Google Ads


Site Stats

FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Single-Digit Sink, Crist Advantages in General

by: Crisitunity

Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 2:07 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (8/11-16, Florida voters, 7/22-27 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 31 (26)
Bill McCollum (R): 29 (27)
Bud Chiles (I): 12 (14)
Undecided: 21 (27)

Alex Sink (D): 33 (27)
Rick Scott (R): 29 (29)
Bud Chiles (I): 12 (14)
Undecided: 20 (26)
(MoE: ±3%)

All manner of other pollsters have given Alex Sink small leads in the gubernatorial race over the last month, thanks to the bizarre no-holds-barred civil war on the GOP side. Believe it or not, this is the first time that Quinnipiac has joined the rest in giving Sink the lead, despite that they've been one of the Crist-friendliest pollsters this year. Sink's winning mostly just by standing around, smiling, and staying mud-free; she's at 30/15 favorables, compared with 33/43 for McCollum and 28/40 for Scott among the general population.

Jeff Greene (D): 15 (17)
Marco Rubio (R): 32 (32)
Charlie Crist (I): 40 (37)
Undecided: 10 (12)

Kendrick Meek (D): 16 (13)
Marco Rubio (R): 32 (33)
Charlie Crist (I): 39 (39)
Undecided: 10 (14)
(MoE: ±3%)

With the gubernatorial race having gotten so explosive, it's actually gotten easy to forget about the Senate race (which for a brief while was the absolute marquee Senate race). Things have been decidedly low-key lately between Crist and Rubio, while Meek and Greene pound each other in the Dem primary, all to little effect in the general. Crist actually gains a little ground in this sample, more pronouncedly with Jeff Greene as the Dem candidate (although they don't find as wide a disparity in how Crist performs against Greene as against Meek as, say, Mason-Dixon did). With Crist having had the chance to dominate the airwaves acting gubernatorial during the oil spill, he's actually pulled his favorables back above the 50% mark, at 53/33, while Rubio's at 35/28. (Meek is at 24/25, while Greene is pretty much in ruins, at 18/31.)

With the likelihood (seeming apparent to all but Rasmussen) that Crist goes to Washington, questions are getting louder about what he'll do when he gets there. Matt Yglesias raises an interesting (if terrifying) specter of a scenario for 2011, wherein Crist still wouldn't have to pick sides: 49 Democrats (or 48 + Sanders, I presume), 49 Republicans, and then Charlie Crist and Joe Lieberman in the middle, forming their own caucus (the CfL/FLfC Party?) and wielding all the control over organizing the Senate.
Crisitunity :: FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Single-Digit Sink, Crist Advantages in General
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Single-Digit Sink, Crist Advantages in General | 39 comments
I got a feeling
that Crist will know who sent him to Washington and caucus with the Democrats. Then again, the man doesn't have that much principle in terms of his political beliefs...

Still for the Senate to get to 49 Dems, it would have to be a perfect storm. We would lose ND, AR, DE, PA, CO, CA, WI, WA, and IL (plus a Lieberman defection) and we wouldn't pick up NH, NC, MO, KY, or OH. In short, that ain't happening.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

