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SSP Daily Digest: 8/10 (Morning Edition)

by: James L.

Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 8:02 AM EDT


(Note: That may be my name in the by-line, but this post was written entirely by SSP Blogfather DavidNYC.)

  • AK-Sen: David Drucker reports that Lisa Murkowski has $1.8 million on-hand in her pre-primary FEC report, meaning she's spent at least $600K (and probably more) since the end of June in her race against upstart Joe Miller (whose fundraising has been meager at best). And that's a lot of money for Alaska.
  • AZ-Sen: John McCain's final (or near-final) TV ad links J.D. Hayworth directly to Jack Abramoff, something his campaign has done for a while, but the first time McCain's actually gone on the air with the attack. NWOTSOTB.
  • CO-Sen: Politico takes a good look at the backstory to that New York Times piece about Michael Bennet's involvement in potentially questionable exotic financing deals the Denver public school system bought into during his tenure as its boss. The story was explicitly fed to NYT reporter Gretchen Morgenstern by Jeannie Kaplan, a prominent backer and fundraiser for Andrew Romanoff - a conflict the Times failed to mention in its initial writeup.
  • NV-Sen: We'll stop telling you about all the crazy shit Sharron Angle says just as soon as we get tired of doing so - which will be never:
  • "I think we get confused a little bit. Our healthcare system is the best in the world. There's nothing wrong with our healthcare system. Our doctors are the best," says Angle.

    A couple other Angle items: (1) She's pledged not to accept PAC money from companies which provide health benefits to gay partners, but of course she's taking their cash anyway. (2) After declaring that Obama wants to "make government our God," she's gone and accused Harry Reid of injecting religion into the race, saying Angle was merely "discussing her religion." Uh huh.

  • PA-Sen, PA-07, PA-08: Buncha similar stories coming out of the Keystone State today. In the senate race, Dem Joe Sestak is trying to oust Green Party candidate Mel Packer from the ballot. In the 7th CD, GOPer Pat Meehan is attempting to boot teabagger Jim Schneller from the ticket. And in the 8th CD, PoliticsPA says that indy Tom Lingenfelter's candidacy is also being challenged, presumably by the Mike Fitzpatrick campaign, seeing as Lingenfelter was helped on to the ballot by Patrick Murphy supporters.
  • TN-Gov: The list of candidates in America who would be well-served by burnishing a John Kerry-esque profile is very, very short - and the Republican nominee for governor in Tennessee ain't on it. So you can understand why GOPer Bill Haslam has been taking some heat for the time he's spent vacationing in Nantucket over the years. Just call him the first wine-track Republican!
  • CO-04, NM-02: Defenders of Wildlife is pledging to help thwart Cory Gardner and Steve Pearce in their races against Reps. Betsy Markey and Harry Teague. Though the group hasn't said how much they'll spend this year, they threw in over a million bucks to help Markey defeat ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave last cycle. They didn't get involved in NM-02 last time, but they did spend six figures on behalf of Martin Heinrich in NM-01.
  • KS-04: Ah, nothing tastier than day-old cat fud - the smell just lingers in the air, doesn't it? The second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers in the Republican primary are all holding off on endorsing winner Mike Pompeo. Jean Schodorf, Wink Hartman, and Jim Anderson are all saying that they "haven't had any contact with Pompeo since before election day." Schodorf even left a congratulatory message for Pompeo, who didn't bother calling back. He sounds like an utter dickbag, which means he'll fit in perfectly in the GOP caucus if he wins in November.
  • MI-01: With 16 of 31 counties having completed their re-canvass, surgeon Dan Benishek claims he leads state Sen. Jason Allen by 18 votes in this ultra-tight race. Once this process is over, then the candidates can ask for a recount, while Dem state Rep. Gary McDowell does a happy dance.
  • MI-09: At a recent fundraiser for Rocky Raczkowski, Phyllis Schlafly offered these bon mots:
  • Do you know what the second-biggest demographic group that voted for Obama - obviously the blacks were the biggest demographic group. But do you all know what was the second-biggest? Unmarried women, 70% of unmarried women, voted for Obama, and this is because when you kick your husband out, you've got to have big brother government to be your provider.

