Money

Fisher just doesn't have the money to compete with Portman.  In a different year, Strickland might have been able to get enough people out to make the difference, but he can't even save himself.  I don't expect the DSCC to spend much to try and take this seat.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:14:07 PM UTC

That would be a tremendous mistake

First of all, this race is still winnable.  For all his millions, Portman just isn't all that strong of a candidate.  Republicans here aren't all that enthused by his candidacy, not like Kasich at least, and he can be easily tied to the unpopular Bush Administration from his time as director of the OMB.  

Also, Portman is squandering his monetary advantage by not moneybombing the state with ads.  If he doesn't get started fairly soon, his money advantage is going to become less and less of a factor the closer we get to election day.  I don't know what kind of a strategy he's got up his sleeve, but the only reason he's ahead is because of the national mood, and because democrats apparently won't get off their butts to vote.  Those are pretty poor reasons to throw in the towel on a race.  

Also, if the DSCC pulls out, you're endangering the whole downballot, including the House races, which could be potentially disastrous in Ohio.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:43:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That last reason in a good one not to pull out, IMHO

But I have to be honest Stephen, I'm beginning to lose hope on this one. Portman may not be that strong of candidate, but Fischer seems even worse, and at this point he doesn't look like he's going to be pulled across by Strickland as I hoped

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by: markhanna @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:47:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

BTW, sorry I keep misspelling Fisher's name

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by: markhanna @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:49:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DSCC cannot pull out

Like Pennsylvania, the DSCC really cannot pull out here or fear losing a significant number of House seats in turn.  Even if the current results hold, the Democrats simply cannot afford to lose four House seats in Ohio then another four in Pennsylvania.  

The only way they pull out is if control of the Senate is in serious jeopardy.  Right now it is in jeopardy, but far from serious jeopardy.  I put the Dems odds of losing the Senate at 1 in 4, but if that goes to 2 in 5, you may see a pull out of Ohio and even Pennsylvania.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:49:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York

That trio of states around Lake Erie is really where things are going to be made or broken for Republicans this November. OH and PA both have competitive Governor and Senate races (and NY-Sen-B looked for a while like it was going to be a real race,) and the three states have as many as 17 competitive House elections. Democrats cannot afford to pull out of this region no matter how far Fisher, Strickland, and Sestak sink in the polls because they need to win about half the competitive House races to hold that chamber. I think the DNC will be involved here right up to the end.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:56:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Strategically

In a strategic sense, Pennsylvania might be the first state they pull out of with a competitive Senate race if the House is lost.  While it leans Democratic, the chances of controlling redistricting in Pennsylvania are slim to start with.  Ohio there is a legitimate chance of holding onto some redistricting power while the Republicans are more likely to dominate the process in Pennsylvania.  If you are thinking towards 2012, controlling redistricting is key especially in Ohio.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 18:10:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know

how the Pennsylvania State House is doing. Has anyone polled the generic ballot there? Is it likely it flips?

I assume they will try to get rid of Critz, Dahlkemper, Murphy, Carney, Kanjorski (or protect the Republicans who win there). Probably leave Altmire (?) to get all the Democratic vote into one district. But at a certain point, it becomes a dummymander, especially in the Philly suburbs.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 18:21:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Talking to people on both sides

I have been told by Republican and Democratic activists they both believe the Republicans are going to take the State House.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 18:39:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm

guessing I wouldn't be far from wrong if I say the only political offices Democrats after this November will hold will be in Philadelphia?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 20:20:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hahaha

Actually I think Democratic performance is not going to lag too much in their traditional strongholds.  Seeing most of the State House seats they hold are in Philadelphia or in southwestern Pennsylvania, I doubt more than 15 seats are at play.  

The Republicans only need to gain 4 to have a majority so its plausible the Republicans could flip enough to get a 4 to 5 seat majority.  They have lost 9 seats over the last two cycles so if they win them back or take a few others where the Democrats have incumbents retiring, they will have a small majority.  The biggest problem for the Democrats is that they have over a dozen open seats to defend.

In the State Senate, it appears only one seat is at play since there is an incumbent retiring.  Whether its at play is subject to conjecture.  I lean towards it being barely in play.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 20:59:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I could see the DSCC pulling out of Ohio in the long run

but not Pennsylvania. Sestak is a much better candidate than Fisher, who strikes me as a bit of a boring flub. Sestak is down but only after a stronger media presence by Toomey for most of the campaign. I have confidence that Sestak will replicate his primary strategy and go for a KO closer to election day and significantly improve his poll numbers.

