Congress:

SENATE: Mark Begich (D-AK)

HOUSE: Trent Franks (R-AZ), Elton Gallegly (R-CA), Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Gary Miller (R-CA), Brian Bilbray (R-CA), Bill Young (R-FL), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA), Phil Hare (D-IL), Dan Burton (R-IN), Tom Latham (R-IA), Steve King (R-IA), Rodney Alexander (R-LA), Mike Michaud (D-ME), Candice Miller (R-MI), Harry Teague (D-NM), Gregorio Sablan (I-NMI), Yvette Clarke (D-NY), Jose Serrano (D-NY), John Hall (D-NY), Sue Myrick (R-NC), Bob Brady (D-PA), Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), Henry Brown (R-SC), Zach Wamp (R-TN), Solomon Ortiz (D-TX), Doc Hastings (R-WA)

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Myrick and Hall are the biggest surprises for me
Most of the rest represent either inner-city, rural, or other blue-collar type districts where a relatively low percentage of voters hold degrees. But both NC-09 and NY-19 are wealthy, suburban, and well-educated areas. Hall has a pretty good excuse at least.

I know Jodi Rell never graduated from college; are there any other governors?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Hall isn't that surprising
a lot of popular musicians don't have college degrees, since  their careers tend to take off at early ages.
[ Parent ]
Interesting path for Hall
He actually attended Notre Dame for a year and then Loyola (MD) for a year and then quit in 1966 to pursue music but long before he made a big splash.  He did not found Orleans until 1972, but apparently worked as a session guitarist for some big-name artists (Janis Joplin, Crosby, Stills & Nash, Bonnie Raitt) in the interim.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Governors without degrees
a quick run through Wikipedia and I came up with only two: Jodi Rell (attended Old Dominion University in Norfolk, never graduated) and Gary Herbert (attended BYU, never graduated). Jan Brewer went to Glendale Community College, so she's in the middle with an associate's degree.

A couple other points of interest: Brian Schweitzer surely has the most specialized education, with a bachelor's degree in international agronomy and a master's in soil science. Arnold Schwarzenegger earned a degree through a correspondence course with the University of Wisconsin - Superior. Bev Perdue and Ted Strickland have completed the most post-secondary education; Perdue has a bachelor's, M.Ed., and D.Ed., while Strickland has four degrees, including a Ph.D. in psychology and a master of divinity.

[ Parent ]
I
was told from someone who went to school with him that my former rep Mike Sodrel barely passed High School. He obviously does not have a college degree. I find it is surprising that you can hold serious political office without a diploma. Even Alvin Greene has a bachelors in poli sci.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
i don't know
that seems a bit elitist.  one, only 24.4% of the US has a Bachelors or higher as of 2000. 1.  therefore, those without degrees need representation too.  second of all, it assumes that a college degree, regardless of its affiliation, automatically makes a person better prepared to govern, or create public policy.  I find it unlikely someone with a degree in pottery is any more qualified than someone without a degree but similar experience.  third, as a poli sci grad student, i'm not even sure if we're all that qualified to be policy makers.  

1 http://quickfacts.census.gov/q...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
As a poli sci grad
I wholeheartedly concur with point #3.
[ Parent ]
Kanjorski graduated from college
Kanjorksi graduated from college and law school.  You are confusing him with Brady in PA-1.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
CQ Politics in America
says he didn't, but you're right and CQ Politics in America is wrong as far as I can tell.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
How long
After Nov. 2 should we be seeing reports of retirements, people considering 2012 races, and pres exploratory committees? I know Martinez announced his retirement in Dec. 2008, was that early, or is that typical?
I wonder if early
GOP retirements back then give people pause this time. Gregg and Voinovich may not have called it quits had they known what would happen.
[ Parent ]
they might have
retiring in honor is better than being teabagged.  sure moderates are running in most of the races, but only because the recruits sucked up resources too quickly to give the tea party a chance.  if voinovich, or blunt, or gregg (or is it judd?  he has a last name for a first name and a first name for a last name) they'd probably be primaried.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Voinovich
Probably would have. I doubt Gregg would have, and I doubt Bond would have.  
[ Parent ]
Gregg only retired because of the SoC flap
If he had never been offered the position, I bet he would have run again and had his way with Hodes. But the flip-flop on his part looked terrible, especially since he did it at a time when Obama was incredibly popular and the Republican brand was not.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Anyone else think Ken Blackwell would've tea-bagged Voinovich?
Doubt Gregg would've faced a substantive challenge, though - Lamontagne is about as conservative as it gets for NH Republicans.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Blackwell is a joke....
He would have garnered 10% of the vote if that in a primary.

