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SSP Daily Digest: 8/17 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Aug 17, 2010 at 8:13 AM EDT


  • AZ-Sen: Here's an internal poll from a few days ago that we missed: Randy Parraz, running in the Dem primary, commissioned a one-day robopoll by a firm called Winning Connections. It found Rodney Glassman in the lead with 20, Parraz at 17, John Dougherty at 11, and Cathy Eden at 8. Forty-four percent are undecided. Glassman went up on the air with his first ad last week, touting his endorsement from the Arizona Republic and his military credentials. Parraz is also now on the air, with ads in both English and Spanish, talking about his fight against SB 1070 and the notorious Sherriff Joe Arpaio. NWOTSOTB for either campaign.
  • Meanwhile, John McCain has some boring new 60-second positive spot out - like he really needs to introduce himself to Arizona voters? As CQ says, "the tone and content of this spot send the message that McCain is a politician who doesn't have to look over his shoulder to see if anybody's gaining on him." NWOTSOTB.

  • FL-Sen: Nancy Pelosi's recorded a robocall for Kendrick Meek (not a surprise), and for Jeff Greene, it's Star Jones to the rescue. Yeah, I'm scratching my head about that one, too.
  • KY-Sen: Countless law enforcement officials (police and prosecutors alike) are hammering Rand Paul for his claim that drugs are not "a real pressing issue" in Kentucky. Apparently, things in the real world are a little different than in retard libertarian fantasy land, where Paul is married to Ayn Rand and their son Alan Greenspan just received 500 shares of Taggart Transcontinental stock for his bar mitzvah. Anyhow, at least in part because of all this, the statewide Fraternal Order of Police just endorsed Conway, who promises to hit Rand hard.
  • NV-Sen: Harry Reid has a new ad out (NWOTSOTB) hitting Angle for her support of SSP - the bad kind of SSP, of course (Social Security privatization). Sad to see Reid acting like such a pathetic coward on the issue of the Cordoba House, though - not that I really expect better from him, though.
  • CO-Gov: Hahah! This is going to be a laugh riot. Republican gubernatorial nominee (weird to type out, as Colorado Pols notes) Dan Maes has to pick a... lol... running mate by tomorrow evening. This could produce the funniest ticket matchup since H. Ross Perot tapped Admiral Stockdale twenty years ago. Anyhow, Colorado Pols has some good suggestions for Maes, including one state senator who is opposed to telecommuting (I fucking wish I were kidding) - perfect, because Maes is freaked out by bicycle commuters.
  • FL-Gov: Freakazoid Lex Luthor clone Rick Scott has emerged from his Fortress of Squalitude with a new 30-second spot designed to heal divisions in this country and promote greater tolerance and understanding. Oh, please don't tell me you believed that for a second, did you? Scott's ad, cutely titled "Obama's Mosque," is a scum-drenched attempt to fearmonger his way to victory in the gubernatorial primary.
  • Meanwhile, Alex Sink is reportedly set to tap former prosecutor and state Sen. Rod Smith as her running mate. Smith himself unsuccessfully sought the Dem gube nod in 2006. Click the link for more background on him and how the pick went down.

  • MN-Gov: The Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a Dem-backed group, is hammering GOP nominee Tom Emmer for all the votes he's missed in the state legislature. There's some serious muscle behind this ad, too - it's a half-million dollar buy for the next two weeks. (Props to the Star Tribune's Baird Helgeson for reporting that info.)
  • AZ-05: I'm a huge Deadwood fan, and one of my favorite all-time lines is of course uttered by Al Swearengen, who says: "Announcing your plans is a good way to hear God laugh." Cue this story:
  • Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is essentially declaring victory in the District 5 GOP primary, and said he is cutting his advertising budget for the final two weeks of the campaign because he is so confident in victory that he wants to save his money for the general election match-up with incumbent Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell. His main opponents, businessman Jim Ward and former Scottsdale City Councilwoman Susan Bitter Smith, say the race is still up for grabs.

