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CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet Retains Small Edge, Republicans Locked in Tossups

by: James L.

Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 2:52 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (8/7-8, likely voters, 5/14-16 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 49 (46)
Andrew Romanoff (D): 43 (31)
Undecided: 9 (23)
(MoE: ±4.6%)

Andrew Romanoff has clearly made some pretty big strides in recent weeks, snaring a big chunk of undecideds and turning this sleepy race into a potential nail-biter tomorrow night. Still, unlike SurveyUSA, which released a poll last week showing Romanoff with a slim lead over Bennet, PPP's tricorder is detecting a Bennet win to be the likeliest outcome. If that's true, I wonder if that recent NY Times piece on Bennet's exotic financial deal-making that backfired while he was the Superintendent of the Denver Board of Education may have come out a little too late for Romanoff to make enough hay out of it. But, maybe robocalls from Bubba will help change a few minds.

Meanwhile, over in GOPville...

Jane Norton (R): 45 (31)
Ken Buck (R): 43 (26)
Undecided: 12 (29)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Scott McInnis (R): 41
Dan Maes (R): 40
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)

PPP also offers slightly different takes than SUSA on the GOP Senate and Gube primaries, showing bare leads for Norton and McInnis where SUSA found Buck and Maes leading the pack last week.

One has to wonder if McInnis would really stick with this thing if he won the primary (his favorability numbers are in the net negatives among Republicans, so the dude is clearly screwed), or if he would step aside and let someone like former state Sen. Josh Penry or Jane Norton (assuming she loses the Senate primary) take his spot on the ballot instead, a deal that ColoradoPols is picking up plenty of chatter about on their enemy radio surveillance channels. And even then, you've gotta wonder if Tom Tancredo would stick out his third-party bid or allow one of Penry or Norton (or whomever) a fighting chance in the general election.
James L. :: CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet Retains Small Edge, Republicans Locked in Tossups
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CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet Retains Small Edge, Republicans Locked in Tossups | 25 comments
I'm still backing Bennett
He's a better fundraiser, more progressive, and he seems to be a very intelligent guy with plenty of experience in various areas of politics and public service. Romanoff's argument has pretty much been "But it was my turn" and that's kind of turned me off from him.  
"More progressive"?
Are you for real? I agree with the fundraiser and intelligent arguments, but any objective look at this race must conclude that Romanoff is running as the more progressive candidate. Romanoff is running on single payer, cramdown, filibuster reform, and ending tax breaks for oil and gas companies. There is an argument that Bennet is more electable. There is no argument that he is more progressive

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Bennet
is still pretty good on the issues. Personally I'm supporting Bennet. But this comes from a guy who supported Specter until Sestak actually had a chance so what should I know.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
I don't think Bennet is a Blue Dog. I think that he's probably better on the issues than at least half the Democratic caucus. I just don't think he's more progressive than Romanoff.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I seem to be mis-remembering some
blue-dogish comments from Romanoff then.  
[ Parent ]
Well, I remember that SSP was angry
about his views on EFCA way back when, in that he said that he favors it as a whole but was against card-check (Bennet, of course, is against EFCA, so we wondered why Romanoff wasn't trying to draw a contrast). He's since clarified that, unlike Bennet, he would certainly vote for cloture and he could probably be convinced to vote for the bill itself

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
That's all I care about
just vote for cloture for crying out loud at least.  I would have been happy if we got 51 votes for the HCR bill, but 60 for cloture should have been a done deal.  When we make cloture essentially be the vote for the bill, then it becomes that way and Romanoff just got a big plus in my book and I may even be supporting him now.  Someone finally gets that you can support cloture and vote down a bill, and he may even vote for it anyway so whatever.

Ha, even more of a reason why I'll laugh at Nelson losing in 2012.  He could have made the Dem base completely happy AND voted against the thing.