I see little hope for Fisher on the other hand. He's a boring candidate matched up against another boring candidate with significantly more cash. The only way I see Fisher bringing himself into contention is by going hard economic populist, which I would personally prefer not happen.

Personally, I'd rather the DSCC focus devote its resources to knocking out the Tea Party nuts rather than the saner, vanilla-flavored Chamber of Commerce Republicans. The country simply can't tolerate a Congress tinged with Tea Party influence. The CoC candidates (like Portman and Ayotte) still suck, but they're not as dangerous and can be knocked out after one term.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

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by: LennyLiberal @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 18:51:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fisher winning

The only way I see Fisher bringing himself into contention is by going hard economic populist,

Totally would not mind this. Avoiding a policy derail, have there been any candidates recently-ish in Ohio-ish swingy states who have tried this? And any who have won?

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

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by: gabjoh @ Sun Sep 05, 2010 at 14:11:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We are in real trouble here...

I'm not sure without the cash Fischer can come back.  

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by: markhanna @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:38:01 PM UTC

Does anybody think

Fisher was the best choice for this race?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:40:16 PM UTC

Who would be better?

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by: lovespolitics @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:46:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you're thinking Brunner...

She was an even worse fundraiser than Fisher.  

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by: markhanna @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:48:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tim Ryan?

But all is said and done.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:51:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you guys are allowed to replace Fisher

we are allowed to replace Angle.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

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by: AC1 @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 23:18:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really, there were 2 for sure that were better

They were Tim Ryan and Jennifer Brunner, one didn't run and one of them ran and lost solely because of a financial disadvantage.

But outside of them I don't think that democrats had a whole lot of options here. I think Charlie Wilson could have made the plunge, but outside of him the house delegation is a little weak.  Zack Space maybe could've made a run at it but I'm glad he didn't as that would've left his house seat open.  

For statewide officeholders, arguably we got our two best into the race.  The AG is Richard Cordray, who I don't think would have fared well seeing as he's not a sure bet for re-election to that office.  The Auditor is a republican.  Brunner was probably the strongest candidate in the field behind Ryan, it's a shame that money decided the primary against Fisher because all other things being equal she was far superior in terms of campaigning ability, messaging, political instinct, charisma, everything.  If she was in the race, we'd still be facing the money disadvantage, but at least we'd have a candidate that was strong on the stump and could drum up grassroots support and turn out the base.  She'd probably do better among indies too, but I can't be sure about that.  I argued in the primary that Fisher's lack of likeability was going to kill him among the base, and with 21% of Dems not behind him and a 48/45 McCain electorate, it has come to fruition.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 17:53:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about Kaptur?

Are you assuming that she wouldn't want to give up her House seniority to be the 90th or so most senior Senator? I think she could have run well, and, at 64, held the seat for a few terms.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 18:00:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Okay, now I wish Brunner had won...

I guess I didn't realize that about her.  

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by: markhanna @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 18:11:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Tim Ryan would make this closer

He was a far more exciting candidate and knew how to fund raise. That was a big recruiting failure, IMO

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 18:20:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Recruitment failure?!

We got the Lt. Gov and the SOS of the state to run for this state, two offices that are elected statewide.  Don't give me that.

If anything, it's this crappy environment.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 19:53:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lee Fisher is a perennial failure as a statewide candidate...

He hasn't won a statewide race on his own since 1990, despite multiple attempts.  He's at least consistent... at losing!

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by: LordMike @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 20:41:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It felt like Fisher

was a forced establishment candidate and Brunner was a grassroots candidate. Of course he had more clout with the state party so they backed him mostly giving there money lines to him.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 21:54:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They were both crap

I thought the Brunner nostalgia might emerge at some point. The fact remains she couldn't raise money so it hardly matters about how good a candidate she may or may not have been. Anyway, I think it a waste of time to reprise this debate.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 23:21:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Never thought it was appropriate

to attack either candidate, but I have to say there was a lot of Brunner hate for no reason. An we can go into a long tirade about whether or not the large donors were told not to give her money even if the supported her. She did pretty well in the Primary for someone with money that pretty only came from a grassroots level. But that is besides the fact. So lets not go into the money issue I'm tired off it and I'm tired of the double standard that female candidates are put under.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 23:32:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]