I could only see him going to the GOP
if they already controlled the Senate without him.  Given both the coalition of voters he's putting together, and the extent of the bridges burned between him and the GOP, I don't think it would be a very attractive option otherwise.
[ Parent ]
it COULD happen
But if all of those races fall to the GOP, it's hard to believe that Crist would still beat Rubio, because it would have to be a huge GOP year.
[ Parent ]
forgot NV
That's more likely to fall than CA or WA, though maybe not WI or IL at this point.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
And IN
Which is looking pretty gloomy, though not hopelessly lost.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac has a strong D house effect this year.
Given that D lean of their polls I guess that Crists real lead in the small single digits. I wonder what Rubio has been doing? All this talk about how Crist was going to start shrinking don't seem to be panning out. I think Mason-Dixon is correct that Meek will help Rubio more than Greene would. The post D primary polls are the ones I am eagerly anticipating.  
Gov
Look at that indecision...Still 20 percent undecided. Curious to see where they end up.
Rubio has raised the most money of any SEN candidate this cycle...
And hasn't been on TV since the primary. I think its a tad bit premature to declare it "likely" that Crist goes to Washington. As you noted, the attention in this race is on the DEM side where Meek seems to be pulling away from Greene. African-American voters seem likely to stick with Meek, and national Democrats can't disown him like they could Greene, meaning Meek won't be as marginalized as a candidate like Schlesinger. Combine that with Rubio's inevitable ad onslaught and either (both) candidates attacking Crist, and this race could change easily.
If Meek's a clear loser
with a couple of weeks left in the campaign, I hope he does the right thing and takes the plunge.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
This is a long way from over. Crist might pull it out, but my money is on Rubio and has been since before Crist's collapse in the GOP standings.      
[ Parent ]
Crist has almost double Rubio's cash-on-hand, so that shoots down any notion that Rubio...
...will have more ammunition later.

Crist is in good shape, except that I do now think he might find himself hurt a little more by Meek than previously appeared.  Meek is going to be the Dem nominee after all, and will have a little momentum......the Greene challenge ironically will have helped him.

It's going to be a barnburner, and so much about this year has been so damn unpredictable.  Election night will be a weird night...if we're lucky...if we're not, then it will just be a bloodbath for us in virtually every race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It will be a barnburner
But I certainly don't see a bloodbath in every single race. I haven't seen that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
It will be a barnburner
But I certainly don't see a bloodbath in every single race. I haven't seen that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
It will be a barnburner
But I certainly don't see a bloodbath in every single race. I haven't seen that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Please repeat? I didn't hear you! :-) (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
that Matt Yglesias
suggestion just made me shit a brick.

And am I the only one who thinks Rubio will still win?  The polls say one thing, these polls are also being taken in August.  Is Crist popular enough with the liberal-Jew vote in SoFL because that's where I think things could slide especially in numbers.

I actually had a similar thought regarding the House
What happens if Dems lose enough seats that they only control the house by one or two (very conceivable given where people's predictions are right now), and two of the people who win happen to be Walt Minnick and Bobby Bright. Do they vote for Pelosi as speaker knowing this time, unlike the last time, they will be the deciding vote?  
[ Parent ]
Caucus will have a "do or die" meeting with several members holding all the cards
If the House is down to a 5 member or less majority leadership is going to have to do a hard whip count and then hold serious discussions on who to put up for Speaker. I think Pelosi would step aside if the majority was in peril, but who the consensus candidate would be would be the big question. I mean who would both the liberal and conservative wings agree on for Speaker.

On the Senate side, well Lieberman and Nelson would probably hold all the cards if either or both hold the keys to a majority. Either could extract the Majority Leader's spot hypothetically in such a scenario.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
I can't see your Senate scenario
The Senate being a clubbier place I just can't see that kind of coup taking place.

But the House? Very plausible. If it's something like 219-216 or 220-215 and IF Democrats can prevent a couple outright defections, I would imagine Pelosi would be jettisoned and Steny Hoyer named Speaker. I'm not a Hoyer fan, but it wouldn't be the end of the world, and my impression is that people like Boren, Bright, and Minnick would merely want to take a scalp.  

[ Parent ]
Pelosi loyalist
someone who steps aside should a larger majority be achieved, but with a conservative record to stand on and a long record of experience in the House.

Obvious answer: Chet Edwards.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
2 others
Ike Skelton

John Spratt

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Ugh, not Skelton.
Hoyer, Spratt, and Edwards would be good, but NOT Skelton.  The guy is practically a Dixiecrat.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Maybe my Rep., Rob Andrews could get a leadership position.
He's been there since '90 and he has the ambition.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
To repeat myself for probably the thousandth time
There is simply not a good reason to get rid of Pelosi as Speaker, especially not if Steny Hoyer takes her place

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I agree, but there is if you don't have the votes in caucus
I agree, but if she lacks the votes within the caucus after a hard whip there is no reason to turn over control of the chamber the Republicans.

