I respect Ipsos as a rule, but this poll is inaccurate and not valid based on Republican Party behavior......

I've learned in recent years that we learn a lot more about the state of the race from how candidates and parties behave than from polling, at least when the behavior diverges from a poll.

And Republicans aren't getting behind Maes.

If that changes, only then can we say Ipsos is on to something.

But otherwise, this poll is not valid.  Keep in mind if the RGA and state party bought into it, they'd go full bore, even with Tancredo in the race.  You don't give up on a nominee who's down only 8 points in August in a wave year favoring your own party!  If you do give up on him, it means that poll is just wrong.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 01:14:11 AM UTC

I think this is so wrong

It's about 5-8 points more optimistic for Maes than even Rasmussen. I call foul.  

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by: jwaalk @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 01:21:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Brinksmanship

That's the only explanation I can find because even if this poll is 5-8 points favorable to Maes, RGA would STILL be funding this race.

If the RGA still thinks there is a chance for him to drop out. Awfully tough to say "Drop out. But if you don't here's a million dollars for your campaign."

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by: tallsy @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 02:11:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very true.

You'd think that the RGA would be fed much more favorable internals on the situation, but the national establishments have all pulled out of this state already.

One does wonder, though, what will happen election day if the so-called top of the ticket continues to be so bad for Republicans.  Rovian math would imply that depressed base turnout may well save Bennett if he ends up lagging in the polls.  Unless Bennett is so much more toxic than Buck, or Hickenlooper has massive Republican/conservative appeal, I don't see a reason why people would ticket split on this race.

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by: isentrope @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 02:30:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not true, people ticket split all the time on major stuff......

It's the state legislative and local races and the low-profile statewide races that benefit or suffer from coattails.

But people pay attention to Governor and Senate separately and individually, and ticket-split routinely.

No question the Governor's race matchup helps Bennet.  Republicans in Colorado aren't offering nonpartisans and soft partisans anyone they want to vote FOR.  And that can offset anti-Democratic sentiment.  So the CO GOP turmoil really helps us.

But don't assume there won't be major ticket-splitting, because there will.  Bennet will underperform Hickenlooper no matter what.  Hopefully not by a lot, and Bennet wins!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 02:41:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The internals are the key in one way

They drive the behavior of the national parties. They're a marketing tool for the candidate in a way -- as a message test:

i.e., "If you give us the money to run ads x, y, and z,"

"we can win" possibly including "with this much to spare"

I'm guessing -- that Maes presented his internals to the RGA -- and they chose to run away.

If the RGA responds by giving money, then Maes will be getting new pollsters.

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by: tietack @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 04:08:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No way

I understand that when an internal is matched against a nonpartisan pollster you should probably trust the nonpartisan pollster, but 9 points? Even though I think Bennet's numbers are probably right (or close to it), I could very easily see Buck leading by 2-3 points. This is way too much.

As for the governor's race, Dan Maes is a nobody, there is no way in hell he could be tied without Tancredo in the race right now.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 02:08:06 AM UTC

Sen. Bennet is out with an ad defining Ken Buck.

Reposted from the last thread since it is more germane here.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 02:54:52 AM UTC

Great Ad

I think that's a truly great ad.  It just hits him on one issue after another, and with a very forceful tone.  I like it.

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by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 04:16:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting ad

Interesting ad you've got there.
burning calories

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by: vincekerr2 @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 08:24:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I didn't click the link

But this account should obviously be expelled for spamming.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 05:05:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pretty good ad

I like the first half of the ad. The last bit though, worry me a bit. I think most people identify as pro-life (independent of actual opinions about abortion), so labeling Ken Buck as the pro-life candidate (even if an extreme one) doesn't strike me as clearly beneficial for Bennet. I don't know Colorado, so maybe the hits re: birth control restriction and extreme pro-life-ness might be beneficial. They just strike me as a bit more divisive than the rest of the ad.

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by: childers_moof @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 04:46:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Viewed nationally...

Colorado is more pro-choice than the nation on average.  Per this SurveyUSA poll from 2005 (the last time they did it), Colorado is 61% pro-choice, and only 34% pro-life, making it one of the more pro-choice states in the country.

And of the 34% who called themselves pro-life, I'm sure that a certain chunk of them would still make exceptions for rape and incest, so it was crucial the Bennet ad played the line where Buck explicitly rejected it even in those cases.

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by: BruinKid @ Fri Aug 27, 2010 at 05:43:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I want to know which common forms of contraception

Buck is opposed to. Morning after pills, I imagine. Anything else?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 05:06:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]