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SSP Daily Digest: 8/19 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 8:07 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: The Tea Party Express just threw down another $90K on behalf of Joe Miller (mostly on ad buys), bringing their total spent on the race to $367K. Still, as Lisa Murkowski's fundraising reports show, they still have a pretty sizable gap to make up.
  • CT-Sen: Dick Blumenthal is taking the obvious tack of running against Washington, attacking both TARP (of course) and also the stimulus... but note that his critique of the stimulus is decidedly from the left. Said Blumenthal: "I believe that the stimulus was wrongly structured, because it failed to provide jobs and paychecks to ordinary Americans. It unfortunately was inadequately designed to invest in infrastructure, in roads and bridges and schools."
  • LA-Sen: Chet Traylor, challenging David Vitter in the GOP primary, is apparently putting all of his meager campaign cash (some $50K) into a radio ad directly slamming the incumbent for his, uh, record when it comes to women. Traylor's ad ain't shy.
  • NH-Sen, NH-01: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is coming to New Hampshire on September 27th to do an event for Rep. Paul Hodes's senate campaign and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's re-election campaign.
  • NV-Sen: Another day, another batshit Sharron Angle quote:
  • People have always said - those words, 'too conservative,' is fairly relative. I'm sure that they probably said that about Thomas Jefferson and George Washington and Benjamin Franklin. And truly, when you look at the Constitution and our founding fathers and their writings, the things that made this country great, you might draw those conclusions: That they were conservative. They were fiscally conservative and socially conservative.

    Wait, we've got some more. Back in 1993, Angle (then a member of the Independent American Party) sent a letter to Harry Reid regarding the Clinton budget. Have a look-see:

    I and the majority of my fellow Nevadans are sickened by the passage of the recent huge tax increase bill. With YOUR help the quality of life in America has taken another step into the pit of economic collapse. Clinton's mother-of-all tax packages is the world's biggest tax increase ever. It increases government spending by $300 billion, increases the national debt by $1 trillion, it is retroactive to January 1, and probably the most offensive, it schedules 80 percent of the promised spending cuts to take place after the next Presidential election. What a joke, and not a very funny one at that! ...

    The answer to this mess is clear. STOP FUNDING THE WASTEFUL SOCIAL AND ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS. MAKE THE DIFFICULT CHOICES THAT WILL KEEP OUR COUNTRY STRONG. THAT'S WHAT YOU WERE ELECTED TO DO!

    With her mastery of ALL CAPS, Angle'd make a great comment forum troll.

  • WI-Sen: Wealthy teabagger and presumptive GOP senate nominee Ron Johnson is sounding a bit like Chauncey Gardner, wouldn't you say? In denying the anthropogenic nature of global warming, Johnson says: "It's far more likely that it's just sunspot activity or just something in the geologic eons of time." There will be growth in the spring!
  • CO-Gov: Really excellent and funny first ad from Dem John Hickenlooper - just go check it out. NWOTSOTB, unfortunately. Meanwhile, on the other side(s) of the aisle, CO GOP chair Dick Wadhams put out a statement claiming that Tom Tancredo told him he'd drop out of the gube race if Dan Maes did as well (presumably allowing for them to combine into a better candidate, Voltron-style). Maes told Tancredo to go dangle.
  • OH-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is visiting a Chrysler plant in Toledo on Monday, and afterwards he's going to help raise some bucks for Ted Strickland.
  • AZ-08: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has a new ad up attacking those who have called for a boycott of Arizona on account of SB 1070. You can see the ad here. Neighboring Rep. Raul Grijalva is taking the ad personally, since he was among those calling for "economic sanctions" against his own state. NWOTSOTB, though Grijalva claims the buy "potentially total[s] $350,000." (No idea where he got that figure from.)
  • Meanwhile, in the GOP primary, presumed front-runner Jonathan Paton is airing an ad attacking rival Jesse Kelly for alleged stimulus hypocrisy.

  • FL-25: Wow. GOP candidate David Rivera is one crazy motherf*cker. Back in 2002, while seeking election to the state House of Representatives for the first time, he ran a truck off the road because it was carrying flyers printed for his opponent, in the hopes of preventing it from reaching the post office on time. Man.
  • GA-12: Regina Thomas, who took 42% in her primary challenge to Rep. John Barrow earlier this year, says she wants to run as a write-in this fall. However, it seems like state law would prohibit this, though she's claiming the relevant statute wouldn't apply to her.

