You raise a really good point in this...

One that I've wrestled with as well. In a year like this, who do you root for as the Republican if you're a Dem like me - the less insane (or less crooked) or the more beatable?

I end up going for the former, which is why I was rooting for Branstad in Iowa and McCollum in Florida even though I'd never vote for either one.

But if this was 2008, I'd almost certainly root for the latter. I just think this is too dangerous of year.

(agree with your ranking move, btw)  

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by: markhanna @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 17:30:43 PM UTC

A 22 point lead

In a GOP wave election is surely at least likely R.

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by: Ireland @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:11:19 PM UTC

22 point lead may be overstated

Apparently Bernero still has almost no name recognition -- he was lucky to get any even among people who vote in the Democratic primary.  (I say "apparently", because I'm from Lansing, where he is well-known.)  So he has lots of room to improve his numbers; his current support is likely to be a floor for generic Democrat-without-scandal.

Snyder got through the primary pretty cleanly; he even skipped the debates, and the worst of the negative ads were not aimed at him.  People voted for him because he might turn out to be responsible, and the other choices were known to be worse than neutral.  But there will be more focus on the race as the general election gets closer; he probably won't be able to keep up the "generic moderate" image as easily, so his support may be a ceiling instead of a floor.  I personally answered a poll leaning Snyder this week, but I'm certainly not committed.

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by: JimJ @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:31:02 PM UTC

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It is "Lean R"...for now

Snyder does have the momentum, money, and the media on his side.  I, however, think this race will be a toss-up by the time we get to the election.  Snyder hasn't been tested much.  He received minimal criticism during the primary. There was only one negative television ad (an ad that was directed at Snyder and Hoekstra) that aired the weekend before the primary.  Many voters haven't been exposed to Snyder's weaknesses.  This is why Snyder wants all of the debates to be finished by the middle of September.  He doesn't want all his weaknesses presented during a poor debate performance just a week or so before the vote.    

Snyder also isn't running on much other than the typical GOP talking point of "cut taxes."  His "plan to reinvent Michigan" is vague ideas that even us simpletons could have written.  Snyder is all about marketing the nerd image.  There's very little substance to his campaign.  The question is whether this will matter to voters.  I think once his business career is examined more closely, the nerd image will start to look less appealing...particularly to Democrats and progressive independents who were thinking of voting for him.

Whoever wins, I think it will be much closer than this poll indicates.      

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by: blue_onyx @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:48:18 PM UTC

blue onyx is right

The latest polling shows that Bernero is leading among high school dropouts and among those who make less than $25,000 a year.  Given the demographic trends in Michigan, he has at least the makings of a winning coalition.  The path to victory is in sight!  

In fact, I think this race should still be deemed a toss up, assuming that our GOTV efforts are strong enough to bring out our core voters, and the Tea Baggers stay away from a relative moderate like Snyder.

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by: michdem @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 03:24:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]