    Rocky tried to distance himself from Schlafly's comments, describing himself as "gender blind." Which I guess makes him bisexual.

  • NY-23: DUIs seem to come up with depressing frequency on the campaign trail, but BUIs? No, that's not a typo - that's Boating Under the Influence. Yep, GOPer Matt Doheny was charged with the offense not once but twice back in 2004, and on the first occasion, he was combative enough to get handcuffed by the police.
  • OH-18: The NRCC is shopping around a poll, taken by On Message, Inc., which purportedly shows Rep. Zack Space tied with GOPer Bob Gibbs at 43 apiece. The Space campaign had an interesting response. A spokesman said: "It doesn't square with what we know. And we're not going to be head faked into releasing anything on our side." Keep this quote in mind when you wonder why more Democrats haven't released internal polls. I'm not saying this year isn't going to be awful for us (I'm sure it will be), but there are strategic reasons to play your cards close to the vest. For instance, while an ugly, un-countered internal can be deadly for a challenger's fundraising, someone like Space doesn't have to be worried that donors will no longer take him seriously because of this poll.
  • TN-08: Dem Roy Herron released his first TV ad of the general election campaign, even before they finished counting the votes in the GOP primary. In the spot, he calls himself a "truck-driving, shotgun-shooting, Bible-reading, crime-fighting, family-loving coun­try boy." NWOTSOTB.
  • James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/10 (Morning Edition)
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    TN-Gov: Seriously?
    I can't tell if that story was serious or not. they were talking about going to Nantucket like failing to pay taxes or cheating on one's wife with a hooker or something.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Ditto. That story sounded fake.
    James, dude, seriously?

    [ Parent ]
    NY-23
    This seems to be the cycle for BUIs. Remember Denny Rehberg's
    little fiasco about a year ago. Only difference is that the GOP State Senate Majority Leader was the one who was actually BUI (he's now being charged with 3 felony charges in connection with the incident), though Rehberg has gone out of his way to defend Barkus throughout, and most accounts say that he was drunk, too. He'd probably be in the same boat (no pun intended) as Doheny right now if he weren't a 10-year incumbent in a red state that's been shockingly tolerant of his "I'm just a good cowpoke" crap over the years.



    In regards to the Defenders of Wildlife PAC and NM-02
    They've been running this ad during the morning news hour on network TV.  It's the same ad they ran against Pearce when he was running for Senate last cycle.  I don't know the size of the buy.

    Here is the Defenders press release for the ad spot: http://www.defendersactionfund...


    Who doesn't love a good hypocrite.
    http://www.indystar.com/articl...

    I swear I will have no more respect for Daniels at all if he refuses that money, we need it. Teachers are dropping like flies and he doesn't care. I can't wait to get a dem back in 2012. I am no fan of Bayh but I can't wait until he is my Governor again.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    TN-Gov: Haslam
    I think Haslam should be docked some points from his "campaign skill sets assessment" for saying he is a "Frog Jump Republican", because he is certainly not rural, a farmer, or a West Tennessean. Heck, if you ask most of the people in the community of Frog Jump, they would still self-identify as Democrats. Really sounds lame for a moderate urban East Tennessee mayor to self-identify with rural conservative Stephen Fincher. This is something I'd expect out of Zack Wamp, not Haslam.

    Democrat: TN-8

    Zach, not Zack
    Typo

    Democrat: TN-8

    [ Parent ]
    Ted Stevens possibly in a plane crash
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38...

    A plane believed to be carrying eight people crashed in southwest Alaska on Monday night, authorities said on Tuesday.

    It was feared that former Sen. Ted Stevens was on board the flight, but officials have not been able to confirm that, local station KTUU TV reported. The Associated Press also cited an unnamed U.S. official as saying Stevens may have been on board.

    Alaska National Guard spokesman Maj. Guy Hayes said the Guard was called to the area about 20 miles north of Dillingham at about 7 p.m. Monday after a passing aircraft saw the wreckage.

