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SSP Daily Digest: 8/30 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 7:21 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is still refusing to say whether he'll caucus with the Dems or the GOP if he wins, a position which looks increasingly untenable as we get down to crunchtime.
  • LA-Sen: It looks like TPM got tipped to an interesting story: David Vitter's campaign has been sending letters to Louisiana newspaper editors pressuring them about their coverage of Brent Furer, the former Vitter aide responsible for women's issues - who also attacked his girlfriend with a knife. TPM's characterization is that Vitter is "trying to intimidate newspapers into giving Furer what he considers fair coverage."
  • MO-Sen: The DSCC, which has reserved $4 million in ad time in Missouri, is out with its first ad of the race, attacking Roy Blunt.
  • NV-Sen: For a while it looked like Harry Reid might get the NRA's endorsement, but it turns out that the group won't be backing him this cycle (though they aren't getting behind Sharron Angle, either).
  • CO-Gov: LOL - Tom Tancredo picked a running mate, a former state representative named Pat Miller who served a single term twenty years ago. She sounds just as batshit as he is. I'd love to know why her tenure in the state lege was so illustrious.
  • CT-Gov: A nice bump for Dan Malloy: He just collected $6 million in public financing for his gubernatorial run, the most anyone's been awarded in Connecticut history. But Republican Tom Foley is ultra-rich - he's already given his campaign $3 million, and as the CT Mirror puts it:
  • Foley, who owns a 100-foot yacht, an airplane and a waterfront Greenwich estate, laughed and stammered when asked how could much he afford to spend.

    "Well, I, ...," Foley began, then he paused and said, "Could I afford to match him? Yeah."

  • NH-Gov: Dem Gov. John Lynch has reported raising $1.3 million to date (though that includes a half-million dollar personal loan), and has $750K on hand. His Republican opponent, John Stephen, has raised just under a million bucks and has $800K left.
  • OH-Gov: God, if John Kasich loses, it'll be for two reasons: First, Ted Strickland has run a good campaign. Second, he has Chronic Acute Goofball Disease, an incurable condition which causes you to do shit like... propose a regulatory overhaul plan that is basically identical to one your opponent already enacted two years ago. Kasich even ganked the name, dubbing his plan "Common Sense Initiative Ohio" (CSI Ohio - does that even make sense?), while Teddy Ballgame's was "Common Sense Business Regulation Executive Order."
  • TX-Gov: Wow, what a horror: Nearly all of Harris County, TX's voting machines were destroyed in a fire, and the cause is still unknown. Election officials are putting on a brave face, but this is obviously a major nightmare for this fall's elections. What's more (and this is why we're filing it under "TX-Gov"), Harris County is home to Houston, the largest city in Texas and, of course, where Dem nominee Bill White served as mayor for eight years. Not good.
  • AR-03: I'm not sure whether to laugh or to cry. A Talk Business Research/Hendrix College poll has Republican Steve Womack up 55-31 against Dem David Whitaker in this ultra-red district, the most Republican (by far) in Arkansas. Why am I going schizo? Well, these numbers are very similar to Talk Business's surveys of AR-01 and AR-02, districts where we're supposed to have a much better chance this fall (or at least the 1st CD). So either AR-01 is as bad as AR-03, or one of these polls is wrong. I'm not betting on good news for us.
  • GA-12: Regina Thomas's secret plan to run as a write-in, despite Georgia law pretty clearly barring that option, has been thwarted. She won't be eligible this November in any way, shape, or form - and she's also refusing to endorse the Dem primary winner, Rep. John Barrow.
  • MO-08: Dem Tommy Sowers is up with his first negative ad of the season, once again touting his "combat bible," and attacking Rep. Jo Ann Emerson as a bailout supporter. (There's also a gratuitous shot of him firing a gun at the end.) The campaign says it will spend "at least $100,000 to air the spot on broadcast and cable stations throughout" the district. More interestingly, though, is the fact that Emerson is also out with a negative spot - not something you'd expect would be necessary given the lopsided polling, the super-red nature of the district, and the fact that it's 2010. NWOTSOTB. You can find links to both ads at the link.
  • NE-02: Dem Tom White unveiled his first ad, which is "set to air on broadcast and cable channels in the Omaha area" this week. (NWOTSOTB though.)
  • OH-01: Dem Rep. Steve Driehaus is up with his first ad, a spot which attempts to draw distinctions between his record and that of former Rep. Steve Chabot, who is making a comeback bid. Interestingly (and I think this is a wise move), Driehaus is making the argument that his vote for the stimulus was a vote for tax cuts - which in fact it was. The ad really strikes me as lacking any emotional punch, though. NWOTSOTB, though the ad (which you can view here) is reportedly airing on "Cincinnati's four local affiliates and cable."
  • VA-02: Maybe it sounds like rapprochement to you, but to me, it sounds like "Either your brains or your signature will be on this pledge." Teabaggers in Virginia's second CD, long hostile to Republican nominee Scott Rigell, have compelled him to sign a seven-part pledge endorsing several of their favorite platforms - but even so, they aren't endorsing Rigell in return. Still, one teabag leader seems to finally be playing realpolitik, claiming she wants to isolate indie Kenny Golden, so maybe a right-wing split will be averted here (sadly).
  • DCCC: Not sure how much Politico (as is their wont) is over-reading Chris Van Hollen's remarks, but they make it sound like CVH is threatening to cut off under-performing Democratic candidates if they don't get their acts together. Nothing like some threats of triage to get the troops motivated, huh?
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/30 (Morning Edition)
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    DCCC
    Lets just say this could be true, though unlikely, CVH cutting off funding; Who would you let go and let them fend for themselves?