[ Parent ]
The
thing is would he have said that had he not had the primary? I think it is pretty clear he opposes it. I think he would have opposed cloture and would not be in favor of it period had he been the incumbent Senator not facing a primary. I could be wrong but it is very hard to judge a fairly new candidate before the primary. In a competitive primary you always move far to the left or the right, something is telling me Demon Sheep Lady is not going to be touting Sarah's endorsement from here on out. You do what you have to do to win. Romanoff only said what he said when it was made clear to him it would help him electoraly. I think it would be nearly impossible to honestly say with conviction whether Bennet or Romanoff are more progressive. Besides card check I have been very satisfied with Bennet, the public option letter in particular. I have said it a thousand times that they would probably have very similar voting records. Romanoff is Brunner part two.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
If he was Brunner
Bennett wouldn't be so nervous. Brunner didn't run TV ads, Brunner didn't lead weeks before the primary.
[ Parent ]
They
are not actually the same but they have similarities. Progressives love Romanoff and Romanoff has no money. If this is Romanoff verses Norton I think it would probably be Lean R but with Bennet it would be a tossup. Romanoff does not have the money to win statewide, he just does not. We would have to bail his ass out and spend much more than we should. I mean he had to freaking sell his home just to make it through the fing primary for goodness sakes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
"Since Clarified"
You here that a lot. Usually when someone says something they actually believe but did not mean to say. Would he have "clarified" it had he known it would provide no benefit politically? I seriously doubt it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Still, just having someone who
is on the record for having staked out progressive positions on the issues is very valuable. I would much rather have a senator who we have a video of speaking about the merits of single payer and cap and trade than one who has not. It's much easier then to pressure him from the left (even if still not fully effective).

Also, this tells us a lot about Romanoff's political mind. I mean, if even he's pandering, at least he's pandering to the right people. I'd much rather have a politician who runs to the left when under stress than the opposite.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Fair Enough
Although it is worth pointing out that Bob Kerry favored those things and I would not call him progressive.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
actually there is. Did you ever think that Romanoff might be for all of the things you said because he is facing a competitive primary? I see nothing to suggest Bennet would be any less progressive, I think they will hold very similar views in the Senate. Bennet has done many great progressive things as well, it could be because he is in a competitive primary, I will not deny that but the same can be said about Romanoff. Like I said above I think their voting records would be almost actually the and but assuming that Romanoff would be some progressive Alan Grayson like progressive hero is foolish. I am not saying that is what you are doing but I have heard that sort of argument. I am thinking that both Bennet and Romanoff will be center left, I doubt either will be all that liberal.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Exciting night tomorrow
Three legit tossup races in Colorado and perhaps even two in Connecticut.
And the GA-Gov GOP runoff

[ Parent ]
Yup. I'm salivating right now.
3 states with decent, very tight races.
[ Parent ]
MAK will probably pull it closer with Dayton than most think in MN-Gov
She's got the entire DFL ground game at her back.  Which kind of bugs me because instead of them working for the GE a little early, the entire thing is dedicated to MAK.
[ Parent ]
Connecticut
is going to be interesting. Lamont is now in a dead heat with Malloy after weathering a barrage of negative ads from the Malloy campaign and Fedele is within 8 points of Foley after attacking Foley on the air. Who said negative ads never worked?

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Who are the stronger candidates in CT?
Fedele can't fundraise, but he has ties to Rell, who is still popular. Foley has personal issues and can self-fund. However, wouldn't Fedele get matching funds if Lamont self-funds?  
[ Parent ]
Rell's popularity has faded
The most recent approval numbers I could find were Rasmussen from June, where she's down to 53-45.

Fedele has had trouble raising enough money even to get matching funds in the primary, and considering a similar statute was struck down in Florida as unconstitutional (thanks to free-spending Rick Scott), I doubt it would withstand a court challenge.

[ Parent ]
In Q-Pac's July 16th poll
[ Parent ]
GA-GOV
I don't know who to root for.  Split down the middle.  Various endorsements.  That is a race which I think could have its own blog.  
Deal is the weakest Republican candidate
if you are rooting for Barnes. Longtime Washington insider, ethical issues, north-Georgia political base, (which is one of the most reliably Republican areas), extremely conservative on all issues, weak fundraiser, he'd be the best candidate for Barnes to face long-term. With him I think this race will be a tossup on election day.  
[ Parent ]
Is it possible that
We don't know the results for days since it is mostly mail in ballots? Does anyone know if the ballots have to be postmarked by the 10th, or received by the 10th?  
CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet Retains Small Edge, Republicans Locked in Tossups | 25 comments

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