    There were possible fatalities as well as survivors, Hayes said.



    I hope he's alright
    I cheered when he lost his re-election bid, but a distinguished senator with so many years of public service deserves to have a quiet retirement and go in peace. This would be very sad.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    This wouldn't be the first time
    He survived a 1978 plane crash that killed his first wife.  I know that you need to be on a lot of small planes to travel around Alaska, but still ....

    [ Parent ]
    also, didn't
    Mark Begich's father and a Louisiana congressman (Hale Boggs?) die in a plane crash?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    Hale Boggs was the House Majority Leader at the time, campaigning for Begich.  The plane/remains were never found.  Some wacky conspiracy theorists to this day have far-flung explanations for this, as Boggs was a member of the Warren Commission.

    [ Parent ]
    Boggs wife became a Congressman after his death
    And Boggs daughter is Cookie Roberts.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Oh No
    I hope he survived. I just read that at least five of the nine passengers died and the others are in very serious condition. Given his age I do not like his odds. What a horrible end.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    At least six are dead now and two are seriously injured.


    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Reports are now coming in that Stevens may be dead.


    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    He is
    RIP Ted Stevens.  

    [ Parent ]
    NY-Gov: John Faso backs Lazio
    http://pressrepublican.com/new...

    This may seem like a miniscule endorsement, but Paladino's been surging over the past weeks. Even the slightest positive news helps Lazio.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    Please, God
    I hope you are banking all of sharon angle's comments, so after the election is over we can have one post with all of them.  I would favorite that page and read it every day for months.  Please, please, please.  

    The first wine-track Republican?
    David and James, allow me to introduce you to one Willard Mitt Romney.

    And what's so bad about Nantucket anyway? Half the people in Massachusetts have been there at one point or another in their lives.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    nantucket is a codeword
    for people who aren't like us.  it's like San Fransisco, new york, Massachusetts, New England, Canada, they're code words for liberal places that while great places, are also, to a select group of conservative activists, representative of everything bad about the world.  it's kind of the big city versus small town thing, which wouldn't be so bad if the small town people didn't blow a gasket every time you suggest their way of living isn't perfection chosen by god himself.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    it's just weird how
    even visiting such places is enough to be OMG SCANDAL. Honestly, nothing makes me more cynical about America than when people bet on encouraging provincialism or anti-intellectualism as a winning campaign strategy.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    exactly
    and heaven forbid it goes the other way.  if a rural politician makes a joke about people in big cities, calling new yorkers nothing but gay crack addicts going to hell, for example, he'll get to laugh about it on fox news and at worst issue a halfhearted apology.  if a city politician called, say, podunk north dakota a town full of judgmental, inbred, meth addicts he'd be done in politics.  why is the small town sacred, but the big city can be used as a campaign pinata?  

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    Somehow visiting San Francisco or buying a $30 bottle of wine or something like that means you're some kind of liberal, elitist, alien species.

    A few years ago I saw Bill Maher live, and he took on this notion of liberal elitism, saying something like "This country was founded by liberal elitists from Massachusetts and Northern Virginia.  I hate to break it to you, but George Washington did not watch NASCAR!"


    [ Parent ]
    It's the recession
    While the basic complaint is generally true, it has resonance during the economic downturn -- as it extends to personal trips by spouses/children to foreign countries like Spain.

    The resonance is based on the notion that the people who lead us should also lead by example, tightening their belts during difficult times.


    [ Parent ]
    He had a great...
    New Rule back in 2007 where he tackled that smear of being "elitist".  Excellent stuff.



    [ Parent ]
    Pretty funny
    Love me some sarcasm.

    [ Parent ]
    DE-Sen: Castle up 13
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

    I suppose one can take a little solace in that Castle's under 50%, but this is still a pretty crummy poll for Coons. Coons favorable is at a lukewarm 31-31, and he's actually down double-digits to Christine O'Donnell among Independents.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    Carney is doing good though
    Meanwhile, the House race to replace Castle remains one of the Democrat's top pickup opportunities this year, with John Carney currently beating Republicans Michele Rollins (48-31) and Glen Urquhart (48-30).