    My picks woulds be Bright, Minnick, and Taylor.

    NY-29


    We won't know until late in the game
    they'd most likely cut off candidates with no path to victory and who can't raise enough money on their own. The Democrats are going to have to have a strong firewall system in place if they plan on holding on to the House, and that will mean cutting off candidates like that.  

    [ Parent ]
    this better be likely
    We don't have the money to fund all of them.

    Dreihaus is gone, Kilroy sucks, Kratovil's days are probably numbered.  (Ill have more when they aren't off the top of my head.)


    [ Parent ]
    If those polls by that conservative group are accurate
    then we've been writing off Driehaus and Kilroy too soon.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah but
    Kilroy still sucks. Driehaus at least seems like a somewhat better campaigner and is younger so he'll be around to hold a seat for longer. Frankly, I think any Congressperson that doesn't overperform the presidential bar is kinda weak sauce. However, as challengers, Kilroy & Driehaus could be cut a little slack. Now that they're incumbents, it's sink or swim.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    A few comments on the CO-Gov link made me laugh.
    Ugh...isn't this the woman who played the secretary in Ferris Bueler's Day Off? :lol:

    And in response to that comment:

    I'm waiting for her to say something like: "Oh, Tancredo's very popular. The sportos, motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wasteoids, dweebies, they all adore him. They think he's a righteous doood." :lol:

    ^_^

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    NV-Sen: Released yesterday is the audio of a radio interview of Sharron Angle
    from 2005 when she was running for Congress.  In this interview, she said she would vote "no" on the aid package in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    well thats a perfect ad
    "Sharron Angle is so extreme she wouldn't  have even helped the victims of Hurricane Katrina.  Makes you wonder, what would Sharron Angle do for Nevada in our time of need?  (Play infamous clip of her saying it wouldn't be her job as Senator to create jobs.)

    Now that's a kick in the balls, or breasts in Angle's case.  (I hear that hurts a lot, too).  Its unfortunate she's the only one giving us these money quotes because its pretty much the whole mantra of the GOP currently, drop dead because it isn't our job to help you.  We're only your government!


    [ Parent ]
    Blunt's Record
    While I personally believe that the TARP vote was the right thing to do it remains wildly unpopular. I do think that the way lots of GOPers have tried to get away from that vote and pin it on the Dems has been totally disingenuous and I like that Roy Blunt is being called out for this. This is a guy who was responsible for rounding up votes related to this for crying out loud! This is also the same guy who had revotes several times and told the cameras to stop during the Medicare Part D fiasco. Yet nobody talks about it. People forget this and I think Blunt's record needs to be what people become familiar with. That said, given this climate Carnahan is likely not going to prevail but I do like the investment by the DSCC. I think that an investment in Ohio where voters are reminded of Portman's record is coming soon as well.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    I also like how the ad narrator says "Missoura"
    It dulls the fact that this ad is financed by an outside group.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I also like how the ad narrator says "Missoura"
    It dulls the fact that this ad is financed by an outside group.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    The fact that the DSCC
    has preserved an eye-popping 4 million dollars in Missouri is also a clear sign they regard this as one of their best opportunities, though I hope they're still plopping down a few million in KY, NC, and 6-7 million in Ohio.  

    [ Parent ]
    Questionable Tactics
    The bank bailout, while distasteful, was I think necessary (what was the alternative that would leave us better off today?). While the ad tries to tie the vote to corruption, I wonder if that's what most people will hear. There are plenty of Democrats who voted for the bailout. Is the idea that the ads that run Missouri won't be heard elsewhere?

    Same with running against "Washington." With their majorities, Democrats are seen as Washington. I suppose the DSCC is trying to regionalize the race--how many endangered House members are there in Missouri?--but running against "Washington" can be a killer for many Democrats in tough races in states like Ohio.


    [ Parent ]
    TX-Gov
    Harris County is home to Houston, the largest city in Texas and, of course, where Dem nominee Bill White served as mayor for eight years. Not good.