Now, someone like Kasich?  Yeah, Voinovich could have easily lost a primary against a guy like that.

[ Parent ]
discussion/trivia question
how many congresscritters, governors or senators, sitting, or recently vacated, were first judges?  of all the establishment methods of attaining elective office, judge seems to be a relatively rare one.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I got one
Ted Poe, TX-2. only one that comes to mind though.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Alcee Hastings nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He was impeached
But it still counts! I'm sure there is atleast one gov who was one.  
[ Parent ]
Found one
Ted Kulongoski was on the Oregon Supreme Court before he ran for Governor.
[ Parent ]
Several
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

Robert Aderholt, Steve Rothman, Paul Kanjorski, Jimmy Duncan, Louie Gohmert, Charlie Gonzalez, John Carter, and the two mentioned above.

[ Parent ]
Rothman was a mayor first
In Englewood, though, which is in the district but not the town where he currently lives.

Fun SSP activity: Based on the map below, guess where the congressman lives!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

(Winner gets a point. (5 points = I send you a delicious treat. Provided you have a USA mailing address.))

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Too easy to cheat
also, as a (temporary) expat, I object to the last stipulation. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Honor, man.
I am relying on SSP's collective sense of honor not lo look...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
There's also...
Lloyd Doggett in Austin, TX, who was on the Texas Supreme Court.
[ Parent ]
Senate Cattle Call
Its been a while.  
LA-02: Cao's race to lose?
On a New Orleans news station, their political analyst said that it is "Cao's race to lose". I wonder if everyone is believing that poll that he put out, or seeing some other polling? I know Cook recently moved this to toss-up, so maybe he saw some polling too?  
Why
would Cook move the race to toss-up. I don't know, maybe there's some skeletons in Cedric Richmond's closet that Cao could exploit. But Richmond's the favorite right now.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Cook likes to give incumbents deference...
...and in a GOP favored year, he's giving some deference....

It will be interesting what he says in a couple of weeks... The DCCC will be polling extensively the next few weeks, and I suspect numbers will leak to Charlie.  Right now, it's the GOP that's polling all over the place, flooding the zone with  more favorable data.

[ Parent ]
The only reasons
I can think of is he has seen some internal polling from both sides (Richmond has spent a lot of money on polling, but has never released any to refute Cao's poll) or he has talked to local observers, many of whom are saying Cao is the favorite. Richmond has skeletons, but whether or not they will have any affect, IDK.  
[ Parent ]
Cook
As we all know, Cook rarely throws an incumbent overboard so it was a shocker to see him move Cao to tossup after being thrown overboard.

It boils down to either:

1) Polling.
2) Skeletons in Richmond's closet.
3) The wave mentality.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
The fact
that Richmond has spent a lot of money on polling, and the fact that Cao has good constituent services (or at least from what I've heard) leads me to believe it is a tossup.

I think all the white Democrats will vote for him too.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
White Democrats
Why do you think they'll all vote for Cao? Does he accurately represent their views of issues, or are you implying that they'd rather vote for an Asian than a black, or both?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Thats his base
They are the more moderate voters, and Richmond is ignoring them. Richmond is going after the black vote only. Cao will get some black support, some former black Democratic elected officials are helping him with that. He has to win big among white Dems though, and he probably will.  
[ Parent ]
It sounds foolish
for Richmond to ignore white voters.

I'm also a bit surprised to hear that some former black Democratic elected officials are helping Cao. Is that because they agree with his positions on social issues like abortion and care about those more than they care about his record on votes for Federal money and programs for poor people (in other words, their social conservatism trumps what I presume would be their relative economic liberalism)? (By the way, I hope that question doesn't sound antagonistic; I don't mean it to sound that way.)