    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Good results
    for Tom Carper (+14 approval) & Ted Kaufman (+7 approval). Delaware seems to be one of the only states that likes its incumbents.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Very good news
    Republicans have been increasingly confident about Rollins chances. Carney is in a similar poistion to Castle really.

    [ Parent ]
    The thing that worries me
    About the Senate race is the same thing that comforts me about the House race: Coons and Rollins haven't spent their money yet. One thing that makes me feel a lot better is Coons doesn't have much, but Rollins has a ton.  

    [ Parent ]
    Very true
    I alluded to that too. Yet you'll notice Carney does have a bigger lead than Castle does.

    [ Parent ]
    Like I noted...
    in the comments there, looking at the numbers, only 53% of the poll sample said they voted for Obama in 2008, compared to 40% who voted for McCain.  That's in contrast to what actually happened in 2008, when Obama won Delaware 62%-37%.  So this looks like a MUCH less Democratic electorate than in 2008.  (And Obama's approval in this poll is only 50%-44%.)  Has Obama's support really fallen by THAT much in a blue state like Delaware?  We'll soon find out.

    Also, given that Tom Carper's been their Senator since 2001, and their Governor for 2 terms before that, and their lone Congressman for yet another decade before that, and their state treasurer for another term before that... 20% don't even know if they approve or disapprove of him as Senator?  Seems a bit high to me.  You would think Carper's one of those people that everybody in the state knows and has an opinion of, like Mike Castle (whose unknowns in favorability clock in at 18% in the poll).  So we're also talking about a pretty uninformed electorate too.


    [ Parent ]
    Right now
    Delaware Democrats don't have much to be excited about would be my only conclusion. (i.e. most people think Castle is probably going to win)  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    The unknowns
    I doubt its the standard unknown, say, akin to undecided.

    When people don't favor (or unfavor) a candidate who has been around a while, it probably means the candidates are bland.  Carper adn Castle fit that bill to a T.  People may know them, like/dislike them, vote for them or not, and still maybe just feel "meh" about them.

    I usually feel the same way as you.  I just don't think of Delaware as an extremely impassioned electorate.

    (BTW, I've made this same argument about WA-SEN, where like 30% were undecided between Rossi and Murray.  I jsut think Washington is slightly more passionate about politics and Murray and Rossi (especially) drive more feeling than any candidate in Delaware)


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, Obama's approval is that bad
    in a blue state like Delaware.  I recognize it's hard to believe but there's no reason to believe it.

    It's pretty simple.  Fewer people are willing to admit they voted for Barack Obama.  Kos even admits in his write-up this poll is of registered voters, not likely voters.

    It's not a strange phenomenon.  Look at the percentage showing the percentage comprised of Bush voters in the 2008 polling.  It was far lower than 51%.


    [ Parent ]
    RV
    No it isn't it is a hybrid half-way house. This has been explained ad nauseam. And PPP always have the president's job approval lower than reality.

    [ Parent ]
    Lower than reality?
    It's pretty consistent with Rasmussen, last month's USA Today/Gallup poll, and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll (Silver even concede that Fox's Obama approval ratings had no house-effect...only the questions that came after the approval ratings had bias in Silver's opinion).

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Do I really have to post
    The NJ and VA exit poll comparison yet again?

    [ Parent ]
    I personally enjoy Rasmussen IL
    Illinois only has a 55% approval.  California at 56%.  Tells me pretty much all I need to know.


    [ Parent ]
    Difference.
    When people didn't want to admit they voted for Bush, his approval numbers by that time were basically in the toilet.  We're talking low 30s, dipping into the 20s, and his disapprovals were at or above the 60% mark.

    Right now, the polls (once you discount Rasmussen and those unreliable Internet polls) show Obama's approval at 44%, disapproval at 49%.  Not good, but not even in the same ballpark as Bush's bad ratings.

    (And keep in mind Obama's approval is better than Reagan's at this point in their presidencies.)

