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AK-Sen: Just Look at the Eye Candy

by: jeffmd

Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 11:55 PM EDT


I don't believe the title needs further explanation.

Can you guess what this map is of?
jeffmd :: AK-Sen: Just Look at the Eye Candy
The map up top is the 2008 race between Mark Begich and Ted Stevens, in which Begich prevailed by 1.25%.

If you guessed that correctly (without cheating), 10 points for Gryffindor. If you did cheat and look at the file name, boo on you too, but you can look at the Anchorage inset anyways:

Here's a redux of the Murkowski-Miller race (blue for Murk, Red for Miller; Absentees not included):

And you can judge for yourself similarities between that at the 2008 GOP primary, Young-Parnell (Young in blue, Parnell in red):

I'm not that optimistic about Scott McAdams' chances in November, but there does seem to be a path for him:

Areas of strong Begich performance are decently correlated with areas of strong Murkowski performance - or put differently - weaker Miller performance. Given that, this seems to bode somewhat better for McAdams, in that he could piece together the Begich coalition of Anchorage + Outlying Areas + Juneau for a win, pulling in disaffected Murkowski GOPers. Those areas (notably, GOP voters in those areas) weren't exactly hopping for Miller.
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AK-Sen: Just Look at the Eye Candy | 37 comments
all i see
are a bunch of angry bird's heads

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
The red boroughs...
... look a little like the Grand Duchy of Warsaw.

...

Yes, I'm a giant dork.  

[ Parent ]
Don't feel bad
I didn't even need to look at a map of Napoleonic Europe to know you were right. Major geekage.

SSP is described a home for progressives where Republicans are guests, but it's just as much a home for dorks where non-dorks are confused bystanders.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
But do you switch between
U.S. House polling data, obscure animé characters, and videogame design in the same conversation?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Oh I do that in my sleep
Granting it's usually Senate rules rather than House polling but still :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Ooh, awesome, a fellow gamer on these boards!
We should chat in the next open thread.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
You beat me on that one
n/t

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
But it's not just for geeks...
and the eye candy is worth the watching. For someone who loves statistics, it is like looking at the omega molecule...

46, D, Germany (OH-03)

[ Parent ]
God, this is amazing.
Someone who loves statistics, US electoral politics, is from Germany and seems to love opera.

God, if you weren't almost 30 years older than I am, you could be my twin.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
I much rather would have had a Murkowski win...
Than take an extreme long shot chance that McAdams can beat Miller.  Miller will have 10x the money than McAdams will have, and I suspect Murkowski will come around to endorsing him in due time.  

Miller had to be favored by double digits.  

Murkowski was a reasonable Republican, and probably would have been even more reasonable with a new six year term in hand.  Miller is a fringe nut, but will have the Palin machine and thus the Parnell machine behind him not to mention gobs of teabagger money coming his way.  

I agree with this assessment
I'd take the sure win of a sane Republican over the improved, but apparently still long-shot, chances of a Democrat beating the more fringe right-alternative.  

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
you all are giving Murkowski way too much credit
I'd rather take the loud mouth who votes against cloture and who will make headlines for us vs the one who will just vote against cloture.

Although, since the Senate will be a much different make-up, Murkowski could have been another Snowe/Collins type once we water down our bills more.

[ Parent ]
Ditto
In terms of voting behavior, the sane ones aren't much better, especially when it counts.  I'll take a visibly crazy Republican over one that hides it.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
There is no way
in hell she will endorse the Sarah Palin proxy whom essentially called her a whore.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I agree
I am having severe trouble imagining an endorsement from her. I also think the money advantage for Miller is oversold. Alaska is a cheap state to run in, so some halfway decent funding for McAdams could go a long way.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Also note that Miller is only 43
So with the benefits of incumbency he could easily stick around for 40+ years.
[ Parent ]
Agree, but
Losing Murkowski is definitely another big blow for the not-insane wing of the congressional Rs.  But I think we should wait for the dust to settle before counting out McAdams.  The DSCC (and the NRSC) can both saturate the airwaves for a tiny fraction of what it costs in most other states, and Miller already looks prone to making the same crazy remarks and batshit issue positions that his compatriots (Angle, Paul, Buck, Fiorina) around the country are busy doing.  I bet he makes enough remarks in a short time to quickly fill up a 30-second attack ad.

