Crap

I pressed the wrong button. YES and NO should be tied at 2. Anyway, I think Young was a good get for the party and definitely a huge improvement over Sodrel. Considering everyone knows Hill by now, and not many people know Young (I assume) and this race is extremely close NOW and Young is raising goo money, I think he has a very good shot at winning.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 02:26:29 AM UTC

True

He has a very good shot at winning. More so than Sodrel and without a doubt more than Hankins. However you could have gotten a lot better than him. I could rattle a few names off of candidates who are better, that may have even made this a lean R instead of a tossup. Although it is worth pointing out that Young advertised heavily during the primary while Hill has not done anything until his recent walk through the district. It is probably a fifty-fifty race. Sorry though, no take backs on the votes. : )

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 02:35:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It depends if Haaften wins

If he does, I figure there will be one democratic leaning South Indiana district made from Evansville-Bloomington-Terre Haute.  

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 05:41:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Sure

I am no redistricting buff by any means at all but I know Daniels has indicated that he wants Hill gone. I could be wrong but I seem to remember a district similar to what you describe in the nineties. Thing is Hill is from Seymour so he would have to relocate to run in such a district and sixty percent of the district would be territory that does not know him. Who knows, it could happen I suppose. Van Haaften would love that district.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 22:35:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's what I meant

That would get rid of Hill. If Hill wins and Van Haaften loses, the shift will look different.  

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by: jwaalk @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 01:09:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with your take on this

It is going to get really, really negative.  As you know, Sodrel threw everything and the kitchen sink at Hill, and Baron took three of the four rounds.  If it wasn't for the national environment, I'd favor Hill by 15 points.

I also think it's a great idea to walk the district.  It plays up that Baron is about as local to his district as you can get (lifelong resident of Seymour, member of the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame, etc), while Carmel is about as culturally far away from SE Indiana as Haughville is!

You're right he does need to keep his temper in check.  All it would take is another repeat of the, as you call it, Town Hall from Hell.  Unlike Senator Levin, hopefully no one will throw a pie at him!!

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 13:49:26 PM UTC

Gonna be nasty

 This is a rumor, but a fairly well known one. Supposedly Sodrel said a nasty comment of some sort and Hill punched him. Hill denies it valiantly while Sodrel does not talk about it it and only sometimes denies it. Yes I said sometimes, he has flip flopped a lot on it, in public forums he denies it but was really silent about it in a friendly environments. I think it was a Sodrel invention.

It has always been really nasty. Always. I remember going to the county fair and this little old lady handing out a pocket bibles (!!!!!!!!!) with a vote Sodrel message in it. The little old lady gave it to me and said something to the effect "Sodrel actually cares about this while Hill does not". Who fucking puts a political message in a Bible!!! WTF.

The ads are god awful. Both sides, Hill is pretty negative but Sodrel will say anything he thinks helps him. Sodrel never did anything but get born into a rich family. He barely graduated High School and do not ask about College. At least he stands no chance of being my Congressman.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 22:58:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rangel

I can't imagine that many people in SE Indiana care about Charlie Rangel, so if Young makes a big deal about it, it might actually help Hill - in that people will perceive that Young doesn't care about the big issues that really affect them.

Hill is a strong, effective Congressman who has won tough races before, so I predict that he'll hold on and win a close race in November.

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by: ApexNCDem @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 17:21:36 PM UTC

Right.

To be honest, I think the voters of SE Indiana care a lot more about Young's Carmel connection (and the fact that he's from Bloomington) than whether or not some dude from New York they don't care about might've given Hill some money.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 19:43:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I

do not think it will gain much traction but it will not help him. Young would do better attacking Hill over Cap and Trade and HCR.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 22:30:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm feeling pretty good about all of the Indiana House races.

I can't see any way that a snotty brat from Carmel who has a Bloomington home address can convince a primarily rural district that he represents their interests when he's running against a guy who's been doing exactly that for years and has the "us folks" vibe about him. The walking around the district is great - it really gets Hill to connect with the voters in a way that makes Young look aloof and, well, Quayle-ish. Hill is also a lot more involved in community events in his district than are a lot of US Reps. And, as you mention, there are the disgruntled hard-liners on the GOP side who think Young is a pansy and won't support him - not just Hankins but what little remains of Sodrel's base as well. (It'll be interesting to see what Jeffersonville and New Albany in particular look like on election day.)