    I think the phenomenon of people embarrassed to admit they voted for Obama is so tiny so as not to matter... yet.  At least not enough to move poll numbers in any significant way.


    [ Parent ]
    I also think
    It was later on in Bush's presidency.  As time goes on, people either start to believe they voted for someone who they didn't or just simply forget and say who they "think" they voted for.

    I remember reading a long time ago about something where people were surveyed years after Kennedy died and something like 60+% recalled voting for him, even though he never got anywhere near that vote.  

    Its revisionist history sometimes, though without malice or intent.


    [ Parent ]
    THANK YOU!
    "(And keep in mind Obama's approval is better than Reagan's at this point in their presidencies.)"

    I keep making the Reagan comparison to people at home. People really didn't like Reagan, and the Democrats won a bunch of seats in the House that mid-term election. Reagan went on to be one of the most loved presidents.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    Prove it
    "there's no reason to believe it. "

    Heh, just like everything else you say.

    But sure, since you just assert that it is, it must be so. After all, you're so confident in your assertion, you didn't even bother with things like evidence or reasoning. How couldn't we trust you?

    "Fewer people are willing to admit they voted for Barack Obama."

    Prove it.

    "Kos even admits in his write-up this poll is of registered voters, not likely voters."

    No he didn't, he said this is a sort of hybrid model. So let's be clear, you need to offer evidence of your assertions, but it has to be, y'know, FACTS, not your fun make-em-ups.


    [ Parent ]
    I was responding to somone who
    claimed that Obama's approval certainly couldn't be as bad as 50/44 in Delaware.  So we are both making claims that cannot be proved but you seem to only have an issue with my claim.

    The "hybrid" that you are talking is someone who "has voted in at least one of the last three elections."  That means that no Obama voters from 2008 would be excluded from the poll.  It doesn't appear as if anyone who would be favorable to Obama is getting excluded.  If a registered voter didn't bother to vote for Obama in 2008, why would that person be more enthused to vote for him now?


    [ Parent ]
    So that makes the poll a worse case
    Scenario for Castle. But that wasn't what you said.

    [ Parent ]
    I stand corrected then
    You were right about registed voters.

    But I don't see how the screen is hurting obama since none of his voters in 2008 are excluded.


    [ Parent ]
    Who knows why
    Internals are funky and often contradict other data in the same poll.

    [ Parent ]
    Except...
    it would seem, unless they did some post-polling shuffling around, anyone from the ages of 18-20 now, who was ineligible to vote in November 2008.

    That group, I would assume, at least leans Democratic, if not strongly so.  And I would also assume that at least some of them will show up to vote in November.


    [ Parent ]
    If Obama's really at 50/44 approval, then the poll sample is dead-on
    If I were Chris Coons, I probably wouldn't even have Obama campaign for me - instead, utilize Sen. Carper and Gov. Markell, both of who rival Mike Castle in popularity. That's just the problem, though - Castle is so popular, the one and only way Coons can win is by going SUPER negative, which, in turn, would probably also put Coons upside-down in favorability.

    For the record, my own current projection on DE-Sen is...

    Democrat - 43%
    GOP - 34%
    Independent - 23%

    Castle - 27/95/68 = 60%
    Coons - 73/5/32 = 40%

    I won't even bother calculating Coons/O'Donnell, cuz, despite the hopes of some liberals, she doesn't have the slightest shot at breaking 25%, let alone beating Castle.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Obama can't hurt Coons
    Might as well bring him in.  I just don't see how Obama can hurt Coons.  It at least builds his profile, might help with fund-raising, etc.  Its not like people won't know Coons is a Democrat, or that both of the state Senators are Obama supportes.

    I sincerely doubt the state of Delaware forgets who the VP is.  Hiding from Obama is pretty un-possible.


    [ Parent ]
    Castle isn't that popular
    51% is probably a little low but he is hardly Joe Manchin. And you are forgetting an even better DE surrogate.