I'm not sanguine about our prospects this fall, but our biggest asset is absolutely the lunatics that Republican primary voters keep sending our way.

[ Parent ]
Indeed. Exhibit A: NY-23


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Outside interferance
Won't go down well with Alaskans. People argued that part of the reason Begich and Berkowitz underperformed their polling was DSCC and DCCC involvement in those races. Miller will just use their entry to tie McAdams to Washington Dems which would be lethal. I understand the desire to make this competitive but in my view the risk reward ratio is just not worth it.
[ Parent ]
It Already Did Go Down Well
Miller was the beneficiary of the huge involvement of outsiders. If he wants to make it an issue, let him do so.

Via Nate Silver: "In particular, the Tea Party Express purchased more than $500,000 worth of advertising on Mr. Miller's behalf. That would be a fairly large sum for any senate primary. But it's a huge amount of money in Alaska, a low-population state in which only about 100,000 votes will ultimately be counted in the Republican primary (on a per-voter basis, Mr. Miller's $500,000 was the equivalent of an $8.5 million ad buy in the Republican primary in California)." http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

Without data, I'm skeptical as to what extent national involvement was the cause of Democratic underperformance in Alaska. I've read that it's an extremely difficult state to poll accurately.

[ Parent ]
I don't think you can compare the Tea Party
With the unpopularity of Washington Democrats, especially somewhere like Alaska. I continue to see any investment here beyond advice and information sharing as a waste without any reward
[ Parent ]
Different Arguments
Then there's a difference between "outside interference" and "Washington Democrats" arguments.

And again, I wonder how much the "Washington Democrats" argument is going to sway people who might vote for McAdams otherwise. Any competent campaign would poll the issue first and act accordingly.

[ Parent ]
We'll have to step up our operation
and churn out this meme really fast then.

Repeat after me:

Jeff Miller's money does not come from Alaska.  Jeff Miller's money does not represent Alaskan values.
Jeff Miller's money does not come from Alaska.  Jeff Miller's money does not represent Alaskan values.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Neither does Joe Miller's money
   Who is Jeff Miller?  You gotta watch the first names when the last names are super common ones like Miller, Johnson or Green(e)...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Ahh crap.
Egg all over my face.

Jeff Miller...I just read that name somewhere in one of the daily digests.  He's another candidate somewhere; I know that much.

Well, there's my epic fail quota of the day achieved.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Yep.
Heath Shuler's NC-11 opponent.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
also
FL-01 rep.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but for Republicans
the whole point this election cycle is to get to 41 U.S. Senators that are not 'reasonable'.  41 Senators that will unquestioningly obstruct any further Democratic efforts at reforms of any kind.
[ Parent ]
they cant obstruct everything
After 2010 and the GOP gain a bunch of seats, people will expect them to actually help us govern.  We'll still pick the topics but we hopefully won't spend a couple of months trying to build bipartisanship only for it to be a ploy to waste our time.
[ Parent ]
What I'm hoping is a silver lining of this
At least in terms of enjoying the best quality cat fud out there, is that this will help the TPE turn its attention to Christine O'Donnell and Delaware. Now that Murkowski has officially conceded, they can turn their attention to their next victim... Michael Castle!

At least, that's what an aspiring applicant to the CFS program hope..  

that's a race we'd win
if the tea party could knock off Castle for us. I doubt it will happen, though.
[ Parent ]
So, is anyone else getting Joe Miller web ads on the left side of the page?

Yyyyep!
And I wouldn't be surprised if he actually thought that he could change some minds around here with these ads.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
MeToo
Well, if the campaign wants to spend its money here, I say bring it on!
[ Parent ]
Cha-ching!

[ Parent ]
I see a very clear path to victory
1. Alaska is a very cheap state to campaign in.
2. We (or someone) raise $500,000 to pour into the state for McAdams.
3. Earmark a fair portion of that money to buy Lisa Murkowski's contact lists off her (she has a price, I'm sure, and what good are they to her anymore?).
4. Use the rest to produce and place some ads that show just what a whackdoodle Miller is.

McAdams could easily squeak by.

The DSCC
should throw down some of the money they might of reserved for Blanche Lincoln who's the Rick Santorum of 2010 and dump it into Alaska. Dump a few hundred thousand and test if Alaskans would be willing to send someone who openly advocates on NATIONAL TV that we should wipe out social security and medicare.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Just Look at the Eye Candy | 37 comments

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