The GOP's best hope for getting rid of Hill is to redistrict him - especially now that Bayh's pretty much bought the governor's mansion in 2012 and Lugar's running again, too - Hill has nowhere to move up....unless enough of the local Dem establishment gets pissed at Bayh for costing us a safe Senate seat and generally being the slimy Presidential aspirant that he is, in which case Hill could have a clear opening to run as a populist for governor, though I doubt he could overcome Bayh's absurd cash advantage. (Will no one rid me of this turbulent political dynasty?)  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 20:01:55 PM UTC

I

am thinking of doing a Indiana 2012 diary soon. That is going to be an interesting year to say the least. I am not sure if I would support Hill or Bayh in a dem primary. I do not like Bayh much but he would provide a slam dunk win and Hill would be a tossup and Bayh was not the worst Governor in the world. I like Hill though so I would probably vote for him if I thought he could win. I have my doubts Hill would challenge Bayh. I really miss the days of Bayh-O'Bannon, I want them back. They where a hell of a lot better than Daniels, especially O'Bannon. One possibility would be for Hill to run for Gov and drop out before the primary and take Bayh's LG, ala dem primary 88. I am still not convinced that Lugar will run, I am really not. I also have my doubts that he can win a R primary. Hill may run even if Lugar runs hoping that Lugar loses the primary. I have heard that Stutzman is thinking of running whether Lugar does or not. God the thought of Lugar losing to him is revolting. A Hill-Stutzman would be a tossup tilt D while a Hill-Lugar would be likely to safe R. Hell I would even vote for Lugar even though I like Hill.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 22:45:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't

I like Lugar but he is still too conservative for me to vote for with a legitimate Democratic candidate on the ballot. I think Lugar should be appointed Secretary of Defense, opening up the House seat.  

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by: jwaalk @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 01:11:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lugar

would have been a great SoS. He is probably too old but I am still holding out hope that Obama appoints him when Clinton leaves. Per me voting for Lugar, it is not just because he is moderate-ish. I know he is a conservative despite his independence streaks but I really like him for a level of reasons. I have grown up with him, he has great constituent services, he is a genuinely good Senator and most importantly to me I love the guy. I respect him even when he disagrees with my views, and love hearing his reasoning, as it is smart and rarely does it contain a bunch of right wing BS talking points you hear so much. By that I do not mean I agree with his conservatism but rather I like the way he presents his views. If some horrible scandal arose I would consider changing my vote but I do not think I could ever vote against him. I know this may be an odd stance but for me voting against Lugar would be like voting against your grandpa.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 01:36:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your feelings on Dick Lugar

are roughly equivalent to my feelings about George Voinovich.  While I don't always agree with his views politically, he is generally a smart man that has some well thought out positions.  He did a great job as Cleveland's mayor, and then went on to be one of the better governors the state of Ohio has ever had.  

Truthfully, it's a shame he's hanging it up this year, because I'm not too pleased with either of the candidates that are looking to replace him.  You're right hoosier, it is sort of like voting against your grandpa.  Were Fisher running against Voinovich this year I'd be a solid Voinovich vote, even though he's drifted a bit more rightward then I'd like this cycle.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 02:41:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

and that, in essence

is why incumbency matters (see taylor, gene)

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 02:41:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lugar wouldn't take it.

He's completely ruled out being in an Obama administration in much the same way that McCain completely ruled out being Kerry's running mate in 2004 - that whole collegial "I like you as a colleague but you're from the wrong party" thing that Senators do. (Though obviously McCain was also about getting elected.)

And I pretty much agree about Lugar's personal appeal - the grandpa analogy is a good way of putting it. There's just something dignified and agreeable about guys like Lugar from that generation that makes you like them and, in a weird way, look up to them, even if you usually disagree with them politically. (Though considering that both of our Senators had the exact same conservative score in the last session of Congress, I'll take Lugar over the slimy one, and might even bring myself to vote for him depending on the opposition, knowing that he'll never lose in the general.) It was probably the same phenomenon that made people vote for Reagan en masse, though I never had it with him because he was always a fraud to me. Lugar just comes off as authentic somehow, despite having been in Washington longer than any other Indiana Senator in history.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 04:47:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dunno.