  • IN-09: You can't deny that the GOP has done a good job in general with recruitment this cycle. They have a systemic problem, though, which is that their party is fundamentally insane, and so their candidates believe - and say - a lot of fundamentally insane things. Case in point: Republican Todd Young caught on camera deriding Social Security as a "Ponzi scheme." Baron Hill uses Young's words no fewer that four times in a new attack ad that, of course, questions Young's commitment to protecting the program. NWOTSOTB.
  • LA-03: It's not really a surprise that the mouthbreathers running in the Republican primary in Louisiana's 3rd CD are trying to out-crazy each other. ("Repeal the 17th amendment!" "Repeal the 14th amendment!") What is a little interesting is that former state House Speaker Hunt Downer skipped the teabagger-sponsored debate where rivals Jeff Landry and Kristian Magar dueled each other to see who could shred the Constitution the fastest. Both Landry and Downer have raised real money (Magar hasn't) and are probably the main candidates.
  • MA-10: In a cycle where you have a guy like Rick Scott seeking office, it's pretty damn hard to be a contender for Douchebag GOP Candidate of the Year - but Jeffrey Perry is not giving up. Perry is best known for his failings as a police sergeant (he allowed an officer under his supervision to strip-search teenage girls - twice), so it's not a surprise to hear that he abused his powers in yet another way. In sworn deposition testimony, a supervisor said that Perry played "the old red light game,'' in which Perry purposely tripped a red light to catch drivers going through it, "creating motor vehicle violations." Bonus bit of petard-hoisting: The testimony was given in lawsuits brought against Perry by the very girls his subordinate mistreated.
  • NH-02: Dem Annie Kuster is out with her second ad of the campaign, a jobs-related spot. NWOTSOTB, but it's airing "on WMUR-Channel 9 and cable stations across New Hampshire." (WMUR is the one NH-based broadcast channel which covers the whole state.) Primary rival Katrina Swett also has a new ad of her own... and seriously, people, what is with the references to bodily functions in political advertising? First there was Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's pooping kid, now we have an entire ad devoted to bad puns based on Swett's last name? Ick.
  • NY-20: Another upstate Republican challenger speaks out in defense of the Cordoba House... only to quickly backtrack. Much like Richard Hanna, GOPer Chris Gibson put out a statement on Facebook, saying that "churches, synagogues and mosques should be treated the same." After a CNN piece pointed out Gibson's comment, his campaign deleted the post, and then put out a statement saying he opposes the cultural center. God, this whole non-controversy is really sickening to me, and the political spinelessness it's led to is just revolting.
  • NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri just filed 7,300 signatures for his new "NY Moderates" ballot line (he needed 3,500). As we noted when we first mentioned this story, Arcuri doesn't have a second ballot line to run on (he was denied the endorsement of both the Working Families Party and the Independence Party), so this is his attempt to make up ground.
  • OH-16: So of course GOPer Jim Renacci has come out against the Cordoba House (which wags have amusingly dubbed the "Burlington Coat Factory Mosque"). Frosh Rep. John Boccieri had a great response:
  • [If Renacci] wants to run for the zoning commission in New York City, I'll be more than happy to pay his filing fee.

    AND I WILL FUCKING RUN AGAINST HIM! If only it were actually an elected position. (Eh, it's probably a good thing that it isn't.)

  • SC-02: It's Miller Time - finally. Dem Rob Miller, who has a huge pile of cash on hand, is going up with his first ad of the election campaign. The spot (which you can view here) features Miller's fellow Marines describing their commander's leadership during the battle for control of Fallujah. NWOTSOTB. Rep. Joe Wilson also has an ad up, apparently only on cable.
  • TN-06: Lou Ann Zelenik, who trailed Diane Black by just a tiny margin in the GOP primary on election night, has more or less conceded. Interestingly, Black's husband had filed a lawsuit against Zelenik over a TV ad late in the campaign, and Zelenik's statement basically asks Black to drop the case. Though Zelenik says she "congratulates" Black on her victory, I wonder if she's holding out a formal endorsement in exchange for a dismissal.
  • VA-05: Earlier in the digest, I was bemoaning the lack of political courage we've mostly seen in the Cordoba House "debate." Well, I'm not sure if there's a more courageous dude in the House these days than Tom Perriello, who, among other things, unflinchingly keeps attending town halls, no matter how hostile the attendees are. Facing yet another tough crowd, here's how he rose to the occasion:
  • "Let me start by saying, I cannot imagine wanting the government to be able to tell me and my faith community where we can build a house of worship on private property," Perriello said. "... I have opinions on whether it's a good idea or not, but ... compared to the importance of solving the economy right now... this is a distraction of what our biggest priorities should be."

