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NM-01, NM-02: Heinrich Leads Barela by 6, Teague Leads Pearce by 3

by: James L.

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 10:02 AM EDT


Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal (8/23-27):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 47
Jon Barela (R): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±5%)

The good news is: Heinrich is in the lead, unlike his performance in that nasty SUSA poll from a month ago. The bad news is that this is a real race, and one that Democrats cannot afford to take for granted. After pasting the extremely hyped Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White by 11 points in 2008, few thought that Heinrich would be in trouble this cycle against a lesser-known foe. But you can't ignore the numbers -- this is what some would call "striking distance".

Barela beats Heinrich among independents by 51-45 and takes 33% of the Hispanic vote. Unlike SurveyUSA, though, the unimaginatively-named Research & Polling finds Heinrich up on Barela by 20 points among 18-to-34 year-olds. If you recall, SUSA had Barela running ahead by three points among that demographic.

Meanwhile, we also have some pretty amazing NM-02 numbers:

Harry Teague (D-inc): 45
Steve Pearce (R): 42
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±5%)

I say "amazing" because the general vibes I've been getting from from this race haven't been particularly strong for Teague. Teague trailed Pearce by two points in a PPP poll back in February, but the national (and local) mood has not improved since then. Teague did release an internal poll claiming a one-point lead on Pearce back in April (up from a 10-point Pearce lead a year ago), but we haven't seen any additional polls until now.

Perhaps one factor moving the numbers for Teague is the $325K ad buy against Pearce by the Defenders of Wildlife. (The New Mexico Independent has their latest ad, if you'd like to watch it.) The fact that Teague is apparently hanging in there while so many frosh Dems are struggling to tread water is pretty remarkable.
James L. :: NM-01, NM-02: Heinrich Leads Barela by 6, Teague Leads Pearce by 3
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NM-01, NM-02: Heinrich Leads Barela by 6, Teague Leads Pearce by 3 | 32 comments
The Defenders of Wildlife's new ad that you linked is really hard-hitting.
I mean, this is a great ad.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

I thought Pearce cried to his mommy
and got the ad pulled off the air?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Maybe it was the ad before that.
This ad I embedded is much more recent.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Heh. For a low information voter...
the ad makes it seem like Pearce is the current Congressman, instead of the previous guy trying to get his old job back after getting royally spanked in the Senate race.

Given the supposed anti-Washington mood this year, smart move by them to tie Pearce to his tenure in D.C.  I wonder if this can be applied in other races where an ex-Congressman is seeking to get their old job back.

[ Parent ]
Independent Polling
Considering the dearth of independent polling we have seen this year (and the relative dominance of Rasmussen numbers), it is good see this one coming out - especially with Democrats leading both.
Good!
Hope it holds by November. I don't have anything against moderate Republicans, but i don't know a single moderate among republican candidates this year (may be - Martinez???). so it's good to see Democrats leading
Martinez isn't moderate
Just saying.  
[ Parent ]
At least - she tried to present herself as something reasonable..
Sad.
[ Parent ]
RV or LV?
Any word on whether these are registered or likely voters? If these are RV polls, then using a LV screen Pearce probably has a small lead and Heinrich is in a toss-up race.
At this stage, probably LV.
Although the newspaper's website is a subscription-only one.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I disagree.
Not all pollsters this late in the game poll LVs. The "usual suspects" do, like PPP, Rasmussen, Q-pac, Mason-Dixon, etc. But these local papers and local firms often march to the beat of their own drummer, like the Franklin/Marshall polls in Pennsylvania.
[ Parent ]
But their poll of NM-Gov matches a recent LV poll by Ras.
That's why I assume that they are polling LV.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
RCP says it's Likely Voters.

[ Parent ]
MSNBC had NM-02 as a Top 10
race nationwide to flip.  Those guys usually know what they're talking about, so this is a pleasant surprise.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Y'know the rankings of congressmen you could save in the open thread?
Teague isn't my number 1, but he is top 5-7.

This makes me VERY happy.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

That's where I had the seat
I'll probably drop it to between 12 and 15 now.
[ Parent ]
Teague leading is a surprise
Especially at this stage. It would be fantastic if he held on.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Hands dow, the Teague poll is the most surprising poll I've seen this month
This seat is in the top 20 of almost every commentators likely to flip list. If someone like Teague holds on, it becomes very unlikely that the Republicans will take control of the House.

Conversely, it seems very unlikely to me the Democrats will keep control of the House if Heinrich's seat (and others like it), flip. So this is all very interesting.

As to what is happening here, take your pick: 1). Teague is up artificially because of the Defenders of Wildlife Ad 2). The poll is off (although other polls seem to back up the idea this race is a tossup) or 3). Teague is really ahead and (and here I'll do my best Duffman or Tommy Paine imitation), there is no Republican wave happening.  