  • CO-04: Though outside groups have been up on the airwaves for a while, Rep. Betsy Markey is now out with her first ad of her own, an anti-TARP spot which calls bailouts "offensive." NWOTSOTB.
  • GA-02: Republican Mike Keown is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies which purports to show Rep. Sanford Bishop up just 50-44.
  • NJ-03: This is the sort of grumpy whining you expect from newcomer pols who don't understand that politics - still - ain't beanbag. Still, it's a little surprising to see former NFL players act like such weenies. Anyhow, John Runyan is moaning because he's sure that Dem Rep. John Adler is responsible for indie teabagger Peter DeStefano's candidacy. Runyan's team couldn't knock DeStefano off the ballot on account of his petitions, so now they are "considering a lawsuit alleging that those who signed may not have known that DeStefano was unaffiliated with a formal tea-party group." Uh, is that even a cognizable legal argument? Good luck with that.
  • NY-14: I guess Reshma Saujani missed the day they taught "Not Fucking Up" at First-Time Candidate School. Saujani put out a statement decrying Carolyn Maloney's supposed "silence" on the Cordoba House. Yeah, you saw this one coming: Maloney put out a statement in support of the project almost two weeks ago. Better luck next time!
  • NY-State Sen: Good news: A poll from a group called the New Roosevelt Initiative (taken by Red Horse Strategies) shows scumbag state senator Pedro Espada - you know, the guy who led the ill-fated coup last year to hand control back to the Republicans - tied with progressive activist Gustavo Rivera at 32% apiece in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately, as Albany Project writer Roatti notes, there's a third candidate in the race, Daniel Padernacht, who may be unintentionally offering Espada a lifeline by splitting the anti-incumbent vote.
  • DCCC: We mentioned this fundraiser a little while back (see Amazing Daily Digest, Issue #88!), but now we have the goods: President Obama raised a cool million for the D-Trip at a star-studded Hollywood fundraiser, featuring the likes of Steven Spielberg and Barbara Streisand.
  • Polltopia: Blargh. PPP has switched to a full-bore likely voter model, and the results ain't pretty for Team Blue. Go read Tom's post for the full details.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/17 (Morning Edition)
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    Harry's never been a profile in courage
    But, then again, neither are most politicians.  So, I can't be too hard on him.

    Very bad move
    He needs to coalesce his base around him.  This move will hurt his support.

    [ Parent ]
    So
    Would you rather have him airing ads attacking Angle for being too extreme them being about him like what the ads seems to be? If that's what's your going with i'm inclined to agree.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Angle
    I'd like to see Reid attacking Angle for not getting her facts straight. I have on my desk a fundraising letter from her campaign (I have no idea how I wound up on her list) claiming TARP as a "far left" policy of "Barak Obama and Harry Reid." Never mind that Bush was in office, and it passed the Senate with large bipartisan support 74-25 with 34 Republican senators (including McConnell) voting yes. http://www.senate.gov/legislat...

    Then again, such an attack would imply that Reid supported TARP (which he did), which is not a popular position these days, even though it appears to in fact have worked and no one proposed a better emergency alternative. Somehow, saying "Angle would have let everything collapse and we'd be in disaster mode now as a result" doesn't resonate. But it would be nice if candidates could get easily provable facts straight and pay some price if they don't.


    [ Parent ]
    SO many people confuse TARP (Bush) with the Stimulus (Obama)
    And they really aren't all that alike: one was a bank bailout, the other a multi-purpose spending bill that tried to revive the economy. But average citizens do confuse the two since they both fired up a lot of grassroots anger.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I don't see the confusion
    Because of what you said, there not alike. One was to bailout the banks, the other was to bailout the economy. There's a huge difference that I don't get what the american people don't get.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Neither do I
    A lot of it is the influence of the Tea Party, I think.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    You Got It.


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    No Excuse For Angle
    I can understand why many people get TARP and the stimulus mixed up. But not people running campaigns. They should have no excuse.

    And the Angle mailing names both TARP and the "stimulus" (which she puts in scare quotes) as Obama-Reid policies, so it's not as if they don't realize they're separate initiatives.

    Again, I just want politicians to pay some kind of price for not getting basic facts straight. If they can't get these things right, the public certainly won't.


    [ Parent ]
    More Americans think Obama was behind TARP than Bush
    Only a third of Americans (34%) correctly say the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was enacted by the Bush administration. Nearly half (47%) incorrectly believe TARP was passed under President Obama.

    http://pewresearch.org/databan...

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    That just proves how dumb the electorate is
    Anyone know it was Bush that enacted TARP. It was a few months before the election when Lehman Brothers collpased that this was enacted. This isn't a secret. It was the President who enacted the stimulus and that's not s secret either.

    I'll repeat it again

    Bush = TARP
    Obama = Stimulus.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Again, What's Angle's Excuse?
    I know about that poll. But the question is why the campaign for a major political office can't get the basic facts right, and can they be made to pay a price for it?

    Again, what's Angle's excuse for being wrong? Is the campaign playing off of populist anger against TARP? Or are they really that clueless? Is the populist anger too great to point out that Republicans supported TARP--and that it actually did what it was supposed to do, and that a lot of it got paid back?

    I know most people don't vote on facts, but I wonder how hard anyone tries to make them matter anymore.


    [ Parent ]
    BTW
    What the fuck is the Cordoba House that David is so pissed off and angry about? Care to share David?

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    It's the proposed Mosque near 9/11 ground zero
    My question is why did Reid say anything about it, drawing attention away from Angle.

    [ Parent ]
    Okay
    Didn't know that's what they were calling the Mosque that may be built near the 9/11 site. So basically Reid should shut up about shit like that and keep his campaign on Angle because making comments regarding the site will take away from his campaign and could set him up for trouble. Yes?

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    It's no a mosque


    [ Parent ]
    Then what is it?


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    A community center
    With an area for prayer.

    It's not the second Dome of the Rock with a statue of bin laden on the top.


    [ Parent ]
    Yep
     There is a culinary school and a basketball court there.  

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    [ Parent ]
    That dosen't sound bad at all
    How everyone talks you think it be a breeding ground for terrorists.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Unfortunately ....
    ... I'm afraid Islamo-phobia really politically sells.  I've talked with/listened to some people I know, and I know to be quite liberally minded/tolerant when it comes to a wide range of things, really developing a hardening anti-Islamic mindset.  I'm afraid this is going to be a political minefield for at least the present/near future (and maybe longer), where especially people on the left may be forced to politically step very carefully.

    [ Parent ]
    Sadly your right
    I mean you bring up how Muslim phobia politically sells. It does look what it did to Bush and the GOP in '02 and '04. All they had to do was say "9/11" and "Soft on Terrorists" and that would buy votes. I don't think this is a bad idea what there doing, but yes thread lightly.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    It's kind of funny
    You guys are exactly like the Dutch and French liberals in the 70s and 80s.

    It's all ahead of ya!


    [ Parent ]
    Swings and roundabouts
    No such thing as a permanent majority.

    [ Parent ]
    It has a indoor swimming pool
    To prepare for the Islamic nautical invasion of Fort Lee.

    [ Parent ]
    Nah, if it's downtown
    then it's probably for the nautical invasion of Jersey City.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    Because she released a statement
    Attacking him on it. IMO he managed the situation as well as he could. Reid has to make his race about Angle or he loses.

    [ Parent ]
    Base
    You'd be hard pressed to count on one hand those who won't vote for Reid against Angle because of this stance.  

    [ Parent ]
    True
    I guess well have to see what effect this will have when the next poll because I think you'll agree that Reid should keep his mouth shut on anything controversial and keep focusing on Angle. After all, that is what brought him back from the political dead.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    If anything, this will help him
    Sadly.

    [ Parent ]
    What will help him?
    Attacking Angle. That's what brought him back from the dead.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    No. Muslim bashing


    [ Parent ]
    Well I don't know about that
    Anything regarding the Muslim faith is very senitive and I would avoid it.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Famous Last Words
    There are always hardliners out there ready to ditch Reid over a mistake like this and not care a bit about Angle getting elected.

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe they should rethink that comment
    Before jumpion to conclusions.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    FL-Sen: Star Jones?
    That one came out of nowhere. I'm not sure what good Star can do a candidate.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    Thats exactly what i'm thinking
    Meek got the Speaker and the former President on his side while Greene has.....Star Jones. Yeah huge endorsement lol.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Fine
    I have come to the conclusion to let the people have the GOP run Congress again. Let's see how much work towards you get done. Very very little. And shame on you Democrats for not getting off your lazy asses and not voting. You'll come out in '12 but not when it's really alot. Says alot about our party voters.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely Disagree
    While I understand your sentiment, and am very frustrated too, I look at this way -- you get involved in politics not to tally up wins and losses, but to impact public policy.  You impact public policy by governing.  I don't think anyone can make a case that a more progressive agenda can be pushed, in the long or short run, if the Democrats lose the House or Senate this fall.  President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and Majority Leader Reid have been far from perfect, but all are a hell of a lot better than the alternatives.  So while I'm worried about the fall elections, I'm still ready to fight to keep Congress.

    [ Parent ]
    They are better than the alternatives
    MUCH BETTER. But how can I continue to fight when my state is ready to vote in an extremeist like Toomey over a good guy like Sestak. They want the GOP to take over and have John Boehner to run the government because we can't clean up the job fast enough. I'm done with fighting. I'll vote but don't expect me to campaign because right now, i'm ashamed of my party voters. You'll come ou for Obama in '12 but when the job needs work you stay home. How can I be excited with party voters like that.

    It's going to be pure hell on here the next few months with Tek, Andy and the Republicans gloating.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm in PA right now, too
    And I'm also disappointed with how a number of party leaders have behaved recently and the apathy expressed by Democratic voters. But this whole mosque situation has reinforced how dangerous Republicans would be for this country; I'm not ready for the GOP to drag us back into the 11th century. I'll admit I'm a bit more motivated to get active because of the shitiness of the GOP, but that's enough to get me into the streets for Joe Sestak. I suggest you give it a shot, too, because the stakes are too high.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

    [ Parent ]
    Hey i'm not fully giving up
    I'll be thee on election day pushing the button for Sestak. I know the stakes are high, have Boehner and McConnell running Congress is very dangerous just like how it was for 12 years when the GOP ran Congress espically after Bush talked over. But how can I stay motivated with PPP going Rasmussen on their model and my counterparts, the Democratic voters are lazy and won't get off their asses because they feel that because they elected Obama there job is done and won't be needed until 2012. THAT'S ONLY HALF THE WORK MORONS. You also need a Congress that supports his agenda. Electing in John Boehner won't help that. In fact this could cause the biggest gridlock in Congress since the first Congress the GOP had the majority when the federal government got shut down.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Impacting policy
    People shouldn't forget that. I would argue this Congress achieved a lot despite the whining from some on our side. It isn't the end of the world if the Republicans take control especially since it won't be with numbers that enables them to change any of the things Democrats did.

    The United States survived 8 years of George W. Bush and 12 years of a GOP Congress. If push comes to shove and the worst actually happens (I still don't think it will) then we regroup and go again.


    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    You all keep saying that they worst the GOP will do is block things. We can't end abortion, we can't undo health care or stimulus or anything. We won't increase spending on things or do you like for the duration of our control. We can't be pro-active. No permanant change will come.

    Contrast that to 4 years of Dem control. Look at HCR alone. You've fundamentally reshaped the Health care system of the United States probably forever. We can stop y'all going further but not forever. America is on one long slide to the left, you guys just can't see it.


    [ Parent ]
    Giving up?
    You're giving up in August?

    [ Parent ]
    With Toomey up by nine
    PPP changing their model and the Dem voters not getting off their lazy asses yeah I am. Why should I stay in if no one else in my party will? Answer me that?

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Gimme a break
    It's August, for crying out loud.  Much can change, but only if Sestak's group makes the effort for it.  I really hope that most Dem voters in PA don't have your attitude.

    [ Parent ]
    If they had my attitude
    We wouldn't be losing 30 seats and Sestak wouldbe winning bu they don't and that's why Toomey is bu by 9. Sorry But i'm giving up. How can I stay motivated if PPP goes Rasmussen on their polling and the extremeist Pat Toomey has a nine point lead and Dem voters refuse to get off their asses unless the President is on the ballot. I lost hope and respect for my fellow voters and I have a felling with all this, this place will become very painful with the news, the snarky titles and analysis by James and David and the Comments by people like Tek, who I feel well see more often as the election gets close.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    45-36
    Is very different to 49-40. Lots of undecideds. Keep the faith Daylin.

    [ Parent ]
    In proper context, 45-36 is still very troubling because...
    ...Toomey has been on the air a bunch for a long time, and Sestak has been dark.  Indeed, the only confidence I have in this one is that it actually took a long time for Toomey's ads to have an effect, much longer than it normally takes.  That reflects the general electorate's resistance to campaigning, which I've argued exists as juxtaposed against the rapid and massive movement in primary poll numbers where people like Whitman and Fiorina and Scott and Greene just saturate the airwaves.

    But the general electorate responds eventually, and only the squeaky wheel gets the oil.  Toomey is squeaking, and Sestak is silent.  That's bad for us, as Sestak's eventual ad buys also likely won't work right away, and he'll have less time to make up lost ground.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    It is August
    Remember how badly Corzine was down this time last year and how close he got in the end? And that was with awful job approval ratings which lots of Democrats running across the country don't have to deal with. I agree it is troubling but I was merely pointing out that all is not lost.

    [ Parent ]
    Everyone in Pennsylvania knows Toomey

    from his previous statewide campaigns and the state's generic partisan split is 45% R, 55% D.  So I don't his getting 45% support as terribly surprising.

    Republican candidates by and large are polling at their state's or district's generic Republican vote percentage.  In short, the Undecideds are practically all Democratic leaners.

    I read the general pattern as average people feeling it's time for a break, that the lots of fixing-up type changes passed and the very conventional process of doing it is exhausting.  We've largely reached the place where more small bore institutional fix-up bills aren't really productive and just amount to aggravation and process for the sake of process and pretense of productivity.  

    On the Right and among hardcore Left/Liberals there is the realization that the next serious steps reforming institutions and industries take us across the line to social democracy.  For the Right that manifests into the form of the teabaggers and the corporatist Party of No.  For hardcore Democrats it manifests as impatience and upset with the politicians balking at crossing that line.  Notably the ever smaller measures and passivity of the center Leftist and conservative and industry-captured Democrats.  These are willing to creep up to the line but not cross it, or even show willingness to pull back from it.

    But the country probably would go into a nasty calamity if the unemployment benefits extensions and other financial bailout bills don't get passed while the recession drags on.  That's where Democrats have an argument that should keep them in a slight majority in both chambers.

    But the truth of the matter is, I believe, that there isn't a national majority yet for crossing that line to social democracy.  People will vote or abstain from voting in effect to achieve full Republican obstruction of all further reform bills.  Which is to say that I think 41 hardline Republican Senators are very likely going to happen.  Ben Nelson, Snowe, Collins, and Brown are going to lose the power to allow some reform measures to pass.  But I'm confident that voters won't give Republicans the political initiative, i.e. chamber majorities, this election.  That would be a mandate to roll back reforms made in the past two years, which I don't believe exists or will exist.  2012 might see a chamber lost them, though.


    [ Parent ]
    You could argue a mandate
    But they won't have the numbers to actually do it.

    [ Parent ]
    I challenge your opening statement regarding Toomey......
    How many statewide campaigns has he run?  He lost the Senate primary to Specter in 2004, and I don't know of any other statewide runs by him before this cycle.  Losing a primary doesn't get you any name recognition with a general electorate 6 years later.  I don't think he's very familiar at all to most voters, likely no more familiar than Sestak.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Toomey up by 9
    I'm asahmed to be a PA voters with that poll and shame on PPP with going for a more Republican voter model. Don't know where you will be going with this but I have a feeling with PPP going Rasmussen on their model, this place is going to be pure pain to come to anymore. Sorry for the rant but i'm pissed off at all this. With the conservative voter models, Tea Baggers, Lazy voters. Toomey and Paul becoming Senators. This makes me all sick.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Likely voter model
    They need to tell the truth not provide comfort blankets. Then again it only moves the needle slightly from a +7 Dem electorate in 2008 to a +2 in this poll.

    [ Parent ]
    Biggest surprise for me is the Obama numbers (40/55)
    Until this point Obama's approval in PA has usually been in the negative mid-single digits. The -15 may mean this is an overly conservative sample, but if it's true it spells trouble for a lot of the House incumbents.

    The other thing I noticed is that Obama's numbers have caught up with HCR's numbers, which have usually been a few points more negative (some people like the president but don't like the new law.) I wonder if this is statistical noise or Republican success at making HCR the defining issue of the Obama presidency to this point.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    No your wrong
    Yes the sample may be over conservative but I don't believe it spells trouble for House incumbents. As for HCR. I'll say it once and I say it again passing HCR was a good thing not a bad thing. The laws in placed were denying tons of people coverage, including my mom, who can't find health insurance because of her chronic back problem. Now she's able to get because of the new law. This defines his Preaidency in a good way not a bad way. No sir this was not GOP success.


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    I refuse to debate the merits of the policy itself
    But from a purely electoral standpoint, the Democrats need to get more stories like yours out there if they're going to turn things around before November. Right now the numbers are upside-down on HCR in most places, and a lot of that is due to successful GOP branding, talking-points, and the like. If HCR is a good law (and I won't comment on whether it is), Democrats need to do a better job of explaining its benefits to help people like Sestak at the ballot box

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I'll comment on it
    It's a good law, but yes to need to define the new law better to help Dems like Sestak. I'll just say that because like you I don't want to be banned by going off topic.  

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    how long before...
    We hear that all of the RePPPublican polls are no good.  Scotty Ras is looking better and better.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't get snarky, we don't need that
    I wouldn't be complaining if Jensen wouldn't change the voter model. But i'll say it again, don't get snarky. That's not needed here right now.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Bizarre comment
    Republican House effect or no, PPP's sympathies lie with Team Blue.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Considering
    PPP is a Dem pollster and they are considered one of the best in the nation, I think you are way off.  

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    Even though I disagree with them on changing their voter model. I still trust them and consider thrm the best in the polling business, espically Jensen with his analysis.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    kick in the pants
    I hope that this poll will provide a kick in the pants for Sestak to get his act together.

    [ Parent ]
    Sestak's still running for Senate?
    With his absolute silence in PA lately, I almost forgot he was the candidate.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Hmmm I thought the same thing
    Every day I see a ad on TV from Toomey. How may from Sestsk: ZERO. I think that has alot to do with Toomey's 9 pt lead. He's on the air defining his opponent getting his name across while Sestak has done shit. You better get your ass out there and work Joe. You wanted to be Senator bad. NOW WORK FOR IT!!!

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Sestak's using the strategy he used against Specter
    Look for an ad bomb in mid-September.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Earlier
    He needs to move up earlier.  He shouldn't let the polls get this far down.

    [ Parent ]
    Hey, I agree with you
    But he figures, if it worked once, it should work again.

    Problem is, he doesn't have half the electorate to win over. He has all of it.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    The strategy he used is moot because all he needed to do was appeal to Democrats to beat Specter. Now with the GE about 90 so days away he needs to appeal to not only Dems, but Dems, Specter Dems, modrate Republicans, Indies etc. The whole spectrum.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    That worked ONLY BECAUSE SPECTER WAS EQUALLY DARK......
    If Toomey were dark, Sestak would hold steady.  Toomey has been on the air, and Sestak dark, so Sestak is starting to bleed some.

    Indeed, Sestak is lucky it's taken this long for polling to show bleeding.  I would have thought he'd have suffered much earlier, but he stayed tied.

    Sestak lucked out against Specter because Specter didn't do anything for a long time.  Specter stumped, but he wasn't on the air until somewhat late.  Had he aired ads starting in January and continuing through the rest of the winter and spring, I bet he would have hung on.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Sestak was down by more than 9 against Specter
    How did that turn out?

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    [ Parent ]
    NJ-03
    What Adler and the state party may do is the same thing the MIGOP will be doing in Michigan. Here, the Oakland County Democratic party organized and put up a whole slate of Tea Party candidates around the state to siphon votes. Virtually none of them have ever had any connection to the Tea Party, only a couple have ever voted Republican for anything, several are former union officers or registered Dems, and two of them are only 20 and thus are ineligible to run for the offices they're down for.

    Thus, the state GOP is seeking affidavits from each of the people who signed the party's petitions (saying that they were mislead by the petition organizers), which can then be presented in court as a signature obtained via spurious means, and potentially disqualified.


    About the Fundraiser
     I knew someone who was staying at the same hotel Obama was at for the fundraiser. He said that Obama coming was inconveint due to traffic. I heard there were many secret service guys in the hotel too.  

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    The Anti-Emmer.
    This wasn't my favorite ad of the cycle. Honestly it seems pretty cheesy and lame, even though I see the add several times a day.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    The Anti-Emmer.
    This wasn't my favorite ad of the cycle. Honestly it seems pretty cheesy and lame, even though I see the add several times a day.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    Jensen
    "The dropoff in Democratic turnout these numbers suggest is similar to what happened to Democrats in Virginia last year, but worse than what they saw in Massachusetts and New Jersey..."

    Illinois looks like Virginia but Pennsylvania looks more like New Jersey to me.  


    "Freakazoid Lex Luther clone"
       best candidate description ever! LOL...

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    Without half the charisma


    [ Parent ]
    I'm still baffled why PPP keeps polling the Green candidate here


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    He polls competitively
    Would not be surprised if he got ten percent in the end.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Mm
    I don't think Alexi is as toxic as Blago was. I say 10% is the Green candidate's asymptote (i.e. he can approach it but can't reach it).

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]

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