    The crowd overwhelmingly applauded his answer.

    A lot of Democrats could learn a lot from this man.

    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/19 (Morning Edition)
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    Honestly...
    The Republican can have the House but let us keep Tom Perriello. Seriously this guy is awesome in everything he does. David is right Dems can alot from him. Same goes with Alan Grayson.

    CT-Sen. Does anyone thing Blumenthal doing is good attacking the stimulus from the left. I literally don't know that's why i'm asking.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    Tom Perriello
    God bless him. This man deserves to be reelected more than anyone else. Seriously, he's intelligent, likeable, principled, and civilized and he refuses to pussyfoot his way through difficult situations like a lot of his Dem colleagues. I'll go there...he's only a first term Congressman, but he might make a good president one day (keep in mind he's only in his mid 30s).

    As for Blumenthal, I'm disappointed with his assault on TARP. In fact, I'm really disappointed with how trashing TARP has become the cool thing to do for a lot of Democrats. I'll stop there before I go on a policy rant.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


    [ Parent ]
    Don't worry about the policy rant
    If the rules are correct, policy can be talked about here if it has to do with s certain election in this case CT-Sen. As for Blumenthal trashing TARP, yeah it saved the banks from crashing but to the majority of americans thry see it as a endless waste of money. Good example in the MO-Sen poll that showed Robin Carnahan down by 7, PPP polled the voters whatever if they supported the bailout and 61 percent said no. So it's naturally to run againist TARP alot of pols and candidates are doing it. The stimulus, i'm skeptical on that one.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    But the thing I don't get
    is that a lot of Republicans in CT are Chamber of Commerce style Republicans, not tea party nutters. A lot of them are very well educated and only vote Republican because they want rock bottom tax rates. Supporting TARP would actually go down well with these people.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

    [ Parent ]
    Well maybe in CT it's not that unpopular
    Because alot of those type of people live in the area but I can't say the same for the rest of the country. Like I said i'm confused where he's going with this espically with the stimulus.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    His stimulus attack I think is very good
    A lot of what was bemoaned about it was that it had a lot of "crap" in it; people do not understand what weatherizing homes means, they dont get how giving monkey's cocaine creates jobs.  He's saying we should have kept it simply to the meat and potatoes, which is a great way to support it and attack it at the same time.

    And I wont totally disagree with that.  There was no real focus of the bill save for it's price tag, which made it hard for anyone to talk up.  Democrats need to learn the art of bullet points.  (I can certainly come up with bullet points but a regular voter, nope.  Save for causing god damn construction even more so during the summer.  These projects better be done by the election day.)


    [ Parent ]
    Whatever, as long as it works I don't care..
    But I think the stimulus was stated perfectly good.  The money would be used to creat jobs and stimulate the economy and doing it in a viriety of ways such as construction, mass transit, police departments etc. I'll shut up now about that because I feel that if I go on i'll go off the deep end of breaking the rules.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Politics v. Policy
    I too am troubled by what people run on to get elected and policy implications. The point of winning elections is to get the policies we thing will be better for the nation. But how can we get good policy on, say, energy independence if we keep running on public anger about high gas prices?

    I know policy discussions here are limited, but we do discuss brave stances taken by some candidates (see Perriello, for example). If we want the national outcomes we say we do, maybe sometimes we should ask for more leadership on issues rather than caving to popular perception.

    I despise the banker bonuses, but the fact is that TARP probably helped stave off a global economic collapse--never mind that much of TARP has been paid back. And I don't like that Carhahan, Markey (CO-04), and others are attacking it without offering their alternatives. Would they let the banks fail in the next crisis?

    I understand the difficulty on running on unpopular truths. But if politicians are going to cater to public fear (death panels!) or outrage (TARP! High gas prices!), won't that constrain future votes on policy that is supposedly the whole reason for putting these people in office in the first place (and one of the purposes of Swing State Project)?