    Houston is not just the largest city in Texas - it's the 4th largest city in the US. What a mess - I hope Texas Democrats are out in front of whatever solution is developed.  

    I would hate to see shenanigans like unequal distribution of voting machines to Democratic areas of Houston end up determining the Governor's race. After all, denying brown people the chance to vote is part of Republican Electoral Strategy 101.  


    Paper Ballots
    No need for huge lines at the polls, just give folks paper ballots, stick them in a locked box and count them at the end of the night with observers from both parties watching.  Sure it takes longer, but it's better than denying people the right to vote.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Oh geez.
    In the comments section of the Houston Chronicle piece, hundreds of right-wingers have voted up comments claiming this fire must've been set by "liberal democrats who know they are about to lose their pants this Nov. They will try anything."

    In reality-land, we know this only serves to hurt Bill White.  But wow, the cognitive dissonance is astounding with those people.


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, seriously...
    if we were afraid of losing wouldn't we be burning the Montgomery Co. voting machines or something? Bill White should win Harris County pretty easily so that is quite a dumb thing to say.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Tom Foley...
    embodies much of what people don't like about Connecticut. What a douchebag.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    IA-01, IA-Gov
    The American Future Fund went up on the air against Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) last week. At Bleeding Heartland I looked at the ad (Ground Zero mosque!) and also at the 501(c)4 group's deep involvement in Terry Branstad's gubernatorial campaign.

    Politico is over-reading
    I think--the DCCC should cut off underperforming candidates, but I didn't see that threat in CVH's remarks.

    MO-08
    Emerson seems like she's learned from Murkowski. Despite her district's PVI and the cycle, she's not taking anything for granted because she knows her opponent has the ability to make things interesting with his cash (and her $808K CoH are no good if she doesn't use them!) Plus, ending this race before it can get interesting would probably help Blunt, as a competitive house race would bring more Dems to the polls.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    Agreed
    I don't read much into this besides she's being overly cautious. Unlike a lot of celebrity donors, I've never been on the Tommy Sowers bandwagon.  

    [ Parent ]
    PoliticalWire: Gary Langer: "Don't Believe Everything People Tell Pollsters"
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    KY-Sen: Jack Conway out with first ad of the cycle.
    A positive ad:


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Excellent...
    I was hoping he was going to use the Fraternal Order of Police endorsement with a bunch of police officers praising Conway in an ad.  Good to see the Conway camp do this just two weeks after the endorsement came down.  :-)

    Now... any word on the size of the buy?


    [ Parent ]
    It's
    nice to see that Conway is running ads on his record of busting the drug trade in Kentucky, especially considering Rand Paul's recent comments about drugs not being a major problem in eastern Kentucky  

    17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

    [ Parent ]
    An e-mail I got about a conference here at the University of Georgia you all might like
    Think you might be interested in this:

    "Dear Graduate Students,

    Keith Poole is organizing a conference to assess the outcome of this year's midterm elections. It will be an all day conference at the Georgia Center on Friday, November 12. Please save the date. Faculty, students, and the public are encouraged to attend. Among the scheduled panel participants are:

    John Petrocik ( University of Missouri)
    Gary Jacobson (UCSD)
    Nolan McCarty (Princeton)
    Gary Miller (Washington University)
    Brian Schaffner (UMass, Amherst)
    Daron Shaw (University of Texas)(tentative)
    Brian Gaines (University of Illinois)
    Ben Bishin (UC-Riverside)
    David Bradford (University of Georgia)
    Jamie Monogan (University of Georgia)
    Andy Whitford (University of Georgia)

    In addition, Chuck Bullock will moderate a roundtable public forum consisting of Georgia politicians. The tentative schedule is as follows:

               Panel 1. 9:00 - 10:15 a.m. Public Opinion and the Elections.
               Panel 2. 10:30 - 11:15 a.m. Analyzing the Issues.
               Panel 3. 1:30 - 3:00 p.m. Public Forum: Roundtable discussion with politicians.
               Panel 4. 3:30 - 5:00. Election 2010 and the Future."

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    Today's daily dose of lulz: NC-Sen
    Civitas, a Republican pollster, has a poll claiming that Marshall is screwed because she is losing independents 39-32 to Richard Burr.

    http://www.nccivitas.org/media...

    Nevermind that McCain won independent voters 60-39 in 2008 and still lost.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    large Net positive favorability
    Marshall Haz them.

    I really hope the NC senate race becomes one of those under the radar wins for us.  That would be so awesome.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    Well, I misread that poll
    They have even net favorability

    Marshall has more room to grow though, which is good.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    Let's all cheer
    for Rasmussen Reports:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Manchin 48% (D)
    Raese 42% (R)

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26



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