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
A racially polarized electorate only helps Richmond
On election day, the electorate will easily be majority-black (somewhere between 52%-55% of the vote) while the white vote will probably be something like 40%-45% of the vote.

Assume these racial numbers:

Black 50%
White 45%
Other 5%

Black/White/Other

Cao: 15/95/50
Richmond: 85/5/50

Cao: 53%
Richmond: 47%

Under these circumstances, Cao wins by 6 (a decent margin), but if the split is more like this (with the same racial turnout):

Cao: 10/90/50
Richmond: 90/10/50

Cao: 48%
Richmond: 52%

Now let's assume that Cao's first performance was correct but the turnout looks more like this:

Black: 55%
White: 40%
Other: 5%

Cao: 49%
Richmond: 51%

And if we assume a more even split with the higher turnout:

Cao: 44%
Richmond: 56%

I respect that GOPvoter is from New Orleans and has some information on the race that others might not have, but Cao's victory only really comes if he has nearly unanimous support from white voters and can peel away a big chunk of black voters (or have really low turnout for black voters).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I'm no master at projecting House races, but...
If I had to draw a model based on race, mine would look like...

Black - 53%
White - 43%
Other - 4%

Cao - 13/97/56 = 51%
Richmond - 87/3/44 = 49%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Some
African Americans in New Orleans are very socially conservative, especially on abortion. Richmond is one of the most pro-choice candidates ever nominated by Dems in New ORleans, and many black Dems will go with Cao just over abortion.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly as GOPVoter said.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
To be
honest Cao seems like the kind of person who if he holds on this year, I could see him being in the that seat for quite a while.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
They will redistrict around him...
So, yeah, they will manage to make him more safe...
[ Parent ]
Cook did not recently move the race to toss-up.
He's had it at toss-up for a long time.  Certainly since late 2009.  The other similar pundits have it at Lean D or Likely D.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Oh
I just read about it for the first time this week, so I assumed it was recent. My bad.  
[ Parent ]
Toss up no
but Cao does have a legitimate chance to win.  He is not a certain loser like most of the political establishment expects, and if he loses it won't be more than 10%.


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Why the Democrats are losing the votes of young adults
I recommend this excellent DailyKos diary to all of you.

Some illustrative quotes:

The reason this is happening is the recession, and the perception that Democrats are not doing enough to fix it. There is a feeling that Democrats tricked people into thinking that they were going to make big changes to the country, and then failed to make those changes.

You might think this is an unreasonable criticism, that the Democrats are doing the best they can, and that they never said they were leftists. I can understand that point of view, and it makes a lot of sense. But let's look at what millennials are dealing with in this economy, and it might not seem so unreasonable.[...]

Now, these are some of the problems that are affecting young people.

The unemployment rate among young people is[...]52.2 percent[....]

Tons of people are graduating from high school and college, and they are finding that they can't find jobs.

And they have tons of debt that they need to pay[....]

There is also a very large number of uninsured young people[....]

This all adds up, and creates a lot of stress and disillusionment. It makes you want to ignore politics completely. Because it seems like neither party is making any serious effort to solve all of these problems.

What are people likely to do when they think the Democrats are unable to solve problems? They will either stay home, or vote for the other party...

Toward the end of the diary is a list of things the Democrats could do to make young people enthusiastic again.

What I like so much about this diary is that it brings the large-scale politics down to the human level of the special kind of misery that is afflicting the younger generation and how that is affecting their political views and actions.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

Thank you, interesting stuff
the attacks by a number of DK members on the diarist, ironically, prove his point. Such attacks on a larger scale would alienate younger voters from the D party.
[ Parent ]
One more article associated with the loss of younger voters
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09...

(in part, an analysis of the Pew study described in the noted diary)

[ Parent ]
Nice video
The video given above has stolen my heart. I have listened to it a number of times and I liked it.
Pure Hoodia
Obvious spam based on the title of the link n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Pure Hoodia
Stealing all our hearts...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 380 comments

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