    [ Parent ]
    Your absolutely right
    How can we impliment good policies that can benefit for years to come if politicans cater to the public fears on the most stupidest things. Yes TARP was good because it kept the banks from collpasing and it has been paid already but the morons who make up our electorate think it was bad and nothing but thr government wasteing their precious taxpayer money. They rather let the banks fail and have us sink deeper into a economic crisis then do something about it because it would involve that mean old government. It's like with the HCR debate with the fuckin death panels and how seniors didn't want the government running their medicare. Despite the fact that THE FUCKING GOVERNMENT WAS THE ONE WHO STARTED AND RUN MEDICARE. I mean my God.

    Your dead on Dsimon.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    As for Perriello
    I'm in complete agreement with you. He's that damn good.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Tom Perriello
    There are too few of his kind on either side at this point.  I wish we had more in the mold of the Burkian ideal that stood for principles and attacked the partisan pandering SOBs for who they are.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    He's one of a kind and we need more like him.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    I hope he stays in politics if he loses
    Hopefully, he'll win. But if he doesn't, hopefully he stays in politics and hopefully the VA Dems will continue to support him - whether he runs for a state legislative seat, runs for his House seat again, or runs for statewide office down the road.  

    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely
    I think he'll win but if he loses there no shame trying to run for something lower than Congress like the VA Legislature like you mentioned. It's people like him we need in office, not sitting on the sidelines if you know what I mean.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree about Periello, but absolutely dislike Grayson)))
    Almost as much as Michelle Bachmann and Sharon Angle. Essentially the same style.

    [ Parent ]
    Greyson is a fireball but he's not crazy
    Like Bachmann and Angle. Those two ladies say things that are questionable and very controversisl while Greyson is a Dem who isn't afraid to tske on the competition. The only things I disagreed with Greyson is when he compared the GOP HCR plan to the Holocaust. That was out of line espically for him since he's Jewish. The diffrence between him and Perriello is that Perriello gets his point across with grace and style. He really does.  

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Again agree on Periello
    and let's disagree on Grayson))) But Periello represents a district with very strong (formerly - segregationsist) tradition (Virginia's Southside), so conservatism is very deep there. I wish him success, but i have serious doubts that he wins in November.

    [ Parent ]
    No Problem.


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    No comparison between Perriello and Grayson
    I shouldn't restart this argument, but I just have to say that I love Tom Perriello - I think he's one of the best congressmen I've seen. I can't stand Grayson. It's not just his holocaust statements - he says things to antagonize, not to enlighten. And to those who say - well, the Democrats need a version of Michelle Bachman I say - why? I'm a Democrat because I think they are the better party amd agree with them on policy issues, but why can't I hope they have better representatives on an emotional level as well?

    I just think to compare Tom Perriello with Alan Grayson is like comparing John Lewis with Al Sharpton.  


    [ Parent ]
    I get where your coming from
    But I respectfully disagree. Grayson is not our Bachmann. Bachmann says thinks that any sane peson would never say in public. She thinks that if you support certain things your un american. She's certify batshit like Palin and Angle.

    Greyson on the other hand is not batshit. He's just a guy who's not afraid. We complain Dems don't have spine but here's a guy with a spine of steel. Sure the holocaust comment was WAY WAY out of line but the man is a fighter and a guy i'm glad to be in my party.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Eh, we'll have to agree to disagree
    And FWIW, plenty of people on this site agree with you.  

    [ Parent ]
    Eh, we'll have to agree to disagree
    Hey that happens. Good to debate with you though.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    You're wrong
       I am not writing about the substance of your arguments but you keep using the possessive "your" to mean the contraction "you're" (you are). Sorry to be so anal-retentive (or is it anal-expulsive?) but that gets on my nerves.

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    I can seeing him pull a squeaker in November
    As polling shows him close with Robert Hurt. I think his constituency service will push him to the top. Plus Hurt isn't doing anyone any favors by ducking a famous debate because he didn't want to debste the teabagger that's also on the ballot. I don't see Hurt as a very strong chsllenger to take down Perriello like that so that's why i'm not too worried about Tom. Plus his constitutency work can be a plus for him in the end.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure.
    Hurt is "normal conservative" (and even relatively sane). In this district, which, as i said, has deeply conservative tradition, this alone can be enough. Especially in as good Republican year as 2010 seems to be.

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe
    Problem is Hurt hasgotten lukewarm support from Republicand and got bad press when he dogged a debate because he didn't want to debate the teabagger who's on the ballot. That shoots him down a peg in my book plus polling down has shown him and Perriello close which is good. I do believe Perriello constitutency services to local issues can put him over the top.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    May be. We will see that soon...


