SurveyUSA for KING-TV (8/18-19, likely voters, 4/19-22 in parens):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 45 (42)
Dino Rossi (R): 52 (52)
Undecided: 3 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)
Let's see... we could believe this SurveyUSA poll, which seems to be one of a growing string of west coast outliers for them (leaving them fully 11 points to the right of Rasmussen), or we could believe the poll taken on Tuesday, that had 0% undecideds, 0% leaners, a MoE of 0%, and an n of probably 1.6 million (1 million so far, with only two-third counted). I'm talking, of course, about Washington's Top Two primary, which, because of its unusual all-parties-in-one-pool nature, functions as essentially the most accurate poll you're going to see taken all cycle.
The usual rule of thumb in the Top 2 primary is to project the total Dem and total GOP percentages out toward November. The current individual totals (with only 2/3ds of votes counted, though) are still Patty Murray 46, Dino Rossi 34, Clint Didier 12, but the real story is that the total Dem and GOP votes are essentially 50-49 right now, with a lead of 10,000 for all GOP candidates (Rossi, Didier, Paul Akers, and a whole bunch of anonymous weirdos) over all Dem candidates, out of more than a million votes. So for this SurveyUSA poll to be right:
a) Dino Rossi would have to consolidate every GOP vote behind him -- every Didier vote, every Akers vote, every Norma Gruber vote, and so on -- pick up every vote from every third-party or no-party candidate, pick up every vote for all the other hapless Dems who ran in the primary (including every Goodspaceguy vote and Mike the Mover vote), and then somehow turn around 1% of the electorate who voted for Patty Murray in the primary to vote for him instead,
a1) and that's all presuming that the 46-34-12 percentages don't change, although they most likely will, in a Murray-favorable direction by another percent or two, as the majority (1200 out of 2000) of outstanding precincts still to report are in traditionally slow-to-report King, Pierce, or Snohomish Counties... or
b) the number of Dems participating in November would have to be smaller, rather than bigger, than the number particpating in the primary... despite the fact that Dems had no major incentive to participate in Tuesday's primary, seeing as how there weren't any noteworthy Dem-on-Dem primary battles above the state legislative level, compared with the intensely fought Republican Senate contest in the primary and several others in House races. (In other words, the Democratic share in November is likely to go up from the primary, not down, when it's actually for all the marbles instead of an academic exercise.)
Unlike a lot of SurveyUSA crosstabs, there isn't the frequently-present quirk of young people loving the Republicans (here, the 18-34 set goes for Murray 50-49). Instead, the strangest number is that Murry and Rossi are tied in "metro Seattle" 48-48. That would be approximately true if "metro Seattle" were limited to suburban Pierce and Snohomish Counties (where current counts from Tuesday are 50 all GOP/48 all Dems in Pierce, and 50 all Dems/49 all GOP in Snohomish), but King County (which has a population greater than Pierce + Snohomish combined) is at 60 all Dems/37 all GOP. So, no, they aren't tied in metro Seattle.
Also worth noting: SurveyUSA seemed to misunderestimate Murray's vote share in their pre-primary polls (their last one saw a 41-33-11 primary), despite being close enough to the election to include a number of "actual voters," i.e. those who'd already mailed in ballots. PPP, by contrast, came closer to nailing the primary from several weeks further out (predicting 47-33-10). SurveyUSA's pre-primary sample didn't also include general election matchups (their last general election trendlines are from April), but that same PPP sample that was quite close on the primary also projected a 49-46 race in favor of Murray in November (closely matching Rasmussen's 50-46 win for Murray, with leaners pushed, from this week).
Also, PPP, in their sample several weeks ago, found that Rossi isn't on track to consolidate all Didier and Akers voters; they were planning to go for Rossi by an 82-11 margin. That's even more complicated by what seems to be an increase in tensions between the Rossi and Didier camps in the last few days, rather than any moves toward unity, after Didier gave a list of demands on Friday before he'd endorse Rossi. After Rossi shrugged that off, the Didier camp started dropping f-bombs in response to questions from local politics website Publicola:
Didier's spokeswoman, Kathryn Serkes was more candid with us:
"So is Dino saying, 'Fuck you' to those people [who supported Didier]? 'Fuck you, I don't need your votes? I can win with 33 percent.'"
UPDATE: In my more cynical moments, I think that it could be that this whole conflict was scripted ahead of time, professional wrestling-style, in order to help Rossi burnish his moderate credentials by refusing to be held hostage by the teabagger, as he now has to sprint back to the middle. Somehow, though, it feels like it has that spark of autheniticity. |