    [ Parent ]
    There's also some dude...
    whose son is the Attorney General of the state that Coons might be able to bring in, ya know.  ;-)

    [ Parent ]
    If you don't minde
    me asking, what is your formula, and where do you get 2008 perty ID numbers?  

    [ Parent ]
    I can post them for you later
    If you like.

    [ Parent ]
    That would be lovely
    Thank you. I'll have to bookmark it.  

    [ Parent ]
    I will do a diary
    Because I too wonder sometimes what these predictions are actually based on.

    [ Parent ]
    I have no specific, apply-to-all formula, although I am sensing a general pattern in my calculations
    On average, in this particular cycle, I find I'm chopping down '08 Democratic turn-out by about 10%. That is, if Dems made up 35% of a state's election in '08, I'll likely have them at about 31-32% in '10. But...for the most part, everything is on a state-by-state basis. Certain states have terrific, exiting Democratic candidates running, thus keeping Dem turn-out from fizzling too badly, and others...well, not so much. I mean, don't expect much South Dakota Dem turn-out with no candidate on the U.S. Senate ballot, but, likewise, expect fine Dem turn-out in states like New York and California.

    I could, I suppose, calculate voter models on all 50 states, but, even if ever-so-slightly, they're destined to evolve a bit as the fall nears.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    In south Dakota there's also a
    midlly competitive Gubernatorial race.  

    [ Parent ]
    Hugely McCain heavy sample
    Nearly 1/4 of Obama voters will not show up, in Delaware?  No freaking way.  

    If PPP used a sample like they had in Ohio, Coons would be ahead.

    If PPP used a sample like they had in Colorado, Coons would be down by about six points.

    Bottom line, superb poll for Coons.


    [ Parent ]
    You don't get
    That the electorate will be different in different states?

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen had
    49-37 so almost identical. I don't think it is as bad as you say. Coons still has a third of the electorate unable to offer an opinion. Castle is likely to win this but it is still the sleeper race IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    Just like Wisconsin, when PPP has a sample with 25%+ Obama no-shows
    their results mirror Rassmussen.

    [ Parent ]
    Internal polls
    Reading between the lines it does now seem to be Dem strategy to stay mum on their own numbers. Not in every case I'm sure but when you consider that several articles have suggested party insiders don't think things are quite as bad as people think it does make you wonder. That has to be based on something. The GOP are still gonna win lots of seats but these incessant polls are getting rather silly and could backfire if they don't end up doing as well as they think. They have let the expectations game get way out of control.

    CO-SEN General
    Bennet 46% (D)
    Norton 40% (R)

    Bennet 46% (D)
    Buck 43% (R)

    Romanoff 43% (D)
    Buck 42% (R)

    Romanoff 42% (D)
    Norton 43% (R)

    Bennet approval: -16 (!)

    Bennet's getting a fair amount of crossover support from Republicans, and doing decently with Independents

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Encouraging
    If that is accurate gotta pull for Bennet tonight.

    [ Parent ]
    Encouraging
    for Betsy Markey & John Salazar as well

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Hoping for Romanoff today
    He's the weaker candidate and it's also a humiliation for Obama.

    That Bennett is -16 and still winning is quite an impressive feat.


    [ Parent ]
    Humiliation?
    Jeez you just can't stop yourself can you. Sigh.

    [ Parent ]
    Remind you of the evolution of another Repub user?
    Remember Ryan_in_Delco started semi-normal, then got worse, then just flipped out one day.  It must be contagious.

    [ Parent ]
    He wasn't the first
    Kyle was even better until he flipped out when Teddy died.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, must be something in the water
    Then again I wouldn't blog at a conservative site since I know where my leanings are and also know that I'm "mouthy" at times.

    [ Parent ]
    Banned
    We don't have much tolerance for GOP boosterism here. Glad to be rid of you.

    [ Parent ]
    Melancon's new ad

    Six digit ad buy: http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    (And that's how you say that name!)

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    I think it's a pretty good ad
    Maybe the best thing Melancon has going for him is the guy comes across as completely sincere -- while I wouldn't believe David Vitter talking about what he ate for lunch.

    [ Parent ]
    Solid stuff
    I wish Melancon all the best, because he's a decent guy. It's a shame that a lying, cheating, hypocrite like David Vitter somehow managed to survive this whole damn prostitution thing and seems likely to win a second term. Of all the Republicans running this cycle (with the possible exception of Sharron Angle), he deserves a kick in the ass more than any other.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

    [ Parent ]
    I think he deserves it more than anyone!
    Sharron Angle is just a run-of-the-mill wack-job who somehow got her party's nomination for the Senate.  David Vitter is a vile human being.

    [ Parent ]
    I never knew his last name was pronounced like that until I saw this ad
    You learn something new all the time.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    How were you pronouncing it before?
    Melon-kon?

    [ Parent ]
    Aren't you Canadian though?
    So you'd have some experience with French names. I bet he'd pronounce Tauzin Towel-zen, as opposed to Taw-zaun.  

    [ Parent ]
    It's an easy mistake to make
    We usually read all these candidates' names without hearing them, so our pronunciations can be unique.

    As for Melancon -- yeah, my own last name is French, so I have that advantage. (Though Melançon isn't a particularly common name in French Canada, to my knowledge.)


    [ Parent ]
    He had to come from there originally
    All these South Louisianans are French Acadians driven out by the British, and Melancon is actually a pretty common name around South Louisiana, though one tends to see it in more upper-class circles; lots of businesses with them; Melancon Funeral Home, Melancon Pharmacy, etc.  

    [ Parent ]
    That's exactly how I was pronouncing it


    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    Sorta reminds me of the Tom Hanks version
    of Charlie Wilson.... (though I'm guessing Melancon's ethics are somewhat stronger)

    [ Parent ]
    Seems like a nice guy
    If I lived in Louisiana, I would consider voting for him if he projected to be a Ben Nelson-type Senator. I still can't believe no high-profile Republicans stepped up to challenge Vitter. They must be waiting for Landrieu's seat to come back up in 2014.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Also
    I know Crisitunity will love this: WOTSOTB!! 115k http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

    [ Parent ]
    this is only one source
    and it's best not to jump to conclusions, but one source suggests that stevens died.  lets hope not, but if so, RIP.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    It's always terrible when something like this happens
    Despite his faults and issues at the end of his career, Ted Stevens was a Senator from another era, when there was more true bipartisanship and friendships across the aisle.  He was a decorated WWII veteran, and more responsible than anyone for building modern Alaska.  I can't think of anyone perhaps in the history of the US Senate (at least in the last half century) who was more associated with the development of his state than Ted Stevens and Robert Byrd, and we've now lost both of them in a very short period of time.

    [ Parent ]
    Backtrack for a moment
    KTUU source says it can't be confirmed yet.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, confirmed now
    Sad, but I wonder what it is about Alaska that makes flying there so deadly. So many people have died in plane crashes; it seems an inordinate amount of politicians are among this bunch.  

    [ Parent ]
    Oh no.
    R.I.P.

    Side note: We honored him with the 2004 UCLA Alumnus of the Year Award.  Regardless of politics, he had done enough in his lifetime by that point to earn that award.


    [ Parent ]
    Toomey
    continues to spend on ads in PA-SEN; Sestak quiet

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Sestak
    Obviously thinks repeating his primary strategy will work again. I have my doubts since he can't really afford to let Toomey define himself.

    [ Parent ]
    Depends on where the ads are airing
    I live in Philly and watch a lot of TV and haven't seen or heard much from either.  Money spent now is kind of wasted, since probably a quarter of Philadelphia is at the New Jersey shore each weekend.  

    If he's spending it in the T area, oh well, but Toomey is going to win that anyways so tis kind of preaching to the choir.

    If he's spending in Pittsburgh, that might be sound.  That is the area I'd think Toomey could outperform and where he could take the race.

    But Sestak could simply swamp him statewide from Labor Day on.  I'm still not entirely convinced Generic R beats Sestak if Sestak runs a good campaign.  Recent polling for Dahlkemper, Holden, Critz and to a lesser extent Lentz tells me PA isn't as crazy angry and shifting right as some states.