    [ Parent ]
    Less tha 90 days if i'm not mistaken


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    VA-05 is conservative
    but it does have an important liberal base in Charlottesville, home to UVA. So unlike some other conservative districts there are actually liberals in VA-05 who might be motivated by Perriello's courage.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Good news
    Especially if conservatives find Hurt uninspiring -- as others have pointed out, Virginia has no statewide races this November, so Congressional candidates need people to turn out just for them. (Thankfully. If Perriello had to run with the McDonnell-Deeds race at the top of the ticket, he's be screwed.)

    27, Democratic, IL-01

    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of which
    Perriello better cross his fingers and hope that McDonnell doesn't pull the rug from under Democrats in Virginia's state senate, or else Perriello gets screwed for redistricting.

    (BTW, IL-01 represent! I'm not from there but I go to UChicago.)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Hmmm I never thought of that
    Perriello winning but still have to worry about what his district would look like after redistring. Wouldn't suprise me to see McDonnell to do that. It's either gerrymander him or Nye and since Nye is a conservadem and Perriello is the exact oppisite I can see it happen.  

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    this
    Perriello has class, Grayson is a bomb-thrower.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Bombs, maybe
    But unlike the firebreathers on the other side, he generally has the benefit of truth behind them.  That be the difference.  We asked for a steely spine and we got it.

    30, male, Democratic, CO-01

    [ Parent ]
    PA-07
    I understand Bryan Lentz more-or-less is giving the same response -- if the mosque isn't going to create jobs in the 7th District, he doesn't want to waste time talking about it.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't blame him for saying that as well
    Unless your a NYC politican, this isn't going to affect any other olitical whatever it's PA, IL, WY whatever. The Mosque isn't coming to your state so it's a non issue.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Wouldn't quite be willing to go THAT far...
    ...but I'd let them have twenty seats if it meant keeping Periello, Grayson, Shea-Porter, Kagen, and some other good Democrats and if the twenty "losses" were all ConDems.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Well I didn't mean that literally
    I meant they can have a net gain of 20-30 seats if it meant keeping the guys you mentioned and ditching the conservative dems like Dan Boren and John Barrow.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    bodily functions in political advertising? First there was Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's pooping kid, now we have an entire adIck.
    IDK I thought the Herseth-Sandlin ad was kinda cute showing her kid and all. But hey that's just my opinion.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    Ehhh
    Stephanie Herseth Sandin has always been on of my favorite Congress...people. But her total lack of a competitent campaign has really disappointed me. Before, I would have been shocked if she went down. Now, I'm not convinced she survives.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    I really don't know where your going with this
    Because I have seen no proof that she's not running a competant campaign.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    She was dead silent
    Until a few weeks ago. The ads she's run have been either positive ads to tell people "hey, I'm still here", or ads about her kids...doing things that shouldn't be seen in political ads. I've heard no attacks, while her opponent is HAMMERING her on the stump.  

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    She ws probally dead silent until a few weeks ago
    Because it's around this time campaigns shift into GE mode hence the reason why you see Herseth-Sandlin on the air now. Soon you'll see the negative ads probally around the end of the month or so. It's usually after labor day for some odd reason you'll start to see your TV flooded with ads. Thus is the time I advoid my local news afflicates.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Great Rob Miller ad!
    I hope he wins.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    Very unlikely.
    He had his chance in 2008. 2010 is much harder and Wilson is now a "darling" of "hard right", of which there are much more in this district then "left" and "moderates" together

    [ Parent ]
    You would be surprised ...
    ... how many GOPers don't like Wilson, specifically because of his 'You Lie' moment.  Lexington County is moderate in it's leanings.  Given Obama's ratings in SC, it might be a bridge too far to expect Miller to win, but I think he keeps it close enough to fight for another day.      

    [ Parent ]
    Boccieri
    Not as good a response as Perriello's, but quick and to the point.  He's got the right idea, to keep the race local as much as possible and to not waste time on silly stuff that doesn't affect Ohio, or really anybody outside of lower Manhattan.  