Lugar's such an institution in Hoosier politics, I don't think any teabagger would get much traction - it would be seen as mean spirited, at the very least. Sure, someone might try, but it won't happen.

Also, Stutzman's going to be the new Rep from IN-03 by then. If he tries to move up after just one cycle, he'll get a lot of blowback from the less crazy parts of the electorate, all of whom also really like Lugar. We also have no idea what Pence, who's crazy enough to be a teabagger but establishment enough to have a large donor base, is doing - he'd definitely be PO'd if Stutzman tried to steal his thunder seeing as how he's acknowledged as "next" in line.

I would like Bayh better as a Governor, but I have such a bad taste in my mouth from Bayh as Senator that I can't support him totally without complaint, especially given the jackass way that he quit the Senate in a bad cycle so that he could build up Vice Presidential street cred, despite the fact that he'll never get past the shortlist and on to a ticket (much less a winning one) because he's just too damn boring, and represents a state that Democrats take for granted as being solidly Republican (even after 2008).  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 04:37:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd probably vote for Lugar, too

He's pretty much one of only two Republicans I would support for statewide office if I lived in a different state (the other being John Huntsman in Utah). I'll always want a Democratic majority, but I also think it's necessary to have a responsible opposition to keep the ruling party on its feet. A Republican party where Lugar/John Warner/Chuck Hagel/Alan Simpson still had influence could make that possible. Sadly, the current incarnation of the GOP has proven they do not deserve any role in policy formulation. I think it's crucial that any sane Republican legislators retain power to beat back the tea party's hijacking of the GOP.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

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by: LennyLiberal @ Thu Aug 19, 2010 at 12:58:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's interesting to read all of this

since, outside of foreign policy and things like Supreme Court confirmation votes, Lugar has seemed - correct me if I'm wrong - a knee-jerk vote against all Democratic domestic legislation since Obama was inaugurated. Is this a case of an elder statesman being given more credit for moderate speech and a previous record of bipartisanship than for currently immoderate votes?

Anyway, I'm glad to read this diary. During the 2 weeks I was away in the United Kingdom, things seem to have worsened politically for the Democrats, so I'll take all the reasonable hope I can get.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 17:12:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes...

You're right, he generally doesn't vote with Democrats on domestic priorities. I don't, however, think that knee-jerk is an appropriate adjective since it implies he doesn't give legitimate consideration to issues. If he really believed a Democratic domestic initiative was in the best interests of the country, I think he would vote for it, unlike basically every other Republican in Congress.

The reason why I would vote for Lugar is because I believe in a fair, principled, and levelheaded opposition, which is necessary for a successful democracy. Lugar brings those qualities to a Republican party that otherwise lacks any sense of rationality. It's important that he's around to represent the shrinking faction of Republicans who care for more than petty obstructionism and radicalizing politics.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

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by: LennyLiberal @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 18:00:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I haven't taken a look at Lugar's recent voting pattern

I know that on most 'big' votes, excepting SCOTUS noms and the like, Lugar has been (generally) a pretty reliable 'no' vote for the Republicans. It's a stretch to say he's been against 'all' of our domestic legislation, though. I recall him supporting the Matt Shepard Act last year, and he can be brought in on other votes every once in a while.

I don't think most Hoosier Democrats, even ones like myself (and apparently most of the other Indiana SSP contingent) that like Lugar a lot, would call him a moderate. He really isn't. But he is moderate in relation to what his party as a whole has become. He's what Lindsey Graham likes to claim to be.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 18:41:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

He is pretty conservative despite his independence streaks and I understand that. Like I have said previously I like Lugar for other reasons.

But he is moderate in relation to what his party as a whole has become.

Bingo. I can not say it any better at all. Anymore if you vote yes every once in a while or have the nerve to call the far right out on something just occasionally then you are a moderate or even a RINO.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 19:47:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I prefer a Democrat

If you're a Democrat, don't you have to keep in mind that it takes 60 votes to get cloture under persistent Senate rules the public has very little control over, and that Lugar is - again, correct me if I'm wrong - a consistent vote to filibuster the great majority of domestic Democratic initiatives under President Obama? In other words, if it ever made sense for a Democrat to support a Republican for Federal office (and I think it did), does it still make sense, or does it actually result in obstructing changes you advocate?