I've always contended
that the micro-dynamics are so unfavorable to Republicans at a district level that there will be a vastly smaller 'wave' than expected, with 20-30 seats lost, if even that. Their lead in the generic ballot is pumped up mostly by a huge lead in the south, where unfortunately for them most of their Democratic targets like Childress and Bright have done a good job inoculating themselves among voters and turning it into a local race between a sane conservative and an insane conservative.  
[ Parent ]
Same, i've always maintained that
Candidates and campaigns matter. Fortunately for us, we have a decent edge in that department, whether it's cash raised or the effectiveness and strategy used by different campaigns. Pearce couldn't even win his district for Senator against a 'liberal congressman from Santa Fe', and Teague has been a great fit for the district. This could easily turn out to be a NM-01 redux circa 2006, where everyone expected Madrid to beat Heather Wilson, but fell short.
[ Parent ]
Patricia Madrid
somehow found a way to be more lackluster and uninspiring than Heather Wilson. In 2006 Democrats had a big edge in favorability of the targets, candidates, campaigns, and even the political environment was a lot worse for Republicans than it is for Democrats now, and they picked up 33 seats, which is where I top off possible Republican gains. Do note that in 2006 races that were thought to be likely Democratic, like PA-06, CT-04, NM-01, stayed Republican. I feel we could see something like that with Democrats like Teague, Nye, Kratovil, Childress, etc. Walter Minnick and Bobby Bright don't really count as this category because technically nobody sees them as being in close races, particularly Minnick who, (and this is truly stunning), could even win by a double digit margin...in that district, in this environment.  
[ Parent ]
I'm hoping some of this gets clarified after Labor Day
Polling is all over the map. But right now jwaalk, although I always think you're too optimistic, I find myself right where you are on the biggest possible Republican gains - 33, although it certainly could go higher or lawyer.

Is that what you really think though - it seems to me you might be favoring a much lower results for Republicans?  

[ Parent ]
Sorry, I meant lower, not lawyer
Although if the election is particularly close...
[ Parent ]
I am, more so in the
Senate than anywhere else, where, at this moment, I have Republicans picking up ND, DE, PA, and AR, with Democrats winning MO, KY, and NH, (I've always though Lamotogne would slip through the primary on the basis of being popular among the conservative grassroots, and the other candidates ripping each other to pieces in advertising flurries). So a net loss of one seat for Democrats, and possible even a net loss of zero seats. I could see Republicans holding MO, but Toomey tanking once the DSCC and Sestak unload on him, those rendering the results pretty much the same. OH and NC also both have potential.  
[ Parent ]
But not IN?
wow.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Knew there was one I was forgetting
Yes, IN as well.  
[ Parent ]
Agree
on the seats being good predictors.  Although I could see the Republicans still winning the House while losing NM-2.  I can't see the Democrats holding the House while losing NM-1.
[ Parent ]
My Thoughts - NM Native Here
As I said yesterday in another post I am from Teague's district though I have lived in Virginia the past 5 years. Teague has his work really cut out for him.

1. Yes Pearce is not liked to the extent that his predecessor Joe Skeen (a moderate Republican who did a lot of good for the district's farming industry) was and he did lose to the Liberal Congressmen from Santa Fe in his own district but the Udall's are a political dynasty in the area and Obama drew out huge Latino voter numbers who otherwise wouldn't vote. Pearce has raised lots of cash and has the political wind at his back in a reliably conservative district.
2. Just wait until the news about Harry Teague's company dropping Health Care coverage to their employees hits and we'll see if he has a 3 point lead.
3. In the end I see this as a 6-9 point Pearce victory.
4. I see Heinrich as safe though. Will be a 4-6 point win but I don't see him going down. He did defeat a very worthy opponent in 2008 in Bernalillo County Sherriff Darren White who had lots of name recognition but the Obama surge definitely helped Heinrich.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

Well
1. How are the Udall's a "political dynasty" in southern NM? Tom Udall's dad and uncle represented Tucson in congress. Tom Udall moved to New Mexico in the 70s for law school and has only ever lived in Northern NM. I don't see how the Udall name would have a lot of sway in Las Cruces.
2. Old news. Besides, Pearce's record on health care sucks, so him trying to make Teague's record into a big deal probably wouldn't end well.
3. I don't know that Teague is going to hold on, but it's probably going to be a lot closer than that.
4. Agreed completely. I actually think Darren White may have won in a neutral year.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Your name reminds me of a Danish friend of mine named Nicolay.
Off-topic, but just wanted to say that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Too much NM politics discussion going on
I read Danish as Denish.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
lol


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
NM-01, NM-02: Heinrich Leads Barela by 6, Teague Leads Pearce by 3 | 32 comments

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