    This guy isn't as vocal as Grayson or Periello, but he's a rising star in the Ohio Dem party.  If he gets through this year and the strong challenge from Renacci he's probably good through at least 2014 when he could have gubernatorial or senatorial aspirations depending on how things play out.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    ^^^THIS
    Esically regarding Boccieri's response to Jim Renacci

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen
    Dem internal shows Sestak behind by only two points.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Question is though
    Who to believe? PPP where they hsve him down by nine or the Dem internsl thst has him down by only 2

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Sadly, I see PPP as more likely, Sestak let Toomey define himself as a moderate
    and Sestak as far-left without any response from Sestak

    [ Parent ]
    and Sestak as far-left without any response from Sestak
    Well Sestak did that to himself by coming off as this progressive warrior when he took on Specter. I like to believe the internal but how can you onl down by two when you been non-existant since the primary. I mean what the fuck is he doing?

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not hard to harmonize, just take a step back and realize...
    ...Sestak is down by single digits.  That's all we need to know right now.  It doesn't particularly matter at this stage whether it's 2 or 9, it's the same ballpark this far out.  Voter sentiment is fluid until the election gets closer, and even most midterm election voters are relatively disengaged at this stage.  After all, why do you bother thinking seriously in August about an election that won't happen until early November?  You do that only if you're a higher-interest voter.

    We shouldn't be surprised Sestak is down.  Toomey has been on the air a long time, saturating, and Sestak has been dark.  If anything we should be relieved it took THIS long for Toomey to establish a lead, and that it's still only single digits.  Sestak needs to get his ass in gear.  At least the national party is kicking in with an attack ad now, but we need a lot more time on the air.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    At least the national party is kicking in with an attack ad now, but we need a lot more time on the air.
    Yeah I saw that ad the D-Trip made attacking Toomey with regards to Wall Street. Good ad. But you make alot of good points Cyclone.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Doubt it
    I have as much faith in this poll as I did in the Santorum internals saying Santorum was only 2 down at this point.  Toomey is making this race about the economy and Sestak is not going to have enough cash to redefine it on terms he could win.  This coupled with the political state of affairs and Corbett beating the snot out of Onorato, Toomey wins by high single digits.

    I think we are seeing the beginnings of a localized implosion with these PPP results for the generic ballot in Pennsylvania:

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    I said it yesturday and i'll say it again.
    The generic ballot is unreliable. It's just something to look as a guide. The national generic ballot always had the Dems beating the GOP while they were in Congress and we still lost. It's not something to look at. As for Toomey and Sestak. Toomey is up right now because he's on the air and the only Sestak ads up now are the ones from the D-Trip and there not shown on a regular basis like Toomey's ads. Once Sestak gets on the air and makes the races about the economy and Toomey being too conservative (and that's something he will focus on) the race will tighten and Toomey's 9 pt lead will go away.

    As for PA-Gov, you can't compare the two because no matter what Dem was on the ballot Corbett's going to win I can't see him and Toomey being tied together in this, nor do I see an implosion in PA.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Toomey too conservaitve?
    I really do not buy the argument that Toomey is too conservative for Pennsylvania.  Remember this is the state that elected Santorum twice.  Toomey is definitely to the left of Santorum especially the social issues, which is what sunk Santorum in 2006.  In 1994 and 2000, he ran around the state touting a partial privatization of Social Security, tax cuts, and welfare cuts.  People ate that agenda up like nothing else.  On the other hand, we have the most progressive candidate to run for statewide office except for Joe Hoeffel.  

    Actually I think the Democrats should be more worried about the general repudiation of the Democratic brand in Pennsylvania.  Never in my lifetime have I ever seen a poll in Pennsylvania where Republicans lead the Democrats on the generic ballot.  This coupled with the horrible approval ratings for Obama and Rendell make it a toxic environment.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah Toomey is conservative
    He supports deregulation and dosen't supports deritives. His record as leader of the Club for Growth speaks for itself. Yeah this state elected Rick Santorum twice. The first tine was in the Reublican Revolution of '94 and the 2nd time was because he faced weak opposition. He was too conservative for this state and that's why Bob Casey kicked him to the curb in 2006 by almost 20 points.

    You must not understand me when I say this but the generic ballot is unreliable. Numerous cycles i've seen the Dems lead it in while the GOP was in power and we still lost. It's a guide and not a sure thing. Democrats in PA will be fine. Rendell may be bringing down Dems for sure, that's why Onorato can't beat Corbett because people are tired of Rendell and goes onto Onorato and i've seen Obama's ratings for PA. For everything that's going on there not bad at all, he'll do fine in this state in 2012. The environment in this state is not toxic. Your just blowing this out of porportion. Toomey a moderate, that's a joke man same with saying Obama is toxic for this state.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    The Republican lead is unprecedented...
    The fact that the Republicans lead in the generic ballot is historic and the reason for alarm for Democrats.  Even when the Republicans have done well before, they typically still trail in the congressional generic ballot polling.  Now the gap is obviously less than it is in a great Democratic year, but still.  I am a skeptic of congressional polling.  

