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IL-Sen: Pity the Poor Illinois Voter?

by: James L.

Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 3:19 PM EDT


Market Shares Corp for the Chicago Tribune/WGN (8/28-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34
Mark Kirk (R): 34
LeAlan Jones (G): 6
Mike Labno (L): 3
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)

One area where Giannoulias can gain some ground is among African American voters, who favor him over Kirk by 58-3 margin. This one is shaping up to be a battle of inches, though:

James L. :: IL-Sen: Pity the Poor Illinois Voter?
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IL-Sen: Pity the Poor Illinois Voter? | 20 comments
In a race b/w an unpopular Reep & unpopular Dem...
I say the Dem still wins in Illinois. Kirk has really lost traction, and if Giannoulias can shore up the Dem base, he'll probably be able to build more of a lead.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
Sexy Lexi!
I think that given the year and the weakness at the top of the ticket combined with Kirk's better financial situation, he's got the advantage.  The RSCC's double money won't hurt - has the DSCC thrown in double for Sexy Lexi as well?  I haven't heard if they had, just wondered.  But for sure, it's a game of inches and will be close either way.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
If this were Indiana or Missouri...
I'd agree with you, but this is Illinois and every indication so far seems to be that Obama is going all in to save "Sexy Lexi". As long as Obama has his side and the DSCC & OFA pump up Alexi with ads and GOTV field work, my guess is he wins, even if it's a close call.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Quite
Quite possible.  I'm sure Obama doesn't want to lose his senate seat along with Biden's and Kennedy's.  It's basically a coin toss, but I have Kirk locked in Slate's Lean/Lock game (where I  keep popping in and out of the top ten scores!) so I'm rooting for him.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Jan Jan the Cheerleading Man

[ Parent ]
The Thing is
Giannoulias is not really gaining ground with the Democratic base in Illinois. I don't want to talk for anyone else then myself, but we (Dems in Illinois) are basically bored with Giannoulias. Kirk had this race won, but then all his lies started coming out again. I'm really worried Giannoulias won't excite Dems enough to put him over the top.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
But will they stay home?
That seems to be the key question here. If Dems stay home, perhaps Giannoulias will go down in flames. But as long as enough Dems come out and vote for him, he wins.

So even if Dems aren't too excited about him, will they stay home?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Question
is, can Bill Brady drag Mark Kirk across the finish line? If this was an Giannoulias vs. Kirk race on its own Giannoulias would win.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Hoping
I'm hoping that he pulls in enough people in the south of the state to pull Kirk over the line.  Because he's a moderate, some would not normally bother, but if they get in a voting both, they won't be casting a ballot for Sexy Lexi.  I'm just hoping that the Constitution Party stays off the ballot.  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I guess
Kirk and Alexi's fates are reliant on how well Quinn does in November.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I
am not looking forward to seeing the Governor numbers. Oh well if we keep the Senate I'll live.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Is
Brady going to win by enough in the gov race to pull Kirk over the finish line?
That's what I'm suspecting
I do think, however, that Kirk needs to pull away a bit by October - even if only  by 3-5 points - in order to win. Cook County will deliver for Giannioulias, and that's at least 45% of the vote right there.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
If that's the case
Than Quinn needs to start hammering Brady to take his numbers down a bit and that could improve Alexi's chances.
[ Parent ]
Brady's vote will be mostly Anti-Quinn vote
so I don't think he could carry a lot of coattails to the senate
[ Parent ]
Hopefully
this ad will help:



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Obama will have to win Giannoulias his election...
Basically with so many undecided folks dislike both.  Alexi is smarmy and phony and Kirk is a liar.  

Alexi needs to make it about the Obama agenda.  How the Senate GOP enforce strict discipline against the Obama Agenda, Kirk will go to Washington to help kill the Obama Agenda, whereas Giannoulias will go to try and work with the Obama Administration.

Illinois better change its game
Neither Giannoulias or Kirk should get the vote.  I was so glad to see the Libertarian, Labno get on the ballot.  I always thought that Libs were radicals, but this race forced me to search for a better choice for MY vote.  Libertarians want to keep government out of places that should be free choice or guided b y one's religious leaders and beliefs.  After doing my research, I find I am not a monderate republican at all, but a real libertarian.  I will gladly vote for Labno and may even vote the entire libertarian slate.
james
wanna help out with this paulist? i don't want to label you a troll, youbetcha, but don't discuss your ideology on here as much as you're doing in this, your first post that i've seen. just the rules :)

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
I'm originally from the Chicago suburbs
as my name indicates...

My guess right now is that Alexi will beat Kirk.  Had Kirk not had the scandals he had, he would have won this.  While Brady is a lot more conservative than most Illinois Republicans who win statewide, I think Quinn is just about finished.   I wish I was back in Illinois this year, I'd much rather vote for Kirk and Brady than have to vote in the Texas Gov. race...

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

IL-Sen: Pity the Poor Illinois Voter? | 20 comments

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