I think the situation is somewhat different for Republicans when considering whether to support incumbent Democrats such as Bobby Bright, because they actually vote with the Republicans quite a lot. Very few if any Republicans currently in the Federal Legislature are comparable, but the senators from Maine are at least somewhat analogous.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 20:05:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Like

I have said it is really not the fact he has a few independent streaks. I like him a lot on a personal level. I really do. I have grew up with Dick Lugar. I can honestly say he is a good Senator, and I thought he was a great foreign relations chair. He has great constituent services, I remember my father helping plan my school trip to DC and Lugar's office was great about it. He met with us and personally gave us a tour, not just his staff. I enjoy hearing his reasoning in terms of his voting no. Although he is usually pretty reasonable for a conservative from a red state, I remember him voting against some hyped up NRA bill written by Thune while Bayh voted for it. He provides a lot of reasons that I firmly disagree with but I still love hearing him debate. He is powerful and great Senator. He is conservative I do not deny it. However you also have to look at Indiana Republicans, for the most part they are not moderates at all, they are very far to the right. More so than Lugar anyways. Like I said above it would feel like voting against my grandfather. Maybe I'm crazy but I would vote for Lugar under most circumstances.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 20:54:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops

I have GROWN up with Dick Lugar.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 20:55:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's a good point

And despite my respect for Lugar, I can't say I'd vote for him over some of the candidates we might possibly run against him, primarily due to the role he does indeed play as a fairly frequent member of the Republican filibuster bloc. I'd probably vote for Hill against Lugar, and possibly Ellsworth. But I'd have to think about it if anyone else on our Federal-level bench ran, and I'd definitely favor Lugar over Visclosky.

For me, personally, I also have to factor in Lugar's strong role on nuclear nonproliferation, which is a pet issue of mine. There's also things like gun control, where probably any Democrat that could somehow defeat Lugar would actually probably be to his right.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 21:53:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You mention Visclosky

Haven't there been some allegations that he's been involved with some kind of corruption? Any fire there? Because that's the one issue that would cause me to favor a Republican: If the Republican is of unimpeachable rectitude in terms of public morality and the Democrat is corrupt.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 21:57:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't say that Visclosky "is" corrupt

But there is a hell of a lot of smoke there. He was involved in that ruckus about the PMA Group (one of the main sources of corruption accusations against the late John Murtha). Basically the allegations come down to Visclosky receiving a pretty large amount of donations from PMA employees, and then coincidentally enough helping to push through earmarks that provided millions of dollars in contracts to PMA. He's been 'cleared' by the Ethics Committee, but it leaves a sour enough taste in my mouth that I'd have no qualms about supporting Lugar. Which is too bad, actually, because Visclosky is fairly liberal.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 22:07:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I definitely understand your thinking on this

and might make the same decision.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 23:13:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And, sad to say, by standards of the Region,

Visclosky is pretty clean.  The Reg must have just about as corrupt a politics as anywhere in the country.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Sat Aug 21, 2010 at 00:30:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

off-topic to hoosierdem

IA-Gov GOP candidate Terry Branstad wants to scrap Iowa's Dept of Economic Development in favor of a public/private partnership similar to what (he claims) works well in Indiana. Do you have any thoughts/links about how that system works, and if so, could you e-mail me (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com)? Sounds to me like letting business capture government functions and dole out corporate welfare.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Aug 21, 2010 at 22:42:51 PM UTC

I

will not pretend to be an expert on the issue but will give you the best advice I can think of. It is basically a political organization used mainly for Daniels to get good press. The link I provide shows a lot of it is just over inflating numbers to look good. The link also provides a lot of good material I think. That is all I know to tell you, perhaps some of my fellow SSP hoosiers would be able to give you some advice. Also try the blog Blue Indiana, I am sure you can find some articles there, and some users could give you more useful info. Sorry I can't be of more help.

http://www.wthr.com/global/Sto...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Sun Aug 22, 2010 at 04:49:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks for that link

That seems to be the pattern in other states too.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sun Aug 22, 2010 at 19:27:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]