    Instead of denying the polls without even acknowledging they are potentially correct, lets accept them for a mere exercise of how bad things might be out there.  In 2006, the Pennsylvania Democrats running for Congress collectively got over 54% while the Republicans got just over 44% with the others getting the rest.  Lets say the Republicans get 49 percent and the Democrats get 49 percent in the fall with the rest splitting the vote.  Even a mere increase in 5 points for the Republicans over 2005 would likely cost the Democrats 4 or 5 seats.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Note the regional differences
    Yes, there are several 'generic ballots' out there, but the only region where Rs have a significant lead at this time is in the South.

    Obviously, the MoE in generic ballots by region is significantly larger.


    [ Parent ]
    Typically yes, but the PPP poll's generic ballot MOE is the same as its other statewide polls.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    But by the end of the day it's still the same
    The generic ballot whatever it's different in states of PPP using a model that can fit every state it's still unreliable and should only be used as a baseline.  

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not an alarm
    Because the generic ballot is nothing but a guide. It's something you take with a grain of salt. When the GOP controlled Congress we led the ballot every cycle and still didn't takeover Congress. Its unreliable and it's no reason for alarm for Democrats.

    I don't blame you for being skeptical of congressional because it's not as easy to poll as polling a statewide race for the reasons we already knew. If Congressional polling was correct Doug Hoffman and Tim Burns would be Congressman right now. I don't believe in PA if the percentage was split 49-49 I don't see any Dems outside of Paul Kanjorski and the PA-7 open seat losing their seats. All of them fo the most part are leaning to victory. I'm sorry but I don't believe your right on this issue.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Angle and trolling
    Sadly, Angle would be one of those people I'd say isn't actually a troll, because she actually believes the kool-aid.

    However, the same cannot be said of other Republican leaders, including McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, Inhofe, and many others.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    Most of your list fits
    But Inhofe?  Nope, there's a true believer, just like his colleague Coburn.

    30, male, Democratic, CO-01

    [ Parent ]
    I thought he was too much of a general asshole to actually believe all of his stuff
    I think he believes some of it, and simply uses some of his equally offensive but less famously obnoxious positions for political gain, but then again, if Poe's Law is to be trusted, no one can really tell anyway.  So you might yet be right.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    I think
    DavidNYC has to be considered the favorite in the NYC Zoning Board race against Jim Renacci. Especially because he probably still has some fundraising contacts from his aborted NY-14 bid.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    He really
    Ran for NY-14?  

    [ Parent ]
    When it was looking like
    Carolyn Maloney would vacate her seat to primary Kirsten Gillibrand, DavidNYC was floated by this blog well-respected New York politicos as a candidate. Unfortunately as Maloney ran for re-election, it was not to be. Perhaps in a future cycle.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Who knew
    that throwing money at bridges and roads made them repair themselves.  Ugh.  Blumenthal... sigh

    Ras poll: Murray ahead 50-46.
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    Rossi may have been a good recruit, but he came in too late and has baggage.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    It's actually a credible number from Rasmussen
    given the totals from the primary.

    [ Parent ]
    Gallup model for generic vote v. seats
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/124...

    It's a good thing to review --

    Gallup's model shows that Democrats could lose the overall 2010 congressional vote and still retain majority-party status. With as little as 51% of the two-party vote, Democrats could expect to hold almost all of their current seats (the model would predict 251 Democratic seats held after the election, with a range of 240 to 262). And with as little as 48% of the vote, Democrats could still reasonably be expected to retain the majority of 218 seats (although they could conceivably still lose the majority at this level, given the model's error range).

    I think it's a reasonable model, given D handicaps based on urban/VRA districts -- and advantages of incumbency.

    In other words, if Gallup is right, D's can retain the majority  in the House even if they're down by 4 (or possibly a bit more) in the generic ballot.

    Obviously, it does not account for candidate quality -- specifically, how the Walt Minnicks can survive in deep red districts, while the Paul Kanjorskis go down in blue districts.


    Interesting
    I am thinking about doing a seat by seat analysis of each Pennsylvania seat going back to 2002 to show what margin statewide for a congressional race equates into seats.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]

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