    [ Parent ]
    Blanking the state
    The ads are running all over the state. Toomey and some other outside group (can only assume the NRSC) has spend a ton of money in the last month.  

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Haven't seen any
    He's not getting much bang for the buck I wouldn't think.

    [ Parent ]
    I think
    He is making the wrong bet. In the primary, both Specter and Sestak waited, and thats what helped Sestak. Toomeys not playing around like Specter did, waiting for Sestak to fire the first shot.  

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Lieberman likely to seek re-election in 2012
    Of course he is
    Probably will be running as a Whig this time.

    [ Parent ]
    Good
    We can finally slay that particular dragon once and for all.

    [ Parent ]
    Dragon talk goes in the IN-03 thread
    We can't have dragons everywhere now...

    [ Parent ]
    Lieberman vs Murphy vs Rell?
    That's a possibilty, as Rell gave unclear reasons for her retirement (i.e. it sounds like she hasn't closed the book on her political career yet.) I do remember a poll on this three-way last year that Rell led, but it was R2K so it could have been bull. I would suspect that very, very few Democrats would vote Lieberman over Murphy, and Rell would probably consolidate Republicans and moderate-conservative Indies. Would be a tight race between her and Murphy.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I hope she runs
    If she runs, I think she is a slight favorite in a 3 way. According to Q-Pac, in mid July, she had a 60-32 approval rating.  

    [ Parent ]
    In 2012
    I'd expect Obama to crush it in CT.  Especially is he wants to keep a senate majority (provided they hold on in 2010).  Rell might be popular now, but after 2 more years of economic issues (if it happens) who knows whether Rell or Obama will be blamed more.

    I will say that I can't see Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty or most of the other GOP contenders beating Obama in CT.  Even Romney seems far less New England and less likely to carry CT.


    [ Parent ]
    Rell
    Won't still be governor.  

    [ Parent ]
    I know I've tackled this hypothetical pretty recently, but...
    Democrat - 40%
    Independent - 32%
    GOP - 28%

    Lieberman - 13/27/46 = 27%
    Murphy - 72/28/7 = 40%
    Rell - 15/45/47 = 33%

    In other words, a mess. I suspect Rell would have a solid leg-up in a two-way showdown, while Murphy would be slightly favored against a de-facto-GOP Lieberman. It's such a tough race to assess this far out, though. I could easily see Rell wind up facing a right-wing primary challenger should she run.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    I usually agree with you, but...
    No way Lieberman gets 46% of the GOP vote if there's a popular moderate Republican like Rell in the race. My guess is that Lieberman would be abandoned by both parties and be stuck around 20, with Murphy and Rell both in the neighborhood of 40.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    If there is a real Republican like Shays or Rell, or maybe even the return of Rob Simmons 3.0, no way Lieberman gets more than 25% of the GOP vote, and that is probably being generous.  

    [ Parent ]
    Funny
    I was looking at FEC reports for senators up in 2012, and I was gonna say he might be looking at retirement. He's only raised like 90k this whole cycle (From 2009-now)  

    [ Parent ]
    Anybody
    else have a rather low amount of money in the bank?

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    I'm gonna do a diary
    Later. There were some surprised, like how much Lugar, someone who is a very expected retirement, has raised, and Snowe. They have both raised millions this cycle.  

    [ Parent ]
    Castle just voted for jobs for ...
    TEACHERS (Sarah Palin eyeroll).  He was one of two, with Cao being the other.  Shows me he's not to worried about the primary.  Don't know if PPP will have primary numbers.  I hope so.

    On a different note, I bet Beau Biden would be neck-and-neck with Castle or ahead given the movement towards Coon recently.  Oh well...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Oops ... Coons.


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    The last couple months
    there have been quite a few votes where the only 2 Republicans on the Dem side were Cao and Castle. Time to tack left for the general election...

    [ Parent ]
    Rick Scott
    Issued subpoena at press conference to say he is not under investigation. What a fail   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


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