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
Post-FL Primary
Will Crist be pushed down by primary boosts for Rubio and (presumably) Meek?

If so, lots of people will change their ratings for FL-Sen (again).

[ Parent ]
Rubio maybe, Meek I doubt
I can see Rubio getting a boost coming off his primary win, but Meek seems almost written off at this point. Will anyone care about him winning a primary in which nobody expects him to be anything but the 3rd place finisher and whose ability to shed votes to Crist may be the decisive factor in a race already defined as Rubio v. Crist?

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
Meek will have little money
After the primary. I think Crist's lead has likely shrunk (polling totality) with the focus on the Dems. After next Tuesday the conversation will all be about Crist and Rubio and they both have a lot of CoH. Meek will get lost in the mix and that should help Crist with Dems. Because of all that I give Crist the edge but is still in with a great shout.
[ Parent ]
Why do people always focus on Jewish voters? They are a small number......
They were 5% in the 2008 exit poll.  I don't know how they normally show in midterms, but there's no reason to think they'll be a higher proportion this time around.

Black voters and Hispanic voters are far, far, far bigger groups in Florida than Jews.  And Jews are strongly Democratic enough that any shift by them is a marginal one that translates to an undetectable blip in the total vote shares.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Only problem is
And I hate to say this. Although AA are probally are most loyal voter base, they don't vote in droves like the Jewish comminuty does.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Exactly, Jews turn out
faithfully in basically every election. Especially in Florida where much of the Jewish population is retirees and snowbirds.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
How big of a drop-off do you think AAs and Hispanics get anyways?
Yes, there is a drop-off from presidential elections relative to the broader electorate, but that doesn't change the overall dynamic that blacks and Hispanics greatly outnumber Jews, and changes in their turnout and voting patters will have a much larger impact on a Florida race than on the Jewish vote (except under ridiculous turnout models, there's no way the Jewish vote in Florida makes up anymore than 5% of the electorate).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
They greatly outnumber the jews voting wise
To a point. I'm just saying problem is you can't rely on them for every election like you can with the Jewish. AA's feel they only really need to come out when the WH is on the line.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
...
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Those are the exit polls from Florida for both 2006 and 2008, AAs made up almost the same % of the vote in 2006 as they did in 2008 (actually slightly higher). Jews, for their part, made up the same share of the electorate in both years (4%).

Instead of throwing around stereotypes, why not back it up with real facts.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Hey there not sterotypes
It's real. AA are very loyal to the Democratic Party, probally more loyal than any ethnicity that makes up our core base. But it's rare to see them come out in droves like whites and Jews that's where the sterotype comes from. They been loyal to us since probally the New Deal and I really appreciate that,but there unreliable at times. Of course not as unreliable as the youth vote.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Even if one group is hyper-motivated while the other group is not
4% will never outweigh 14%, no matter how you slice it, the black vote is a lot more important in Florida than the Jewish vote (as is the Hispanic vote, which is largely Cuban and Puerto Rican in Florida and have a much larger share of registered voters than other Hispanics).

It's poor political analysis, and, like I said before (and I stand by it) it's a stereotype (and you still haven't responded to the exit poll data I showed you).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
FWIW...
I think those exit polls ask explicitly for religion, and a large number of Jews don't necessarily identify their religion as such (though in all fairness that's probably more true among the younger generation than among elderly voters). While Jews may be a smaller bloc than AAs/Hispanics, they're still statistically significant.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's silly, black voters will triple Jewish voters this November in Florida, as they ALWAYS DO......
The turnout differential doesn't mean anything when the disparity remains massive, as it does.  The black vote in Florida will be in the double-digits, the Jewish vote in the low-to-mid single digits.  Turnout disparity doesn't change that.

Elections are won on hard numbers, and a group that doesn't have enough of them isn't going to matter as much as groups who have many more.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
32 is Rubios high water mark
His only path to victory was one of the Democrats emerging very triumphantly from the primary, and that just ain't gonna happen.
FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Single-Digit Sink, Crist Advantages in General | 39 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox