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SSP Daily Digest: 8/11 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 11, 2010 at 4:34 PM EDT


CT-Sen: This may be the first time we've ever linked to Jezebel, but they have a nice deconstruction of the public face of the new image that Linda McMahon has built up for herself, and its complicated relationship to the WWE, the source of the millions that Linda McMahon plans to spend on her Senate bid. (Although I wish they'd focused more on the behind-the-scenes stuff: the steroids, the lack of health care, the union-busting, and so on...)

KY-Sen: Is this really the kind of headlines that Rand Paul (or any candidate, for any office) would want to be seeing today? "Woman Says Paul Did Not Kidnap Her," and "Paul Apologizes for Fancy Farm Beer Flub." The former story isn't that surprising, in that Paul's college acquaintance clarifies that the whole let's-tie-her-up-make-her-smoke-pot-and-pray-to-a-graven-idol thing was more of a consensual hazing than an out-and-out kidnapping (of course, other than the "kidnapping" semantics, all that Bong Hits for Aqua Buddha stuff still seems to stand). The latter story has its roots in Paul's worries that the audience at the Fancy Farm church picnic (the same ones who got the vapors last year when Jack Conway used the words "son of a bitch") were going to start throwing beer at him - even though the event was dry. Having realized that you don't go around dissing politically-legendary church picnics unless you have the political instincts of a brick, Paul later apologized.

LA-Sen: Southern Media & Opinion Research finds that David Vitter leads Charlie Melancon 46-28, not much changed since their last poll from spring, where Vitter led 49-31. They also take a look at the Republican Senate primary, finding (as did POS a few weeks ago) that Chet Traylor is really turning into something of a paper tiger: Vitter leads Traylor 78-4! They also do a quick look at the jungle-style Lt. Governor special election, giving the lead to current Republican SoS Jay Dardenne at 26.

OR-Gov: Well, it seems like the John Kitzhaber campaign has finally acknowledged what the blogosphere realized a while ago, that it's time to shake things up and bring in a more feisty and uptempo approach. That's hopefully what they're doing with a new campaign manager, Patricia McCaig. Interestingly, McCaig is a former right-hand woman to ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts, who Kitzhaber shoved over in 1994 and whose relations with Kitz have been rocky since then.

AZ-03: Will today's double-whammy be enough to knock Ben Quayle out of his seeming frontrunner position in the GOP primary in the 3rd? Rocked by controversy over having denied and then having gotten outed as having written pseudonymously for sleazy local website DirtyScottsdale.com (a forerunner to today's TheDirty.com), he's out with a TV spot that he hopes will take some of the heat off. Unfortunately for him, the ad seems to have gotten an almost universally derisive reaction, based on his odd combination of hyperbolic claims ("Barack Obama is the worst president in history"), slow, droning delivery, and strange robotic motions.

IA-03: When we moved Leonard Boswell in the 3rd to Tossup a few weeks ago, we weren't fooling around. A second Republican poll was released today giving his GOP challenger, state Sen. Brad Zaun, a decent-sized lead: Victory Enterprises, on behalf of the Polk County GOP and not the Zaun camp, finds a 45-38 lead for Zaun. (There was also a June poll giving Zaun a 41-32 lead. It was also by Victory Enterprises, and shared the same Republican-friendly party ID composition, but that one was for the Zaun campaign.)

OR-05: He's Scott Bruun, and he drives a truck. He also supports privatizing Social Security. Or doesn't he? Bruun has reversed himself several times on how he frames the issue, depending on who his audience is, but either way, he seems to be relying on the Paul Ryan roadmap for his ideas.

Passages: Here's a sad bookend to yesterday's death of Ted Stevens: today's death of another legendary, long-time Congressman who was a master at horse-trading and pork-wrangling, this one from the other side of the aisle. Former Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, one of the biggest Democratic names to fall in 1994, died at age 82.

Rasmussen:
FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 38%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%
FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 36%, Charlie Crist (I) 37%
IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%
TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 56%
WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%
WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 48%, Dave Westlake (R) 39%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/11 (Afternoon Edition)
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Not buying the IA-03 poll
Victory is still a Republican-connected firm, and the poll was for the Polk County GOP. It's an internal, and should be taken with a grain of salt.

If desmoinesdem starts thinking this race is a tossup, then I'll believe it.  


I would go with the tossup rating
because even though these are Republican polls, we haven't seen independent polls and Boswell's not releasing his internal polling.

That said, if I were a betting woman I would bet on Boswell to hold the seat.


[ Parent ]
AZ-03, you forgot the (now) obligatory: NWOTSOTB
What an amazingly bad ad.

What an amazingly bad candidate
And his father was such a great...oh wait.  

[ Parent ]
The idiocy is genetic
He's as dumb as his Father is.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
And just for fun, one of Dan Qualye's most memorable moments


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
I'm a political young'n
I turn 20 in January, and I had never seen that before.  That was awesome.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
You
have never seen that before? Wow, I did not know any political junkies who have not seen that before you. I suppose you do not know of the potato thing either? Dan Quayle was the Sarah Palin of the eighties except he actually got elected.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Well he wasn't that bad
Quayle was a goofball.  He's really known for the big 3 (potato, you're no Jack Kennedy, and his war with "Murphy Brown").

Palin is beyond goofball.  And she is way more of a media "darling" than Quayle ever was.

In one similarity, though, I find them equal, I simply have no idea how Bush 41 picked Quayle or how McCain ended up picking Palin.  I know the explanations, I just find the whole reasoning perplexing.


[ Parent ]
You mean potatoe?
(how Dan Quayle spelled it in public once)

I had a pin for a while with his goofy face that said

"Just say noe"


[ Parent ]
Oh
Don't get me wrong, I'm a Dan Quayle fan, but not having grown up in that era, all I know about is his Potatoe thing.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
God, how I wish Bentsen were atop the ticket that year


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Bentsen was great, but was brought down by a combination of Reagan High and Dukakis's tank.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
sadly
I think my original thoughts on IA-3 were correct, that Boswell is a weak incumbent in a swing district, that in a year like this will lose to Generic R.  Crud.  

I think Desmoinesdem and IA-3 might be in the same place as me and OH-15, we have our reasons for thinking that Leonard Boswell/Mary Kilroy might win, but homerism might be playing a role as well.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


Well, I'm originally from Iowa...
So I might be in denial on this one. But I haven't been impressed by Zaun's campaign so far.  

[ Parent ]
I posted downthread
I agree with the tossup rating, but my hunch is that Boswell will hand on. Right now Zaun is the generic R, but Boswell has a lot more money to define Zaun than Zaun has to define himself.

Sure wish Boswell had retired in 2008, though.


[ Parent ]
another wild card
is going to be turnout in Polk County. Zaun needs to do much better than the average R does in Polk County.

Three of the five county supervisors are Democrats, and Republicans nominated candidates against all of them. If they win one seat, they will have control of the county supervisors' board for the first time in six decades.

Only one of the county supervisor races is expected to be competitive, featuring the third-place IA-03 GOP primary candidate. Labor unions will be out in force to keep the Democratic incumbent in that position.

Some people think it was a mistake for the Republicans to put up candidates in the other two supervisors' districts, because that will motivate those (very experienced) politicians to work hard on GOTV in Democratic neighborhoods of central and south-side Des Moines. Boswell and other up-ticket Democrats could benefit from that. Zaun's strongholds are in the Republican areas of Polk County, where the county supervisors are not up for re-election this year.


[ Parent ]
Not comparable
We have a great candidate in OH-15, where ya'll have a relatively weak one. We have a nice cash advantage there, ya'll have a huge cash advantage in IA-03. OH-15 is likely to flip, while there IA-03 is slightly favored to stay blue.  

[ Parent ]
Ehh
I'd balk at calling Mary Kilroy a weak candidate.  How quickly we all forget that she came within .5% of taking out a fairly popular 7-term incumbent in 2006.  One of the reasons Deborah Pryce retired in the 2008 cycle was ostensibly because she didn't think she would win the second go-round with Kilroy, and more than likely that thinking would've been correct.  The only reason the race in 2008 was close was because Stivers ran a good campaign and was well-funded.  He was a good get for Team Red.

Now granted, Kilroy probably should have won that race by more than the 1% that she did.  She beat Stivers 46-45, while Obama beat McCain 54-45, which basically means that Stivers got the same exact voters that McCain got, and a decent portion of Obama's winning coalition either didn't like Kilroy or weren't really all that enthused by her candidacy for some reason.  Admittedly she's not the most charismatic candidate in the world, but she's eons ahead of our senate candidate, Lee Fisher, in that department.  Will Stivers win this time around?  Yeah, probably, but I don't think it's going to be as easy as everybody thinks.  It's only a matter of time before Columbus turns into the next Cleveland for the democrats.  

I had to check on your CoH claim, and yes, Stivers did have a great fundraising quarter in Q2, which put him into the CoH lead, roughly 1.24 million to 950k.  I have little doubt that both congressional committees are going to plunk cash down here as well, and with other races crowding the ballot, this race is going to be expensive.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Rass' IL-Sen
20% undeiced or another candidate?  

In 2008 for Durbin, less than 4% came in for other candidates.  In 2006 for Obama's race, other came in at 3%.

So if we assume that 3-4% is actually other, then 17% are undecided.  Seems a little high to me.  Strangely, this is one race I'd like to see polled where respondents are pushed to vote for either candidate and not given the option of other and undecided, just to see the leanings.

I'm sure the negatives are high on both, but if the respondents are going to vote they should have a better lean than 17% undecided today.


What's odd is that I thought Rasmussen usually did push


[ Parent ]
Lord help us if they did
That would mean this race is mudslingier than anything we've seen before and people are past the point of "holding my nose and voting" and possibly sitting this one out.

Still, I just can't see Alexi not calling in Obama, and I can't see Obama not delivering enough in Chicago to bring this one home.

If I were Alexi, I'd run an ad with Burris and Kirk.  "You just had a crazy Senator (Burris image), do you really want a liar (Kirk image)?  Vote for me, I'm only moderately corrupt."

LOL.


[ Parent ]
Cribbing from the Edwin Edwards playbook a little
But it could work!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
20% seems OK to me
Both candidates have had horrible news cycles for the past month or two, so a lot of people are probably waiting for all the dirt to come out before they make up their minds. This will probably be one of the latest-breaking races in the country, but I expect it to break significantly to one side or the other by Election Day.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Ugh
There's more dirt coming?  

[ Parent ]
Would it
Really surprise you? Look at both candidates. I'd be surprised if nothing else came out on either of them.  

[ Parent ]
It actually would
There has been so much digging on Alexi and all his dealing I just don't know what else could possibly come up.

As for Kirk, since his stuff was of his self-doing, I sort of feel his dirt has been dug too.

Hold your nose Illinois....


[ Parent ]
I think
The media has found all it could. I bet the candidates and committee's might have found much more and are waiting until October to unload. With the special election, they will have a lot more money to spend to get that message out too.

[ Parent ]
It's possible that Green Party candidate is netting a decent share


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
tossup is the right rating for IA-03
I still think Boswell will pull through, but we haven't had any public polling of the IA-03 race, and Boswell hasn't released his own internal polling.  

The Iowa Democratic Party's GOTV effort will be crucial for this and many other down-ticket races. They need to push the unreliable off-year D voters to vote early. The seniors demographic will be important for Boswell, so I expect to hear more about the prescription drug "donut hole" closure, Medicare reimbursement rates, etc.

Zaun is unusually strong for a Republican in Polk County (the Des Moines area, where 2/3 of the district's votes are). Boswell has potential to outperform the top of the D ticket outside Polk County, however. Zaun knows nothing about rural/ag issues and has already gotten tripped up over ethanol subsidies.

Boswell's campaign has also criticized Zaun for being against government flood relief aid, defending a dodgy former state division director and not understanding the Medicare reimbursement disparity that the health care bill corrected. Looks like we are headed for a very negative campaign.


There
has been some concern Boswell is a "weak incumbent." What do you think?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I mostly agree
He is a weak incumbent. He did survive 2002, even though his district changed a lot after the 2000 census, and it was a pretty bad year to be a D. He performed better than Kerry in the third district in 2004 but performed worse than Culver in 2006 and Obama in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Is he weak
Or is it just a district that a D can't get too comfortable in?

[ Parent ]
Boswell is not a
good fit for it. It's more urban and suburban than his old district; he's a rural, farming area politician, that's his base. He's old, and has had health problems. He really should have retired in 2008.

[ Parent ]
CT-SEN
I will say it every time: it's not about the sex or the violence.  It's about the deaths of young wrestlers from business practices which the WWE implemented.

You are right, that is the angle to hit McMahon
Attacking WWE content will not play with the electorate. Attacking business practices though, that resonates with people.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Capito leads for WV Gov, Manchin trounces Raese
http://www.dailymail.com/elect...
Capito has big leads over every possible Dem candidate, except for SoS Natalie Tennant, whom she leads by 3. Former SoS Betty Ireland (R) does much worse.  

Capito leads Tennant by 6, not 3
The 1st page said she led by 3, but the actual numbers show her leading 43-37.  

[ Parent ]
It was connected online.
I don't think so.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
meaning I don't
trust it

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Do you mean conducted?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
Woops

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Thats what
All that crap at the end meant? Why couldn't they just say it as simple as you do?  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Middle of first page: "The survey by R.L. Repass & Partners Inc. and MindField Internet Panels, is a "double opt-in" poll that was conducted online by a group of panelists."

It's also a likely voter poll pretty far in advance of the election and the sample size is <300. though I guess the numbers don't seem that ridiculous.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Bryan Baird not on WA-03 ballot
Remember at Washington's filing deadline there was a 24 yr old guy trying to get on the ballot named Bryan Baird, but he wouldn't be 25 by January 3rd and there was conflict about whether he should be allowed to qualify? Well, he didn't. :(  

Funny
I was looking at my old HS yearbook and I remembered something funny. My old science teacher was named Kent Conrad.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Was his
Real name Gaylord?  

[ Parent ]
Kitzahaber
I think he'll be Ok. But he's the clearest victim of the economic slowdown. And I'm not sure being more aggressive will help because he's a known commodity. He doesn't want to come across as a phony.

He should let surrogates and the DGA do the dirty work.


I think his
Biggest problem is the incumbent gov, whose name I'm not even trying to spell. He's pretty unpopular, and like we've seen in WI, is dragging down the person trying to succeed him.  

[ Parent ]
Coolin' Goss Key?
Is he a key figure of the goth movement and regarded as cool?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: New Ad From Reid
Political analyst Jon Ralston calls it one of Reid's best ads of the cycle.

Also, new ad from "Patriot Majority"

What say you to these ads? :)

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


What i think?
I think Patriot Majority has an iPad they should be giving to me now instead of showing off for political purposes. :P

Reality though, both are excellent ads, well done clean hits.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]

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